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At least 685 records · Page 38

A non-intrusive framework using acoustic signals and deep learning for boiling diagnostics in visual-limited environments

Accurate monitoring of boiling heat transfer is critical for safeguarding high-power systems operating in environments where conventional optical diagnostics are hindered by radiation fields or restricted visual accessibility. This study presents a non-intrusive framework that integrates hydroacoustic sensing with deep learning to infer near-wall boiling characteristics and enable predictive thermal assessment without visual access. In a prototypical subcooled flow-boiling facility representative of the Isotope Production Facility (IPF) at Los Alamos, hydrophones capture boiling-induced acoustic emissions that are transformed into background-removed Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) spectrograms. A convolutional neural network (CNN) then regresses heat flux, wall superheat, and key bubble parameters directly from these spectrograms. The CNN achieved predictive accuracy under nominal conditions and demonstrated robustness and generalization under acoustic noise for Signal-to-Noise Ratios (SNRs) down to approximately 0 dB. When integrated into an ANSYS CFX wall-boiling model, the acoustically inferred parameters reproduced boiling curve and critical heat flux (CHF) values consistent with image-based benchmarks. Furthermore, the model retained reliable performance under moderate variations in bulk temperature, flow rate, and hydrophone placement, confirming its generalizability across practical boundary conditions. These results demonstrate the feasibility of hydroacoustic-based deep learning as a viable path toward real-time, radiation-tolerant boiling diagnostics and predictive thermal safety assessment in inaccessible systems such as the IPF.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Release of Evaluated 235 U(n,f) Average Prompt Fission Neutron Multiplicities Including the CGMF Model

This report documents an evaluation of the average prompt fission neutron multiplicity, $\overline{v}_p$, of 235 U from 200 keV to 15 MeV that is a potential release candidate for the upcoming U.S. nuclear data library, ENDF/B-VIII.1. This evaluation had to be re-done from "scratch", as the input to the $\overline{v}_p$ evaluation of the previous library, ENDF/B-VIII.0, was lost. That means that all available experimental data were re-analyzed and uncertainties were re-estimated. Another major difference to ENDF/B-VIII.0 is that this evaluation includes model information from the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay code CGMF, while ENDF/B-VIII.0 is based purely on experimental data. CGMF links several fission quantities with each other; $\overline{v}_p$ is predicted by assumptions made on, e.g., pre-neutron emission yields as a function of mass, the total kinetic energy, or spin and parity of fission fragments. This allows to perform two types of validation for the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$: On the one hand, one can employ evaluated CGMF parameters obtained from fitting to experimental 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ to predict yields as a function of mass, the average total kinetic energy, or the mean energy of the prompt fission neutron spectrum. These model-predicted values can then be compared to experimental and evaluated data. The model-predicted fission-observable values using evaluated parameters obtained here are reasonably close to experimental data indicating the evaluated 235 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ are physical. On the other hand, one can validate 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ with respect to integral responses such as fast ICSBEP critical assemblies or LLNL pulsed spheres. LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra are minimally impacted by the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ as these experimental data are shape data and the $\overline{v}_p$ would mostly lead to a change in normalization of the data as the spheres are relatively thin (0.7 and 1.5 mean-free path) and, thus, mostly depend on 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 12-15 MeV. The change in the predicted effective neutron multiplication factor, k eff , of selected ICSBEP critical assemblies, however, is large compared to values using ENDF/B-VIII.0 and experimental k eff : The average bias is 108 pcm across all studied k eff values versus 12 pcm for ENDF/B-VIII.0. A reasonable performance in simulating keff (mean bias of 14 pcm) can be retained by tweaking 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 3-5 MeV, and combining it with a recent 235 U PFNS evaluation that is also a ENDF/B-VIII.1 release candidate.

235U↗

How Many Trip Requests Could We Support? An Activity-Travel Based Vehicle Scheduling Approach

In a world of ever-changing travel behavior and ever-increasing modal options, is vital to have integrated models that could capture the interactions between supply and demand layers of travel. Addressing this need, we propose three different versions of network representation and mathematical models for the activity-based vehicle routing problem to connect activity-travel graphs of passengers (demand layer) to spatio-temporal networks of vehicles (supply layer). Versions I and II are arc-based, while version III is path-based. In version I, we introduce the concept of activity-travel graphs for passengers. For vehicles, we construct space–time networks and add a new dimension, called “under-service state”, to track the execution status of trip requests at any location and time. In version II, we reduce the complexity of the network structure by eliminating the state dimension and some other modifications in the structure of the passengers’ and vehicles’ network. Although both versions can capture various behavioral constraints of the activity-based vehicle routing problem (e.g., mandatory and optimal activities, duration of activities, chain of activities, preferred starting and ending times of activities), due to the high level of complexity of the network structure, both versions can only solve small-sized problems. To tackle the computational complexity, we propose a path-based network representation in version III, and to make a balance between the disutility of passengers and vehicles, we present a tolled user equilibrium problem. Mathematical models are coded in C and GAMS and implemented on real-world Phoenix regional transportation network with more than 39 million trip requests, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed solution for the original and restricted master problems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Eco-PiNN: A Physics-informed Neural Network for Eco-toll Estimation

The eco-toll estimation problem quantifies the expected environmental cost (e.g., energy consumption, exhaust emissions) for a vehicle to travel along a path. This problem is important for societal applications such as eco-routing, which aims to find paths with the lowest exhaust emissions or energy need. The challenges of this problem are threefold: (1) the dependence of a vehicle's eco-toll on its physical parameters; (2) the lack of access to data with eco-toll information; and (3) the influence of contextual information (i.e. the connections of adjacent segments in the path) on the eco-toll of road segments. Prior work on eco-toll estimation has mostly relied on pure data-driven approaches and has high estimation errors given the limited training data. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Eco-toll estimation Physics-informed Neural Network framework (Eco-PiNN) using three novel ideas, namely, (1) a physics-informed decoder that integrates the physical laws governing vehicle dynamics into the network, (2) an attention-based contextual information encoder, and (3) a physics-informed regularization to reduce overfitting. Experiments on real-world heavy-duty truck data show that the proposed method can greatly improve the accuracy of eco-toll estimation compared with state-of-the-art methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Soft-Switching Solid-State Transformer With Reduced Conduction Loss

Solid-state transformers (SSTs) are a promising solution photovoltaic (PV), wind, traction, data center, battery energy storage system (BESS), and fast charging electric vehicle (EV) applications. The traditional SSTs are typically three-stage, i.e., hard-switching cascaded multilevel rectifiers and inverters with dual active bridge (DAB) converters, which leads to bulky passives, low efficiency, and high electromagnetic interference (EMI). This article proposes a new soft-switching solid-state transformer (S4T). The S4T has full-range zero-voltage switching (ZVS), electrolytic capacitor-less dc link, and controlled dv/dt, which reduces EMI. The S4T comprises two reverse-blocking current-source inverter (CSI) bridges, auxiliary branches for ZVS, and transformer magnetizing inductor as a reduced dc link with 60% ripple. Compared with the prior S4T, an effective change on the leakage inductance diode is made to reduce the number of the devices on the main power path by 20% for significant conduction loss saving and retain the same functionality of damping the resonance between the leakage and resonant capacitors and recycling trapped leakage energy. The conduction loss saving is crucial, being the dominating loss mechanism in SSTs. Importantly, the proposed single-stage SST not only holds the potential for high power density and high efficiency but also has full functionality, e.g., multiport dc loads integration, voltage regulation, and reactive power compensation, unlike the traditional single-stage matrix SST. The S4T can achieve single-stage isolated bidirectional dc–dc, ac–dc, dc–ac, or ac–ac conversion. It can also be configured input-series output-parallel (ISOP) in a modular way for medium-voltage (MV) grids. Hence, the S4T is a promising candidate for the SST. The full functionality, e.g., voltage buck–boost, multiport, etc., and the universality of the S4T for the dc–dc, dc–ac, and ac–ac conversion are verified through the simulations and experiments of two-port and three-port MV prototypes based on 3.3 kV SiC MOSFETs in dc–dc, dc–ac, and ac–ac modes at 2 kV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development and Application of a Data-Driven Methodology for Validation of Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Models

The document is the Final Technical Progress Report for the Nuclear Energy University Program’s Integrated Research Project (IRP) on “Development and Application of a Data-Driven Methodology for Validation of Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Models” that supports the LWR Sustainability Program’s RISMC R&D Pathway. The project goal is to develop and demonstrate a data-driven methodology for validation of advanced computer models used in nuclear power plant safety analysis. Specifically, the advanced computer models are those in the toolkit developed to support risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC), an integrated deterministic/probabilistic safety analysis methodology developed in the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWR-S) program. The report reflects the progress made towards the project’s stated goal by contributions by researchers and graduate students from universities, with support from researchers from national laboratories and industry companies. The project organization, effort coordination and technical implementation are summarized, followed by discussion of main findings, issues, and path forward. Selected chapters provide a more detailed description of tasks, approaches and respective findings and recommendations. Noteworthy are contributions that serve as guidelines for methodology development. It is also noted that this report is complemented by other milestone reports (as stand-alone deliverables) that provide detailed discussion of the technical developments. The project results have been documented in a number (12) dissertations and these, 50+ peer-reviewed publications in technical journals and conference proceedings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Induced microearthquakes predict permeability creation in the brittle crust

Predicting the evolution of permeability accurately during stimulation at the reservoir scale and at the resolution of individual fractures is essential to characterize the fluid transport and the reactive/heat-transfer characteristics of reservoirs where stress exerts significant control. Here, we develop a hybrid machine learning (ML) model to visualize in situ permeability evolution for an intermediate-scale (~10 m) hydraulic stimulation experiment. This model includes an ML model that was trained using the well history of flow rate and wellhead pressure and MEQ data from the first three stimulation episodes to predict average permeability from the statistical features of the MEQs alone for later episodes. Moreover, a physics-inspired model is integrated to estimate in situ fracture permeability spatially. This method relates fracture permeability to fracture dilation and scales dilation to the equivalent MEQ magnitude, according to laboratory observations. The seismic data are then applied to define incremental changes in permeability in both space and time. Our results confirm the excellent agreement between the ground truth and model-predicted permeability evolution. The resulting permeability map defines and quantifies flow paths in the reservoir with the averaged permeability comparing favorably with the ground truth of permeability.

induced seismicity↗

Advances in genetic tools for metabolic engineering of non-conventional yeasts

Non-conventional yeasts are emerging as powerful alternatives to Saccharomyces cerevisiae for metabolic engineering, owing to their innate stress tolerance, broad substrate utilization, and distinctive metabolic capabilities. These attributes position them as promising chassis for producing biofuels, pharmaceuticals, and specialty chemicals. This review synthesizes recent advances in genetic toolkits for four such species—Pichia kudriavzevii (Issatchenkia orientalis), Starmerella bombicola, Debaryomyces hansenii, and Pachysolen tannophilus—highlighting progress across plasmid architectures (episomal and integrative), identification of autonomously replicating sequences and centromeric elements, and the development of safe-harbor genomic loci. We summarize promoter and terminator libraries enabling tunable expression, the expansion of auxotrophic and antifungal selection markers with recycling strategies, and the rapid adaptation of CRISPR-based systems (Cas9 and Cas12a) with optimized guide RNA expression, multiplex editing, and approaches that enhance homologous recombination (e.g., KU70/80 disruption). We also review landing-pad platforms for modular, repeated integrations and transposon-based tools (e.g., piggyBac) that facilitate multigene pathway assembly. Collectively, these innovations are accelerating design-build-test-learn cycles and enabling precise, scalable engineering of non-conventional yeasts. Remaining challenges—including limited species-specific episomal systems, variable transformation efficiencies, genome-stability concerns, and alternative codon usage—define clear priorities for future toolkit development. Together, these advances and open needs chart a path toward robust, sustainable biomanufacturing using diverse non-conventional yeast chassis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Achieving superior mechanical properties: Tailoring multicomponent microstructure in AISI 9254 spring steel through a two-stage Q&P process and nanoscale carbide integration

In the pursuit of lightweight, durable steel, we have successfully developed a multicomponent structure in AISI 9254 spring steel using a two-stage quenching and partitioning (Q&P) process. The primary objective of this process was to engineer an optimized microstructure consisting of nanobainite, martensite, and nano-carbides. Utilizing the insights gained from the results of advanced techniques such as X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and atom probe tomography (APT) performed on the as-received AISI 9254 spring steel, we refined the quenching and partitioning (Q&P) path, leading to the successful establishment of a bainitic transformation for superior mechanical properties. Our tensile tests revealed a high yield strength (≈ 1600 ± 25 MPa) and ultimate tensile strength (≈ 1850 ± 50 MPa), along with considerable elongation (≈ 11.15 ± 0.25%). We also identified that pre-formed martensite lath defects and high silicon content play crucial roles during the Q&P process, preventing carbide coalescence and increasing strain-hardening capacity. Finally, this study demonstrates the potential of a Q&P process to generate high-strength, ductile steel for automotive and aerospace applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Double-crowned 2D semiconductor nanoplatelets with bicolor power-tunable emission

Nanocrystals (NCs) are now established building blocks for optoelectronics and their use as down converters for large gamut displays has been their first mass market. NC integration relies on a combination of green and red NCs into a blend, which rises post-growth formulation issues. A careful engineering of the NCs may enable dual emissions from a single NC population which violates Kasha’s rule, which stipulates that emission should occur at the band edge. Thus, in addition to an attentive control of band alignment to obtain green and red signals, non-radiative decay paths also have to be carefully slowed down to enable emission away from the ground state. Here, we demonstrate that core/crown/crown 2D nanoplatelets (NPLs), made of CdSe/CdTe/CdSe, can combine a large volume and a type-II band alignment enabling simultaneously red and narrow green emissions. Moreover, we demonstrate that the ratio of the two emissions can be tuned by the incident power, which results in a saturation of the red emission due to non-radiative Auger recombination that affects this emission much stronger than the green one. Finally, we also show that dual-color, power tunable, emission can be obtained through an electrical excitation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hydrologic response of artificially drained agricultural watersheds: insights from high-resolution integrated surface/subsurface simulations

Artificial drainage systems comprising subsurface networks of perforated pipes (tile drains) and engineered surface ditches are widely used to remove excess water from poorly drained agricultural regions. Artificial drainage lowers the water table by design but also has inadvertent effects on the watershed-scale hydrologic response with important implications for flood risk and nutrient exports. We investigated the effects of tile drains on watershed-scale hydrologic response in the Portage River, OH, Watershed using a high-resolution physically based integrated surface/subsurface hydrology model with recently developed capabilities to represent artificial drainage. Tile drains were found to enhance streamflow during times of low flow, generally consistent with previous studies. Streamflow flashiness was found to have a non-monotonic dependence on tile spacing with a minimum at intermediate spacings (∼50 m). Flashiness and the event hydrographs for small tile spacing were similar to the situation with no tiles, but flow paths from farm to stream were very different for those two end member cases, emphasizing the limitations of the stream hydrograph in characterizing hydrologic response. For typical tile spacings, peak flow can either be enhanced or attenuated by the presence of tiles, depending on the size of the event and the antecedent meteorological conditions. Tiles enhance peak flow when the event is below a threshold of ∼25 mm or when events arrive in dry conditions. Peak flow is reduced by tiles when events are large and arrive in conditions that are not overly dry. The dependence on event size and antecedent conditions is explained by differences in available storage and flow paths to the streams. These results provide additional insights into how tile drainage modulates event-scale hydrologic response, an important control on flood generation mechanisms and nutrient exports.

agricultural watershed↗

Non-neutral plasma manipulation techniques in development of a high-capacity positron trap

Preliminary experiments have been performed toward the development of a multi-cell Penning–Malmberg trap for the storage of large numbers of positrons (≥10 10 e + ). We introduce the master-cell test trap and the diagnostic tools for first experiments with electrons. The usage of a phosphor screen to measure the z-integrated plasma distribution and the number of confined particles is demonstrated, as well as the trap alignment to the magnetic field ( B = 3.1 T) using the m = 1 diocotron mode. The plasma parameters and expansion are described along with the autoresonant excitation of the diocotron mode using rotating dipole fields and frequency chirped sinusoidal drive signals. We analyze the reproducibility of the excitation and use these findings to settle on the path for the next generation multi-cell test device.

Singer, M.↗

Solar Receiver with Integrated Thermal Storage for a Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Power Cycle

This project endeavors to design and demonstrate an integrated CSP system that meets the Department of Energy’s 6¢/kW-hr LCOE goal [1]. This design is based on the 10 MWe Supercritical Transformational Electric Power (STEP) engine specifications, but adaptable to any sCO 2 power module up to 10 MW e . The enabling technology to be tested is a new class of metal hydride based thermal energy storage materials which can store thermal energy in the hydrogen bonds between the metal hydride and hydrogen. This thermochemical energy storage solution provides a much greater energy density than sensible and latent energy storage enabling an integrated system design that closely linked the metal hydride to the power block. This allows the entire system to be mounted up tower to provide cost reductions. A novel metal hydride, capable of operating above 760 °C, was developed during the course of this project and thoroughly tested at a lab scale. The material’s hydrogen capacity, reaction enthalpy, thermal conductivity, and cyclic stability were measured. A demonstration test article was built that can store 2kWh of thermal energy and was coupled to Brayton Energy’s CO 2 loop where the performance of the metal hydride under commercial conditions was measured. An integrated model was created that uses the inputs from all the different sub-models in order to return an overall system LCOE using SAM. This project greatly advanced metal hydride based thermochemical energy storage technology and demonstrated its use. Previously there were no metal hydrides which were capable of operating at the proposed temperature limits (760°C), there is now a high temperature metal hydride with documented performance/stability and a path for low-cost production. Additionally, the metal hydride was tested at a scale >650x larger than what had previously been done in the lab. While not at commercial scale, it was an excellent demonstration of the technology and provided knowledge that can be leveraged for other applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Addressing wellbore integrity and thief zone permeability using microbially-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP): A field demonstration

Microbially-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) is an emerging biotechnology for wellbore integrity applications including sealing defects in wellbore cement and modifying the permeability of rock formations. The goal of this field demonstration was to characterize a failed waterflood injection well and provide proof of principle that MICP can reduce permeability in the presence of oil using conventional oilfield fluid delivery methods. Here we compared well logs performed at the time the well was drilled with ultrasonic logs, sonic cement evaluation, and temperature logs conducted after the well failed. Analysis of these logs suggested that, rather than entering the target waterflood formation, injectate was traveling through defects in the well cement to a higher permeability sandstone layer above the target formation. Sporosarcina pasteurii cultures and urea-calcium media were delivered 2290 ft (698 m) below ground surface using a 3.75 gal (14.2 L) slickline dump bailer to promote mineralization in the undesired flow paths. By Day 6 and after 25 inoculum and 49 calcium media injections, the injectivity [gpm/psi] had decreased by approximately 70%. This demonstration shows that 1) common well logs can be used to identify scenarios where MICP can be employed to reduce system permeability, remediate leakage pathways, and improve waterflood efficiency, and 2) MICP can occur in the presence of hydrocarbons.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The State of Virtual Healthcare

In recent years, telehealth or telemedicine has become an integral component of health systems. During the COVID-19 pandemic, telehealth became the primary route of treatment for patients and doctors. The goals of telehealth are to make healthcare more accessible to patients who have limited mobility, time, or transportation options and those who live in rural or isolated communities. Telehealth aims to improve coordination and care between healthcare teams and their patients. While addressing accessibility, telehealth sets health systems on a path to meet their decarbonization and energy reduction goals. The document provides insights and best practices for telehealth, including carbon reduction, space utilization, equitable access, and technology.

Better Buildings, telehealth, carbon footprint↗

A caloritronics-based Mott neuristor

Abstract Machine learning imitates the basic features of biological neural networks at a software level. A strong effort is currently being made to mimic neurons and synapses with hardware components, an approach known as neuromorphic computing. While recent advances in resistive switching have provided a path to emulate synapses at the 10 nm scale, a scalable neuron analogue is yet to be found. Here, we show how heat transfer can be utilized to mimic neuron functionalities in Mott nanodevices. We use the Joule heating created by current spikes to trigger the insulator-to-metal transition in a biased VO 2 nanogap. We show that thermal dynamics allow the implementation of the basic neuron functionalities: activity, leaky integrate-and-fire, volatility and rate coding. This approach could enable neuromorphic hardware to take full advantage of the rapid advances in memristive synapses, allowing for much denser and complex neural networks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗