Limits on Runoff Episode Duration for Early Mars: Integrating Lake Hydrology and Climate Models
Fluvio-lacustrine features on the martian surface attest to a climate that was radically different in the past. Since climate models have difficulty sustaining a liquid hydrosphere at the surface, multiple cycles of runoff episodes may have characterized the ancient Mars climate. A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these runoff-producing episodes? Here we use morphometric measurements from newly identified coupled lake systems, containing both an open- and a closed-basin lake (n=7). We combined hydrological balances with precipitation outputs from climate models, and found that breaching runoff episodes likely lasted 102−105yr; other episodes may have been shorter but could not be longer. Runoff episode durations are model-dependent and spatiallyvariable, and no27climate model scenario can satisfy a unique duration for all coupled systems. In the near future, these quantitative constraints on early Mars lake persistence may be tested through in situ observations from Perseverance rover. Plain Language Summary Ancient river and lake beds on the martian surface point to a climate that was radically different in the past, unlike the dry, cold desert that Mars is today. It experienced significant liquid water flowing across the surface (i.e., ‘runoff’) and hosted long-lived bodies of water (lakes and seas). However, scientists that generate models to simulate the ancient Mars climate have difficulty sustaining this proposed liquid water cycle at the surface. One possible hypothesis is that multiple cycles of individual liquid water episodes may have characterized the ancient martian climate (i.e. runoff episodes). A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these individual runoff-producing episodes? Here we use an approach that takes advantage of unique martian lake system, ‘coupled’ lake systems, and their shapes. We combined these measurements with precipitation results from previous climate models, and found that runoff episodes likely lasted 100-10,000 years, requiring a global climate mechanism that generated repeated cycles of this duration. Ultimately, our results can be tested through observations made by NASA’s Perseverance rover, shedding light on the uninterrupted duration of surface water on Mars and its potential to host life in the past.