Fast robust power system dynamic state estimation using model transformation
Not Available
Wang, Xueyuan↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “online”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids
Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Normal or abnormal? Machine learning for the leakage detection in carbon sequestration projects using pressure field data
The international commitments for atmospheric carbon reduction will require a rapid increase in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. The key to any successful CCS project lies in the long term storage and prevention of leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In addition to being a greenhouse gas, CO 2 leaks reaching the surface can accumulate in low-lying areas resulting in a serious health risk. Among several alternatives, some of the more promising CCS storage formations are depleted oil and gas reservoirs, where the reservoirs had good geological seals prior to hydrocarbon extraction. With more CCS wells coming online, it is imperative to implement permanent, automated monitoring tools. We apply machine learning models to automate the leakage detection process in carbon storage reservoirs using rates of (CO 2 ) injection and pressure data measured by simple harmonic pulse testing (HPT). To validate the feasibility of this machine learning based workflow, we use data from HPT experiments carried out in the Cranfield oil field, Mississippi, USA. The data consist of a series of pulse tests conducted with baseline parameters and with an artificially introduced leak. Here, in this study, we pose the leakage detection task as an anomaly detection problem where deviation from the predicted behavior indicates leaks in the reservoir. Results show that different machine learning architectures such as multi-layer feed forward network, Long Short-Term Memory, and convolutional neural network are able to identify leakages and can provide early warning. These warnings can then be used to take remedial measures.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Simulated CO 2 storage efficiency factors for saline formations of various lithologies and depositional environments using new experimental relative permeability data
Saline formations are attractive geologic reservoirs for permanent carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage. Here, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) has worked to develop and refine methods and tools for the calculation of CO 2 storage potential in subsurface reservoirs. DOE-NETL's CO 2 -SCREEN provides an online tool for executing these storage methods. CO 2 storage efficiency terms are input parameters in DOE-NETL's methods and equations embedded in the CO 2 -SCREEN, which assesses pore space available for CO 2 storage. In this work, a modeling workflow was initiated to refine two CO 2 storage efficiency terms - volumetric displacement (E V ) and microscopic displacement (E d ). The models are based on new experimental relative permeability data that are specific to homogenous lithology and depositional environments of key subsurface saline formations targeted for CO 2 storage. In future work, heterogenous features will be added to this initial modeling effort to update efficiency factors as described in DOE-NETL's methods and CO 2 -SCREEN tool. E V accounts for the volume utilized in the reservoir under the areal plume, while E d accounts for saturation values in the plume to assess efficiency of CO 2 storage at the pore scale. The results of this work are significant in that prior values were based on a limited geologically non-specific relative permeability data set that were collected prior to 2009. Specifically, we applied numerical simulations using TOUGH3 models to update CO 2 storage efficiency values for supercritical CO 2 injection into brine-saturated reservoirs for three lithologies (clastics, limestone, dolomite) and six depositional environments (Marginal Marine, Strand Plain, Deltaic Complex Fluvial, Aeolian, Shallow Marine, and Reef) that have a high potential for geologic CO 2 storage. Experimental relative permeability data in cores from these environments were utilized in the models with corresponding rock type/sedimentary environment. Results of this study showed that dolomite followed by limestone generated higher ranges of storage efficiency compared to clastics. The updated values provided a tighter efficiency range for clastics, lower P 10 but higher P 90 range for limestone, and higher P 10 and P 90 for dolomite. In general, tighter reservoirs with relatively low permeability and porosity were associated with higher E V and E d , showing efficient reservoir and pore utilization in these scenarios. High reservoir pressure and temperature associated with increasing depth increased the E V , and high CO 2 injection rates resulted in increases in E V and E d , while the impact of permeability anisotropy was minimal after the 30-year injection period.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Benchmarking CO₂ storage simulations: Results from the 11 th Society of Petroleum Engineers Comparative Solution Project
The 11 th Society of Petroleum Engineers Comparative Solution Project (shortened SPE11 herein) benchmarked simulation tools for geological carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage. A total of 45 groups from leading research institutions and industry across the globe signed up to participate, with 18 ultimately contributing valid results that were included in the comparative study reported here. This paper summarizes the SPE11 results. A comprehensive introduction and qualitative discussion of the submitted data are provided, together with an overview of online resources for accessing the full depth of data. A global metric for analyzing the relative distance between submissions is proposed and used to conduct a quantitative analysis of the submissions. This analysis attempts to statistically resolve the key aspects influencing the variability between submissions. The study shows that the major qualitative variation between the submitted results is related to thermal effects, dissolution-driven convective mixing, and resolution of facies discontinuities. Moreover, a strong dependence on grid resolution is observed across all three versions of the SPE11. However, our quantitative analysis suggests that the observed variations are predominantly influenced by factors not documented in the technical responses provided by the participants. We therefore identify that unreported variations due to human choices within the process of setting up, conducting, and reporting on the simulations underlying each SPE11 submission are at least as impactful as the computational choices reported.
Nordbotten, Jan M. [Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Norw↗
Effects of gas purity on backgrounds of collision reaction cell-equipped MC-ICP-MS
The advent of multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) instruments equipped with collision reaction cells (CRCs) facilitates interference removal/mitigation via online gas phase separations. This approach has proven effective for high intensity ion beams measured on Faraday collectors; however, it has been observed that introduction of gas in the CRC can result in significant background signals relative to the more sensitive ion counters. These backgrounds hinder use of these instruments for low level concentration and isotopic ratio measurements when employing a reaction gas. Here, this work directly evaluates the effect of gas purity on backgrounds of CRC-MC-ICP-MS instruments. Introducing high-purity research grade O 2 (99.999%) into the CRC produces complex background spectra with intensities >10 4 cps observed at most masses across the measured mass range (7-300 m / z ). Some features of the observed spectra (i.e., positive mass defects) can be attributed to molecular compounds comprised of significant hydrogen. Additionally, some specific molecular species can be identified (i.e., MoO x H y + ) and appear to be derived from molybdenum rods comprising the CRC. Further purifying the gas reduces the intensity of these backgrounds by several orders of magnitude, to <10 2 cps in many cases, and reduces complexity of the resulting spectra. This reduction in background appears to be in part driven by removal of impurities (i.e., H 2 O) from the gas. This work demonstrates that additional purification of reaction gases prior to introduction into the CRC significantly reduces backgrounds detected, potentially expanding the utility of CRC-MC-ICP-MS for making low level measurements using inline gas phase ion separations.
Schlieder, Tyler D. [Pacific Northwest National La↗
Initial Feasibility and Clinical Implementation of Daily MR-Guided Adaptive Head and Neck Cancer Radiation Therapy on a 1.5T MR-Linac System: Prospective R-IDEAL 2a/2b Systematic Clinical Evaluation of Technical Innovation
This prospective study is, to our knowledge, the first report of daily adaptive radiation therapy (ART) for head and neck cancer (HNC) using a 1.5T magnetic resonance imaging-linear accelerator (MR-linac) with particular focus on safety and feasibility and dosimetric results of an online rigid registration-based adapt to position (ATP) workflow.
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
EPIsembleVis: A geo-visual analysis and comparison of the prediction ensembles of multiple COVID-19 models
In this work, we present EPIsembleVis, a web-based comparative visual analysis tool for evaluating the consistency of multiple COVID-19 prediction models. Our approach analyzes a collection of COVID-19 predictions from different epidemiological models as an ensemble and utilizes two metrics to quantify model performance. These metrics include (a) prediction uncertainty (represented as the dispersion of predictions in each ensemble) and (b) prediction error (calculated by comparing individual model predictions with the recorded data). Through an interactive visual interface, our approach provides a data-driven workflow for (a) selecting and constructing the COVID-19 model prediction ensemble based on the spatiotemporal overlap of available predictions of multiple epidemiological models, (b) quantifying the model performance using both the uncertainty of each model prediction ensemble, and the error of each ensemble member that represents individual model predictions, and (c) visualizing the spatiotemporal variability in the projection performance of individual models using a suite of novel ensemble visualization techniques, such as the data availability map, a spatiotemporal textured-tile calendar, multivariate rose chart, and time-series leaflet glyph. We demonstrate the capability of our ensemble visual interface through a case study that investigates the performance of weekly COVID-19 predictions, which are provided through the COVID-19 Forecast Hub UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence [47] for the United States and United States Territories. The EPIsembleVis tool is implemented using open-source web technologies and adaptive system design, rendering it interoperable with Elasticsearch and Kibana for automatically ingesting COVID-19 predictions from online repositories, and it is generalizable for analyzing worldwide projections from more epidemiological models.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Improved lipid analysis using a 2D-LC-MS system with a novel injection procedure
The aim of this study was to improve analysis of nonpolar lipidomics sample extracts using reversed phase (RP) chromatography. A 4/3/3 (v/v/v) mixture of methanol/methyl tert-butyl ether/chloroform (MeOH/MTBE/CHCl 3 , MMC) was chosen for sample extraction solvent based on its proven extraction capability for several lipid classes. To avoid carry over, loss of analytes and peak distortion the loops and all capillaries of the presented LC system were flushed and filled up with methanol until the analytical column. Here, the choice of methanol was due to its weak elution strength and being infinitely miscible with MMC and several other nonpolar solvents. This allowed injection of a 100 μl sample that was 20 μl nonpolar extraction solvent diluted fivefold with methanol. All lipids of 25 lipid classes were transferred quantitatively to the column head where the online dilution of methanol was carried out with aqueous eluent for focusing the lipid analytes. The weak elution strength of methanol prevented peak distortions. The consecutive reversed phase elution resulted in remarkably narrow peaks (full width at half maximum was 0.07–0.08 min typically) and enhanced sensitivity (limit of detection usually in sub nM region) because of increased sample injection volume and narrow peaks. Calibration and quality control samples made by diluting commercial lipid standards 200–50000 times confirmed the applicability of this approach both for targeted lipid quantification and for untargeted quantitative comparison of lipids from different sources.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Data-driven models of nonautonomous systems
Nonautonomous dynamical systems are characterized by time-dependent inputs, which complicates the discovery of predictive models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the state variables of quantities of interest from their temporal snapshots. When dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to infer a linear model, this difficulty manifests itself in the need to approximate the time-dependent Koopman operators. Our approach is to approximate the original nonautonomous system with a modified system derived via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs. The modified system comprises a sequence of local parametric systems, which are subsequently approximated by a parametric surrogate model using the DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) framework. The offline step of DRIPS relies on DMD to build a linear surrogate model, endowed with reduced-order bases for the observables mapped from training data. The online step interpolates on suitable manifolds to construct a sequence of iterative parametric surrogate models; the target/test parameter points on these manifolds are specified by a local parameterization of the test time-dependent inputs. Here, we use numerical experimentation to demonstrate the robustness of our method and compare its performance with that of deep neural networks.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning
We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Regional surrogates for predictive control of digital twins
Digital twins of complex systems must involve a model that is fast, generalizable, and usable for real-time control. For example, high-fidelity nonlinear multiphysics simulations can capture laser-material interactions, but are too slow for optimization or model predictive control (MPC). Reduced-order models, used to accelerate such computation, frequently fail to generalize to unseen inputs or control states. We show theoretically that this failure is intrinsic, i.e., that a learned model is non-unique outside the sampled subspace when its low-rank structure arises from limited excitation and clustered eigenvalues, rather than from a user-imposed truncation alone. Motivated by this result, we propose a control-ready regional surrogate-construction framework for both autonomous and nonautonomous dynamics; it employs Koopman lifting to represent nonlinearities, while preserving spatial locality. We illustrate our approach by constructing a control-ready surrogate for the digital twin of a thermal component of additive-manufacturing process. Our surrogate, localized in space through a von Neumann stencil, is learned from noisy high-fidelity simulations that emulate thermal-camera images collected during the manufacturing. It is linear in thermo-physically augmented states so that MPC reduces to a convex quadratic program. The surrogate requires no online correction, generalizes to unseen scan paths and power profiles of the laser, and is more than three orders of magnitude faster than a finite-difference solver. Furthermore, when the MPC sequence computed on the digital twin is applied to this solver, closed-loop temperature regulation is recovered, showing that the surrogate preserves control-relevant input-output behavior.
Data-driven model↗
First principles optimization of plutonium electrorefining
Herein this work presents a means of controlling plutonium electrorefining at a maximum rate regardless of equipment setup through the derivation of power supply current and potential governing equations for normal and off-normal operations. The governing equations are demonstrated by electrorefining surrogate materials. A simple linear current sweeping method was used to determine the maximum electrorefining current for the surrogate system. This method can be used to develop autonomous process optimization, real-time online processing monitoring, and real-time process endpoint detection. Ultimately, this research provides the foundation to optimize the liquid metal electrorefining rate to decrease the time needed to the physical limit for the process.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
PythonFOAM: In-situ data analyses with OpenFOAM and Python
Here, we outline the development of a general-purpose Python-based data analysis tool for OpenFOAM. Our implementation relies on the construction of OpenFOAM applications that have bindings to data analysis libraries in Python. Double precision data in OpenFOAM is cast to a NumPy array using the NumPy C-API and Python modules may then be used for arbitrary data analysis and manipulation on flow-field information. We highlight how the proposed wrapper may be used for an in-situ online singular value decomposition (SVD) implemented in Python and accessed from the OpenFOAM solver PimpleFOAM. Here, 'in-situ' refers to a programming paradigm that allows for a concurrent computation of the data analysis on the same computational resources utilized for the partial differential equation solver. In addition, to demonstrate parallel deployments, we deploy a distributed SVD, which collects snapshot data across the ranks of a distributed simulation to compute the global left singular vectors. Crucially, both OpenFOAM and Python share the same message passing interface (MPI) communicator for this deployment which allows Python objects and functions to exchange NumPy arrays across ranks. Subsequently, we provide scaling assessments of this distributed SVD on multiple nodes of Intel Broadwell and KNL architectures for canonical test cases such as the large eddy simulations of a backward facing step and a channel flow at friction Reynolds number of 395. Finally, we demonstrate the deployment of a deep neural network for compressing the flow-field information using an autoencoder to demonstrate an ability to use state-of-the-art machine learning tools in the Python ecosystem.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) for collection of multivariate time series data: Applications to COVID-19 data
Time series anomaly detection is frequently used to identify extreme behaviors within a single time series. Identifying extreme trends in relation to a collection of other time series, on the other hand, is frequently of significant interest, such as in public health policy, social justice, and pandemic propagation. Using concepts from large deviations theory , we propose an algorithm that can scale to large collections of time series data. This paper expands on the LAD algorithm presented in Guggilam et al. (2022). The proposed algorithm is an online anomaly detection method for identifying anomalies in a collection of multivariate time series that takes advantage of the algorithm’s ability to scale to high-dimensional data. We show how the proposed Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) algorithm can be used to identify regions with anomalous trends in COVID-19 cases, deaths, biweekly growth rates, vaccinations, and fatality rates. Several of the observed anomalous trends are associated with regions that have demonstrated poor response to the COVID pandemic.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Physics-aware adaptive checkpointing with shadow systems for nonlinear PDE simulations
Large-scale simulations of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) that exhibit strongly transient behavior and pattern-forming dynamics produce enormous amounts of data, which, even with modern storage systems, cannot be stored for later curation. Current I/O strategies either write dense time series of snapshots, which is often prohibitive in I/O and storage, or store a few checkpoints that enable restart but incur expensive recomputation cost and provide no control over post-restart error growth, especially when lossy compression is used. Moreover, most, if not all, existing strategies take no account of the actual physical state of the system. Here, we present a simple physics-aware I/O framework in which a low-cost shadow system adaptively triggers lossy checkpoints when the shadow system deviates from the fine-scale simulation. The shadow system can be a coarsened replica of the fine-scale simulation that evolves concurrently. This means that checkpoints are taken based on the physical state of the system: fewer checkpoints are triggered when the system is quiescent while more are taken when the system undergoes a rapid change. This type of behavior is observed in many systems such as Brusselator and FitzHugh–Nagumo. We illustrate that our framework maintains stable restarts, keeps fine-scale restart errors bounded by shadow errors, and reconstructs the time history with significantly lower error and storage than interpolating fixed-interval snapshots, with low-cost shadow replay and modest online synchronization overhead.
Gong, Qian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000235704142)↗
Pyrolysis of high-density polyethylene: Degradation behaviors, kinetics, and product characteristics
Pyrolysis is a promising technology for converting plastic waste into valuable raw materials while offering a potential solution to the global plastic pollution crisis. In this study, the thermal pyrolysis of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is investigated in a drop tube reactor under nearly isothermal conditions. The impact of reaction temperature and gas/volatile residence time on carbon conversion and product distribution is examined across a range of 500–900°C and 3.6–32.2s, respectively. Non-condensable gas products detected by online mass spectrometry are H 2 , CH 4 , C 2 H 4 , C 2 H 6 , C 3 H 6 , and C 3 H 8 . At elevated temperatures and prolonged residence time, H 2 yield reaches as high as 8.6 wt% of the initial HDPE mass due to intensified cracking reactions of C 2 –C 3 hydrocarbons and long-chain aliphatic compounds. Consequently, pyrolysis tars consist mainly of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) with 5–7 rings, accompanied by visible coke deposition within the reactor. HDPE decomposition to volatiles is an endothermic process and it is complete at a temperature between 492°C and 525°C, depending on the heating rate employed, from non-isothermal thermogravimetric analysis and differential scanning calorimetry (TGA-DSC) measurements. The thermal degradation of HDPE pellets follows the two-dimensional nucleation growth model for conversion levels up to 0.8 with an apparent activation energy of 259–270 kJ/mol and a pre-exponential factor of 4.83 × 10 17 –1.37 × 10 19 min -1 , determined from various isoconversional methods such as Flynn-Wall-Ozawa (FWO), Kissinger-Akahira-Sunose (KAS), and Starink, along with Criado's master plots. Further, these findings provide valuable insights into optimizing process parameters and refining reactor design for pyrolysis, which can be integrated with gasification and reforming processes to enhance hydrogen production on a larger scale.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Fast shared-memory streaming multilevel graph partitioning
In this report we show that a fast parallel graph partitioner can benefit many applications by reducing data transfers. The online methods for partitioning graphs have to be fast and they often rely on simple one-pass streaming algorithms, while the offline methods for partitioning graphs contain more involved algorithms and the most successful methods in this category belong to the multilevel approaches. In this work, we assess the feasibility of using streaming graph partitioning algorithms within the multilevel framework. Our end goal is to come up with a fast parallel offline multilevel partitioner that can produce competitive cutsize quality. We rely on a simple but fast and flexible streaming algorithm throughout the entire multilevel framework. This streaming algorithm serves multiple purposes in the partitioning process: a clustering algorithm in the coarsening, an effective algorithm for the initial partitioning, and a fast refinement algorithm in the uncoarsening. Its simple nature also lends itself easily for parallelization. The experiments on various graphs show that our approach is on the average up to 5.1x faster than the multi-threaded MeTiS, which comes at the expense of only 2x worse cutsize.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗