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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗
DOE OSTI2020

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Report for Task 13: Functional Specification Report(Deliverable D9))

This report provides functional specification for the AGGREGATE project and associated modules/ tools being developed for outage management and restoration with the Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). This report also provide initial validation of the developed modules and performance metrics. The AGGREGATE team at this stage has been collaborating with General Electric (GE) and Seattle City Light (SCL) to move forward from offline validation to online validation using commercial advanced distribution management system (ADMS). Hence, the functional specifications documents, which outline the requirement of various modules, is provided to address the integration of the modules, including 1) real-time model update and aggregation tools module, 2) observability and controllability metric module, 3) fault location solution service restoration module, 4) transmission-distribution co-simulation module, and 5) advanced distribution management system module. integration of different AGGREGATE modules and functional specification provides the foundation for online multi-scenario testing using SCL system model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

RCT Continuing Training (Q3, 2021) [Slides]

Radiological Control Technicians (RCTs) serve an important part in the mission of Los Alamos National Laboratory by monitoring the diverse radiological conditions at the Lab. The role of RCTs is critical in maintaining personnel safety from radiological hazards and in keeping occupational radiation exposure As low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA). This training content consists of two parts: viewing an online lecture and completing the associated exercise guide. The online lecture, presented here, will review performing job coverage and all of the necessary steps associated with it.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable/Secure Cooperative Algorithms and Framework for Extremely-high Penetration Solar Integration (SolarExPert) (Final Technical Report)

This SolarExPert project has developed a Sustainable Grid Platform (SGP) with scalable architecture of distributed control and optimization. The SGP consists of the following major functions: 1) an advanced grid architecture with hierarchical and distributed communication and control, combined with the OpenFMB standard and implemented on the Multi-Agent OpenDSS (MA-OpenDSS) platform; 2) an online distributed stochastic optimal power flow; 3) an online distributed system state estimation algorithm; 4) the distributed Volt/VAR optimization and frequency control algorithms; 5) the distributed distribution system restoration strategy. The developed SGP together with advanced functions are tested in 1 million (1M)-node distribution system on the MA-OpenDSS platform. Furthermore, the models and algorithms are tested in 100,000-node system HiL simulation, and also in P-HiL implementation with 100 physical devices. The developed functions haven been validated and tested on the selected actual distribution feeder with the data collected from the field of Maui Meadows in Hawaii. The distributed PV hosting capacities with cooperative Volt/VAR and Volt/VAR/Watt control are estimated and compared to provide recommendations for customers and the utility company.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition” provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2020. Highlights of this year’s update include: A record of nearly 9.6 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2020, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 38.7 GWAC across 43 states. 89% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2020 uses single-axis tracking. Median installed project costs declined to $\$$1.4/WAC (or $\$$1.1/WDC) in 2020. Project-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$$34/MWh in 2020 ($\$$28/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have stagnated more recently. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average just above $\$$20/MWh (levelized). In 2020, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) exceeded average wholesale prices in 12 of the 17 balancing authorities analyzed (including 4 of the 7 independent system operators across the United States). Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata for more than 150 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. At the end of 2020, there were at least 460 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 160 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

October 2021 Operational Highlights

Accessioned 254 boxes of weapons-production-related records from the shuttered Denver Federal Records Center into the NSRC’s Rocky Flats collections. An additional 4,000 weapons testing documents have been uploaded with metadata onto the Lab’s classified online repository called the Online Vault. As a result, approximately 50 percent of the field testing collection is now available electronically.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

RCT Continuing Training 1st Quarter 2022 Presentation Transcript

Welcome to RCT Continuing Training. This training will discuss the process for: collecting and evaluating radiological air samples and submitting samples to HPAL. This training consists of viewing the online presentation and completing its associated exercise guide, Utrain number 53850. It is recommended that you have the exercise guide with you while following along with the online training

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

January 2022 Operational Highlights

The Indexing Lab is now complete and includes classified and unclassified computers, safes and work stations. Staff capture metadata and catalog materials, including classified reports, directors’ correspondence and Rocky Flats materials to ensure the holdings are discoverable and retrievable. Access protocols were updated for products related to the LANL Annual Assessment in the Online Vault (OLV) classified repository. The Annual Assessment is a yearly analysis of the weapons systems in the nation’s nuclear stockpile. The Standardization Quality Assessment (SQA) for the Online Vault (OLV) classified repository was completed and contained no findings. Beta testing, or customer validation, began for the metrics database that generates metrics reports and visualizations from NSRC customer projects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

AOI.1 Application of Artificial Intelligence techniques enabling coal fired power plants the ability to achieve higher efficiency, improved availability, and increased reliability of their operations (Final Report)

During this effort, SparkCognition with support from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was tasked with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to improve the reliability, efficiency, and safety of operations at a coal-fired plant. By implementing AI techniques, like machine learning (ML), it is believed that operators can leverage existing data sources to gain more insights such as advanced warning of machine degradation. With enough lead time, a reliability engineer can take action to minimize, or even avoid, impact to production. To complete this work effort, SparkCognition developed and refined an ML-based model using sensor data for a Steam Turbine unit at a host site. The models were deployed in an online, web-based solution that allows users to visualize model outputs and supporting data. The final solution, based on SparkCognition’s proprietary software platform called SparkPredict®, was shared with EPRI who completed an online evaluation of results to determine the solution’s ability to detect actionable events.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

PNNL ARENA Cable Motor Test Bed Update

A major focus of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Cable Nondestructive Examination (NDE) 2021 research is to acquire new equipment and integrate it with existing NDE instruments for a cable motor test bed which has been dubbed the Accelerated and Real Time Experimental Nodal Analysis or “ARENA”. All the primary components have been received and are being staged in the 2410 Stevens building on PNNL’s Richland campus. Building modifications to support a plug-in 480VAC receptacle have been completed and details of the system operating procedure (SOP) are in review. The approved SOP is required before the system is energized but is expected before July 2021. The ARENA system will support planned cable tests for 2021 and beyond that cannot conveniently be performed with on-site installations of cable test equipment including: (1) NDE Tests including Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR), Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR), Tan Delta (TD) Impedance measurements, Low Frequency Dielectric Spectroscopy (DS) measurements, standard multi-meter resistance checks, withstand tests and other bulk and distributed tests from the instrument panel with and without motors connected. (2) Online energized live wire tests using partial discharge instruments and LIVE-WIRE spread-spectrum TDR instruments. (3) Cable tests with partially submerged cable segments (including ability to submerge live cable segments). (4) Cable tests with partially or completely thermally aged segments (including ability to expose energized cable segments to thermal aging and use online monitoring instruments to monitor cable performance. (5) Ability to introduce low resistance simulations of connector or splice faults to off-line and on-line instrument setups.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Critical and Californium Source-Driven Noise Analysis Subcritical Measurements with an Unreflected Cylindrical Tank of Mixed Uranium-Plutonium Nitrate Solution

The reported experiments were performed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) at the Battelle Northwest Laboratory’s (now Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) critical experiments facility at Hanford, Washington in 1981 and used 16 days of critical facility time, not including 10 days for setup and removal of ORNL equipment. These measurements were to assess the capability of the Cf source-driven noise analysis (CSDNA) method to measure the subcriticality (keff) of mixed U-Pu nitrate solutions. In addition to the CSNDA measurements, measurements were also performed near delayed criticality where CSDNA measurements cannot be performed. This report documents the experiments that were not reported at that time by presenting the ORNL experimental results and any online analysis performed during and shortly after the measurements. The mixed nitrate solution had a U concentration at 188 grams per liter (g/L), a Pu concentration of 280 g/L, free acid normality of 2.80, H ion molarity of 5.9 and a specific gravity of 1.754 g/cm 3 , a 240 Pu isotopic content of 7.981 wt. %, and a 235 U isotopic content of 0.724 wt. %. The stainless-steel tank for the solution had an inside diameter of 35.38 cm, an outside diameter of 35.53 cm, a height of 56.72 cm, and bottom thickness of 0.9525 cm. A Zircaloy pipe with a 3.1496 cm outside diameter, a 2.7788 cm inside diameter, and bottom thickness of 0.635 cm was available for insertion of the Cf source in the center of the fissile solution. The Cf source was also located at the outside surface of the tank (solution height varied from 10 to 53 cm) and in the center of the solution (solution height varied from 10 to 60.7 cm). The CSDNA measurements were not analyzed online to determine the subcritical neutron multiplication factors. At all subcritical states, the break frequency noise analysis data was fitted to obtain the prompt neutron decay constant. The neutron multiplication factors were determined for the two configurations of the measurements near delayed criticality. The subcritical neutron multiplication factors from the CNSDA measurements can be obtained with further analysis. However, the near delayed critical configuration, the prompt neutron decay constants, the count rates, and the measured cross and auto power spectral densities can be calculated directly for benchmarking. Much of data presented in this report are from ORNL notes—not in the ORNL logbooks. For the final benchmark analysis, the data from the Battelle Northwest Laboratory (which operated the critical facility in 1981) critical facility logbook should be consulted and be incorporated where appropriate. The purpose of this report is to document the experimental information for the measurements performed so that at a later date researchers could perform the required uncertainty and calculational analyses and documentation to use these data for an International Criticality Safety Benchmark Program (ICSBEP) or Nuclear Energy Agency benchmark. The data from these measurements are available from the ORNL Records Management Services Department, and the logbook is available from ICSBEP at Idaho National Laboratory. Preparation of the present report is part of a larger cooperative effort between Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to document more than 15 undocumented critical and subcritical experiments enumerated in ORNL/TM-2019/18 and performed by ORNL at ORCEF and other USDOE critical experiments facilities using more than 500 operational days of critical facility time.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Utility-Scale Solar, 2022 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2022 Edition” provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2021. Highlights of this year’s update include: -A record of nearly 12.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2021, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 51.3 GWAC across 44 states. -90% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2021 uses single-axis tracking. -Median installed project costs declined to $\$1.35$/WAC (or $\$1.02$/WDC) in 2021. -Project-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. -Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$33$/MWh in 2021 ($\$27$/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). -PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have recently stagnated and even moved slightly higher. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average around $\$20$/MWh (levelized) in the West and $\$30-40$/MWh elsewhere in the continental US. In 2021, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) rose by 55% to $\$47$/MWh and exceeded average wholesale prices in 13 of the 17 balancing authorities analyzed. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from 67 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -At the end of 2021, there were at least 674 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 284 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: November 2022 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 2.8 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2021, representing 86% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: -Median solar adopter income was about $\$110$k/year in 2021, compared to a U.S. median of about $\$63$k/year for all households and $\$79$k/year for all owner-occupied households -The degree of income skew varies significantly across all states, but all states exhibit some positive income skew, with median solar-adopter incomes ranging from 131-168% of the respective county-median income for all households -Notwithstanding the fact that solar adopter incomes skew high, a substantial share of adopters could be considered low-to-moderate income (LMI), with 22% of all 2021 adopters earning less than 80% of area median income, and an additional 21% between 80% and 120% of area median income. -Solar-adopter incomes are declining over time, with median incomes dropping from $\$129$k in 2010 to $\$110$k in 2021, as adoption becomes more proportionately distributed across the population and has started to broaden into low- and middle-income states since 2016. -Solar-adopter incomes are consistently higher for systems paired with battery storage, for host-owned systems, and for systems installed on single-family homes; higher income adopters also consistently install larger systems. -Solar adopters tend to live in Census Tracts not identified as “disadvantaged communities” (using the U.S. Department of Energy’s interim definitions developed March 2022), making up 11% of adopters compared to 18% of U.S. households. -Compared to the broader population, solar adopters tend to: identify as Non-Hispanic White, be primarily English-speaking, have higher education levels, be middle-aged, work in business and finance-related occupations, and live in higher-value homes In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households; requests for analytical support may be submitted through this online form.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Are You Philanthropy-Ready? How to Work with Foundations on Mission-Aligned Community Solar

Community solar is emerging as a popular way to deliver a range of economic and social benefits that go beyond clean energy. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has set a goal for America to deploy enough community solar projects to power the equivalent of five million households by 2025 and create $1 billion in energy bill savings. To reach the goal, DOE has created the Community Power Accelerator, as part of the National Community Solar Partnership (NCSP). The Accelerator is an online ecosystem bringing together developers, lenders, foundations, community organizations, and other stakeholders to support the deployment of mission-aligned community solar. The Accelerator is especially focused on projects that deliver "meaningful benefits" to customers and communities, including: access by low- to moderate-income households; greater bill savings; resilience and grid benefits; community ownership; and local workforce development. Many philanthropic organizations are looking at community solar as a way to capture these benefits in their grant-making and investment programs, while also reducing pollution and promoting environmental justice. To help community-based organizations (CBOs), non-profit organizations, and mission-aligned developers seeking philanthropic support, Berkeley Lab and the National Renewable Energy Lab prepared Are You Philanthropy-Ready? How to Work with Foundations on Mission-Aligned Community Solar. The guide provides an overview of how foundations work, gives tips on what they seek in a fundable project, and provides guidance on crafting effective proposals. In short, this guide aims to help the fund-seeker become philanthropy-ready.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Highlights of this year’s update include: -10.4 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2022, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 61.7 GWAC across 46 states. -94% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2022 uses single-axis tracking. -Median installed project costs declined to $\$1.32$/WAC (or $\$1.07$/WDC) in 2022. -Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. -Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$39$/MWh in 2022 ($\$29$/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). -PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have recently stagnated and even moved slightly higher. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average around $\$20-30$/MWh (levelized) in the West and $\$30-40$/MWh elsewhere in the continental US. -In 2022, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) rose by 40% to $\$71$/MWh and exceeded average wholesale prices in 4 of the 7 ISOs/RTOs and 11 of 18 other balancing authorities analyzed. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from ~100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -the end of 2022, there were at least 947 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 456 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapidly Viable Sustained Grid

Rapid recovery of power flow, possibly after a blackout, is a crucial need arising in scenarios that are increasingly becoming more frequent; here, solutions for rapid viability of power while the grid is being restored are urgently needed to keep critical infrastructure (CI) online. Increasingly, after the initial recovery phase, sustenance of reliable power requires assistive services to the grid for long periods of time. Even though the need is urgent, there is only sparse effort present toward a comprehensive framework/strategy for making power rapidly viable with an emphasis on sustained grid ancillary services; which is the focus of this proposal. The proposed concept envisions four phases. In the first phase, when a large portion of power is disrupted (see Figure 1(a)), emphasis is on bringing CI online with the objective of maximizing the time horizon of power viability using resources available at the CI. In the second phase (Figure 1(b)), neighborhood resources are tightly coordinated that forms the CI’s central-core (CC) to provide guaranteed viability of CI over a longer horizon. In the third phase, self-organizing power networks are expanded in a distributed layer supporting the central-core (Figure 1(c)). In the fourth phase, separate CI-networks coalesce and are controlled in a coordinated fashion to provide grid ancillary services (AS), such as primary frequency control and enhancing grid resiliency. With time, system efficiencies and penetration of renewables increase, while the time-horizon of guaranteed sustenance of CI is maximized. Under proposed work, the concept will be instantiated with a focus on medical centers as CI. Comprehensive power hardware in the loop strategies and emulated field tests will guide and validate devised solutions. A strong T2M effort to commercialize resulting technology is outlined. The proposed technology will be transformative for the grid. It will fundamentally change the way large contingencies are managed where power systems and critical infrastructure transition from being fragile to being robust using intelligent, self-organizing control for coordinating resources, enhanced resiliency and use of sustainable energy sources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Motion Planning Algorithms for Safety and Quantum Computing Efficiency

Motion planning remains a fundamental problem in robotics. Sampling-based algorithms use randomization to allow efficient solutions to this complex problem. As mobile robots and autonomous vehicles become more prevalent in everyday life, motion planning must be applied to increasingly challenging scenarios. Safety has become a paramount concern in motion planning for ensuring robotic applications enrich human lives. To date, many motion planning techniques to increase safety in the face of uncertain and dynamic environments have been developed. This dissertation first addresses distributional safety of Rapidly-Exploring Random Trees (RRT) through our algorithm W-Safe RRT. To acknowledge distributional uncertainty and poor modeling, W-Safe RRT uses the Wasserstein metric to provide a probabilistic bound on the distributional distance between a robot and obstacles. Human-interpretable environmental agent classification allows online safety margin adaptation. We propose and analyze an integrating region method for online classification that increases actor labeling accuracy based on behavioral feature values when compared to state of the art methods. The method performs class assignments based on local maximum likelihood in a created behavioral feature-space, allowing a notion of classification uncertainty. Model-based methods with safety guarantees can quickly become computationally in tractable, especially with multiple agents, higher dimensions, and plentiful unknowns. Sampling based algorithms have been parallelized for computation with multi-core computers and GPUs. We consider the use of quantum algorithms and computers for sampling-based motion planning for the first time. Quantum computing performs operations on superpositions of states and can solve certain problems much more efficiently than classical computers, but introduces previously unseen challenges. With Quantum-RRT, we recast the motion planning problem into a database-search structure and use Quantum Amplitude Amplification to find reachable states in the database with a quadratic performance increase over classical methods. We address two error sources with this method: quantum measurement and quantum oracle errors. We then extend this method to Parallel Quantum-RRT, which uses a manager-worker architecture with multiple parallel quantum workers to increase database search efficiency. We compare algorithm architectures and characterize probabilities of multiple workers finding solutions. Lastly, we test in simulation the quantum algorithms against classical versions in a wide variety of scenarios, concluding that a similar parallelization improvement is to be found in the quantum case as was found in the parallelization of classical RRT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗