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DOE OSTI2025

A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems

Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.

Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydrodynamic behavior of wrapped coil water heater tank

In this work, a numerical investigation using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been carried out to analyze the thermal behavior of a water tank integrated to a heat pump water heating system (HPWH). The heat pump condenser is a long coil wrapped around the water tank and insulated from outside from which heat is transferred from the heat pump cycle into the water stored inside the tank. The simulated water tank has a capacity of about 170 L with the charging inlet located at the bottom segment of the tank and the discharging outlet located at the top segment of the tank like commercially available water heaters. The tank was simulated during charging/discharging process with isothermal boundary condition at the tank wall to represent the majority of the process for refrigerant condensation inside the heat pump condenser (excluding superheated and sub-cooled section). Three flow rates were selected to represent low, medium and high flow pattern. Both mean and turbulent flow properties were calculated and analyzed. Heat transfer mechanisms inside the tank are quantified by calculating Richardson and Péclet numbers to show the relative contribution of driving forces. The calculations show that advection is dominant over diffusion. Mixing factor is calculated and presented. It is found that the rate of increase of mixing is nonlinear with the increase in flow rate. Mixing increased by a factor of four when the flow rate increased by a factor of two.

stratification↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emergence of Diverse Failure Patterns in Weathering‐Induced Landslides: Insights From Particle Finite Element Simulations

Weathering is a fundamental driver of landslide evolution over geological timescales. Despite its ubiquity and importance, quantifying how weathering drives the progressive destabilization of rock slopes remains challenging. In this work, we develop a unified computational framework based on the particle finite element method to investigate the evolution of weathering‐induced landslides, from long‐term weathering to short‐term slope failure and runout dynamics. The framework integrates key processes, including weathering front propagation, time‐dependent strength degradation, rupture surface development, and post‐failure runout dynamics. Through numerical simulation experiments, we elucidate how interactions among weathering characteristics (type, intensity, and rate law), bedrock strength, fracture distribution, and slope geometry govern the failure modes and kinematics of weathering‐induced landslides. Simulations show that matrix‐dominated weathering leads to shallow translational failures, whereas fracture‐dominated weathering produces deep‐seated rotational and compound landslides. Pre‐existing fractures and slope morphology also strongly influence the movement of destabilized landmasses, affecting the failure pattern (e.g., kinematic mode and rupture surface geometry) and post‐failure behavior (e.g., runout velocity). We further demonstrate that the failure time and volume of weathered slopes are governed by the competition between gravitational driving forces and cohesive resisting forces during progressive destabilization. These findings provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that drive the emergence of diverse failure patterns of weathering‐induced landslides with important implications for landslide hazard assessment.

Wang, Liang [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Sizing of PV and Energy Storage in an Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging Station

This paper proposes an optimization model for the optimal sizing of photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage in an electric vehicle extreme fast charging station considering the coordinated charging strategy of the electric vehicles. The proposed model minimizes the annualized cost of the extreme fast charging station, including investment and maintenance cost of PV and energy storage, cost of purchasing energy from utility and demand charge. The decision variables are capacity of invested PV and the power and energy ratings of invested energy storage. To further reduce the annualized cost of the extreme fast charging station, the charging strategy of electric vehicles are integrated into the optimization model and coordinated with the power output of PV and charging/discharging of energy storage. Results of numerical simulations indicate that investment of PV and energy storage could help reduce the annualized cost of the extreme fast charging station significantly. Meanwhile, the impacts of various parameters on the optimal solution are investigated by sensitivity analysis.

Liu, Guodong↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cyber-Physical System: Design for Sustainability and Resilience

When considering the design tools needed in the transition from numeric models to pilot plant, cyber-physical systems (CPS) come to the forefront as a method to model complex integrated energy systems. CPS approach has proven to be valuable to identify opportunities for economically viable early adoption of integrated energy technologies. This tutorial will introduce the concepts and the roles of CPS in co-design to minimize risks for pilot plant and technology deployment. This tutorial will also layout basic requirements for the CPS development, which requires a highly interdisciplinary effort with expertise in sensors, hardware testing, real-time modeling, controls, and system integration.

Harun, Nor Farida↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modular Hydronic Room Conditioning System

This project presents the development and validation of high-fidelity numerical models for fin-tube heat exchangers to enable accurate performance prediction and informed design optimization. The modeling framework integrates detailed geometric specifications, thermophysical property data, and system-level constraints to simulate the heat exchanger’s behavior under a range of operating conditions. The model is calibrated using real-world product specifications and validated against experimental data collected from controlled cooling and heating tests. In cooling mode, the model captures the overall trends in capacity and outlet air temperature but tends to underpredict latent effects, especially at lower air flow rates. In heating mode, the simulation consistently overestimates both the thermal capacity and outlet air temperature, indicating the need for refinement in air-side heat transfer assumptions. Despite these deviations, the model provides a solid foundation for optimization, allowing key design variables to be tuned within physical and performance-based constraints. This research advances the ability to simulate, validate, and optimize fin tube heat exchanger designs with greater confidence and efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Full-Field Strain Measurement Integrated with Two Dimension Regression Analysis to Evaluate the Bi-Modulus Elastic Properties of Isotropic and Transversely Isotropic Materials

Background: Measuring the physical properties of shale is critical for optimizing engineering activities such as geothermal energy generation and hydraulic fracturing. Shale is a transversely isotropic material. Furthermore, this material can also include micro and macro cracks at different locations and orientations that cause it to behave differently under tensile or compressive loading. Objective: In this work, a combined experimental–numerical approach is proposed to evaluate the bi-modulus elastic properties of isotropic and transversely isotropic materials. Methods: Full-field strain measurements for a circular disk under diametral compression are integrated with a regression analysis technique to evaluate the elastic properties of bi-modulus materials subjected to tensile and compressive loads using two loading configurations on the same specimen. Digital Image Correlation (DIC) is used to measure the full-field strains. Subsequently, in the case of an isotropic material, a linear least-squares approach is utilized to process the experimentally determined strains in conjunction with analytical expressions of the stress fields (in terms of far-field loading) to determine the elastic modulus E, the shear modulus G, and the Poisson’s ratio $v$. In the case of a transversely isotopic material, such as shale, a finite element model is implemented to determine the stress fields (again in terms of far-field loading), which is followed by repeating the previous regression analysis in an iterative process to estimate the elastic parameters. Results: The results show that the proposed technique successfully provides a complete set of elastic properties as a function of both the loading condition and the principal material directions. The technique is validated by measurements on a known isotropic material and then applied to determine the properties of shale. Conclusion: In this work, the proposed approach is successfully used to calculate the bi-modulus elastic response of poly(methyl meth- acrylate) (PMMA) and shale. As expected, PMMA exhibits an isotropic response with no bi-modulus effect, however, shale exhibits both transverse isotropy and a bi-modulus effect. Therefore, this approach holds promise for investigating the elastic properties of materials like rocks and fiber-reinforced composite laminates as functions of the principal material directions and the loading conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Economic Dispatch and Load-Following Strategies for Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems

The need for distributed and adaptable energy resources that can handle the growing unpredictability in both supply and demand is rising as the power system continues to modernize. In order to satisfy those needs and maintain grid resilience, nuclear power plants can dynamically control their output, despite typically being used as baseload generators. By incorporating energy storage and renewable energy sources, nuclear integrated energy systems are designed to satisfy the electrical and thermal demands of different end-user applications while ensuring flexible power operation. These systems generate revenue by participating in both wholesale and ancillary services electricity markets, as well as commodity markets for various byproducts generated from coupled industrial processes. This study addresses the economic dispatch efficiency of a tightly coupled nuclear integrated energy system comprising a gigawatt-scale light water reactor, commercialized in the U.S., a high-temperature steam electrolysis unit, a district heating network, and specified electrical loads. To demonstrate the nuclear power plant’s flexibility within the day-ahead unit commitment and economic dispatch framework, while maintaining equilibrium even during periods of refueling outages, this paper develops a mixed-integer linear programming framework that models the subsystems and components of its nuclear steam supply system. A systematic comparative analysis of flexible versus baseload nuclear power plant operation under varying levels of renewable energy integration indicates that flexible operation enhances system profitability by more than 18% while also increasing energy storage utilization, improving reactor responsiveness to load fluctuations, and allowing for greater participation across numerous electricity markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical and Analytical Modeling of the Effect of Cracks on the Self-Inductance of a COTS YJ-41003-TC Toroid

COTS inductors and transformers often contain partial cracks whose effect on inductance, a key performance parameter, have not been carefully studied. In this report, the effects of both partial and complete cracks on the self-inductance of a 100 turn square cross section COTS YJ-41003-TC toroid comprised of J Material was comprehensively investigated using both analytically derived closed form expressions and 3D computational techniques employing commercial codes. Both partial (half-penny) and complete (air gap) cracks of 10 and 25 μm were investigated. The crack is defined as the physical distance between two faces of the toroid's magnetic core, such that the surface normal of either face is along the Φ-direction, in alignment with the B-field. For the purposes of validation, two different approaches were incorporated for both the analytical and numerical models. The two analytical methods are comprised of a first principles approach based on the physics of electromagnetics, as well as linear circuit theory. The former directly utilizes the integral form of Maxwell's equations while the latter exploits the interchangeable relationship between electric and magnetic circuits. Validation within the computational scheme is realized through a code-to-code comparison between commercial solvers, COMSOL Multiphysics and CST, with the former employing the Finite Element Method (FEM) and the latter the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) technique. Sound agreement between all four methods (ie., two analytical and two numerical) is observed, with results indicating that only a perturbation in self-inductance occurs for the half-penny cracks, while a substantial reduction takes place for the case of complete cracks. It is important to note that even though a static μ r is applied, representing the linear region of the BH curve (based on manufacturer specifications), the complete crack results still place a lower conservative bound on the inductance. This follows from the fact that even in the case of a half-penny crack, if the magnetic core portion of the crack approaches saturation, the crack begins to behave like an air gap, or complete crack. When an air gap is introduced into a magnetic core, a substantial reduction in inductance can occur due to the significant difference in permeabilities between the two mediums (ie., μ core >> μ air ). The once intact bulk magnetic core of the toroid essentially begins to behave like an air core.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exact WKB and the quantum Seiberg-Witten curve for 4d $N$ = 2 pure SU(3) Yang-Mills. Abelianization

We investigate the exact WKB method for the quantum Seiberg-Witten curve of 4d N = 2 pure SU(3) Yang-Mills in the language of abelianization. The relevant differential equation is a third-order equation on $\mathbb{CP}^1$ with two irregular singularities. We employ the exact WKB method to study the solutions to such a third-order equation and the associated Stokes phenomena. We also investigate the exact quantization condition for a certain spectral problem. Moreover, exact WKB analysis leads us to consider new Darboux coordinates on a moduli space of flat SL(3,$\mathbb{C}$)-connections. In particular, in the weak coupling region we encounter coordinates of the higher length-twist type generalizing Fenchel-Nielsen coordinates. The Darboux coordinates are conjectured to admit asymptotic expansions given by the formal quantum periods series and we perform numerical analysis supporting this conjecture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Finite elements for Matérn-type random fields: Uncertainty in computational mechanics and design optimization

This work highlights an approach for incorporating realistic uncertainties into scientific computing workflows based on finite elements, focusing on prevalent applications in computational mechanics and design optimization. We leverage Matérn-type Gaussian random fields (GRFs) generated using the SPDE method to model aleatoric uncertainties, including environmental influences, variating material properties, and geometric ambiguities. Our focus lies on delivering practical GRF realizations that accurately capture imperfections and variations and understanding how they impact the predictions of computational models as well as the shape and topology of optimized designs. Here we describe a numerical algorithm based on solving a generalized SPDE to sample GRFs on arbitrary meshed domains. The algorithm leverages established techniques and integrates seamlessly with the open-source finite element library MFEM and associated scientific computing workflows, like those found in industrial and national laboratory settings. Our solver scales efficiently for large-scale problems and supports various domain types, including surfaces and embedded manifolds. We showcase its versatility through biomechanics and topology optimization applications, emphasizing the potential to influence these domains. The flexibility and efficiency of SPDE-based GRF generation empowers us to run large-scale optimization problems on 2D and 3D domains, including finding optimized designs on embedded surfaces, and to generate design features and topologies beyond the reach of conventional techniques. Moreover, these capabilities allow us to model and quantify geometric uncertainties on reconstructed submanifolds, such as the interpolated surfaces of cerebral aneurysms provided by postprocessing CT scans. In addition to offering benefits in these specific domains, the proposed techniques transcend specific applications and generalize to arbitrary forward and backward problems in uncertainty quantification involving finite elements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding asymmetries using integrated simulations of capsule implosions in low gas-fill hohlraums at the National Ignition Facility

Current capsule implosions at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) using high-density-carbon ablators and laser energies close to 2 MJ have shown neutron yields in excess of 50 kJ. Improving on this performance requires understanding of the different degradation mechanisms. For many NIF implosions, nuclear diagnostic signatures have inferred residual hot-spot velocities that correlate with fuel areal density variations consistent with a low-order mode-1 asymmetry. A current working hypothesis attributes these asymmetries to a combination of beam to beam variations in the laser delivery and possibly coupling to target features, such as the diagnostic holes needed for x-ray imaging. Recently, a new source has been identified, thickness variation in the ablator shell. To gain better understanding and eventually mitigate the causes of <ρR> asymmetries, 3D integrated simulations using the actual delivered laser powers are needed. To capture the effect of the diagnostic holes (DHs) using direct numerical simulation would require significantly large computational resources. Instead, our 3D simulations make use of a subgrid model developed using highly-resolved 2D simulations that include several details of the DH engineering complexity. Simulations of NIF shots using hohlraums without DHs, to isolate the effect of beam-to-beam variations, reproduce fairly well the observed nuclear diagnostic signatures. Similarly, reasonable agreement between data and simulations is also obtained in the presence of diagnostic holes. To account for the remaining discrepancies a sensitivity study of ablator thickness variation showed that 1% thickness asymmetries are comparable in effect to 1% peak drive mode-1 asymmetries. Furthermore, this study identified sensitivity to variations in the imbedded doped layer (needed to shield the DT ice from the high energy x-rays generated in the hohlraum) thickness even when the inner and outer surface of the ablator are perfectly spherical.

radiation hydrodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conformalized-KANs: Uncertainty Quantification with Coverage Guarantees for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) in Scientific Machine Learning

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods in the context of Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KANs). We apply an ensemble approach to KANs to obtain a heuristic measure of UQ, enhancing interpretability and robustness in modeling complex functions. Building on this, we introduce Conformalized-KANs, which integrate conformal prediction, a distribution-free UQ technique, with KAN ensembles to generate calibrated prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.} Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods, focusing particularly on the robustness and accuracy of the prediction intervals under various hyperparameter settings. We show that the conformal KAN predictions can be applied to recent extensions of KANs, including Finite Basis KANs (FBKANs) and multifideilty KANs (MFKANs). The results demonstrate the potential of our approaches to significantly improve the reliability and applicability of KANs in scientific machine learning.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time-domain theory of transient heat conduction in the local limit

Ultrafast and nanoscale heat conduction demands a unified theoretical framework that rigorously bridges macroscopic transport equations with microscopic material properties derived from statistical physics. Existing empirical generalizations of Fourier's law often lack a solid microscopic foundation, failing to connect observed non-Fourier behavior with underlying atomic-scale mechanisms. In this work, we present a time-domain theory of transient heat conduction rooted in Zwanzig's statistical theory of irreversible processes. Central to this framework is the time-domain transport function $\overleftrightarrow{𝑍}$⁡(𝑡) defined through equilibrium time-correlation functions of heat fluxes. This function generalizes the conventional concept of steady-state thermal conductivity, governing the transition of conduction dynamics from onset second sound type wave propagation at finite speeds to diffusion-dominated behavior across broad temporal and spatial scales. Unlike phonon hydrodynamic models that rely on mesoscopic constructs such as phonon drift velocity, our approach provides a quantitative and microscopic description of intrinsic memory effects in transient heat fluxes and applies universally to bulk materials at any temperature or length scale. By integrating atomistic-scale first-principles calculations with continuum-level macroscopic equations, this framework offers a robust foundation for numerical simulations of transient temperature fields. Furthermore, it facilitates the interpretation and design of transient thermal grating experiments using nanometer-scale heat sources and ultrafast laser systems in the extreme ultraviolet and x-ray wavelength ranges, advancing our understanding of heat dissipation dynamics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Internal energy balance and aerodynamic heating predictions for hypersonic turbulent boundary layers

The elemental equation governing heat transfer in aerodynamic flows is the internal energy equation. For a boundary layer flow, a double integration of the Reynolds-averaged form of this equation provides an expression of the wall heat flux in terms of the integrated effects, over the boundary layer, of various physical processes: turbulent dissipation, mean dissipation, turbulent heat flux, etc. Recently available direct numerical simulation data for a Mach 11 cold-wall turbulent boundary layer allows a comparison of the exact contributions of these terms in the energy equation to the wall heat flux with their counterparts modeled in the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework. Various approximations involved in RANS, both closure models as well as approximations involved in adapting incompressible RANS models to a compressible form, are assessed through examination of the internal energy balance. There are a number of potentially problematic assumptions and terms identified through this analysis. Here, the effect of compressibility corrections of the dilatational dissipation type is explored, as is the role of the modeled turbulent dissipation, in the context of wall heat flux predictions. The results indicate several potential avenues for RANS model improvement for hypersonic cold-wall boundary-layer flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

FIERRO V.X

FIERRO is a modern C++ code intended to simulate quasi-static solid mechanics problems and transient, compressible material dynamic problems with Lagrangian methods, which have meshes with constant mass elements that move with the material. FIERRO is designed to aid a) material model research that has historically been done using commercial implicit and explicit finite element codes, b) numerical methods research, and c) computer science research. FIERRO supports user developed material models that adhere to several industry standard formats by using a C++ to Fortran interface to couple the model to the numerical solvers. FIERRO is built on the ELEMENTS library that supports a diverse suite of element types, including high-order elements, and quadrature rules. The mesh class within the ELEMENTS library is designed for efficient calculations on unstructured meshes and to minimize memory usage. FIERRO is designed to readily accommodate a range of numerical methods including continuous finite element, finite volume, and discontinuous Galerkin methods. FIERRO is designed to support explicit and implicit time integration methods. FIERRO only supports a single material in an element. No physical data exists within the code.

Morgan, Nathaniel↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗