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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Changing-look Active Galactic Nuclei from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. II. Statistical Properties from the First Data Release

We present the identification of changing-look active galactic nuclei (CL-AGNs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument First Data Release and Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16 at z ≤ 0.9. To confirm the CL-AGNs, we utilize spectral flux calibration assessment via an [O III ]-based calibration, pseudophotometry examination, and visual inspection. This rigorous selection process allows us to compile a statistical catalog of 561 CL-AGNs, encompassing 527 Hβ, 149 Hα, and 129 Mg II CL behaviors. In this sample, we find (1) a 283:278 ratio of turn-on to turn-off CL-AGNs. (2) The median Eddington ratio for CL-AGNs in the dim state is approximately λ Edd ∼ 0.01. (3) A strong correlation between the change in the luminosity of the broad emission lines (BELs) and variation in the continuum luminosity, with Mg II and Hβ displaying similar responses during CL phases. (4) The Baldwin–Phillips–Terlevich diagram for CL-AGNs shows no statistical difference from the general AGN catalog. (5) Five CL-AGNs are associated with asymmetrical mid-infrared flares, possibly linked to tidal disruption events. Given the large CL-AGN sample and the stochastic sampling of spectra, we propose that some CL phenomena are inherently due to typical AGN variability during low accretion rates, particularly for CL phenomenon only occurring on one BEL. Finally, we introduce a monotonically dimming CL phase for objects characterized by a gradual decline over decades in the light curve and the complete disappearance of entire BELs in faint spectra, indicative of a real transition in the accretion disk.

accretion↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Chocolate Chip Cookie Model: Dust-to-metal Ratio of H ii Regions

Using a sample of face-on star-forming galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we statistically derive the typical optical depth $\tau$ cl of individual H II regions based on the "Chocolate Chip Cookie" model of Lu et al. (2022). By binning galaxies into stellar mass and gas-phase metallicity bins and interpreting $\tau$ cl as the dust-to-gas ratio (DGR) of H II regions, we further investigate the correlations between DGR and stellar mass and between DGR and gas-phase metallicity, respectively. We find that DGR increases monotonically with the stellar mass of galaxies. At a given stellar mass, DGR shows a linear correlation with the gas-phase metallicity, which implies a constant dust-to-metal ratio (DTM) of galaxies at a given stellar mass. These results adequately indicate that the DTM of galaxies is simply a function of their stellar masses. In terms of gas-phase metallicity, because of the mass–metallicity relation, DTM increases with increasing metallicity with a power-law index 1.45 in the low-metallicity region, while it remains constant at the high-metallicity end.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Growing Braking Index and Spin-down Swings for the Pulsar PSR B0540–69

The way pulsars spin down is not understood in detail, but a number of possible physical mechanisms produce a spin-down rate that scales as a power of the rotation rate ($\dot{v}$ α-$v$ n ), with the power-law index n called the braking index. PSR B0540−69 is a pulsar that in 2011, after 16 yr of spinning down with a constant braking index of 2.1, experienced a giant spin-down change and a reduction of its braking index to nearly zero. Here, we show that, following this episode, the braking index monotonically increased during a period of at least 4 yr and stabilized at ∼1.1. We also present an alternative interpretation of a more modest rotational irregularity that occurred in 2023, which was modeled as an anomalous negative step of the rotation rate. Our analysis shows that the 2023 observations can be equally well described as a transient swing of the spin-down rate (lasting ∼65 days), and the Bayesian evidence indicates that this model is strongly preferred.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Score-based deterministic density sampling

We propose a deterministic sampling framework using Score-Based Transport Modeling for sampling an unnormalized target density π given only its score ∇ log π. Our method approximates the Wasserstein gradient flow on KL($f_t$∥π) by learning the time-varying score ∇ log $f_t$ on the fly using score matching. While having the same marginal distribution as Langevin dynamics, our method produces smooth deterministic trajectories, resulting in monotone noise-free convergence. We prove that our method dissipates relative entropy at the same rate as the exact gradient flow, provided sufficient training. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings: our method converges at the optimal rate, has smooth trajectories, and is often more sample efficient than its stochastic counterpart. Experiments on high-dimensional image data show that our method produces high-quality generations in as few as 15 steps and exhibits natural exploratory behavior. The memory and runtime scale linearly in the sample size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental and Numerical Study on the Effect of Nitric Oxide on Autoignition and Knock in a Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition Engine

We report Nitric Oxide (NO) can significantly influence the autoignition reactivity and this can affect knock limits in conventional stoichiometric SI engines. Previous studies also revealed that the role of NO changes with fuel type. Fuels with high RON (Research Octane Number) and high Octane Sensitivity (S = RON – MON (Motor Octane Number)) exhibited monotonically retarding knocklimited combustion phasing (KL-CA50) with increasing NO. In contrast, for a high-RON, low-S fuel, the addition of NO initially resulted in a strongly retarded KL-CA50 but beyond the certain amount of NO, KL-CA50 advanced again. The current study focuses on same high-RON, low-S Alkylate fuel to better understand the mechanisms responsible for the reversal in the effect of NO on KLCA50 beyond a certain amount of NO. Experiments were conducted to measure the responses of KL-CA50 and trace-autoignition CA50, the latter being indicative of CA50 at which end-gas autoignition starts to become measurable from the apparent heat-release rate. Chemical-kinetics simulations were conducted to reveal the role of NO for end-gas autoignition, with a specific focus on sequential autoignition in a thermally stratified end-gas. The simulation results reveal that the magnitude of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) generally increases with NO. However, the relative importance of NO for enhancing LTHR diminishes when the LTHR inherent to a fuel’s chemistry is strong, such as at lower temperatures in a thermal boundary layer. This rendered more uniform LTHR within a hypothetical thermal boundary and led to a more sequential (i.e. slower) autoignition event. It was also revealed that a change in compression ratio influences the importance of intermediate-temperature heat release (ITHR) due to changes of the temperature-pressure history of the end-gas. Together with the condition where end-gas autoignition occurs more sequentially, the shorter time spent in LTHR and ITHR regime can counter the increase in autoignition reactivity at high NO levels and allow KLCA50 to advance

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changing-look Active Galactic Nuclei from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. II. Statistical Properties from the First Data Release

We present the identification of changing-look active galactic nuclei (CL-AGNs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument First Data Release and Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16 at z≤ 0.9. To confirm the CL-AGNs, we utilize spectral flux calibration assessment via an [O iii]-based calibration, pseudophotometry examination, and visual inspection. This rigorous selection process allows us to compile a statistical catalog of 561 CL-AGNs, encompassing 527 Hβ, 149 Hα, and 129 Mg ii CL behaviors. In this sample, we find (1) a 283:278 ratio of turn-on to turn-off CL-AGNs. (2) The median Eddington ratio for CL-AGNs in the dim state is approximately λ$_{Edd}$ ∼ 0.01. (3) A strong correlation between the change in the luminosity of the broad emission lines (BELs) and variation in the continuum luminosity, with Mg ii and Hβ displaying similar responses during CL phases. (4) The Baldwin–Phillips–Terlevich diagram for CL-AGNs shows no statistical difference from the general AGN catalog. (5) Five CL-AGNs are associated with asymmetrical mid-infrared flares, possibly linked to tidal disruption events. Given the large CL-AGN sample and the stochastic sampling of spectra, we propose that some CL phenomena are inherently due to typical AGN variability during low accretion rates, particularly for CL phenomenon only occurring on one BEL. Finally, we introduce a monotonically dimming CL phase for objects characterized by a gradual decline over decades in the light curve and the complete disappearance of entire BELs in faint spectra, indicative of a real transition in the accretion disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the azimuthal anisotropy of charged particles in $\sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}}=5.36$ TeV $^{16}$O$+^{16}$O and $^{20}$Ne$+^{20}$Ne collisions with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents the first measurements of the azimuthal anisotropy coefficients $v_{n}$, which quantify the $n^{\mathrm{th}}$-order Fourier modulation of charged-particle azimuthal distributions, for $n=2$-4 in $\sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}}=5.36$ TeV $\mathrm{^{16}O}+\mathrm{^{16}O}$ and $\mathrm{^{20}Ne}+\mathrm{^{20}Ne}$ collisions recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2025. The $v_{n}$ coefficients are measured as a function of transverse momentum ($p_{\mathrm{T}}$), collision centrality, and event multiplicity. They are extracted using two complementary methods: two-particle correlations with a template-fit subtraction of short-range non-flow contributions, and four-particle subevent cumulants, which intrinsically suppress non-flow effects and provide sensitivity to flow fluctuations. The results show a clear hierarchy $v_{2} > v_{3} > v_{4}$ and a non-monotonic dependence on $p_{\mathrm{T}}$, reaching a maximum around 2 GeV, consistent with trends observed in heavy-ion collisions. Detailed comparisons between the two collision systems reveal an enhanced $v_{2}$ in central $\mathrm{^{20}Ne}+\mathrm{^{20}Ne}$ collisions, consistent with theory expectations based on the predicted prolate deformation of neon nuclei, in contrast to the slightly tetrahedral structure predicted for oxygen. The four-particle cumulant results highlight strong event-by-event fluctuations and provide the greatest sensitivity to nuclear shape effects. These measurements can place new constraints on the initial geometry and the hydrodynamic response in light-ion collisions, offering valuable input for models of nuclear structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the Origins of Anti-Ambipolarity in BBL Polymer: Links to Redox Chemistry, Electronic Structure, and Structural Dynamics

We examine the intrinsic physical-chemical properties of the conjugated ladder-type polymer poly(benzimidazobenzophenanthroline) (BBL) in response to electron transfer. We aim at explaining the origin of the anti-ambipolar behavior behind the observed BBL nonlinear response associated with specific device architectures. To elucidate this point, we use theory and computation based on first principles, including density functional theory optimizations, ab initio molecular dynamics, time-dependent DFT, and Marcus-theory analysis. Our results reveal that this redox response is not simply monotonic but follows an alternating odd/even pattern in which gap narrowing and reopening occur sequentially before near-gapless behavior emerges at high charging. Converging theoretical evidence in this work demonstrates that bell shaped conductivity in BBL originates in its fundamental electronic structure and supramolecular organization.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement report: Cloud condensation nuclei activity and its variation with organic oxidation level and volatility observed during an aerosol life cycle intensive operational period (ALC-IOP)

Abstract. Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectrum and the CCN activated fraction of size-resolved aerosols (SR-CCN) were measured at a rural site on Long Island during the Department of Energy (DOE) aerosol life cycle intensive operational period (ALC-IOP) from 15 July to 15 August 2011. During the last week of the ALC-IOP, the dependence of the activated fraction on aerosol volatility was characterized by sampling downstream of a thermodenuder (TD) operated at temperatures up to 100 ∘C. Here we present aerosol properties, including aerosol total number concentration, CCN spectrum, and the CCN hygroscopicity, for air masses of representative origins during the ALC-IOP. The hygroscopicity of organic species in the aerosol is derived from CCN hygroscopicity and chemical composition. The dependence of organic hygroscopicity on the organic oxidation level (e.g., atomic O:C ratio) agrees well with theoretical predictions and results from previous laboratory and field studies. The derived κorg and O:C ratio first increase as TD temperature increases from 20 ∘C (i.e., ambient temperature) to 50 or 75 ∘C and then decrease as TD temperature further increases to 100 ∘C. The initial increases of O:C and κorg with TD temperature below 50 ∘C are likely due to evaporation of more volatile organics with relatively lower O:C and hygroscopicity such as primary organic aerosol. At the high TD temperatures, the decreases of O:C and κorg indicate that evaporated organics were more oxygenated and had lower molecular weights. These trends are different from previous laboratory experiments and field observations, which reported that organic O:C increased monotonically with increasing TD temperature, whereas κorg decreased with the TD temperature. One possible reason is that previous studies were either focused on laboratory-generated secondary organic aerosol (SOA) or based on field observations at locations more dominated by SOA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pan-Arctic seasonal cycles and long-term trends of aerosol properties from 10 observatories

Even though the Arctic is remote, aerosol properties observed there are strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions from outside the Arctic. This is particularly true for the so-called Arctic haze season (January through April). In summer (June through September), when atmospheric transport patterns change, and precipitation is more frequent, local Arctic sources, i.e., natural sources of aerosols and precursors, play an important role. Over the last few decades, significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions have taken place. At the same time a large body of literature shows evidence that the Arctic is undergoing fundamental environmental changes due to climate forcing, leading to enhanced emissions by natural processes that may impact aerosol properties. In this study, we analyze 9 aerosol chemical species and 4 particle optical properties from 10 Arctic observatories (Alert, Kevo, Pallas, Summit, Thule, Tiksi, Barrow/Utgiavik, Villum, and Gruvebadet and Zeppelin Observatory – both at Ny-Ålesund Research Station) to understand changes in anthropogenic and natural aerosol contributions. Variables include equivalent black carbon, particulate sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, methanesulfonic acid, sodium, iron, calcium and potassium, as well as scattering and absorption coefficients, single scattering albedo and scattering Ångström exponent. First, annual cycles are investigated, which despite anthropogenic emission reductions still show the Arctic haze phenomenon. Second, long-term trends are studied using the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen slope method. We find in total 41 significant trends over full station records, i.e., spanning more than a decade, compared to 26 significant decadal trends. The majority of significantly declining trends is from anthropogenic tracers and occurred during the haze period, driven by emission changes between 1990 and 2000. For the summer period, no uniform picture of trends has emerged. Twenty-six percent of trends, i.e., 19 out of 73, are significant, and of those 5 are positive and 14 are negative. Negative trends include not only anthropogenic tracers such as equivalent black carbon at Kevo, but also natural indicators such as methanesulfonic acid and non-sea-salt calcium at Alert. Positive trends are observed for sulfate at Gruvebadet. No clear evidence of a significant change in the natural aerosol contribution can be observed yet. However, testing the sensitivity of the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen method, we find that monotonic changes of around 5 % yr –1 in an aerosol property are needed to detect a significant trend within one decade. This highlights that long-term efforts well beyond a decade are needed to capture smaller changes. It is particularly important to understand the ongoing natural changes in the Arctic, where interannual variability can be high, such as with forest fire emissions and their influence on the aerosol population. To investigate the climate-change-induced influence on the aerosol population and the resulting climate feedback, long-term observations of tracers more specific to natural sources are needed, as well as of particle microphysical properties such as size distributions, which can be used to identify changes in particle populations which are not well captured by mass-oriented methods such as bulk chemical composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Undersizing of aged African biomass burning aerosol by an ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer

The ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS) differs from most other optical particle spectrometers by using a high-power infrared (IR) laser to detect small particles and reduce the sizing ambiguity due to the non-monotonicity of scattering with particle size. During the NASA ORACLES project (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, the UHSAS clearly undersized particles in the biomass burning plume extending from southern Africa. Since the horizontal and vertical extent of the plume was vast, the NASA P-3B research aircraft often flew through a fairly uniform biomass burning plume for periods exceeding 30 min, sufficient time to explore the details of the UHSAS response by selecting single particle sizes with a differential mobility analyzer (DMA) and passing them to the UHSAS. This was essentially an in-flight calibration of the UHSAS using the particles of interest. Two modes of responses appeared. Most particles were undersized by moderate amounts, ranging from not at all for 70 nm aerosols to 15 % for 280 nm particles. Mie scattering calculations show that composition-dependent refractive index of the particles cannot explain the pattern. Heating of brown carbon or tarballs in the beam causing evaporation and shrinking of the particles is the most plausible explanation, though mis-sizing due to non-sphericity cannot be ruled out. A small fraction (10 %–30 %) of the particles were undersized by 25 % to 35 %. Those were apparently the particles containing refractory black carbon. Laboratory calibrations confirm that black carbon is drastically undersized by the UHSAS, because particles heat to their vaporization point and shrink. A simple empirical correction equation was implemented that dramatically improves agreement with DMA distributions between 100 and 500 nm. It raised the median particle diameter by 18 nm, from 163 to 181 nm, during the August 2017 deployment and by smaller amounts during deployments with less intense pollution. Calculated scattering from UHSAS size distributions increased by about 130 %, dramatically improving agreement with scattering measured by nephelometers. The correction is only valid in polluted instances; clean marine boundary layer and free troposphere aerosols behaved more like the calibration spheres. We were unable to directly test the correction between 500 and 1000 nm, though aerodynamic particle sizer (APS) data appear to show that the correction is poor at the largest diameters, which is no surprise as the composition of those particles is likely to be quite different than that of the accumulation mode. This adds to the evidence that UHSAS data must be treated cautiously whenever the aerosol may absorb infrared light. Similar corrections may be required whenever brown carbon aerosol is present.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reconstructing atmospheric H 2 over the past century from bi-polar firn air records

Abstract. Historical atmospheric H2 levels were reconstructed using firn air measurements from two sites in Greenland (NEEM and Summit) and two sites in Antarctica (South Pole and Megadunes). A joint reconstruction based on the two Antarctic sites yields H2 levels monotonically increasing from about 330 ppb in 1900 to 550 ppb in the late 1990s, leveling off thereafter. These results are similar to individual reconstructions published previously (Patterson et al., 2020, 2021). Interpretation of the Greenland firn air measurements is complicated by challenges in modeling enrichment induced by pore close-off at these sites. We used observations of neon enrichment at NEEM and Summit to tune the parameterization of enrichment induced by pore close-off in our firn air model. The joint reconstruction from the Greenland data shows H2 levels rising 30 % between 1950 and the late 1980s, reaching a maximum of 530 ppb. After 1990, reconstructed atmospheric H2 levels over Greenland are roughly constant, with a small decline of 3 % over the next 25 years. The reconstruction shows good agreement with the available flask measurements of H2 at high northern latitudes.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving climate model coupling through a complete mesh representation: a case study with E3SM (v1) and MOAB (v5.x)

One of the fundamental factors contributing to the spatiotemporal inaccuracy in climate modeling is the mapping of solution field data between different discretizations and numerical grids used in the coupled component models. The typical climate computational workflow involves evaluation and serialization of the remapping weights during the preprocessing step, which is then consumed by the coupled driver infrastructure during simulation to compute field projections. Tools like Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and TempestRemap offer capability to generate conservative remapping weights, while the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) that is utilized in many production climate models exposes functionality to make use of the operators to solve the coupled problem. However, such multistep processes present several hurdles in terms of the scientific workflow and impede research productivity. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a fully integrated infrastructure based on the Mesh Oriented datABase (MOAB) library, which allows for a complete description of the numerical grids and solution data used in each submodel. Through a scalable advancing-front intersection algorithm, the supermesh of the source and target grids are computed, which is then used to assemble the high-order, conservative, and monotonicity-preserving remapping weights between discretization specifications. The Fortran-compatible interfaces in MOAB are utilized to directly link the submodels in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to enable online remapping strategies in order to simplify the coupled workflow process. We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of the remapping algorithms in comparison with other state-of-the-science tools and present strong scaling results on large-scale machines for computing remapping weights between the spectral element atmosphere and finite volume discretizations on the polygonal ocean grids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

CSAPR2 CMAC 2.0 level c1 data.

Raw data from ARM precipitation radars must be corrected for atmospheric phenomena and instrument characteristics (e.g., attenuation, clutter) to retrieve precipitation properties. The Corrected Moments in Antenna Coordinates Version 2 (CMAC2) value-added product (VAP) is a set of algorithms and code that does such corrections, and it also retrieves precipitation quantities from the radar measurements. Similar to the X-SAPR radars at the ARM main site, C-SAPR2 radar data also needs corrections and improvements. CMAC 2.0 has been updated to work with the ARM C-SAPR 2 radar. Data and fields that have been processed to: correct for velocity aliasing, unfold and generate a cross-polarimetric phase difference that is monotonically increasing, removing impulses caused by non-uniform beam filling and phase shift on backscatter, recalculate specific differential phase using a 20-point Sobel filter on the aforementioned phase, correct for liquid path attenuation using the polarimetric signals, estimate rainfall rates at the gate using the specific attenuation. In addition, CMAC writes the data out into a community-standard format netCDF File using the CF/Radial conventions. The data are therefore compatible with new and existing National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) tools such as RadXConvert for converting to a variety of popular file formats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Apparatus, system and method for highlighting activity-induced change in multi-pass synthetic aperture radar imagery

Described herein are various technologies relating to constructing a differenced change product (DCP) image. A plurality of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of a scene are generated based upon radar signals directed towards and reflected off of the scene, and a plurality of coherence change detection (CCD) images of the scene are generated based upon the SAR images. The CCD images are registered with one another, and their pixel values re-scaled according to a monotonic mapping function. The DCP image is generated based upon a computed pixel-wise difference between a pair of the re-scaled CCD images. The DCP image identifies locations in the scene where human activity-induced change is likely to have occurred between a pair of SAR passes of the scene.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A ``Tail" of Two Cities: Fatality-based Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution in New York City and Cook County, IL

I describe $SIR$ modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in two U.S. urban environments, New York City (NYC) and Cook County, IL, from onset through the month of June, 2020. Since testing was not widespread early in the pandemic in the U.S., I do not use data on confirmed cases and rely solely on public fatality data to estimate model parameters. Fits to the first 20 days of data determine a degenerate combination of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, and the mean time to removal from the infectious population, $\gamma^{-1}$, with $\gamma (R_0-1) = 0.25 (0.21)$ inverse days for NYC (Cook County). Equivalently, the initial doubling time was $t_d = 2.8 (3.4)$ days for NYC (Cook). The early fatality data suggest that both locations had infections in early February. I model the mitigation measures implemented in mid-March in both locations (distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc) via a time-dependent reproduction number $R_t$ that declines monotonically from $R_0$ to a sma ller asymptotic value, with a parameterized functional form. The timing (mid-March) and duration (several days) of the transitions in $R_t$ appear well determined by the data. However, the fatality data determine only a degenerate combination of the parameters $R_0$, the percentage reduction in social contact due to mitigation measures, $X$, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), $f$. With flat priors, based on simulations the NYC model parameters have 95.45\% credible intervals of $R_0 = 3.0-5.4$, $X= 80-99.9\%$ and $f=2-6\%$, with $5-13\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. A strong external prior indicating a lower value of $f$ or of $\gamma^{-1}$ would imply lower values of $R_0$ and $X$ and higher percentage infection of the population. For Cook County, the evolution was qualitatively different: after mitigation measures were implemented, the daily fatality counts reached a plateau for about a month before tailing off. This is consistent with an $SIR$ model that exhibits ``critical slowing-down", in which $R_t$ plateaus ! at a value just above unity. For Cook County, the 95.45\% credible intervals for the model parameters are much broader and shifted downward, $R_0=1.4-4.7$, $X=26-54\%$, and $f=0.1-0.6\%$ with $15-88\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. Despite the apparently lower efficacy of its social contact reduction measures, Cook County has had significantly fewer fatalities per population than NYC, $D_\infty/N=100$ vs. 270 per 100,000. In the model, this is attributed to the lower inferred IFR for Cook; an external prior pointing to similar values of the IFR for the two locations would instead chalk up the difference in $D/N$ to differences in the relative growth rate of the disease. I derive a model-dependent threshold, $X^{crit}_e$, for `safe' re-opening, that is, for easing of contact reduction that would not trigger a second wave; for NYC, the models predict that increasing social contact by more than 20\% from post-mitigation levels will lead to renewed spread, while for Cook County the threshold value is very uncertain, given the parameter degeneracies. The timing of 2nd-wave growth will depend on the amplitude of contact increase relative to $X^{crit}_e$ and on the asymptotic growth rate, and the impact in terms of fatalities will depend on the parameter $f$.

Frieman, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Kalai-Smorodinsky solution for many-objective Bayesian optimization

An ongoing aim of research in multiobjective Bayesian optimization is to extend its applicability to a large number of objectives. While coping with a limited budget of evaluations, recovering the set of optimal compromise solutions generally requires numerous observations and is less interpretable since this set tends to grow larger with the number of objectives. We thus propose to focus on a specific solution originating from game theory, the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, which possesses attractive properties. In particular, it ensures equal marginal gains over all objectives. We further make it insensitive to a monotonic transformation of the objectives by considering the objectives in the copula space. A novel tailored algorithm is proposed to search for the solution, in the form of a Bayesian optimization algorithm: sequential sampling decisions are made based on acquisition functions that derive from an instrumental Gaussian process prior. Our approach is tested on four problems with respectively four, six, eight, and nine objectives. The method is available in the R package GPGame available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/package=GPGame.

Game theory↗