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DOE OSTI2023

Diagnosing Near-Surface Model Errors with Candidate Physics Parameterization Schemes for the Multiphysics Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Ensemble during Winter over the Northeastern United States and Southern Great Plains

Abstract During the winter of 2020/21 an ensemble of FV3-LAM forecasts was produced over the contiguous United States for the Winter Weather Experiment using five physics suites. These forecasts are evaluated with the goal of optimizing physics parameterizations within the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) realm and for selecting suitable physics suites for a multiphysics RRFS ensemble. The five physics suites have different combinations of land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, and surface layer schemes, chosen from those used in current and possible future operational systems and likely to be supported in the operational UFS. Full-season evaluation reveals a persistent near-surface cold bias in the U.S. Northeast from one suite and a nighttime warm bias in the southern Great Plains in another suite, while other suites have smaller biases. A representative case is chosen to diagnose the cause for each of these biases using sensitivity simulations with different physics combinations or modified parameters and verified with additional mesonet observations. The cold bias in the Northeast is attributed to aspects of the Noah-MP LSM over snow cover, where Noah-MP simulates lower soil water content, and thus lower thermal conductivity than other LSMs, leading to less upward ground heat flux during nighttime and consequently lower surface temperature. The nighttime warm bias found in the southern Great Plains is attributed to overestimation of vertical mixing in the K -profile-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (K-EDMF) PBL scheme and insufficient land–atmospheric coupling from the GFS surface layer scheme over short vegetation. A few key parameters driving these systematic biases are identified.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2015

Composition of the core from gallium metal–silicate partitioning experiments

We present gallium concentration (normalized to CI chondrites) in the mantle is at the same level as that of lithophile elements with similar volatility, implying that there must be little to no gallium in Earth's core. Metal-silicate partitioning experiments, however, have shown that gallium is a moderately siderophile element and should be therefore depleted in the mantle by core formation. Moreover, gallium concentrations in the mantle (4 ppm) are too high to be only brought by the late veneer; and neither pressure, nor temperature, nor silicate composition has a large enough effect on gallium partitioning to make it lithophile. We therefore systematically investigated the effect of core composition (light element content) on the partitioning of gallium by carrying out metal–silicate partitioning experiments in a piston–cylinder press at 2 GPa between 1673 K and 2073 K. Four light elements (Si, O, S, C) were considered, and their effect was found to be sufficiently strong to make gallium lithophile. The partitioning of gallium was then modeled and parameterized as a function of pressure, temperature, redox and core composition. A continuous core formation model was used to track the evolution of gallium partitioning during core formation, for various magma ocean depths, geotherms, core light element contents, and magma ocean composition (redox) during accretion. The only model for which the final gallium concentration in the silicate Earth matched the observed value is the one involving a light-element rich core equilibrating in a FeO-rich deep magma ocean (>1300 km) with a final pressure of at least 50 GPa. More specifically, the incorporation of S and C in the core provided successful models only for concentrations that lie far beyond their allowable cosmochemical or geophysical limits, whereas realistic O and Si amounts (less than 5 wt.%) in the core provided successful models for magma oceans deeper that 1300 km. In conclusion, these results offer a strong argument for an O- and Si-rich core, formed in a deep terrestrial magma ocean, along with oxidizing conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tropical Cirrus in Global Storm-Resolving Models: 1. Role of Deep Convection

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top-of-atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high-resolution global storm-resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Intermodel differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that, with further improvements, global storm-resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser-resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis

Earth system models have predicted that there will be more frequent and severe precipitation and drought events in terrestrial ecosystems. Microbially mediated decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) tends to increase as soils wet and decrease as soils dry. However, the long-term SOC change under intensified moisture extremes remains poorly known as it depends on the frequency and intensity of soil drying and wetting. In this study, we explored long-term SOC dynamics under scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles using the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model, a mechanistic microbial model. The model was parameterized with 11 years of observations from a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest site, showing satisfactory model performance in both model calibration (R 2 = 0.67) and validation (R 2 = 0.69) against heterotrophic respiration. We then used the model to simulate the long-term SOC dynamics under five scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles with different frequencies and severities over a period of 100 years. Results showed that the changes in active microbial biomass C and the corresponding turnover rates of SOC pools were more sensitive to soil drying than soil wetting. As a result, the cumulative soil carbon emission from microbial respiration decreased by 433.7 g C m -2 after the 100-year simulation in the highest frequency and intensity moisture scenario, but was not significantly affected by the lowest frequency and intensity scenario. This study emphasizes the nonlinear response of SOC decomposition to soil moisture changes, which causes decreased decomposition by microbes under drying that is, not compensated by increased decomposition under wetting conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Internally heated mantle convection and the thermal and degassing history of the earth

An internally heated model of parameterized whole mantle convection with viscosity dependent on temperature and volatile content is examined. The model is run for 4l6 Gyr, and temperature, heat flow, degassing and regassing rates, stress, and viscosity are calculated. A nominal case is established which shows good agreement with accepted mantle values. The effects of changing various parameters are also tested. All cases show rapid cooling early in the planet's history and strong self-regulation of viscosity due to the temperature and volatile-content dependence. The effects of weakly stress-dependent viscosity are examined within the bounds of this model and are found to be small. Mantle water is typically outgassed rapidly to reach an equilibrium concentration on a time scale of less than 200 Myr for almost all models, the main exception being for models which start out with temperatures well below the melting temperature.

Williams, David R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

meteoric flux↗

DOE OSTI2019

Real-Time Ice Nuclei Measurements at Oliktok Point Field Campaign Report

The ability of atmospheric particles (aerosols) to serve as heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) for formation of ice and mixed-phase clouds is one of the least understood microphysical processes resulting in large uncertainties in climate modeling. As stated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report, “The effects of aerosol particles on heterogeneous ice formation are currently insufficiently understood and present another level of challenge for both observations and modeling.” IN can strongly affect cloud radiative properties and precipitation formation. Only a small fraction (often less than 1%) of all aerosol particles act as atmospheric IN. Therefore, it becomes important to identify the active fraction of aerosol particles under a variety of environmental conditions. Proposed IN measurement techniques provide IN concentrations as a function of temperature and humidity conditions, and this unique data set can be analyzed to develop or constrain IN parameterizations that models rely on to calculate primary ice formation. Currently, the processes of ice formation within models are poorly represented, such that climate models often inaccurately partition cloud water between liquid and solid ice. Model studies have shown that uncertainties in cloud phase partitioning induce large uncertainties in the impact of mixedphase clouds on climate change. Arctic clouds composed of ice particles and supercooled liquid droplets at temperatures warmer than -37°C are important for the Arctic’s climate because of their extensive horizontal coverage over long periods, and their impact on the surface radiative balance and thus ice sheet coverage. The complexity of microphysical processes within these clouds and the sensitivity of precipitation to the details of microphysics are not fully understood. In addition, representation of these processes in a variety of cloud models continues to be challenging. Arctic clouds provide unique conditions to understand heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms, particularly immersion freezing, and will be the initial focus of the ice nucleation group. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)-North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site is well equipped with other aerosol measurement (number concentration, size) instruments, and a relationship among long-term IN measurements and aerosol physical and chemical properties under different environmental conditions can be identified and established. The long-term IN measurements will be critical for understanding the ice nucleation process in response to the seasonal variations of aerosol and developing robust ice nucleation parameterizations for cloud and climate models. In the future, IN measurements could also be made at other ARM-NSA sites, specifically, Oliktok Point.

Arctic processes (meteorology), Oliktok Point, aer↗

DOE OSTI2015

An analysis of the operational GFS simplified Arakawa Schubert parameterization within a WRF framework: A Hurricane Sandy (2012) long‐term track forecast perspective

Abstract Hurricane Sandy (2012) is known as an incredibly destructive storm and one defined meteorologically by its large size, and its significant forecast track spreads among various operational models roughly 1 week before landfall. While the operational European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model accurately depicted a northeastern United States landfall, the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model consistently forecast a track toward the North Atlantic Ocean. Using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model framework, Bassill ( ) suggested that these differences were primarily a function of differences between the two models' cumulus parameterization (CP). This study also uses a WRF model framework to examine the simplified Arakawa Schubert CP used in the GFS model. It is found that increasing the deep convective entrainment coefficient produces more realistic forecast tracks for forecasts initialized roughly 1 week before landfall. This occurs through a reorientation of the precipitation (and associated latent heating) around Sandy during a critical time period in which it was interacting with a series of upper troughs to its west and northwest. Reorienting the latent heating reshapes the upper tropospheric steering pattern toward the one that is more negatively tilted and consistent with observations.

Bassill, Nick P.↗

DOE OSTI2014

WE-A-17A-04: Development of An Ultra-Fast Monte Carlo Dose Engine for High Dose Rate Brachytherapy

Purpose: Current clinical brachytherapy dose calculations are based on AAPM TG43 guidelines, which approximate the patient geometry as a large water phantom. This ignores heterogeneities and tends to overestimate skin dose. Although Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculations have been recognized as the most accurate method, its associated long computational time is a major bottleneck for routine clinical applications. This work aims to develop a GPU-based ultra-fast MC dose engine (gBMC) for HDR brachytherapy to provide clinical users with accurate sub-minute dose calculations. Methods: Standard photon transport with discrete events including: Compton scattering, Rayleigh scattering and Photoelectric effect, was implemented. Secondary electrons were transported under the continuous slowing down approximation. To reduce the GPU thread divergence, photons and electrons were separately transported. Transport of photons was grouped according to energy. The source model in gBMC can be either a phase-space file generated using Geant4 or a parameterized source model. This dose engine was validated against TG43 in a water phantom and against Geant4 calculations in heterogeneous patient geometries. Results: A phase space file was generated for the Varian VS2000 Ir-192 source. In a water phantom, the calculated radial dose function was within 0.6% of the TG43 calculations for radial distances from 1 cm to 20 cm. The anisotropy functions were within 1% for radial distances from 1 cm to 20 cm except for polar angles larger than 173°. Local point-dose differences were within 2%. In a Mammosite breast cancer case with 22 dwell locations, gBMC and Geant4 isodose lines compared well. The computation time was about 28 seconds using the phase-space file source and 20 seconds using the parameterized source to simulate 1 billion particles, yielding less than 1% statistical uncertainty. Conclusion: The gBMC dose engine makes it possible to use fast and accurate MC dose calculations for clinical work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Importance of different parameterization changes for the updated dust cycle modeling in the Community Atmosphere Model (version 6.1)

Abstract. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6.1), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 2.1), simulates the life cycle (emission, transport, and deposition) of mineral dust and its interactions with physio-chemical components to quantify the impacts of dust on climate and the Earth system. The accuracy of such quantifications relies on how well dust-related processes are represented in the model. Here we update the parameterizations for the dust module, including those on the dust emission scheme, the aerosol dry deposition scheme, the size distribution of transported dust, and the treatment of dust particle shape. Multiple simulations were undertaken to evaluate the model performance against diverse observations, and to understand how each update alters the modeled dust cycle and the simulated dust direct radiative effect. The model–observation comparisons suggest that substantially improved model representations of the dust cycle are achieved primarily through the new more physically-based dust emission scheme. In comparison, the other modifications induced small changes to the modeled dust cycle and model–observation comparisons, except the size distribution of dust in the coarse mode, which can be even more influential than that of replacing the dust emission scheme. We highlight which changes introduced here are important for which regions, shedding light on further dust model developments required for more accurately estimating interactions between dust and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Tao, W. K.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Recasting a model atomistic glassformer as a system of icosahedra

We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of icosahedral structures. Upon cooling, these icosahedra organize into mesoclusters. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra which we describe with a population dynamics model. This model we parameterize with data from the temperature regime accessible to molecular dynamics simulations. We then use the model to determine the population of icosahedra in mesoclusters at arbitrary temperature. Using simulation data to incorporate dynamics into the model, we predict relaxation behavior at temperatures inaccessible to conventional approaches. Our model predicts super-Arrhenius dynamics whose relaxation time remains finite for non-zero temperature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evolutionary reinforcement learning of dynamical large deviations

In this work, we show how to bound and calculate the likelihood of dynamical large deviations using evolutionary reinforcement learning. An agent, a stochastic model, propagates a continuous-time Monte Carlo trajectory and receives a reward conditioned upon the values of certain path-extensive quantities. Evolution produces progressively fitter agents, potentially allowing the calculation of a piece of a large-deviation rate function for a particular model and path-extensive quantity. For models with small state spaces, the evolutionary process acts directly on rates, and for models with large state spaces, the process acts on the weights of a neural network that parameterizes the model's rates. This approach shows how path-extensive physics problems can be considered within a framework widely used in machine learning.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Water and vapor transport in algal‐fungal lichen: Modeling constrained by laboratory experiments, an application for Flavoparmelia caperata

ABSTRACT Algal‐fungal symbionts share water, nutrients, and gases via an architecture unique to lichens. Because lichen activity is controlled by moisture dynamics, understanding water transport is prerequisite to understand their fundamental biology. We propose a model of water distributions within foliose lichens governed by laws of fluid motion. Our model differentiates between water stored in symbionts, on extracellular surfaces, and in distinct morphological layers. We parameterize our model with hydraulic properties inverted from laboratory measurements of Flavoparmelia caperata and validate for wetting and drying. We ask: (1) Where is the bottleneck to water transport? (2) How do hydration and dehydration dynamics differ? and (3) What causes these differences? Resistance to vapor flow is concentrated at thallus surfaces and acts as the bottleneck for equilibrium, while internal resistances are small. The model captures hysteresis in hydration and desiccation, which are shown to be controlled by nonlinearities in hydraulic capacitance. Muting existing nonlinearities slowed drying and accelerated wetting, while exaggerating nonlinearities accelerated drying and slowed wetting. The hydraulic nonlinearity of F. caperata is considerable, which may reflect its preference for humid and stable environments. The model establishes the physical foundation for future investigations of transport of water, gas, and sugar between symbionts.

Potkay, Aaron↗

NASA NTRS1978

The signature of H/+/ in the equatorial anomaly - An empirical model

Ion composition data from the OGO-6 satellite are used to develop an empirical model of the H(+) signature in the equatorial anomaly. The empirical model is an attempt to represent the generally repeatable details of the satellite data by a parameterized numerical model accounting for such variables as the altitude, local time and longitude of the observations. Although the resulting model is in general agreement with past findings on the variability of the equatorial anomaly phenomenon, there appears to be a complexity of short-term or narrowly localized variations which cannot be adequately understood on the basis of data from a single satellite.

Taylor, H. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Development of a rotorcraft. Propulsion dynamics interface analysis, volume 2

A study was conducted to establish a coupled rotor/propulsion analysis that would be applicable to a wide range of rotorcraft systems. The effort included the following tasks: (1) development of a model structure suitable for simulating a wide range of rotorcraft configurations; (2) defined a methodology for parameterizing the model structure to represent a particular rotorcraft; (3) constructing a nonlinear coupled rotor/propulsion model as a test case to use in analyzing coupled system dynamics; and (4) an attempt to develop a mostly linear coupled model derived from the complete nonlinear simulations. Documentation of the computer models developed is presented.

Hull, R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: Learning from Model-Observation Syntheses

Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales. This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we address questions surrounding four key themes: gas-phase chemistry, aerosol chemistry, regional climate and chemistry interactions, and natural and anthropogenic emissions. We expect this review to serve as a guidance for future modeling efforts.

atmospheric chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Warm Dark Matter and Population III Stars with the Global 21 cm Signal

Upcoming ground- and space-based experiments may have sufficient accuracy to place significant constraints upon high-redshift star formation, Reionization, and dark matter (DM) using the global 21 cm signal of the intergalactic medium. In the early universe, when the relative abundance of low-mass DM halos was important, measuring the global signal would place constraints on the damping of structure formation caused by DM having a higher relic velocity (warm dark matter, or WDM) than in cold dark matter. Such damping, however, can be mimicked by altering the star formation efficiency (SFE) and can be difficult to detect because of the presence of Population III stars with unknown properties. We study these various cases and their degeneracies with the WDM mass parameter mX using a Fisher matrix analysis. We study the mX = 7 keV case and a star formation model that parameterizes the SFE as a strong function of halo mass and include several variations of this model along with three different input noise levels for the likelihood; we also use a minimum halo virial temperature for collapse near the molecular cooling threshold. We find that when the likelihood includes only Population II stars, mX is constrained to an uncertainty of ∼0.4 keV for all models and noise levels at the 68% confidence level. When the likelihood includes weak Population III stars, mX ∼ 0.3 keV, and if Population III star formation is relatively efficient, mX ∼ 0.1 keV uncertainty, with tight Population III star formation parameter constraints. Our results show that the global 21 cm signal is a promising test-bed for WDM models, even in the presence of strong degeneracies with astrophysical parameters.

Cosmology↗