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At least 685 records · Page 38

Improving Tornado Casualty Predictions in the US With Population Exposure Data and A Modified Social Vulnerability Index

Tornadoes are frequent and widespread events that often account for hundreds of injuries and fatalities, and millions of dollars in damages. Multiple studies have analyzed tornado climatology and associated exposure; however, fewer have focused on predicting fatalities and injuries by coupling geospatial data on tornado characteristics and underlying social and economic vulnerability. In this study, we test the ability of negative binomial regression models to predict tornado-induced injuries and fatalities by coupling data on physical characteristics of tornadoes, exposure of populations, and underlying social vulnerability. We also present a modified spatially weighted social vulnerability index SVI* wt . We used 10-year (2005-2014) tornado data over the continental United States for this analysis. The results of this study indicate that the tornado length, magnitude and nocturnality seem to be the major hazard-related indicators of fatalities (McFadden’s Pseudo- R 2 ranged from 0.01-0.12). Population exposure and SVI* wt are positive and statistically significant in predicting tornado related fatalities and injuries (Pseudo R 2 of 0.11-0.18). Although combining SVI* wt with hazard variables does not substantially improve model fit when compared to adding population exposure, combining SVI* wt , hazard and exposure results in better predictions of both injuries and fatalities (Pseudo R 2 of 0.17) and is also an improvement on previous similar studies.

disaster↗

PMT F7 Silver Standard Material Properties Characterization

PMT F7 epoxy resin was characterized to capture the material's thermochemical and thermo-mechanical properties. DSC testing was performed and the data was used to develop a cure kinetics model which predicts the material cure response and specific heat capacity. TMA and DMA testing were performed and the data was used to develop thermo-mechanical models which predict the material CTE, cure shrinkage, and modulus evolution with cure. Convergent Manufacturing Technologies US determined test parameters, analyzed data, and performed model fitting. NASA completed tests and provided data to Convergent Manufacturing Technologies US.

Epoxy↗

On-Orbit Spatial Performance Characterization for Thermal Infrared Imagers of Landsat 7, 8, and 9, ECOSTRESS and CTI

In this analysis of the spatial resolving power of thermal imagery products we focus on four satellite instruments that are used in research and applications, for example to monitor land surface temperature and derive evapotranspiration. These are thermal imagers on Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and Landsat 9, as well as the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). We compiled sets of close-in-time, day-time images of bridges surrounded by open water bodies, captured by each of the satellite imagers during cloud-free moments. Where possible, we also included some images captured by the Compact Thermal Imager (CTI), a technology demonstrator that was co-located with ECOSTRESS on the International Space Station in 2019. Bridges were found to provide a sufficient thermal contrast with the water surface to quantify the line-spread function of satellite-based thermal products. The full-width-at-half-max of a gaussian beam model fitted to this transect quantifies the on-orbit spatial resolution of different imagers. The results show some loss of spatial resolving power in the final product delivered to end-users as compared to the at-sensor characterization of spatial resolution. For Landsat 7, 8 and 9, the spatial resolution of the thermal bands is 1.5 times the ground sampling distance of 60 m and 100 m respectively. For the ECOSTRESS the difference is up to twice the sampling distance of 78 by 69 m2. Since spatial resolution is a main driver for instrument design it is important to understand and communicate this discrepancy between pre-flight design parameters and the characteristics of the surface imagery delivered to the user community. The goal of this research is to facilitate an improved fusion of current and future satellite observations into harmonized products with superior temporal and spatial characteristics.

thermal infrared↗

X-Ray Polarization From the Atoll 4U 1735−44 Suggests a Low Inclination

X-ray polarimetry is a new tool capable of probing the geometry of accretion onto weakly magnetized neutron stars. Here we present the first X-ray spectro-polarimetric results from coordinated observations of the atoll source 4U 1735−44, conducted with the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), NICER, and NuSTAR . Over the 2–8 keV energy range, we obtained a marginal detection of polarization with the polarization degree of 1.4% ± 0.7% and polarization angle of −29◦ ± 14◦, corresponding to a 3σ upper limit on the polarization degree of 3.5%. The best-fit model to describe the spectrum comprises a thermal component associated with the accretion disk, a Comptonized black body component, and a relativistic reflection component. From the reflection model, we infer a disk inclination of ∼40◦. The spectroscopic and polarimetric properties of 4U 1735−44 are consistent with those observed in other atoll sources studied by IXPE, with its low polarization likely due to its low inclination

X-rays: binaries↗

Constraining GREA, an alternative theory accounting for the present cosmic acceleration

The origin of the Universe's late-time accelerated expansion remains unknown. The General Relativistic Entropic Acceleration (GREA) theory offers a compelling alternative to $Λ$CDM, attributing cosmic acceleration to entropy growth associated with cosmic and black hole horizons, without invoking a cosmological constant. We test GREA against the latest DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), multiple Type Ia supernova compilations (Union3, Pantheon$\texttt{+}$, DES-SN5YR), and cosmic microwave background (CMB) distance measurements. While GREA is not nested within $Λ$CDM, it achieves a comparable goodness-of-fit, highlighting its potential as a theoretically motivated framework that circumvents some of the fine-tuning issues of the standard $Λ$CDM cosmology. We find that the best-fit model features a transient phantom crossing at $z \lesssim 2$, with $w_a\equiv \mathrm{d} w(a=1)/\mathrm{d}a \simeq-0.3$, in good agreement with observations. However, its present-day value $w_0\equiv w(z=0)$ is tightly constrained to be $w_0\simeq-1$. Upcoming low-redshift (i.e. $z < 1$) cosmological probes, from both background and perturbations, will offer promising avenues for further exploring the viability of the GREA theory.

Calderon, R. [Prague, Inst. Phys.] (ORCID:00000002↗

Fitting a Two-Component Scattering Model to Polarimetric SAR Data from Forests

Two simple scattering mechanisms are fitted to polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations of forests. The mechanisms are canopy scatter from a reciprocal medium with azimuthal symmetry and a ground scatter term that can represent double-bounce scatter from a pair of orthogonal surfaces with different dielectric constants or Bragg scatter from a moderately rough surface, which is seen through a layer of vertically oriented scatterers. The model is shown to represent the behavior of polarimetric backscatter from a tropical forest and two temperate forest sites by applying it to data from the National Aeronautic and Space Agency/Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Airborne SAR (AIRSAR) system. Scattering contributions from the two basic scattering mechanisms are estimated for clusters of pixels in polarimetric SAR images. The solution involves the estimation of four parameters from four separate equations. This model fit approach is justified as a simplification of more complicated scattering models, which require many inputs to solve the forward scattering problem. The model is used to develop an understanding of the ground-trunk double-bounce scattering that is present in the data, which is seen to vary considerably as a function of incidence angle. Two parameters in the model fit appear to exhibit sensitivity to vegetation canopy structure, which is worth further exploration. Results from the model fit for the ground scattering term are compared with estimates from a forward model and shown to be in good agreement. The behavior of the scattering from the ground-trunk interaction is consistent with the presence of a pseudo-Brewster angle effect for the air-trunk scattering interface. If the Brewster angle is known, it is possible to directly estimate the real part of the dielectric constant of the trunks, a key variable in forward modeling of backscatter from forests. It is also shown how, with a priori knowledge of the forest height, an estimate for the attenuation coefficient of the canopy can be obtained directly from the multi-incidence-angle polarimetric observations. This attenuation coefficient is another key variable in forward models and is generally related to the canopy density.

temperate forests↗

Fitting a three-component scattering model to polarimetric SAR data

A new technique for fitting a three-component scattering mechanism model to the polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data itself, without utilizing any ground truth measurements, is presented. The three scattering mechanism components included in the model are volume scatter from randomly oriented dipoles, first-order Bragg surface scatter and a dihedral scattering mechanism for two surfaces with different dielectric constants. The model fit yields an estimate of the contribution to the total backscatter of each of the three components. The backscatter contributions can also be compared to give the relative percentage weight of each. The model fit has an equal number of input parameters (the polarimetric radar backscatter measurements) and output parameters (the backscatter parameters describing them). The model can be applied to entire images or to small areas within an image to give a first-order estimate of the relevant scattering mechanisms. The model was applied to many C-, L- and P-band Airborne SAR (AIRSAR) images of different types of terrain. Results were presented at the workshop.

Freeman, A.↗

Analysis of helium-rich subdwarf O stars. 1: NLTE models, methods, and fits for 21 Palomar Green survey sdOs

Atmospheric parameters for 21 helium-rich hot subdwarf O stars from the Palomar Green survey are found from fits of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) models to optical spectra. About 250 new NLTE models in the parameter range T(sub eff) from 35,000 to 65,000 K, log (g) from 4.0 to 6.5, and epsilon(He) from 50% He to 99% He have been calculated. A fit for each object is presented. Estimated distances and luminosities are calculated, assuming a mass of 0.5 solar masses. Large distances above the Galactic plane are found, and this implies that the majority of the sdO stars belong to a different stellar population than the sdB, planetary nebulae and white dwarf stars. Possibilities may include the halo and a 'thick disk.' Kinematical data from the literature are also discussed in view of the found distances. Five of the stars have been observed, modeled, and analyzed by Dreizler et al., and significant differences exist between their results and ours for these stars. The reason for these differences is not yet known, but the problem does not alter the conclusions about population membership that we present.

Thejll, P.↗

A Redox-Electrodialysis Model with Zero Fitting Parameters: Insights into Process Limitations, Design, and Material Interventions

Redox-Electrodialysis (r-ED) is an electrochemical desalination cell architecture that has recently received considerable interest, due to its low energy demand relative to electrochemical desalination technologies that rely on electrode-based ion removal. To further improve the energy efficiency of r-ED, we developed a lumped mathematical model with no adjustable parameters to investigate the various sources of overpotential within the cell. Existing models of electrodialysis and r-ED cells either do not accurately incorporate all phenomena contributing to the overpotential or utilize empirical fitting parameters. The model developed here indicates that ohmic overpotentials, especially in the diluate chamber, are the most significant contributors to energy losses. Based on this insight, we hypothesized that adding an ion exchange resin wafer in the diluate compartment would increase the ionic conductivity and decrease the energy demand. Experimental results showed an 18% reduction in specific energy use while achieving the same degree of salt removal (20 mM to 12 mM). Furthermore, the resin wafer enabled complete desalination to potable drinking levels at a current density previously unachievable within practical operating voltage limits (4.93 mA cm -2 ). We also expanded the model to explore differences in r-ED energy use between configurations using multiple cells and a single cell with increased area.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

RUDR: A New Paradigm for Model Extraction and Fitting

This paper describes a new algorithmic paradigm for solving problems where a model is extracted from or it to data. This paradigm has numerous applications, particularly in computer vision.

algorithmic computer vision RUDR↗

Rejection Sampling with Autodifferentiation -- Case study: Fitting a Hadronization Model

We present an autodifferentiable rejection sampling algorithm termed Rejection Sampling with Autodifferentiation (RSA). In conjunction with reweighting, we show that RSA can be used for efficient parameter estimation and model exploration. Additionally, this approach facilitates the use of unbinned machine-learning-based observables, allowing for more precise, data-driven fits. To showcase these capabilities, we apply an RSA-based parameter fit to a simplified hadronization model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR Modeling Applications

Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models for the purpose of forecasting and describing the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Incorporating these data can greatly stabilize a compartmental model fit on early observations, where slight perturbations in the data may lead to model fits that forecast wildly unrealistic peak infection. We introduce a new method for incorporating historic data on the value and time of peak incidence of hospitalization into the fit for a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model by formulating the relationship between an SIR model’s starting parameters and peak incidence as a system of two equations that can be solved computationally. We demonstrate how to calculate SIR parameter estimates – which describe disease dynamics such as transmission and recovery rates – using this method, and determine that there is a noticeable loss in accuracy whenever prevalence data is misspecified as incidence data. To exhibit the modeling potential, we update the Dirichlet-Beta State Space modeling framework to use hospital incidence data, as this framework was previously formulated to incorporate only data on total infections. This approach is assessed for practicality in terms of accuracy and speed of computation via simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling for Aero Vehicles: Fractional Order Fits

Atmospheric turbulence models are necessary for the design of both inlet/engine and flight controls, as well as for studying coupling between the propulsion and the vehicle structural dynamics for supersonic vehicles. Models based on the Kolmogorov spectrum have been previously utilized to model atmospheric turbulence. In this paper, a more accurate model is developed in its representative fractional order form, typical of atmospheric disturbances. This is accomplished by first scaling the Kolmogorov spectral to convert them into finite energy von Karman forms and then by deriving an explicit fractional circuit-filter type analog for this model. This circuit model is utilized to develop a generalized formulation in frequency domain to approximate the fractional order with the products of first order transfer functions, which enables accurate time domain simulations. The objective of this work is as follows. Given the parameters describing the conditions of atmospheric disturbances, and utilizing the derived formulations, directly compute the transfer function poles and zeros describing these disturbances for acoustic velocity, temperature, pressure, and density. Time domain simulations of representative atmospheric turbulence can then be developed by utilizing these computed transfer functions together with the disturbance frequencies of interest.

Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling↗

The conical fit approach to modeling ionospheric total electron content

The Global Positioning System (GPS) can be used to measure the integrated electron density along raypaths between satellites and receivers. Such measurements may, in turn, be used to construct regional and global maps of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC). Maps are generated by fitting measurements to an assumed ionospheric model.

ionosphere WAAS GPS TEC↗

Aeroelastic modeling for the FIT (Functional Integration Technology) team F/A-18 simulation

As part of Langley Research Center's commitment to developing multidisciplinary integration methods to improve aerospace systems, the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team was established to perform dynamics integration research using an existing aircraft configuration, the F/A-18. An essential part of this effort has been the development of a comprehensive simulation modeling capability that includes structural, control, and propulsion dynamics as well as steady and unsteady aerodynamics. The structural and unsteady aerodynamics contributions come from an aeroelastic mode. Some details of the aeroelastic modeling done for the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team research are presented. Particular attention is given to work done in the area of correction factors to unsteady aerodynamics data.

Zeiler, Thomas A.↗

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗

Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling for Aerospace Vehicles: Fractional Order Fit

An improved model for simulating atmospheric disturbances is disclosed. A scale Kolmogorov spectral may be scaled to convert the Kolmogorov spectral into a finite energy von Karman spectral and a fractional order pole-zero transfer function (TF) may be derived from the von Karman spectral. Fractional order atmospheric turbulence may be approximated with an integer order pole-zero TF fit, and the approximation may be stored in memory.

Kopasakis, George↗

Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling for Aero Vehicles: Fractional Order Fits

Atmospheric turbulence models are necessary for the design of both inlet/engine and flight controls, as well as for studying coupling between the propulsion and the vehicle structural dynamics for supersonic vehicles. Models based on the Kolmogorov spectrum have been previously utilized to model atmospheric turbulence. In this paper, a more accurate model is developed in its representative fractional order form, typical of atmospheric disturbances. This is accomplished by first scaling the Kolmogorov spectral to convert them into finite energy von Karman forms and then by deriving an explicit fractional circuit-filter type analog for this model. This circuit model is utilized to develop a generalized formulation in frequency domain to approximate the fractional order with the products of first order transfer functions, which enables accurate time domain simulations. The objective of this work is as follows. Given the parameters describing the conditions of atmospheric disturbances, and utilizing the derived formulations, directly compute the transfer function poles and zeros describing these disturbances for acoustic velocity, temperature, pressure, and density. Time domain simulations of representative atmospheric turbulence can then be developed by utilizing these computed transfer functions together with the disturbance frequencies of interest.

Kopasakis, George↗