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NASA NTRS1993

Feasibility study: Monodisperse polymer particles containing laser-excitable dyes

The optical properties associated with small particles, which include aerosols, hydrosols and solid microspheres have an impact on several areas of science and engineering. Since the advent of high-speed computers and lasers, the interaction of light with matter in the form of small particles with a discontinuous optical boundary relative to the surroundings has been much better understood. Various nonlinear optical effects have been observed involving interaction of a laser beam with both solid microspheres and liquid microdroplets. These include observation of second and third harmonic generation, four wave mixing, optical visibility, two photon absorption, observation of stimulated emission and lasing, and Stimulated Raman Scattering. Many of these effects are observed with laser intensities which are orders of magnitude less than that required by threshold condition for interactions in macroscopic bulk medium. The primary reason for this is twofold. The front surface of the microsphere acts as a thick lens to enhance the internal intensity of the input laser radiation, and the spherical shape of the droplet acts as an optical cavity to provide feedback at specific wavelengths corresponding to the whispering gallery modes or the morphology dependent resonances (MDR's). The most interesting and significant recent finding in this field is undoubtedly the existence of resonance peaks in linear and nonlinear optical spectra. Such resonance peaks are only dependent on the particle morphology, which means the size, shape and refractive index of the particle. Because of the simultaneous presence of these resonances, they have been referred to by many names, including structural resonances, whispering modes or whispering gallery modes, creeping waves, circumferential waves, surfaces modes, and virtual modes. All of these names refer to the same phenomena, i.e. morphology dependent resonances (MDR's) which has already been described and predicted precisely by electromagnetic theory and Loentz-Mie theory since 1908. MDR's can become important when the particle size (radius a) approaches and exceeds the wavelength of the electromagnetic wave (lambda) and the refractive index of the particle is greater than that of the surrounding medium. Such resonances are easiest to observe from a single particle with high symmetry, such as a sphere, spheroid, or cylinder. MDR's correspond to solutions of the characteristic equations of the electromagnetic fields in the presence of a sphere.

Venkateswarlu, Putcha↗
NASA NTRS2009

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results

We report on the implications for cosmic inflation of the 2018 release of the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements. The results are fully consistent with those reported using the data from the two previous Planck cosmological releases, but have smaller uncertainties thanks to improvements in the characterization of polarization at low and high multipoles. Planck temperature, polarization, and lensing data determine the spectral index of scalar perturbations to be n s = 0.9649 ± 0.0042 at 68% CL. We find no evidence for a scale dependence of n s , either as a running or as a running of the running. The Universe is found to be consistent with spatial flatness with a precision of 0.4% at 95% CL by combining Planck with a compilation of baryon acoustic oscillation data. The Planck 95% CL upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r0.002 < 0.10, is further tightened by combining with the BICEP2/Keck Array BK15 data to obtain r 0.002 < 0.056. In the framework of standard single-field inflationary models with Einstein gravity, these results imply that: (a) the predictions of slow-roll models with a concave potential, V"(Φ) < 0, are increasingly favoured by the data; and (b) based on two different methods for reconstructing the inflaton potential, we find no evidence for dynamics beyond slow roll. Three different methods for the non-parametric reconstruction of the primordial power spectrum consistently confirm a pure power law in the range of comoving scales 0.005 Mpc -1 ≲ k ≲ 0.2 Mpc -1 . A complementary analysis also finds no evidence for theoretically motivated parameterized features in the Planck power spectra. For the case of oscillatory features that are logarithmic or linear in k, this result is further strengthened by a new combined analysis including the Planck bispectrum data. The new Planck polarization data provide a stringent test of the adiabaticity of the initial conditions for the cosmological fluctuations. In correlated, mixed adiabatic and isocurvature models, the non-adiabatic contribution to the observed CMB temperature variance is constrained to 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.7% at 95% CL for cold dark matter, neutrino density, and neutrino velocity, respectively. Planck power spectra plus lensing set constraints on the amplitude of compensated cold dark matter-baryon isocurvature perturbations that are consistent with current complementary measurements. The polarization data also provide improved constraints on inflationary models that predict a small statistically anisotropic quadupolar modulation of the primordial fluctuations. However, the polarization data do not support physical models for a scale-dependent dipolar modulation. All these findings support the key predictions of the standard single-field inflationary models, which will be further tested by future cosmological observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modular Processing of Flare Gas for Carbon Nanoproducts

This project demonstrated the technical viability and economic promise of a modular system for converting flared natural gas into valuable carbon nanoproducts (CNPs) through catalytic chemical vapor deposition (CVD). All major project milestones were successfully completed, including reactor design and commissioning, catalyst development, process optimization, technoeconomic analysis, and application testing in concrete systems. The overarching goal was to create a scalable, field-deployable process that valorizes stranded methane by producing high-value carbon materials for use in cementitious composites. At the lab scale, the team designed and built a fluidized bed reactor optimized for use with silica fume-supported nickel catalysts synthesized via atomic layer deposition (ALD). A statistically designed sintering study enabled precise tuning of nickel nanoparticle size, identifying the influence of oxygen partial pressure, time, and temperature on catalyst morphology and performance. These insights allowed the team to target catalyst conditions that maximize carbon nanofilament growth. Subsequent CVD experiments achieved up to 31.8 wt% carbon deposition under optimized conditions, with TEM confirming the presence of nanofilament structures and sustained hydrogen evolution during reaction. Reactor upgrades and empirical fluidization studies supported the development of reliable, repeatable experimental protocols. The modular pilot-scale skid reactor was fully constructed, instrumented, and commissioned. Capable of operating at 675–800°C and pressures up to 290 psig, the system was designed for continuous operation at a carbon production rate of 1 kg/hr. Initial demonstration runs confirmed solids handling, thermal control, and system leak-tightness, although a critical reactor component (the downfeed tube) was inadvertently omitted during final assembly. This omission limited gas–solid contact and prevented meaningful carbon deposition during pilot-scale CVD runs. Nonetheless, the system operated safely under design conditions, and the root cause of performance limitations was clearly identified. Complementary work on UHPC formulations demonstrated that small additions of carbon nanoproducts, including those derived from flare gas, can significantly enhance mechanical performance while preserving workability. A comprehensive study of CNF dispersion techniques and mix design optimization led to a clear protocol for integrating these nanomaterials into concrete. Incorporation of CNPs improved flexural toughness and reduced porosity, supporting their use in high-performance infrastructure applications. A technoeconomic analysis (TEA) confirmed that this process can produce CNP-loaded catalyst material at a levelized cost below $\$$7/kg across a range of catalyst loadings and reaction yields. With estimated market values for the carbon composite product ranging from $\$$14 to over $\$$60/kg, and the ability to blend CNPs into concrete at sub-percent levels with less than 10% added cost, the system presents a compelling economic case. While additional engineering work is needed to optimize fluidization and heat transfer at scale, this project establishes a strong foundation for commercial development. The process is not only technically sound but also economically promising, representing a viable pathway for flare gas mitigation through modular carbon nanomaterial production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Twenty Years of Progress on Global Ocean Tides: The Impact of Satellite Altimetry

At the dawn of the era of high-precision altimetry, before the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon, ocean tides were properly viewed as a source of noise--tidal variations in ocean height would represent a very substantial fraction of what the altimeter measures, and would have to be accurately predicted and subtracted if altimetry were to achieve its potential for ocean and climate studies. But to the extent that the altimetry could be severely contaminated by tides, it also represented an unprecedented global-scale tidal data set. These new data, together with research stimulated by the need for accurate tidal corrections, led to a renaissance in tidal studies in the oceanographic community. In this paper we review contributions of altimetry to tidal science over the past 20 years, emphasizing recent progress. Mapping of tides has now been extended from the early focus on major constituents in the open ocean to include minor constituents, (e.g., long-period tides; non-linear tides in shelf waters, and in the open ocean), and into shallow and coastal waters. Global and spatially local estimates of tidal energy balance have been refined, and the role of internal tide conversion in dissipating barotropic tidal energy is now well established through modeling, altimetry, and in situ observations. However, energy budgets for internal tides, and the role of tidal dissipation in vertical ocean mixing remain controversial topics. Altimetry may contribute to resolving some of these important questions through improved mapping of low-mode internal tides. This area has advanced significantly in recent years, with several global maps now available, and progress on constraining temporally incoherent components. For the future, new applications of altimetry (e.g., in the coastal ocean, where barotropic tidal models remain inadequate), and new mission concepts (studies of the submesoscale with SWOT, which will require correction for internal tides) may bring us full circle, again pushing further development of tidal models as corrections.

Egbert, Gary↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resolving the Atomic Structure of Sequential Infiltration Synthesis Derived Inorganic Clusters

Sequential infiltration synthesis (SIS) is a route to the precision deposition of inorganic solids in analogy to atomic layer deposition but occurs within (vs upon) a soft material template. SIS has enabled exquisite nanoscale morphological complexity in various oxides through selective nucleation in block copolymers templates. However, the earliest stages of SIS growth remain unresolved, including the atomic structure of nuclei and the evolution of local coordination environments, before and after polymer template removal. We employed In K-edge extended X-ray absorption fine structure and atomic pair distribution function analysis of high-energy X-ray scattering to unravel (1) the structural evolution of InO x H y clusters inside a poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) host matrix and (2) the formation of porous In 2 O 3 solids (obtained after annealing) as a function of SIS cycle number. Early SIS cycles result in InO x H y cluster growth with high aspect ratio, followed by the formation of a three-dimensional network with additional SIS cycles. That the atomic structures of the InO x H y clusters can be modeled as multinuclear clusters with bonding patterns related to those in In 2 O 3 and In(OH) 3 crystal structures suggests that SIS may be an efficient route to 3D arrays of discrete-atom-number clusters. As a result, annealing the mixed inorganic/polymer films in air removes the PMMA template and consolidates the as-grown clusters into cubic In 2 O 3 nanocrystals with structural details that also depend on SIS cycle number.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1999

Global Geochemical Variation on the Lunar Surface: A Three-Element Approach

We present a method for displaying the relative abundances of three important elements (Th, Fe, and Ti) on the same map projection of the lunar surface. Using Th-, Fe-, and Ti-elemental abundances from orbital geochemical data and assigning each element a primary color, a false-color map of the lunar surface was created. This approach is similar to the ternary diagram approach presented by Davis and Spudis with some important differences, discussed later. For the present maps, Th abundances were measured by the Lunar Prospector (LP) Gamma-Ray Spectrometer(GRS).The new LPGRS low-altitude dataset was used in this analysis. Iron and Ti weight percentages were based on Clementine spectral reflectance data smoothed to the LP low altitude footprint. This method of presentation was designed to aid in the location and recognition of three principal lunar compositions: ferroan anorthosite (FAN), mare basalts (MB), and the Mg suite/ KREEP-rich rocks on the lunar surface, with special emphasis on the highlands and specific impact basins. In addition to the recognition of these endmember rock compositions, this method is an attempt to examine the relationship between elemental compositions that do not conform readily to previously accepted or observed endmember rocks in various specific regions of interest, including eastern highlands regions centered on 150 deg longitude, and a northern highlands Th-rich region observed. The LP low-altitude data has full width at half-maximum spatial resolution of about 40 km. The Clementine spectral reflectance datasets were adapted using an equal-area, gaussian smoothing routine to this footprint. In addition, these datasets, reported in weight percent of FeO and of Ti02, were adjusted to Fe and Ti weight percentages. Each dataset was then assigned one of the three primary colors: blue for Th, red for Fe, and green for Ti. For each element, the data range was normalized to represent the ratio of each point to the maximum in the dataset. (To view the color table, go to http://cass.jsc.nasa.gov/meetings/moon99/pdf/8033.pdf.) The full range of lunar longitudes is represented, but due to the lack of coverage of the Clementine data for latitudes > 70 deg and <-70 deg, the data for these regions is excluded. The differences between this approach and the ternary diagram approach of Davis and Spudis eliminate some of the uncertainty and ambiguity of the ternary diagram approach. Rather than using a ratio of Th to Ti normalized to CI chondritic ratios, and a ternary diagram with ternary apexes located at specific endmember compositional values, elemental compositions were used independently, eliminating the errors resulting from dividing numbers that can have high uncertainties, especially at low concentration. The three elements used in this method of presentation were chosen for several reasons. One reason for the inclusion of Th in this study is that it is an accurate indicator of KREEP. Iron and Ti concentrations are both low in highland regolith, causing any small fluctuations in Th to stand out very well. In addition, Fe and Ti are good compositional indicators of different mare basalts. Mixed with red for Fe, the green for Ti produces a yellow signal in high-Ti basalts. While universally high in Fe relative to the surrounding highlands, mare basalts have a diverse range of Ti values, making Ti concentration a valuable asset to the classification and identification of different basalt types. Finally, an important constraint in element selection is the availability of the global data, both from LP and Clementine results. Data for Th, Fe, and Ti are among the highest quality of existing lunar remote-sensing data. In addition, LP data for Fe and Ti will become available, enabling these data to be incorporated into the analysis. Using upper-limit values for end member rock compositions calculated from Korotev et al., attempts were made to locate the different endmember compositions of terranes on this diagram. Most strikingly, ferroan anorthosite (Th < and = 0.37 micro g/g; Fe (wt%)< and =2.29; Ti (wt%) < and = 0.22), which should appear as an almost black, reddish color, does not appear on the diagram at any noticeable frequency. Based on this analysis, the suggestion of extensive FAN regions on the lunar surface is not strong, especially at the presently accepted values for Fe and Th. However, to make sure this effect is not due to systematic errors, a thorough investigation of the precision, accuracy, and uncertainties of the Fe, Ti, and Th abundances needs to be carried out, especially at low concentrations. A particular region of interest is an area of high Th concentrations relative to Fe and Ti content north and east of Humboldtianum Crater. First observed by Lawrence et al., this region does not coincide with any visible impact structure and comprises one of the closest approximations to pure blue (high Th, very low Ti and Fe) on the lunar surface. Such an elemental composition does not lend itself readily to classification, and presents something of an anomaly. More detailed analysis of this region is needed to understand its structure and origin. There seems to be a longitudinal asymmetry in the Th concentrations of the highlands regolith. High-Th, low-Ti, and Fe regions are located between 135 deg and 180 deg longitude and between -30 deg and +30 deg latitude. While the Th levels are not high enough to attract attention in a single elemental display, the variation in the abundance of Th relative to Fe and Ti abundances can be clearly seen. The composition that these data suggest is not well represented in the sample return suite. In addition, these regions were largely missed by the Apollo orbital ground tracks, which only covered the outer edge of the areas of interest. The LP orbital Th data represent the first information about the Th concentrations in these regions of the highlands. Additional information contained in original.

Thomsen, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Our Sun V: A Bright Young Sun Consistent with Helioseismology and Warm Temperatures on Ancient Earth and Mars

The relatively warm temperatures required on early Earth and Mars have been difficult to account for with warming from greenhouse gases. A slightly more massive young Sun would be brighter than predicted by the standard solar model, simultaneously resolving this problem for both Earth and Mars. We computed high-precision solar models with seven initial masses, from Mi = 1.01 to 1.07 solar mass - the latter being the maximum permitted if the early Earth is not to lose its water via a moist greenhouse effect. The relatively modest early mass loss that is required remains consistent with observational limits on mass loss from young stars and with estimates of the past solar wind obtained from lunar rocks. We considered three types of mass loss rates: (1) a reasonable choice of a simple exponential decline, (2) an extreme step-function case that gives the maximum effect consistent with observations, and (3) the radical case of a linear decline which is inconsistent with the solar wind mass loss estimates from lunar rocks. Our computations demonstrated that mass loss leaves a fingerprint oil the Sun's internal structure large enough to be detectable with helioseismic observations. All of our mass-losing solar models were consistent with the helioseismic observations; in fact, our preferred mass-losing cases were in marginally better agreement with the helioseismology than the standard solar model was, although this difference was smaller than the effects of other uncertainties in the input physics and in the solar composition. Mass loss has only a relatively minor effect on the predicted lithium depletion; the major portion of the solar lithium depletion must still be due to rotational mixing. Thus the modest mass loss cases considered here cannot be ruled out by observed lithium depletions. For the three mass loss types considered, the preferred initial masses were 1.07 solar mass for the exponential case and 1.04 solar mass for the step-function and linear cases; all of these provided high enough solar fluxes at Mars 3.8 Gyr ago to be consistent with the existence of liquid water. For a more massive early Sun, the planets would have had to be closer to the young Sun in order to end up in their present orbits; the orbital radii of the planets would vary inversely with the solar mass. Both of these effects contribute to the fact that the early solar flux at the planets would have been considerably higher than that of the standard solar model at that time. In fact, the 1.07 solar mass exponential case has a flux at birth 5% higher than the present solar flux, while the radical 1.04 solar mass linear case has a nearly constant flux over the first 3 Gyr only about 10% lower than at present. The early solar evolution would be in the opposite direction in the H-R diagram to that of the standard Sun.

Sackmann, I.-Juliana↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark moments for the Standard Model?

If dark matter (DM) interacts with the Standard Model (SM) via the kinetic mixing (KM) portal, it necessitates the existence of portal matter (PM) particles which carry both dark and SM quantum numbers that will appear in vacuum polarization-like loop graphs. In addition to the familiar ~ eϵQ strength, QED-like interaction for the dark photon (DP), in some setups different loop graphs of these PM states can also induce other coupling structures for the SM fermions that may come to dominate in at least some regions of parameter space regions and which can take the form of ‘dark’ moments, e.g., magnetic dipole-type interactions in the IR, associated with a large mass scale, Λ. In this paper, motivated by a simple toy model, we perform a phenomenological investigation of a possible loop-induced dark magnetic dipole moment for SM fermions, in particular, for the electron. We show that at the phenomenological level such a scenario can not only be made compatible with existing experimental constraints for a significant range of correlated values for Λ and the dark U(1) D gauge coupling, g D , but can also lead to quantitatively different signatures once the DP is discovered. In this setup, assuming complex scalar DM to satisfy CMB constraints, parameter space regions where the DP decays invisibly are found to be somewhat preferred if PM mass limits from direct searches at the LHC and our toy model setup are all taken seriously. High precision searches for, or measurements of, the e + e - → γ + DP process at Belle II are shown to provide some of the strongest future constraints on this scenario.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phase-curve Pollution of Exoplanet Transit Depths

The next generation of space telescopes will enable transformative science to understand the nature and origin of exoplanets. In particular, transit spectroscopy will reveal the chemical composition of the exoplanet atmospheres with unprecedented detail thanks to precise measurements of the visible-to-infrared transit depths down to 10 parts per million. Such a level of instrumental precision raises the challenge to obtain even more precise astrophysical models so as not to significantly influence the interpretation of the observed data. We must therefore critically revisit some of the commonly accepted assumptions that were adequate for analyzing past and current observations. A common approximation in the analysis of exoplanetary primary transits is that the planet does not contribute to the recorded flux, so-called dark planet hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the dark planet hypothesis on the parameters obtained from the analysis of transits with particular attention to the transit depth. We develop mathematical formulae and release new software to estimate the magnitude of the potential bias. These tools will be useful in the preparation of observing proposals, as well as within the scientific consortia of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) missions. We probe the accuracy of the mathematical formulae through the analysis of synthetic observations with the JWST Mid-InfraRed Instrument. We find that self-blending from nightside emission attenuates the transit depth by >3σ for some of the known exoplanet systems, in agreement with previous work. An additional unreported effect caused by the nightside rotating into view can also impart a significant effect, but in the opposite direction (increasing the transit depth); this effect can largely be removed with conventional detrending practices, at the expense of a slight increase in noise, and mixing astrophysical variations and instrumental drifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Analysis of the Radar Reflectivity of Aircraft Vortex Wakes

Radar has been proposed as a way to track wake vortices to reduce aircraft spacing and tests have revealed radar echoes from aircraft wakes in clear air. The results are always interpreted qualitatively using Tatarski's theory of weak scattering by isotropic atmospheric turbulence. The goal of the present work was to predict the value of the radar cross-section (RCS) using simpler models. This is accomplished in two steps. First, the refractive index is obtained. Since the structure of the aircraft wakes is different from atmospheric turbulence, three simple mechanisms specific to vortex wakes are considered: (1) Radial density gradient in a two-dimensional vortex, (2) three-dimensional fluctuations in the vortex cores, and (3) Adiabatic transport of the atmospheric fluid in a two-dimensional oval surrounding the pair of vortices. The index of refraction is obtained more precisely for the two-dimensional mechanisms than for the three-dimensional ones. In the second step, knowing the index of refraction, a scattering analysis is performed. Tatarski's weak scattering approximation is kept but the usual assumptions of a far-field and a uniform incident wave are dropped. Neither assumption is generally valid for a wake that is coherent across the radar beam. For analytical insight, a simpler approximation that invokes, in addition to weak scattering, the far-field and wide cylindrical beam assumptions, is also developed and compared with the more general analysis. The predicted RCS values for the oval surround the vortices (mechanism C) agree with the experiments of Bilson conducted over a wide range of frequencies. However, the predictions have a cut-off away from normal incidence which is not present in the measurements. Estimates suggest that this is due to turbulence in the baroclinic vorticity generated at the boundary of the oval. The reflectivity of a vortex itself (mechanism A) is comparable to that of the oval (mechanism C) but cuts-off at frequencies lower than those considered in all the experiments to date. The RCS of a vortex happens to peak at the frequency (about 49 MHz) where atmospheric radars (known as ST radars) operate and so the present prediction could be verified in the future. Finally , we suggest that hot engine exhaust could increase RCE by 40 db and reveal vortex circulation, provided its mixing with the surroundings is prevented in the laminarising flow of the vortices.

Shariff, Karim↗
NASA NTRS2003

Archetypal TRMM Radar Profiles Identified Through Cluster Analysis

It is widely held that identifiable 'convective regimes' exist in nature, although precise definitions of these are elusive. Examples include land / Ocean distinctions, break / monsoon beahvior, seasonal differences in the Amazon (SON vs DJF), etc. These regimes are often described by differences in the realized local convective spectra, and measured by various metrics of convective intensity, depth, areal coverage and rainfall amount. Objective regime identification may be valuable in several ways: regimes may serve as natural 'branch points' in satellite retrieval algorithms or data assimilation efforts; one example might be objective identification of regions that 'should' share a similar 2-R relationship. Similarly, objectively defined regimes may provide guidance on optimal siting of ground validation efforts. Objectively defined regimes could also serve as natural (rather than arbitrary geographic) domain 'controls' in studies of convective response to environmental forcing. Quantification of convective vertical structure has traditionally involved parametric study of prescribed quantities thought to be important to convective dynamics: maximum radar reflectivity, cloud top height, 30-35 dBZ echo top height, rain rate, etc. Individually, these parameters are somewhat deficient as their interpretation is often nonunique (the same metric value may signify different physics in different storm realizations). Individual metrics also fail to capture the coherence and interrelationships between vertical levels available in full 3-D radar datasets. An alternative approach is discovery of natural partitions of vertical structure in a globally representative dataset, or 'archetypal' reflectivity profiles. In this study, this is accomplished through cluster analysis of a very large sample (0[107) of TRMM-PR reflectivity columns. Once achieved, the rainconditional and unconditional 'mix' of archetypal profile types in a given location and/or season provides a description of the local convective spectrum which retains vertical structure information. A further cluster analysis of these 'mixes' can identify recurrent convective spectra. These are a first step towards objective identification of convective regimes, and towards answering the question: 'What are the most convectively similar locations in the world?'

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neutrino Flavor Model Building and the Origins of Flavor and CP Violation

The neutrino sector offers one of the most sensitive probes of new physics beyond the Standard Model of Particle Physics (SM). The mechanism of neutrino mass generation is still unknown. The observed suppression of neutrino masses hints at a large scale, conceivably of the order of the scale of a rand unified theory (GUT), which is a unique feature of neutrinos that is not shared by the charged fermions. The origin of neutrino masses and mixing is part of the outstanding puzzle of fermion masses and mixings, which is not explained ab initio in the SM. Flavor model building for both quark and lepton sectors is important in order to gain a better understanding of the origin of the structure of mass hierarchy and flavor mixing, which constitute the dominant fraction of the SM parameters. Recent activities in neutrino flavor model building based on non-Abelian discrete flavor symmetries and modular flavor symmetries have been shown to be a promising direction to explore. The emerging models provide a framework that has a significantly reduced number of undetermined parameters in the flavor sector. In addition, such a framework affords a novel origin of CP violation from group theory due to the intimate connection between physical CP transformation and group theoretical properties of non-Abelian discrete groups. Model building based on non-Abelian discrete flavor symmetries and their modular variants enables the particle physics community to interpret the current and anticipated upcoming data from neutrino experiments. Non-Abelian discrete flavor symmetries and their modular variants can result from compactification of a higher-dimensional theory. Pursuit of flavor model building based on such frameworks thus also provides the connection to possible UV completions: in particular, to string theory. We emphasize the importance of constructing models in which the uncertainties of theoretical predictions are smaller than, or at most compatible with, the error bars of measurements in neutrino experiments. While there exist proof-of-principle versions of bottom-up models in which the theoretical uncertainties are under control, it is remarkable that the key ingredients of such constructions were discovered first in top-down model building. We outline how a successful unification of bottom-up and top-down ideas and techniques may guide us towards a new era of precision flavor model building in which future experimental results can give us crucial insights into the UV completion of the SM.

Almumin, Yahya (ORCID:0000000196396772)↗
DOE OSTI2023

How to identify different new neutrino oscillation physics scenarios at DUNE

Next generation neutrino oscillation experiments are expected to measure the remaining oscillation parameters with very good precision. They will have unprecedented capabilities to search for new physics that modify oscillations. DUNE, with its broad band beam, good particle identification, and relatively high energies will provide an excellent environment to search for new physics. If deviations from the standard three-flavor oscillation picture are seen however, it is crucial to know which new physics scenario is found so that it can be verified elsewhere and theoretically understood. We investigate several benchmark new physics scenarios by looking at existing long-baseline accelerator neutrino data from NOvA and T2K and determine at what sensitivity DUNE can differentiate among them. We consider sterile neutrinos and both vector and scalar non-standard neutrino interactions, all with new complex phases, the latter of which could conceivably provide absolute neutrino mass scale information. We find that, in many interesting cases, DUNE will have good model discrimination. We also perform a new fit to NOvA and T2K data with scalar NSI.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dual-frequency (Ka-band and G-band) radar estimates of liquid water content profiles in shallow clouds

The profile of the liquid water content (LWC) in clouds provides fundamental information for understanding the internal structure of clouds, their radiative effects, propensity to precipitate, and degree of entrainment and mixing with the surrounding environment. In principle, differential absorption techniques based on coincident dual-frequency radar reflectivity observations have the potential to provide the LWC profile. Previous differential frequency radar reflectivity (DFR) efforts were challenged by the fact that the measurable differential attenuation for small quantities of LWC is usually comparable to the system measurement error. This typically renders the retrieval impractical, as the uncertainty can become many times greater than the retrieved value itself. Theoretically, this drawback can be mitigated following two interconnected approaches: (1) increasing the frequency separation between the dual-frequency radar system to measure greater differential attenuation and (2) increasing the radar operating frequency to reduce the instrument measurement random error. Our recently developed 239 GHz radar was deployed during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) along with a variety of collocated remote sensing and in situ instruments. We have combined Ka-band (35 GHz) and G-band (239 GHz) observations to retrieve the LWC from more than 100 vertical profiles of shallow clouds with typical amounts of LWC smaller than 1 g m -3 . We theoretically and experimentally demonstrate that the Ka-band and G-band pair of frequencies offers at least a 65 % relative improvement in the LWC retrieval sensitivity compared to previous works reported in the literature using lower-frequency radars. This new technique provides a missing capability to determine the LWC in the challenging low liquid water path (LWP) range (< 200 g m -2 ) and suggests a way forward to characterize microphysical and dynamical processes more precisely in shallow clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Total Measurement Uncertainty in Neutron Coincidence Multiplicity Analysis

Neutron multiplicity counting is the most commonly used nondestructive assay technique for determining the plutonium mass within containers of scrap PuO 2 or mixed oxide (MOX). In multiplicity analysis, the 240 Pu eff mass, leakage multiplication, and alpha ratio (the ratio of [α, n]-to-spontaneous fission neutron production) are the three primary unknown sample properties. They must be determined simultaneously. To solve for these three unknowns in a multiplicity assay, three measured values are needed: the singles, doubles, and triples neutron count rates. While the analysis is limited to solving for three unknowns, there are many additional factors that impact the observed count rates and contribute to the measurement uncertainty. In this study we investigate the various uncertainty contributors for the multiplicity analysis through a combination of traditional uncertainty propagation techniques supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to address the dependences not explicitly expressed by the point source model. Uncertainties arising from counting statistics, calibration parameters, calibration method, nuclear data, and various material characteristics (isotopic abundances, chemical form, density, and impurities) are considered. A Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) estimate is then developed from these uncertainty contributors. This study is confined to multiplicity analysis of items commonly encountered in international safeguards applications. That is, the study focused on Pu oxides and MOX materials for the masses ranging up to 4000 grams total Pu. Multiplicity measurements were simulated using MCNP V6 based on the Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC), Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (ENMC), Pyrochemical Multiplicity Counter, and Large Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (LEMC) for this study; however, this report focuses on the parameterization of the uncertainties for the PSMC. The performance differences between the PSMC and the other multiplicity counting systems are relatively small, primarily manifesting in the impact on measurement precision so that the evaluation developed for the PSMC can be applied to the other multiplicity counting systems. Finally an analysis tool, the Multiplicity TMU Estimator, was developed from this study to serve as an aid for evaluation of the total measurement uncertainty of multiplicity assay results obtained from the commonly used INCC acquisition and analysis software.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mixture Model Framework for Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis Using Heterogeneous Clinical and Outcome Data

Prognoses of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) outcomes are neither easily nor accurately determined from clinical indicators. This is due in part to the heterogeneity of damage inflicted to the brain, ultimately resulting in diverse and complex outcomes. Using a data-driven approach on many distinct data elements may be necessary to describe this large set of outcomes and thereby robustly depict the nuanced differences among TBI patients’ recovery. In this work, we develop a method for modeling large heterogeneous data types relevant to TBI. Our approach is geared toward the probabilistic representation of mixed continuous and discrete variables with missing values. The model is trained on a dataset encompassing a variety of data types, including demographics, blood-based biomarkers, and imaging findings. In addition, it includes a set of clinical outcome assessments at 3, 6, and 12 months post-injury. The model is used to stratify patients into distinct groups in an unsupervised learning setting. We use the model to infer outcomes using input data, and show that the collection of input data reduces uncertainty of outcomes over a baseline approach. In addition, we quantify the performance of a likelihood scoring technique that can be used to self-evaluate the extrapolation risk of prognosis on unseen patients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗