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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic fracture finite elements

The Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) is a promising method for estimating the fatigue life and inspection cycles for mechanical and structural components. The Probability Finite Element Method (PFEM), which is based on second moment analysis, has proved to be a promising, practical approach to handle problems with uncertainties. As the PFEM provides a powerful computational tool to determine first and second moment of random parameters, the second moment reliability method can be easily combined with PFEM to obtain measures of the reliability of the structural system. The method is also being applied to fatigue crack growth. Uncertainties in the material properties of advanced materials such as polycrystalline alloys, ceramics, and composites are commonly observed from experimental tests. This is mainly attributed to intrinsic microcracks, which are randomly distributed as a result of the applied load and the residual stress.

Liu, W. K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of CFD simulations of the moored DeepCwind offshore wind semisubmersible in irregular waves

This article examines the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to predict the response of a floating wind platform to irregular-wave excitation. This work was conducted as part of the Reproducible CFD Joint Industry Project for Floating Offshore Wind Applications and involved verification across several participants and modeling tools and validation against experiments. The authors pay special attention to the uncertainties in both CFD results and experimental measurements. In this work, we perform detailed comparisons of the incident waves and the motion of a moored structure. The nonlinear, low-frequency resonance motion is of particular interest because it potentially drives the mooring and tower-base loads. The verification and validation study is partially successful in that the CFD simulations capture the low-frequency slow-drift motion well but underpredict the low-frequency pitch resonance. This underprediction can be attributed in part to the CFD incident waves, which showed some discrepancies with the experimental waves, especially around extreme events. The effects of the wave discrepancies are also estimated and investigated using a mid-fidelity OpenFAST model. Overall, the present study increases our confidence in using CFD simulations to predict the global performance of offshore wind platforms in irregular waves and to produce data for the calibration of lower-fidelity models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Form Error Correction for a Black-Box Thermal Battery Heat Transfer Simulation

Thermal batteries are crucial for supplying power to high-consequence engineering applications such as rockets. Computational simulations have been developed to predict thermal battery behavior, but these simulations often suffer from modeling errors, including model form uncertainty. Addressing this uncertainty can be achieved by quantifying either the model discrepancy in the output or the model form error (MFE) in the governing equation. MFE is particularly valuable as it can be better extrapolated beyond observed outputs, which is essential for predictions involving changes in external system loading, system configuration and geometry, or output quantities. This paper employs a state estimation approach to estimate MFE using experimental data and then utilizes machine learning (ML) to model its relationship with state variables. A nonintrusive technique is used to estimate MFE in a black-box thermal battery heat transfer simulation. The trained machine learning model for MFE is then applied to correct simulation predictions under extrapolated initial conditions and battery configurations. In conclusion, the methodology's performance is evaluated using additional experimental data, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving prediction accuracy.

Batteries↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust deep learning framework for constitutive relations modeling

Modeling the full-range deformation behaviors of materials under complex loading and materials conditions is a significant challenge for constitutive relations (CRs) modeling. Here, we propose a general encoder-decoder deep learning framework that can model high-dimensional stress-strain data and complex loading histories with robustness and universal capability. The framework employs an encoder to project high-dimensional input information (e.g., loading history, loading conditions, and materials information) to a lower-dimensional hidden space and a decoder to map the hidden representation to the stress of interest. We evaluated various encoder architectures, including gated recurrent unit (GRU), GRU with attention, temporal convolutional network (TCN), and the Transformer encoder, on two complex stress-strain datasets that were designed to include a wide range of complex loading histories and loading conditions. All architectures achieved excellent test results with an root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 1 MPa. Additionally, we analyzed the capability of the different architectures to make predictions on out-of-domain applications, with an uncertainty estimation based on deep ensembles. The proposed approach provides a robust alternative to empirical/semi-empirical models for CRs modeling, offering the potential for more accurate and efficient materials design and optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of methods to estimate aerosol effective radiative forcings in climate models

Abstract. Uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate primarily arises from the unknown contribution of aerosols, which impact radiative fluxes directly and through modifying cloud properties. Climate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures but perturbed atmospheric aerosol loadings allow for an estimate of how strongly the planet's radiative energy budget has been perturbed by the increase in aerosols since pre-industrial times. The approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique further decomposes the contributions to the direct forcing due to aerosol scattering and absorption and to the indirect forcing due to aerosol-induced changes in cloud scattering, amount, and absorption, as well as the effects of aerosols on surface albedo. Here we evaluate previously published APRP-derived estimates of aerosol effective radiative forcings from these simulations conducted in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and find that they are biased as a result of two large coding errors that – in most cases – fortuitously compensate. The most notable exception is the direct radiative forcing from absorbing aerosols, which is more than 40 % larger averaged across CMIP6 models in the present study. Correcting these biases eliminates the residuals and leads to better agreement with benchmark estimates derived from double calls to the radiation code. The APRP method – when properly implemented – remains a highly accurate and efficient technique for diagnosing aerosol ERF in cases where double radiation calls are not available, and in all cases it provides quantification of the individual contributors to the ERF that are highly useful but not otherwise available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Computational Approach for Model Update of an LS-DYNA Energy Absorbing Cell

NASA and its contractors are working on structural concepts for absorbing impact energy of aerospace vehicles. Recently, concepts in the form of multi-cell honeycomb-like structures designed to crush under load have been investigated for both space and aeronautics applications. Efforts to understand these concepts are progressing from tests of individual cells to tests of systems with hundreds of cells. Because of fabrication irregularities, geometry irregularities, and material properties uncertainties, the problem of reconciling analytical models, in particular LS-DYNA models, with experimental data is a challenge. A first look at the correlation results between single cell load/deflection data with LS-DYNA predictions showed problems which prompted additional work in this area. This paper describes a computational approach that uses analysis of variance, deterministic sampling techniques, response surface modeling, and genetic optimization to reconcile test with analysis results. Analysis of variance provides a screening technique for selection of critical parameters used when reconciling test with analysis. In this study, complete ignorance of the parameter distribution is assumed and, therefore, the value of any parameter within the range that is computed using the optimization procedure is considered to be equally likely. Mean values from tests are matched against LS-DYNA solutions by minimizing the square error using a genetic optimization. The paper presents the computational methodology along with results obtained using this approach.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of delta ray electrons on measurement uncertainties of harp system

A harp system, which is a multi-wire beam profile monitoring (MWPM) system, is planned upstream of the spallation target to make in situ calibration of beam current density configuration on the target along with beam imaging from luminescent coating on the beam entrance window at the Second Target Station (STS) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This beam interception-based beam diagnostics system on the target will be used to ensure that the maximum beam loads on the target are within the design range during neutron production. Current design of the harp consists of three layers of measurement wires each of which is sandwiched between voltage biasing wire planes. The signal obtained from each measurement wire layer is disturbed by secondary electrons (SE) and delta rays produced by beam-matter interactions in neighboring wires and ionization of residual gases in accelerator vacuum. While the backgrounds from SE can be suppressed by voltage biasing, the delta-ray electrons with kinetic energies above keV ranges overcome the electric potential bias. In this paper, we study the effects of delta-rays on the measurement uncertainties of MWPM using the particle transport simulation code FLUKA. Furthermore, the cases where the harp system is installed in the proximity of a large delta ray sources such as proton beam window or in the core vessel filled with sub-atmospheric gas have been studied.

Lee, Yong Joong↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Blending into Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure: Review of the State of Technology

Hydrogen is an energy carrier that could play an important role in reducing emissions associated with difficult-to-decarbonize sectors including peaking and load-following electricity and industrial heating. Blending hydrogen into the natural gas pipelines has been proposed as an approach for achieving near-term emissions reductions and early-market access for hydrogen technologies such as electrolyzers. Numerous challenges and uncertainties complicate this approach to natural gas decarbonization, however, and this review summarizes current research on the material, economic, and operational factors that must be considered for hydrogen blending. First, this review explores previous research regarding the effects of blending hydrogen on gas mixture fluid and thermodynamic properties, pipeline materials and equipment performance within transmission and distribution networks, and supporting facilities such as underground storage and end-use hydrogen separation. We also investigate and summarize studies that developed mathematical models of natural gas pipeline networks with hydrogen blending, and the operational and techno-economic findings of these network studies. Finally, we discuss notable hydrogen blending demonstrations and their key outcomes. Many blending demonstrations internationally have proven that low hydrogen percentage blending is feasible under very specific scenarios with limited end-usage applications on both high-pressure transmission lines and low-pressure distribution lines. This report summarizes findings from literature into key areas of consensus and disagreement. Research gaps and disagreements between the literature are highlighted to provide directions for future hydrogen blending research.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment (Final Report)

This report documents the FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target (TSPT) of developing an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment (FREDA). Over Q1-Q4, new capabilities were developed across both plasma and engineering domains and demonstrated on an example representation of a Compact Advanced Tokamak with a Dual Cooled Lead Lithium blanket. This represents a first-of-a-kind demonstration of coupled core-to-wall-to-engineering for a reactor. Self-consistent CESOL workflows were applied to provide core, pedestal, and SOL prediction; new modules were developed for energetic particle stability (FAR3D) and transport (TGLF-EP) analysis; and boundary plasma modeling (SOLPS-ITER, BOUT++/Hermes-3) was expanded to evaluate wall and divertor heat fluxes and interface with engineering thermal analysis. A parameterized CAD tool, TRACER, was expanded to generate medium-fidelity divertor, blanket, and coil geometries; OpenFOAM and Diablo workflows were applied for first-wall and divertor thermal analyses with helium cooling; and reduced-order models were created for high-mass-flux divertor cooling. Magnet multiphysics capabilities were verified between Elmer, Diablo, and a new MFEM-based solver, and workflows enable stress, thermal, and neutron-fluence analysis of TF coils with neutronics-driven heating. Nuclear and blanket analysis workflows were demonstrated, including tritium breeding, transport, and CFD-informed thermo-mechanical assessment. Preliminary multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification workflows were applied to boundary modeling codes and shown to achieve variance reductions with fewer high-fidelity boundary simulations. Key findings highlight the challenges of resolving the ITEP gap to find suitable balance between wall and divertor loads, neutron heating, and practical limits of PFC cooling. Next step priorities are to develop automated workflows to check boundary code convergence and detachment, implement tighter physics-engineering CAD provenance tracking, and inclusion of plasma-material interface models for SLAG and tungsten cracking behavior. Collectively, these developments establish sophisticated capabilities for predictive, multi-fidelity, whole-device modeling that integrates plasma physics, materials, magnets, and nuclear engineering to guide pathways to viable Fusion Pilot Plant design points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quasi-isentropic compression of an additively manufactured aluminum alloy to 14.8 GPa

We uniaxially and shocklessly compressed an additively manufactured aluminum alloy, laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) AlSi10Mg, to peak stresses ranging from 4.4 to 14.8 GPa at peak strain rates on the order of [Formula: see text] via a series of magnetic loading experiments to measure the principal isentrope, yield strength, and shear modulus as a function of material orientation and applied stress. We did not observe significant anisotropy in any of the measured quantities. We found that the principal isentrope, within the uncertainty and up to our peak stress, overlaps the material’s Hugoniot. We measured yield strengths and shear moduli ranging from 0.28 to 0.81 GPa and 36 to 52 GPa, respectively. Our results indicate that LPBF AlSi10Mg behaves similarly to wrought Al alloys under quasi-isentropic compression.

Brown, Nathan P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Enhanced LAW Glass Formulation Algorithm

This report summarizes the Preliminary Enhanced Low-Activity Waste Glass Formulation Algorithm (GFA), its background information, and the calculations it performs. The Preliminary Enhanced Low-Activity Waste GFA is a tool developed in MATLAB to formulate glass for a given waste composition while attempting to maximize waste loading. It is intended for use at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, where nuclear waste will be vitrified into glass. The formulated glass is required to satisfy several processing and product quality constraints. In addition, calculations must account for associated uncertainties in constraint prediction and measurement. The GFA adheres to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory nuclear quality assurance procedures and has been validated and verified. In this second revision to the report, two constraints: the lithium and zirconia target constraints were amended to Table 3.1 and programmed into the algorithm. Additionally, three sections were added. Section 3.2.1 includes the Enhanced LAW Correlation Rules, an addition to the glass optimality criteria. Section 4.0 discusses a stepped process approach taken to ensure the algorithm can adequately react to differences between its recommended output and the actual measurements and transfers made during plant operation, and calculation of specific radionuclide concentrations. Section 5.2 describes changes to the user interaction with the algorithm program including the addition of a graphical user interface and compilation of the software.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2014

Repeatability Modeling for Wind-Tunnel Measurements: Results for Three Langley Facilities

Data from extensive check standard tests of seven measurement processes in three NASA Langley Research Center wind tunnels are statistically analyzed to test a simple model previously presented in 2000 for characterizing short-term, within-test and across-test repeatability. The analysis is intended to support process improvement and development of uncertainty models for the measurements. The analysis suggests that the repeatability can be estimated adequately as a function of only the test section dynamic pressure over a two-orders- of-magnitude dynamic pressure range. As expected for low instrument loading, short-term coefficient repeatability is determined by the resolution of the instrument alone (air off). However, as previously pointed out, for the highest dynamic pressure range the coefficient repeatability appears to be independent of dynamic pressure, thus presenting a lower floor for the standard deviation for all three time frames. The simple repeatability model is shown to be adequate for all of the cases presented and for all three time frames.

Hemsch, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The effect of model uncertainty on some optimal routing problems

The effect of model uncertainties on optimal routing in a system of parallel queues is examined. The uncertainty arises in modeling the service time distribution for the customers (jobs, packets) to be served. For a Poisson arrival process and Bernoulli routing, the optimal mean system delay generally depends on the variance of this distribution. However, as the input traffic load approaches the system capacity the optimal routing assignment and corresponding mean system delay are shown to converge to a variance-invariant point. The implications of these results are examined in the context of gradient-based routing algorithms. An example of a model-independent algorithm using online gradient estimation is also included.

Mohanty, Bibhu↗
NASA NTRS2007

Orbiter Gap Filler Bending Model for Re-entry

Pressure loads on a protruding gap filler during an Orbiter reentry are investigated to evaluate the likelihood of extraction due to pressure loads, and to ascertain how much bending will be induced by re-entry pressure loads. Oblique shock wave theory is utilized to develop a representation of the pressure loads induced on a gap filler for the ISSHVFW trajectory, representative of a heavy weight ISS return. A free body diagram is utilized to react the forces induced by the pressure forces. Preliminary results developed using these methods demonstrate that pressure loads, alone, are not likely causes of gap filler extraction during reentry. Assessment of the amount a gap filler will bend over is presented. Implications of gap filler bending during re-entry include possible mitigation of early boundary layer transition concerns, uncertainty in ground based measurement of protruding gap fillers from historical Orbiter flight history, and uncertainty in the use of Orbiter gap fillers for boundary layer prediction calibration. Authors will be added to the author list as appropriate.

Campbell, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Robust Load-Sharing Control of Spacecraft Formations

This paper focuses on the design of autonomous and collaborative control strategies to govern the relative distances among multiple spacecraft in formation with no ground intervention. A coordinate load-sharing control structure for formation flying and a methodology to control their dynamic models with slow time-varying and uncertain parameters are the main objectives of this work. The method is applied to a deep space formation example, where the uncertainty in spacecraft fuel masses is also considered.

multi spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS2005

Chemical Loss of Polar Ozone: Present Understanding and Remaining Uncertainties

Not long after the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, it was established that halogen compounds, supplied to the atmosphere mainly by anthropogenic activities, are the primary driver of polar ozone loss. We will briefly review the chemical mechanisms that cause polar ozone loss and the early evidence showing the key role played by anthropogenic halogens. Recently, stratospheric halogen loading has leveled off, due to adherence to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments that has essentially banned CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and other halocarbons. We will describe recent reports of the first stage of recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole (e.g., a statistically significant slowing of the downward trend), associated with the leveling off of stratospheric halogens. Despite this degree of understanding, we will discuss the tendency of photochemical models to underestimate the observed rate of polar ozone loss and a hypothesis that has recently been put forth that might resolve this discrepancy. Finally, we will briefly discuss chemical loss of Arctic ozone, which

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Extravehicular Suit Impact Load Attenuation Study for Use in Astronaut Bone Fracture Prediction

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fracture of the proximal femur is a traumatic injury that would likely result in loss of mission if it were to happen during spaceflight. The low gravity exposure causes decreases in bone mineral density which heightens the concern. Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center have quantified bone fracture probability during spaceflight with a probabilistic model. It was assumed that a pressurized extravehicular activity (EVA) suit would attenuate load during a fall, but no supporting data was available. The suit impact load attenuation study was performed to collect analogous data. METHODS: A pressurized EVA suit analog test bed was used to study how the offset, defined as the gap between the suit and the astronaut s body, impact load magnitude and suit operating pressure affects the attenuation of impact load. The attenuation data was incorporated into the probabilistic model of bone fracture as a function of these factors, replacing a load attenuation value based on commercial hip protectors. RESULTS: Load attenuation was more dependent on offset than on pressurization or load magnitude, especially at small offsets. Load attenuation factors for offsets between 0.1 - 1.5 cm were 0.69 +/- 0.15, 0.49 +/- 0.22 and 0.35 +/- 0.18 for mean impact forces of 4827, 6400 and 8467 N, respectively. Load attenuation factors for offsets of 2.8 - 5.3 cm were 0.93 +/- 0.2, 0.94 +/- 0.1 and 0.84 +/- 0.5, for the same mean impact forces. Reductions were observed in the 95th percentile confidence interval of the bone fracture probability predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in uncertainty and improved confidence in bone fracture predictions increased the fidelity and credibility of the fracture risk model and its benefit to mission design and operational decisions.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational Fluid Dynamics Study of a Cross-Flow Marine Hydrokinetic Turbine and the Combined Influence of Struts and Helical Blades: Preprint

A computational fluid dynamics study was performed for a cross-flow marine hydro-kinetic turbine. The analysis was done in three dimensions and used the unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes solver in the commercial code STAR-CCM+. The base turbine configuration is the RivGen® Turbine, designed by the Ocean Renewable Power Company (ORPC). A convergence and uncertainty analysis was performed for both the spatial and temporal discretization; this was done using the base configuration which features support struts and helical foils. The proposed study aims to compare the impact of the struts on both power performance and blade loading for helical and straight blades.

CFD↗