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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Flash Drought as Captured by Reanalysis Data: Disentangling the Contributions of Precipitation Deficit and Excess Evapotranspiration

Flash droughts – uncharacteristically rapid dryings of the land system – are naturally associated with extreme precipitation deficits. Such precipitation deficits, however, do not tell the whole story, for land surface drying can be exacerbated by anomalously high evapotranspiration (ET) rates driven by anomalously high temperatures (e.g., during heatwaves), anomalously high incoming radiation (e.g., from reduced cloudiness), and other meteorological anomalies. In this study, the relative contributions of precipitation and ET anomalies to flash drought generation in the Northern Hemisphere are quantified through the analysis of diagnostic fields contained within the MERRA-2 reanalysis product. Unique to the approach is the explicit treatment of soil moisture impacts on ET through relationships diagnosed from the reanalysis data; under this treatment, an ET anomaly that is negative relative to the local long-term climatological mean is still considered positive in terms of its contribution to a flash drought if it is high for the concurrent value of soil moisture. Maps produced in the analysis show the fraction of flash drought production stemming specifically from ET anomalies and illustrate how ET anomalies for some droughts are related to temperature and radiation anomalies. While ET is found to have an important impact on flash drought production in the central US and in parts of Russia known from past studies to be prone to heatwave-related drought, and while this impact does appear stronger during the onset (first several days) of flash droughts, overall the contribution of ET to these droughts is small relative to the contribution of precipitation deficit.

R D Koster↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cryogenic Insulation Solutions for the Surface of Mars with Its Unique Environments

The surface of Mars provides unique challenges for cryogenic insulation systems and for cryogenic spacecraft traveling there. In order to store cryogenic fluids for propulsion, life support, and other applications on the surface of Mars one must protect the insulation from the array of unique environmental factors that are present. Travel to Mars is a very energy intensive endeavor and landing on the surface requires launching over 200 kg of propellant and spacecraft per kilogram landed. As such, high performance, lightweight insulations are needed for cryogenic systems to be used on the surface. Traditional spacecraft use multilayer insulation that works well in a vacuum, but Mars has an atmospheric of pressure approximately 7 torr, consisting of approximately 95 % carbon dioxide. Based on analysis and trade studies NASA has shown that the mass savings from the higher performance of multilayer insulation with a vacuum jacket saved several hundred kilograms of mass for a typical human Mars ascent stage. Thus NASA, along with several contractors, have been developing a lightweight vacuum jacketed system for the 7 torr environment. This lightweight vacuum jacketed system must survive launch from earth, travel to Mars, and on the surface for several years. On the surface, it must be able to survive landing, natural environmental occurrences such as dust storms, and temperature cycling with minimal if any human maintenance. The insulation systems under development have been exposed to an array of tests to demonstrate their capability to survive these environments while still providing the high performance required to meet mission needs.

Cryogenic Fluid Management↗
NASA NTRS2022

Asymmetric Warming/Cooling Response to CO2 Increase/Decrease Mainly Due to Non-Logarithmic Forcing, not Feedbacks

We explore the CO2 dependence of effective climate sensitivity (SG) with symmetric abrupt and transient CO2 forcing, spanning the range 1/8×, 1/4×, 1/2×, 2×, 4×, and 8×CO2, using two state-of-the-art fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-land models. In both models, under abrupt CO2 forcing, we find an asymmetric response in surface temperature and SG. The surface global warming at 8×CO2 is more than one third larger than the corresponding cooling at 1/8×CO2, and SG is CO2 dependent, increasing non-monotonically from 1/8×CO2 to 8×CO2. We find similar CO2 dependence in the transient runs, forced with -1%yr−1CO2 and +1%yr−1CO2 up to 1/8×CO2 and 8×CO2, respectively. The non-logarithmic radiative forcing – not the changing feedbacks – primarily explains the dependence of SG on CO2, particularly at low CO2 levels. The changing feedbacks, however, explain SG’s non-monotonic behavior.

climate sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS2022

Planetary protection assessment of radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG)-powered landed missions to ocean worlds: application to Enceladus

Landed missions to icy worlds with a subsurface liquid water ocean must meet planetary protection requirements, and ensure a sufficiently small likelihood of any microorganism-bearing part of the landed element reaching the ocean. A higher bound on this likelihood is set by the potential for radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) power sources, the hottest possible landed element, to melt through the ice shell and reach the ocean. Here, we quantify this potential as a function of three key parameters: surface temperature, ice shell thickness (i.e., heat flux through the shell), and thickness of a porous (insulating) snow or regolith cover. Although the model we describe can be applied to any ocean world, we present results in the context of a landed mission concept to the south polar terrain of Saturn’s moon Enceladus. In this particular context, we discuss planetary protection considerations for landing site selection. The likelihood of forward microbial contamination of Enceladus’ ocean by an RTG-powered landed mission can be made sufficiently low to not undermine compliance with planetary protection policy.

Marc Neveu↗
NASA NTRS2023

Lake Anna Water Resources: Using NASA Earth Observations to Identify Algal Event Risk Factors in Lake Anna and Help Inform Future Management Practices

Lake Anna is a man-made reservoir and popular recreation destination that spans over 13,000 acres-9,600 public and 3,400 private-in the Piedmont region of Virginia. The Lake has recently seen a rise in documented harmful algal blooms (HABs), which pose a variety of community and ecological concerns and are often exacerbated by anthropogenic factors, such as excess nutrient loads from agricultural runoff. NASA DEVELOP has partnered with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) to help monitor cyanobacteria and nutrient pollution indicators across Lake Anna. The team utilized Earth observations (EO) and in situ ancillary data to identify and monitor algal bloom trends. The team used Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI) to analyze water quality variables such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, surface temperature, and cyanobacteria. Due to the lack of comprehensive in situ data and historic HAB event records, our ability to compare and validate EOs was limited. Additionally, deficient spatial resolutions, along with a geographically complicated shoreline, accentuated the spatial constraints we faced in our analysis. After examining EOs, our results indicated conditions conducive to the formation of HABs within the upper reaches of Lake Anna. Yet, spatially dependent limiting factors may have also influenced where these phenomena developed. When used in concert with existing in situ datasets, NASA EOs provide relevant stakeholders with more comprehensive analyses with which to engage in enhanced monitoring and watershed management.

cyanobacteria↗
NASA NTRS1989

Modeling surface temperature distributions in forest landscapes

A model of the frequency distributions of the spatial variability in surface temperature is presented. Surface temperature data are obtained from two daytime and two nighttime flights of the Thermal IR Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) over forest land in western Oregon in August, 1985. The temperature values are corrected for atmospheric attenuation and thermal radiation emission with the LOWTRAN-6 algorithm. The temperature distributions were modeled with a two-parameter beta probability density distribution and the fit of the model was evaluated by comparison with the TIMS data set. Use of the model's parameters to identify and classify surface types shows good discrimination among various surfaces for the daytime images, with less distinct discrimination for the nighttime images.

Holbo, H. R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Temperature Changes in the United States

Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Changes are depicted using a spectrum of observations, including surface weather stations, moored ocean buoys, polar-orbiting satellites, and temperature-sensitive proxies. Projections are based on global models and downscaled products from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Ch. 4: Projections for more on RCPs and future scenarios).

Vose, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Cutting out the Middleman: Calibrating and Validating a Dynamic Vegetation Model (ED2-PROSPECT5) Using Remotely Sensed Surface Reflectance

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. Using a single common set of parameters across all sites, the calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure. However, the calibrated model's predictions of leaf area index (LAI) were less robust, capturing only 46 % of the variability in the observations. Comparing the ED2 radiative transfer model with another two-stream soil–leaf–canopy radiative transfer model commonly used in remote sensing studies (PRO4SAIL) illustrated structural errors in the ED2 representation of direct radiation backscatter that resulted in systematic underestimation of reflectance. In addition, we also highlight that, to directly compare with a two-stream radiative transfer model like EDR, we had to perform an additional processing step to convert the directional reflectance estimates of AVIRIS to hemispherical reflectance (also known as “albedo”). In future work, we recommend that vegetation models add the capability to predict directional reflectance, to allow them to more directly assimilate a wide range of airborne and satellite reflectance products. We ultimately conclude that despite these challenges, using dynamic vegetation models to predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data.

Alexey N Shiklomanov↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Simulation of Irrigation in a Global Land Surface Model

Studies have shown that irrigated agriculture has substantial effects on local to regional hydrologic and atmospheric processes. These effects include increased evapotranspiration and near surface humidity, decreased air and ground temperature, augmented downwind precipitation, enhanced recharge, depletion of source water stocks, and overall changes to the regional water budget. However, developers of global offline and coupled modeling systems have been slow to incorporate irrigation. This presentation will describe progress towards simulating irrigation worldwide in the Land Information System (LIS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). We have developed and refined the ability to simulate sprinkler irrigation, furrow irrigation, paddy irrigation, and drip irrigation. We have reconciled multiple global and national irrigation, land cover, and crop type databases in an effort to (1) distinguish irrigated and rainfed agriculture, (2) simulate the proper distribution of crops (as sub-grid tiles) in each model grid pixel, and (3) apply the most likely irrigation method in each tile based on the crop type and country or state level information on the relative usage of sprinkler, flood, and drip irrigation. Using agricultural water withdrawal data, as available, for calibration and evaluation, we show that the implemented approach is promising but that much fine tuning remains to be done. In particular, irrigation model parameters that produce good results in one location often produce less satisfying results in others.

Matthew Rodell↗
NASA NTRS1998

Carbon-Water-Energy Relations for Selected River Basins

A biophysical process-based model was run using satellite, assimilated and ancillary data for four years (1987-1990) to calculate components of total evaporation (transpiration, interception, soil and snow evaporation), net radiation, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and net primary productivity over the global land surface. Satellite observations provided fractional vegetation cover, solar and photosynthetically active radiation incident of the surface, surface albedo, fractional cloud cover, air temperature and vapor pressure. The friction velocity and surface air pressure are obtained from a four dimensional data assimilation results, while precipitation is either only surface observations or a blended product of surface and satellite observations. All surface and satellite data are monthly mean values; precipitation has been disaggregated into daily values. All biophysical parameters of the model are prescribed according to published records. From these global land surface calculations results for river basins are derived using digital templates of basin boundaries. Comparisons with field observations (micrometeorologic, catchment water balance, biomass production) and atmospheric water budget analysis for monthly evaporation from six river basins have been done to assess errors in the calculations. Comparisons are also made with previous estimates of zonal variations of evaporation and net primary productivity. Efficiencies of transpiration, total evaporation and radiation use, and evaporative fraction for selected river basins will be presented.

Choudhury, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Role of Continental-scale Landmass in Monsoons-A GCM Investigation

It was argued by Chao and Chen (2001) that land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale is not a necessary condition for monsoons and that a monsoon is an ITCZ that have moved into the subtropics in its annual cycle of latitudinal movement. Chao and Chen supported their contention by GCM experiments in which they replaced landmass by ocean and were able to generate monsoons. However, land-sea thermal contrast does exist and must play a role in monsoonal rainfall distribution. Land-sea thermal contrast is one facet of continental-scale landmass. The other important characteristic of landmass is its topography. In this article the roles of landmass in monsoonal rainfall distribution and in middle latitude storm tracks are examined through GCM experiments. Comparison of a set of two GCM experiments in which the sea surface temperature (SST) from observations is prescribed from observations with and without a six-month delay reveals the role of Land-sea thermal contrast. Another set of experiments, which repeats the first set but with topography of all landmass reduced to zero, reveals the role of topography of landmass. These experiments confirm that land-sea thermal contrast is not a necessary condition for monsoons and that a monsoon should be viewed as an ITCZ displaced into the subtropics, instead of a continent-sized giant sea breeze. However, land-sea thermal contrast does have influence on the distribution of monsoonal rainfall. The temperature rise over south Asia as the season moves into summer helps the Asian monsoon to start early. However, this role is not the same as that of the land-sea thermal contrast as in the conventional explanation for the cause of monsoon. The heated landmass in summer contributes to the displacement of ITCZ into the subtropics. Also, the heated landmass in summer, by drawing moisture toward itself, limits the range of the summer storm tracks in the middle latitude oceans. On the ether hand, in winter the landmass does not present a competition for rainfall and thus allow middle latitude storm tracks to expand over the ocean.

Chao, Winston↗
NASA NTRS1983

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

Pairs of HCMM day-night thermal infrared (IR) data were selected to examine patterns of surface temperature and thermal inertia (TI) of peninsular Florida. GOES and NOAA-6 thermal IR, as well as National Climatic Center temperatures and rainfall, were also used. The HCMM apparent thermal inertia (ATI) images closely correspond to the General Soil Map of Florida, based on soil drainage classes. Areas with low ATI overlay well-drained soils, such as deep sands and drained organic soils. Areas with high ATI overlay areas with wetlands and bodies of water. The HCMM ATI images also correspond well with GOES-detected winter nocturnal cold-prone areas. Use of HCMM data with Carlson's energy balance model shows both high moisture availability (MA) and high thermal inertia (TI) of wetland-type surfaces and low MA and low TI of upland, well-drained soils. Since soil areas with low TI develop higher temperatures during the day, then antecedent patterns of highest maximum daytime surface temperature can also be used to predict nocturnal cold-prone areas in Florida.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

A lingering local exopshere created by a gas plume of a lunar lander

We model the expected local exosphere created by outgassing from a lunar lander plume water deposit located adjacent to a lunar lander. We assume the landing is near dawn within Lacus Mortis at 45oN. We consider a set of water desorption scenarios especially focusing on the water-surface desorption activation energy that can possess a distribution of energy states. Our initial simulation starts with a deposition surface having 1020 water molecules per square meter in a 2 km × 2 km region where 90% of the water is retained by weak water-water sorption interactions and 10% are bound by water-regolith sorption interactions. We find that the loosely bound water molecules in water-water interactions quickly desorb within hours after landing. However, water molecules bound to surface sites having a desorption activation greater than 0.7 eV were found to be retained until the source region rotated to later local times (i.e., surface temperature becomes relatively high). We found such time-delayed desorption leads to a tenuous but lingering exosphere emitted from the lander plume deposit region for many 10's of hours after landing. We also adjusted the initial condition by considering different landing local times and considered a case where 100% of the water is bound by water-regolith interactions (mimicking a porous regolith).

W.M. Farrell↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Initial Validation of Landsat 5 and 7 Derived Surface Water Temperature for U.S. Lakes, Reservoirs, and Estuaries

The United States Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research Control Act of 2014 identified the need for forecasting and monitoring harmful algal blooms (HAB) in lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries across the nation. Temperature is a driver in HAB forecasting models that affects both HAB growth rates and toxin production. Therefore, temperature data derived from the U.S. Geological Survey Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus thermal band products were validated across 35 lakes and reservoirs, and 24 estuaries. In situ data from the Water Quality Portal (WQP) were used for validation. The WQP serves data collected by state, federal, and tribal groups. Discrete in situ temperature data included measurements at 11,910 U.S. lakes and reservoirs from 1980 through 2015. Landsat temperature measurements could include 170,240 lakes and reservoirs once an operational product is achieved. The Landsat-derived temperature mean absolute error was 1.34 C in lake pixels (is) greater than180 m from land, 4.89 C at the land-water boundary, and 1.11 C in estuaries based on comparison against discrete surface in situ measurements. This is the first study to quantify Landsat resolvable U.S. lakes and reservoirs, and large-scale validation of an operational satellite provisional temperature climate data record algorithm. Due to the high performance of open water pixels, Landsat satellite data may supplement traditional in situ sampling by providing data for most U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries over consistent seasonal intervals (even with cloud cover) for an extended period of record of more than 35 years.

Schaeffer, Blake A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Need for High Spatial Resolution Multispectral Thermal Remote Sensing Data In Urban Heat Island Research

Although the study of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect dates back to the early 1800's when Luke Howard discovered London s heat island, it has only been with the advent of thermal remote sensing systems that the extent, characteristics, and impacts of the UHI have become to be understood. Analysis of the UHI effect is important because above all, this phenomenon can directly influence the health and welfare of urban residents. For example, in 1995, over 700 people died in Chicago due to heat-related causes. UHI s are characterized by increased temperature in comparison to rural areas and mortality rates during a heat wave increase exponentially with the maximum temperature, an effect that is exacerbated by the UHI. Aside from the direct impacts of the UHI on temperature, UHI s can produce secondary effects on local meteorology, including altering local wind patterns, increased development of clouds and fog, and increasing rates of precipitation either over, or downwind, of cities. Because of the extreme heterogeneity of the urban surface, in combination with the sprawl associated with urban growth, thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing data have become of significant importance in understanding how land cover and land use characteristics affect the development and intensification of the UHI. TIR satellite data have been used extensively to analyze the surface temperature regimes of cities to help observe and measure the impacts of surface temperatures across the urban landscape. However, the spatial scales at which satellite TIR data are collected are for the most part, coarse, with the finest readily available TIR data collected by the Landsat ETM+ sensor at 60m spatial resolution. For many years, we have collected high spatial resolution (10m) data using an airborne multispectral TIR sensor over a number of cities across the United States. These high resolution data have been used to develop an understanding of how discrete surfaces across the urban environment (e.g., rooftops, pavements) interact from a surface-lower atmosphere energy flux perspective, to force the development of the UHI. Moreover, the airborne TIR sensor we used in our UHI studies was a multispectral sensor that had six channels in the 8-12pm range. The advantages of collecting multispectral TIR data became readily evident as a valuable tool for better calculation of unique surface thermal energy responses for urban materials over the 8-12 micrometer region, and also for getting a better handle on surface emissivity characteristics for these discrete surfaces. In this presentation, we will provide evidence on the virtues of how high spatial resolution multispectral TIR data can provide for better analysis of the UHI that cannot now be attained via TIR data obtained from satellites. Furthermore, we wish to provide compelling evidence on why future TIR satellite sensors should collect data at fine spatial resolutions (e.g. less than or equal to 30m) to better allow for measurement of surface thermal energy fluxes from discrete urban surfaces, and to better understand how surface fluxes from different urban materials in cities around the world in different climatic regimes, affect development of the UHI characteristics.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multi-Decadal Aerosol Variations from 1980 to 2009: A Perspective from Observations and a Global Model

Aerosol variations and trends over different land and ocean regions during 1980-2009 are analyzed with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and observations from multiple satellite sensors and ground-based networks. Excluding time periods with large volcanic influences, the tendency of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface concentration over polluted land regions is consistent with the anthropogenic emission changes.The largest reduction occurs over Europe, and regions in North America and Russia also exhibit reductions. On the other hand, East Asia and South Asia show AOD increases, although relatively large amount of natural aerosols in Asia makes the total changes less directly connected to the pollutant emission trends. Over major dust source regions, model analysis indicates that the dust emissions over the Sahara and Sahel respond mainly to the near-surface wind speed, but over Central Asia they are largely influenced by ground wetness. The decreasing dust trend in the tropical North Atlantic is most closely associated with the decrease of Sahel dust emission and increase of precipitation over the tropical North Atlantic, likely driven by the sea surface temperature increase. Despite significant regional trends, the model-calculated global annual average AOD shows little changes over land and ocean in the past three decades, because opposite trends in different regions cancel each other in the global average. This highlights the need for regional-scale aerosol assessment, as the global average value conceals regional changes, and thus is not sufficient for assessing changes in aerosol loading.

atmopheric aerosols↗
NASA NTRS1991

The Earth Observing System

The Earth Observing System (EOS), the centerpiece of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth, is to study the interactions of the atmosphere, land, oceans, and living organisms, using the perspective of space to observe the earth as a global environmental system. To better understand the role of clouds in global change, EOS will measure incoming and emitted radiation at the top of the atmosphere. Then, to study characteristics of the atmosphere that influence radiation transfer between the top of the atmosphere and the surface, EOS wil observe clouds, water vapor and cloud water, aerosols, temperature and humidity, and directional effects. To elucidate the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and terrestrial and marine plants as a source or sink for carbon, EOS will observe the biological productivity of lands and oceans. EOS will also study surface properties that affect biological productivity at high resolution spatially and spectrally.

Wilson, Stan↗
NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗