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NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Framework for Creating a Function-based Design Tool for Failure Mode Identification

Knowledge of potential failure modes during design is critical for prevention of failures. Currently industries use procedures such as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Fault Tree analysis, or Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality analysis (FMECA), as well as knowledge and experience, to determine potential failure modes. When new products are being developed there is often a lack of sufficient knowledge of potential failure mode and/or a lack of sufficient experience to identify all failure modes. This gives rise to a situation in which engineers are unable to extract maximum benefits from the above procedures. This work describes a function-based failure identification methodology, which would act as a storehouse of information and experience, providing useful information about the potential failure modes for the design under consideration, as well as enhancing the usefulness of procedures like FMEA. As an example, the method is applied to fifteen products and the benefits are illustrated.

Arunajadai, Srikesh G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A "Mesosiderite" Rock from Northern Siberia, Russia: Not a Meteorite

A possible mesosiderite meteorite was found in the area of the Putorana Plateau, Noril'sk district, Siberia, Russia. Although this rock resembles a mesosiderite in its hand-sample aspect and in having Ni-bearing iron metal, it is not a meteorite. This inference is based on the lack of a fusion crust, the lack of cosmogenic nuclides, oxygen with terrestrial isotope ratios, and several mineral chemical criteria. Most likely, the rock is from the iron-metal-bearing basalts of the Siberian Trap basalt sequence, which are mined for their base and platinum-group metals. Mesosiderite imposters like this may be recognized by: (1) the presence of Cu metal in hand sample or as microscopic blebs in the low-Ni metal (kamacite), (2) the absence of high-Ni metal (taenite), and (3) the presence of iron carbide (cohenite) enclosing the kamacite. Even if these macroscopic tests are inconclusive, isotopic and mineral chemical tests will also distinguish rocks like this from mesosiderites.

Treiman, Allan H.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Summer 1997 Eruption at Pillan Patera on Io: Implications for Ultrabasic Lava Flow Emplacement

Galileo data and numerical modeling were used to investigate the summer 1997 eruption at Pillan Patera on Io. This event, now defined as 'Pillanian' eruption style, included a high-temperature (greater than 1600 C), possibly ultrabasic, 140-km-high plume eruption that deposited dark, orthopyroxene-rich pyroclastic material over greater than 125,000 sq km, followed by emplacement of dark flow-like material over greater than 3100 sq km to the north of the caldera. We estimate that the high-temperature, energetic episode of this eruption had a duration of 52- 167 days between May and September 1997, with peak eruption temperatures around June 28, 1997. Galileo 20 m/pixel images of part of the Pillan flow field show a widespread, rough, pitted surface that is unlike any flow surface we have seen before. We suggest that th.s surface may have resulted from (1) a fractured lava crust formed during rapid, low-viscosity lava surging, perhaps including turbulent flow emplacement; (2) disruption of the lava flow by explosive interaction with a volatile-rich substrate: or (3) a combination of 1 and 2 with or without accumulation of pyroclastic materials on the surface. Well-developed flow lobes are observed, suggesting that this is a relatively distal part of the flow field. Shadow measurements at flow margins indicate a thickness of approx. 8-10 m. We have modeled the emplacement of putative ultrabasic flows from the summer 1997 Pillan eruption using constraints from new Galileo data. Results suggest that either laminar sheet flows or turbulent channelized flows could have traveled 50-150 km on a flat. unobstructed surface, which is consistent with the estimated length of the Pillan flow field (approx. 60 km). Our modeling suggests low thermal erosion rates (less than 0.1 m/d), and that the formation of deep (greater than 20 m) erosion channels was unlikely, especially distal to the source. We calculate a volumetric flow rate of approx. 2-7 x l0(exp 3) cu m/s, which is greater than those for typical Mauna Loa/Kilauea flows but comparable to those for the (1783) Laki eruption and the inferred flow rates of the Roza flows in the Columbia River flood basalts. The differences in ultrabasic eruption styles on Earth and Io appear to be controlled by the different eruption environments: Plumes at sites of ultrabasic eruptions on Io suggest strong magma-volatile: interactions on a low-gravity body lacking an atmosphere, whereas the geology at sites of komatiite eruptions on Earth suggest mostly submarine emplacement of thick flows with a pronounced lack of subaerial explosive activity.

Williams, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Summer 1997 Eruption at Pillan Patera on Io: Implications for Ultrabasic Lava Flow Emplacement

Galileo data and numerical modeling were used to investigate the summer 1977 eruption at Pillan Patera on Io. This event, now defined as "Pillanian" eruption style, included a high-temperature (greater than 1600 C), possible ultrabasic , 140-km-high plume eruption that deposited dark, orthopyroxene-rich pyroclastic material over greater than 125,000 sq km, followed by emplacement of dark flow-like material over greater than 3100 sq km to the north of the caldera. We estimate that the high-temperature, energetic episode of this eruption had a duration of 52 - 167 days between May and September 1997, with peak eruption temperatures around June 28, 1997. Galileo 20 m/pixel images of part of the Pillan flow field show a wide-spread, rough, pitted surface that is unlike any flow surface we have seen before. We suggest that this surface may have resulted from: 1. A fractured lava crust formed during rapid, low-viscosity lava surging, perhaps including turbulent flow emplacement. 2. Disruption of the lava flow by explosive interaction with a volatile-rich substrate. or 3. A combination of 1 and 2 with or without accumulation of pyroclastic material on the surface. Well-developed flow lobes are observed, suggesting that this is a relatively distant part of the flow field.Shadow measurements at flow margins indicate a thickness of-8 - 10 m. We have modeled the emplacement of putative ultrabasic flow from the summer 1997 Pillan eruption using constraints from new Galileo data. Results suggest that either laminar sheet flows or turbulent channelized flows could have traveled 50 - 150 km on a flat, unobstructed surface, which is consistent with the estimated length of the Pillan flow field (approx. 60 km). Our modeling suggests low thermal erosion rates (less than 4.1 m/d), and that the formation of deep (greater than 20 m) erosion channels was unlikely, especially distal to the source. We calculate a volumetric flow rate of approx. 2 - 7 x 10(exp 3)cu m/s, which is greater than those for typical Mauna Loa/Kilaueaq flows but comparable to those for the (1783) Laki eruption and the inferred flow rates of the Roza flows in the Columbia River flood basalts. The differences in ultrabasic eruption styles on Earth and Io appear to be controlled by the different eruption environments; Plumes at sites of ultrabasic eruptions on Io suggest strong magma-volatile interactions on a low-gravity body lacking an atmosphere, whereas the geology at sites of komatiite eruptions on Earth suggest mostly submarine emplacement of thick flows with a pronounced lack of subaerial explosive activity.

Williams, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Method of Estimating Transient-Cavity Diameters for Impact Craters Formed in Dry Sand

Analyses of impact craters formed in laboratory experiments historically have been the source of many fundamental observations and interpretations of the impact-cratering process itself. Due to its ready availability, ease of handling, and lack of strength, dry sand of various types has been the target material of choice in the majority of such experiments. A consequence of its lack of intrinsic strength, however, is dry sand's inability to maintain slopes above its angle of repose. Evidence from field observations of simple terrestrial craters and laboratory craters formed in more cohesive granular media suggests that transient cavities are similar to paraboloids in shape. Cross-sections of craters formed in dry sand, however, are nearly conical with the wall slopes at or near the angle of repose, indicating that the original crater form has been modified by one or more processes, among which is simple slope failure. Because the dimensions and shape of the transient cavity reflect the detailed conditions of a given impact event, its characterization has long been a desired goal in experimentation. A means of estimating the position of the transient cavity's rim is suggested below, relying on determination of velocities of material ejected from the growing cavity.

Cintala, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Investigating the Partitioning of Inorganic Elements Consumed by Humans between the Various Fractions of Human Wastes: An Alternative Approach

The elemental composition of food consumed by astronauts is well defined. The major elements carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen and sulfur are taken up in large amounts and these are often associated with the organic fraction (carbohydrates, proteins, fats etc) of human tissue. On the other hand, a number of the elements are located in the extracellular fluids and can be accounted for in the liquid and solid waste fraction of humans. These elements fall into three major categories - cationic macroelements (e.g. Ca, K, Na, Mg and Si), anionic macroelements (e.g. P, S and Cl and 17 essential microelements, (e.g. Fe, Mn, Cr, Co, Cu, Zn, Se and Sr). When provided in the recommended concentrations to an adult healthy human, these elements should not normally accumulate in humans and will eventually be excreted in the different human wastes. Knowledge of the partitioning of these elements between the different human waste fractions is important in understanding (a) developing waste separation technologies, (b) decision-making on how these elements can be recovered for reuse in space habitats, and (c) to developing the processors for waste management. Though considerable literature exists on these elements, there is a lack of understanding and often conflicting data. Two major reasons for these problems include the lack of controlled experimental protocols and the inherently large variations between human subjects (Parker and Gallagher, 1988). We have used the existing knowledge of human nutrition and waste from the available literature and NASA documentation to build towards a consensus to typify and chemically characterize the various human wastes. It is our belief, that this could be a building block towards integrating a human life support and waste processing in a closed system.

Wignarajah, Kanapathipillai↗
NASA NTRS2003

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Characteristics and Influence of Biosmoke on the Fine-Particle Ionic Composition Measured in Asian Outflow during the Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P) Experiment

We investigate the sources, prevalence, and fine-particle inorganic composition of biosmoke over the western Pacific Ocean between 24 February and 10 April 2001. The analysis is based on highly time-resolved airborne measurements of gaseous and fine- particle inorganic chemical composition made during the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment. At latitudes below approximately 25 deg. N, relatively pure biomass burning plumes of enhanced fine-particle potassium, nitrate, ammonium, light-absorbing aerosols, and CO concentrations were observed in plumes that back trajectories and satellite fire map data suggest originated from biomass burning in southeast Asia. Fine-particle water-soluble potassium (K+) is confirmed to be a unique biosmoke tracer, and its prevalence throughout the experiment indicates that approximately 20% of the TRACE-P Asian outflow plumes were influenced, to some extent, by biomass or biofuel burning emissions. At latitudes above 25 deg. N, highly mixed urban/industrial and biosmoke plumes, indicated by SO(sup 2, sub 4) and K+, were observed in 5 out of 53 plumes. Most plumes were found in the Yellow Sea and generally were associated with much higher fine-particle loadings than plumes lacking a biosmoke influence. The air mass back trajectories of these mixed plumes generally pass through the latitude range of between 34 deg. and 40 deg. N on the eastern China coast, a region that includes the large urban centers of Beijing and Tianjin. A lack of biomass burning emissions based on fire maps and high correlations between K+ and pollution tracers (e.g., S(sup 2, sub 4) suggest biofuel sources. Ratios of fine-particle potassium to sulfate are used to provide an estimate of relative contributions of biosmoke emissions to the mixed Asian plumes. The ratio is highly correlated with fine-particle volume (r(sup 2) = 0.85) and predicts that for the most polluted plume encounter in TRACE-P, approximately 60% of the plume is associated with biosmoke emissions. On average, biosmoke contributes approximately 35-40% to the measured fine inorganic aerosol mass in the mixed TRACE-P plumes intercepted north of 25% latitude.

Ma, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Cellular Mechanisms Underlying Bone-Forming Cell Proliferative Response to Hypergravity

Life on Earth has evolved under the continuous influence of gravity (1-g). As humans explore and develop space, however, we must learn to adapt to an environment with little or no gravity. Studies indicate that lack of weightbearing for vertebrates occurring with immobilization, paralysis, or in a microgravity environment may cause muscle and bone atrophy through cellular and subcellular level mechanisms. We hypothesize that gravity is needed for the efficient transduction of cell growth and survival signals from the extra-cellular matrix (ECM) (consisting of molecules such as collagen, fibronectin, and laminin) in mechanosensitive tissues. We test for the presence of gravity-sensitive pathways in bone-forming cells (osteoblasts) using hypergravity applied by a cell culture centrifuge. Stimulation of 50 times gravity (50-g) increased proliferation in primary rat osteoblasts for cells grown on collagen Type I and fibronectin, but not on laminin or uncoated surfaces. Survival was also enhanced during hypergravity stimulation by the presence of ECM. Bromodeoxyuridine incorporation in proliferating cells showed an increase in the number of actively dividing cells from about 60% at 1-g to over 90% at 25-g. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was used to test for all possible integrins. Our combined results indicate that beta1 and/or beta3 integrin subunits may be involved. These data indicate that gravity mechanostimulation of osteoblast proliferation involves specific matrix-integrin signalling pathways which are sensitive to g-level. Further research to define the mechanisms involved will provide direction so that we may better adapt and counteract bone atrophy caused by the lack of weightbearing.

Vercoutere, W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evidence for vestibular regulation of autonomic functions in a mouse genetic model

Physiological responses to changes in the gravitational field and body position, as well as symptoms of patients with anxiety-related disorders, have indicated an interrelationship between vestibular function and stress responses. However, the relative significance of cochlear and vestibular information in autonomic regulation remains unresolved because of the difficulties in distinguishing the relative contributions of other proprioceptive and interoceptive inputs, including vagal and somatic information. To investigate the role of cochlear and vestibular function in central and physiological responses, we have examined the effects of increased gravity in wild-type mice and mice lacking the POU homeodomain transcription factor Brn-3.1 (Brn-3bPou4f3). The only known phenotype of the Brn-3.1(-/-) mouse is related to hearing and balance functions, owing to the failure of cochlear and vestibular hair cells to differentiate properly. Here, we show that normal physiological responses to increased gravity (2G exposure), such as a dramatic drop in body temperature and concomitant circadian adjustment, were completely absent in Brn-3.1(-/-) mice. In line with the lack of autonomic responses, the massive increase in neuronal activity after 2G exposure normally detected in wild-type mice was virtually abolished in Brn-3.1(-/-) mice. Our results suggest that cochlear and vestibular hair cells are the primary regulators of autonomic responses to altered gravity and provide genetic evidence that these cells are sufficient to alter neural activity in regions involved in autonomic and neuroendocrine control.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2002

Neurovestibular modulation of circadian and homeostatic regulation: vestibulohypothalamic connection?

Chronic exposure to increased force environments (+G) has pronounced effects on the circadian and homeostatic regulation of body temperature (T(b)), ambulatory activity (Act), heart rate, feeding, and adiposity. By using the Brn 3.1 knockout mouse, which lacks vestibular hair cells, we recently described a major role of the vestibular system in mediating some of these adaptive responses. The present study used the C57BL6JEi-het mouse strain (het), which lacks macular otoconia, to elucidate the contribution of specific vestibular receptors. In this study, eight het and eight WT mice were exposed to 2G for 8 weeks by means of chronic centrifugation. In addition, eight het and eight WT mice were maintained as 1G controls in similar conditions. Upon 2G exposure, the WT exhibited a decrease in T(b) and an attenuated T(b) circadian rhythm. Act means and rhythms also were attenuated. Body mass and food intake were significantly lower than the 1G controls. After 8 weeks, percent body fat was significantly lower in the WT mice (P < 0.0001). In contrast, the het mice did not exhibit a decrease in mean T(b) and only a slight decrease in T(b) circadian amplitude. het Act levels were attenuated similarly to the WT mice. Body mass and food intake were only slightly attenuated in the het mice, and percent body fat, after 8 weeks, was not different in the 2G het group. These results link the vestibular macular receptors with specific alterations in homeostatic and circadian regulation.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗
NASA NTRS2002

Do vestibular otolith organs participate in human orthostatic blood pressure control?

We hypothesized that vestibular otolith organ stimulation contributes to human orthostatic responses. Twelve subjects underwent three 60 degrees upright tilts: (1) with the neck flexed from 0 degrees to 30 degrees relative to the body during 60 degrees tilt, such that the head moved from horizontal to 90 degrees above horizontal (0 to 1 Gz otolith stimulation); (2) with the head and body aligned, such that they tilted together to 60 degrees (0 to 0.87 Gz otolith stimulation); and (3) with the neck flexed 30 degrees relative to the body during supine conditions, and the neck then extended to -30 degrees during 60 degrees body tilting, such that the head remained at 30 degrees above horizontal throughout body tilting (constant 0.5 Gz otolith stimulation). All three tilt procedures increased thoracic impedance, sympathetic nerve activity (N = 8 of 12), arterial pressure, and heart rate relative to supine conditions (all P < 0.04). Within the first 20 s of tilt, arterial pressure increased most obviously in the 0 to 1 Gz otolith condition. Thoracic impedance tended to increase more in otolith-constant conditions, but no dependent variable differed significantly between tilt conditions, and no significant time x tilt interactions emerged. Otolith inputs may contribute to early transient adjustments to orthostasis. However, lack of significant main effects of tilt condition and time x tilt interactions suggests that potential otolith effects on the variables we studied are relatively subtle and ephemeral, or that other mechanisms compensate for a lack of change in otolith input with orthostasis.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2002

Immunoglobulin Fc gamma receptor promotes immunoglobulin uptake, immunoglobulin-mediated calcium increase, and neurotransmitter release in motor neurons

Receptors for the Fc portion of immunoglobulin G (IgG; FcgammaRs) facilitate IgG uptake by effector cells as well as cellular responses initiated by IgG binding. In earlier studies, we demonstrated that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patient IgG can be taken up by motor neuron terminals and transported retrogradely to the cell body and can alter the function of neuromuscular synapses, such as increasing intracellular calcium and spontaneous transmitter release from motor axon terminals after passive transfer. In the present study, we examined whether FcgammaR-mediated processes can contribute to these effects of ALS patient immunoglobulins. F(ab')(2) fragments (which lack the Fc portion) of ALS patient IgG were not taken up by motor axon terminals and were not retrogradely transported. Furthermore, in a genetically modified mouse lacking the gamma subunit of the FcR, the uptake of whole ALS IgG and its ability to enhance intracellular calcium and acetylcholine release were markedly attenuated. These data suggest that FcgammaRs appear to participate in IgG uptake into motor neurons as well as IgG-mediated increases in intracellular calcium and acetylcholine release from motor axon terminals. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2001

The skeletal structure of insulin-like growth factor I-deficient mice

The importance of insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) for growth is well established. However, the lack of IGF-I on the skeleton has not been examined thoroughly. Therefore, we analyzed the structural properties of bone from mice rendered IGF-I deficient by homologous recombination (knockout [k/o]) using histomorphometry, peripheral quantitative computerized tomography (pQCT), and microcomputerized tomography (muCT). The k/o mice were 24% the size of their wild-type littermates at the time of study (4 months). The k/o tibias were 28% and L1 vertebrae were 26% the size of wild-type bones. Bone formation rates (BFR) of k/o tibias were 27% that of the wild-type littermates. The k/o bones responded normally to growth hormone (GH; 1.7-fold increase) and supranormally to IGF-I (5.2-fold increase) with respect to BFR. Cortical thickness of the proximal tibia was reduced 17% in the k/o mouse. However, trabecular bone volume (bone volume/total volume [BV/TV]) was increased 23% (male mice) and 88% (female mice) in the k/o mice compared with wild-type controls as a result of increased connectivity, increased number, and decreased spacing of the trabeculae. These changes were either less or not found in L1. Thus, lack of IGF-I leads to the development of a bone structure, which, although smaller, appears more compact.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗
NASA NTRS2001

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fractal mechanisms in the electrophysiology of the heart

The mathematical concept of fractals provides insights into complex anatomic branching structures that lack a characteristic (single) length scale, and certain complex physiologic processes, such as heart rate regulation, that lack a single time scale. Heart rate control is perturbed by alterations in neuro-autonomic function in a number of important clinical syndromes, including sudden cardiac death, congestive failure, cocaine intoxication, fetal distress, space sickness and physiologic aging. These conditions are associated with a loss of the normal fractal complexity of interbeat interval dynamics. Such changes, which may not be detectable using conventional statistics, can be quantified using new methods derived from "chaos theory.".

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1989

The case for extraterrestrial causes of extinction

The dramatic increase in our knowledge of large-body impacts that have occurred in Earth's history has led to strong arguments for the plausibility of meteorite impact as a cause of extinction. Proof of causation is often hampered, however, by our inability to demonstrate the synchronism of specific impacts and extinctions. A central problem is range truncation: the last reported occurrences of fossil taxa generally underestimate the true times of extinction. Range truncation, because of gaps in sedimentation, lack of preservation, or lack of discovery, can make sudden extinctions appear gradual and gradual extinctions appear sudden. Also, stepwise extinction may appear as an artefact of range truncation. These effects are demonstrated by experiments performed on data from field collections of Cretaceous ammonities from Zumaya (Spain). The challenge for future research is to develop a new calculus for treating biostratigraphic data so that fossils can provide more accurate assessments of the timing of extinctions.

Non-NASA Center↗