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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Future of Integrated Performance Modeling in the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment Project

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was a significant step forward in efforts to robustly quantify the risk to crew health for exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively assess and characterize risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. The Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project seeks to characterize CHP risks by expanding beyond the foundation established by its PRA predecessors like IMM and MEDPRAT, that simulate medical risk metrics like loss of crew life and evacuations. One of the new risk measures in the CHP-PRA system is embodied in our Performance Risk Model (PRisM). PRisM provides a novel way of assessing crew performance on mission tasks, using a generalized framework which relates back to NASA-STD-3001. This approach allows PRisM to capture and integrate data from a variety of different domains into a single, unified, reproducible representation of astronaut performance. In this presentation, we discuss the motivation for the CHP-PRA work and give a high level overview of the goals of the project, outline the forward work for PRisM, and discuss collaboration opportunities for the community who might explore if their domain knowledge and data could be represented, integrated, and quantified with these tools, whose outcomes are metrics useful for supporting operational mission planning and decision making.

Lauren McIntyre↗
DOE OSTI2012

China's Building Energy Demand: Long-Term Implications from a Detailed Assessment

We present here a detailed, service-based model of China’s building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China’s building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China’s building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China’s building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

Building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2017

Tractable flux-driven temperature, density, and rotation profile evolution with the quasilinear gyrokinetic transport model QuaLiKiz

Quasilinear turbulent transport models are a successful tool for prediction of core tokamak plasma profiles in many regimes. Their success hinges on the reproduction of local nonlinear gyrokinetic fluxes. We focus on significant progress in the quasilinear gyrokinetic transport model QuaLiKiz (Bourdelle et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 014036), which employs an approximated solution of the mode structures to significantly speed up computation time compared to full linear gyrokinetic solvers. Optimisation of the dispersion relation solution algorithm within integrated modelling applications leads to flux calculations $\times {10}^{6-7}$ faster than local nonlinear simulations. This allows tractable simulation of flux-driven dynamic profile evolution including all transport channels: ion and electron heat, main particles, impurities, and momentum. Furthermore, QuaLiKiz now includes the impact of rotation and temperature anisotropy induced poloidal asymmetry on heavy impurity transport, important for W-transport applications. Application within the JETTO integrated modelling code results in 1 s of JET plasma simulation within 10 h using 10 CPUs. Simultaneous predictions of core density, temperature, and toroidal rotation profiles for both JET hybrid and baseline experiments are presented, covering both ion and electron turbulence scales. The simulations are successfully compared to measured profiles, with agreement mostly in the 5%–25% range according to standard figures of merit. QuaLiKiz is now open source and available at www.qualikiz.com.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimization models for integrated biorefinery operations

Variations of physical and chemical characteristics of biomass lead to an uneven flow of biomass in a biorefinery, which reduces equipment utilization and increases operational costs. Uncertainty of biomass supply and high processing costs increase the risk of investing in the US’s cellulosic biofuel industry. We propose a stochastic programming model to streamline processes within a biorefinery. A chance constraint models system’s reliability requirement that the reactor is operating at a high utilization rate given uncertain biomass moisture content, particle size distribution, and equipment failure. The model identifies operating conditions of equipment and inventory level to maintain a continuous flow of biomass to the reactor. Furthermore, the sample average approximation method approximates the chance constraint and a bisection search-based heuristic solves this approximation. A case study is developed using real-life data collected at Idaho National Laboratory’s biomass processing facility. An extensive computational analysis indicates that sequencing of biomass bales based on moisture level, increasing storage capacity, and managing particle size distribution, increases utilization of the reactor and reduces operational costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Results of wind tunnel tests of an ASRM configured 0.03 scale Space Shuttle integrated vehicle model (47-OTS) in the AEDC 16-foot transonic wind tunnel, volume 2

An experimental Aerodynamic and Aero-Acoustic loads data base was obtained at transonic Mach numbers for the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle configured with the ASRM Solid Rocket Boosters as an increment to the current flight configuration (RSRB). These data were obtained during transonic wind tunnel tests (IA 613A) conducted in the Arnold Engineering Development Center 16-Foot transonic propulsion wind tunnel from March 27, 1991 through April 12, 1991. This test is the first of a series of two tests covering the Mach range from 0.6 to 3.5. Steady state surface static and fluctuating pressure distributions over the Orbiter, External Tank and Solid Rocket Boosters of the Shuttle Integrated Vehicle were measured. Total Orbiter forces, Wing forces and Elevon hinge moments were directly measured as well from force balances. Two configurations of Solid Rocket Boosters were tested, the Redesigned Solid Rocket Booster (RSRB) and the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM). The effects of the position (i.e., top, bottom, top and bottom) of the Integrated Electronics Assembly (IEA) box, mounted on the SRB attach ring, were obtained on the ASRM configured model. These data were obtained with and without Solid Plume Simulators which, when used, matched as close as possible the flight derived pressures on the Orbiter and External Tank base. Data were obtained at Mach numbers ranging from 0.6 to 1.55 at a Unit Reynolds Number of 2.5 million per foot through model angles of attack from -8 to +4 degrees at sideslip angles of 0, +4 and -4 degrees.

Marroquin, J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Results of wind tunnel tests of an ASRM configured 0.03 scale Space Shuttle integrated vehicle model (47-OTS) in the AEDC 16-foot Transonic wind tunnel (IA613A), volume 1

An experimental Aerodynamic and Aero-Acoustic loads data base was obtained at transonic Mach numbers for the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle configured with the ASRM Solid Rocket Boosters as an increment to the current flight configuration (RSRB). These data were obtained during transonic wind tunnel tests (IA 613A) conducted in the Arnold Engineering Development Center 16-Foot transonic propulsion wind tunnel from March 27, 1991 through April 12, 1991. This test is the first of a series of two tests covering the Mach range from 0.6 to 3.5. Steady state surface static and fluctuating pressure distributions over the Orbiter, External Tank and Solid Rocket Boosters of the Shuttle Integrated Vehicle were measured. Total Orbiter forces, Wing forces and Elevon hinge moments were directly measured as well from force balances. Two configurations of Solid Rocket Boosters were tested, the Redesigned Solid Rocket Booster (RSRB) and the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM). The effects of the position (i.e. top, bottom, top and bottom) of the Integrated Electronics Assembly (IEA) box, mounted on the SRB attach ring, were obtained on the ASRM configured model. These data were obtained with and without Solid Plume Simulators which, when used, matched as close as possible the flight derived pressures on the Orbiter and External Tank base. Data were obtained at Mach numbers ranging from 0.6 to 1.55 at a Unit Reynolds Number of 2.5 million per foot through model angles of attack from -8 to +4 degrees at sideslip angles of 0, +4 and -4 degrees.

Marroquin, J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surfactant-Specific AI-Driven Molecular Design: Integrating Generative Models, Predictive Modeling, and Reinforcement Learning for Tailored Surfactant Synthesis

Molecular design is a critical aspect of various scientific and industrial fields, where the properties of molecules hold significant importance. In this study, a 3-fold methodology design is presented that leverages the power of generative artificial intelligence (AI), predictive modeling, and reinforcement learning to create tailored molecules with desired properties. This model synergistically combines deep learning techniques with Self-Referencing Embedded Strings (SELFIES) molecular representation to build a generative model that generates valid molecules and a graphical neural network model that accurately forecasts molecular properties. The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) coupled with reinforcement learning helps refine molecule generation based on targeted attributes. Data from an experimental study involving surfactants were used to test the framework. A validation of the structural integrity of the molecules generated was conducted, and Tanimoto similarities were used to quantify the similarity and diversity between the original and generated molecular structures. Also, saliency maps for the generated surfactants were produced to identify the features explaining the property values. Lastly, molecular dynamics simulations were used to validate the stability of the generated molecules. The results showed that the proposed framework can effectively produce valid molecules within the set property threshold value.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1993

Integrated CFD modeling of gas turbine combustors

3D, curvilinear, multi-domain CFD analysis is becoming a valuable tool in gas turbine combustor design. Used as a supplement to experimental testing. CFD analysis can provide improved understanding of combustor aerodynamics and used to qualitatively assess new combustor designs. This paper discusses recent advancements in CFD combustor methodology, including the timely integration of the design (i.e. CAD) and analysis (i.e. CFD) processes. Allied Signal's F124 combustor was analyzed at maximum power conditions. The assumption of turbulence levels at the nozzle/swirler inlet was shown to be very important in the prediction of combustor exit temperatures. Predicted exit temperatures were compared to experimental rake data, and good overall agreement was seen. Exit radial temperature profiles were well predicted, while the predicted pattern factor was 25 percent higher than the harmonic-averaged experimental pattern factor.

Fuller, E. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A thermodynamic model of integrated liquid-to-liquid thermoelectric heat pump systems

Thermoelectric (TE) heat pumps (TEHPs) are advantageous for heating and cooling in various applications because of their modularity and simple design. A TEHP system includes the TE modules with p- and n-type materials bonded to substrates, plus heat exchangers, thermal interfaces to the heat exchangers, and heat transfer fluids. Although modeling an individual TE module has been extensively studied, limited studies have reported performance at the larger system-level. Furthermore, no prior study has addressed the impact of temperature-dependent TE material properties (e.g., electric resistivity, thermal conductivity, and Seebeck coefficient) on overall heat-pump-system-level performance. Here, this work presents a mathematical model for TEHP system performance based on Goldsmid's approach for TE material performance, “effective” TE material properties, Gnielinski's correlation for convective heat transfer, and thermal balance theory for a heat exchange network. This combined approach provides an accurate model of the liquid-to-liquid TEHP system. Three different approaches—one empirical, one based on the manufacturer's specifications, and one drawn from the literature—were then used to determine values for TE material properties. The first two methods treated properties as constants, while the last approach treated properties as surface-temperature-based functions. Finally, experimental TEHP data was used to validate the models, all with relative absolute deviations of approximately 10% when predicting heating capacity and 10%–25% when forecasting cooling capacity up to a 30 K surface temperature lift. The results demonstrated that, at the TEHP system level, the TE material properties could be treated as constants, avoiding solver iterations and reducing the performance uncertainty by up to 95%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1991

Development of theoretical models of integrated millimeter wave antennas

Extensive radiation patterns for Linear Tapered Slot Antenna (LTSA) Single Elements are presented. The directivity of LTSA elements is predicted correctly by taking the cross polarized pattern into account. A moment method program predicts radiation patterns for air LTSAs with excellent agreement with experimental data. A moment method program was also developed for the task LTSA Array Modeling. Computations performed with this program are in excellent agreement with published results for dipole and monopole arrays, and with waveguide simulator experiments, for more complicated structures. Empirical modeling of LTSA arrays demonstrated that the maximum theoretical element gain can be obtained. Formulations were also developed for calculating the aperture efficiency of LTSA arrays used in reflector systems. It was shown that LTSA arrays used in multibeam systems have a considerable advantage in terms of higher packing density, compared with waveguide feeds. Conversion loss of 10 dB was demonstrated at 35 GHz.

Yngvesson, K. Sigfrid↗
NASA NTRS2006

Factors Influencing the Selection of the Systems Integration Organizational Model Type for Planning and Implementing Government High-Technology Programs

While there has been extensive research in defining project organizational structures for traditional projects, little research exists to support high technology government project s organizational structure definition. High-Technology Government projects differ from traditional projects in that they are non-profit, span across Government-Industry organizations, typically require significant integration effort, and are strongly susceptible to a volatile external environment. Systems Integration implementation has been identified as a major contributor to both project success and failure. The literature research bridges program management organizational planning, systems integration, organizational theory, and independent project reports, in order to assess Systems Integration (SI) organizational structure selection for improving the high-technology government project s probability of success. This paper will describe the methodology used to 1) Identify and assess SI organizational structures and their success rate, and 2) Identify key factors to be used in the selection of these SI organizational structures during the acquisition strategy process.

Thomas, Leann↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrated Multiscale Modeling Framework for Unconventional Stimulation and Production (Final Report)

The production of oil and gas from unconventional reservoirs largely depends upon two main features operating at different scales: (1) the establishment of a reservoir scale stimulated fracture network that effectively communicates with the rock volume, enhancing permeability and transport to the wellbore and (2) the coupled multi-phase flow, chemical and mechanical processes affecting the migration of hydrocarbons from the low permeability country rock adjacent to the stimulated fracture network. To date, there has been no simulation framework that allows seamless and integrated prediction of these features across spatial scales extending from the pore structure of the reservoir rock to the volume of the reservoir. In addition, there has been a lack of suitable field measurements to test such models, as stimulation and production data are often proprietary and not freely available to national laboratories and academic institutions. New multi-scale simulation capabilities are needed that are validated against suitable field-based research experiments on hydraulic fracturing and shale production.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling and Integration of Flexible Demand in Heat and Electricity Integrated Energy System

This paper is focused on utilizing customers' flexible energy demand, including both heat demand and electricity demand, to provide balancing resources and relieve the difficulties of integrating variable wind power with the combined heat and power. The integration of heat and electricity energy systems providing customers with multiple options for fulfilling their energy demand is described. Customer aggregators are introduced to supply downstream demand in the most economical way. Controlling customers' energy consumption behaviors enables aggregators to adjust their energy demand in response to supply conditions. Incorporating aggregators' flexible energy demand into the centralized energy dispatch model, a two-level optimization problem (TLOP) is first formed where the system operatormaximizes social welfare subject to aggregators' strategies, which minimize the energy purchase cost. Furthermore, the subproblems are linearized based on several reasonable assumptions. Optimal conditions of the subproblems are then transformed as energy demands to be described as explicit piecewise-linear functions of electricity prices corresponding to the demand bid curves. In this way, the TLOP is transformed to a standard optimization problem, which requires aggregators to only submit a demand bid to run the centralized energy dispatch program. All the parameters pertaining to the aggregators' energy consumption models are internalized in the bid curves. The proposed technique is illustrated in a modified testing system.

combined heat and power (CHP)↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrated Data Modeling and Simulation on the Joint Polar Satellite System Program

The Joint Polar Satellite System is a modern, large-scale, complex, multi-mission aerospace program, and presents a variety of design, testing and operational challenges due to: (1) System Scope: multi-mission coordination, role, responsibility and accountability challenges stemming from porous/ill-defined system and organizational boundaries (including foreign policy interactions) (2) Degree of Concurrency: design, implementation, integration, verification and operation occurring simultaneously, at multiple scales in the system hierarchy (3) Multi-Decadal Lifecycle: technical obsolesce, reliability and sustainment concerns, including those related to organizational and industrial base. Additionally, these systems tend to become embedded in the broader societal infrastructure, resulting in new system stakeholders with perhaps different preferences (4) Barriers to Effective Communications: process and cultural issues that emerge due to geographic dispersion and as one spans boundaries including gov./contractor, NASA/Other USG, and international relationships.

Roberts, Christopher J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗