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At least 685 records · Page 38

Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration

Abstract. Future global changes will impact carbon (C) fluxes and pools in most terrestrial ecosystems and the feedback of terrestrial carbon cycling to atmospheric CO2. Determining the vulnerability of C in ecosystems to future environmental change is thus vital for targeted land management and policy. The C capacity of an ecosystem is a function of its C inputs (e.g., net primary productivity – NPP) and how long C remains in the system before being respired back to the atmosphere. The proportion of C capacity currently stored by an ecosystem (i.e., its C saturation) provides information about the potential for long-term C pools to be altered by environmental and land management regimes. We estimated C capacity, C saturation, NPP, and ecosystem C residence time in six US grasslands spanning temperature and precipitation gradients by integrating high temporal resolution C pool and flux data with a process-based C model. As expected, NPP across grasslands was strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation (MAP), yet C residence time was not related to MAP or mean annual temperature (MAT). We link soil temperature, soil moisture, and inherent C turnover rates (potentially due to microbial function and tissue quality) as determinants of carbon residence time. Overall, we found that intermediates between extremes in moisture and temperature had low C saturation, indicating that C in these grasslands may trend upwards and be buffered against global change impacts. Hot and dry grasslands had greatest C saturation due to both small C inputs through NPP and high C turnover rates during soil moisture conditions favorable for microbial activity. Additionally, leaching of soil C during monsoon events may lead to C loss. C saturation was also high in tallgrass prairie due to frequent fire that reduced inputs of aboveground plant material. Accordingly, we suggest that both hot, dry ecosystems and those frequently disturbed should be subject to careful land management and policy decisions to prevent losses of C stored in these systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rock-Sourced Nitrogen in Semi-Arid, Shale-Derived California Soils

Models suggest that rock-derived nitrogen (N) inputs are of global importance to ecosystem N budgets; however, field studies demonstrating the significance of rock N inputs are rare. We examined rock-derived N fluxes in soils derived from sedimentary rocks along a catena formed under a semi-arid climate. Our measurements demonstrate that there are distinct and traceable pools of N in the soil and bedrock and that the fraction of rock-derived N declines downslope along the catena. We used geochemical mass balance weathering flux measurements to estimate a rock-derived N flux of 0.145 to 0.896 kg ha -1 yr -1 at the ridgecrest. We also developed independent N flux estimates using a 15 N-based isotope mixing model. While geochemical mass-balance-based estimates fell within the 95% confidence range derived from the isotope mixing model (-1.1 to 44.3 kg ha -1 yr -1 ), this range was large due to uncertainty in values for atmospheric 15 N deposition. Along the catena, N isotopes suggest a diminishing effect of rock-derived N downslope. Overall, we found that despite relatively large N pools within the saprolite and bedrock, slow chemical weathering and landscape denudation limit the influence of rock-derived N, letting atmospheric N deposition (7.1 kg ha -1 yr -1 ) and N fixation (0.9-3.1 kg ha -1 yr -1 ) dominate N inputs to this grassland ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil carbon sequestration potential and the identification of hotspots in the Eastern Corn Belt of the United States

Soil carbon sequestration is a significant CO 2 mitigation strategy but precise assessments of sequestration require spatially explicit modeling of potential changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) in response to soil, climate, land condition and management interactions. We assessed the SOC sequestration potential of the Eastern Corn Belt (ECB) in the USA (Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) in response to the adoption of conservation farming practices and land use change (pasture and forestation) using the SOCRATES model. Input data was provided through an intersection of the STATSGO, National Land Cover Database and a PRISM climate surface. At the end of the 20th century, the 15.3 Mha of cropped soils in the ECB contained 632 Tg C, an estimated reduction of 52% since the introduction of agriculture in the mid-1800s. Complete adoption of no-tillage practices on Prime Cropland would potentially recover 147 Tg SOC over 20 years, whereas a continuation of conventional tillage would produce a loss of 35 Tg SOC. Sequestration hotspots (> 500 Gg increase in SOC) under no-tillage cover 2.3 Mha providing 28 Tg C over 20 years. The conversion of Marginal (non-Prime) agricultural lands to Forests would yield an additional 13 Tg C in SOC and 381 Tg C in aboveground biomass. The rehabilitation of Minelands to Forest would yield an additional 4 Tg C in SOC and 42 Tg C in biomass. Here, opportunities to sequester C in the ECB via tillage and reforestation are substantial and should be incorporated into regional and national climate change mitigation strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Structural response reconstruction using a system-equivalent singular vector basis

Here, this paper develops a novel method for reconstructing the full-field response of structural dynamic systems using sparse measurements. The singular value decomposition is applied to a frequency response matrix relating the structural response to physical loads, base motion, or modal loads. The left singular vectors form a non-physical reduced basis that can be used for response reconstruction with far fewer sensors than existing methods. The contributions of the singular vectors to measured response are termed singular-vector loads (SVLs) and are used in a regularized Bayesian framework to generate full-field response estimates and confidence intervals. The reconstruction framework is applicable to the estimation of single data records and power spectral densities from multiple records. Reconstruction is successfully performed in configurations where the number of SVLs to identify is less than, equal to, and greater than the number of sensors used for reconstruction. In a simulation featuring a seismically excited shear structure, SVL reconstruction significantly outperforms modal FRF-based reconstruction and successfully estimates full-field responses with as few as two uniaxial accelerometers. SVL reconstruction is further verified in a simulation featuring an acoustically excited cylinder. Finally, response reconstruction and uncertainty quantification are performed on an experimental structure with three shaker inputs and 27 triaxial accelerometer outputs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Deep Learning-Driven Sampling Technique to Explore the Phase Space of an RNA Stem-Loop

The folding and unfolding of RNA stem-loops are critical biological processes; however, their computational studies are often hampered by the ruggedness of their folding landscape, necessitating long simulation times at the atomistic scale. Here, we adapted DeepDriveMD (DDMD), an advanced deep learning-driven sampling technique originally developed for protein folding, to address the challenges of RNA stem-loop folding. Although tempering- and order parameter-based techniques are commonly used for similar rare-event problems, the computational costs or the need for a priori knowledge about the system often present a challenge in their effective use. DDMD overcomes these challenges by adaptively learning from an ensemble of running MD simulations using generic contact maps as the raw input. DeepDriveMD enables on-the-fly learning of a low-dimensional latent representation and guides the simulation toward the undersampled regions while optimizing the resources to explore the relevant parts of the phase space. We showed that DDMD estimates the free energy landscape of the RNA stem-loop reasonably well at room temperature. Our simulation framework runs at a constant temperature without external biasing potential, hence preserving the information on transition rates, with a computational cost much lower than that of the simulations performed with external biasing potentials. Here, we also introduced a reweighting strategy for obtaining unbiased free energy surfaces and presented a qualitative analysis of the latent space. This analysis showed that the latent space captures the relevant slow degrees of freedom for the RNA folding problem of interest. Finally, throughout the manuscript, we outlined how different parameters are selected and optimized to adapt DDMD for this system. We believe this compendium of decision-making processes will help new users adapt this technique for the rare-event sampling problems of their interest.

Gupta, Ayush↗

Barometric Pumping Through Fractured Rock: A Mechanism for Venting Deep Methane to Mars' Atmosphere

Abstract Both the source of methane on Mars and the mechanism for transmission from the subsurface to the atmosphere are not fully understood. Previous seepage simulations have invoked relatively shallow subsurface sources to explain observed methane signatures on Mars. We propose that barometric‐pressure pumping through fracture networks could be an effective mechanism for methane transport from the deep subsurface on Mars. Using atmospheric pressure data gathered by Curiosity as input, we simulate methane gas transport from depths of 200 m to the surface. Even with such a deep source, our model reproduces the observed seasonality of methane, and the simulated surface methane fluxes fall within the range of previous estimates derived from atmospheric observations. Because 200 m is the likely minimum hospitable depth for living methanogenic microbes, our fracture network model indirectly reinvigorates the possibility of a microbial source of methane on Mars.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measurement of anti- 3 He nuclei absorption in matter and impact on their propagation in the Galaxy

In our Galaxy, light antinuclei composed of antiprotons and antineutrons can be produced through high-energy cosmic-ray collisions with the interstellar medium or could also originate from the annihilation of dark-matter particles that have not yet been discovered. On Earth, the only way to produce and study antinuclei with high precision is to create them at high-energy particle accelerators. Although the properties of elementary antiparticles have been studied in detail, the knowledge of the interaction of light antinuclei with matter is limited. We determine the disappearance probability of 3 $\overline{He}$ when it encounters matter particles and annihilates or disintegrates within the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. We extract the inelastic interaction cross section, which is then used as an input to the calculations of the transparency of our Galaxy to the propagation of 3 $\overline{He}$ stemming from dark-matter annihilation and cosmic-ray interactions within the interstellar medium. For a specific dark-matter profile, we estimate a transparency of about 50%, whereas it varies with increasing 3 $\overline{He}$ momentum from 25% to 90% for cosmic-ray sources. The results indicate that 3 $\overline{He}$ nuclei can travel long distances in the Galaxy, and can be used to study cosmic-ray interactions and dark-matter annihilation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global terrestrial nitrogen fixation and its modification by agriculture

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of new nitrogen (N) that supports terrestrial productivity, yet estimates of global terrestrial BNF remain highly uncertain. Here, in this study, we show that this uncertainty is partly because of sampling bias, as field BNF measurements in natural terrestrial ecosystems occur where N fixers are 17 times more prevalent than their mean abundances worldwide. To correct this bias, we develop new estimates of global terrestrial BNF by upscaling field BNF measurements using spatially explicit abundances of all major biogeochemical N-fixing niches. We find that natural biomes sustain lower BNF, 65 (52–77) Tg N yr −1 , than previous empirical bottom-up estimates, with most BNF occurring in tropical forests and drylands. We also find high agricultural BNF in croplands and cultivated pastures, 56 (54–58) Tg N yr −1 . Agricultural BNF has increased terrestrial BNF by 64% and total terrestrial N inputs from all sources by 60% over pre-industrial levels. Our results indicate that BNF may impose stronger constraints on the carbon sink in natural terrestrial biomes and represent a larger source of agricultural N than is generally considered in analyses of the global N cycle, with implications for proposed safe operating limits for N use.

Reis Ely, Carla R. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis,↗

Discovering Active Subspaces for High-Dimensional Computer Models

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. While sensible in some settings, this approach has obvious drawbacks. Recent research has demonstrated that active subspace calculations can be obtained in closed form, conditional on a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate, which can be limiting in high-dimensional settings for computational reasons. In this paper, we produce the relevant calculations for a more general case when the model of interest is a linear combination of tensor products. These general equations can be applied to the GP, recovering previous results as a special case, or applied to the models constructed by other regression techniques including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Furthermore, using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. In one real-world example, we obtain the active subspace of a radiation-transport code with 240 inputs and 9,372 model runs in under half an hour.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SILIA: software implementation of a multi-channel, multi-frequency lock-in amplifier for spectroscopy and imaging applications

In this work, we describe a software implementation of a multi-channel, multi-frequency Lock-in Amplifier (SILIA) to extract modulated signals from noisy data distributed over multiple channels of arbitrary number and size. This software implementation emulates the functionality of a multi-channel, multi-frequency lock-in amplifier in a post-processing step following data acquisition. Unlike most traditional lock-in amplifiers, SILIA can work with any number of input channels and is especially useful to analyze data distributed over many channels. We demonstrate the versatility and performance for extracting weak signals in spectroscopy and fluorescence microscopy. We also discuss more general applications and exhibit a method to automatically estimate error from a lock-in result.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dynamic concurrent learning method to neutralize cyber attacks and faults for industrial asset monitoring nodes

Input signals may be received from monitoring nodes of the industrial asset, each input signal comprising time series data representing current operation. A neutralization engine may transform the input signals into feature vectors in feature space, each feature vector being associated with one of a plurality of overlapping batches of received input signals. A dynamic decision boundary may be generated based on the set of feature vectors, and an abnormal state of the asset may be detected based on the set of feature vectors and a predetermined static decision boundary. An estimated neutralized value for each abnormal feature value may be calculated based on the dynamic decision boundary and the static decision boundary such that a future set of feature vectors will be moved with respect to the static decision boundary. An inverse transform of each estimated neutralized value may be performed to generate neutralized signals comprising time series data that are output.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The design of a photoionization front experiment using the Z-Machine as a driving source and estimated measurements

Radiation-driven heat fronts are present in the early universe during reionization, the circumstellar medium of supernovae, and in high-energy-density physics experiments. Dedicated experiments to observe and diagnose the behavior of these types of heat fronts can improve our understanding of these phenomena. A simulation study of photoionization fronts using the HELIOS-CR radiation hydrodynamics code provides an experimental design for the Z-Machine at Sandia National Laboratory using a measurement-calibrated input radiation flux to drive the photoionization front. The simulations use detailed atomic physics and non-diffusive radiation transport in 1D to determine an optimal gas pressure of 0.75 atm for an experiment in N gas as well as the effects of increasing the thickness of the window that seals the gas cell. Post-processing of these simulations demonstrates that ratios of atomic rate coefficients place the heat front in a physics regime where photoionization dominates the energy deposition. Here, to see the sensitivity of the simulations to changes in the model and spatial grid, this analysis performed resolution, atomic model detail, and radiation transport angular grid studies showing less than 10% deviation from the nominal model for increased complexity, when possible. An effort to emulate 3D geometric effects on the radiation flux using an artificial attenuation scheme has shown that, even for conservative estimates of the flux, simulations still produce a photoionization front. Estimations of a streaked, visible spectroscopy measurement using SPECT3D showed that line emission measurements are present early in time and that later in time thermal emission should become dominant.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in occupant exposure to an indoor airborne contaminant with an uncertain source location

Well-mixed zone models are often employed to compute indoor air quality and occupant exposures. While effective, a potential downside to assuming instantaneous, perfect mixing is underpredicting exposures to high intermittent concentrations within a room. When such cases are of concern, more spatially resolved models, like computational-fluid dynamics methods, are used for some or all of the zones. But, these models have higher computational costs and require more input information. A preferred compromise would be to continue with a multi-zone modeling approach for all rooms, but with a better assessment of the spatial variability within a room. Here to do so, we present a quantitative method for estimating a room's spatiotemporal variability, based on influential room parameters. Our proposed method disaggregates variability into the variability in a room's average concentration, and the spatial variability within the room relative to that average. This enables a detailed assessment of how variability in particular room parameters impacts the uncertain occupant exposures. To demonstrate the utility of this method, we simulate contaminant dispersion for a variety of possible source locations. We compute breathing-zone exposure during the releasing (source is active) and decaying (source is removed) periods. Using CFD methods, we found after a 30 minutes release the average standard deviation in the spatial distribution of exposure was approximately 28% of the source average exposure, whereas variability in the different average exposures was lower, only 10% of the total average. We also find that although uncertainty in the source location leads to variability in the average magnitude of transient exposure, it does not have a particularly large influence on the spatial distribution during the decaying period, or on the average contaminant removal rate. By systematically characterizing a room's average concentration, its variability, and the spatial variability within the room important insights can be gained as to how much uncertainty is introduced into occupant exposure predictions by assuming a uniform in-room contaminant concentration. We discuss how the results of these characterizations can improve our understanding of the uncertainty in occupant exposures relative to well-mixed models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Generalization error guaranteed auto-encoder-based nonlinear model reduction for operator learning

Many physical processes in science and engineering are naturally represented by operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces. The problem of operator learning, in this context, seeks to extract these physical processes from empirical data, which is challenging due to the infinite or high dimensionality of data. An integral component in addressing this challenge is model reduction, which reduces both the data dimensionality and problem size. In this paper, we utilize low-dimensional nonlinear structures in model reduction by investigating Auto-Encoder-based Neural Network (AENet). AENet first learns the latent variables of the input data and then learns the transformation from these latent variables to corresponding output data. Our numerical experiments validate the ability of AENet to accurately learn the solution operator of nonlinear partial differential equations. Furthermore, we establish a mathematical and statistical estimation theory that analyzes the generalization error of AENet. Finally, our theoretical framework shows that the sample complexity of training AENet is intricately tied to the intrinsic dimension of the modeled process, while also demonstrating the robustness of AENet to noise.

Auto-encoder↗

Automated extraction of interfacial dislocations and disconnections from atomistic data

Here we introduce Interfacial Line Defect Analysis (ILDA), a method for identifying and extracting interfacial dislocations and disconnections with little-to-no input from the user on the nature of the interface. By simply providing the orientations and coherency strains for the crystals in a coherent reference state of the interface, ILDA provides exact Burgers vectors. Alternatively, these orientations and strains can be estimated using local atomic deformation gradients, making ILDA fully automated and providing estimated Burgers vectors. ILDA also determines the step height associated with each defect line segment, in case the associated defect is a disconnection. The heart of the method is the identification of atoms residing at co-incidence sites between the two crystals and the construction of a surface mesh connecting these sites that is used to compose Burgers circuits and insert defect line segments. We demonstrate the performance of ILDA in two test cases: a twist grain boundary and a phase boundary.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Total cost of ownership of vehicle electrification and fuel switching options for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles

Projecting the transition from combustion engines to battery-based powertrains is complex becuase it involves numerous interdependent decisions. This study estimates total cost of ownership (TCO) to assess the economic viability of powertrain electrification, focusing exclusively on advances in vehicle and fuel technologies. Under two bounding technology-progress scenarios, we develop vehicle designs and fuel cost trajectories, which serve as inputs to TCO projections for selected classes from 2021 to 2050. We analyzed a small sport utility vehicle (SUV) to represent the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, and four medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) classes: Class 6 box delivery, Class 8 drayage, Class 8 long-haul, and Class 8 transit bus. For each class, we compared the TCO of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEVs) against conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The results show that modern ICEVs generally have lower TCO; however, BEVs and FCHEVs could match or have lower TCOs than ICEVs over time, depending on technological progress. In LDVs, BEV300 is projected to deliver the lowest TCO by 2050, particularly under the high-progress scenario. In MHDVs, both BEVs and FCHEVs could become more cost-competitive than ICEVs by 2050 in the high-progress case. Beyond these results, the findings suggest further investigation is warranted for BEV charging infrastructure, FCHEV hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and MHDV charging strategies. In conclusion, these factors could reduce the fuel-cost share of TCO and enhance the competitiveness of BEVs and FCHEVs relative to ICEVs.

Battery electric vehicle↗

Conversion of Site-Specific Meteorological Data for use in CAP-88 PC

CAP-88 PC is a commonly used radiological atmospheric dispersion model. This US EPA-approved model is used to demonstrate compliance with atmospheric emission regulations for radionuclides. While the model includes a large library of meteorological data for use across the United States, there are applications when users may wish to use onsite meteorological data as an input to the CAP-88 PC model. Here, in this work, we present a work-around process for preparing and converting onsite data for use in CAP-88 PC. However, the use of local data should provide a more realistic estimate of doses to members of the public in the immediate vicinity of a facility, although the regulatory agency having jurisdiction may not accept the use of local data for compliance. Additionally, the historical meteorological records from 20+ years ago (at a site many kilometers away) might not be representative of current local weather patterns, highlighting another benefit of using local meteorological data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimization-Based Model Reduction Scheme for Renewable Energy Power Plants Using Standardized Testing Scenarios

This paper presents an optimization-based model reduction scheme for renewable energy (RE) power plants consisting of inverter-based resources (IBRs) operating in grid-following (GFL) or grid-forming (GFM) modes. More importantly, the datasets feeding the optimization-based model reduction scheme are generated and re-used through the standardized grid-interactive testing scenarios. Particularly, the proposed scheme makes use of the power plant point of common coupling (PCC) measurements of various quantities specified by standardized tests (e.g., voltage and frequency ride through) as per IEEE 2800, to estimate the parameters of the reduced-order model such that its dynamic performance aligns with the original detailed power plant model. The proposed model reduction approach does not require the parameters of individual IBRs and using standardized test data as input to the formulated optimization problem simplifies the reduced-order modelling scheme. Extensive case studies following standardized test scenarios verified the remarkable accuracy of the proposed approach.

Yallamilli, Ram S. [Purdue University]↗