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NASA NTRS1998

Mapping the Distribution of Wildfire Fuels Using AVIRIS in the Santa Monica Mountains

Catastrophic wildfires, such as the 1990 Painted Cave Fire in Santa Barbara or Oakland fire of 1991, attest to the destructive potential of fire in the wildland/urban interface. For example, during the Painted Cave Fire, 673 structures were consumed over a period of only six hours at an estimated cost of 250 million dollars (Gomes et al., 1993). One of the primary sources of fuels is chaparral, which consists of plant species that are adapted to frequent fires and may actually promote its ignition and spread of through volatile organic compounds in foliage. As one of the most widely distributed plant communities in Southern California, and one of the most common vegetation types along the wildland urban interface, chaparral represents one of the greatest sources of wildfire hazard in the region. An ongoing NASA funded research project was initiated in 1994 to study the potential of AVIRIS for mapping wildfire fuel properties in Southern California chaparral. The project was initiated in the Santa Monica Mountains, an east-west trending range in western Los Angeles County that has experienced extremely high fire frequencies over the past 70 years. The Santa Monica Mountains were selected because they exemplify many of the problems facing the southwest, forming a complex mosaic of land ownership intermixed with a diversity of chaparral age classes and fuel loads. Furthermore, the area has a wide diversity of chaparral community types and a rich background in supporting geographic information including fire history, soils and topography. Recent fires in the Santa Monica Mountains, including several in 1993 and the Calabasas fire of 1996 attest to the active fire regime present in the area. The long term objectives of this project are to improve existing maps of wildland fuel properties in the area, link AVIRIS derived products to fuel models under development for the region, then predict fire hazard through models that simulate fire spread. In this paper, we describe the AVIRIS derived products we are developing to map wildland fuels.

Roberts, Dar↗

NASA NTRS2003

Collectives for Multiple Resource Job Scheduling Across Heterogeneous Servers

Efficient management of large-scale, distributed data storage and processing systems is a major challenge for many computational applications. Many of these systems are characterized by multi-resource tasks processed across a heterogeneous network. Conventional approaches, such as load balancing, work well for centralized, single resource problems, but breakdown in the more general case. In addition, most approaches are often based on heuristics which do not directly attempt to optimize the world utility. In this paper, we propose an agent based control system using the theory of collectives. We configure the servers of our network with agents who make local job scheduling decisions. These decisions are based on local goals which are constructed to be aligned with the objective of optimizing the overall efficiency of the system. We demonstrate that multi-agent systems in which all the agents attempt to optimize the same global utility function (team game) only marginally outperform conventional load balancing. On the other hand, agents configured using collectives outperform both team games and load balancing (by up to four times for the latter), despite their distributed nature and their limited access to information.

Tumer, K.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Electrical Resistance of Ceramic Matrix Composites for Damage Detection and Life-Prediction

Smith, Craig↗

NASA NTRS2008

Monitoring Damage Accumulation in Ceramic Matrix Composites Using Electrical Resistivity

The electric resistance of woven SiC fiber reinforced SiC matrix composites were measured under tensile loading conditions. The results show that the electrical resistance is closely related to damage and that real-time information about the damage state can be obtained through monitoring of the resistance. Such self-sensing capability provides the possibility of on-board/in-situ damage detection and accurate life prediction for high-temperature ceramic matrix composites. Woven silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide (SiC/SiC) ceramic matrix composites (CMC) possess unique properties such as high thermal conductivity, excellent creep resistance, improved toughness, and good environmental stability (oxidation resistance), making them particularly suitable for hot structure applications. In specific, CMCs could be applied to hot section components of gas turbines [1], aerojet engines [2], thermal protection systems [3], and hot control surfaces [4]. The benefits of implementing these materials include reduced cooling air requirements, lower weight, simpler component design, longer service life, and higher thrust [5]. It has been identified in NASA High Speed Research (HSR) program that the SiC/SiC CMC has the most promise for high temperature, high oxidation applications [6]. One of the critical issues in the successful application of CMCs is on-board or insitu assessment of the damage state and an accurate prediction of the remaining service life of a particular component. This is of great concern, since most CMC components envisioned for aerospace applications will be exposed to harsh environments and play a key role in the vehicle s safety. On-line health monitoring can enable prediction of remaining life; thus resulting in improved safety and reliability of structural components. Monitoring can also allow for appropriate corrections to be made in real time, therefore leading to the prevention of catastrophic failures. Most conventional nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques such as ultrasonic C-scan, x-ray, thermography, and eddy current are limited since they require structural components of complex geometry to be taken out of service for a substantial length of time for post-damage inspection and assessment. Furthermore, the typical NDE techniques are useful for identifying large interlaminar flaws, but insensitive to CMC materials flaws developed perpendicular to the surface under tensile creep conditions. There are techniques such as piezoelectric sensor [7,8], and optical fiber [9,10] that could be used for on-line health monitoring of CMC structures. However, these systems involve attaching an external sensor or putting special fibers in CMC composites, which would be problematic at high temperature applications.

Smith, Craig E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

In Situ High Energy X-ray Diffraction Characterization of Phase Transformations and Mechanical Behaviors in Rapidly Solidified Titanium and Stainless Steel Alloys [Thesis]

Advanced manufacturing techniques like additive manufacturing (AM) have poised themselves to revolutionize metal manufacturing. A wide range of AM techniques are capable of manufacturing metal components with unique, complex geometries and hastening the scientific-engineering-development cycle. Metal AM relies on a layer-by-layer rapid manufacturing process to build components from the substrate up. Rapid solidification is a large departure from traditional metal manufacturing due to its complex physics. Characterization of rapid solidification is difficult, stemming from the small volumes used in AM and the fast dynamics of the process. High energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) is a solution to the characterization problems of rapidly solidified alloys and AM. HEXRD can probe small volumes at fast rates and provides a wide range of thermomechanical and kinetic information. This thesis presents the application of HEXRD to rapidly solidified titanium and stainless steel alloys through a series of case studies. In the first two studies, HEXRD is applied to rapidly solidified titanium and stainless steel welds. The materials are characterized for their temperature history, phase changes, kinetics, and microstructural evolution. In the next case study, HEXRD is applied to characterize phase changes in elastocaloric NiTi shape memory alloys (SMAs) under thermomechanical load. HEXRD, in conjunction with other tools, is used to explain the superior performance of the additively manufactured SMAs. In the final two case studies, HEXRD is used to measure the mechanical response of AM parts with complex geometries; namely, the octet truss lattice. Diffraction reveals a wide range of materials information about the AM microstructure including unexpected phases, texture, and mechanical response to loading. The mechanical results from HEXRD and then compared with theoretical predictions about the performance of octet truss lattices. Summarily, HEXRD is a diverse tool that is poised to address the complex characterization problems of many aspects of the additive manufacturing process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extended Low Load Boiler Operation to Improve Performance and Economics of an Existing Coal Fired Power Plant (Final Report)

The overall goal is to improve the performance and economics of existing coal fired power plants by extending low load boiler operation to lower loads than is currently achievable. The objective of this program is to develop and validate sensor hardware and analytical algorithms to lower plant operating expenses (OPEX) for the currently operating pulverized coal utility boiler fleet. Coal fired utility boilers are increasingly under grid dispatch pressure. In some cases, the coal fired cost of generation is noncompetitive with respect to natural gas generation and subsidized renewable sources. To remain profitable and remain fully compliant with existing environmental regulations, the installed coal fired fleet must find technologies which allow it to move into a more flexible cyclic load dispatch model. Today the installed coal fired utility fleet must be cost of generation competitive, fully emissions compliant, and responsive to the variability inherent in renewable energy generation sources. In the Phase I of the project, GE Steam Power, Inc. (GE) performed modeling of different operating scenarios for low load operation using an existing full plant dynamic model developed for a 660MW steam power plant. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable a stable and steady coal supply for low load pulverizer operation were identified and tested at the Pulverizer Development Facility (PDF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center in Bloomfield, Connecticut. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable stable combustion for low load operation were identified and tested at the 15 MWth Industrial Scale Burner facility (ISBF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center. A concept was developed to test the sensors and control algorithms, down selected after testing, at a full-scale coal fired power plant. A budget estimate was then developed, and the concept was implemented at an existing utility power plant. The specific objectives of the experimental work were to: • Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for monitoring coal pulverizer operation at lower loads to provide stable operation and appropriate coal fineness at lower coal throughput; Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for a Boiler Flame Stability Monitor to better balance air and fuel at each burner. This enables a reduction in a coal boiler’s safe low load power level while maintaining stable flame characteristics; Develop a concept in Phase I for low load operation of a full-scale power plant and develop a budget estimate for testing and execute the test plan at an existing plant in Phase II; Validate the capability of the extended low load boiler system to extend the minimum load operating point in a safe and reliable manner on an existing full-scale utility boiler. At the completion of this experimental study, GE has developed a set of sensors and analytic algorithms, down selected after testing, that have the potential to enable safe low load operation of a utility boiler. GE has also identified a host site for testing these identified sensors and analytic algorithms. GE has generated a full set of deliverables that provide sufficient information to proceed with the next step of testing at a host site. This includes a potential host site and budget estimate for concept testing at host site. In the Phase II of the project, a series of field tests were completed to validate the extended low load boiler operation, which consisted of detailed engineering, installation, commissioning, and testing the additional sensors and analytics for the coal-fired combustion system on an existing full-scale utility boiler. The optimization work has been supported by the host plant and endorsed by their engineering and operation staff.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Evolution of Lidar Networks: A US Perspective

Atmospheric aerosols and clouds play an important role in climate by directly scattering and absorbing sunlight. Aerosol-cloud interactions modify the particle properties causing indirect effects, alter aerosol deposition and rainfall, and contribute substantially to the uncertainties in predicting climate effects. Aerosols also affect air quality and both constituents modulate boundary layer dynamics to a certain extent, in turn impacting aerosol transport and aerosol-cloud interactions. The spatiotemporal distribution of aerosol and cloud layers is thus important, and lidar remains the primary instrument for determining the vertical distribution of aerosols and thin clouds. Lidar still provides important information for opaque cloud layers by determining base heights. Combined lidar and radar data provide a comprehensive coverage of aerosol and cloud vertical distributions, and thus locations where and when they interact. Lidar data provide a means of constraining column aerosol loading observations (e.g. AOD) to vertical extents. In addition, lidar has proven effective at determining a proxy for boundary layer height by examining aerosol gradients and/or cloud base heights in lidar profiles. Polarized lidars provide additional information on particle shape, allowing estimates of cloud phase and separation of dust or smoke from sulfate and sea salt aerosols. Given the importance of lidar observations and a critical maturation in technology and retrieval techniques, several organizations began to build operational lidar networks around 2000. The European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) was started as a research focused network of advanced lidars across Europe. The Asian Dust Lidar Network (ADNET) was also developed as a regional network providing lidar profiles of dust and pollution across Eastern Asia. In the US, the NASA Micro Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) was created to provide global lidar profiling at key sites in the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) pre-dates these networks and many sites have lidar, but it is not strictly a lidar network and at the time focused less on the lower troposphere. Finally, there were already existing ceilometer networks operated by various meteorological agencies, but in particular here in the US the profile data has not been available. The ceilometer networks were used to provide only clouds base heights and estimates of PBL height. Thus, the distinguishing feature between lidar and ceilometer networks was historically the ability to actually provide profile information (in addition to differences in wavelength, and advanced retrievals such as the raman technique). As time progressed, each lidar network matured and developed more operational capabilities and data sets, coupled with viable data centers providing DAAC services and access to near-real-time (NRT) data. In 2008 under WMO guidance, the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Aerosol Lidar Observation Network (GALION) was formed as a global network made up of the existing lidar networks. The goal was to share information, best practices, and develop frameworks and techniques for quality data. GALION grew to include several other regional lidar networks and this has led to a vast increase in quality lidar sites worldwide.

Welton, Ellsworth J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Norton-Thevenin Receptance Coupling (NTRC) as a Payload Analysis Tool

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has funded a study of a new method formulated by NASA Engineers called Norton-Thevenin Receptance Coupling (NTRC) to perform coupled loads analysis (CLA). The problem that NTRC attempts to solve is the dependency of the payload organization to high CLA costs, long schedules, lack of standard capabilities to evaluate multiple configurations and unavailability of loads when needed. NTRC solves the problem by providing a tool that payload developers can use to obtain loads at a fraction of the cost of a CLA at any time that it is required. While NTRC is not intended to replace the formal load cycles performed by the launch vehicle (LV) provider, it will provide the ability to reduce the conservatism in defining preliminary design loads, assess the impact of design changes between formal load cycles, perform trade studies and perform parametric loads analysis where many different design configurations can be evaluated with a minimum amount of data required from the LV provider. NTRC condenses all the necessary information into the launch vehicle to payload/s connection points or boundary degrees of freedom (BD). The launch vehicle model is represented by its impedance at its BDs; its forcing functions are represented by the acceleration at those BDs when the payload is absent and the latter is represented by its impedance at the same BDs. Payload responses are represented by transfer functions of selected response to interface BDs. The methodology has contributed to the Loads and Dynamics discipline advancement and successfully passed Peer Reviews. NTRC is exact in the frequency domain. Time domain replication and accuracy is outstanding. A second phase is envisioned to benchmark the whole set of CLA events for the Agency's most utilized Launch Vehicles, and ready it for operational deployment at NASA.

Kaufman, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2017

Advanced Characterisation of Aerosol Size Properties from Measurements of Spectral Optical Depth Using the GRASP Algorithm

This study evaluates the potential of using aerosol optical depth (τ (sub a)) measurements to characterise the microphysical and optical properties of atmospheric aerosols. With this aim, we used the recently developed GRASP (Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties) code for numerical testing of six different aerosol models with different aerosol loads. The direct numerical simulations (self-consistency tests) indicate that the GRASP-AOD retrieval provides modal aerosol optical depths (fine and coarse) to within 0.01 of the input values. The retrieval of the fine-mode radius, width and volume concentration are stable and precise if the real part of the refractive index is known. The coarse-mode properties are less accurate, but they are significantly improved when additional a priori information is available. The tests with random simulated errors show that the uncertainty in the bimodal log-normal size distribution parameters increases as the aerosol load decreases. Similarly, the reduction in the spectral range diminishes the stability of the retrieved parameters. In addition to these numerical studies, we used optical depth observations at eight AERONET locations to validate our results with the standard AERONET inversion products. We found that bimodal log-normal size distributions serve as useful input assumptions, especially when the measurements have inadequate spectral coverage and/or limited accuracy, such as moon photometry. Comparisons of the mode median radii between GRASP-AOD and AERONET indicate average differences of 0.013µm for the fine mode and typical values of 0.2–0.3µm for the coarse mode. The dominant mode (i.e. fine or coarse) indicates a 10 % difference in mode radii between the GRASP-AOD and AERONET inversions, and the average of the difference in volume concentration is around 17 % for both modes. The retrieved values of the fine-mode τ(sub a)(500) using GRASP-AOD are generally between those values obtained by the standard AERONET inversion and the values obtained by the AERONET spectral deconvolution algorithm (SDA), with differences typically lower than 0.02 between GRASP-AOD and both algorithms. Finally, we present some examples of application of GRASP-AOD inversion using moon photometry and the airborne PLASMA sun photometer during the ChArMEx summer 2013 campaign in the western Mediterranean.

Torres, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model estimates of dissolved organic carbon, runoff, snowmelt, and snow water equivalent from 1981-2010 across the western Arctic

This dataset contains estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yield (mg C m-2), runoff (mm day-1), snow water equivalent (SWE, mm day-1), and snowmelt (mm day-1) from a simulation of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). The simulation effectively quantifies snowpack accumulation and melt, runoff, and DOC leaching, and broadly capture the seasonal cycle in DOC concentration and mass loadings. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) were used for meteorological forcings. The model outputs are organized by grid and day of the month in gzipped ASCII text files contained within each archived ZIP file. No special software is required to work with these data. The basin and domain information files are also ASCII text. The gridded estimates are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and leachate DOC concentrations and loadings across parts of the western Arctic. A manuscript describing the data and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences (Rawlins et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Migration and generation of contaminants from launch through recovery: LDEF case history

The migration of contaminants to and between Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) surfaces reveals new information relevant to all future space missions. The surface of the LDEF satellite closely paralleled over seven meters of the shuttle during one launch and one reentry. Transfer of contaminants from the shuttle bay to the payload were documented and partially quantified for both the launch and recovery separately. LDEF carried a load of volatile silicones and hydrocarbons into orbit which were then polymerized by UV radiation into tough, dark brown stains on exposed surfaces. The distribution of these stains is providing new information on deposition mechanisms that should be studied on future missions. Electrostatic effects, diffusional flow, and effects due to small surface temperature differences at the time of UV exposure are suggested. The types of functional groups present in the LDEF deposit it nearly identical to stains recovered from other spacecraft. These stains were remarkably stable in low Earth orbit even with atomic oxygen exposure if the amount of silicones present was sufficient to create a sealing layer of silicon dioxide over the dark brown stain beneath.

Crutcher, E. Russ↗

NASA NTRS1988

Structural identification and damage assessment of large space structures

Two different methods are proposed for identifying the structural properties of large orbiting space structures under ordinary service loads, and for assessing potential damage due to impact or other extreme loadings. It is shown that the behavior of a structure in a weightless environment is nonlinear due to unloaded or lightly loaded connections, an effect which not only complicates structural control, but makes the problem of system identification more difficult than for ground based systems. Both proposed methods assume that the structure is subjected to loads imposed by prescribed self stressing systems sufficient to produce repeatable internal force systems in the structure. The first method is based on statical response and requires a survey of structural displacements produced by the self stressing systems. The displacements do not have to be determined completely (i.e., in three directions at each connection), but more displacement information produces more accurate structural stiffness information. It is anticipated that displacement measurements will be taken using on-board laser measurement devices. The second technique employs dynamic stress wave measurement techniques using on-board loading devices and strain gages to track stress wave propagation through the space structure. This approach, which is in its early stages of development, relies on an analysis of transit times of impulsive stress waves and changes in transit times and wave forms due to changes in structural parameters.

Nelson, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Load Balancing Strategies for Multi-Block Overset Grid Applications

The multi-block overset grid method is a powerful technique for high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations about complex aerospace configurations. The solution process uses a grid system that discretizes the problem domain by using separately generated but overlapping structured grids that periodically update and exchange boundary information through interpolation. For efficient high performance computations of large-scale realistic applications using this methodology, the individual grids must be properly partitioned among the parallel processors. Overall performance, therefore, largely depends on the quality of load balancing. In this paper, we present three different load balancing strategies far overset grids and analyze their effects on the parallel efficiency of a Navier-Stokes CFD application running on an SGI Origin2000 machine.

Djomehri, M. Jahed↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fabrication of porous transport electrodes: Development of quantitative approach for quality control

This work focuses on porous transport electrodes (PTEs), which integrate the anodic catalyst with the adjacent Ti porous transport layer (PTL). Challenges in catalyst deposition on PTLs, particularly at low loadings, motivated this study to evaluate various fabrication methods and characterization approaches. This work investigated Pt-treated PTLs coated with Ir-based catalysts using several common methods, including airbrush coating, rod coating, ultrasonic spray coating, electrodeposition, and sputter deposition, with catalyst loadings ranging from 2.9 to 0.1 mg/cm 2 , providing the opportunity for comparisons across a large set of samples produced by different methods. Two widely accessible characterization techniques: X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and scanning electron microscopy energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) were explored. Initial evaluation of selected samples with XCT provided qualitative insights into catalyst distribution, however comprehensive quantitative analysis was limited. SEM-EDS enabled detailed information on the catalyst distribution both qualitatively and quantitatively using two metrics. Atomic and surface area % ratios of Pt:Ir and Ti:Ir revealed trends in catalyst loading and losses into the PTL pores, as well as evaluating the homogeneity of catalyst coatings. The analysis demonstrated that ultrasonic spray coating, electrodeposition, and sputter coating produced the most homogeneous coatings, with minimal catalyst losses observed for electrodeposition and sputter coating. By adapting common techniques with novel, standardized methodologies, this work establishes a universally applicable framework for cross-study comparison of PTEs. The SEM-EDS approach provides a practical, accessible tool for PTE characterization and contributes a reference dataset supporting both research development and rapid quality control.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1997

Ultrasonic Studies of Composites Undergoing Thermal and Fatigue Loading

New composite materials possess attractive properties for use in advanced aircraft. A necessary requirement for their introduction into aeronautic use is an accurate understanding of their long term aging processes so that proper design criteria can be established. In order to understand those properties, these composites must be exposed to thermal and load cycles that are characteristic of flight conditions. Additionally, airline companies will require nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods that can be used in the field to assess the condition of these new materials as they age. As part of an effort to obtain the required information about new composites for aviation use, we are performing ultrasonic measurements both in the NDE laboratory and in the materials testing laboratory at NASA. The materials testing laboratory is equipped with environmental chambers mounted on load frames so that composite samples can be exposed to thermal and loading cycles representative of flight protocols. Applying both temperature and load simultaneously will help to highlight temperature and load interactions during the aging of these composite materials. This study reports on our initial ultrasonic attenuation results from thermoset and thermoplastic composite samples. Ultrasonic attenuation measurements have been used reliably to assess the effects of material degradation. For example, recently, researchers have shown that by using frequencies of ultrasound on the order of 24 MHz, they could obtain adequate contrast in the evaluation of thermal degradation in these composites. This paper will present data that shows results at a lower frequency range. In addition, we report results on the frequency dependence of attenuation as the slope of attenuation with respect to frequency, beta = delta alpha (f) / delta f. The slope of attenuation is an attractive parameter since it is quantitative, yet does not require interface corrections like conventional quantitative attenuation measurements. This is a consequence of the assumption that interface correction terms are frequently independent. Uncertainty in those corrections terms compromises the value of conventional quantitative attenuation data.

Madaras, Eric I.↗

DOE OSTI2026

U-net architected deep material network training with microstructure local field information

The Deep Material Network (DMN) has recently emerged as a powerful reduced-order modeling framework for simulating the mechanical response of heterogeneous materials such as composites. Unlike most data-driven approaches that directly learn a material’s response under prescribed loading, the DMN acts as a homogenization operator, learning the kinematic constraints and mechanical interactions of the underlying microstructure. However, traditional DMN training relies exclusively on homogenized effective properties derived from Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS), discarding the rich local field data that govern microstructural interactions. In this work, we extend the DMN framework to incorporate such local field information into the offline training process. Utilizing a U-Net architecture, we augment the DMN training objective to include the first and second statistical moments of the local stress fields obtained from linear DNS. This ensures that the learned network topology not only fits the effective stiffness but also accurately reflects the internal local stress and strain partitioning of the microstructure. The results confirm that supervising the localization process during training yields a superior surrogate model, reducing local prediction errors by an order of magnitude and significantly improving generalization to unseen nonlinear constitutive behaviors compared to traditional DMNs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1977

Space shuttle orbiter digital data processing system timing sensitivity analysis OFT ascent phase

Dynamic loads were investigated to provide simulation and analysis of the space shuttle orbiter digital data processing system (DDPS). Segments of the ascent test (OFT) configuration were modeled utilizing the information management system interpretive model (IMSIM) in a computerized simulation modeling of the OFT hardware and software workload. System requirements for simulation of the OFT configuration were defined, and sensitivity analyses determined areas of potential data flow problems in DDPS operation. Based on the defined system requirements and these sensitivity analyses, a test design was developed for adapting, parameterizing, and executing IMSIM, using varying load and stress conditions for model execution. Analyses of the computer simulation runs are documented, including results, conclusions, and recommendations for DDPS improvements.

Lagas, J. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Plentiful electricity turns wholesale prices negative

In 2020, average wholesale electricity prices in the United States fell to $21/MWh, their lowest level since the beginning of the 21st century. Low natural gas prices and the proliferation of low marginal cost resources like wind and solar had already established a trend toward lower wholesale prices, and this trend was exacerbated by declining electricity demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Negative real-time hourly wholesale prices occurred in about 4% of all hours and wholesale market nodes across the United States, but these were not distributed evenly. Regional clusters emerged, for example, in the Permian Basin in western Texas, and in Kansas and western Oklahoma in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), negative prices accounted for more than 25% of all hours. Negative electricity prices result either from local congestion of the transmission system leading supply to exceed demand locally or due to system-wide oversupply. Looking at the latter condition in SPP, we find that all major generator types contribute to this excess supply, because of limited ramping flexibility or self-scheduled out-of-market unit commitments. Additional monetary production incentives such as renewable energy credits or tax credits also enable negative bids; indeed, negative prices predominantly occur when demand levels are low and wind production levels are high. Frequent negative prices can inform the value of additional renewable energy investments at specific locations, the need for transmission and storage development, and opportunities load growth or adaptation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗