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NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of adjoint-based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoints of numerical weather prediction models may be employed for Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) in order to monitor the contribution of ingested observation data on short-term forecast skill. However, the calculation of short-term forecast error is difficult due to the lack of a truly independent dataset for verification. In an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework, the Nature Run is able to provide a true and complete verification dataset and allows accurate evaluation of short term forecast errors. In this work, an OSSE developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to explore the impact of observational data on forecasts in the 6 to 48 hour range. An adjoint of the Global Earth Observing System model is employed to compare the observation impacts estimated using both self-analysis verification and the true Nature Run verification. Self-analysis verification is found to inflate the estimated forecast error growth during the early forecast period, resulting in overestimations of observation impacts, particularly in the 6-12 hour forecast range. By 48 hours, the self-analysis verification estimates of forecast error and observation impacts more closely match the true values. The fraction of beneficial observations is also overinflated at short forecast times when self-analysis verification is used. The progression of impacts of an individual observation or data type depends on the character of the growth of the initial condition error that each observation affects.

numerical weather prediction↗

NASA NTRS1998

Global Warming Estimation from MSU

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

Prabhakara, C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Speed vs Accuracy: Effect on Ligand Pose Accuracy of Varying Box Size and Exhaustiveness in AutoDock Vina

Abstract Structure‐based virtual high‐throughput screening involves docking chemical libraries to targets of interest. A parameter pertinent to the accuracy of the resulting pose is the root mean square deviation (RMSD) from a known crystallographic structure, i. e., the ‘docking power’. Here, using a popular algorithm, Autodock Vina, as a model program, we evaluate the effects of varying two common docking parameters: the box size (the size of docking search space) and the exhaustiveness of the global search (the number of independent runs starting from random ligand conformations) on the RMSD from the PDBbind v2017 refined dataset of experimental protein‐ligand complexes. Although it is clear that exhaustiveness is an important parameter, there is wide variation in the values used, with variation between 1 and >100. We, therefore, evaluated a combination of cubic boxes of different sizes and five exhaustiveness values (1, 8, 25, 50, 75, 100) within the range of those commonly adopted. The results show that the default exhaustiveness value of 8 performs well overall for most box sizes. In contrast, for all box sizes, but particularly for large boxes, an exhaustiveness value of 1 led to significantly higher median RMSD (mRMSD) values. The docking power was slightly improved with an exhaustiveness of 25, but the mRMSD changes little with values higher than 25. Therefore, although low exhaustiveness is computationally faster, the results are more likely to be far from reality, and, conversely, values >25 led to little improvement at the expense of computational resources. Overall, we recommend users to use at least the default exhaustiveness value of 8 for virtual screening calculations.

Agarwal, Rupesh↗

NASA NTRS2021

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Feasibility Study of Distributed Decision-Making on the Edge for Urban Air Mobility

The Concept of Operations for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) put forward by FAA, NASA, and several industry stakeholders acknowledges the diversity and complexity in UAM operations and, thereby, envisions a federated architecture for UAM management. In this architecture, the decision-making is distributed to a set of service providers who collectively manage the shared airspace usage by different stakeholders. This notionally brings autonomy closer to the UAM businesses and encourages to explore the feasibility of decision making on the very edge, which is the topic of the presented research. This paper reports research conducted on the hypothesis based on which the residual compute capability onboard smart unmanned aerial systems (UASs) is utilized to build situational awareness and resolve conflicts by passive and active coordination among multiple UASs, thereby implementing a layer of distributed autonomy in UAM. Key features of the edge-computing approach involve inter-UAS information exchange, independent assessment of own flight and environmental conditions, and estimation of other UASs’ flight preferences, incorporating machine learning techniques in the last two. Parallel computing on portable graphics processing unit (GPU) enables the machine learning workflow on the edge. A custom-built 3D simulator is used to evaluate the efficacy of the distributed decision-making on the edge. Each edge node, representing a smart UAS, connects to the simulator from a remote location and independently controls the behavior of the corresponding virtual asset in the simulator, analogous to participants in an online multi-player game. The presented edge-computing-based distributed decision-making framework is envisioned to pave the way for collective mobility of autonomous air vehicles in the future shared airspace, while allowing the inclusion of the business preferences of the UAS operators within allowed regulatory limits.

Edge computing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Feasibility Study of Distributed Decision-Making on the Edge for Urban Air Mobility

Edge computing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efforts to enhance reproducibility in a human performance research project

Background: Ensuring the validity of results from funded programs is a critical concern for agencies that sponsor biological research. In recent years, the open science movement has sought to promote reproducibility by encouraging sharing not only of finished manuscripts but also of data and code supporting their findings. While these innovations have lent support to third-party efforts to replicate calculations underlying key results in the scientific literature, fields of inquiry where privacy considerations or other sensitivities preclude the broad distribution of raw data or analysis may require a more targeted approach to promote the quality of research output. Methods: We describe efforts oriented toward this goal that were implemented in one human performance research program, Measuring Biological Aptitude, organized by the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency's Biological Technologies Office. Our team implemented a four-pronged independent verification and validation (IV&V) strategy including 1) a centralized data storage and exchange platform, 2) quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of data collection, 3) test and evaluation of performer models, and 4) an archival software and data repository. Results: Our IV&V plan was carried out with assistance from both the funding agency and participating teams of researchers. QA/QC of data acquisition aided in process improvement and the flagging of experimental errors. Holdout validation set tests provided an independent gauge of model performance. Conclusions: In circumstances that do not support a fully open approach to scientific criticism, standing up independent teams to cross-check and validate the results generated by primary investigators can be an important tool to promote reproducibility of results.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating pulse-shaping capabilities of next-generation pulsed power architectures

This project evaluated the pulse shaping capabilities of next-generation pulsed power (NGPP) architectures. NGPP architectures share several common attributes including multiple independent pulse-generation lines, a radial water-insulated impedance transformer, and a central vacuum insulated load region. A multi-module circuit model was developed, incorporating independent pulse-generation lines and a 2-D transmission line mesh of the radial impedance transformer to assess the effects of azimuthal asymmetry in pulse-shaped experiments. Circuit model simulations demonstrated that NGPP architectures are able to produce the the desired current pulse shapes for exemplar NGPP experiments. Additionally, the project explored automated methods for experiment design, including derivative -ree optimization and machine learning. Pulse-shaped experiments require designers to determine machine parameters that reliably produce the desired current pulse at the load, a process that typically relies on expert knowledge and iterative adjustments using the Z circuit model. Given the increased complexity of NGPP systems, this manual approach may be impractical. While the evaluated methods do not eliminate the need for manual iteration, they can reduce the time required for experiment design. Derivative-free optimization automates much of the trial-and-error process, providing a close starting point for manual adjustments or making small modifications to near-final designs. Meanwhile, deep neural network methods can generate a good qualitative match to the desired current pulse in under one second without requiring circuit model simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating wind speed and power forecasts for wind energy applications using an open-source and systematic validation framework

Building on the verification and validation work developed under the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project, this work exhibits the value of a consistent procedure to evaluate wind power forecasts. We established an open-source Python code base tailored for wind speed and wind power forecast validation, WE-Validate. The code base can evaluate model forecasts with observations in a coherent manner. To demonstrate the systematic validation framework of WE-Validate, we designed and hosted a forecast evaluation benchmark exercise. We invited forecast providers in industry and academia to participate and submit forecasts for two case studies. We then evaluated the submissions with WE-Validate. Our findings suggest that ensemble means have reasonable skills in time series forecasting, whereas they are often inferior to single ensemble members in wind ramp forecasting. Adopting a voting scheme in ramp forecasting that allows ensemble members to detect ramps independently leads to satisfactory skill scores. Throughout this document, we also emphasize the importance of using statistically robust and resistant metrics as well as equitable skill scores in forecast evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking Cylindrical Blast Wave Theory Against the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Weak shock theory based on cylindrical blast waves has been used to interpret meteor infrasound, but it has not been systematically benchmarked against a non-ablating hypersonic source with independently known parameters. The objective of this study is not to propose a new theoretical framework, but to evaluate the operational validity of the existing suite of blast radius formulations against a high-fidelity ground truth dataset. The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023 provides such a benchmark because the capsule geometry, trajectory, and infrasound emission points are constrained from mission data and ray tracing, reducing source-side uncertainty associated with ablation. Using observations from 39 infrasound stations, this benchmarking study evaluates six published blast radius (${R}_{0}$ ) formulations and three weak-shock transition coefficients ( C ) within a stratified atmospheric propagation model to predict signal period and peak overpressure. The benchmarking identifies the Sakurai formulation as the best-performing formulation for non-ablating bodies, with the Jones/Plooster formulation performing comparably when a physically appropriate C is adopted. Sakurai and Jones/Plooster yield linear-period median absolute percentage residuals of 9% and 11%, respectively. The period predictions show only weak sensitivity to C at these propagation distances. The Mach-diameter approximation commonly used in meteor studies overestimates ${R}_{0}$ by more than a factor of 3 in the absence of ablation. Finally, these results establish a performance baseline for applying cylindrical blast wave theory to effectively non-ablating hypersonic bodies and demonstrate that the signal period is a robust observable for constraining ${R}_{0}$.

atmospheric entry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Tandem Cell Designs for Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction to Ethylene

Electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction (CO 2 R) is a promising approach for the decentralized production of fuels such as ethylene (C 2 H 4 ). However, the use of Cu, the most efficient metal CO 2 R catalyst for the generation of C 2 H 4 known to date, generally yields a product stream with poor selectivity. In an effort to increase selectivity, the reaction from CO 2 to C 2 H 4 can be broken down into two steps using tandem CO 2 R electrolyzers: formation of CO from CO 2 and subsequent reduction of CO to C 2 H 4 . Here, in this study, we present two novel tandem electrolyzer architectures that closely integrate two cathodes, one for CO generation and one for conversion to C 2 H 4 , while still enabling independent electrical control of the cathodic surfaces. Cathode segmentation in each of these designs also permits the controlled sequencing of mass flow of chemical intermediates in the order of Au to Cu cathode catalysts, in contrast to earlier work relying on uncontrolled, passive diffusion to facilitate the flow of chemical intermediates between catalysts. When comparing the performance of the newly developed electrolyzer cell designs with a dual electrolyzer system, we found that the dual electrolyzer system yields the highest C 2 H 4 faradaic efficiencies (FEs) of 31% and C 2 H 4 concentrations (∼8 mol %). However, a single Cu-containing electrolyzer outperformed all three tandem systems in terms of C 2 H 4 FE (34%). Our findings, enabled by independent control of the two tandem cathode surfaces, indicate that tandem CO 2 R systems need to be evaluated carefully by testing them at various relevant current densities.

C2H4↗

DOE OSTI2021

New Insights Into Error Decomposition for Precipitation Products

Abstract It is very important to quantify errors of precipitation estimation products. However, the existing methods do not describe all error components and are therefore not comprehensive enough. In this study, we propose a four‐component error decomposition method (4CED) that decomposes the total errors of precipitation products into four independent parts: hit positive bias, hit negative bias, false bias, and missed bias. And we use it to evaluate the performance of the three latest satellite precipitation products in the eastern monsoon region of China. Our study reveals 4CED has apparent improvements compared with the previous method. Results also provide new insights for tracking error sources and quantifying the error magnitudes of precipitation products. Moreover, the proposed 4CED can be extended to different spatial and temporal scales. Our new method will not only contribute to product upgrades, but also provide guidance for potential applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lab Evaluation of Downward Capacity of Radiant Ceiling Panel Systems

This project investigated the cooling delivery effectiveness of radiant ceiling panels as a function of attic insulation level using multiple laboratory testing and analytical methodologies. Delivery effectiveness is the heating or cooling energy delivered to a conditioned space divided by the total heating or cooling energy added or removed by the space conditioning system. The lower the losses of the heating or cooling delivery method, the higher the delivery effectiveness. For ducted systems, delivery effectiveness is reduced by both air leakage and thermal losses (especially if the ducts are installed in attics), while the delivery effectiveness of a radiant system supplied by hot and cold water is only reduced by thermal losses, which can be mitigated by sufficient insulation above, or at the "back" of the panel. Being installed at or below the ceiling plane, sufficient back insulation should be provided by default in the form of the attic insulation above the radiant ceiling panels. Site-built radiant ceiling panels were evaluated at Frontier Energy’s Building Science Research Laboratory (BSRL) in a uniquely designed environmental test chamber with independently controllable indoor and attic spaces and a height-adjustable ceiling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1973

Accurate, reliable prototype earth horizon sensor head

The design and performance is described of an accurate and reliable prototype earth sensor head (ARPESH). The ARPESH employs a detection logic 'locator' concept and horizon sensor mechanization which should lead to high accuracy horizon sensing that is minimally degraded by spatial or temporal variations in sensing attitude from a satellite in orbit around the earth at altitudes in the 500 km environ 1,2. An accuracy of horizon location to within 0.7 km has been predicted, independent of meteorological conditions. This corresponds to an error of 0.015 deg-at 500 km altitude. Laboratory evaluation of the sensor indicates that this accuracy is achieved. First, the basic operating principles of ARPESH are described; next, detailed design and construction data is presented and then performance of the sensor under laboratory conditions in which the sensor is installed in a simulator that permits it to scan over a blackbody source against background representing the earth space interface for various equivalent plant temperatures.

Schwarz, F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

High power phase locked laser oscillators

The feasibility of mechanizing an adaptive array of independent laser oscillators for generation of a high power coherent output was experimentally investigated. Tests were structured to evaluate component/system requirements for delivery of energy to a low-earth orbit satellite. Initial experiments addressed the control issues of phase locking unstable resonators at low power levels. A successful phase lock demonstration formed the basis for the design and fabrication of the high power, water-cooled, control mirror subsequently installed in the NASA LeRC high power laser. Tests were performed to characterize the operational limits of the laser system and included quantitative assessment of the frequency stability, noise sources, and optical properties of the beam.

Hayes, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Wind estimation using air data probe measurements to evaluate meteorological measurements made during Space Shuttle entries

Deterministic and weighted least squares methods for obtaining estimates of the horizontal winds encountered during the Shuttle entry phase are described. The estimates are based on in situ Air Data System (ADS) measurements of angle-of-attack, side-slip angle and true airspeed, in conjunction with inertial trajectory parameters obtained from the post flight trajectory reconstruction. Accuracies in the wind estimates obtained from each method are assessed using both theoretical arguments and flight results. Comparisons of derived winds with meteorological measurements taken during the first three Shuttle entries have demonstrated: (1) the usefulness of the wind estimators for evaluating meteorological measurements below 50 kft, and (2) the potential for adequate wind determinations in the absence of independent wind measurements. Comparisons of STS-3 flight-derived L/D versus predicted values from the LaRC aerodynamic data base are presented from 50 kft to touchdown. These results exemplify the importance of such determinations to enhance the ongoing Shuttle aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic research.

Kelly, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of Three Constitutive Models for the Prediction of Hastelloy X Elevated Temperature Cyclic Response

The approach for the method development assumes that, for a thermally loaded structure, the overall strain history is defined by linear elastic analysis. The local stress history at a fatigue critical location is then determined from a one dimensional material behavior model and the local strain and temperature conditions. Three material models are currently being evaluated to assess their ability to predict relevant high temperature cyclic material response characteristics. They are: a time independent classical plasticity and creep representation, a time dependent viscoplastic model capable of predicting combined creep and plasticity effects, and an approximate elastic analysis approach that uses a series of stress-strain curves and a cyclic hardening model to determine reverse plasticity.

Moreno, V.↗