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At least 685 records · Page 38

A Kinetic Monte Carlo Approach for Simulating Cascading Transmission Line Failure

In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles electromechanical dynamics are excited by small Gaussian disturbances in demand and generation around a specified operating point. In this context, a single line failure is interpreted in a large deviation context as a first escape event across a surface in phase space defined by line security constraints. The resulting system of stochastic differential equations admits a transverse decomposition of the drift, which leads to considerable simplification in evaluating the quasipotential (rate function) and, consequently, computation of exit rates. Tractable expressions for the rate of transmission line failure in a restricted network are derived from large deviation theory arguments and validated against numerical simulations. Extensions to realistic settings are considered, and individual line failure models are aggregated into a Markov model of cascading failure inspired by chemical kinetics. Cascades are generated by traversing a graph composed of weighted edges representing transitions to degraded network topologies. Numerical results indicate that the Markov model can produce cascades with qualitative power-law properties similar to those observed in empirical cascades.

Kinetic Monte Carlo, rare events, Cascading Failur↗

Maturity Model for Advancing Smart Grid Interoperability

Abstract—Interoperability is about the properties of devices and systems to connect and work properly. Advancing interoperability eases integration and maintenance of the resulting interconnection. This leads to faster integration, lower labor and component costs, predictability of projects and the resulting performance, and evolutionary paths for upgrade. When specifications are shared and standardized, competition and novel solutions can bring new value streams to the community of stakeholders involved. Advancing interoperability involves reaching agreement for how things join at their interfaces. The quality of the agreements and the alignment of parties involved in the agreement present challenges that are best met with process improvement techniques. The GridWise® Architecture Council (GWAC) sponsored by the United States Department of Energy is supporting an effort to use concepts from capability maturity models used in the software industry to advance interoperability of smart grid technology. An interoperability maturity model has been drafted and experience is being gained through trials on various types of projects and community efforts. This paper describes the value and objectives of maturity models, the nature of the interoperability maturity model and how it compares with other maturity models, and experiences gained with its use.

IEEE↗

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mathematical model of the current density for the 30-cm engineering model thruster

Mathematical models are presented for both the singly and doubly charged ion current densities downstream of the 30-cm engineering model thruster with 0.5% compensated dished grids. These models are based on the experimental measurements of Vahrenkamp at a 2-amp ion beam operating condition. The cylindrically symmetric beam of constant velocity ions is modeled with continuous radial source and focusing functions across 'plane' grids with similar angular distribution functions. A computer program is used to evaluate the double integral for current densities in the near field and to obtain a far field approximation beyond 10 grid radii. The utility of the model is demonstrated for (1) calculating the directed thrust and (2) determining the impingement levels on various spacecraft surfaces from a two-axis gimballed, 2 x 3 thruster array.

Cuffel, R. F.↗

Per-phase Phasor Modeling of GFL and GFM Inverters for Distribution System Dynamic Studies

A significant increase in inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs) is expected in the near future. Existing electromagnetic models and sequential electromechanical models of DERs supporting dynamic analysis cannot be extended to largescale three-phase distribution systems usually with unbalanced construction. As such, there is a need for appropriate industry models that can support distribution system dynamic studies. This paper describes the latest phasor models of grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) inverters that can capture distribution system dynamics under grid disturbances. The overall modeling performance is examined and compared with results from other platforms such as controller hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL), MATLAB/Simulink and PSCAD with electromagnetic transient (EMT) and/or phasor simulation capabilities under balanced and unbalanced faults.

Distribution system, Grid modelling, GridLAB-D, Po↗

Propulsion Simulations Using Advanced Turbulence Models with the Unstructured Grid CFD Tool, TetrUSS

A computational investigation has been completed to assess the capability of TetrUSS for exhaust nozzle flows. Three configurations were chosen for this study (1) an axisymmetric supersonic jet, (2) a transonic axisymmetric boattail with solid sting operated at different Reynolds number and Mach number, and (3) an isolated non-axisymmetric nacelle with a supersonic cruise nozzle. These configurations were chosen because existing experimental data provided a means for measuring the ability of TetrUSS for simulating complex nozzle flows. The main objective of this paper is to validate the implementation of advanced two-equation turbulence models in the unstructured-grid CFD code USM3D for propulsion flow cases. USM3D is the flow solver of the TetrUSS system. Three different turbulence models, namely, Menter Shear Stress Transport (SST), basic k epsilon, and the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) are used in the present study. The results are generally in agreement with other implementations of these models in structured-grid CFD codes. Results indicate that USM3D provides accurate simulations for complex aerodynamic configurations with propulsion integration.

Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.↗

An interpretation of the spectral properties of hot hydrogen-rich white dwarfs with stratified H/He model atmospheres

A grid of stratified H/He model atmospheres applicable to the interpretation of the spectral properties of hot H-rich white dwarfs (WDs) is computed. Samples of hot DA WDs observed with Exosat and Einstein are analyzed using the models. Six out of six objects with T(eff) = 35,000 K or less do not show a EUV/soft X-ray flux deficiency and therefore can be understood solely in terms of pure hydrogen atmospheres. A majority of DA WDs hotter than this value do show a flux deficiency and thus require the presence of some absorbers in their atmospheres. It is shown that the Exosat broadband photometry of Feige 24 and G191 B2B cannot be explained in terms of stratified atmospheres. Absorption by heavy elements is certainly responsible for the required EUV/soft X-ray opacity source in these cases. However, the Exosat data are consistent with the hypothesis of stratified atmospheres in the four remaining objects.

Vennes, Stephane↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine learning from RANS and LES to inform coarse grid simulations

Nuclear system thermal hydraulic analysis has historically relied on computationally inexpensive 1D codes. However, such tools are unable to capture multiscale multidimensional effects in large nuclear reactor enclosures. On the other hand, simulations with higher fidelity can be too expensive for such purposes. One of the ways to reduce computational cost is to perform simulations on a coarse grid, which, unfortunately, introduces large discretization errors. In this paper, two high-to-low data-driven approaches are investigated: (1) a coarse grid turbulence model to predict eddy viscosity and (2) correction of errors in coarse grid velocity fields. The approaches aim to reduce grid- and turbulence model-induced errors in coarse grid Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations. Two sources of high-fidelity data, RANS and large eddy simulations (LES), are explored. To extract the eddy viscosity from the LES data, an inverse optimization problem is solved. However, the LES eddy viscosity is shown to be comparable to the RANS eddy viscosity in terms of error reduction. Therefore, the directly available RANS eddy viscosity was used to develop a coarse grid data-driven turbulence model. Additionally, error correction in velocity is used to reduce the remaining uncertainties and bring the results closer to reality. In conclusion, the performance of the frameworks is demonstrated for a scaled upper plenum of a gas-cooled reactor facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Volumetric Rendering on Wavelet-Based Adaptive Grid

Numerical modeling of physical phenomena frequently involves processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In the last two decades, the advancements in wavelet-based numerical methodologies to solve partial differential equations, combined with the unique properties of wavelet analysis to resolve localized structures of the solution on dynamically adaptive computational meshes, make it feasible to perform large-scale numerical simulations of a variety of physical systems on a dynamically adaptive computational mesh that changes both in space and time. Volumetric visualization of the solution is an essential part of scientific computing, yet the existing volumetric visualization techniques do not take full advantage of multi-resolution wavelet analysis and are not fully tailored for visualization of a compressed solution on the wavelet-based adaptive computational mesh. Our objective is to explore the alternatives for the visualization of time-dependent data on space-time varying adaptive mesh using volume rendering while capitalizing on the available sparse data representation. Two alternative formulations are explored. The first one is based on volumetric ray casting of multi-scale datasets in wavelet space. Rather than working with the wavelets at the finest possible resolution, a partial inverse wavelet transform is performed as a preprocessing step to obtain scaling functions on a uniform grid at a user-prescribed resolution. As a result, a solution in physical space is represented by a superposition of scaling functions on a coarse regular grid and wavelets on an adaptive mesh. An efficient and accurate ray casting algorithm is based just on these coarse scaling functions. Additional details are added during the ray tracing by taking an appropriate number of wavelets into account based on support overlap with the interpolation point, wavelet coefficient magnitude, and other characteristics, such as opacity accumulation (front to back ordering) and deviation from frontal viewing direction. The second approach is based on complementing of wavelet-based adaptive mesh to the traditional Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) mesh. Both algorithms are illustrated and compared to the existing volume visualization software for Rayleigh-Benard thermal convection and electron density data sets in terms of rendering time and visual quality for different data compression of both wavelet-based and AMR adaptive meshes.

Vezolainen, Alexei V.↗

Improving the representation of isopycnal mixing in E3SM (Final Report)

The DOE-supported Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a major attempt by the Department of Energy to develop a new Earth System Model using unstructured grids, which allow for the model to concentrate resolution where it is most needed and avoid numerical artifacts experienced by previous Earth System Models (ESMs) using regular grids in which the lateral resolution becomes extremely fine as the resolution shrinks at the poles. This effort required rewriting many of the algorithms previously developed for regular grids. One algorithm that was problematic in the first version of E3SM was the representation of mixing due to turbulent ocean eddies with scales smaller than the model grid. These mesoscale eddies are the primary way by which tracers are stirred along density surfaces in the ocean interior. In particular, the process of isopycnal mixing exchanges fresher, more oxygenated waters from polar regions with saltier, nutrient-rich and oxygen poor waters from tropical regions. Previous work in our group has shown that this mechanism is vitally important for bringing oxygen into poorly ventilated tropical regions (Gnanadesikan et al., 2012, 2013) and plays a significant role in determining the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (Gnanadesikan et al., 2015). However, in E3SMv1 this process was turned off, as turning it on caused the model to become unstable. Additionally, the rate of isopycnal mixing is directly proportional to a mixing coefficient $A_{Redi}$ whose value varies from less than 400 m 2 /s to 2000 m 2 /s across contemporary climate models. The main thrusts of this proposal therefore were to: 1.) Improve the numerics of isopycnal mixing in E3SM; 2.) Identify ways in which climate models are sensitive to the isopycnal mixing coefficient; and 3.) Develop better representations of the isopycnal mixing coefficient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Subgrid-Scale Modeling of Compressible Turbulence

A new sub-grid scale model is presented for the large-eddy simulation of compressible turbulence. In the proposed model, compressibility contributions have been incorporated in the sub-grid scale eddy viscosity which, in the incompressible limit, reduce to a form originally proposed by Smagorinsky (1963). The model has been tested against a simple extension of the traditional Smagorinsky eddy viscosity model using simulations of decaying, compressible homogeneous turbulence. Simulation results show that the proposed model provides greater dissipation of the compressive modes of the resolved-scale velocity field than does the Smagorinsky eddy viscosity model. For an initial r.m.s. turbulence Mach number of 1.0, simulations performed using the Smagorinsky model become physically unrealizable (i.e., negative energies) because of the inability of the model to sufficiently dissipate fluctuations due to resolved scale velocity dilations. The proposed model is able to provide the necessary dissipation of this energy and maintain the realizability of the flow. Following Zeman (1990), turbulent shocklets are considered to dissipate energy independent of the Kolmogorov energy cascade. A possible parameterization of dissipation by turbulent shocklets for Large-Eddy Simulation is also presented.

Squires, Kyle↗

Study of CFD Variation on Transport Configurations from the Second Drag-Prediction Workshop

This paper describes and analyzes a series of nearly 90 CFD test cases performed as a contribution to the second Drag Prediction Workshop, held in association with the AIAA in June 2003. Two configurations are included: DLR-F6 wing-body and wing-body-nacelle-pylon. The ability of CFD to predict the drag, lift, and pitching moment from experiment-including the "delta" arising from the addition of the nacelle and pylon-is assessed. In general, at a fixed angle of attack CFD overpredicts lift, but predicts the delta C (sub L) reasonably well. At low lift levels (C (sub L) less than 0.3)), delta C (sub D) is 20-30 drag counts (30-45%) high. At the target lift coefficient of C(sub L) = 0.5, delta C (sub D) is overpredicted by between 11-16 counts. However, the primary contribution of this paper is mot so much the assessment of CFD against experiment, but rather a detailed assessment and analysis of CFD variation. The series of test cases are designed to determine the sensitivity/variability of CFD to a variety of factors, including grid, turbulence model, transition code, and viscous model. Using medium-level grids (6-11 million points) at the target lift coefficient, the maximum variation in drag due to different grids is 5-11 drag counts, due to code is 5-10 counts, due to turbulence model is 7-15 counts, due to transition is 10-11 counts, and due to viscous model is 4-5 counts. Other specific variations are described in the paper.

Christopher L Rumsey↗

An Efficient, Globally Convergent Method for Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Adaptive Model Reduction and Sparse Grids

We present a new approach to efficiently solve optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) with uncertain coefficients. The method leverages two sources of inexactness that trade accuracy for speed: (1) stochastic collocation based on dimension-adaptive sparse grids (SGs), which approximates the stochastic objective function with a limited number of quadrature nodes, and (2) projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs), which generate efficient approximations to PDE solutions. These two sources of inexactness lead to inexact objective function and gradient evaluations, which are managed by a trust-region method that guarantees global convergence by adaptively refining the SG and ROM until a proposed error indicator drops below a tolerance specified by trust-region convergence theory. A key feature of the proposed method is that the error indicator---which accounts for errors incurred by both the SG and ROM---must be only an asymptotic error bound, i.e., a bound that holds up to an arbitrary constant that need not be computed. This allows the approach to be applicable to a wide range of problems, including those where sharp, computable error bounds are not available; this distinguishes the proposed method from previous works. Numerical experiments performed on a model problem from optimal flow control under uncertainty verify global convergence of the method and demonstrate the method's ability to outperform previously proposed alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Tao, W.-K.↗