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At least 685 records · Page 38

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗

Graph-Augmented Normalizing Flows for Anomaly Detection of Multiple Time Series

Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time series, however, is a challenging subject, owing to the intricate interdependencies among the constituent series. We hypothesize that anomalies occur in low density regions of a distribution and explore the use of normalizing flows for unsupervised anomaly detection, because of their superior quality in density estimation. Moreover, we propose a novel flow model by imposing a Bayesian network among constituent series. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that models causal relationships; it factorizes the joint probability of the series into the product of easy-to-evaluate conditional probabilities. We call such a graph-augmented normalizing flow approach GANF and propose joint estimation of the DAG with flow parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of GANF for density estimation, anomaly detection, and identification of time series distribution drift.

Dai, Enyan↗

Glenn Heat Transfer Simulation and Solver Graphical User Interface: Development and Testing

In the Tui ine Branch of the Turbomachinery and Propulsion Systems Division, researching and developing efficient turbine aerothermodynamics technologies is the main objective. Creating effective turbines for jet engines is a process which, if based purely on physical experimental testing, would be extremely expensive. It is for this reason, and also for the reasons of speed and ease, that the Turbine Branch spends a large amount of effort working with simulations of turbines. Specifically, they focus their work on two main fields: Computational Field Dynamics (CFD), and Experimental data analysis. The experimental field involves comparing experimental results to simulated results, whereas the CFD field involves running these simulations. The simulations are applied to aerodynamics and heat transfer cases, for both steady and unsteady flow conditions. By and large this work is applied to the domain of flow and heat transfer in axial turbines. The main application used to run these heat flow simulations is GlennHT. This program, recently rewritten in FORTRAN 90, allows the user to input a job file which specifies all the necessary parameters needed to simulate flow through a user-defined grid. There are several other executables used as well, ranging in application from converting grid files to and from particular formats, to merging blocks in a connectivity file, to converting connectivity files to a GlennHT compatible format. All of these executables are run from the command line in a terminal; some of them have interactive prompts where the user must specify the files to be manipulated after the program starts, while others take all of their parameters from the command line. With this amount of variation comes a good deal of commands and formats to memorize, which can cause slower and less efficient work, as users may forget how to execute a certain program, or not remember the pathnames of the files they wish to use. Two years ago, steps were made to expedite this process with a graphical user interface (GUI) that combines the functionality of all the executables along with adding some new functionality, such as residuals graphing and boundary conditions creation. Upon my beginning here at Glenn, many parts of the GUI, which was developed in Java, were nonfunctional. There were also issues with cross-platforming, as systems in the branch were transitioning from Silicon Graphics (SGI) machines to Linux machines. My goals this summer are to finish the parts of the GUI that are not yet completed, fix parts that did not work correctly, expand the functionality to include other useful features, such as grid surface highlighting, and make the system compatible with both Linux and SGI. I will also be heavily testing the system and providing sufficient documentation on how to use the GUI, as no such documentation existed previously.

Kardamis, Joseph R.↗

Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Smart Grid: A Survey

The smart grid is enabling the collection of massive amounts of high-dimensional and multi-type data about the electric power grid operations, by integrating advanced metering infrastructure, control technologies, and communication technologies. However, the traditional modeling, optimization, and control technologies have many limitations in processing the data; thus, the applications of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in the smart grid are becoming more apparent. This survey presents a structured review of the existing research into some common AI techniques applied to load forecasting, power grid stability assessment, faults detection, and security problems in the smart grid and power systems. It also provides further research challenges for applying AI technologies to realize truly smart grid systems. Finally, this survey presents opportunities of applying AI to smart grid problems. The paper concludes that the applications of AI techniques can enhance and improve the reliability and resilience of smart grid systems.

energy systems↗

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗

Guided Resilience Self Assessment Application

Reliable electricity access is vital for everything from hospitals to national security. When grid disturbances occur, it is crucial to minimize the amount of time it takes to recover. Grid resiliency considers both the preparation for and recovery from high-impact low-frequency disturbances (HILF) such as weather events and cyber attacks. The Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) funds the multi-laboratory Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Control Launchpad (MIRACL) project to investigate technologies to support and grow distributed wind. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) contribute to resilience and cybersecurity efforts for the project, and have produced a resilience framework to evaluate system resilience based on individual system specifications. In order to make this framework easy for anyone to apply, I have coded a web application that allows users to input their power system qualities, goals, and perceived risks and then receive suggestions on how to improve their grid resiliency. The web application follows the seven steps in the planning stage of the framework process, allowing the user to input information about their grid and select from common goals, metrics, and hazards, as well as add their own. The application currently provides information about how to complete each step, requiring minimal prior knowledge of the framework. Future work for this application will include allowing the user to submit line drawings of their system and incorporate modeling tools so that the hazard simulations of applying the framework is completed for the user.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Unstructured grids for sonic-boom analysis

A fast and efficient unstructured grid scheme is evaluated for sonic-boom applications. The scheme is used to predict the near-field pressure signatures of a body of revolution at several body lengths below the configuration, and those results are compared with experimental data. The introduction of the 'sonic-boom grid topology' to this scheme make it well suited for sonic-boom applications, thus providing an alternative to conventional multiblock structured grid schemes.

Fouladi, Kamran↗

A tesselated probabilistic representation for spatial robot perception and navigation

The ability to recover robust spatial descriptions from sensory information and to efficiently utilize these descriptions in appropriate planning and problem-solving activities are crucial requirements for the development of more powerful robotic systems. Traditional approaches to sensor interpretation, with their emphasis on geometric models, are of limited use for autonomous mobile robots operating in and exploring unknown and unstructured environments. Here, researchers present a new approach to robot perception that addresses such scenarios using a probabilistic tesselated representation of spatial information called the Occupancy Grid. The Occupancy Grid is a multi-dimensional random field that maintains stochastic estimates of the occupancy state of each cell in the grid. The cell estimates are obtained by interpreting incoming range readings using probabilistic models that capture the uncertainty in the spatial information provided by the sensor. A Bayesian estimation procedure allows the incremental updating of the map using readings taken from several sensors over multiple points of view. An overview of the Occupancy Grid framework is given, and its application to a number of problems in mobile robot mapping and navigation are illustrated. It is argued that a number of robotic problem-solving activities can be performed directly on the Occupancy Grid representation. Some parallels are drawn between operations on Occupancy Grids and related image processing operations.

Elfes, Alberto↗

Novel Data Driven Noise Emulation Framework using Deep Neural Network for Generating Synthetic PMU Measurements

Sensors play a critical role in supporting day-to-day grid operations and they are essential to operator’s decision-making process. Furthermore, sensors and sensor behaviors need to be emulated with grid simulations to perform modeling studies and to design cutting edge power systems applications. Ensuring the accurate behavior of these applications requires accurate emulation of sensors and pertinent signals. However, most grid simulators and modeling tools assume either zero error scenarios or simplistic noise models that may not always correlate to real-world sensors. To address the above issue, this work presents an initial study on the noise characteristics of phasor measurement units (PMUs), along with models for recreating their unique noise signatures. The proposed methods (both analytical and machine-learning-based) provide a substantial increase in a sensor’s model fidelity, a feature that can be leveraged by an end-user application to yield more accurate system representations. The proposed methods were then applied to micro PMU data from the EPFL microgrid campus to extract sensor noise profiles. This data was used to train a deep learning model, which was tested to emulate the noise characteristics present in actual signals. Based on the observed results and the employed data-driven methodology, the proposed methods may be adapted to replicate the behavior of other grid sensors and power new applications capable of detecting sensor degradation and eventual device failures in near real-time.

PMU, noise emulation, synthetic measurements, deep↗

Methods of Performing Large Scale, Multidimensional Parametric Studies for Space Launch System Mission Analysis

Optimizing a large number of trajectories over a wide range of parameters is a difficult and computationally intensive, particularly when the parametric space has a large number of dimensions. Solving parametric studies like these require good initial conditions for each optimization case, which results in a significant amount of manual interaction and human judgment and can be time consuming. The Space Launch System (SLS) uses POST2 (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II) to simulate different ascent trajectories and perform mission analysis. SLS mission analysis currently uses two types of large scale, multidimensional parameter spaces. The qualifying factor between these spaces is the grid density, which determines the set of applicable solution methodologies. One type has a relatively low number of dimensions (2-3), but a large number of grid coordinates (2000- 4000), whereas the second type has a relatively low number of grid coordinates (150-350), but a higher number of dimensions (7-10).

Stein, W. B.↗

LAVA Applications to Open Rotors

Outline: LAVA (Launch Ascent Vehicle Aerodynamics); Introduction; Acoustics Related Applications; LAVA Applications to Open Rotor; Structured Overset Grids; Cartesian Grid with Immersed Boundary; High Speed Case; High Speed Case with Plate Low Speed Case.

Application↗

ARIES/Flatirons Facility - Hydrogen System Capability Buildout

Under the Advanced Research for Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative, NREL will build out hydrogen system capabilities at the Flatirons campus. The hydrogen infrastructure at the Flatirons campus will include a research-ready megawatt-scale electrolyzer with hydrogen compression and storage, and a fuel cell system. This hardware will support H2@Scale goals by enabling integrated systems R&D (e.g., to demonstrate grid services, energy storage, renewable hydrogen production, and innovative end-use applications). The system will be coupled with the controllable grid interface at the Flatirons campus and will be designed with flexibility to provide a testbed for integrated electrolyzer R&D, hydrogen utilization R&D, and to study the science of scaling for hydrogen energy systems.

39 EE - Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies (EE-3F↗

IGES transformer and NURBS in grid generation

In the field of Grid Generation and the CAD/CAM, there are numerous geometry output formats which require the designer to spend a great deal of time manipulating geometrical entities in order to achieve a useful sculptured geometrical description for grid generation. Also in this process, there is a danger of losing fidelity of the geometry under consideration. This stresses the importance of a standard geometry definition for the communication link between varying CAD/CAM and grid system. The IGES (Initial Graphics Exchange Specification) file is a widely used communication between CAD/CAM and the analysis tools. The scientists at NASA Research Centers - including NASA Ames, NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, NASA Marshall - have recognized this importance and, therefore, in 1992 they formed the committee of the 'NASA-IGES' which is the subset of the standard IGES. This committee stresses the importance and encourages the CFD community to use the standard IGES file for the interface between the CAD/CAM and CFD analysis. Also, two of the IGES entities -- the NURBS Curve (Entity 126) and NURBS Surface (Entity 128) -- which have many useful geometric properties -- like the convex hull property, local control property and affine invariance, also widely utilized analytical geometries can be accurately represented using NURBS. This is important in today grid generation tools because of the emphasis of the interactive design. To satisfy the geometry transformation between the CAD/CAM system and Grid Generation field, the CAGI (Computer Aided Geometry Design) developed, which include the Geometry Transformation, Geometry Manipulation and Geometry Generation as well as the user interface. This paper will present the successful development IGES file transformer and application of NURBS definition in the grid generation.

Yu, Tzu-Yi↗

Low Cost Electric Propulsion Thruster for Deep Space Robotic Science Missions

Electric Propulsion (EP) has found widespread acceptance by commercial satellite providers for on-orbit station keeping due to the total life cycle cost advantages these systems offer. NASA has also sought to benefit from the use of EP for primary propulsion onboard the Deep Space-1 and DAWN spacecraft. These applications utilized EP systems based on gridded ion thrusters, which offer performance unequaled by other electric propulsion thrusters. Through the In-Space Propulsion Project, a lower cost thruster technology is currently under development designed to make electric propulsion intended for primary propulsion applications cost competitive with chemical propulsion systems. The basis for this new technology is a very reliable electric propulsion thruster called the Hall thruster. Hall thrusters, which have been flown by the Russians dating back to the 1970s, have been used by the Europeans on the SMART-1 lunar orbiter and currently employed by 15 other geostationary spacecraft. Since the inception of the Hall thruster, over 100 of these devices have been used with no known failures. This paper describes the latest accomplishments of a development task that seeks to improve Hall thruster technology by increasing its specific impulse, throttle-ability, and lifetime to make this type of electric propulsion thruster applicable to NASA deep space science missions. In addition to discussing recent progress on this task, this paper describes the performance and cost benefits projected to result from the use of advanced Hall thrusters for deep space science missions.

Manzella, David↗

Application of the method of lines for solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations using a nonuniform grid distribution

The feasibility of the method of lines for solutions of physical problems requiring nonuniform grid distributions is investigated. To attain this, it is also necessary to investigate the stiffness characteristics of the pertinent equations. For specific applications, the governing equations considered are those for viscous, incompressible, two dimensional and axisymmetric flows. These equations are transformed from the physical domain having a variable mesh to a computational domain with a uniform mesh. The two governing partial differential equations are the vorticity and stream function equations. The method of lines is used to solve the vorticity equation and the successive over relaxation technique is used to solve the stream function equation. The method is applied to three laminar flow problems: the flow in ducts, curved-wall diffusers, and a driven cavity. Results obtained for different flow conditions are in good agreement with available analytical and numerical solutions. The viability and validity of the method of lines are demonstrated by its application to Navier-Stokes equations in the physical domain having a variable mesh.

Abolhassani, J. S.↗

Valuation of Hydrogen Technology on the Electric Grid Using Production Cost Modeling: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00736

This research project will estimate the value to the United States electric grid of deploying hydrogen technology (such as electrolyzers and hydrogen-fueled generation) under projected conditions of high renewable penetration. The analysis will advance the state of the art in systems-level cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen technology for the electric grid by incorporating production cost modeling results in the analysis. Large-scale grid simulation tools will be used to evaluate total system production cost and grid operation when hydrogen technology is deployed for applications such as energy storage and demand response. Scenarios will include one or more future grid mixes in the Western Interconnect (WI) with a high proportion of intermittent renewables. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) will work with four utility companies to refine scenarios. Results of the analysis will include comparing the net cost of hydrogen to other technologies for long duration storage, and of power-to-gas (P2G) scenarios including merchant hydrogen sale and hydrogen-fueled generation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Cyber-Power Co-Simulation for End-to-End Synchrophasor Network Analysis and Applications

The resiliency, reliability and security of the next generation cyber-power smart grid depend upon efficiently leveraging advanced communication and computing technologies. Also, developing real-time data-driven applications is critical to enable wide-area monitoring and control of the cyber-power grid given high-resolution data from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). North American Synchrophasor Initiative Network (NASPlnet) provides guidance for PMU data exchanges. With the advancement in networking and grid operation, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of different data flow architectures suggested by NASPInet and analyze the impact on applications. Therefore, we need a cyber-power co-simulation framework that supports very large-scale co-simulation capable of running in parallel, high-performance computing platforms and capturing real-life network behavior. This work presents an end-to-end automated and user-driven cyber-power co-simulation using NS3 to model communication networks, GridPACK to model the power grid, and HELICS as a co-simulation engine. Comparative analysis of latency in synchrophasor networks and a performance evaluation of a power system stabilizer application utilizing PMU data in an IEEE 39 bus test system is presented using this cosimulation testbed.

Mustafa, Hussain M.↗