Results for “flux analysis” — Page 38

NASA NTRS2012

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS2017

Environmental Barrier Coating Fracture, Fatigue and High-Heat-Flux Durability Modeling and Stochastic Progressive Damage Simulation

Advanced environmental barrier coatings will play an increasingly important role in future gas turbine engines because of their ability to protect emerging light-weight SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) engine components, further raising engine operating temperatures and performance. Because the environmental barrier coating systems are critical to the performance, reliability and durability of these hot-section ceramic engine components, a prime-reliant coating system along with established life design methodology are required for the hot-section ceramic component insertion into engine service. In this paper, we have first summarized some observations of high temperature, high-heat-flux environmental degradation and failure mechanisms of environmental barrier coating systems in laboratory simulated engine environment tests. In particular, the coating surface cracking morphologies and associated subsequent delamination mechanisms under the engine level high-heat-flux, combustion steam, and mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions will be discussed. The EBC compostion and archtechture improvements based on advanced high heat flux environmental testing, and the modeling advances based on the integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program will also be highlighted. The stochastic progressive damage simulation successfully predicts mud flat damage pattern in EBCs on coated 3-D specimens, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution was assumed in characterizing the coating layer stochastic strength response and the formation of damage was therefore modeled. The damage initiation and coalescence into progressively smaller mudflat crack cells was demonstrated. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the surface crack initiation and delamination propagation in conjunction with environmental degradation under high-heat-flux and environment load test conditions.

Mechanical creep and fatigue loading condition↗

NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of implicit second-order upwind-biased stencils

Truncation error and stability properties of several implicit upwind schemes for the two-dimensional Euler equations are examined. The schemes use linear data reconstruction methods to achieve second-order flux integrations where the implicit Jacobian operators are first order. The stability properties of the schemes are examined by a Von Neumann analysis of the linearized, constant-coefficient Euler equations. The choice of the data reconstruction method used to evaluate the flux integral has a dramatic effect on the convergence properties of the implicit solution method. In particular, the typical one-dimensional data reconstruction methods used with structured grids exhibit poor convergence properties compared to the unstructured grid method considered. Of the schemes examined, the one with the superior convergence properties is well-suited for both unstructured and structured grids, which has important implications for the design of implicit methods.

Roberts, Thomas W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Spaceborne Ocean Surface Exchange Data Analysis System

UNKNOWN

data↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aqua Aura Lifetime Drag Coefficient Analysis

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Aqua, Aura, Lifetime, Drag Coefficient, Solar Flux↗

NASA NTRS1978

A new use of high resolution magnetograms

Ground-based solar magnetograms are frequently in error by as much as twenty percent and contribute to the poor correlation between magnetic changes and solar flares. High resolution measurement of the magnetic field component, which is normal to the photosphere and measured at photospheric height, can be used to construct a magnetic flux partition function F. Therefore, dF/dt is an EMF which drives atmospheric currents in reconnecting solar active regions. With a high quality magnetograph, the solar probe can be used to obtain good estimates of F and dF/dt and thereby the energy stored as induced solar atmospheric currents during quiescent interflare periods. Should a flare occur during a favorable observing period, the present method of analysis should show characteristic signatures in F, DF/dt, and especially, in the stored flux computed from dF/dt.

Baum, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Particle-laden weakly swirling free jets: Measurements and predictions

A theoretical and experimental investigation of particle-laden, weakly swirling, turbulent free jets was conducted. Glass particles, having a Sauter mean diameter of 39 microns with a standard deviation of 15 microns, were used. A single loading ratio of 0.2 was used in the experiments. Measurements are reported for three swirl numbers, ranging from 0.0 to 0.3. The measurements included mean and fluctuating velocities of both phases, and particle mass flux distributions. Measurements were compared with predictions from three types of multiphase flow analysis: locally homogeneous flow (LHF); deterministic separated flow (DSF); and stochastic separated flow (SSF). For the particle-laden jets, the LHF and DSF models did not provide very satisfactory predictions. The LHF model generally overestimated the rate of decay of particle mean axial and angular velocities with streamwise distance, due to the neglect of particle inertia. The LHF model predictions of particle mass flux also showed poor agreement with measurements due to the assumption of no-slip between phases. The DSF model also performed quite poorly for predictions of particle mass flux, because turbulent dispersion of the particles was neglected. The SSF model, which accounts for both particle inertia and turbulent dispersion of the particles, yielded reasonably good predictions throughout the flow field for the particle-laden jets.

Bulzan, Daniel L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Particle-laden weakly swirling free jets - Measurements and predictions

A theoretical and experimental investigation of particle-laden, weakly swirling, turbulent free jets was conducted. Glass particles, having a Sauter mean diameter of 39 microns with a standard deviation of 15 microns, were used. A single loading ratio of 0.2 was used in the experiments. Measurements are reported for three swirl numbers, ranging from 0.0 to 0.3. The measurements included mean and fluctuating velocities of both phases, and particle mass flux distributions. Measurements were compared with predictions from three types of multiphase flow analysis: locally homogeneous flow (LHF); deterministic separated flow (DSF); and stochastic separated flow (SSF). For the particle-laden jets, the LHF and DSF models did not provide very satisfactory predictions. The LHF model generally overestimated the rate of decay of particle mean axial and angular velocities with streamwise distance, due to the neglect of particle inertia. The LHF model predictions of particle mass flux also showed poor agreement with measurements due to the assumption of no-slip between phases. The DSF model also performed quite poorly for predictions of particle mass flux, because turbulent dispersion of the particles was neglected. The SSF model, which accounts for both particle inertia and turbulent disperison of the particles, yielded reasonably good predictions throughout the flow field for the particle-laden jets.

Bulzan, Daniel L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

A method of long-term radar shower data analysis

Complex photographic and radar meteor observations have been carried out since 1957. Using the available observational data, the density of incident flux of meteoroids was estimated over a wide mass range of 0.001 to 100 g. To avoid the influence of apparatus selectivity a special technique was applied. The application of this technique to the radar shower data analysis is discussed in detail.

Simek, M.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Vector magnetometer design study: Analysis of a triaxial fluxgate sensor design demonstrates that all MAGSAT Vector Magnetometer specifications can be met

The design of the vector magnetometer selected for analysis is capable of exceeding the required accuracy of 5 gamma per vector field component. The principal elements that assure this performance level are very low power dissipation triaxial feedback coils surrounding ring core flux-gates and temperature control of the critical components of two-loop feedback electronics. An analysis of the calibration problem points to the need for improved test facilities.

Adams, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Large-scale reflection and absorption of solar radiation by clouds as influencing earth radiation budgets - New aircraft measurements.

Discussion of the first results of extensive recent aircraft measurements, in the short wavelengths, of the reflection and absorption properties of clouds and their impact on radiation budget studies. From the data obtained, the albedo of typical cloud types was determined integrally and spectrally. Some preliminary results are also offered for short-wave absorption and the apparent transmission of clouds. The effect of the atmospheric pathlength between sensor and target, exhibited through molecular scattering and aerosol scattering and absorption, is included in the data analysis. Results are also presented on vertical (short-wave) radiative flux profiles, within specific wavelength intervals, from near sea level to altitudes of about 40,000 ft over relatively short time intervals.

Drummond, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Auroral helium precipitation.

Application of the metal foil sampling technique, which has been used to measure helium, neon, and argon fluxes in the solar wind, to the problem of measuring the fluxes of these gases in the auroral primary radiation. Aluminum and platinum foils have been flown into two bright auroras and have been recovered. The foils have been analyzed for helium and neon isotopes with a mass spectrometer; so far only He4 has been detected. In the first flight the precipitating flux of He4 with particle energies above about 1 keV was approximately 1,000,000 per sq cm per sec, and the backscattered flux was smaller by about a factor of 10. In the second flight the aurora was less bright, and the He4 fluxes were lower by a factor of about 2. A rough analysis suggests that the mean energy of the incident particles was greater than 3 keV.

Axford, W. I.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Analytical tools and isolation of TOF events

Analytical tools are presented in two reports. The first is a probability analysis of the orbital distribution of events in relation to dust flux density observed in Pioneer 8 and 9 distributions. A distinction is drawn between asymmetries caused by random fluctuations and systematic variations, by calculating the probability of any particular asymmetry. The second article discusses particle trajectories for a repulsive force field. The force on a particle due to solar radiation pressure is directed along the particle's radius vector, from the sun, and is inversely proportional to its distance from the sun. Equations of motion which describe both solar radiation pressure and gravitational attraction are presented.

Wolf, H.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Apollo 17 lunar surface cosmic ray experiment - Measurement of heavy solar wind particles

During the Apollo 17 mission a series of metal foils and nuclear track detectors were exposed both in the sun and in the shade on the surface of the moon. Here we give the analysis of the mica detectors which were used to measure the flux of solar wind particles of Fe-group and heavier elements. These particles register as shallow pits after etching in hydrofluoric acid. Calibration experiments were performed to determine the registration properties of different ions and to simulate the lunar environment. We obtain an Fe-group flux of 39,000 per sec per sq cm, which together with the H flux measured on IMP-7 gives an Fe/H ratio of 0.000041. For elements with Z exceeding 45 we can set only an upper limit on the abundance, ruling out an overabundance of extremely heavy elements relative to iron by a factor of 4.

Zinner, E.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Fundamentals of heat measurement

Various methods and devices for obtaining experimental data on heat flux density over wide ranges of temperature and pressure are examined. Laboratory tests and device fabrication details are supplemented by theoretical analyses of heat-conduction and thermoelectric effects, providing design guidelines and information relevant to further research and development. A theory defining the measure of correspondence between transducer signal and the measured heat flux is established for individual (isolated) heat flux transducers subject to space and time-dependent loading. An analysis of the properties of stacked (series-connected) transducers of various types (sandwich-type, plane, and spiral) is used to derive a similarity theory providing general governing relationships. The transducers examined are used in 36 types of derivative devices involving direct heat loss measurements, heat conduction studies, radiation pyrometry, calorimetry in medicine and industry and nuclear reactor dosimetry.

Gerashchenko, O. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Heat transfer from impinging jets to a flat plate with conical and ring protuberances

An experimental investigation of heat transfer from round jets, impinging normally on a flat plate with exchangeable, heat transfer enhancing protuberances, has been carried out, and the pertinent literature surveyed, for Reynolds numbers ranging from 14,000 to 67,000, and nozzle diameters from 3.18 to 9.52 mm. The experimental data at the stagnation point indicated laminar flow, and a significant enhancement of heat transfer there, due to the introduction of the spike protuberance; the ring protuberance reduced the local heat flux somewhat. Data have also been correlated by means of dimensional analysis and compared with the conical flow theory.

Hrycak, P.↗