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At least 685 records · Page 38

Explainable machine learning model for multi-step forecasting of reservoir inflow with uncertainty quantification

We propose an explainable machine learning (ML) model with uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting. Traditional ML methods have challenges in forecasting inflows multiple days ahead, and lack explainability and UQ. To address these limitations, we introduce an encoder–decoder long short-term memory (ED-LSTM) network for multi-step forecasting, employ the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique for understanding the influence of hydrometeorological factors on inflow prediction, and develop a novel UQ method for prediction trustworthiness. We apply these methods to forecast 7-day inflow in snow-dominant and rain-driven reservoirs. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ED-LSTM model, with high forecasting accuracy for short lead times. Our UQ method provides reliable uncertainty estimates, covering 90% of data with a 90% confidence level. The SHAP analysis reveals the importance of historical inflow and precipitation as influential factors. These findings and methods may support reservoir operators in optimizing water resources management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fracture Mechanics Testing of Titanium 6AL-4V in LMP-103S Propellant

Propellant tank safe-life analysis is a spacecraft propulsion subsystem Launch Range processing requirement. The material property inputs for the safe-life analysis include the stress intensity factor for environment-assisted cracking (KEAC). The KEAC for titanium alloy Ti 6Al-4V in LMP-103S propellant was determined experimentally using an innovative test method following ASTM E1681, Standard Test Method for Determining Threshold Stress Intensity Factor for Environment-Assisted Cracking of Metallic Materials. This effort was a collaboration between NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and NASA Kennedy Space Center to expose the test specimens in the propellant, while loaded in the test fixtures, for 1000- hour (42 days) at 50°C. Two test rounds have been completed to date; 1) testing mechanically loaded specimens but without propellant and 2) testing mechanically loaded specimens wetted with LMP-103S propellant. The dry test was to evaluate the crack growth without exposure to the LMP-103S propellant, and further assess the un-wetted stress intensity factor for the full 1000-hour duration. The second round of testing included the propellant soak for the requisite 1000- hour at 50°C. Current results show that the threshold intensity factor for environment-assisted cracking (exposed to LMP103S) is 22.5 ksi√in for the bulk material and 36. 2 ksi√in for the weld material. A generic ‘candidate’ tank geometry and material thickness is developed for a damage tolerance of known surface cracks below the nondestructive inspection technique detection limit. Evaluations with and without the use of a threshold intensity factor for environment-assisted cracking is performed for the required 4x propellant tank service life using the software tool NASGRO. SP2024_00239

Green propulsion↗

Evaluating Failures and Near Misses in Human Spaceflight History for Lessons for Future Human Spaceflight

There have been a number of studies done in the past drawn on lessons learned with regard to human loss-of-life events. Generally, the systemic causes and proximate causes for fatal events have both been examined in considerable detail. However, an examination of near-fatal accidents and failures that narrowly missed being fatal could be equally useful, not only in detecting causes, both proximate and systemic, but also for determining what factors averted disaster, what design decisions and/or operator actions prevented catastrophe. Additionally, review of risk factors for upcoming or future programs will often look at trending statistics, generally focusing on failure/success statistics. Unfortunately, doing so can give a skewed or misleading view of past reliability or a reliability that cannot be presumed to apply to a new program. One reason for this might be that failure/success criteria aren't the same across programs, but also that apparent success can hide systemic faults that, under other circumstances, can be fatal to a program with different parameters. A program with a number of near misses can look more reliable than a consistently healthy program with a single out-of-family failure and provide very misleading data if it is not examined in detail. This is particularly true for a manned space program where failure/success includes more than making a particular orbit. Augmenting reliability evaluations with this near miss data can provide insight and expand on the limitations of a strictly pass/fail evaluation. Even more importantly, a thorough understanding of these near miss events can identify conditions that prevented fatalities. Those conditions may be key to a programs reliability, but, without insight to the repercussions if such conditions were not in place, their importance may not be readily clear. As programs mature and political and fiscal responsibilities come to the fore, often there is considerable incentive to eliminate unnecessary conservatism, design margin, redundancy, operational support, testing, training, or safety oversight. An evaluation that demonstrates how these features and capabilities averted disaster can ensure processes that saved lives or missions are not discarded without appropriate review and understanding. Close examination of accidents that almost were can also highlight differences in design from one program to another, either justifying reliability comparisons or negating them. It can also provide considerable insight into how those saving factors were developed and implemented so that similar methods can be used to ensure appropriate life-saving and mission saving factors can be developed, even for a dissimilar space program. The lessons are appropriate for seasoned manned space programs and agencies, but crucial for untried agencies and organizations that are interested in sending man into space. The large body of publicly available near miss and accident data available provide invaluable insight into programmatic, technical, and even political issues that can be addressed before they impact safety. In this paper, we examine a number of these near misses and accidents and steps a program, agency, or potential spacefaring company might take to improve their chances of success and avoid mission or safety disasters using this data.

Barr, Stephanie↗

Novel Rosenbluth extraction framework for Compton form factors from deeply virtual exclusive experiments

We use a generalization of the Rosenbluth separation method for a model independent simultaneous extraction of the Compton Form Factors $\mathscr{H}$ and $\mathscr{E}$ from virtual Compton scattering data on an unpolarized target. A precise evaluation of $\mathscr{H}$ and $\mathscr{E}$ enabled by the proposed method, is the first step towards pinning down the distribution of angular momentum inside the proton.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Highly accelerated life testing (HALT): A review from a statistical perspective

Despite its use in one form or another for at least four decades, HALT and related techniques [e.g., highly accelerated-stress screening (HASS) and stress audits (HASA)] are not well understood within the statistical community and remain controversial. This largely reflects a conflict in motivation between engineers, testing under harsh conditions to discover and eliminate failure modes, and statisticians, taking a more cautious approach to develop quantitative estimates of parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF). Here, this review article will clarify HALT concepts and methods and explain where it fits within the universe of methods that involve the application of accelerating factors to compress the time required to evaluate or enhance product reliability. A major distinction is between methods such as HALT, a high-stress test-analyze-fix-test iterative process directed at improving reliability by discovering and fixing weak points in a design, and quantitative accelerated life testing (QALT), whose goal is the estimation of product life for a fixed design. We discuss methods such as physics of failure that offer some hope of bridging the gap between the qualitative nature of HALT, and purely quantitative statistical methods. We present a variety of engineering applications of HALT including metal fatigue, piping and pressure vessels, structural damage, radiation damage, and rotating machinery. We also discuss potential synergies between HALT and QALT, such as rapid identification, through HALT, of failure modes requiring quantitative analysis. For further study, extensive references to the applicable literature are provided as well as an appendix that describes related methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Delivery of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the microgravity environment

The microgravity environment presents several challenges for delivering effective cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Chest compressions must be driven by muscular force rather than by the weight of the rescuer's upper torso. Airway stabilization is influenced by the neutral body posture. Rescuers will consist of crew members of varying sizes and degrees of physical deconditioning from space flight. Several methods of CPR designed to accommodate these factors were tested in the one G environment, in parabolic flight, and on a recent shuttle flight. Methods: Utilizing study participants of varying sizes, different techniques of CPR delivery were evaluated using a recording CPR manikin to assess adequacy of compressive force and frequency. Under conditions of parabolic flight, methods tested included conventional positioning of rescuer and victim, free floating 'Heimlich type' compressions, straddling the patient with active and passive restraints, and utilizing a mechanical cardiac compression assist device (CCAD). Multiple restrain systems and ventilation methods were also assessed. Results: Delivery of effective CPR was possible in all configurations tested. Reliance on muscular force alone was quickly fatiguing to the rescuer. Effectiveness of CPR was dependent on technique, adequate restraint of the rescuer and patient, and rescuer size and preference. Free floating CPR was adequate but rapidly fatiguing. The CCAD was able to provide adequate compressive force but positioning was problematic. Conclusions: Delivery of effective CPR in microgravity will be dependent on adequate resuer and patient restraint, technique, and rescuer size and preference. Free floating CPR may be employed as a stop gap method until patient restraint is available. Development of an adequate CCAD would be desirable to compensate for the effects of deconditioning.

Barratt, M. R.↗

A comparison of quality factors and weighting factors for characterizing astronaut radiation exposures

Radiation exposures are typically characterized by two quantities. The first is the absorbed dose, or the energy deposited per unit mass for specific types of radiation passing through specified materials. The same amount of energy deposited in material by two different types of radiation, however, can result in two different levels of risk. Because of this, for the purpose of radiation protection operations, absorbed dose is modified by a second factor intended to normalize the risk associated with a given exposure. We present here an inter-comparison of methods for this modification. First is the radiation quality factor (Q), as defined by ICRP publication 60. This quantity is related functionally to the unrestricted linear energy transfer (LET) of a given radiation, and is multiplied by the absorbed dose to derive the dose equivalent (H). The second method for modifying absorbed dose is the radiation weighting factor, also given in ICRP-60, or as modified in NCRP report 115. To implement the weighting factor, the absorbed dose resulting from incidence of a particular radiation is multiplied by a factor assigned to that type of radiation, giving the equivalent dose. We compare calculations done based on identical fields of radiation representative of that encountered by the MIR space station, applying each of these two methods. c2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Center JSC↗

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A multilayer network analysis of Alzheimer's disease pathogenesis: Roles for p‐tau, synaptic peptides, and physical activity

INTRODUCTION: In the aging brain, cognitive abilities emerge from the coordination of complex pathways arising from a balance between protective lifestyle and environmental factors and accumulation of neuropathologies. METHODS: As part of the Rush Memory and Aging Project (n = 440), we measured accelerometer-based actigraphy, cognitive performance, and after brain autopsy, selected reaction monitoring mass spectrometry. Multilevel network analysis was used to examine the relationships among the molecular machinery of vesicular neurotransmission, Alzheimer's disease (AD) neuropathology, cognition, and late-life physical activity. RESULTS: Synaptic peptides involved in neuronal secretory function were the most influential contributors to the multilayer network, reflecting the complex interdependencies among AD pathology, synaptic processes, and late-life cognition. Older adults with lower physical activity evidenced stronger adverse relationships among phosphorylated tau peptides, markers of synaptic integrity, and tangle pathology. DISCUSSION: Network-based approaches simultaneously model interdependent biological processes and advance understanding of the role of physical activity in age-associated cognitive impairment. Highlights: Network-based approaches simultaneously model interdependent biological processes. Secretory synaptic peptides were influential contributors to the multilayer network. Older adults with lower physical activity had adverse relationships among pathology. There was interdependence among phosphorylated tau, synaptic integrity, and tangles. Network methods elucidate the role of physical activity in cognitive impairment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Particulate Fuel Modeling of MC 2 -3 using Iterative Local Spatial Self-shielding Method

We report a new spatial self-shielding method for particulate fuels has been developed based on disadvantage factors and implemented in the MC 2 -3 code. This method named the iterative local spatial self-shielding (ILSS) method considers the shadowing effect of randomly distributed particles on spatial self-shielding in particles through a homogenized composition region added outside the particle of interest at the center. The self-shielded cross sections of the central particle are determined iteratively since they are used in determining the cross sections of the homogenized composition region. The ILSS method was verified for infinite stochastic medium problems of single and multiple types of particles, VHTR unit cell problems, and HTTR assembly problems. The verification test results show that the ILSS method accurately predicts the stochastic particle shadowing effect and reaction rates in particles, whereas the regular array model and the stochastic collision probability method underpredict the particle shadowing effect and overestimate reaction rates in particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Mapping and Characterizing the Visual Impacts of the Existing US Wind Turbine Fleet

Visual impacts of wind turbines have been a persistent concern for wind energy development in the United States (US) for decades and remain a major source of project delays and cancellations. Assessments of visual impacts are frequently performed at a local scale for individual projects, but a comprehensive understanding of broader geographic patterns in visual impacts across the US is lacking. This paper presents a visual impact assessment of the existing land-based wind turbine fleet of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment combines geographic information systems and 3D simulation methods to account for key factors driving the visual magnitude of impacts from the installed turbines. The results indicate that, despite the deployment of approximately 70,000 turbines and over 144 gigawatts of land-based wind in the CONUS, the visual impacts are very small when measured as a proportion of land area, population, and sensitive visual resources. Nonetheless, visual impacts are not evenly distributed: people experience a concentrated share in a small number of natural settings, primarily including plains, prairies, and deserts. Finally, we find that although increased density of wind development consistently leads to visual impacts across a greater proportion of land, it does not always lead to impacts to a greater share of the population. These findings suggest that visual impacts from wind energy are generally well-mitigated across the CONUS to date but also highlight the need for a deeper understanding of landscape sensitivity and individual perceptions of wind turbines in the most heavily impacted natural settings.

3D simulation↗

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Direct-bonded diamond membranes for heterogeneous quantum and electronic technologies

Diamond has superlative material properties for a broad range of quantum and electronic technologies. However, heteroepitaxial growth of single crystal diamond remains limited, impeding integration and evolution of diamond-based technologies. Here, we directly bond single-crystal diamond membranes to a wide variety of materials including silicon, fused silica, sapphire, thermal oxide, and lithium niobate. Our bonding process combines customized membrane synthesis, transfer, and dry surface functionalization, allowing for minimal contamination while providing pathways for near unity yield and scalability. We generate bonded crystalline membranes with thickness as low as 10 nm, sub-nm interfacial regions, and nanometer-scale thickness variability over 200 by 200 μm 2 areas. We measure spin coherence times T 2 for nitrogen vacancy centers in 150 nm-thick bonded membranes of up to 623 ± 21 μs, suitable for advanced quantum applications. We demonstrate multiple methods for integrating high quality factor nanophotonic cavities with the diamond heterostructures, highlighting the platform versatility in quantum photonic applications. Furthermore, we show that our ultra-thin diamond membranes are compatible with total internal reflection fluorescence (TIRF) microscopy, which enables interfacing coherent diamond quantum sensors with living cells while rejecting unwanted background luminescence. The processes demonstrated herein provide a full toolkit to synthesize heterogeneous diamond-based hybrid systems for quantum and electronic technologies.

color center↗

Concurrent multi-peak Bragg coherent x-ray diffraction imaging of 3D nanocrystal lattice displacement via global optimization

Abstract In this paper we demonstrated a method to reconstruct vector-valued lattice distortion fields within nanoscale crystals by optimization of a forward model of multi-reflection Bragg coherent diffraction imaging (MR-BCDI) data. The method flexibly accounts for geometric factors that arise when making BCDI measurements, is amenable to efficient inversion with modern optimization toolkits, and allows for globally constraining a single image reconstruction to multiple Bragg peak measurements. This is enabled by a forward model that emulates the multiple Bragg peaks of a MR-BCDI experiment from a single estimate of the 3D crystal sample. We present this forward model, we implement it within the stochastic gradient descent optimization framework, and we demonstrate it with simulated and experimental data of nanocrystals with inhomogeneous internal lattice displacement. We find that utilizing a global optimization approach to MR-BCDI affords a reliable path to convergence of data which is otherwise challenging to reconstruct.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physics constrained unsupervised deep learning for rapid, high resolution scanning coherent diffraction reconstruction

By circumventing the resolution limitations of optics, coherent diffractive imaging (CDI) and ptychography are making their way into scientific fields ranging from X-ray imaging to astronomy. Yet, the need for time consuming iterative phase recovery hampers real-time imaging. While supervised deep learning strategies have increased reconstruction speed, they sacrifice image quality. Furthermore, these methods’ demand for extensive labeled training data is experimentally burdensome. Here, we propose an unsupervised physics-informed neural network reconstruction method, PtychoPINN, that retains the factor of 100-to-1000 speedup of deep learning-based reconstruction while improving reconstruction quality by combining the diffraction forward map with real-space constraints from overlapping measurements. In particular, PtychoPINN gains a factor of 4 in linear resolution and an 8 dB improvement in PSNR while also accruing improvements in generalizability and robustness. This blend of performance and computational efficiency offers exciting prospects for high-resolution real-time imaging in high-throughput environments such as X-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) and diffraction-limited light sources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Equation of motion coupled-cluster cumulant approach for intrinsic losses in x-ray spectra

We present an equation of motion coupled cluster approach for calculating and understanding intrinsic inelastic losses in core level x-ray absorption spectra (XAS). The method is based on a factorization of the transition amplitude in the time-domain, which leads to a convolution of an effective one-body spectrum and the core-hole spectral function. The spectral function characterizes these losses in terms of shake-up excitations and satellites, and is calculated using a cumulant representation of the core-hole Green’s function that includes non-linear corrections. The one-body spectrum also includes orthogonality corrections that enhance the XAS at the edge.

Rehr, John J.↗

Thermal conductivity of multilayer polymer-nanocomposite thin films

The development of electrical insulators that are thermally conducting is critical for thermal management applications in many advanced electronics and electrical devices. Here, we synthesized polymer nanocomposite (PNC) films composed of polymers [polyethylenimine, poly(vinylamine), poly(acrylic acid), and poly(ethylene oxide)] and dielectric fillers (montmorillonite clay and hexagonal boron nitride) by layer-by-layer technique. The cross-plane thermal conductivity (k⊥) of the film was measured by the 3ω method. The effect of various factors such as film growth, filler type, filler volume fraction, polymer chemical structures, and temperature on the thermal conductivity is reported. The k⊥ of PNCs with thickness from 37 nm to 1.34 μm was found to be in the range of 0.11 to 0.21 ± 0.02 W m−1 K−1. The k⊥ values were found to be lower than the constituent polymer matrix. The experimental result is compared with existing theoretical models of nanocomposite systems to get insight into heat transfer behavior in such layered films composed of dielectrics and polymers.

Physics↗

Effect of defocusing on the quality of quantum ghost images

The effect of defocusing due to the finite thickness of the crystal, in which parametric scattering occurs, on the spatial resolution of ghost images is considered. The necessary relationships are presented, and methods of levelling this distorting factor and improving the quality of ghost images are proposed. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗