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At least 685 records · Page 38

Unsupervised Clustering and Supervised Regression Learning to Select High Temperature Oxidation-Resistant Materials

High temperature oxidation and corrosion degradation mechanisms dictate the lifetime of materials critical to energy production. The combination of modeling and experimental approaches such as machine learning (ML) and data analytics, with sufficient experimental data, can accelerate the development of new materials while limiting its cost. In the present work, ML will be applied to two high temperature oxidation data libraries (Oak Ridge National Laboratory and National Air and Space Administration) that comprised of about 5000 mass change sample datasheets for a variety of materials and temperatures in dry air and air + 10 % H2O. A python code was developed to prepare the data for machine learning by collecting and formatting oxidation rate constants, alloy compositions and environment of exposure into a single data frame. Scikit-learn library and Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox within MathWorks were then used to perform unsupervised clustering and supervised regression learning. The impact of dataset distribution on the performance of the developed ML models was evaluated. Potential strategies to improve the predictions and enhance extrapolative capability of the previously trained model were investigated.

Romedenne, Marie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000317936561)↗

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗

Multivariate Testing of Sampling Techniques to Address Class Imbalance in Building Use Type Classification

This study addresses the challenges inherent in building use type classification, particularly focusing on the issue of class imbalance in the training datasets for machine learning classifiers. We comprehensively analyze the efficacy of various class-balancing sampling techniques. Employing Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian optimization, we evaluated the performance of multiple sampling methods, including Random Oversampling, Random Undersampling, SMOTE, Borderline-SMOTE, and ADASYN, across a dataset encompassing nine southeastern coastal states of the United States. Our findings reveal that simple random over- and undersampling techniques outperform more sophisticated methods. Additionally, we show inherent value in creating an imbalance in training data to effectively train a machine learning classifier for distinguishing between residential and nonresidential buildings. This study provides valuable guidance for future research on building use type classification research and lays essential groundwork for developing attribute-rich building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel↗

Comparative Evaluation of Control-Oriented Heavy Duty Vehicle Air Drag Coefficient Models

Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are a significant source of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, prompting solutions such as HDV platooning to mitigate these negative impacts through air drag reduction. The intervehicle distance in an HDV platoon needs to be carefully selected, such that the platoon-level energy efficiency and safety considerations can be well balanced. Underlying this problem lies in accurately modeling the relationship between HDV air drag coefficient and intervehicle distance. Through comprehensive evaluation and comparison, we analyze five control-oriented HDV air drag coefficient models, including the polynomial model, rational polynomial model, rational model, semi-quadratic model, and ridge model. Leveraging Scipy Curve-Fit toolbox and our previously compiled air drag coefficient datasets, we optimally identify the parameters inside each model. The calibrated models are then thoroughly evaluated via five complementary metrics. The comparison results reveal that the semi-quadratic model has the highest overall performance, while the widely adopted rational model only exhibits suboptimal performance.

Best, Micah↗

Inter-Domain Fusion for Enhanced Intrusion Detection in Power Systems: An Evidence Theoretic and Meta-Heuristic Approach

False alerts due to misconfigured or compromised intrusion detection systems (IDS) in industrial control system (ICS) networks can lead to severe economic and operational damage. However, research using deep learning to reduce false alerts often requires the physical and cyber sensor data to be trustworthy. Implicit trust is a major problem for artificial intelligence or machine learning (AI/ML) in cyber-physical system (CPS) security, because when these solutions are most urgently needed is also when they are most at risk (e.g., during an attack). To address this, the Inter-Domain Evidence theoretic Approach for Inference (IDEA-I) is proposed that reframes the detection problem as how to make good decisions given uncertainty. Specifically, an evidence theoretic approach leveraging Dempster–Shafer (DS) combination rules and their variants is proposed for reducing false alerts. A multi-hypothesis mass function model is designed that leverages probability scores obtained from supervised-learning classifiers. Using this model, a location-cum-domain-based fusion framework is proposed to evaluate the detector’s performance using disjunctive, conjunctive, and cautious conjunctive rules. The approach is demonstrated in a cyber-physical power system testbed, and the classifiers are trained with datasets from Man-In-The-Middle attack emulation in a large-scale synthetic electric grid. For evaluating the performance, we consider plausibility, belief, pignistic, and general Bayesian theorem-based metrics as decision functions. To improve the performance, a multi-objective-based genetic algorithm is proposed for feature selection considering the decision metrics as the fitness function. Finally, we present a software application to evaluate the DS fusion approaches with different parameters and architectures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Gaining Perspective on Unconventional Well Design Choices through Play-level Application of Machine Learning Modeling

The recent development of unconventional oil and gas (O&G) reservoirs has led to an abundant hydrocarbon supply, both domestically and globally. However, there is a continued push to develop new and innovative approaches to improve exploration and extraction efficiencies and overall well productivity moving forward. Substantial improvements in unconventional O&G development are expected through optimized well completion and stimulation strategies aimed at maximizing well productivity. Optimizing well designs will require tailoring to the distinctive geologic conditions present for any newly placed well. To better evaluate the impact of well design attributes and their associated interactions on productivity in a major unconventional play, multivariate machine learning-based models that use empirical datasets were developed. A gradient boosted regression tree (GBRT) algorithm was applied. GBRT has been narrowly investigated for O&G applications but enables straightforward parametric importance and influence evaluation, as well as assessment of parameter interaction effects. Models were trained on well design and locational parameters that serve as a proxy for variable geologic conditions to estimate two types of productivity indicator response variables strongly correlated to estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). The dataset utilized consists of over 7,000 well observations that cover the majority of the productive region of the Marcellus Shale. Model performance was evaluated and algorithm parameters tuned by analyzing the goodness-of-fit for simulated results against observed data in a cross-validation approach. Models were found capable of 73–79 percent prediction accuracy on held out testing data of gas equivalent production and can be used to inform future well design and placement decisions for increasing EUR per well and improving overall field-level recovery. Study results indicate that Marcellus well performance improves most with upscaling perforated interval lengths and water and proppant volumes per foot; but relative productivity improvements are spatially dependent across the play. Finally, optimal combinations of water and proppant on well performance were found to vary depending on well location, emphasizing the utility of data-driven models capable of broad application across a play of interest for informing tailored well design approaches prior to their field deployment.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km x 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

climate projection↗

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km by 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

general circulation model (GCM)↗

Expanding Biological Repository Data Available for Sharing and Knowledge Discovery

Biology has developed next-generation data science and alternative analytical approaches with methodologies which require principal investigator (PI) experimental assay data be re-used. This new approach involves mining multiple datasets at once from various hierarchical organizations of biological complexity, while concurrently evaluating how experimental factors affect endpoints of standard assays. The purpose of the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA) is to collect, curate, and make findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) all non-human space-relevant biological data. These data include mission metadata, subject metadata, assay metadata (parameters), raw and processed assay data, assay imagery, and subject-experienced telemetry (radiation, temperature, humidity, acoustics, vibrations). ALSDA has transformed to bring current biological repository data and all future collected data into this new scientific data mining reality. It has integrated into the ‘NASA Open Science’ group of projects to facilitate a suite of new tools and workflows to improve data accessibility and reusability by implementing data management plans, automating data submission agreements, and adopting the single-point-of-entry data submission portal, originally developed by NASA GeneLab. These systems required ALSDA to develop science assay configurations for the submission portal, capturing essential assay parameters according to established norms in each sub-field within biology. The submission portal expedites data collection by enhancing ease of PI data submission, providing a user interface and specificity for which data is to be submitted. ALSDA datasets are curated to maintain rich metadata, accuracy of datasets, data transparency, provenance, and additionally ensure data are machine-readable (e.g., R and Python languages). ALSDA integration with GeneLab and its analysis portals enable higher-order physiological-level datasets be mined in conjunction with -omics datasets. As ALSDA physiological-level datasets are published (micro-computed tomography, histology, intraocular pressure, hormonal assays, immunostaining, ultrasonography), the merging of hierarchical organizations of biological complexity from spaceflight will enable new knowledge discovery approaches.

Ryan T Scott↗

CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydropower Projection over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents a suite of hydropower projections for the conterminous United States (CONUS), derived from multiple downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) approaches, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). The resulting downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data are then used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), enabling simulations of projected future hydrologic responses across the CONUS. Simulated total runoff is subsequently employed to drive two hydropower models (WMP, now implemented as mosartwmpy-power, and WRES) to evaluate how climate change may affect future hydropower production for both federal and non-federal hydropower fleets. This dataset was developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, see Broman et al. (2024), Thurber et al. (2024), Kao et al. (2022), and Zhou et al. (2023).

Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Generation and evaluation of synthetic patient data

Background: Machine learning (ML) has made a significant impact in medicine and cancer research; however, its impact in these areas has been undeniably slower and more limited than in other application domains. A major reason for this has been the lack of availability of patient data to the broader ML research community, in large part due to patient privacy protection concerns. High-quality, realistic, synthetic datasets can be leveraged to accelerate methodological developments in medicine. By and large, medical data is high dimensional and often categorical. These characteristics pose multiple modeling challenges. Methods: In this paper, we evaluate three classes of synthetic data generation approaches; probabilistic models, classification-based imputation models, and generative adversarial neural networks. Metrics for evaluating the quality of the generated synthetic datasets are presented and discussed. Results: While the results and discussions are broadly applicable to medical data, for demonstration purposes we generate synthetic datasets for cancer based on the publicly available cancer registry data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Specifically, our cohort consists of breast, respiratory, and non-solid cancer cases diagnosed between 2010 and 2015, which includes over 360,000 individual cases. Conclusions: We discuss the trade-offs of the different methods and metrics, providing guidance on considerations for the generation and usage of medical synthetic data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Expanding Repository Data Available For Sharing and Knowledge Discovery

Some of the hardest space biology and space health challenges require data-intensive, bioinformatic, meta-analytical, and computer-assisted research approaches. These challenges include examining interdisciplinary space life science research across experiments and across interacting spaceflight hazards (radiation, altered gravity, confinement, hostile-closed environments, distance-duration from Earth). The approaches to confront these challenges involve mining multiple datasets simultaneously from various hierarchical organizations of biological complexity, all while concurrently evaluating how experimental design factors affect endpoints of standard assays. To enable this field, it is essential that principal investigators (PIs) submit data in a structure so it can be maximally re-used. The purpose of the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA) is to collect, curate, and make publicly available all non-human space-relevant biological data. ALSDA must also ensure data are open-access, and maximally findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). The scope of ALSDA data collected and submitted by PIs include subject and study design metadata, assay metadata parameters, raw and processed assay data, assay imagery/video, and subject-experienced mission data telemetry (radiation, temperature, humidity, acoustics, vibrations, etc.). ALSDA recently integrated into a collaborative group of Open Science projects to facilitate a suite of new tools and workflows that will improve data submission, accessibility, and reusability by implementing digital data submission agreements, and adopting the data management system originally developed by NASA GeneLab. ALSDA intends to bring current biological repository data and all future collected data into this new scientific data reuse reality. This new suite of tools will enable ALSDA to deploy a science curation system using scientific assay configurations for the data submission portal. It will capture essential assay parameters according to established standards in each sub-field within biology. The submission portal expedites data collection by enhancing ease of PI data submission, providing a user interface and specificity for which data is to be submitted. Data submissions can be brought into cutting-edge informatic analysis portals to enable mining of physiological, behavioral, biochemical, and imaging datasets in conjunction with ‘omics-level datasets. As ALSDA datasets are submitted, curated, and published (e.g., micro-computed tomography, histology, pulse oximetry, serum metabolites, magnetic resonance imaging, intraocular pressure, novel object recognition, etc.), the merging together of spaceflight data along this multi-hierarchical complexity of biology will enable informatics and data-intensive approaches resulting in knowledge discoveries across missions, space hazards, and biological disciplines.

Biology↗

Expanding Repository Data Available For Sharing And Knowledge Discovery

Some of the hardest space biology and space health challenges require data-intensive, bioinformatic, meta-analytical, and computer-assisted research approaches. These challenges include examining interdisciplinary space life science research across experiments and across interacting spaceflight hazards (radiation, altered gravity, confinement, hostile-closed environments, distance-duration from Earth). The approaches to confront these challenges involve mining multiple datasets simultaneously from various hierarchical organizations of biological complexity, all while concurrently evaluating how experimental design factors affect endpoints of standard assays. To enable this field, it is essential that principal investigators (PIs) submit data in a structure so it can be maximally re-used. The purpose of the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA) is to collect, curate, and make publicly available all non-human space-relevant biological data. ALSDA must also ensure data are open-access, and maximally findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). The scope of ALSDA data collected and submitted by PIs include subject and study design metadata, assay metadata parameters, raw and processed assay data, assay imagery/video, and subject-experienced mission data telemetry (radiation, temperature, humidity, acoustics, vibrations, etc.). ALSDA recently integrated into a collaborative group of Open Science projects to facilitate a suite of new tools and workflows that will improve data submission, accessibility, and reusability by implementing digital data submission agreements, and adopting the data management system originally developed by NASA GeneLab. ALSDA intends to bring current biological repository data and all future collected data into this new scientific data reuse reality. This new suite of tools will enable ALSDA to deploy a science curation system using scientific assay configurations for the data submission portal. It will capture essential assay parameters according to established standards in each sub-field within biology. The submission portal expedites data collection by enhancing ease of PI data submission, providing a user interface and specificity for which data is to be submitted. Data submissions can be brought into cutting-edge informatic analysis portals to enable mining of physiological, behavioral, biochemical, and imaging datasets in conjunction with ‘omics-level datasets. As ALSDA datasets are submitted, curated, and published (e.g., micro-computed tomography, histology, pulse oximetry, serum metabolites, magnetic resonance imaging, intraocular pressure, novel object recognition, etc.), the merging together of spaceflight data along this multi-hierarchical complexity of biology will enable informatics and data-intensive approaches resulting in knowledge discoveries across missions, space hazards, and biological disciplines.

life science↗

BioADAPT-MRC: adversarial learning-based domain adaptation improves biomedical machine reading comprehension task

ABSTRACT Motivation Biomedical machine reading comprehension (biomedical-MRC) aims to comprehend complex biomedical narratives and assist healthcare professionals in retrieving information from them. The high performance of modern neural network-based MRC systems depends on high-quality, large-scale, human-annotated training datasets. In the biomedical domain, a crucial challenge in creating such datasets is the requirement for domain knowledge, inducing the scarcity of labeled data and the need for transfer learning from the labeled general-purpose (source) domain to the biomedical (target) domain. However, there is a discrepancy in marginal distributions between the general-purpose and biomedical domains due to the variances in topics. Therefore, direct-transferring of learned representations from a model trained on a general-purpose domain to the biomedical domain can hurt the model’s performance. Results We present an adversarial learning-based domain adaptation framework for the biomedical machine reading comprehension task (BioADAPT-MRC), a neural network-based method to address the discrepancies in the marginal distributions between the general and biomedical domain datasets. BioADAPT-MRC relaxes the need for generating pseudo labels for training a well-performing biomedical-MRC model. We extensively evaluate the performance of BioADAPT-MRC by comparing it with the best existing methods on three widely used benchmark biomedical-MRC datasets—BioASQ-7b, BioASQ-8b and BioASQ-9b. Our results suggest that without using any synthetic or human-annotated data from the biomedical domain, BioADAPT-MRC can achieve state-of-the-art performance on these datasets. Availability and implementation BioADAPT-MRC is freely available as an open-source project at https://github.com/mmahbub/BioADAPT-MRC. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Good practices for documenting AI-based studies on energy and buildings

Artificial intelligence has transformed building science research over the past decade, with applications spanning energy modeling, energy prediction, HVAC optimization and controls, fault detection, and occupancy modeling. However, many studies lack adequate documentation of datasets, algorithms, training procedures, and validation methods. Building science research faces additional challenges including inconsistent evaluation metrics, limited generalizability across building types, climates, and significant gaps between experimental studies and deployed systems. This communication provides practical guidance for good practices in documenting and publishing AI-based research following established standards from the computer science and machine learning communities. By adopting frameworks such as Datasheets for Datasets, Model Cards, and standardized reproducibility checklists, researchers can ensure their work meets the rigorous documentation standards necessary for reproducible, comparable, and impactful building science research.

Hong, Tianzhen [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗