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NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2008

CME-Producing Precursors to the 2006 December 13 X-Flare

We revisit one of the largest explosions observed during the Hinode era, the X4.3 class event of 2006 Dec 13. We gain insight into the main eruption through study of two sub-C-class precursor eruptions, occurring within 12 hours of and originating from the same (or nearby) neutral line as the X-flare. The precursors share some features in common with the main eruption, and their lower energy and consequent slower development renders interpretation of these features easier to decipher than in the rapidly explosive main eruption. In addition, because the weak precursors occurred in a magnetically strong region, magnetic connections indicated by soft X-ray loops are readily visible in these cases, while such connections can be much less apparent in weaker-region eruptions. Hinode/SOT magnetograms indicate that photospheric magnetic dynamic activity in the "magnetic core" is the likely ultimate source of the eruptions. All the eruptions, however, produce Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that have wider spatial extent than the localized source region; this is a long-observed but puzzling phenomena, which can address directly here using the high-quality Hinode data. For the precursor eruptions, Hinode/XRT images show that the initial eruptions occur inside larger-scale magnetic structures that encompass the core. The exploding core field blows out this larger-scale structure, resulting in the CME having angular extent far exceeding that of the source-region core alone; this is the arch-arch-blowout scenario for CMEs of Moore & Sterling (2007). Similar processes occur in the main eruption, except that the much larger energy release in that eruption compared to the precursors results in much faster and larger-scale phenomena.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of these mixed results is discussed with respect to the source term estimates.

OMI SO2↗
NASA NTRS2017

Magnetic Flux Cancellation as the Trigger Mechanism of Solar Coronal Jets

Coronal jets are narrow eruptions in the solar corona, and are often observed in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-Ray images. They occur everywhere on the solar disk: in active regions, quiet regions, and coronal holes (Raouafi et al. 2016). Recent studies indicate that most coronal jets in quiet regions and coronal holes are driven by the eruption of a minifilament (Sterling et al. 2015), and that this eruption follows flux cancellation at the magnetic neutral line under the pre-eruption minifilament (Panesar et al. 2016). We confirm this picture for a large sample of jets in quiet regions and coronal holes using multithermal extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and line-of-sight magnetograms from the SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We report observations of 60 randomly selected jet eruptions. We have analyzed the magnetic cause of these eruptions and measured the base size and the duration of each jet using routines in SolarSoft IDL. By examining the evolutionary changes in the magnetic field before, during, and after jet eruption, we found that each of these jets resulted from minifilament eruption triggered by flux cancellation at the neutral line. In agreement with the above studies, we found our jets to have an average base diameter of 7600 +/- 2700 km and an average jet-growth duration of 9.0 +/- 3.6 minutes. These observations confirm that minifilament eruption is the driver and that magnetic flux cancellation is the primary trigger mechanism for nearly all coronal hole and quiet region coronal jet eruptions.

McGlasson, Riley A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Active Region Coronal Jets: Hidden-onset Jets

Solar quiet- and coronal-hole region coronal jets frequently clearly originate from erupting minifilaments, but active-region jets often lack an obvious erupting-minifilament source. We observe a coronal-jet-productive active region (AR), AR12824, over 2021 May 22 0–8 UT, primarily using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Array (AIA) EUV images and SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager magnetograms. Jets were concentrated in two locations in the AR: on the south side and on the northwest side of the AR’s lone large sunspot. The south-location jets are oriented so that we have a clear view of the jets’ origin low in the atmosphere: their source is clearly minifilaments erupting from locations showing magnetic flux changes/cancelations. After erupting a projected distance ~5ʹʹ away from their origin site, the minifilaments erupt outward onto far-reaching field as part of the jet’s spire, quickly losing their minifilament character. In contrast, the northwest-location jets show no clear erupting minifilament, but the source site of those jets are obscured along our line of sight by absorbing chromospheric material. EUV and magnetic data indicate that the likely source sites were ~15ʹʹ from where the we first see the jet spire; thus, an erupting minifilament would likely lose its minifilament character before we first see the spire. We conclude that such AR jets could work like non-AR jets, but the erupting-minifilament jet source is often hidden by obscuring material. Another factor is that magnetic eruptions making some AR jets carry only a harder-to-detect comparatively thin (∼1ʹʹ–2ʹʹ) minifilament “strand.” A full report appears in Sterling, Moore, & Panesar (2024, ApJ, 960, 109).

Alphonse C. Sterling↗
NASA NTRS2022

Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS1991

Sources of volcanic aerosols: Petrologic and volcanological constraints

Global climatic effects brought about by volcanism are related to the impact of volcanic gases and their derivative aerosols on the atmosphere, rather than the effects of volcanic ash. Evidence from both historic eruptions and polar ice cores indicate that volcanic sulfur gases are the dominant aerosol-forming component, resulting in produciton of a sulfuric acid-rich stratosphere aerosol that can have profound effects on the earth radiation budget over periods of a few years. Due to highly variable sulfur content of different magma types, the climatic effects do not relate simply to total erupted mass. There is a close relationship between volcanic sulfur yield to the atmospheric and hemispheric surface temperature decrease following an eruption, with up to 1 C surface temperature decrease indicated following a major volcanic event such as the 1815 Tambora eruption. While the erupted mass of HCl and HF is equal to or greater than that of sulfur gases in some volcanic events, the halogens do not form known aerosols nor are they abundant in ice core acidity layers. The early removal of halogens from eruption columns occurs by rain flushing and adsorption onto tephra particles, but the fate of halogens in the atmosphere following very large explosive eruptions is unknown. The CO2 flux to the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions is volumetrically one of the most important of the gas species, but owing to the huge size of the atmospheric reservoir of this gas, the volcanic contribution is likely to have negligible effects.

Sigurdsson, Haraldur↗
NASA NTRS1995

The initiation of coronal mass ejections by newly emerging magnetic flux

We present observational evidence that eruptions of quiescent filaments and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur as a consequence of the destabilization of large-scale coronal arcades due to interactions between these structures and new and growing active regions. Both statistical and case studies have been carried out. In a case study of a 'bulge' observed by the High-Altitude Observatory Solar Maximum Mission coronagraph, the high-resolution magnetograms from the Big Bear Solar Observatory show newly emerging and rapidly changing flux in the magnetic fields that apparently underlie the bugle. For other case studies and in the statistical work the eruption of major quiescent filaments was taken as a proxy for CME eruption. We have found that two thirds of the quiescent-filament-associated CMEs occurred after substantial amounts of new magnetic flux emerged in the vicinity of the filament. In addition, in a study of all major quiescent filaments and active regions appearing in a 2-month period we found that 17 of the 22 filaments that were associated with new active regions erupted and 26 of the 31 filaments that were not associated with new flux did not erupt. In all cases in which the new flux was oriented favorably for reconnection with the preexisting large-scale coronal arcades; the filament was observed to erupt. The appearance of the new flux in the form of new active regions begins a few days before the eruption and typically is still occurring at the time of the eruption. A CME initiation scenario taking account of these observational results is proposed.

Feynman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Writhe of Helical Structures in the Solar Corona

Context. Helicity is a fundamental property of magnetic fields, conserved in ideal MHD. In flux rope topology, it consists of twist and writhe helicity. Despite the common occurrence of helical structures in the solar atmosphere, little is known about how their shape relates to the writhe, which fraction of helicity is contained in writhe, and how much helicity is exchanged between twist and writhe when they erupt. Aims. Here we perform a quantitative investigation of these questions relevant for coronal flux ropes. Methods. The decomposition of the writhe of a curve into local and nonlocal components greatly facilitates its computation. We use it to study the relation between writhe and projected S shape of helical curves and to measure writhe and twist in numerical simulations of flux rope instabilities. The results are discussed with regard to filament eruptions and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Results. (1) We demonstrate that the relation between writhe and projected S shape is not unique in principle, but that the ambiguity does not affect low-lying structures, thus supporting the established empirical rule which associates stable forward (reverse) S shaped structures low in the corona with positive (negative) helicity. (2) Kink-unstable erupting flux ropes are found to transform a far smaller fraction of their twist helicity into writhe helicity than often assumed. (3) Confined flux rope eruptions tend to show stronger writhe at low heights than ejective eruptions (CMEs). This argues against suggestions that the writhing facilitates the rise of the rope through the overlying field. (4) Erupting filaments which are S shaped already before the eruption and keep the sign of their axis writhe (which is expected if field of one chirality dominates the source volume of the eruption), must reverse their S shape in the course of the rise. Implications for the occurrence of the helical kink instability in such events are discussed.

WRITHE↗
NASA NTRS1983

Lamb pulse observed in nature

It is shown that seismograms observed at Longmire, Washington, for four eruptions of Mt. St. Helens, those on May 18, June 13, August 7, and August 8, 1980, can be interpreted as Lamb pulses excited by a nearly vertical single force representing the counter force of the eruption. These data furnish reliable estimates of the impulse of the force K (time integral of the force), from which the total momentum and the kinetic energy, E, of the ejecta associated with the eruption can be estimated. The estimates made of K are 1.4 x 10 to the 19th, 1.4 x 10 to the 16th, 3.7 x 10 to the 15th, and 2.8 x 10 to the 15th dynes-sec for the four eruptions (given chronologically). The corresponding estimates for E range from 0.70 to 2.6 x 10 to the 23rd, 0.70 to 2.6 x 10 to the 20th, 1.9 x 10 to the 19th, and 1.4 to 5.3 x 10 to the 19th erg using values of ejecta velocity ranging from 100 to 375 m/sec. The ratio of K to the amplitude of the air wave excited by the eruption is found to be 20 to 40 times larger for the main event on May 18 than for the other events, indicating a significant difference in the eruptive mechanism. A digital seismograph in the vicinity of a volcano is shown to provide a simple means for quantifying the explosive power of a volcanic eruption.

Kanamori, H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Volcanism, global catastrophe and mass mortality

The effects of very large volcanic eruptions are well documented in many studies, mostly based on observations made on three historic eruptions, Laki 1783; Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883. Such eruptions have effects that are catastrophic locally and measurable globally, but it is not clear that even the largest volcanic eruptions have had global catastrophic effects, nor caused mass extinctions. Two different types of volcanic eruption were considered as likely to have the most serious widespread effects: large silicic explosive eruptions producing hundreds or thousands of cubic kilometers of pyroclastic materials, and effusive basaltic eruptions producing of approximately 100 cubic kilometers of lava. In both cases, the global effects are climatic, and attributable to production of stratospheric aerosols. Other possibilities need to be explored. Recent research on global change has emphasized the extreme sensitivity of the links between oceanic circulation, atmospheric circulation and climate. In particular, it was argued that the pattern of ocean current circulation (which strongly influences climate) is unstable; it may rapidly flip from one pattern to a different one, with global climatic consequences. If volcanism has been a factor in global environmental change and a cause of mass extinctions, it seems most likely that it has done so by providing a trigger to other processes, for example by driving oceanic circulation from one mode to another.

Francis, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Volcanoes and global catastrophes

The search for a single explanation for global mass extinctions has let to polarization and the controversies that are often fueled by widespread media attention. The historic record shows a roughly linear log-log relation between the frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions and the volume of their products. Eruptions such as Mt. St. Helens 1980 produce on the order of 1 cu km of tephra, destroying life over areas in the 10 to 100 sq km range, and take place, on the average, once or twice a decade. Eruptions producing 10 cu km take place several times a century and, like Krakatau 1883, destroy life over 100 to 1000 sq km areas while producing clear global atmospheric effects. Eruptions producting 10,000 cu km are known from the Quaternary record, and extrapolation from the historic record suggests that they occur perhaps once in 20,000 years, but none has occurred in historic time and little is known of their biologic effects. Even larger eruptions must also exist in the geologic record, but documentation of their volume becomes increasingly difficult as their age increases. The conclusion is inescapable that prehistoric eruptions have produced catastrophes on a global scale: only the magnitude of the associated mortality is in question. Differentiation of large magma chambers is on a time scale of thousands to millions of years, and explosive volcanoes are clearly concentrated in narrow belts near converging plate margins. Volcanism cannot be dismissed as a producer of global catastrophes. Its role in major extinctions is likely to be at least contributory and may well be large. More attention should be paid to global effects of the many huge eruptions in the geologic record that dwarf those known in historic time.

Simkin, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Life and Times of Supervolcanoes: Inferences from Long Valley Caldera

Cataclysmic eruptions of silicic magma from "supervolcanoes" are among the most awe-inspiring natural phenomena found in the geologic record, in terms of size, power, and potential hazard. Based on the repose intervals between eruptions of this magnitude, the magmas responsible for them could accumulate gradually in the shallow crust over time scales that may be in excess of a million years (Smith, 1979; Spera and Crisp, 1981; Shaw, 1985). Pre-eruption magma residence time scales can also be inferred from the age difference between eruption (i.e., using 40Ar/39Ar dating to determine the time when hot erupted material cools to below its Ar closure temperature, 200 to 600 degC) and early pre-eruption crystallization (i.e., zircon saturation temperatures; Reid et al., 1997). I will discuss observations from Long Valley a Quaternary volcanic center in California. Long Valley is a voluminous, dominantly silicic caldera system. Based on extensive dating of accessory minerals (e.g., U-Th-Pb dating of zircon and allanite) along with geochemical and isotopic data we find that silicic magmas begin to crystallize 10's to 100's of thousands of years prior to their eruption and that rhyolites record episodes of punctuated and independent evolution rather than the periodic tapping of a long-lived magma. The more punctuated versus more gradual magma accumulation rates required by the absolute and model ages, respectively, imply important differences in the mass and heat fluxes associated with the generation, differentiation, and storage of voluminous rhyolites and emphasize the need to reconcile the magmatic age differences.

Simon, Justin↗
NASA NTRS2019

Hinode and SDO Observations of a Two-Sided-Loop Coronal Jet: Toward a General Picture for Jets

Most of the commonly discussed solar coronal jets are of the type consisting of a single spire extending approximately vertically from near the solar surface into the corona. Recent research of a substantial number of events shows that eruption of a miniature filament (minifilament) drives at least many such single-spire jets, and concurrently generates a miniflare at the eruption site. A different type of coronal jet, identified in X-ray images during the Yohkoh era, are two-sided-loop jets, which extend from a central excitation location in opposite directions, along two opposite low-lying coronal loops that are more-or-less horizontal to the surface. We observe such a two-sided-loop jet from the edge of active region (AR) 12473, using data from Hinode XRT and EIS, and SDO AIA and HMI. Similar to single-spire jets, this two-sided-loop jet results from eruption of a minifilament, which accelerates to over 140 km/s before abruptly stopping upon striking overlying nearly horizontal magnetic field at ∼30,000 km altitude and producing the two-sided-loop jet via interchange reconnection. Analysis of EIS raster scans show that a hot brightening, consistent with a small flare, develops in the aftermath of the eruption, and that Doppler motions (∼40 km/s) occur near the jet-formation region. As with many single-spire jets, the trigger of the eruption here is apparently magnetic flux cancelation, which occurs at a rate of ∼4×10^18 Mx/hr, comparable to the rate observed in some single-spire AR jets. This example of a two-sided jet, along with numerous examples of single-spire jets, supports that essentially all coronal jets result from eruptions of minifilaments, and frequently the eruption of the minifilament is triggered by magnetic flux cancelation. This work was supported by the NASA HGI program, and the MSFC Hinode project. (Details are in Sterling et al. 2019, ApJ, 871, 220.)

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2021

From Pseudostreamer Jets to Coronal Mass Ejections:: Observations of the Breakout Continuum

The magnetic breakout model, in which reconnection in the corona leads to destabilization of a filament channel, explains numerous features of eruptive solar events, from small-scale jets to global-scale coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The underlying multipolar topology, pre-eruption activities, and sequence of magnetic-reconnection onsets (first breakout, then flare) of many observed fast CMEs/eruptive flares are fully consistent with the model. Recently, we have demonstrated that most observed coronal-hole jets in fan/spine topologies also are induced by breakout reconnection at the null point above a filament channel (with or without a filament).For these two types of eruptions occurring in similar topologies, the key question is, why do some events generate jets while others form CMEs? We focused on the initiation of eruptions in large bright points/small active regions that were located in coronal holes and clearly exhibited null-point (fan/spine) topologies: such configurations are referred to as pseudostreamers. We analyzed and compared SDO/AIA,SOHO/LASCO, and RHESSI observations of three events. Our analysis of the events revealed two new observable signatures of breakout reconnection prior to the explosive jet/CME outflows and flare onset: coronal dimming and the opening-up of field lines above the breakout current sheet. Most key properties were similar among the selected erupting structures, thereby eliminating region size, photospheric field strength, magnetic configuration, and pre-eruptive evolution as discriminating factors between jets and CMEs. We consider the factors that contribute to the different types of dynamic behavior, and conclude that the determining factor is the ratio of the magnetic free energy associated with the filament channel compared to the energy associated with the overlying flux inside and outside the pseudostreamer dome. Our results imply that a pseudostreamer eruption must be fast in order to produce an interplanetary CME.

Sun↗
NASA NTRS2021

CME Magnetic Structure and IMF Preconditioning Affecting SEP Transport

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are two manifestations of the various solar phenomena that are known to cause severe space weather effects throughout the heliosphere. The evolution of CMEs after eruption, especially in terms of their magnetic structure, and the configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that influences the transport of SEPs are currently areas of active research. These two aspects are not necessarily independent of each other, especially during solar maximum when multiple eruptive events can occur close in time. Accordingly, we present in this work theanalysis of a CME that erupted from the Sun on 2012 May 11 (SOL2012-05-11) and an SEP event following an eruption that took place on 2012 May 17 (SOL2012-05-17),∼20◦in both latitude and longitude away from the May 11 CME source region. After observing in detailthe eruption and early evolution of the May 11 CME using remote-sensing data from three viewpoints, we evaluate its propagation through interplanetary space using several models.Then, we analyse in-situ measurements from five predicted impact locations (Venus, Earth, the Spitzer Space Telescope, the Mars Science Laboratory en route to Mars, and Mars) in the inner heliosphere in order to search for CME signatures. We find that all five in-situlocations detect signatures of an impulsive SEP event, which we trace back to the May 17 eruption. These findings suggest that the May 11 CME, which was crossing the various locations around the time of the May 17 eruption, provided a direct magnetic connectivityfor the efficient transport of SEPs with an impulsive profile. We discuss the space weather implications of CME evolution, regarding in particular its magnetic structure, and CME-driven IMF preconditioning that facilitates SEP transport from a later event. Finally, this work remarks the importance of the availability of data from multiple spacecraft, even those that do not include space weather research as their primary objective.

Erika Palmerio↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS1974

An atlas of volcanic ash

Volcanic ash samples collected from a variety of recent eruptions were studied, using petrography, chemical analyses, and scanning electron microscopy to characterize each ash type and to relate ash morphology to magma composition and eruption type. The ashes are best placed into two broad genetic categories: magnetic and hydrovolcanic (phreatomagmatic). Ashes from magmatic eruptions are formed when expanding gases in the magma form a froth that loses its coherence as it approaches the ground surface. During hydrovolcanic eruptions, the magma is chilled on contact with ground or surface waters, resulting in violent steam eruptions. Within these two genetic categories, ashes from different magma types can be characterized. The pigeon hole classification used here is for convenience; there are eruptions which are driven by both phreatic and magmatic gases.

Heiken, G.↗