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DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing process-based models to predict current and future soil organic carbon stocks at high-resolution

From hillslope to small catchment scales (< 50 km 2 ), soil carbon management and mitigation policies rely on estimates and projections of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Here we apply a process-based modeling approach that parameterizes the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model with SOC measurements and remotely sensed environmental data from the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in SW Idaho, USA. Calibrating model parameters reduced error between simulated and observed SOC stocks by 25%, relative to the initial parameter estimates and better captured local gradients in climate and productivity. The calibrated parameter ensemble was used to produce spatially continuous, high-resolution (10 m 2 ) estimates of stocks and associated uncertainties of litter, microbial biomass, particulate, and protected SOC pools across the complex landscape. Here, subsequent projections of SOC response to idealized environmental disturbances illustrate the spatial complexity of potential SOC vulnerabilities across the watershed. Parametric uncertainty generated physicochemically protected soil C stocks that varied by a mean factor of 4.4 × across individual locations in the watershed and a – 14.9 to + 20.4% range in potential SOC stock response to idealized disturbances, illustrating the need for additional measurements of soil carbon fractions and their turnover time to improve confidence in the MIMICS simulations of SOC dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Programmatic Impact of SDRAM SEFI

The Elpida EDS5104(08)ABTA 512Mb SDRAM is examined for programmatic impact of SEE. Use cases for the devices including EDAC and mode register reload are examined. Results indicate some SEE mitigation methods require careful application to achieve system-level benefits, while some event types are essentially mitigated by the application use. In the studied devices MBE and SEFI are identified and investigated as mechanisms requiring special consideration.

Single Event Functionality Interrupt (SEFI)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulated Multipath Using Software Generated GPS Signals

Depending on the environment, multipath can be one of the largest error sources contributing to degradation in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) (e.g., GPS) performance. Multipath is a phenomenon that occurs as radio signals reflect off of surfaces, such as buildings, producing multiple copies of the original signal. When this occurs with GPS signals, it results in one or more delayed signals arriving at the receiver with or without the on-time/direct GPS signal. The receiver measures the composite of these signals which, depending on the severity of the multipath, can substantially degrade the accuracy of the receiver's calculated position. Multipath is commonly experienced in cities due to tall buildings and its mitigation is an ongoing area of study. This research demonstrates a novel approach for simulating GPS multipath through the modification of an open-source tool, GPS-SDR-SIM. The resulting additional testing capability could allow for improved development of multipath mitigating technologies. Currently, open-source tools for simulating GPS signals are available and can be used in the testing and evaluation of GPS receiver equipment. These tools can generate GPS signals that, when used by a GPS receiver, result in computation of a position solution that was pre-determined at the time of signal generation. That is, the signals produced are properly formed for the pre-determined location and result in the receiver reporting that position. This allows for a GPS receiver under test to be exposed to various simulated locations and conditions without having to be physically subjected to them. Additionally, while these signals are generated by a software simulation, they can be processed by real or software defined GPS receivers. This work utilizes the GPS-SDR-SIM software tool for GPS signal generation and while this tool does implement some sources of error that are inherent to GPS, it cannot inject multipath. GPS-SDR-SIM was modified in this effort to produce additional copies of signals with pre-determined delays. These additional delayed signals mimic multipath and represent what happens to GPS signals in the real world as they reflect off of surfaces and arrive at a receiver in place of or alongside the direct GPS signal. A successful proof of concept was prototyped and demonstrated using this modified version of GPS-SDR-SIM to produce simulated GPS signals as well as additional simulated multipath signals. The generated data was processed using a software defined GPS receiver and it was found that the introduction of simulated multipath signals successfully produced the expected characteristics of a composite multipath signal. Further maturation of this work could allow for the development of a GPS receiver testing and evaluation framework and aid in the development of multipath mitigating technologies.

GPS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Divertor Plasma Detachment Control Neural Network

DivControlNN is a state-of-the-art software tool that leverages advanced machine learning techniques to predict and control divertor plasma behavior in fusion reactors. Plasma, a highly energetic and electrically charged gas, requires meticulous management to protect reactor components and maintain optimal energy production. Conventional simulation methods, although extremely detailed, typically demand extensive computational time-making them unsuitable for real-time control scenarios. DivControlNN addresses this challenge by learning from tens of thousands of high-fidelity simulations, thereby creating a rapid surrogate model that can deliver near-instantaneous predictions. At the core of its functionality is a sophisticated technique known as latent space mapping, which condenses complex, high-dimensional plasma data into a compact, lower-dimensional representation. This streamlined representation enables the system to quickly forecast essential plasma properties and determine the precise conditions required for effective detachment. Detachment is a crucial process in which the plasma is cooled before reaching the divertor plates, thereby reducing heat loads and mitigating material erosion. In recent experiments conducted on the KSTAR tokamak in South Korea, DivControlNN successfully guided the detachment process without any fine-tuning-even when applied to a new tungsten divertor configuration. By achieving a computational speed-up of over one hundred million times compared to traditional simulation methods while maintaining low prediction errors, DivControlNN stands to significantly enhance real-time control and diagnostic capabilities in future fusion reactors. This breakthrough paves the way for safer, more reliable reactor operation and represents a major advancement toward realizing fusion energy as a practical, sustainable, and clean power source.

Xu, Xueqiao [Lawrence Livermore National Laborator↗

NASA NTRS2017

Validation of a Manually Oscillating Chair for In-The-Field Assessment of Dynamic Visual Acuity on Crewmembers Within Hours of Returning From Long-Duration Spaceflight

Long-duration spaceflight results in sensorimotor adaptations, which cause functional deficits during gravitational transitions, such as landing on a planetary surface after long-duration microgravity exposure. Both the vestibular system and the central nervous system are affected by gravitational transitions. These systems are responsible for coordinating head and eye movements via the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) and go through an adaptation period upon exposure to microgravity. Consequently, they must also re-adapt to Earth's gravitational environment upon landing. This re-adaptation causes decrements in gaze control and dynamic visual acuity, with crewmembers reporting oscillopsia and blurred vision caused by retinal slip, or the inability to keep an image focused on their retina. This is thought to drive motion sickness symptoms experienced by most crewmembers following landing. Retinal slip can be estimated by dynamic visual acuity (DVA); visual acuity while in motion. Previously, DVA has been assessed in the laboratory where subjects walked at 6.4 km/hr on a motorized treadmill. Using this method, Peters et al. (2011) found that DVA is worsened in astronauts by an average of 0.75 eye-chart lines one day after landing. However, it is believed that re-adaptation occurs quickly and that DVA might be worse immediately upon re-exposure to a gravitational environment. Since many crewmembers are unable to walk safely upon landing, it was necessary to develop a method for replicating the vertical head movements associated with walking. In addition, the use of a chair to imitate the head displacement caused by walking isolates eye-head interactions without allowing for trunk and lower-body compensation, as seen with treadmill walking (Mulavara & Bloomberg 2003). Therefore, a modality for assessing DVA in the field within a few hours of landing was developed. In this study, we validated the ability of a manually operated oscillating chair to reproduce the oscillatory frequency of walking on a treadmill. Healthy non-astronaut subjects (n=14) participated in one test session and completed three static (seated) and three dynamic (walking/oscillated) visual acuity tests. DVA was assessed using a motorized treadmill, an automated oscillating chair, and a manually operated chair, both developed in the Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC. The automated chair was motor-driven and set to oscillate vertically at 2 Hz with a vertical displacement of +/- 5 cm to simulate vertical translation while walking. The manually operated chair was oscillated vertically by a test operator to the beat of a metronome at 120 beats/min (2 Hz) and a vertical displacement of approximately +/- 5 cm. As the subject was oscillated, they were asked to discern the direction gap of Landolt-C optotypes of varying sizes and verbally reported the direction while an operator recorded their response using a gamepad. Subjects were outfitted with accelerometers (sampling rate = 128 Hz) on their head, trunk and lumbar spine. A fast Fourier transform was performed on the vertical trunk acceleration to compare the peak and spread of the distribution of oscillation frequencies for each oscillating condition. The spread of the frequency distribution for the manual chair was not significantly different from either the treadmill or the automated chair. However, all three conditions had similar non-zero standard error values, suggesting a variance in head movement frequency which may affect DVA. The average oscillation frequency of the manual chair (1.85 Hz) was significantly different (α=0.05) from that of treadmill walking (2.24 Hz), but not significantly different from that of the automated chair (1.85 Hz) and all three conditions had small standard errors (SEM = 0.04, 0.06, and 0.08 Hz for manual, treadmill, and automated respectively). This implies that both chairs oscillate at a frequency below that of treadmill walking, but are comparable to each other and reproducible across sessions. Additionally, DVA scores did not vary significantly across conditions. The smaller spread values of the oscillating chairs' frequencies indicated mitigation of variation induced by locomotor strategies, which enables better examination of the issue of VOR adaptation. Furthermore, due to the deconditioned state of crewmembers in the initial hours after landing, it is easier to transport a manual bouncing chair into the field and safer to perform a vision test while seated in a chair versus walking on a treadmill. Therefore, the manually oscillating chair has been deemed to meet and exceed the DVA testing capabilities previously obtained by treadmill walking.

Kreutzberg, G. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mitigation of the Brighter-fatter Effect in the LSST Camera

Abstract Thick, fully depleted charge-coupled devices are known to exhibit nonlinear behavior at high signal levels due to the dynamic behavior of charges collecting in the potential wells of pixels, called the brighter-fatter effect (BFE). The effect results in distorted images of bright calibration stars, creating a flux-dependent point-spread function that if left unmitigated, could make up a large fraction of the error budget in Stage IV weak-lensing (WL) surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In this paper, we analyze image measurements of flat fields and artificial stars taken at different illumination levels with the LSST Camera (LSSTCam) at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in order to quantify this effect in the LSSTCam before and after a previously introduced correction technique. We observe that the BFE evolves anisotropically as a function of flux due to higher-order BFEs, which violates the fundamental assumption of this correction method. We then introduce a new method based on a physically motivated model to account for these higher-order terms in the correction, and then we test the modified correction on both data sets. We find that the new method corrects the effect in flat fields better than it corrects the effect in artificial stars, which we suggest is the result of sub-pixel physics not included in this correction model. We use these results to define a new metric for the full-well capacity of our sensors and advise image processing strategies to further limit the impact of the effect on LSST WL science pathways.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mitigation of Engine Inlet Distortion Through Adjoint-Based Design

The adjoint-based design capability in FUN3D is extended to allow efficient gradient- based optimization and design of concepts with highly integrated aero-propulsive systems. A circumferential distortion calculation, along with the derivatives needed to perform adjoint-based design, have been implemented in FUN3D. This newly implemented distortion calculation can be used not only for design but also to drive the existing mesh adaptation process and reduce the error associated with the fan distortion calculation. The design capability is demonstrated by the shape optimization of an in-house aircraft concept equipped with an aft fuselage propulsor. The optimization objective is the minimization of flow distortion at the aerodynamic interface plane of this aft fuselage propulsor.

Ordaz, Irian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diagnosing nuclear power plant pipe wall thinning due to flow accelerated corrosion using a passive, thermal non-destructive evaluation method: Feasibility assessment via numerical experiments

Flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) in nuclear power plant pipes is one of the leading causes of accidents, fatalities, damage and outages. Current FAC identification methods employ expensive sensing technology and are “active” methods, where the response of the piping system to an externally-generated thermal, mechanical or optical excitation must be measured. As a result, these techniques require a disruptive and time-consuming setup. Here we propose a method that utilizes pipe surface temperature measurements to passively monitor for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning without the need for expensive equipment or post-installation setup time. This diagnostic method utilizes a simulation data-driven diagnostic model to estimate the amount of thickness reduction in a pipe based on changes in measured steady-state pipe temperatures. In order to reduce the computational burden of generating large, simulation-based datasets, the behavior of the insulation of the pipe was modeled using a suitably calibrated heat transfer boundary parameter. Additionally, global sensitivity analysis was performed to determine system parameter(s), such as the temperature of water flowing inside the pipe, which significantly affect the steady state pipe wall temperature and could cause errors in diagnosis. Two diagnostic models, one using only the change in steady-state temperature as an indicator for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning and the other using water temperature as an additional diagnostic model input were evaluated for their ability to estimate thickness reductions in a pipe using simulated pipe wall temperature data. For the numerical experiments conducted in this work, both models estimated wall thickness with errors within 0.5 mm, indicating that the proposed technique can potentially be used as a low-cost, first-pass method for FAC monitoring.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling optical systematics for the Taurus CMB experiment

We simulate a variety of optical systematics for Taurus, a balloon-borne cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarisation experiment, to assess their impact on large-scale E-mode polarisation measurements and constraints of the optical depth to reionisation τ. We model a one-month flight of Taurus from Wanaka, New Zealand aboard a super-pressure balloon (SPB). We simulate night-time scans of both the CMB and dust foregrounds in the 150 GHz band, one of Taurus's four observing bands. We consider a variety of possible systematics that may affect Taurus's observations, including non-gaussian beams, pointing reconstruction error, and half-wave plate (HWP) non-idealities. For each of these, we evaluate the residual power in the difference between maps simulated with and without the systematic, and compare this to the expected signal level corresponding to Taurus's science goals. Our results indicate that most of the HWP-related systematics can be mitigated to be smaller than sample variance by calibrating with Planck's TT spectrum and using an achromatic HWP model, with a preference for five layers of sapphire to ensure good systematic control. However, additional beam characterization will be required to mitigate far-sidelobe pickup from dust on larger scales.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Circumventing data imbalance in magnetic ground state data for magnetic moment predictions

Abstract Magnetic materials play a crucial role in the transition to more sustainable forms of energy and electric vehicles. There is an anticipated shortage in magnetic materials in the future, and as a result there is an urgent need to discover and design new magnetic materials. Computational magnetic material design using density functional theory is daunting because of the challenge in identifying magnetic ground states from a combinatorially large set of possibilities. Machine learning offers a path forward by enabling efficient surrogate models that can more readily enumerate these states, but there is a dearth of training data available, and what is available tends to be imbalanced with too much non-magnetic data. In this work we show that the discrete and previously tackled data imbalance that exists at the level of the magnetic ordering leads to an imbalanced continuous distribution with many zeros when the data is unraveled at the atomic magnetic moment level, which subsequently leads to models with low accuracy for magnetic properties. We mitigate this by using a two-part model framework. Our scheme is able to classify atoms into magnetic and non-magnetic with an F1 score and Matthew’s correlation coefficient (MCC) of ~91% and then to provide an implicit embedding representation that maps directly onto the magnitude of the magnetic moment with a mean absolute error of 0.1 μ B . Beyond screening for new magnetic materials, we demonstrate an additional practical use case of our scheme: the provision of good initial guesses for magnetic moments in first-principles electronic relaxations. Such initialization is shown to lead to faster convergence to configurations that lie closer to the ground state.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Miscalculation, Misperception and Risk Reduction

In the current security environment, the most likely wars for which the US and its allies must be prepared are wars against nuclear-armed states. Such wars bring unique risks of both vertical and horizontal escalation. Some are “accepted risks;” for example, the US may choose to escalate a conflict to clarify its commitment to an issue and defend its interest. Other are “unacceptable risks;” especially, the risk of miscalculation by the U.S. or an adversary. The focus here is on this latter category. Miscalculation is an error of judgment—the failure to accurately assess a situation. Miscalculation can result from hidden, incomplete, or ambiguous information, or from inaccurate processing of available information because of bias, overconfidence, denial, delusion, etc. Miscalculation is related to misperception. For some, they are synonymous. This paper characterizes the risks of miscalculation and introduces a discussion of a risk mitigation strategy.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2015

Crew-Aided Autonomous Navigation Project

Manual capability to perform star/planet-limb sightings provides a cheap, simple, and robust backup navigation source for exploration missions independent from the ground. Sextant sightings from spacecraft were first exercised in Gemini and flew as the loss-of-communications backup for all Apollo missions. This study seeks to procure and characterize error sources of navigation-grade sextants for feasibility of taking star and planetary limb sightings from inside a spacecraft. A series of similar studies was performed in the early/mid-1960s in preparation for Apollo missions, and one goal of this study is to modernize and update those findings. This technique has the potential to deliver significant risk mitigation, validation, and backup to more complex low-TRL automated systems under development involving cameras.

Holt, Greg↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Creating Formal Characterizations ofRoutine Contingency Management inCommercial Aviation

Traditional approaches to safety management focus on collection of data describing unwanted states (i.e., accidents and incidents) and analysis of undesired behaviors (i.e., faults and errors) that precede those states. Thus, in the traditional view of safety, safety is both defined and measured by its absence, namely the lack of safety. In extremely high confidence systems like commercial air transport, however, opportunities to measure the absence of safety are relatively rare. Ironically, a critical barrier to measuring safety and the impact of mitigation strategies in commercial aviation is the lack of opportunities for measurement.

Intelligent Contingency Management,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

NASA NTRS2011

Automatic Facial Expression Recognition and Operator Functional State

The prevalence of human error in safety-critical occupations remains a major challenge to mission success despite increasing automation in control processes. Although various methods have been proposed to prevent incidences of human error, none of these have been developed to employ the detection and regulation of Operator Functional State (OFS), or the optimal condition of the operator while performing a task, in work environments due to drawbacks such as obtrusiveness and impracticality. A video-based system with the ability to infer an individual's emotional state from facial feature patterning mitigates some of the problems associated with other methods of detecting OFS, like obtrusiveness and impracticality in integration with the mission environment. This paper explores the utility of facial expression recognition as a technology for inferring OFS by first expounding on the intricacies of OFS and the scientific background behind emotion and its relationship with an individual's state. Then, descriptions of the feedback loop and the emotion protocols proposed for the facial recognition program are explained. A basic version of the facial expression recognition program uses Haar classifiers and OpenCV libraries to automatically locate key facial landmarks during a live video stream. Various methods of creating facial expression recognition software are reviewed to guide future extensions of the program. The paper concludes with an examination of the steps necessary in the research of emotion and recommendations for the creation of an automatic facial expression recognition program for use in real-time, safety-critical missions.

Blanson, Nina↗

NASA NTRS2012

Automatic Facial Expression Recognition and Operator Functional State

Blanson, Nina↗