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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and prediction of intersection traffic violations using automated enforcement system data

We report that the automated enforcement system (AES) is an effective way of supplementing traditional traffic enforcement, and the traffic violation data from AES can also be effectively used for safety research. In this study, traffic violation data were used to analyze the influencing factors associated with traffic violations and to predict the probability of violations at intersections. The potential factors influencing violations include 24 independent factors related to time, space, traffic and weather. Results from a logistic model showed that the midday period, weekends, residential districts, collector roads, congested traffic conditions, high traffic flow, lower wind speed and low temperature would increase the probability of traffic violations. The probability of violations was predicted by the random forest algorithm, which was proven to be the best traffic violation prediction model among logistic regression, Gaussian naive Bayes, and support vector machine. Moreover, the proximity weighted synthetic oversampling technique (ProWSyn) method was applied to reduce the impact of the imbalance ratio (IR) and improve the model’s prediction performance. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and Precision-Recall (PR) curves illustrated that the random forest algorithm using oversampling data had the best classifier prediction performance than undersampling data. The area under curve (AUC) and out-of-bag (OOB) error with IR = 1 reached 0.914 and 0.0787, which showed the better performance of the random forest algorithm using ProWSyn in dealing with imbalanced traffic violation data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing correlated truncation errors in modern nucleon-nucleon potentials

We test the BUQEYE model of correlated effective field theory (EFT) truncation errors on Reinert, Krebs, and Epelbaum's semilocal momentum-space implementation of the chiral EFT (𝜒⁢EFT ) expansion of the nucleon-nucleon (NN) potential. This Bayesian model hypothesizes that dimensionless coefficient functions extracted from the order-by-order corrections to NN observables can be treated as draws from a Gaussian process (GP). We combine a variety of graphical and statistical diagnostics to assess when predicted observables have a 𝜒⁢EFT convergence pattern consistent with the hypothesized GP statistical model. Our conclusions are that, first, the BUQEYE model is generally applicable to the potential investigated here, which enables statistically principled estimates of the impact of higher EFT orders on observables. Second, parameters defining the extracted coefficients such as the expansion parameter 𝑄 must be well chosen for the coefficients to exhibit a regular convergence pattern—a property we exploit to obtain posterior distributions for such quantities. Third, the assumption of GP stationarity across lab energy and scattering angle is not generally met; this necessitates adjustments in future work. We provide a workflow and interpretive guide for our analysis framework, and show what can be inferred about probability distributions for 𝑄, the EFT breakdown scale Λ 𝑏 , the scale associated with soft physics in the 𝜒⁢EFT potential 𝑚 eff , and the GP hyperparameters. All our results can be reproduced using a publicly available Jupyter notebook, which can be straightforwardly modified to analyze other 𝜒⁢EFT NN potentials.

Bayesian methods↗
NASA NTRS2005

Reconfigurable Antennas for High Data Rate Multi-beam Communication Systems

High-speed (2-100 Mb/sec) wireless data communication - whether land- or satellite-based - faces a major challenge: high error rates caused by interference and unpredictable environments. A planar antenna system that can be reconfigured to respond to changing conditions has the potential to dramatically improve data throughput and system reliability. Moreover, new planar antenna designs that reduce array size, weight, and cost can have a significant impact on terrestrial and satellite communication system performance. This research developed new individually-reconfigurable planar antenna array elements that can be adjusted to provide multiple beams while providing increased scan angles and higher aperture efficiency than traditional diffraction-limited arrays. These new elements are microstrip spiral antennas with specialized tuning mechanisms that provide adjustable radiation patterns. We anticipate that these new elements can be used in both large and small arrays for inter-satellite communication as well as tracking of multiple mobile surface-based units. Our work has developed both theoretical descriptions as well as experimental prototypes of the antennas in both single element and array embodiments. The technical summary of the results of this work is divided into six sections: A. Cavity model for analysis and design of pattern reconfigurable antennas; B. Performance of antenna in array configurations for broadside and endfire operation; C. Performance of antenna in array configurations for beam scanning operation; D. Simulation of antennas in infinite phased arrays; E. Demonstration of antenna with commercially-available RF MEMS switches; F. Design of antenna MEMS switch combinations for direct simultaneous fabrication.

Bernhard, Jennifer T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convergent Manufacturing of Large-Scale Components for Nuclear Applications, via Additive Manufacturing and Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressing

Powder metallurgy (PM)–hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) has long been recognized as a powerful route for producing fully dense, near net shape metallic components. By consolidating powders under high temperature and pressure, HIP provides isotropic properties, uniform microstructures, and scalability to complex geometries that are vital for sectors such as aerospace, energy, and nuclear power. Yet despite these advantages, the technology has remained constrained by costly trial and error canister fabrication, limitations of conventional forging, and incomplete knowledge about how the canister design influences final part properties. Additive manufacturing (AM), by contrast, thrives on design freedom and geometric flexibility but struggles with speed, scalability, and cost when applied to very large structures. The research presented in this report investigated how a convergent manufacturing approach, combining AM with PM-HIP, can merge the strengths of both technologies, leveraging AM’s flexibility for canister design and HIP’s consolidation capability to deliver reliable, large, and complex parts. The work progressed through three case studies that built on one another in scale and complexity. Small cylindrical canisters fabricated by conventional methods, laser powder bed fusion, and directed energy deposition were filled with stainless steel powders and subjected to HIP. The resulting parts demonstrated near-full density and mechanical properties on par with wrought stainless steel, showing for the first time that AM canisters can be a direct substitute for conventional ones without sacrificing quality. The next step involved a medium-scale, noncentrosymmetric T-valve, which is an enclosed, multibranch geometry that tested the limits of AM + PM-HIP integration. The T-valve achieved predictable shrinkage and uniform densification, confirming feasibility for enclosed designs. However, this study also revealed oxide inclusions and interfacial challenges at the AM + HIP boundary, underscoring the critical importance of controlling interface chemistry and employing robust, in situ strategies, such as melt pool monitoring and thermal monitoring, coupled with nondestructive evaluation techniques such as x-ray computed tomography. Finally, the effort culminated in fabricating a large-scale impeller weighing nearly 2000 lb and spanning 5 ft in diameter. Produced via multirobot wire arc AM and hot isostatic pressed to near-full density, the impeller validated industrial-scale feasibility. Predictive models closely matched experimental shrinkage, tensile properties were spatially uniform across the component, and the AM + PM-HIP interface proved mechanically sound despite the presence of oxide-decorated prior particle boundaries. This large-scale demonstration is a major milestone, showing that hybrid AM + PM‑HIP can reliably deliver components at reactor-relevant scales. Collectively, these studies charted a logical pathway: small-scale work built scientific confidence, medium-scale work highlighted opportunities and challenges, and large-scale work proved industrial impact. The overarching conclusion of this report is that AM + PM-HIP should not be seen as a replacement for forging but as a complementary pathway that provides the US with flexibility, resilience, and new options for manufacturing nuclear-grade components. Looking ahead, several directions emerge as critical to sustaining progress. Predictive modeling must become faster, more accessible, and more accurate, with digital twins and machine learning reducing reliance on trial and error. Powders and alloys must be optimized for HIP, with improved cleanliness, reduced oxides, and tailored chemistries that enhance creep, fatigue, and irradiation resistance. Interfaces between AM and HIP regions must be better engineered through coatings, machining strategies, and surface treatments to mitigate oxide formation and ensure reliable bonding to explore opportunities for HIP of targeted compositional parts, as well as multimaterial HIP cladding applications. Monitoring and nondestructive evaluation need to expand, incorporating multimodal sensors, x-ray computed tomography, and real-time data integration through platforms such as Pelican. At the same time, the pathway to industrial adoption requires techno-economic analysis, machinability studies, and qualification frameworks aligned with industry and regulatory standards. Finally, workforce and academic engagement must be strengthened. Programs that train technicians and engineers for US Navy and US Department of Energy manufacturing challenges should be paired with academic partnerships to support fundamental research, with open sharing of non-export-controlled data to accelerate innovation and build the next generation of experts. In conclusion, this report demonstrates that hybrid AM + PM-HIP is scientifically viable and strategically important. By combining the design agility of AM with the consolidation strength of HIP and embedding modeling, monitoring, and workforce development, this approach provided a transformative new capability for US manufacturing. The path forward is clear: hybrid AM + PM-HIP is not just a promising research direction but is also potentially an industrially relevant pathway that can reshape how nuclear-grade components are designed, qualified, and deployed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2017

Comparison of Commonly-Used Microwave Radiative Transfer Models for Snow Remote Sensing

This paper reviews four commonly-used microwave radiative transfer models that take different electromagnetic approaches to simulate snow brightness temperature (T(sub B)): the Dense Media Radiative Transfer - Multi-Layer model (DMRT-ML), the Dense Media Radiative Transfer - Quasi-Crystalline Approximation Mie scattering of Sticky spheres (DMRT-QMS), the Helsinki University of Technology n-Layers model (HUT-nlayers) and the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS). Using the same extensively measured physical snowpack properties, we compared the simulated T(sub B) at 11, 19 and 37 GHz from these four models. The analysis focuses on the impact of using different types of measured snow microstructure metrics in the simulations. In addition to density, snow microstructure is defined for each snow layer by grain optical diameter (Do) and stickiness for DMRT-ML and DMRT-QMS, mean grain geometrical maximum extent (D(sub max)) for HUT n-layers and the exponential correlation length for MEMLS. These metrics were derived from either in-situ measurements of snow specific surface area (SSA) or macrophotos of grain sizes (D(sub max)), assuming non-sticky spheres for the DMRT models. Simulated T(sub B) sensitivity analysis using the same inputs shows relatively consistent T(sub B) behavior as a function of Do and density variations for the vertical polarization (maximum deviation of 18 K and 27 K, respectively), while some divergences appear in simulated variations for the polarization ratio (PR). Comparisons with ground based radiometric measurements show that the simulations based on snow SSA measurements have to be scaled with a model-specific factor of Do in order to minimize the root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and simulated T(sub B). Results using in-situ grain size measurements (SSA or D(sub max), depending on the model) give a mean T(sub B) RMSE (19 and 37 GHz) of the order of 16-26 K, which is similar for all models when the snow microstructure metrics are scaled. However, the MEMLS model converges to better results when driven by the correlation length estimated from in-situ SSA measurements rather than D(sub max) measurements. On a practical level, this paper shows that the SSA parameter, a snow property that is easy to retrieve in-situ, appears to be the most relevant parameter for characterizing snow microstructure, despite the need for a scaling factor.

Snow↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid QSTS Simulations for High-Resolution Comprehensive Assessment of Distributed PV

The rapid increase in penetration of distributed energy resources on the electric power distribution system has created a need for more comprehensive interconnection modeling and impact analysis. Unlike conventional scenario-based studies, quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations can realistically model time-dependent voltage controllers and the diversity of potential impacts that can occur at different times of year. However, to accurately model a distribution system with all its controllable devices, a yearlong simulation at 1-second resolution is often required, which could take conventional computers a computational time of 10 to 120 hours when an actual unbalanced distribution feeder is modeled. This computational burden is a clear limitation to the adoption of QSTS simulations in interconnection studies and for determining optimal control solutions for utility operations. The solutions we developed include accurate and computationally efficient QSTS methods that could be implemented in existing open-source and commercial software used by utilities and the development of methods to create high-resolution proxy data sets. This project demonstrated multiple pathways for speeding up the QSTS computation using new and innovative methods for advanced time-series analysis, faster power flow solvers, parallel processing of power flow solutions and circuit reduction. The target performance level for this project was achieved with year-long high-resolution time series solutions run in less than 5 minutes within an acceptable error.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

diffReplication - An Energy-Aware Fault Tolerance Model for Silent Error Detection and Mitigation in Heterogeneous Extreme-scale Computing Environment

At extreme scale, the frequency of silent errors – a class of errors that remain undetected by low-level error detection mechanisms – increases significantly with the computational complexity of the application and the scale of the computing infrastructure. As hardware and software advances are made to usher in the next scientific era of computing, developing new approaches to mitigate the impact of silent errors remains a challenging problem. In this work, we propose an energy-aware fault-tolerance model, referred to diffReplication to overcome silent errors. In the proposed model, the main process is associated with one replica that executes at the same rate as the main process, and one diffReplica that is executed at a fraction of the main process' execution rate. If the main and its replica reach consensus at the end of a computation phase, the state of the diffReplica is updated and computation is resumed. If the synchronization attempt results in a disagreement, however, the diffReplica increases its execution speed to complete the computation and quickly reach the synchronization barrier. Assuming a single error over any given synchronization interval, a majority voting is used to reach consensus and tolerate silent errors. To further enhance its performance, diffReplication is augmented with speculative execution, whereby the main or its fast replica is selected to continue execution without waiting for the diffReplica. The selection process is based on the previous behaviour of the main and its replica. A performance analysis study is carried out to assess the performance of diffReplication, in terms of the energy saving and time-to-completion reduction achieved by the diffReplication scheme. The experiment shows that speculative execution reduces the time to completion with additional energy, and dynamic decision-making balances the energy consumption and time to completion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2014

Status of the NASA GMAO Observing System Simulation Experiment

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a pure modeling study used when actual observations are too expensive or difficult to obtain. OSSEs are valuable tools for determining the potential impact of new observing systems on numerical weather forecasts and for evaluation of data assimilation systems (DAS). An OSSE has been developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Errico et al 2013). The GMAO OSSE uses a 13-month integration of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 2005 operational model at T511/L91 resolution for the Nature Run (NR). Synthetic observations have been updated so that they are based on real observations during the summer of 2013. The emulated observation types include AMSU-A, MHS, IASI, AIRS, and HIRS4 radiance data, GPS-RO, and conventional types including aircraft, rawinsonde, profiler, surface, and satellite winds. The synthetic satellite wind observations are colocated with the NR cloud fields, and the rawinsondes are advected during ascent using the NR wind fields. Data counts for the synthetic observations are matched as closely as possible to real data counts, as shown in Figure 2. Errors are added to the synthetic observations to emulate representativeness and instrument errors. The synthetic errors are calibrated so that the statistics of observation innovation and analysis increments in the OSSE are similar to the same statistics for assimilation of real observations, in an iterative method described by Errico et al (2013). The standard deviations of observation minus forecast (xo-H(xb)) are compared for the OSSE and real data in Figure 3. The synthetic errors include both random, uncorrelated errors, and an additional correlated error component for some observational types. Vertically correlated errors are included for conventional sounding data and GPS-RO, and channel correlated errors are introduced to AIRS and IASI (Figure 4). HIRS, AMSU-A, and MHS have a component of horizontally correlated error. The forecast model used by the GMAO OSSE is the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DAS. The model version has been updated to v. 5.13.3, corresponding to the current operational model. Forecasts are run on a cube-sphere grid with 180 points along each edge of the cube (approximately 0.5 degree horizontal resolution) with 72 vertical levels. The DAS is cycled at 6-hour intervals, with 240 hour forecasts launched daily at 0000 UTC. Evaluation of the forecasting skill for July and August is currently underway. Prior versions of the GMAO OSSE have been found to have greater forecasting skill than real world forecasts. It is anticipated that similar forecast skill will be found in the updated OSSE.

OSSE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quasi-Steady Simulation of Glaze Ice Accretion and Heat Transfer in the Supercooled Large Droplet Regime in Atmospheric Turbulent Air Flow

Abstract To avoid the use of a computationally intensive full unsteady simulation while providing an accurate solution, a quasi-steady simulation has been performed to study glaze and mixed ice accretion in the supercooled large droplet (SLD) regime in turbulent flow of atmospheric air. We have attempted to find the minimum time-step necessary to adequately simulate the icing process on an airfoil surface. Based on node displacement, a mesh morphing scheme has been adopted in the computations to account for the moving boundaries that are caused by the continuous ice buildup. We have modeled ice accretion on an airfoil surface for a time period of 232 s using several time steps. At each time-step we solved the steady-state conservation equations for the air and droplet phases and then used the results as initial conditions for the next time position. The magnitude of the time-step ranged from a least accurate two-shot simulation (where the time-step is 116 s) to a most accurate 2320-shot simulation (where the time-step is 0.1 s). In-between these two extreme time steps, we have performed a three-shot simulation (where the time-step is 77.33 s), a four-shot simulation (where the time-step is 58 s), a six-shot simulation (where the time-step is 38.67 s), a 46-shot simulation (where the time-step is 5 s), and a 232-shot simulation (where the time-step is 1 s). We have done so to find out the degree of accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the multishot simulation approach and to find out the appropriate time-step needed for a successful and valid quasi-steady simulation. A valid quasi-steady simulation needs to use a time-step that is small enough to reproduce the full time-dependent solution within a very small error band. We have found that both the 1 s and the 0.1 s time steps produce virtually identical results. This is the primary litmus test that proves the validity of the quasi-steady-state assumption. The results adopted in this paper are thus all based on the more conservative 0.1 s time-step. In the process of performing the simulations, remeshing was required in order to maintain the grid density in zones of high curvature to be able to capture the full physics in those zones. After successfully modeling glaze ice accretion over the airfoil surface using the 0.1 s quasi-steady simulation approach, the effects of supercooled large droplets (SLDs) impacting the surface have been examined and presented in terms of the variation of the local collection efficiency, the water film thickness, and the heat transfer rate. Examination of the variation of the angle that the ice horn makes with the airfoil chord line demonstrated a 20% improvement in angle prediction when the time-step is reduced from 116 s to 0.1 s. The analysis also reveals a 12% or 8.5% increase in the maximum collection efficiency, βmax, depending on whether the value of the liquid water content (LWC) has been doubled from 0.5 g/m3 to 1 g/m3, or the value of the freestream velocity has been doubled from 75 m/s to 150 m/s, respectively. Because of the need to monitor the local collection efficiency and convective heat fluxes at each shot (regardless of the number of shots employed), the approach adopted here was found to be effective in successively and successfully reproducing the curvature of the glaze ice horn.

Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2005

Inference of Ice Cloud Properties from High-spectral Resolution Infrared Observations

The theoretical basis is explored for inferring the microphysical properties of ice crystal from high-spectral resolution infrared observations. A radiative transfer model is employed to simulate spectral radiances to address relevant issues. The extinction and absorption efficiencies of individual ice crystals, assumed as hexagonal columns for large particles and droxtals for small particles, are computed from a combination of the finite- difference time-domain (FDTD) technique and a composite method. The corresponding phase functions are computed from a combination of FDTD and an improved geometric optics method (IGOM). Bulk scattering properties are derived by averaging the single- scattering properties of individual particles for 30 particle size distributions developed from in situ measurements and for additional four analytical Gamma size distributions for small particles. The non-sphericity of ice crystals is shown to have a significant impact on the radiative signatures in the infrared (IR) spectrum; the spherical particle approximation for inferring ice cloud properties may result in an overest&ation of the optical thickness and an inaccurate retrieval of effective particle size. Furthermore, we show that the error associated with the use of the Henyey-Greenstein phase function can be as larger as 1 K in terms of brightness temperature for larger particle effective size at some strong scattering wavenumbers. For small particles, the difference between the two phase functions is much less, with brightness temperatures generally differing by less than 0.4 K. The simulations undertaken in this study show that the slope of the IR brightness temperature spectrum between 790-960/cm is sensitive to the effective particle size. Furthermore, a strong sensitivity of IR brightness temperature to cloud optical thickness is noted within the l050-1250/cm region. Based on this spectral feature, a technique is presented for the simultaneous retrieval of the visible optical thickness and effective particle size from high spectral resolution infrared data under ice cloudy con&tion. The error analysis shows that the uncertainty of the retrieved optical thickness and effective particle size has a small range of variation. The error for retrieving particle size in conjunction with an uncertainty of 5 K in cloud'temperature, or a surface temperature uncertainty of 2.5 K, is less than 15%. The corresponding e m r in the uncertainty of optical thickness is within 5-2096, depending on the value of cloud optical thickness. The applicability of the technique is demonstrated using the aircraft-based High- resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) data from the Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) in 1996 and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Clouds Experiment (FIRE-ACE) in 1998.

Huang, Hung-Lung↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phonon-informed Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) Optimization for Crystalline Graphite and Beryllium Metal

Fast neutrons born from fission lose energy through scattering interactions in the process of slowing-down. As neutrons thermalize to the order of $k$ $b$ $T$ (where $k$ $b$ is the Boltzmann constant, and $T$ is the temperature of the medium), their de Broglie wavelength and energy approaches the order of inter-atomic spacing and quantized lattice vibrations, i.e., phonons. At thermal energies, the thermal scattering law (TSL), i.e., $S$($α, β$), captures crystal binding contributions to the total reaction rate, or cross section. This dimensionless material property describes the energy ($β$) and momentum ($α$) exchanges available in a medium. Currently, $S$($α, β$) is evaluated in the Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH) code for discrete inputs and stored as ENDF/B File 7 for 0-phonon elastic (MT 2) and n-phonon inelastic (MT 4) processes. Further processing recasts $S$($α, β$) into cumulative distribution functions for sampling post-collision scattering kinematics. In practice, interpolation schemes are employed to access data between tabulated values. An improvement to this juncture of the nuclear data pipeline is supplying cross sections on-the-fly (OTF), as has been developed for the un-resolved resonance region to minimize non-physical interpolation errors. This capability may improve simulation accuracy for accident and transient analyses, where rapidly varying changes in temperature and pressure are difficult to predict beforehand. To do so, deep artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be employed which collapse non-linear, complex data into a lightweight dictionary of neural weights and biases. This has been successfully demonstrated for the hydrogen in light water $S$($α, β$) dataset in the form of a Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) module. In this work, the NeTS framework is extended to consider the impact of material-dependent dynamical features on optimal neural pre-processing and architecture design decisions, such as number of neurons per hidden layer, residual skip connections and neural depth. New NeTS modules for crystalline graphite and beryllium metal illuminate a novel correlation between dynamical nonlinearity and optimal neural parametrization when deploying $S$($α, β$) on-the-fly.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2003

Variational Continuous Assimilation of TMI and SSM/I Rain Rates: Impact on GEOS-3 Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

We describe a variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall data using moisture and temperature tendency corrections as the control variable to offset model deficiencies. For rainfall assimilation, model errors are of special concern since model-predicted precipitation is based on parameterized moist physics, which can have substantial systematic errors. This study examines whether a VCA scheme using the forecast model as a weak constraint offers an effective pathway to precipitation assimilation. The particular scheme we exarnine employs a '1+1' dimension precipitation observation operator based on a 6-h integration of a column model of moist physics from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system DAS). In earlier studies, we tested a simplified version of this scheme and obtained improved monthly-mean analyses and better short-range forecast skills. This paper describes the full implementation ofthe 1+1D VCA scheme using background and observation error statistics, and examines how it may improve GEOS analyses and forecasts of prominent tropical weather systems such as hurricanes. Parallel assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd show that assimilating 6-h TMI and SSM/I surfice rain rates leads to more realistic storm features in the analysis, which, in turn, provide better initial conditions for 5-day storm track prediction and precipitation forecast. These results provide evidence that addressing model deficiencies in moisture tendency may be crucial to making effective use of precipitation information in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real space iterative reconstruction for vector tomography (RESIRE-V)

Tomography has had an important impact on the physical, biological, and medical sciences. To date, most tomographic applications have been focused on 3D scalar reconstructions. However, in some crucial applications, vector tomography is required to reconstruct 3D vector fields such as the electric and magnetic fields. Over the years, several vector tomography methods have been developed. Here, we present the mathematical foundation and algorithmic implementation of REal Space Iterative REconstruction for Vector tomography, termed RESIRE-V. RESIRE-V uses multiple tilt series of projections and iterates between the projections and a 3D reconstruction. Each iteration consists of a forward step using the Radon transform and a backward step using its transpose, then updates the object via gradient descent. Incorporating with a 3D support constraint, the algorithm iteratively minimizes an error metric, defined as the difference between the measured and calculated projections. The algorithm can also be used to refine the tilt angles and further improve the 3D reconstruction. To validate RESIRE-V, we first apply it to a simulated data set of the 3D magnetization vector field, consisting of two orthogonal tilt series, each with a missing wedge. Our quantitative analysis shows that the three components of the reconstructed magnetization vector field agree well with the ground-truth counterparts. We then use RESIRE-V to reconstruct the 3D magnetization vector field of a ferromagnetic meta-lattice consisting of three tilt series. Our 3D vector reconstruction reveals the existence of topological magnetic defects with positive and negative charges. We expect that RESIRE-V can be incorporated into different imaging modalities as a general vector tomography method. To make the algorithm accessible to a broad user community, we have made our RESIRE-V MATLAB source codes and the data freely available at https://github.com/minhpham0309/RESIRE-V.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Short-Term Deformation in the Central Valley Using Machine Learning

Land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater pumping in Central Valley, California, is a major issue that has several negative impacts such as reduced aquifer storage and damaged infrastructures which, in turn, produce an economic loss due to the high reliance on crop production. This is why it is of utmost importance to routinely monitor and assess the surface deformation occurring. Two main goals that this paper attempts to accomplish are deformation characterization and deformation prediction. The first goal is realized through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to a series of Interferomtric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images that produces eigenimages displaying the key characteristics of the subsidence. Water storage changes are also directly analyzed by the use of data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The second goal is accomplished by building a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict short-term deformation after developing an InSAR time series using LiCSBAS, an open-source InSAR time series package. The model is applied to the city of Madera and produces better results than a baseline averaging model and a one dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a mean squared error metric showing the effectiveness of machine learning in deformation prediction as well as the potential for incorporation in hazard mitigation models. The model results can directly aid policy makers in determining the appropriate rate of groundwater withdrawal while maintaining the safety and well-being of the population as well as the aquifers’ integrity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conflicts of Greens’ in Renewable Energy Landscapes: Case Studies and a Planning Framework

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) through renewable energy deployment is a goal for many cities and nations to mitigate the effects of a rapidly changing climate while securing energy needs. Given national and state level policies on green energy to achieve GHG reduction targets, localities are considering utility-scale renewable energy (USRE) facilities on remote lands, rural areas, oceans, coastal waters and large rivers to meet the energy needs for urban residents and industries. Although these USRE facilities generate much “greener” electricity than fossil fuel power plants, locating them can pose conflicts with wildlife, including endangered, threatened and/or special status species, and the habitats that support wildlife populations (Brunette et al., 2013; Gasparatos et al. 2016; Mulvaney 2017), which lead to a “Conflict of Greens” (Ko et al., 2011). In addition to ecological impacts, conflicts over social and cultural resources in local communities lead to concerns over environmental justice, in this context “energy justice,” where negative environmental, social, and economic impacts of energy projects fall more heavily upon marginalized, vulnerable, or indigenous communities. The Pacific Rim region is a center of major and growing economies, and it has become a battlefield for competing “green” objectives. In addition to progressive renewable energy goals, such as in California, Hawaii, and Taiwan, countries around the Pacific Rim have the majority of the growth in manufacturing of wind and solar energy devices and also some of the highest levels of renewables deployment with China, India, and the US leading the way in wind and solar installations. Developing renewable energy source in the ocean such as offshore wind, tidal, and wave energy, are beginning to add to this mix. Given this challenge, the APRU SCL energy working group provides six case studies that address questions about the “Conflict of Greens” across the Pacific Rim including South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States (California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts). The literature review highlights the emerging ecological, social, and economic aspects of conflicts over siting renewables on the landscape. Using case studies, we examine the trial and errors in least-conflict spatial planning, data collection and analysis, public participation in decision-making, mitigation, social planning for energy transitions, and multi-scalar approaches. Lastly, we recommend interdisciplinary policy, planning, and design actions for sustainable energy landscapes across the Pacific Rim and beyond.

green versus green, renewable energy↗