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Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Software models: A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in the Jelenski-Moranda software reliability model

Maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability model often give misleading answers. A reparameterization and a Bayesian analysis eliminate some of the problems incurred by MLE methods and often give better predictions on sets of real and simulated data. Practical difficulties in estimating the initial number of errors N and the failure rate of each error phi by the method of maximum likelihood are: N, the MLE of N, is occasionally infinite (i.e., the routines for calculating N and phi do not converge). It is shown that N is finite sub i only if the regression line of the interevent times t sub i vs. i has positive slope. A serious problem is that often N approximates n, the sample size, and sometimes N = n. Thus the MLE predicts that the program is perfect even when it is far from being so. Only when almost all failures have been removed can N and phi be trusted near the end of debugging.

Littlewood, B.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Improved method of analyzing hot-wire measurements in supersonic turbulence

The present analysis method for hot-wire data in supersonic turbulence takes sound field effects into account and yields greater accuracy in its treatment of flow variable fluctuations than existing methods despite requiring only a moderately accurate estimate of static pressure fluctuations. The method demonstrates the way in which neglecting pressure fluctuations will affect hot-wire data analysis, as well as indicating the probable direction the errors will take.

Logan, Pamela↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Error Modeling for Prompt Yield Estimation [Slides]

Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (MultiPEM) Toolbox provides a capability for post-detonation characterization focusing on yield estimation; Synthesize information from multiple sensor types; Leverage historical databases to inform statistical models; Allows for rapid or comprehensive analysis; Implemented in R code.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of a range estimator which uses MLS angle measurements

A concept that uses the azimuth signal from a microwave landing system (MLS) combined with onboard airspeed and heading data to estimate the horizontal range to the runway threshold is investigated. The absolute range error is evaluated for trajectories typical of General Aviation (GA) and commercial airline operations (CAO). These include constant intercept angles for GA and CAO, and complex curved trajectories for CAO. It is found that range errors of 4000 to 6000 feet at the entry of MLS coverage which then reduce to 1000-foot errors at runway centerline intercept are possible for GA operations. For CAO, errors at entry into MLS coverage of 2000 feet which reduce to 300 feet at runway centerline interception are possible.

Downing, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Point-Spread Function Modeling

We present the point-spread function (PSF) modeling for weak lensing shear measurement using the full six years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6) data. We review the PSF estimation procedure using the PIFF (PSFs In the Full FOV) software package and describe the key improvements made to PIFF and modeling diagnostics since the DES year three (Y3) analysis: (i) use of external Gaia and infrared photometry catalogs to ensure higher purity of the stellar sample used for model fitting, (ii) addition of color-dependent PSF modeling, the first for any weak lensing analysis, and (iii) inclusion of model diagnostics inspecting fourth-order moments, which can bias weak lensing measurements to a similar degree as second-order modeling errors. Through a comprehensive set of diagnostic tests, we demonstrate the improved accuracy of the Y6 models evident in significantly smaller systematic errors than those of the Y3 analysis, in which all g band data were excluded due to insufficiently accurate PSF models. For the Y6 weak lensing analysis, we include g band photometry data in addition to the riz bands, providing a fourth band for photometric redshift estimation. Looking forward to the next generation of wide-field surveys, we describe several ongoing improvements to PIFF, which will be the default PSF modeling software for weak lensing analyses for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1977

Applications of modern estimation techniques to aircraft navigation

Kalman filter design and analysis are discussed, and application of the analysis to multidimensional aircraft navigation problems is considered. The application of perturbation matrices, U-D factors, and filter variance component error source percentages to avionics covariance analysis is suggested. Filter design is divided into four phases, and the procedures applied in each phase are examined.

Bierman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Temperature dependence of attitude sensor coalignments on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM)

Results are presented on the temperature correlation of the relative coalignment between the fine pointing sun sensor (FPSS) and fixed head star trackers (FHSTs) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). This correlation can be caused by spacecraft electronic and mechanical effects. Routine daily measurements reveal a time dependent sensor coalignment variation. The magnitude of the alignment variation is on the order of 120 arc seconds (arc sec), which greatly exceeds the prelaunch thermal structural analysis estimate of 15 acr sec. Differences between FPSS-only and FHST-only yaw solutions as a function of mission day are correlated with the relevant spacecraft temperature. If unaccounted for, the sensor misalignments due to thermal effects are a significant source of error in attitude determination accuracy. Prominent sources of temperature variation are identified and correlated with the temperature profile observed on the SMM. It was determined that even relatively small changes in spacecraft temperature can affect the coalignments between the attitude hardware on the SMM and the science instrument support plate and that frequent recalibration of sensor alignments is necessary to compensate for this effect. An alterntive to frequent recalibration is to model the variation of alignments as a function of temperature and use this to maintain accurate ground or onboard alignment estimates. These flight data analysis results may be important consierations for prelaunch analysis of future missions.

Pitone, D. S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Image Learning

Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate for data arising from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) TV distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal, and conditional distributions. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, for which we extend Tyler’s robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop TV classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and TV analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age, and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated labeled faces of the wild dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1981

Adaptive Finite Element Technology in Integrated Design and Analysis

An assessment of the potential impact of adaptive finite element technology on the analysis part of the aircraft structural synthesis process is presented. The main conclusion is that adaptive application of the p-version of the finite element method based on indirect error estimation procedures results in substantial cost reduction and increased reliability of the computed data. Adaptivity based on direct a posteriori error estimation has the potential for additional savings.

Szabo, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Another Look at the Optimum Frequencies for a Water Vapor Radiometer

A water vapor radiometer is used to estimate the columnar content of atmospheric water vapor or equivalently the line-of-sight path delay due to water vapor. Two measurement channels are used in order to separate the effects of the liquid and vapor phases of water. The efficiency of the path delay or columnar vapor estimate is dependent on the choice of on-line frequency channel. Previous analysis of this problem has suggested frequencies from 20.3 to 21 GHz. The frequency that yields the minimum error in the inversion algorithm is shown here to be both site and season dependent. Hence, the concept of an optimum frequency must represent an averaging process over the entire range of meteorological conditions that is expected. For a range of sites and condition representing a cross section of the continental United States the optimum on-line frequency seems to be 20.6 GHz.

Resch, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Static calibration of the RSRA active-isolator rotor balance system

The Rotor Systems Research Aircraft (RSRA) active-isolator system is designed to reduce rotor vibrations transmitted to the airframe and to simultaneously measure all six forces and moments generated by the rotor. These loads are measured by using a combination of load cells, strain gages, and hydropneumatic active isolators with built-in pressure gages. The first static calibration of the complete active-isolator rotor balance system was performed in l983 to verify its load-measurement capabilities. Analysis of the data included the use of multiple linear regressions to determine calibration matrices for different data sets and a hysteresis-removal algorithm to estimate in-flight measurement errors. Results showed that the active-isolator system can fulfill most performance predictions. The results also suggested several possible improvements to the system.

Acree, C. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

Watkins, T., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Airborne gamma radiation soil moisture measurements over short flight lines

Results are presented on airborne gamma radiation measurements of soil moisture condition, carried out along short flight lines as part of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE). Data were collected over an area in Kansas during the summers of 1987 and 1989. The airborne surveys, together with ground measurements, provide the most comprehensive set of airborne and ground truth data available in the U.S. for calibrating and evaluating airborne gamma flight lines. Analysis showed that, using standard National Weather Service weights for the K, Tl, and Gc radiation windows, the airborne soil moisture estimates for the FIFE lines had a root mean square error of no greater than 3.0 percent soil moisture. The soil moisture estimates for sections having acquisition time of at least 15 sec were found to be reliable.

Peck, Eugene L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Biweekly Maps of Wind Stress for the North Pacific from the ERS-1 Scatterometer

The European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS-1) was launched in July 1991 and contained several instruments for observing the Earth's ocean including a wind scatterometer. The scatterometer measurements were processed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). JPL reprocessed (Freilich and Dunbar, 1992) the ERS-1 backscatter measurements to produced a 'value added' data set that contained the ESA wind vector as well as a set of up to four ambiguities. These ambiguities were further processed using a maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) and a median filter to produce a 'selected vector.' This report describes a technique developed to produce time-averaged wind field estimates with their expected errors using only scatterometer wind vectors. The processing described in this report involved extracting regions of interest from the data tapes, checking the quality and creating the wind field estimate. This analysis also includes the derivation of biweekly average wind vectors over the North Pacific Ocean at a resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. This was done with an optimal average algorithm temporally and an over-determined biharmonic spline spatially. There have been other attempts at creating gridded wind files from ERS-1 winds, e.g., kriging techniques (Bentamy et al., 1996) and successive corrections schemes (Tang and Liu, 1996). There are several inherent problems with the ERS-1 scatterometer. Since this is a multidisciplinary mission, the satellite is flown in different orbits optimized for each phase of the mission. The scatterometer also shares several sub-systems with the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and cannot be operated while the SAR is in operation. The scatterometer is also a single-sided instrument and only measures backscatter along the right side of the satellite. The processing described here generates biweekly wind maps during the wktwo years analysis period regardless of the satellite orbit or missing data.

SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR↗
NASA NTRS1999

Utilizing Multiple Datasets for Snow Cover Mapping

Snow-cover maps generated from surface data are based on direct measurements, however they are prone to interpolation errors where climate stations are sparsely distributed. Snow cover is clearly discernable using satellite-attained optical data because of the high albedo of snow, yet the surface is often obscured by cloud cover. Passive microwave (PM) data is unaffected by clouds, however, the snow-cover signature is significantly affected by melting snow and the microwaves may be transparent to thin snow (less than 3cm). Both optical and microwave sensors have problems discerning snow beneath forest canopies. This paper describes a method that combines ground and satellite data to produce a Multiple-Dataset Snow-Cover Product (MDSCP). Comparisons with current snow-cover products show that the MDSCP draws together the advantages of each of its component products while minimizing their potential errors. Improved estimates of the snow-covered area are derived through the addition of two snow-cover classes ("thin or patchy" and "high elevation" snow cover) and from the analysis of the climate station data within each class. The compatibility of this method for use with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, which will be available in 2000, is also discussed. With the assimilation of these data, the resolution of the MDSCP would be improved both spatially and temporally and the analysis would become completely automated.

Tait, Andrew B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Quantifying Errors in TRMM-Based Multi-Sensor QPE Products Over Land in Preparation for GPM

Determining uncertainties in satellite-based multi-sensor quantitative precipitation estimates over land of fundamental importance to both data producers and hydro climatological applications. ,Evaluating TRMM-era products also lays the groundwork and sets the direction for algorithm and applications development for future missions including GPM. QPE uncertainties result mostly from the interplay of systematic errors and random errors. In this work, we will synthesize our recent results quantifying the error characteristics of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Both systematic errors and total uncertainties have been analyzed for six different TRMM-era precipitation products (3B42, 3B42RT, CMORPH, PERSIANN, NRL and GSMap). For systematic errors, we devised an error decomposition scheme to separate errors in precipitation estimates into three independent components, hit biases, missed precipitation and false precipitation. This decomposition scheme reveals hydroclimatologically-relevant error features and provides a better link to the error sources than conventional analysis, because in the latter these error components tend to cancel one another when aggregated or averaged in space or time. For the random errors, we calculated the measurement spread from the ensemble of these six quasi-independent products, and thus produced a global map of measurement uncertainties. The map yields a global view of the error characteristics and their regional and seasonal variations, reveals many undocumented error features over areas with no validation data available, and provides better guidance to global assimilation of satellite-based precipitation data. Insights gained from these results and how they could help with GPM will be highlighted.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Detailed Uncertainty Analysis of the ZEM-3 Measurement System

The measurement of Seebeck coefficient and electrical resistivity are critical to the investigation of all thermoelectric systems. Therefore, it stands that the measurement uncertainty must be well understood to report ZT values which are accurate and trustworthy. A detailed uncertainty analysis of the ZEM-3 measurement system has been performed. The uncertainty analysis calculates error in the electrical resistivity measurement as a result of sample geometry tolerance, probe geometry tolerance, statistical error, and multi-meter uncertainty. The uncertainty on Seebeck coefficient includes probe wire correction factors, statistical error, multi-meter uncertainty, and most importantly the cold-finger effect. The cold-finger effect plagues all potentiometric (four-probe) Seebeck measurement systems, as heat parasitically transfers through thermocouple probes. The effect leads to an asymmetric over-estimation of the Seebeck coefficient. A thermal finite element analysis allows for quantification of the phenomenon, and provides an estimate on the uncertainty of the Seebeck coefficient. The thermoelectric power factor has been found to have an uncertainty of +9-14 at high temperature and 9 near room temperature.

Seebeck effect↗