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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Accessing Martian Fluvial and Lacustrine Sediments by Landing in Holden Crater, Margaritifer Sinus

Rover missions to the surface of Mars after MER 2003, are likely to be centered around focused geologic field mapping. One objective with high priority in selecting landing sites for these missions will be to characterize the nature, spatial distribution, internal structure, composition, and depositional history of exposed sedimentary layered deposits by visiting a number of distributed outcrops identified previously (and with a high degree of certainty) from orbit. These deposits may contain prebiotic material, even fossil organisms, but their primary value will be to enable an assessment of the planet's climate at the time they were emplaced. High resolution imaging from a mobile rover will enable the detailed study of these deposits over a wide area, their internal structure and mineralogy at distributed localities, and could resolve biologically-derived structures (such as stromatolite-like textures) if they are present. With the addition of a spectrometer, it should be possible to ascertain the presence of carbonates, sulfates, organics, water (liquid, frost, and bound water), as well as a variety of silicate minerals in the context of the collected imagery. Such a mission approach is directly relevant to future exploration of Mars, because it provides the geologic context comparable to what a field geologist visiting a site for the first time would acquire. Rover missions after MER will likely have much better targeting and hazard avoidance landing systems, enabling access to planimetrically-challenged sites of high scientific interest. These vehicles will also likely have greater mobility than MER, capable of driving greater distances in a shorter amount of time. Many scientists and mission planners have realized the need to design a rover whose mobility can be comparable to the dimensions of its 3-sigma landing error ellipse.

Parker, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Geodesy by radio interferometry - Determinations of baseline vector, earth rotation, and solid earth tide parameters with the Mark I very long baseline radio interferometery system

Thirty-seven very long baseline radio interferometry experiments performed between 1972 and 1978 are analyzed and estimates of baseline vectors between six sites, five in the continental United States and one in Europe are derived. No evidence of significant changes in baseline length is found. For example, with a statistical level of confidence of approximately 85 percent, upper bounds on such changes within the United States ranged from a low of 10 mm/yr for the 850 km baseline between Westford, Massachusetts, and Green Bank, West Virginia, to a high of 90 mm/yr for the nearly 4000 km baseline between Westford and Goldstone, California. Estimates for universal time and for the x component of the position of the earth's pole are obtained. For the last 15 experiments, the only ones employing wideband receivers, the root-mean-square differences between the derived values and the corresponding ones published by the Bureau International de l'Heure are 0.0012 s and 0.018 arc sec respectively. The average value obtained for the radial Love number for the solid earth is 0.62 + or - 0.02 (estimated standard error).

Ryan, J. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS1991

The behavior of quantization spectra as a function of signal-to-noise ratio

An expression for the spectrum of quantization error in a discrete-time system whose input is a sinusoid plus white Gaussian noise is derived. This quantization spectrum consists of two components: a white-noise floor and spurious harmonics. The dithering effect of the input Gaussian noise in both components of the spectrum is considered. Quantitative results in a discrete Fourier transform (DFT) example show the behavior of spurious harmonics as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). These results have strong implications for digital reception and signal analysis systems. At low SNRs, spurious harmonics decay exponentially on a log-log scale, and the resulting spectrum is white. As the SNR increases, the spurious harmonics figure prominently in the output spectrum. A useful expression is given that roughly bounds the magnitude of a spurious harmonic as a function of the SNR.

Flanagan, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Decoder synchronization for deep space missions

The Consultative Committee for Space Data Standards (CCSDS) recommends that space communication links employ a concatenated, error-correcting, channel-coding system in which the inner code is a convolutional (7,1/2) code and the outer code is a (255,223) Reed-Solomon code. The traditional implementation is to perform the node synchronization for the Viterbi decoder and the frame synchronization for the Reed-Solomon decoder as separate, sequential operations. This article discusses a unified synchronization technique that is required for deep space missions that have data rates and signal-to-noise ratios (SNR's) that are extremely low. This technique combines frame synchronization in the bit and symbol domains and traditional accumulated-metric growth techniques to establish a joint frame and node synchronization. A variation on this technique is used for the Galileo spacecraft on its Jupiter-bound mission.

Statman, J. I.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Scope of Gradient and Genetic Algorithms in Multivariable Function Optimization

Global optimization of a multivariable function - constrained by bounds specified on each variable and also unconstrained - is an important problem with several real world applications. Deterministic methods such as the gradient algorithms as well as the randomized methods such as the genetic algorithms may be employed to solve these problems. In fact, there are optimization problems where a genetic algorithm/an evolutionary approach is preferable at least from the quality (accuracy) of the results point of view. From cost (complexity) point of view, both gradient and genetic approaches are usually polynomial-time; there are no serious differences in this regard, i.e., the computational complexity point of view. However, for certain types of problems, such as those with unacceptably erroneous numerical partial derivatives and those with physically amplified analytical partial derivatives whose numerical evaluation involves undesirable errors and/or is messy, a genetic (stochastic) approach should be a better choice. We have presented here the pros and cons of both the approaches so that the concerned reader/user can decide which approach is most suited for the problem at hand. Also for the function which is known in a tabular form, instead of an analytical form, as is often the case in an experimental environment, we attempt to provide an insight into the approaches focusing our attention toward accuracy. Such an insight will help one to decide which method, out of several available methods, should be employed to obtain the best (least error) output. *

Shaykhian, Gholam Ali↗
NASA NTRS1986

Force-free magnetic fields - The magneto-frictional method

The problem under discussion is that of calculating magnetic field configurations in which the Lorentz force j x B is everywhere zero, subject to specified boundary conditions. We choose to represent the magnetic field in terms of Clebsch variables in the form B = grad alpha x grad beta. These variables are constant on any field line so that each field line is labeled by the corresponding values of alpha and beta. When the field is described in this way, the most appropriate choice of boundary conditions is to specify the values of alpha and beta on the bounding surface. We show that such field configurations may be calculated by a magneto-frictional method. We imagine that the field lines move through a stationary medium, and that each element of magnetic field is subject to a frictional force parallel to and opposing the velocity of the field line. This concept leads to an iteration procedure for modifying the variables alpha and beta, that tends asymptotically towards the force-free state. We apply the method first to a simple problem in two rectangular dimensions, and then to a problem of cylindrical symmetry that was previously discussed by Barnes and Sturrock (1972). In one important respect, our new results differ from the earlier results of Barnes and Sturrock, and we conclude that the earlier article was in error.

Yang, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An adaptive learning control system for large flexible structures

The objective of the research has been to study the design of adaptive/learning control systems for the control of large flexible structures. In the first activity an adaptive/learning control methodology for flexible space structures was investigated. The approach was based on using a modal model of the flexible structure dynamics and an output-error identification scheme to identify modal parameters. In the second activity, a least-squares identification scheme was proposed for estimating both modal parameters and modal-to-actuator and modal-to-sensor shape functions. The technique was applied to experimental data obtained from the NASA Langley beam experiment. In the third activity, a separable nonlinear least-squares approach was developed for estimating the number of excited modes, shape functions, modal parameters, and modal amplitude and velocity time functions for a flexible structure. In the final research activity, a dual-adaptive control strategy was developed for regulating the modal dynamics and identifying modal parameters of a flexible structure. A min-max approach was used for finding an input to provide modal parameter identification while not exceeding reasonable bounds on modal displacement.

Thau, F. E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Enhanced Fuel-Optimal Trajectory-Generation Algorithm for Planetary Pinpoint Landing

An enhanced algorithm is developed that builds on a previous innovation of fuel-optimal powered-descent guidance (PDG) for planetary pinpoint landing. The PDG problem is to compute constrained, fuel-optimal trajectories to land a craft at a prescribed target on a planetary surface, starting from a parachute cut-off point and using a throttleable descent engine. The previous innovation showed the minimal-fuel PDG problem can be posed as a convex optimization problem, in particular, as a Second-Order Cone Program, which can be solved to global optimality with deterministic convergence properties, and hence is a candidate for onboard implementation. To increase the speed and robustness of this convex PDG algorithm for possible onboard implementation, the following enhancements are incorporated: 1) Fast detection of infeasibility (i.e., control authority is not sufficient for soft-landing) for subsequent fault response. 2) The use of a piecewise-linear control parameterization, providing smooth solution trajectories and increasing computational efficiency. 3) An enhanced line-search algorithm for optimal time-of-flight, providing quicker convergence and bounding the number of path-planning iterations needed. 4) An additional constraint that analytically guarantees inter-sample satisfaction of glide-slope and non-sub-surface flight constraints, allowing larger discretizations and, hence, faster optimization. 5) Explicit incorporation of Mars rotation rate into the trajectory computation for improved targeting accuracy. These enhancements allow faster convergence to the fuel-optimal solution and, more importantly, remove the need for a "human-in-the-loop," as constraints will be satisfied over the entire path-planning interval independent of step-size (as opposed to just at the discrete time points) and infeasible initial conditions are immediately detected. Finally, while the PDG stage is typically only a few minutes, ignoring the rotation rate of Mars can introduce 10s of meters of error. By incorporating it, the enhanced PDG algorithm becomes capable of pinpoint targeting.

Acikmese, Behcet↗
NASA NTRS1995

EUV emission from a sample of Active Galactic Nuclei

Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) emit a substantial fraction of their total radiated power in the EUV passband, because spectroscopically this band is situated at or near the peak of the 'big blue bump,' which is bounded on either side by the UV and soft X-ray excesses. Owing to the lack of observational data, the shape of AGN spectra in the EUV is not well known. This paper presents broad band (65-190 eV) count rates of 11 AGN detected by the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). Assuming a power law spectral shape for the EUV and soft X-ray energies, we demonstrate that the photon indices of the sources are considerably steeper than typical AGN indices. For 6 sources where ROSAT data are available to provide a more precise determination of their spectral parameters in the 0.1-2.5 keV range, we have used these parameters to compute predicted EUVE count rates and compared them with the observed values. The two sets of quantities agree to within experimental error. We conclude that there is no evidence of spectral steepening or turn-over of the soft X-ray excess at EUV wavelengths for a sample of AGN which covers a wide range of brightness.

Lieu, R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Updated MISR Over-Water Research Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm - Part 2: A Multi-Angle Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm for Shallow, Turbid, Oligotrophic, and Eutrophic Waters

Coastal waters serve as transport pathways to the ocean for all agricultural and other runoff from terrestrial sources, and many are the sites for upwelling of nutrient rich, deep water; they are also some of the most biologically productive on Earth. Estimating the impact coastal waters have on the global carbon budget requires relating satellite-based remote-sensing retrievals of biological productivity (e.g., chlorophyll alpha concentration) to in situ measurements taken in near-surface waters. The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) can uniquely constrain the "atmospheric correction" needed to derive ocean color from remote-sensing imagers. Here, we retrieve aerosol amount and type from MISR over all types of water. The primary limitation is an upper bound on aerosol optical depth (AOD), as the algorithm must be able to distinguish the surface. This updated MISR research aerosol retrieval algorithm (RA) also assumes that light reflection by the underlying ocean surface is Lambertian. The RA computes the ocean surface reflectance (R (sub rs)) analytically for a given AOD, aerosol optical model, and wind speed. We provide retrieval examples over shallow, turbid, and eutrophic waters and introduce a productivity and turbidity index (PTI), calculated from retrieved spectral R (sub rs), that distinguished water types (similar to the the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI, over land). We also validate the new algorithm by comparing spectral AOD and Angstrom exponent (ANG) results with 2419 collocated AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations. For AERONET 558 nanometer-interpolated AOD less than 1.0, the root-mean square error (RMSE) is 0.04 and linear correlation coefficient is 0.95. For the 502 cloud-free MISR and AERONET collocations with an AERONET AOD greater than 0.20, the ANG RMSE is 0.25 and r is 0.89. Although MISR RA AOD retrieval quality does not appear to be substantially impacted by the presence of turbid water, the MISR-RA-retrieved Angstrom exponent seems to suffer from increased uncertainty under such conditions. MISR supplements current ocean color sources in regions where sunglint precludes retrievals from single-view-angle instruments. MISR atmospheric correction should also be more robust than that derived from single-view instruments such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This is especially true in regions of shallow, turbid, and eutrophic waters, locations where biological productivity can be high, and single-view-angle retrieval algorithms struggle to separate atmospheric from oceanic features.

Satellite Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS1990

An Ab Initio Study of the Low-Lying Doublet States of AgO and AgS

Spectroscopic constants (D(sub o), r(sub e), mu(sub e), T(sub e)) are determined for the doublet states of AgO and AgS below approx. = 30000/cm. Large valence basis sets are employed in conjunction with relativistic effective core potentials (RECPs). Electron correlation is included using the modified coupled-pair functional (MCPF) and multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) methods. The A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) - X(sup 2)Pi band system is found to occur in the near infrared (approx. = 9000/cm) and to be relatively weak with a radiative lifetime of 900 microns for A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) (upsilon = 0). The weakly bound C(sup 2)Pi state (our notation), the upper state of the blue system, is found to require high levels of theoretical treatment to determine a quantitatively accurate potential. The red system is assigned as a transition from the C(sup 2)Pi state to the previously unobserved A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) state. Several additional transitions are identified that should be detectable experimentally. A more limited study is performed for the vertical excitation spectrum of AgS. In addition, a detailed all-electron study of the X(sup 2)Pi and A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) states of AgO is carried out using large atomic natural orbital (ANO) basis sets. Our best calculated D(sub o) value for AgO is significantly less than the experimental value, which suggests that there may be some systematic error in the experimental determination.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Gamma guidance of trajectories for coplanar, aeroassisted orbital transfer

The optimization and guidance of trajectories for coplaner, aeroassisted orbital transfer (AOT) from high Earth orbit (HEO) to low Earth orbit (LEO) are examined. In particular, HEO can be a geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). It is assumed that the initial and final orbits are circular, that the gravitational field is central and is governed by the inverse square law, and that at most three impulses are employed: one at HEO exit, one at atmospheric exit, and one at LEO entry. It is also assumed that, during the atmospheric pass, the trajectory is controlled via the lift coefficient. The presence of upper and lower bounds on the lift coefficient is considered. First, optimal trajectories are computed by minimizing the total velocity impulse (hence, the propellant consumption) required for AOT transfer. The sequential gradient-restoration algorithm (SGRA) is used for optimal control problems. The optimal trajectory is shown to include two branches: a relatively short descending flight branch (branch 1) and a long ascending flight branch (branch 2). Next, attention is focused on guidance trajectories capable of approximating the optimal trajectories in real time, while retaining the essential characteristics of simplicity, ease of implementation, and reliability. For the atmospheric pass, a feedback control scheme is employed and the lift coefficient is adjusted according to a two-stage gamma guidance law. Further improvements are possible via a modified gamma guidance which is more stable with respect to dispersion effects arising from navigation errors, variations of the atmospheric density, and uncertainties in the aerodynamic coefficients than gamma guidance trajectory. A byproduct of the studies on dispersion effects is the following design concept. For coplaner aeroassisted orbital transfer, the lift-range-to-weight ratio appears to play a more important role than the lift-to-drag ratio. This is because the lift-range-to-weight ratio controls mainly the minimum altitude (hence, the peak heating rate) of the guidance trajectory; on the other hand, the lift-to-drag ratio controls mainly the duration of the atmospheric pass of the guidance trajectory.

Miele, A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The FIELDS Instrument Suite on MMS: Scientific Objectives, Measurements, and Data Products

The FIELDS instrumentation suite on the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission provides comprehensive measurements of the full vector magnetic and electric fields in the reconnection regions investigated by MMS, including the dayside magnetopause and the night-side magnetotail acceleration regions out to 25 Re. Six sensors on each of the four MMS spacecraft provide overlapping measurements of these fields with sensitive cross-calibrations both before and after launch. The FIELDS magnetic sensors consist of redundant flux-gate magnetometers (AFG and DFG) over the frequency range from DC to 64 Hz, a search coil magnetometer (SCM) providing AC measurements over the full whistler mode spectrum expected to be seen on MMS, and an Electron Drift Instrument (EDI) that calibrates offsets for the magnetometers. The FIELDS three-axis electric field measurements are provided by two sets of biased double-probe sensors (SDP and ADP) operating in a highly symmetric spacecraft environment to reduce significantly electrostatic errors. These sensors are complemented with the EDI electric measurements that are free from all local spacecraft perturbations. Cross-calibrated vector electric field measurements are thus produced from DC to 100 kHz, well beyond the upper hybrid resonance whose frequency provides an accurate determination of the local electron density. Due to its very large geometric factor, EDI also provides very high time resolution (∼1 ms) ambient electron flux measurements at a few selected energies near 1 keV. This paper provides an overview of the FIELDS suite, its science objectives and measurement requirements, and its performance as verified in calibration and cross-calibration procedures that result in anticipated errors less than 0.1 nT in B and 0.5 mV/m in E. Summaries of data products that result from FIELDS are also described, as well as algorithms for cross-calibration. Details of the design and performance characteristics of AFG/DFG, SCM, ADP, SDP, and EDI are provided in five companion papers.

Electromagnetic field measurements↗
NASA NTRS2003

Parameters Describing Earth Observing Remote Sensing Systems

The Earth science community needs to generate consistent and standard definitions for spatial, spectral, radiometric, and geometric properties describing passive electro-optical Earth observing sensors and their products. The parameters used to describe sensors and to describe their products are often confused. In some cases, parameters for a sensor and for its products are identical; in other cases, these parameters vary widely. Sensor parameters are bound by the fundamental performance of a system, while product parameters describe what is available to the end user. Products are often resampled, edge sharpened, pan-sharpened, or compressed, and can differ drastically from the intrinsic data acquired by the sensor. Because detailed sensor performance information may not be readily available to an international science community, standardization of product parameters is of primary performance. Spatial product parameters described include Modulation Transfer Function (MTF), point spread function, line spread function, edge response, stray light, edge sharpening, aliasing, ringing, and compression effects. Spectral product parameters discussed include full width half maximum, ripple, slope edge, and out-of-band rejection. Radiometric product properties discussed include relative and absolute radiometry, noise equivalent spectral radiance, noise equivalent temperature diffenence, and signal-to-noise ratio. Geometric product properties discussed include geopositional accuracy expressed as CE90, LE90, and root mean square error. Correlated properties discussed include such parameters as band-to-band registration, which is both a spectral and a spatial property. In addition, the proliferation of staring and pushbroom sensor architectures requires new parameters to describe artifacts that are different from traditional cross-track system artifacts. A better understanding of how various system parameters affect product performance is also needed to better ascertain the utility of existing datasets and products as well as to specify the performance of new sensors and products. Examples of simulations performed for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission illustrate how various parameters affect system and product performance. Specific examples include the effects of ground sample distance, MTF, and band-to-band registration on various products.

Zanoni, Vicki↗
NASA NTRS1993

Practical aspects of transfer from GTO to lunar orbit

This paper is a presentation of some practical aspects of orbital transfer from Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) to close, near-circular orbits of the Moon. The intent is to identify the important parameters affecting the problem and to bound (approximately) the range of required delta V for a spacecraft that has been placed in GTO. The basic geometric relationships are described and the dynamics are simulated by use of the Zero-Sphere-of Influence Patched Conic method. It is found that the inclination of the transfer orbit to the Earth-Moon plane is relatively unimportant while the position of the line of apsides with respect to the Moon's orbit is the main geometric parameter of interest. It is shown that this parameter can be controlled by selecting the time of day for launch and that two launch windows of approximately 45 minutes duration are available each day of the year if use is made of the recommended phasing orbit transfer. The phasing orbit transfer not only provides twice-daily launch windows, but also provides a mechanism for efficacious correction of GTO injection errors. Delta V penalties for out-of-plane transfer and for late launch are evaluated and the method is recommended for use as an affordable means of achieving lunar orbit.

Uphoff, Chauncey↗
NASA NTRS2005

Solar-System Tests of Gravitational Theories

We are engaged in testing gravitational theory, mainly using observations of objects in the solar system and mainly on the interplanetary scale. Our goal is either to detect departures from the standard model (general relativity) - if any exist within the level of sensitivity of our data - or to support this model by placing tighter bounds on any departure from it. For this project, we have analyzed a combination of observational data with our model of the solar system, including planetary radar ranging, lunar laser ranging, and spacecraft tracking, as well as pulsar timing and pulsar VLBI measurements. In the past year, we have added to our data, primarily lunar laser ranging measurements, but also supplementary data concerning the physical properties of solar-system objects, such as the solar quadrupole moment, planetary masses, and asteroid radii. Because the solar quadrupole moment contributes to the classical precession of planetary perihelia, but with a dependence on distance from the Sun that differs from that of the relativistic precession, it is possible to estimate effects simultaneously. However, our interest is mainly in the relativistic effect, and we find that imposing a constraint on the quadrupole moment from helioseismology studies, gives us a dramatic (about ten-fold) decrease in the standard error of our estimate of the relativistic component of the perihelion advance.

Shapiro, Irwin I.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Random Variables with Moment-Matching Staircase Density Functions

This paper proposes a family of random variables for uncertainty modeling. The variables of interest have a bounded support set, and prescribed values for the first four moments. We present the feasibility conditions for the existence of any of such variables, and propose a class of variables that conforms to such constraints. This class is called staircase because the density of its members is a piecewise constant function. Convex optimization is used to calculate their distributions according to several optimality criteria, including maximal entropy and maximal log-likelihood. The flexibility and efficiency of staircases enable modeling phenomena having a possibly skewed and/or multimodal response at a low computational cost. Furthermore, we provide a means to account for the uncertainty in the distribution caused by estimating staircases from data. These ideas are illustrated by generating empirical staircase predictor models. We consider the case in which the predictor matches the sample moments exactly (a setting applicable to large datasets), as well as the case in which the predictor accounts for the sampling error in such moments (a setting applicable to sparse datasets). A predictor model for the dynamics of an aeroelastic airfoil subject to flutter instability is used as an example. The resulting predictor not only describes the system's response accurately, but also enables carrying out a risk analysis for safe flight.

Luis G. Crespo↗