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DOE OSTI2021

Influence of inhomogeneous stochasticity on the falsifiability of mean-field theories and examples from accretion disc modelling

ABSTRACT Despite spatial and temporal fluctuations in turbulent astrophysical systems, mean-field theories can be used to describe their secular evolution. However, observations taken over time scales much shorter than dynamical time scales capture a system in a single state of its turbulence ensemble. Comparing with mean-field theory can falsify the latter only if the theory is additionally supplied with a quantified precision. The central limit theorem provides appropriate estimates to the precision only when fluctuations contribute linearly to an observable and with constant coherent scales. Here, we introduce an error propagation formula that relaxes both limitations, allowing for non-linear functional forms of observables and inhomogeneous coherent scales and amplitudes of fluctuations. The method is exemplified in the context of accretion disc theories, where inhomogeneous fluctuations in the surface temperature are propagated to the disc emission spectrum – the latter being a non-linear and non-local function of the former. The derived precision depends non-monotonically on emission frequency. Using the same method, we investigate how binned spectral fluctuations in telescope data change with the spectral resolving power. We discuss the broader implications for falsifiability of a mean-field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unraveling the Dynamics of Nucleosome Arrays

The organization of genomic DNA into chromatin is a fundamental determinant of genome stability, regulation, and cellular function. Nucleosomes, the basic repeating units of chromatin, assemble into higher-order structures whose organization and heterogeneity remain difficult to characterize using conventional ensemble-averaged techniques. A key need in the field is the development of experimental approaches capable of directly visualizing nucleosome assemblies and their structural variability at the single-molecule level. This LDRD Lab-Wide project focused on establishing and evaluating atomic force microscopy (AFM)–based approaches for the characterization of nucleosome assemblies. The work emphasized experimental workflows for preparing, imaging, and assessing multi-nucleosome systems, rather than isolated single nucleosomes. Through method development and exploratory measurements, the project demonstrated the feasibility of applying scanning probe microscopy to investigate chromatin-relevant assemblies and provided preliminary insight into the strengths and limitations of this approach for future quantitative studies. Results and lessons learned from this effort were disseminated to the broader scientific community through multiple national conference presentations, helping to position LLNL for continued work in chromatin and genome organization research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid Kohn-Sham+Thomas-Fermi scheme for high-temperature density functional theory

We report density functional theory has revolutionised our understanding of dense, strongly coupled systems in the condensed-matter limit. At elevated temperatures, such as those found in warm dense matter and dense plasma, the computational cost of calculating enough states to accurately describe a thermal ensemble of electrons is a major obstacle to practical Kohn-Sham calculations. This problem has recently been tackled from a number of approaches, including a plane-wave approximation for electrons at high energy. In this work, we demonstrate how the Thomas-Fermi density of states, equivalent to a local plane-wave approximation, can yield improved results for thermodynamic quantities, electron density profiles, and interatomic forces while requiring fewer states than existing methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

PbS/CdS Quantum Dot Room-Temperature Single-Emitter Spectroscopy Reaches the Telecom O and S Bands via an Engineered Stability

We synthesized PbS/CdS core/shell quantum dots (QDs) to have functional single-emitter properties for room-temperature, solid-state operation in the telecom O and S bands. Two shell-growth methods–cation exchange and successive ionic layer adsorption and reaction (SILAR)–were employed to prepare QD heterostructures with shells of 2–16 monolayers. PbS/CdS QDs were sufficiently bright and stable to resolve photoluminescence (PL) spectra representing both bands from single nanocrystals using standard detection methods, and for a QD emitting in the O-band a second-order correlation function showed strong photon antibunching, important steps toward demonstrating the utility of lead chalcogenide QDs as single-photon emitters (SPEs). Irrespective of type, few telecom-SPEs exist that are capable of such room-temperature operation. Access to single-QD spectra enabled a direct assessment of spectral line width, which was ~70–90 meV compared to much broader ensemble spectra (~300 meV). We show inhomogeneous broadening results from dispersity in PbS core sizes that increases dramatically with extended cation exchange. Quantum yields (QYs) are negatively impacted at thick shells (>6 monolayers) and, especially, by SILAR-growth conditions. Time-resolved PL measurements revealed that, with SILAR, initially single-exponential PL-decays transition to biexponential, with opening of nonradiative carrier-recombination channels. Radiative decay times are, overall, longer for core/shell QDs compared to PbS cores, which we demonstrate can be partially attributed to some core/shell sizes occupying a quasi-type II electron–hole localization regime. Finally, we demonstrate that shell engineering and the use of lower laser-excitation powers can afford significantly suppressed blinking and photobleaching. However, dependence on shell thickness comes at a cost of less-than-optimal brightness, with implications for both materials and experimental design

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Measurement of Length Distribution of 1D Nanoparticles in Solution via Optical Polarimetry

The efficient measurement of the length distribution of nanotubes, nanowires, and other one-dimensional (1D) nanoparticles in solution is important to enable their incorporation into materials and devices and to optimize their processing for properties of interest, such as thermal/electrical conductivity or mechanical strength, in suspensions and composites. We report an electric-field (E-field)-assisted optical-polarimetry technique to measure the length distribution of ensembles of high-aspect-ratio particles in dilute suspension. The degree of alignment of polarizable 1D particles suspended in a fluid under Brownian motion explicitly depends on the E-field strength and the particle length. We show that it is possible to extract the length distribution of 1D nanoparticles suspended in an insulating fluid by applying a range of E-fields and using optical polarimetry to measure the corresponding alignment order parameter. Notably, the method is relatively insensitive to the diameter of the 1D particles, which can be poorly known or vary within a sample. The technique is validated with silver nanowires and carbon nanotubes of known lengths, as well as polymer-depletion-length-separated single-wall carbon nanotube samples with length distributions independently measured with analytical ultracentrifugation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of the optical-polarimetry technique to quantify changes in the length distribution of ultranarrow, sub-nanometer-diameter single-wall carbon nanotubes under different types and durations of ultrasonication. Within its range of applicability (polarizable 1D nanoparticles in the 0.5 to 15 μm length range, constrained by the voltage stability of the media and the suspended particles), the E-field-assisted optical-polarimetry method is a particularly efficient and accurate method to measure the length distribution of nanowires and nanotubes in suspension.

1D nanoparticles↗

DOE OSTI2021

AFM-IR and s-SNOM-IR measurements of chemically addressable monolayers on Au nanoparticles

The performance of catalysts depends on their nanoscale properties, and local variations in structure and composition can have a dramatic impact on the catalytic reactivity. Therefore, probing the localized reactivity of catalytic surfaces using high spatial resolution vibrational spectroscopy, such as infrared (IR) nanospectroscopy and tip-enhanced Raman spectroscopy, is essential for mapping their reactivity pattern. Two fundamentally different scanning probe IR nanospectroscopy techniques, namely, scattering-type scanning near-field optical microscopy (sSNOM) and atomic force microscopy-infrared spectroscopy (AFM-IR), provide the capabilities for mapping the reactivity pattern of catalytic surfaces with a spatial resolution of ~20 nm. Herein, we compare these two techniques with regard to their applicability for probing the vibrational signature of reactive molecules on catalytic nanoparticles. For this purpose, we use chemically addressable self-assembled molecules on Au nanoparticles as model systems. We identified significant spectral differences depending on the measurement technique, which originate from the fundamentally different working principles of the applied methods. While AFM-IR spectra provided information from all the molecules that were positioned underneath the tip, the s-SNOM spectra were more orientation-sensitive. Due to its field-enhancement factor, the s-SNOM spectra showed higher vibrational signals for dipoles that were perpendicularly oriented to the surface. The s-SNOM sensitivity to the molecular orientation influenced the amplitude, position, and signal-to-noise ratio of the collected spectra. Ensemble-based IR measurements verified that differences in the localized IR spectra stem from the enhanced sensitivity of s-SNOM measurements to the adsorption geometry of the probed molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ettringite hysteresis under sorption from molecular simulations

Highlights: • Hybrid Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations are performed. • Anisotropic large strain coefficient of crystal shrinkage of ettringite is provided. • Entropy increases when ettringite converts into metaettringite. • Sorption-induced stress may lead to columns collapse upon drying. • H-bonds involving OH groups in columns play a role in hysteresis. The response of ettringite under sorption is critical for the utilization of this mineral as an energy storage material and to understand the concrete durability problems associated with ettringite formation. We report molecular simulations directly sampling the osmotic ensemble to understand the sorption processes and structural changes in ettringite-metaettringite transition. Desorption branch and sorption-induced volume changes from simulations agree with the experiments. The structural changes at low relative humidity are analyzed, revealing for the first time details of metaettringite structure. The reversibility under sorption observed experimentally is captured by simulation in the ettringite domain. The reversibility in the conversion of metaettringite into ettringite is not captured by the direct simulations in the osmotic ensemble due to the large volume changes associated with ettringite desorption. Finally, we discuss the role of hydrogen bonds on the hysteresis in ettringite.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deterministic Quantum Trajectory via Imaginary Time Evolution

Stochastic quantum trajectories, such as pure state evolutions under unitary dynamics and random measurements, offer a crucial ensemble description of many-body open system dynamics. Recent studies have highlighted that individual quantum trajectories also encode essential physical information. Prominent examples include measurement-induced phase transitions, where a pure quantum state corresponding to fixed measurement outcomes (trajectories) exhibits distinct entanglement phases, depending on the measurement rate. However, direct observation of this effect is hindered by an exponential postselection barrier, whereby the probability of realizing a specific trajectory is exponentially small. We propose a deterministic method to efficiently prepare quantum trajectories in polynomial time using imaginary time evolution and, thus, overcome this fundamental challenge. Here, we demonstrate that our method applies to a certain class of quantum states, and argue that universal approaches do not exist for any quantum trajectories. Our result paves the way for experimentally exploring the physics of individual quantum trajectories at scale and enables direct observation of certain postselection-dependent phenomena.

Mittal, Shivan [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantum chaos on edge

Recently, the physics of many-body quantum chaotic systems close to their ground states has come under intensified scrutiny. Such studies are motivated by the emergence of model systems exhibiting chaotic fluctuations throughout the entire spectrum [the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model being a renowned representative] as well as by the physics of holographic principles, which likewise unfold close to ground states. Interpreting the edge of the spectrum as a quantum critical point, here we combine a wide range of analytical and numerical methods to the identification and comprehensive description of two different universality classes: the near edge physics of “sparse” and the near edge of “dense” chaotic systems. The distinction lies in the ratio between the number of a system's random parameters and its Hilbert space dimension, which is exponentially small or algebraically small in the sparse and dense case, respectively. Notable representatives of the two classes are generic chaotic many-body models (sparse) and invariant random matrix ensembles or chaotic gravitational systems (dense). While the two families share identical spectral correlations at energy scales comparable to the level spacing, the density of states and its fluctuations near the edge are different. Considering the SYK model as a representative of the sparse class, we apply a combination of field theory and exact diagonalization to a detailed discussion of its edge spectrum. Conversely, Jackiw-Teitelboim gravity is our reference model for the dense class, where an analysis of the gravitational path integral and random matrix theory reveal universal differences to the sparse class, whose implications for the construction of holographic principles we discuss. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Altland, Alexander (ORCID:0000000229914805)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Solar Energy Product Based on Cloud Coverage Estimation Using Machine Learning Methods

Cloud cover estimation from images taken by sky-facing cameras can be an important input for analyzing current weather conditions and estimating photovoltaic power generation. The constant change in position, shape, and density of clouds, however, makes the development of a robust computational method for cloud cover estimation challenging. Accurately determining the edge of clouds and hence the separation between clouds and clear sky is difficult and often impossible. Toward determining cloud cover for estimating photovoltaic output, we propose using machine learning methods for cloud segmentation. We compare several methods including a classical regression model, deep learning methods, and boosting methods that combine results from the other machine learning models. To train each of the machine learning models with various sky conditions, we supplemented the existing Singapore whole sky imaging segmentation database with hazy and overcast images collected by a camera-equipped Waggle sensor node. We found that the U-Net architecture, one of the deep neural networks we utilized, segmented cloud pixels most accurately. However, the accuracy of segmenting cloud pixels did not guarantee high accuracy of estimating solar irradiance. We confirmed that the cloud cover ratio is directly related to solar irradiance. Additionally, we confirmed that solar irradiance and solar power output are closely related; hence, by predicting solar irradiance, we can estimate solar power output. This study demonstrates that sky-facing cameras with machine learning methods can be used to estimate solar power output. This ground-based approach provides an inexpensive way to understand solar irradiance and estimate production from photovoltaic solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Thomson scattering of a tightly focused relativistically intense laser pulse by an ensemble of particles

We report a study of the process of nonlinear Thomson scattering (NTS) of a tightly focused relativistically intense laser pulse by an ensemble of electrons simulating the result of ionisation of an ultrathin nanofoil. The description of all six components of a laser pulse is based on the Stratton – Chu integrals describing radiation focused by an off-axis parabolic mirror into a spot down to the diffraction limit, which is of practical interest for modern experiments with extreme-intensity lasers, including diagnostics of their parameters. The interaction of a laser pulse with electrons is simulated by the test-particle method, and the resulting trajectories are used to calculate the characteristics of secondary electromagnetic radiation. The effect of the laser-pulse focal spot diameter in the range λ – 6λ on the angular distributions of the radiated energy and NTS spectra, as well as of a laser-beam peak intensity of 10{sup 21} – 10{sup 22} W cm{sup −2} on the spectral width of the secondary radiation is studied in relation to the experimentally implemented focusing scheme using the example of a laser pulse with an initial homogeneous spatial distribution and a duration of ∼25 fs. (interaction of laser radiation with matter. laser plasma)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Moments of parton distribution functions of the pion from lattice QCD using gradient flow

We present a nonperturbative determination of the pion valence parton distribution function (PDF) moment ratios ⟨𝑥 𝑛−1 ⟩/⟨𝑥⟩ up to 𝑛 = 6, using the gradient flow in lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). As a testing ground, we employ SU(3) isosymmetric gauge configurations generated by the OpenLat initiative with a pseudoscalar mass of 𝑚 𝜋 ≃ 411 MeV. Our analysis uses four lattice spacings and a nonperturbatively improved action, enabling full control over the continuum extrapolation, and the limit of vanishing flow time, 𝑡 →0. The flowed ratios exhibit O(𝑎 2 ) scaling across the ensembles, and the continuum-extrapolated results, matched to the $\overline{MS}$ scheme at 𝜇 = 2 GeV using next-to-next-to-leading order matching coefficients, show only mild residual flow-time dependence. The resulting ratios, computed with a relatively small number of configurations, are consistent with phenomenological expectations for the pion’s valence distribution, with statistical uncertainties that are competitive with modern global fits. These findings demonstrate that the gradient flow provides an efficient and systematically improvable method to access partonic quantities from first principles. Future extensions of this work will target lighter pion masses toward the physical point, and applications to nucleon structure such as the proton PDFs and the gluon and sea-quark distributions.

lattice QCD↗

DOE OSTI2021

Which Combinations of Environmental Conditions and Microphysical Parameter Values Produce a Given Orographic Precipitation Distribution?

This study applies an idealized modeling framework, alongside a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to explore which combinations of upstream environmental conditions and cloud microphysical parameter values can produce a particular precipitation distribution over an idealized two-dimensional, bell-shaped mountain. Simulations focus on orographic precipitation produced when an atmospheric river interacts with topography. MCMC-based analysis reveals that different combinations of parameter values produce a similar precipitation distribution, with the most influential parameters being relative humidity (RH), horizontal wind speed (U), surface potential temperature (θ sfc ), and the snow fall speed coefficient (A s ). RH, U, and A s exhibit interdependence: changes in one or more of these factors can be mitigated by compensating changes in the other(s) to produce similar orographic precipitation rates. The results also indicate that the parameter sensitivities and relationships can vary for spatial subregions and given different environmental conditions. In particular, high θ sfc values are more likely to produce the target precipitation rate and spatial distribution, and thus the ensemble of simulations shows a preference for liquid precipitation at the surface. The results presented here highlight the complexity of orographic precipitation controls, and have implications for flood and water management, observational efforts, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems

This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.

Colorado River↗

DOE OSTI2024

HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model

Abstract. A new set of standalone parameterizations is presented for simulating the injection, evolution, and radiative forcing by stratospheric volcanic aerosols against an idealized Held–Suarez–Williamson (HSW) atmospheric background in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). In this model configuration (HSW with enabled volcanism, HSW-V), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash are injected into the atmosphere with a specified profile in the vertical, and they proceed to follow a simple exponential decay. The SO2 decay is modeled as a perfect conversion to a long-living sulfate aerosol which persists in the stratosphere. All three species are implemented as tracers in the model framework and are transported by the dynamical core's advection algorithm. The aerosols contribute simultaneously to local heating of the stratosphere and cooling of the surface by a simple plane-parallel Beer–Lambert law applied on two zonally symmetric radiation broadbands in the longwave and shortwave ranges. It is shown that the implementation parameters can be tuned to produce realistic temperature anomaly signatures of large volcanic events. In particular, results are shown for an ensemble of runs that mimic the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The design requires no coupling to microphysical subgrid-scale parameterizations and thus approaches the computational affordability of prescribed aerosol forcing strategies. The idealized simulations contain a single isolated volcanic event against a statistically uniform climate, where no background aerosols or other sources of externally forced variability are present. HSW-V represents a simpler-to-understand tool for the development of climate source-to-impact attribution methods.

Hollowed, Joseph P. (ORCID:0000000286581672)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Finite temperature properties of uranium mononitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising nuclear fuel that combines the advantageous properties of readily used UO 2 and uranium alloys, such as high melting temperature and high uranium density, and thermal conductivity, respectively. A better understanding of UN behavior at operating temperatures can be obtained from finite temperature data, such as elastic properties. To get this information, ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations were performed at five different temperatures using constant volume (NVT) and constant pressure (NPT) ensembles. Initially, the performance of PBE functional in reproducing experimental crystallographic properties and magnetic ordering is assessed. The finite temperature phonon dispersions are calculated using NVT simulation results, which show a softening of the phonon modes with increasing temperature. The NPT results are used to obtain the thermal expansion of UN and finite temperature electronic properties. The calculated thermal expansion is compared with our measurements using neutron diffraction. Additionally, the temperature dependent elastic properties of UN are evaluated using the strain-stress method in AIMD simulations, indicating that UN becomes softer and more compressible with increasing temperature. Also, the calculated Young’s modulus slope is in very good agreement with the experiment. The finite temperature heat capacity and electronic thermal conductivity are calculated from AIMD simulations, which are in better agreement with the experiment than the heat capacity and thermal conductivity calculated using the structures relaxed at 0K. Finally, the thermal diffusivity from AIMD has opposite temperature dependence compared to experimental results, which we argued comes from the underestimated electronic thermal conductivity.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geophysical Retrievals in an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Framework for Illuminating Processes Controlling Water Cycle

Focal Area(s): This white paper responds to Focal Area #3: Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses the water-cycle and data-model integration grand challenge. It leverages data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility, and Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE), and Science Focus Area (SFA). The white paper focuses on controlling cloud, precipitation, and radiative properties as observed and simulated by the Earth System Models (ESM). The described framework can be readily applied to any other ensemble of instruments, including satellites and other ground-based networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗