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At least 685 records · Page 38

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Value-creating upcycling of retired electric vehicle battery cathodes

The electrification revolution in the automobile and other industries demands annual production capacity of batteries of at least 10 2 GWh, which presents a twofold challenge: supply of key materials such as cobalt and nickel and recycling when batteries are retired from use. Pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical recycling are currently used in industry but suffer from complexity, high costs, and secondary pollution. Here we report a molten-salt-based method for direct recycling (MSDR) that is environmentally benign and creates value on the basis of a techno-economic analysis using real-world data and price information. We also experimentally demonstrate the feasibility of MSDR by upcycling a low-nickel polycrystalline LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC) cathode material into Ni-rich (Ni > 65%) single-crystal NMCs with increased energy density (>10% increase) and outstanding electrochemical performance (>94% capacity retention after 500 cycles). This work may open opportunities for closed-loop recycling of electric vehicle batteries and manufacturing of next-generation NMC cathode materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evaluating the current perceived cost of ownership for buses and trucks in China

Decarbonizing commercial vehicles, including buses, trucks, and special purpose vehicles, is essential for China to achieve its carbon neutrality target by 2060. However, understanding the adoption barriers of alternative fuel technologies for commercial vehicles has largely been limited to the total cost of ownership approach that mainly considers tangible costs. Additionally, this study proposes a perceived cost of ownership (PCO) model, which monetizes both tangible and implicit costs, including charging annoyance for buses and trucks by size and classification under different use scenarios. In the case study for China's current bus and truck market, the PCO of alternative fuel technologies, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are 27%–129% and 31%–86% higher than the most economically competitive powertrains – the compressed natural/liquefied petroleum gas technology and hybrid electric technology. BEVs could be cost-effective in the mini/midsize bus segment or in the daily short-distance driving scenario, and FCEVs could firstly be deployed in cities with a low hydrogen price. Though the implicit costs caused by range anxiety and charging annoyance account for at least 27% of BEV's PCO, making BEV uncompetitive, the battery swapping technique could reduce the implicit cost and overall cash outflow for BEV owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy consumption and charging load profiles from long-haul truck electrification in the United States

Abstract The urgent need to decarbonize the transportation sector combined with falling battery prices has spurred industry and policy interest in long-haul truck electrification. The charging behavior and resulting loads from electrified long-haul freight trucks are crucial for the smooth operation of the electric grid and have far-reaching environmental impacts (e.g., greenhouse gas and other air pollutant emissions). However, the aggregate energy impact of a fleetwide shift to electrified long-haul freight trucking has not been explored. This study combines electric truck design scenarios, bottom-up truck weight modeling, vehicle energy modeling, large-scale truck traffic data, and simulation of likely operation and charging behaviors to estimate end-use energy consumption and location-specific hourly charging loads for a national fleet of long-haul electric trucks. Relative to a fleet of future diesel trucks, electrification would reduce direct end-use energy consumption by 0.9 × 10 18 J (0.9 quadrillion BTU), but electrification might increase life cycle energy consumption depending on the electricity source. The electricity required to charge long-haul electric trucks is equivalent to five percent of annual electricity consumption in the United States (US). The simulated truck charging loads peak during the day across the US grid regions, but the charging peaks’ exact timing is sensitive to when trucks are dispatched for operation. The load shapes suggest that electric trucks’ charging loads can coincide with peaks in solar power generation, and planning could enable on- or off-site integration between truck charging stations and renewable electricity generation.

Tong, Fan (ORCID:0000000346613956)↗

EFFORT (EFFectiveness Of Rate sTructure for enabling demand response)

This tool helps utilities evaluate potential time of use price-plans and find effective hours for price plan on peak periods and the potential price-elastic demand response. An optimization model can be used to find tiered prices for the time of use tariffs and analyze the impact on load profiles, energy consumption, utility, and customer savings. The tool is equipped with an optimization model to determine the energy consumption of electric appliances that can leverage survey data containing information on the number of appliances owned by customers. Lastly, a statistical model can be used to predict system-level load based on exogenous parameters such as weather, time of day, month, type of day, and year. The tool is scripted in Python and uses the Pyomo python optimization language.

Duwadi, Kapil↗

Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Integration Framework: Regulatory Innovation for DER Compensation and Cost Allocation

Existing regulatory approaches to DER lack the precision and granularity necessary to ensure that DER can continue to scale in a cost-effective manner that is aligned with the public interest. To address this need, with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity, Berkeley Lab and Current Energy Group developed an illustrative regulatory framework. By adopting a technology-neutral and modular approach, the framework enables flexibility and scalability for DER providers, utilities, and regulators. Clear price signals and incentives encourage the provision of valuable grid services, while equitable cost allocation promotes efficient use of distribution capacity and interconnection resources. This approach mirrors traditional ratemaking principles for importing customers and positions DERs as integral components of a dynamic and cost-effective energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Status of the evidence for a magnetic monopole

The experimental evidence supporting the detection of a moving magnetic monopole, using a balloon-borne array of track detectors, was presented. Although the results cannot be proved to have been produced by a monopole, they do not seem to have been produced by any nucleus. The very high, roughly constant ionization rate inferred from track etch rate measurements in a stack of Lexan detectors implies passage of a minimum-ionizing particle more highly charged than any known nucleus, yet the Cerenkov film detectors indicated a velocity less than about 0.68 times the speed of light and the size of the track in the nuclear emulsion indicated a velocity approximately equal to 0.5 times the speed of light. At this velocity the ionization rate of a highly electrically charged particle would have changed dramatically with pathlength unless its mass to charge ratio were far greater than that of a nucleus.

Price, P. B.↗

The Technical and Economic Potential of Hydrogen within the United States

Hydrogen markets have an opportunity to grow as its value as an energy intermediate increases. Hydrogen’s estimated serviceable consumption potential in the United States is 106 MMT/yr which is a ten-fold increase over the current market size. That opportunity is driven primarily by increased demands for metals refining, biofuel and hydrocarbon production, supplementing the natural gas system, seasonal storage for the electricity grid, and fuel cell electric vehicles. The U.S. has many renewable, nuclear, and fossil resources that each could meet that demand itself. The economic potential, which considers both costs to produce hydrogen and willingness of applications to pay for it, is 22 to 41 MMT/yr. The range is impacted by factors that impact the cost to produce including the price of natural gas and the cost of electrolyzers. It is also impacted by competition to provide the same services as hydrogen including electrification.

electrolysis↗

Technoeconomic analysis and life cycle assessment of purification processes for captured CO 2 streams

Captured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) streams contain impurities that must be removed to meet specifications for safe transport, storage, and utilization. Among these impurities, oxygen poses challenges due to its high reactivity and potential to cause corrosion, motivating stringent purity limits below 10 ppmv. Building on recent experimental demonstrations of catalytic oxygen removal using hydrogen (H 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), methanol (CH 3 OH), and methane (CH 4 ) as reducing agents, this study presents a technoeconomic (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of these four catalytic purification pathways. Process flowsheets were developed and simulated in Aspen Plus for CO 2 streams representative of both low-temperature and high-temperature capture processes, with integrated heat recovery and energy optimization. Results showed that total purification costs were dominated by feedstock procurement and electricity consumption. Among the studied reducing agents, the CH 4 -assisted route achieved the lowest purification cost and highest CO 2 recovery. Sensitivity analyses showed that the H 2 route became competitive at H 2 prices below $\$$0.56/kg to $\$$0.84/kg, depending on the CO 2 feed temperature conditions. In conclusion, environmental impacts were primarily driven by indirect CO 2 emissions from raw material production and utility consumption.

CO2 pipeline specifications↗

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses

A baseline bus fleet and battery electric bus investment scenario was developed based on the average or common parameters of existing battery electric bus (BEB) fleets. A discounted cashflow analysis was done that found the baseline fleet to have a net present value of $785,000 and simple payback of 3.3 years. The 33 main parameters were then swung ±50% to determine their relative influence on NPV and were ranked accordingly. Then parameter volatility was estimated by dividing the range of observed values by the baseline value. The parameters that are most influential and volatile were highlighted as the ones fleet managers should focus on when determining if BEBs are a good investment option for them. These top parameters are 1) BEB purchase price, 2) purchase price of foregone diesel bus, 3) grant amount, 4) maintenance costs of foregone diesel bus, 5) annual vehicle miles traveled.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Competitively priced hydrogen via high-efficiency nuclear electrolysis

A fully dedicated nuclear-electrolytic hydrogen-production facility, based on advanced (1985) technology, has been synthesized and assessed at the conceptual level. The facility integrates an HTGR operating a binary shaftpower-extraction cycle at 980 C top temperature, direct dc electricity generation via acyclic generators, and high-current density high-pressure electrolyzers based on the solid polymer electrolyte approach. All subsystems are close-coupled and optimally interfaced. Pipeline-pressure hydrogen and coproduct oxygen are produced at 6900 kPa. On consistent costing bases, the advanced facility concept was found to provide hydrogen costs that were approximately half those associated with conventional, contemporary-technology nuclear electrolysis. The nuclear heat-to-hydrogen energy conversion efficiency for the advanced system was estimated as 43%, against 25% for the baseline present-day approach.

Escher, W. J. D.↗

Batteries Included: Top 10 Findings from Berkeley Lab Research on the Growth of Hybrid Power Plants in the United States

One of the most important electric power system trends of the 2010s was the rapid deployment of wind turbines and photovoltaic arrays, but a twist for the 2020s may be the rapid deployment of ‘hybrid’ generation resources. Hybrid power plants typically combine solar or wind (or other energy sources) with co-located storage. While hybridization helps to ease the challenge of balancing variable supply and demand, its relative novelty means that research is needed to facilitate integration and promote innovation. Combining the characteristics of multiple energy, storage, and conversion technologies poses complex questions for grid operations and economics. Project developers, system operators, planners, and regulators would benefit from better data, methods, and tools to estimate the costs, values, and system impacts of hybrid projects. This publication showcases some of Berkeley Lab’s robust research program intended to support private- and public-sector decision-making about hybrid plants in the United States. Our short briefing summarizes articles that we published between 2020 and 2022, links to the in-depth reports, and provides contact details for further engagement on the specific research topics: Growth: Developer interest in hybrid power plants is strong and growing Price vs. Value: PV+storage hybrids have low PPA prices and high value in some regions Market Drivers: Solar hybridization is driven by tax credits and other benefits Configuration Choices: Market prices have incentivized shorter duration batteries with PV Capacity Value: The capacity contribution of a hybrid is less than the sum of its parts Ancillary Services: AS markets are a valuable yet fleeting option for hybrids Market Participation: Hybrids can more flexibly engage with electricity markets Operations: The power system value of hybrids depends on how they are operated Distributed Hybrids: Growth of customer-sited PV+storage hybrids offers new opportunities Future Research: Where next? Priority areas for hybrid power research.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Compact Absorber Technology Leads to Significant Reduction in the Cost of Point Source CO 2 Capture

The size of columns in traditional absorption-based processes for CO 2 capture contributes significantly to the overall capital cost. A demonstrated method to reduce the cost of point source CO 2 capture, focusing on reducing the absorber height by increasing the liquid-to-gas reaction contact area and decreasing the CO 2 diffusion resistance without increasing gas-side pressure drop is presented along with techno-economic analysis results. Bench-scale tests on the unique Compact Absorber showed overall CO 2 mass transfer enhancement of varying degrees compared to a traditional packed column for similar process conditions, demonstrating that a 60+% reduction in size of a typical post-combustion absorber with a packing height of 70-100 ft and total height of 150-180 ft can be achieved. The techno-economic analysis showed significant cost reductions when the Compact Absorber is combined with other transformative aspects of the University of Kentucky Institute for Decarbonization and Energy Advancement point source CO 2 capture process compared to the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory pertinent reference case for pulverized coal plants with CO 2 capture. Here, a levelized cost of electricity excluding CO 2 transportation and storage of $\$95.6$/MWh was estimated, which is a 9% reduction, with a total capital cost contribution of $45/MWh, which is a 12% reduction. Additionally, a breakeven CO 2 sales price also referred to as the cost of CO 2 capture, of $36.70/tonne was estimated when the UK hindered primary amine solvent is used, which is a 20% reduction compared to the reference case.

CO2 capture↗

Synergistic Heat Pumped Thermal Storage and Flexibly Carbon Capture System

As the U.S. grid evolves toward a lower-carbon system, fossil generation assets need to operate in energy markets with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration while also decreasing carbon emissions. Current carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies suffer from high capital cost and an inability to operate flexibly during periods of oscillating demand. The ARPA-E FLECCS Program Phase 1 was created to fund designing and optimizing innovative CCS processes that enable flexibility on a high-VRE grid. To address this need, the Colorado State University (CSU) Team won funding to design a synergized system of thermal energy storage, power generation, and flexible carbon capture to enable breakthrough system performance that achieves an LCOE <$75/MWh with >99% capture rate. This approach will target new or existing natural gas combined cycle power plants. The proposed design utilizes novel hot and cold thermal energy storage (TES) technologies that store low-cost, off-peak electricity as thermal energy to power CCS solvent regeneration and boost plant output during periods of peak demand. The design provides an overall optimized net present value (NPV) by maximizing low carbon power to grid while prices are highest using Storworks Power’s concrete TES technology. The team also capitalizes on decades of ION Clean Energy’s (ION) development in low cost and flexible pioneering solvent technology, which has proven reductions in energy consumption and overall cost of 28% and 38%, respectively, compared with state-of-the-art CCS.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

SPS market analysis

A market analysis task included personal interviews by GE personnel and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective small solar thermal power systems (SPS) users. Over 500 firms were contacted, including three ownership classes of electric utilities, industrial firms in the top SIC codes for energy consumption, and design engineering firms. A market demand model was developed which utilizes the data base developed by personal interviews and surveys, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential markets for SPS.

Goff, H. C.↗

Next-Generation Cobalt-Free Cathodes – A Prospective Solution to the Battery Industry's Cobalt Problem*

Lithium-ion batteries are over-reliant on cobalt-containing cathodes. Current projections estimate hundreds of millions of electric vehicles (EVs) will be on the road by 2050, and this ever-growing demand threatens to deplete global cobalt reserves at an alarming rate. Moreover, cobalt supply-chain issues have significantly increased cobalt prices throughout the last decade. As such, energy storage research and development need to reduce reliance on cobalt to meet ever-growing demands for lithium-ion batteries. This chapter summarizes the science/technology gaps and potential of numerous cobalt-free Li-ion cathodes, including layered, spinel, olivine, and disordered rocksalt systems. Despite the promising performance of these Co-free cathodes, scale-up and manufacturing bottlenecks associated with these materials must also be addressed to enable widespread adoption in commercial batteries. Overall, this review broadly highlights the enormous promise of “zero-cobalt” Li-ion batteries to enable sustainable production of EVs in the coming decades.

Muralidharan, Nitin↗

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗