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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Power Plants: Pilots, Challenges, and Innovations Shaping Future Development

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) aggregate distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide grid services traditionally delivered by centralized power plants. This article reviews the current state of VPP deployment, highlighting business models, compensation mechanisms, and global pilot projects. While VPPs offer benefits such as grid flexibility, resilience, and cost savings, challenges remain in communication infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, market access, and customer engagement. To address these, we propose a scalable, privacy-preserving hierarchical VPP architecture that coordinates with distribution utilities and preserves customer data. We also present the Integrated T&D Control Room of the Future as a key test bed for validating and accelerating VPP adoption. These innovations can help transition VPPs from pilot programs to integral components of a modern, reliable power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Comparison of Clipping Detection Techniques in AC Power Time Series

In this research, a variety of methods were developed to detect clipping periods in AC power time series. AC power data streams associated with 36 unique systems across the United States were collected, and data points representing clipping periods were manually labeled by experts. Using this data set for training and validation, novel logic-based and machine learning (ML) approaches were developed to classify time series values as clipping or non-clipping. These approaches were compared to the RdTools method for detecting clipping periods. The logic-based and ML XGBoost approaches achieved F-scores of 85.0 and 77.6, respectively, when cross-validated against the manually labeled data, as compared to the current RdTools approach (F-score of 56.4), indicating a significant improvement at detecting clipping periods. Additionally, the effects of each clipping filter when evaluating system degradation rates were assessed, using 31 unique systems across the United States. Results indicate that estimated system degradation rate can vary based on the type of clipping filter used, by up to 0.6% degradation rate for some cases.

clipping↗
NASA NTRS1981

Modeling of the aircraft in-trail-following task during profile descent

The cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) system concepts enable the pilot to observe the surrounding air traffic pattern. The impact of such a system is far reaching in terms of improved safety, pilot and controller workload, and aircraft fuel efficiency. One direct payoff is the ability to distribute the ATC workload to the pilot in such tasks as merging and spacing. The CDTI application of spacing approach aircraft in the terminal area is addressed. In-trail-following/CDTI experiments were performed using realistic cockpit simulators and profile descent approach scenarios. Based on collected experimental simulator data, pilot models were developed which include state estimation, decision making and flight control aspects. These models were coupled with models of aircraft and CDTI equipment to study the dynamic phenomena and stability of strings of aircraft along various approach patterns.

Goka, T.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Jet-hadron correlations with respect to the event plane in $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV Au + Au collisions in STAR

Angular distributions of charged particles relative to jet axes are studied in $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV Au+Au collisions as a function of the jet orientation with respect to the event plane. This differential study tests the expected path-length dependence of energy loss experienced by a hard-scattered parton as it traverses the hot and dense medium formed in heavy-ion collisions. A second-order event plane is used in the analysis as an experimental estimate of the reaction plane formed by the collision impact parameter and the beam direction. Charged-particle jets with 15 < 𝑝 T,jet < 20 and 20 < 𝑝 T,jet < 40 ⁢GeV/𝑐 were reconstructed with the anti-𝑘 T algorithm with radius parameter setting of 𝑅 = 0.4 in the 20–50% centrality bin to maximize the initial-state eccentricity of the interaction region. The reaction plane fit method is implemented to remove the flow-modulated background with better precision than prior methods. Yields and widths of jet-associated charged-hadron distributions are extracted in three angular bins between the jet axis and the event plane. The event-plane (EP) dependence is further quantified by ratios of the associated yields in different EP bins. No dependence on orientation of the jet axis with respect to the event plane is seen within the uncertainties in the kinematic regime studied. This finding is consistent with a similar experimental observation by ALICE in $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 2.76 TeV Pb-Pb collision data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Navier-Stokes simulations of tip vortices for fixed and rotating helicopter blades

Flowfield and tip vortex results are presented for a hovering rotor blade at subcritical and supercritical flow conditions for both nonlifting and lifting configurations. These results are calculated numerically by solving, in a time-accurate fashion, the unsteady thin layer Navier-Stokes equations written in rotor coordinates. The lifting calculations use an induced downwash correction, estimated from a free wake analysis, to the geometric angle of attack of the blades to account for the wake effect. Comparison of numerical results with the experimental data shows very good agreement for all cases considered. Alternate methods of calculating hovering rotor flowfield as steady state flowfield on isolated fixed-blade that have the same circulation distribution as that of rotor in hover are also explored.

Srinivasan, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluating the Application of Multi-Satellite Observations in Hydrologic Modeling

When monitoring local or regional hydrosphere dynamics for applications such as agricultural productivity or drought and flooding events, it is necessary to have accurate, high-resolution estimates of terrestrial water and energy storages. Though in-situ observations provide reliable estimates of hydrologic states and fluxes, they are only capable of accurately capturing the dynamics at relatively discrete points in space and time, which makes them inadequate for characterizing the variability of the water budget across scales. In contrast, satellite-based remote sensing is ideal for providing observations of hydrological states and fluxes because it provides spatially-distributed observations at spatial and temporal scales required for regional land surface process modeling. Due to the continued progress in algorithm development and emerging satellite technology, we now have near-real time monitoring of several components of the water cycle including precipitation, soil moisture, lake and river height, terrestrial water storage, snow cover, and evapotranspiration. As these data become more readily available, their application to hydrologic modeling is becoming more common, however there remains little consensus on the most appropriate method for optimal integration and evaluation in regard to hydrological applications. Here we present two case studies operationally applying several remotely sensed products from AMSR-E, GRACE, and MODIS and discuss assimilation strategies, ease of integration and interpretation, and methods for quantifying the success of the application methodology.

Bolten, John↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Stochastic Programming [SWR-26-040]

The Quantum Stochastic Programming tool contains quantum computing algorithms for two-stage stochastic optimization, with a focus on the Unit Commitment (UC) problem in power systems. The algorithms combine Discrete Quantum Annealing (DQA) with Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) to compute expected-value objective functions over a probability distribution of wind-power scenarios. Based on: arXiv 2402.15029 - "Quantum algorithms for the two-stage stochastic unit commitment problem"

Maack, Jonathan [National Laboratory of the Rockie↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2020

Using Two-Stream Theory to Capture Fluctuations of Satellite-Perceived TOA SW Radiances Reflected from Clouds Over Ocean

Shortwave (SW) fluxes estimated from broadband radiometry rely on empirically gathered and hemispherically resolved fields of outgoing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances. This study aims to provide more accurate and precise fields of TOA SW radiances reflected from clouds over ocean by introducing a novel semiphysical model predicting radiances per narrow sun-observer geometry. This model was statistically trained using CERES-measured radiances paired with MODIS-retrieved cloud parameters as well as reanalysis-based geophysical parameters. By using radiative transfer approximations as a framework to ingest the above parameters, the new approach incorporates cloud-top effective radius and above-cloud water vapor in addition to traditionally used cloud optical depth, cloud fraction, cloud phase, and surface wind speed. A two-stream cloud albedo – serving to statistically incorporate cloud optical thickness and cloud-top effective radius – and Cox–Munk ocean reflectance were used to describe an albedo over each CERES footprint. Effective-radius-dependent asymmetry parameters were obtained empirically and separately for each viewing-illumination geometry. A simple equation of radiative transfer, with this albedo and attenuating above-cloud water vapor as inputs, was used in its log-linear form to allow for statistical optimization. We identified the two-stream functional form that minimized radiance residuals calculated against CERES observations and outperformed the state-of-the-art approach for most observer geometries outside the sun-glint and solar zenith angles between 20 and 70∘, reducing the median SD of radiance residuals per solar geometry by up to 13.2 % for liquid clouds, 1.9 % for ice clouds, and 35.8 % for footprints containing both cloud phases. Geometries affected by sun glint (constituting between 10 % and 1 % of the discretized upward hemisphere for solar zenith angles of 20 and 70∘, respectively), however, often showed weaker performance when handled with the new approach and had increased residuals by as much as 60 % compared to the state-of-the-art approach. Overall, uncertainties were reduced for liquid-phase and mixed-phase footprints by 5.76 % and 10.81 %, respectively, while uncertainties for ice-phase footprints increased by 0.34 %. Tested for a variety of scenes, we further demonstrated the plausibility of scene-wise predicted radiance fields. This new approach may prove useful when employed in angular distribution models and may result in improved flux estimates, in particular dealing with clouds characterized by small or large droplet/crystal sizes.

Two- stream theory↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding the causes of satellite–model discrepancies in aerosol–cloud interactions using near-LES simulations of marine boundary layer clouds

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) remain the largest source of uncertainty in model estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing, primarily because of deficiencies in representing aerosol–cloud microphysical processes that lead to inconsistent cloud liquid water path (LWP) responses to aerosol perturbations between observations and models. To investigate this discrepancy, we conducted a series of large-eddy-scale simulations driven by realistic meteorology over the eastern North Atlantic, and evaluated LWP susceptibility, precipitation processes, and boundary layer thermodynamics using satellite and ground-based observations. Simulated LWP responses show a strong dependence on cloud state. Non-precipitating thin clouds exhibit a modest LWP decrease with increasing cloud droplet number concentration (N d ), consistent in sign but weaker in magnitude than satellite estimates, reflecting enhanced turbulent mixing and evaporation. The largest model-observation discrepancy occurs in non-precipitating thick clouds, where simulated LWP susceptibilities are strongly positive (+0.32) while observations indicate large negative values (−0.69). This discrepancy stems from excessive precipitation driven by underestimated entrainment, overly active accretion, and overly broad drop-size distributions in polluted conditions. While our high-resolution setup mitigates the excessive drizzling common in coarser models and captures key regime transitions, these biases persist – highlighting that improved parameterizations of cloud-top processes, precipitation, and aerosol effects are needed beyond simply increasing model resolution. Additionally, misrepresented moisture inversions in reanalysis introduce a moist bias in cloud-top relative humidity, further amplifying positive LWP susceptibility. Our results also suggest that large negative N d –LWP relationships in observations may reflect internal cloud processes rather than true ACI effects.

Aerosol-cloud interaction↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining resonant and tail-based anomaly detection

In many well-motivated models of the electroweak scale, cascade decays of new particles can result in highly boosted hadronic resonances (e.g., Z / W / h ). This can make these models rich and promising targets for recently developed resonant anomaly detection methods powered by modern machine learning. We demonstrate this using the state-of-the-art classifying anomalies through outer density estimation () method applied to supersymmetry scenarios with gluino pair production. We show that , despite being model agnostic, is nevertheless competitive with dedicated cut-based searches, while simultaneously covering a much wider region of parameter space. The gluino events also populate the tails of the missing energy and H T distributions, making this a novel combination of resonant and tail-based anomaly detection. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

FEDERATED LEARNING ON STOCHASTIC NEURAL NETWORKS

Federated learning is a machine learning paradigm that leverages edge computing on client devices to optimize models while maintaining user privacy by ensuring that local data remain on the device. However, since all data are collected by clients, federated learning is susceptible to latent noise in local datasets. Factors such as limited measurement capabilities or human errors may introduce inaccuracies in client data. To address this challenge, we propose the use of a stochastic neural network as the local model within the federated learning framework. Stochastic neural networks not only facilitate the estimation of the true underlying states of the data but also enable the quantification of latent noise. We refer to our federated learning approach, which incorporates stochastic neural networks as local models, as federated stochastic neural networks. In this work we will present numerical experiments demonstrating the performance and effectiveness of our method, particularly in handling nonindependent and identically distributed data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Delay compensation in integrated communication and control systems. I - Conceptual development and analysis

A procedure for compensating for the effects of distributed network-induced delays in integrated communication and control systems (ICCS) is proposed. The problem of analyzing systems with time-varying and possibly stochastic delays could be circumvented by use of a deterministic observer which is designed to perform under certain restrictive but realistic assumptions. The proposed delay-compensation algorithm is based on a deterministic state estimator and a linear state-variable-feedback control law. The deterministic observer can be replaced by a stochastic observer without any structural modifications of the delay compensation algorithm. However, if a feedforward-feedback control law is chosen instead of the state-variable feedback control law, the observer must be modified as a conventional nondelayed system would be. Under these circumstances, the delay compensation algorithm would be accordingly changed. The separation principle of the classical Luenberger observer holds true for the proposed delay compensator. The algorithm is suitable for ICCS in advanced aircraft, spacecraft, manufacturing automation, and chemical process applications.

Luck, Rogelio↗
NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

Tropical rainfall affects the lives and economics of a majority of the Earth's population. Tropical rain systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoons, are crucial to sustaining the livelihoods of those living in the tropics. Excess rainfall can cause floods and great property and crop damage, whereas too little rainfall can cause drought and crop failure. The latent heat release during the process of precipitation is a major source of energy that drives the atmospheric circulation. This latent heat can intensify weather systems, affecting weather thousands of kilometers away, thus making tropical rainfall an important indicator of atmospheric circulation and short-term climate change. Tropical forests and the underlying soils are major sources of many of the atmosphere's trace constituents. Together, the forests and the atmosphere act as a water-energy regulating system. Most of the rainfall is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration, and the atmospheric trace constituents take part in the recycling process. Hence, the hydrological cycle provides a direct link between tropical rainfall and the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur, all important trace materials for the Earth's system. Because rainfall is such an important component in the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, land, and the biosphere, accurate measurements of rainfall are crucial to understanding the workings of the Earth-atmosphere system. The large spatial and temporal variability of rainfall systems, however, poses a major challenge to estimating global rainfall. So far, there has been a lack of rain gauge networks, especially over the oceans, which points to satellite measurement as the only means by which global observation of rainfall can be made. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan, provides visible, infrared, and microwave observations of tropical and subtropical rain systems.The satellite observations are complemented by ground radar and rain gauge measurements to validate satellite rain estimation techniques. Goddard Space Flight Center's involvement includes the observatory, four instruments, integration and testing of the observatory, data processing and distribution, and satellite operations. TRMM has a design lifetime of three years. Data generated from TRMM and archived at the GDAAC are useful not only for hydrologists, atmospheric scientists, and climatologists, but also for the health community studying infectious diseases, the ocean research community, and the agricultural community.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Machines

The advanced power electronics and electric machines (APEEM) research group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed world-class experimental and modeling capabilities for designing and evaluating efficient and reliable power electronics and electric machines thermal management systems. They also design, fabricate and characterize advanced power electronics packaging, and are developing state-of-health monitoring techniques. These researchers deliver safe, reliable, high performing, power-dense components that allow seamless integration between renewable energy sources, electric transportation, and the grid, helping to make widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption and greenhouse gas emissions reduction more feasible. This document outlines the group's major capabilities in the areas of power electronics; module development and characterization; thermal modeling and management; thermomechanical reliability analysis of devices, modules, inverters/converters, and electric machines; physics-of-failure-based reliability analysis; and microelectronics. It also overviews the group's state-of-the-art equipment for fluid-based thermal management; thermal measurement & characterization; thermomechanical reliability analysis; micro- and power electronics measurement & characterization; and prototype fabrication, as well as the group's world-class modeling and simulation capabilities.

advanced gate drivers↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting False Data Injection Attacks in Smart Grids: A Semi-Supervised Deep Learning Approach

The dependence on advanced information and communication technology increases the vulnerability in smart grids under cyber-attacks. Recent research on unobservable false data injection attacks (FDIAs) reveals the high risk of secure system operation, since these attacks can bypass current bad data detection mechanisms. To mitigate this risk, this paper proposes a data-driven learning-based algorithm for detecting unobservable FDIAs in distribution systems. We use autoencoders for efficient dimension reduction and feature extraction of measurement datasets. Further, we integrate the autoencoders into an advanced generative adversarial network (GAN) framework, which successfully detects anomalies under FDIAs by capturing the unconformity between abnormal and secure measurements. Also, considering that the datasets collected from practical power systems are partially labeled due to expensive labeling costs and missing labels, the proposed method only requires a few labeled measurement data in addition to unlabeled data for training. Numerical simulations in three-phase unbalanced IEEE 13-bus and 123-bus distribution systems validate the detection accuracy and efficiency of this method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗