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At least 685 records · Page 38

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Environmental and Societal Analysis of the US Electrical Energy Industry Based on the Water–Energy Nexus

To meet rising energy demands, power plant operations will expand, influencing the interactions between the water–energy nexus and society. However, a major challenge is integration of social dimensions within electricity generation. To address this, we generate a baseline dataset using US public data (2014–2019) from the Energy Information Administration and US Bureau of Labor Statistics. We identify the rate of energy consumed, CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions generated, and water used per MWh net electricity as well as employee wellbeing per unit MW capacity during electricity generation. Rates of energy consumption (MMBtu/MWh) decreased 4.9%, but water consumption and withdrawal (m 3 /MWh) both increased 0.93% and 0.31%, respectively. Emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x decreased 22.64%, 75% and 25% MT/MWh, respectively. Thermoelectric cooling withdrawal and consumption is led by natural gas (50.07%, 38.31%), coal (29.61%, 25.07%), and nuclear energies (13.55%, 18.99%). Electric power generation contributes 0.06 injuries–illnesses/TWh and 0.001 fatalities/TWh, of which fossil fuels contributed 70% and 15%, respectively. Fossil fuels led in average annual employment (0.02 employees/MW) with low cost salaries (USD 0.09/MW) likely due to high collective capacity, which is declining. Estimated rates in this study and framework will aid power industry transition and operational decision makers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation

As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Fourth Edition

As the world increasingly seeks low-carbon energy solutions, solar power emerges as the most abundant resource on our planet. However, the challenge of effectively harnessing this energy is crucial in the coming years. Solar energy applications such as photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power use different technologies to capitalize on sunlight. Each system has unique capabilities and requirements, underscoring the need for reliable information about solar resources across diverse installations, from residential rooftops to large-scale power plants. This is especially important for substantial projects, often exceeding $1 billion in construction costs. Before embarking on such ventures, it is imperative to obtain accurate data concerning solar resource quality and reliability at specific sites. Developers require detailed historical information, including seasonal, daily, hourly, and, ideally, subhourly variability to effectively predict a power plant's annual performance. Without these vital data, financial analyses fall short. Moreover, with the growing adoption of distributed photovoltaics, integrating these generation sources becomes critical to maintaining grid reliability and stability. By accurately forecasting generation patterns, utilities and system operators can facilitate greater integration of solar energy, thus ensuring the operational stability of the grid. The complexity and importance of these issues have prompted the foremost experts in the field to collaborate under the auspices of the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) Task 16 to publish this handbook, which summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics. The efforts focus on providing reliable data and insights that can help shape our investments in solar energy and drive a sustainable future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

WHONDRS River Corridor Surface Water Metabolites and Geochemistry from Global Sites

This dataset supports a broader study examining the character of organic matter that may be delivered to subsurface sediments via hydrologic exchange. To implement the global survey, free stream sampling kits were provided to interested volunteers throughout the world. Samples were collected with minimal constraints in terms of location, but following strict protocols, and shipped for metabolomic analysis via Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS). In addition, basic geochemistry analyses (e.g., dissolved organic matter concentration) were conducted, standardized photos of each field system were taken, and extensive metadata were captured. Sampling began in 2018 and is ongoing as of 2025. This dataset is comprised of one folders of field photos, one folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data, and one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) readme; (5) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; (6) field protocol; and (7) a subfolder with sample data. The sample data subfolder contains (1) surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) methods codes; (3) surface water FTICR methods; and (4) a subfolder of 12 Tesla (12T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains three subfolders, one containing the.xml files, one containing the CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, or .png. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.

Biogeochemistry↗

Training a Quantum Annealing Based Restricted Boltzmann Machine on Cybersecurity Data

A restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) is a generative model that could be used in effectively balancing a cybersecurity dataset because the synthetic data a RBM generates follows the probability distribution of the training data. RBM training can be performed using contrastive divergence (CD) and quantum annealing (QA). QA-based RBM training is fundamentally different from CD and requires samples from a quantum computer. We present a real-world application that uses a quantum computer. Specifically, we train a RBM using QA for cybersecurity applications. The D-Wave 2000Q has been used to implement QA. RBMs are trained on the ISCX data, which is a benchmark dataset for cybersecurity. For comparison, RBMs are also trained using CD. CD is a commonly used method for RBM training. Our analysis of the ISCX data shows that the dataset is imbalanced. We present two different schemes to balance the training dataset before feeding it to a classifier. The first scheme is based on the undersampling of benign instances. The imbalanced training dataset is divided into five sub-datasets that are trained separately. A majority voting is then performed to get the result. Our results show the majority vote increases the classification accuracy up from 90.24% to 95.68%, in the case of CD. For the case of QA, the classification accuracy increases from 74.14% to 80.04%. In the second scheme, a RBM is used to generate synthetic data to balance the training dataset. We show that both QA and CD-trained RBM can be used to generate useful synthetic data. Balanced training data is used to evaluate several classifiers. Among the classifiers investigated, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Neural Network (NN) perform better than other classifiers. They both show an accuracy of 93%. Our results show a proof-of-concept that a QA-based RBM can be trained on a 64-bit binary dataset. The illustrative example suggests the possibility to migrate many practical classification problems to QA-based techniques. Further, we show that synthetic data generated from a RBM can be used to balance the original dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Grid-Forming Frequency Shaping Control for Low-Inertia Power Systems

As power systems transit to a state of high renewable penetration, little or no presence of synchronous generators makes the prerequisite of well-regulated frequency for grid-following inverters unrealistic. Thus, there is a trend to resort to grid-forming inverters which set frequency directly. We propose a novel grid-forming frequency shaping control that is able to shape the aggregate system frequency dynamics into a first-order one with the desired steady-state frequency deviation and Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) after a sudden power imbalance. The no overshoot property resulting from the first-order dynamics allows the system frequency to monotonically move towards its new steady-state without experiencing frequency Nadir, which largely improves frequency security. We prove that our grid-forming frequency-shaping control renders the system internally stable under mild assumptions. The performance of the proposed control is verified via numerical simulations on a modified Icelandic Power Network test case.

control systems↗

Neural MUSE Analysis

Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) created data as part of the MUSE (Multi-Agency Urban Search Experiment Detector and Algorithm Test Bed) project simulating illicit nuclear materials located in various buildings along a road. In the simulation, a truck containing a radiation detector drives down the road gathering listmode data (counting the and energy of incident gamma radiation). Building materials, source shielding, driving speed, truck direction, truck location on the road, source type, and source placement are all varied between runs of the data set. This data was created using deterministic neutron transport and Monte Carlo methods through a combination of SCALE, MAVRIC, MCNP, and GADRAS. As part of a follow-on NA-22 project, two Kaggle competitions were created to determine the best algorithms for finding and identifying gamma sources in this simulated urban environment. The winning algorithm was neural network-based and had a test accuracy of 76.4% accuracy for source identification. This work seeks to build upon this work and improve the results through the application of novel machine learning techniques. As a first step, the data was classified by a simple Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) To accomplish this, the data was first preprocessed into “waterfall plots.” These plots are composed of energy vs count plots that are stacked vertically to show progression in time. The horizontal axis indicating the particle energy incorporated user defined bin spacing with options for in linear-, logarithmic-, square root-, and user-spaced bins. The z or color dimension showed the number of counts corresponding the energy-time combination. This data was then used to generate more data, by generating a local estimate of the mean of the distribution for a bin and then randomly re-sampling that bin from a Poisson distribution. Once all of this data was generated, it was fed into a well-known CNN architecture, ResNet50. The output layer of this model was removed and replaced with layers corresponding to the shape desired isotope outputs. The provided training data was used to train the classifier and the remaining testing data was used to evaluate the model. Results are soon to be forthcoming.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Resource Management Solutions

There are fewer conventional, dispatchable generation resources and more variable renewable energy (VRE) and distributed energy resources (DERs). There is more uncertainty from bulk-level VRE and net demand from distribution systems with high DER levels. FAST-DERMS aims to develop and demonstrate a scalable solution for managing uncertainties in supply and demand at the grid edge. We propose that distribution system operators (DSOs) provide firm net load forecasts to the bulk system operator's energy management system (EMS).

distributed energy resources↗

How to understand limitations of generative networks

Well-trained classifiers and their complete weight distributions provide us with a well-motivated and practicable method to test generative networks in particle physics. We illustrate their benefits for distribution-shifted jets, calorimeter showers, and reconstruction-level events. In all cases, the classifier weights make for a powerful test of the generative network, identify potential problems in the density estimation, relate them to the underlying physics, and tie in with a comprehensive precision and uncertainty treatment for generative networks.

Physics↗

Halogenated Dibenzo[ f , h ]quinoxaline Units Constructed 2D‐Conjugated Guest Acceptors for 19% Efficiency Organic Solar Cells

Abstract Halogenation of Y‐series small‐molecule acceptors (Y‐SMAs) is identified as an effective strategy to optimize photoelectric properties for achieving improved power‐conversion‐efficiencies (PCEs) in binary organic solar cells (OSCs). However, the effect of different halogenation in the 2D‐structured large π‐fused core of guest Y‐SMAs on ternary OSCs has not yet been systematically studied. Herein, four 2D‐conjugated Y‐SMAs (X‐QTP‐4F, including halogen‐free H‐QTP‐4F, chlorinated Cl‐QTP‐4F, brominated Br‐QTP‐4F, and iodinated I‐QTP‐4F) by attaching different halogens into 2D‐conjugation extended dibenzo[ f , h ]quinoxaline core are developed. Among these X‐QTP‐4F, Cl‐QTP‐4F has a higher absorption coefficient, optimized molecular crystallinity and packing, suitable cascade energy levels, and complementary absorption with PM6:L8‐BO host. Moreover, among ternary PM6:L8‐BO:X‐QTP‐4F blends, PM6:L8‐BO:Cl‐QTP‐4F obtains a more uniform and size‐suitable fibrillary network morphology, improved molecular crystallinity and packing, as well as optimized vertical phase distribution, thus boosting charge generation, transport, extraction, and suppressing energy loss of OSCs. Consequently, the PM6:L8‐BO:Cl‐QTP‐4F‐based OSCs achieve a 19.0% efficiency, which is among the state‐of‐the‐art OSCs based on 2D‐conjugated Y‐SMAs and superior to these devices based on PM6:L8‐BO host (17.70%) and with guests of H‐QTP‐4F (18.23%), Br‐QTP‐4F (18.39%), and I‐QTP‐4F (17.62%). The work indicates that halogenation in 2D‐structured dibenzo[ f , h ]quinoxaline core of Y‐SMAs guests is a promising strategy to gain efficient ternary OSCs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Stress field and interaction forces between dislocations and precipitate distributions

A computational method is developed for calculation of the stress field and interaction forces between dislocations and precipitates of arbitrary shape and distribution. The internal stress generated by precipitates due to coherency strain is implemented within the discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) framework. The s-version finite element method (s-FEM), which models a precipitate of arbitrary shape using a local mesh is used to calculate coherency stress fields. The method facilitates meshing precipitate volumes of arbitrary geometry, and multiple local meshes can be superimposed at various positions of the global mesh. Accuracy and convergence conditions of the method are established. For a single precipiate, the method is shown to be 3.5 times faster than a standard FEM calculation for the same accuracy, and the gain in speed increases with the number of precipitates. The CRSS of spherical precipitates is found to be higher than disk-shaped precipitates of the same volume fraction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The production of isolated photons in PbPb and pp collisions at $\sqrt{s_\mathrm{NN}} =$ 5.02 TeV

The transverse energy ($ {E}_{\mathrm{T}}^{\upgamma} $) spectra of photons isolated from other particles are measured using proton-proton (pp) and lead-lead (PbPb) collisions at the LHC at $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV with integrated luminosities of 27.4 pb$^{−1}$ and 404 μb$^{−1}$ for pp and PbPb data, respectively. The results are presented for photons with 25 <$ {E}_{\mathrm{T}}^{\upgamma} $< 200 GeV in the pseudorapidity range |η| < 1.44, and for different centrality intervals for PbPb collisions. Photon production in PbPb collisions is consistent with that in pp collisions scaled by the number of binary nucleon-nucleon collisions, demonstrating that photons do not interact with the quark-gluon plasma. Therefore, isolated photons can provide information about the initial energy of the associated parton in photon+jet measurements. The results are compared with predictions from the next-to-leading-order jetphox generator for different parton distribution functions (PDFs) and nuclear PDFs (nPDFs). The comparisons can help to constrain the nPDFs global fits.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗

Phase field modeling of discontinuous dynamic recrystallization in hot deformation of magnesium alloys

We have developed a quantitative phase field model of discontinuous dynamic recrystallization (PF-DDRX) for investigating grain structure evolution and its impact on mechanical response in magnesium alloy during hot deformation. A set of isothermal compression tests were conducted by Gleeble thermo-mechanical simulator and used to determine PF-DDRX model parameters such as critical stresses of recrystallization, activation energies of dislocation, grain boundaries and recrystallization grain nucleation. In the simulations, the experimentally measured average grain size and distribution were used to generate initial microstructures. The results show that the typical ‘necklace’ microstructures observed in DDRX forms at the earlier stage of recrystallization. The inhomogeneity of microstructures first increases rapidly and then decreases gradually and reaches a constant with the increase of dynamic recrystallization volume fraction. Both predicted grain structure and mechanical response are in good agreement with experimental results. This demonstrates that the model parameters determined by experimental data are reliable for the developed PF-DDRX model to predict the grain structure evolution and flow behavior of AZ80 magnesium alloy under hot deformation. This work presents a path to combine experiments and modeling to give quantitative prediction and minimize experimental cost.

magnesium alloy, Phase field method, dynamic recry↗

Hierarchically structured MoO 2 /dopamine-derived carbon spheres as intercalation electrodes for lithium-ion batteries

A hydrogen peroxide initiated sol-gel process involving molybdenum transformation in the presence of dopamine (Dopa) hydrochloride excess produced the metastable precipitate composed of polydopamine (PDopa) spheres coated with Dopa preintercalated molybdenum oxide, (Dopa) x MoO y @PDopa. The hydrothermal treatment (HT) of the (Dopa) x MoO y @PDopa precursor resulted in the simultaneous carbonization of Dopa and molybdenum reduction generating MoO 2 nanoplatelets distributed and confined on the surface of the Dopa-derived carbon matrix (HT-MoO 2 /C). The consecutive annealing (An) of the HT-MoO 2 /C sample at 600 °C under Ar atmosphere led to the formation of MoO 2 with increased Mo oxidation state and improved structural stability (AnHT-MoO 2 /C). Annealing had also further facilitated interaction between the molybdenum-derived and Dopa-derived components resulting in the modification of the carbon matrix confirmed by Raman spectroscopy. Morphology of both materials is best described as Dopa-derived carbon spheres decorated with MoO 2 nanoplatelets. These integrated metal oxide and carbon structures were tested as electrodes for lithium-ion batteries in the potential window that corresponds to the intercalation mechanism of charge storage. The AnHT-MoO 2 /C electrode showed enhanced electrochemical activity, with an initial specific discharge capacity of 260 mAh/g and capacity retention of 67% after 50 cycles, compared to the HT-MoO 2 /C electrode which exhibited an initial specific discharge capacity of 235 mAh g –1 and capacity retention of 47% after 50 cycles. The rate capability experiments revealed that the capacity of 93 mAh/g and 120 mAh/g was delivered by the HT-MoO 2 /C and AnHT-MoO 2 /C electrodes, respectively, when the current density was increased to 100 mA/g. Here, the improved specific capacity, electrochemical stability, and rate capability achieved after annealing were attributed to higher crystallinity of MoO 2 , increased oxidation state of Mo, and formation of the tighter MoO 2 /carbon contact accompanied by the annealing assisted interaction between MoO 2 and Dopa-derived carbon.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗