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NASA NTRS1986

Aircrew coordination and decisionmaking: Peer ratings of video tapes made during a full mission simulation

Six professionally active, retired captains rated the coordination and decisionmaking performances of sixteen aircrews while viewing videotapes of a simulated commercial air transport operation. The scenario featured a required diversion and a probable minimum fuel situation. Seven point Likert-type scales were used in rating variables on the basis of a model of crew coordination and decisionmaking. The variables were based on concepts of, for example, decision difficulty, efficiency, and outcome quality; and leader-subordin ate concepts such as person and task-oriented leader behavior, and competency motivation of subordinate crewmembers. Five-front-end variables of the model were in turn dependent variables for a hierarchical regression procedure. The variance in safety performance was explained 46%, by decision efficiency, command reversal, and decision quality. The variance of decision quality, an alternative substantive dependent variable to safety performance, was explained 60% by decision efficiency and the captain's quality of within-crew communications. The variance of decision efficiency, crew coordination, and command reversal were in turn explained 78%, 80%, and 60% by small numbers of preceding independent variables. A principle component, varimax factor analysis supported the model structure suggested by regression analyses.

Murphy, M. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy - Development of Swarm Autonomy Capability and Scalability for Spacecraft

The Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy project is developing a suite of software tools that enable an operator to command and receive data from a swarm as a single entity, enable a swarm to autonomously coordinate its actions via distributed decision making and reactive closed-loop control, and model swarm behavior in the presence of anomalies or failures. Our use case is the mapping of the electron density of the ionosphere using radio tomography by coordinating the selection of appropriate GPS channels, and by recording Total Electron Count (TEC) measurements. DSA will be demonstrated onboard the NASA Ames Starling mission – a swarm of four small, LEO spacecraft, scheduled to launch in 2021. We will also perform a ground demonstration with simulated and hardware-in-the-loop elements, to validate the tools for controlling swarms of up to 100 assets. The capability to communicate autonomously between the swarm satellites is demonstrated via a sophisticated simulation architecture. Historical Plasmasphere TEC data obtained via dual-band Novatel GPS Receivers are utilized as a representative input dataset for the swarm. The representative TEC data and GPS satellite observability information is fed to the autonomous software package in place of a true real-time ground data collection process. The swarm satellites actively share status updates amongst one another and utilize multi-agent decision making to optimally identify regions of interest in the TEC distribution. The software, aware of the bandwidth limitations of the swarm satellites, prioritizes explorative measurements, which define the range of observability for the satellites, as well as exploitative measurements, which focus on maximizing the observance potential of regions with prolonged, elevated TEC density. The science of this study can ultimately be used to determine the dynamics and coupling of Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere and their response to solar and terrestrial inputs. The findings can be applied to the imaging of critical, transient phenomena in the magnetosphere in later missions. Meanwhile, the swarm autonomy capabilities have far reaching potential in future satellite missions. As an experimental demonstration of the autonomous capabilities of the network, a message is first printed within a core Flight Executive (cFE) application. Two cFE applications that communicate with one another within the same core Flight System (cFS) are shown. Communication between mission applications on the internal cFE bus is extended to utilize Data Distribution Service (DDS) for vehicle-to-vehicle networking. The DDS middleware provides reliable delivery, routing, and topic subscription features over User Datagram Protocol (UDP). Leveraging Linux containerization, a networked set of satellite instances are generated by script to simulate swarm behavior. Swarm commanding and synchronization through the network is demonstrated under various topologies and data-loss conditions. Finally, autonomous swarm scalability from 2 satellites to 100 satellites is shown.

Distributed Autonomy↗

NASA NTRS2020

Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy (DSA): Development of Swarm Autonomy Capability and Scalability for Spacecraft

The Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy project is developing a suite of software tools that enable an operator to command and receive data from a swarm as a single entity, enable a swarm to autonomously coordinate its actions via distributed decision making and reactive closed-loop control, and model swarm behavior in the presence of anomalies or failures. Our use case is the mapping of the electron density of the ionosphere using radio tomography by coordinating the selection of appropriate GPS channels, and by recording Total Electron Count (TEC)measurements. DSA will be demonstrated on board the NASA Ames Starling mission a swarm of four small, LEO spacecraft, scheduled to launch in 2021. We will also perform a ground demonstration with simulated and hardware-in-the-loop elements, to validate the tools for controlling swarms of up to 100 assets.The capability to communicate autonomously between the swarm satellites is demonstrated via a sophisticated simulation architecture. Historical Plasma sphere TEC data obtained via dual-band Novatel GPS Receivers are utilized as a representative input data set for the swarm. The representative TEC data and GPS satellite observability information is fed to the autonomous software package in place of a true real-time ground data collection process. The swarm satellites actively share status updates amongst one another and utilize multi-agent decision making to optimally identify regions of interest in the TEC distribution. The software,aware of the bandwidth limitations of the swarm satellites, prioritizes explorative measurements,which define the range of observability for the satellites, as well as exploitative measurements,which focus on maximizing the observance potential of regions with prolonged, elevated TEC density. The science of this study can ultimately be used to determine the dynamics and coupling of Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere and their response to solar and terrestrial inputs. The findings can be applied to the imaging of critical, transient phenomena in the magnetosphere in later missions. Meanwhile, the swarm autonomy capabilities have far reaching potential in future satellite missions.As an experimental demonstration of the autonomous capabilities of the network, a message is first printed within a core Flight Executive (cFE) application. Two cFE applications that communicate with one another within the same core Flight System (cFS) are shown.Communication between mission applications on the internal cFE bus is extended to utilize Data Distribution Service (DDS) for vehicle-to-vehicle networking. The DDS middle ware provides reliable delivery, routing, and topic subscription features over User Data gram Protocol (UDP).Leveraging Linux containerization, a networked set of satellite instances are generated by script to simulate swarm behavior. Swarm commanding and synchronization through the network is demonstrated under various topologies and data-loss conditions. Finally, autonomous swarms calability from 2 satellites to 100 satellites is shown.

Fugate, Jason↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

FATE: The drifting Fish Aggregating Device (dFAD) TrajEctory Modeling Tool for Marine Protected Area Management

Drifting fish aggregating devices (dFADs) routinely enter marine protected areas (MPAs) and may undermine MPA protections by drifting out of the MPA with the aggregated fish biomass, or grounding and damaging sensitive coral reef habitats. MPA managers must decide whether to deploy resources in response to dFAD intrusions. To address this issue, we propose to quantify dFAD activity in relation to ocean currents, fish biomass, and animal telemetry at Palmyra Atoll, part of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument in the central Pacific Ocean. Specifically, we propose to develop the dFAD TrajEctory Tool (FATE). FATE is an innovative decision support tool that will use NASA observations and numerical models to predict future dFAD trajectories and inform TNC and USFWS whether they should deploy tactical resources (boats, personnel) to monitor, intercept, or retrieve dFADs that have entered the Refuge. The objectives are to use NASA observational constraints on ocean winds and currents to assist with the ecological management of the Palmyra Atoll NWR and MPA. Specifically, we will deliver an operational software tool that quantifies the grounding risk associated with each tracked dFAD and decision support for grounding risk mitigation via intercept at sea. This project addresses Element 3.3: Protected area management of the 2022 Ecological Conservation Solicitation by developing a tool needed by MPA managers to make tactical and strategic decisions focused on improving the effectiveness of MPAs. By quantifying the riskof dFADs, this project will help monitor and better inform the deployment of tactical (ships/personnel) and strategic (legislative) resources to better manage MPAs. This project is a collaboration between The Nature Conservancy, who operate long-term projects within the Palmyra MPA, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, who have the authority to make decisions related to its management. We expect that the results of our proposal will benefit marine resources within the Palmyra MPA and could be transferred to other remote MPAs within the US and other island nations within the Pacific Ocean.

TrajEctory↗

NASA NTRS2023

Approaches for Validation of Lighting Environments in Realtime Lunar South Pole Simulations

NASA’s Artemis campaign is making heavy use of simulation to help return humans to the lunar surface by the end of the decade. There are several aspects of the lunar surface and its environment which must be accurately modeled before these simulations can be relied upon to influence decisions being made under these programs. Digital Lunar Exploration Sites, a paper submitted to the 2022 IEEE Aerospace Conference, outlined the process used to generate the lunar surface in a digital environment. This paper will expand upon this topic and delve into the steps being taken by the NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) to properly verify and validate these simulations, with a focus on the visual aspects of the environment. Natural lighting validation relies in part on the wealth of data generated during the Apollo program. Many images taken by Apollo astronauts on the lunar surface have been replicated in the simulated environments to gain confidence in the accuracy of terrain and lighting models. However, because the environment the Artemis astronauts will experience at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) is dissimilar from the near-equatorial Apollo sites, other validation techniques must be applied. At the LSP, the sun crests only about 1.5 degrees above the horizon and when combined with the lack of a lunar atmosphere, lighting in this region is often very different than what a human would experience on Earth. Solar illumination, earthshine, human eye response, solar blooming, lunar regolith optical properties, and shadows cast by rocks and crater walls will play a significant role in an astronaut’s ability to safely conduct an Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) or perform a traverse with a lunar rover. Approaches for validation of these aspects of the rendered LSP environment are considered in this paper. In addition to natural lighting, approaches for the validation of artificial lighting models at the LSP are discussed. The JSC Lighting Lab has been studying the illumination profile of the Exploration Informatics Subsystem (xINFO) lighting on the Exploration EVA Mobility Unit (xEMU). How these lights interact with the solar illumination and the shadows being cast on the lunar surface is of particular interest, so the validity of models representing these lights in a human-in-the-loop virtual reality environment becomes very important. This paper also touches on some of the simulation performance considerations when a Human in the Loop (HITL) is present, which drives the need for realtime rendering of the environment. Natural and artificial lighting will play a crucial role to decisions being made when planning and executing missions at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) and it is vitally important to understand the LSP environment before we return.

Lunar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Rendered Natural and Artificial Lighting Environments in Real Time Lunar South Pole Simulations

NASA’s Artemis campaign is making heavy use of simulation to help return humans to the lunar surface by the end of the decade. There are several aspects of the lunar surface and its environment which must be accurately modeled before these simulations can be relied upon to influence decisions being made under these programs. Digital Lunar Exploration Sites, a paper submitted to the 2022 IEEE Aerospace Conference, outlined the process used to generate the lunar surface in a digital environment. This paper will expand upon this topic and delve into the steps being taken by the NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) to properly verify and validate these simulations, with a focus on the visual aspects of the environment. Natural lighting validation relies in part on the wealth of data generated during the Apollo program. Many images taken by Apollo astronauts on the lunar surface have been replicated in the simulated environments to gain confidence in the accuracy of terrain and lighting models. However, because the environment the Artemis astronauts will experience at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) is dissimilar from the near-equatorial Apollo sites, other validation techniques must be applied. At the LSP, the sun crests only about three degrees above the horizon and when combined with the lack of a lunar atmosphere, lighting in this region is often very different than what a human would experience on Earth. Solar illumination, earthshine, human eye response, solar blooming, lunar regolith optical properties, and shadows cast by rocks and crater walls will play a significant role in an astronaut’s ability to safely conduct an Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) or perform a traverse with a lunar rover. Approaches for validation of these aspects of the rendered LSP environment are considered in this paper. In addition to natural lighting, approaches for the validation of artificial lighting models at the LSP are discussed. The JSC Lighting Lab has been studying the illumination profile of the Exploration Infomatics Subsystem (xINFO) lighting on the Exploration EVA Mobility Unit (xEMU). How these lights interact with the solar illumination and the shadows being cast on the lunar surface is of particular interest, so the validity of models representing these lights in a human-in-the-loop virtual reality environment becomes very important. This paper also touches on some of the simulation performance considerations when a Human in the Loop (HITL) is present, which drives the need for real time rendering of the environment. Natural and artificial lighting will play a crucial role to decisions being made when planning and executing missions at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) and it is vitally important to understand the LSP environment before we return.

Lunar↗

NASA NTRS2004

Regional Assimilation of NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NW S forecast operations and decision-making. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), is expected to advance climate research and weather prediction into the 21 st century. It is one of six instruments onboard Aqua, a satellite that is part of NASA s Earth Observing System. AIRS, along with two partner microwave sounding instruments, represents the most advanced atmospheric sounding system ever deployed in space. The system is capable of measuring the atmospheric temperature in the troposphere with radiosonde accuracies of 1 K over 1 km-thick layers under both clear and cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived moisture profiles will exceed that obtained by radiosondes. It is imperative that the scientific community is prepared to take full advantage of next-generation satellite data that will become available within the next decade. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure designed to optimally assimilate AIRS data at high spatial resolution over both land and ocean. The assimilation system used in this study is the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory used extensively around the globe. Results will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, optimal assimilation strategies, and the impact of the AIRS data on subsequent numerical forecasts at 12 km produced by the next generation Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

NASA NTRS2024

A Computational Framework for Making Early Design Decisions in Deep Space Habitats

The dynamics of systems of systems often involve complex interactions among the individual systems, making the implications of design choices challenging to predict. Design features in such systems may trigger unexpected behaviors or result in large variations in safety, performance or resilience. To provide a means of simulating such systems for aiding in these decisions, we have developed a prototype tool, the control-oriented dynamic computational modeling tool (CDCM). The CDCM provides rapid simulation capabilities to perform trade studies in systems of systems. The general class of systems of systems that we aim to examine involve multiple hazards, damage, cascading consequences, repair and recovery. We especially focus on systems-of-systems that incorporate a health management system (HMS) that can monitor the state of the habitat and make decisions about actions to take. In this paper we describe the features of the CDCM, the architecture we devised for simulation of systems-of-systems, the unique functionalities of this tool, and we provide a demonstration of the capabilities by performing two illustrative examples. We articulate the use of this tool for making early design decisions and demonstrate its use for trade studies that consider a model of a deep space habitat. We also share some experiences and lessons that may be useful for others seeking to address similar problems.

Amir Behjat↗

NASA NTRS2013

PRA and Conceptual Design

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

DeMott, Diana↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Integrated Medical Model

The goals of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) are to develop an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to crew health and mission planners and to help align science, technology, and operational activities intended to optimize crew health, safety, and mission success. Presentation slides address scope and approach, beneficiaries of IMM capabilities, history, risk components, conceptual models, development steps, and the evidence base. Space adaptation syndrome is used to demonstrate the model's capabilities.

Kerstman, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1997

Using APEX to Model Anticipated Human Error: Analysis of a GPS Navigational Aid

The interface development process can be dramatically improved by predicting design facilitated human error at an early stage in the design process. The approach we advocate is to SIMULATE the behavior of a human agent carrying out tasks with a well-specified user interface, ANALYZE the simulation for instances of human error, and then REFINE the interface or protocol to minimize predicted error. This approach, incorporated into the APEX modeling architecture, differs from past approaches to human simulation in Its emphasis on error rather than e.g. learning rate or speed of response. The APEX model consists of two major components: (1) a powerful action selection component capable of simulating behavior in complex, multiple-task environments; and (2) a resource architecture which constrains cognitive, perceptual, and motor capabilities to within empirically demonstrated limits. The model mimics human errors arising from interactions between limited human resources and elements of the computer interface whose design falls to anticipate those limits. We analyze the design of a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) device used for radical and navigational decisions in small yacht recalls. The analysis demonstrates how human system modeling can be an effective design aid, helping to accelerate the process of refining a product (or procedure).

VanSelst, Mark↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Role of PHM in Autonomous Decision-Making: Aerospace applications

There is an increased need for onboard decision-making capabilities in cyber-physical systems be it in energy, automotive, aviation, space, or other industries as they aim for increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission assurance capabilities. Emerging next-gen technologies such as multi-rover planetary missions, distributed satellites, unmanned ground and aerial vehicle operations and smart grid systems rely on in-time risk assessment and autonomous decision-making. One critical piece of the autonomy puzzle is reliable prediction of system behavior under time-varying and potentially uncertain environmental conditions. Further, if agent states change during operation such as initiation of faults or degradation, reliable diagnostic tools need to be investigated. In this tutorial, we will revise approaches that integrates existing physics-based and data-driven models of agents interacting with probability models of the environment and component operation state. Role of existing PHM methodologies as they feed into decision-making under uncertainty will be studied. Balancing critical trade-offs between high-fidelity prognostic models, prediction time-horizons and the computational requirements for in-time cost-effective decision-making will be discussed through the implementation of surrogate models. Finally, the audience will be introduced to a real-time application of in-time trajectory planning of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on its PHM assessments under uncertain and varying wind conditions.

decision-making↗

NASA NTRS2006

Extending NASA Research Results to Benefit Society: Rapid Prototyping for Coastal Applications

The mission of the NASA Applied Sciences Program is to expand and accelerate the use of NASA research results to benefit society in 12 application areas of national priority. ONe of the program's major challenges is to perform a quick, efficient, and detailed review (i.e., prototyping) of the large number of combinations of NASA observations and results from Earth system models that may be used by a wide range of decision support tools. A Rapid Prototyping Capacity (RPC) is being developed to accelerate the use of NASA research results. Here, we present the conceptual framework of the Rapid Prototyping Capacity within the context of quickly assessing the efficacy of NASA research results and technologies to support the Coastal Management application. An initial RPC project designed to quickly evaluate the utility of moderate-resolution MODIS products for calibrating/validating coastal sediment transport models is also presented.

Glorioso, Mark V.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Evaluation of image quality

This presentation outlines in viewgraph format a general approach to the evaluation of display system quality for aviation applications. This approach is based on the assumption that it is possible to develop a model of the display which captures most of the significant properties of the display. The display characteristics should include spatial and temporal resolution, intensity quantizing effects, spatial sampling, delays, etc. The model must be sufficiently well specified to permit generation of stimuli that simulate the output of the display system. The first step in the evaluation of display quality is an analysis of the tasks to be performed using the display. Thus, for example, if a display is used by a pilot during a final approach, the aesthetic aspects of the display may be less relevant than its dynamic characteristics. The opposite task requirements may apply to imaging systems used for displaying navigation charts. Thus, display quality is defined with regard to one or more tasks. Given a set of relevant tasks, there are many ways to approach display evaluation. The range of evaluation approaches includes visual inspection, rapid evaluation, part-task simulation, and full mission simulation. The work described is focused on two complementary approaches to rapid evaluation. The first approach is based on a model of the human visual system. A model of the human visual system is used to predict the performance of the selected tasks. The model-based evaluation approach permits very rapid and inexpensive evaluation of various design decisions. The second rapid evaluation approach employs specifically designed critical tests that embody many important characteristics of actual tasks. These are used in situations where a validated model is not available. These rapid evaluation tests are being implemented in a workstation environment.

Pavel, M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA-Modified Precipitation Products to Improve EPA Nonpoint Source Water Quality Modeling for the Chesapeake Bay

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. Ninety percent of the impairments are typically caused by nonpoint sources. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires States to monitor the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted", for any watershed in the U.S.. In response to this mandate, the EPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a Decision Support Tool (DST) for assessing pollution and to guide the decision making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program -- Fortran (HSPF), computes daily stream flow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, stream flow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better stream flow statistics and, ultimately, in improved water quality assessment.

Nigro, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2026

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra↗