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DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the behavioral realism of energy system models in light of the consumer adoption literature

Effective policymaking to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions demands an understanding of the complex drivers of, and barriers to, consumer adoption behavior via behaviorally realistic energy system models. Existing models tend to oversimplify by focusing on homogenized financial factors while neglecting consumer heterogeneity and non-monetary influences. This study develops and applies a comprehensive framework for evaluating the behavioral realism of consumer adoption models, informed by the adoption literature. It introduces a typology for factors influencing low-carbon technology adoption decisions: monetary and non-monetary factors relating to household characteristics, psychology, technological attributes, and contextual conditions. Next, reviews of the consumer adoption and decision-making literature identify the most influential adoption factor categories for distributed solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and air-source heat pumps. Finally, the extent to which a selection of energy system models accounts for these adoption factors is assessed. Existing models predominantly emphasize the economic aspects of technology, which are generally identified as the most important factors. Where the models fall short — in considering moderately important factor categories — sector-specific and agent-based models can offer more behaviorally realistic insights. This study sheds light on which types of factors are most important for consumer adoption decisions and investigates how well current models rise to the challenge of behavioral realism. The end-to-end analysis presented enables internally consistent comparisons across models and energy technologies. This research advances timely conversations on consumer adoption. It could inform more behaviorally realistic energy system modeling, and thereby more effective decarbonization policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid, efficient reduction of iron oxide with ammonia

Reducing iron oxide to iron metal with fossil fuels produces circa 4% of annual anthropogenic CO 2 , ca. 2 Gt/a, as direct chemical emissions from the process. Using ammonia instead of coke—releasing only water and nitrogen as byproducts—could be a widely deployable method of decarbonizing industrial ironmaking, because ammonia carries hydrogen and can be transported easily worldwide. However, initial reports suggest that the reaction of ammonia with iron oxide is slow and inefficient, completed only in hours and using only a few percent of the ammonia supplied. Drawing on thermodynamic and kinetic analysis of the reaction, we explored high-temperature, high-flow reaction conditions designed to increase the reaction rate and the ammonia utilization. We report the reduction of iron oxide in 1 min while using 64% of the ammonia supplied. We show that these insights translate to the gram scale and the reduction of pelletized ore, a common form used industrially.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Direct 2,3-Butanediol Conversion to Butene-Rich C 3+ Olefins over Copper-Modified 2D Pillared MFI: Consequence of Reduced Diffusion Length

2,3-Butanediol (2,3-BDO), a critical C 4 platform chemical derived from biomass, syngas, or CO 2 , can be converted to C 3+ olefins, serving as important renewable feedstocks for producing sustainable aviation fuels to decarbonize the hard-to-electrify air transportation sector. Herein, we report a bifunctional Cu-modified diffusion-free 2D pillared MFI catalyst (Cu/PMFI) which can selectively catalyze 2,3-BDO conversion to butene-rich C 3+ olefins (95% selectivity at 97% conversion, 523 K). 2,3-BDO conversion to butenes over Cu/PMFI primarily occurs via methyl ethyl ketone intermediate while 2-methyl propanal is also observed as another minor dehydration product that leads to butene formation. In comparison with a control mesoporous Cu/ZSM-5 sample prepared by the postsynthetic approach, Cu/PMFI shows favorable C 3+ olefin selectivity (95% over Cu/PMFI vs 80% over Cu/ZSM-5 at ~5.1 h TOS). The coke formation over Cu/PMFI is dramatically suppressed by >50% in contrast to Cu/ZSM-5 in 90 h 2,3-BDO conversion due to the reduced diffusion length. Cu/PMFI also favors butene formation and minimizes nonbutene C 3+ olefins by inhibiting the downstream oligomerization and cracking reactions. This study highlights the usefulness of the diffusion-free 2D PMFI materials in catalytic conversion of biomass-derived platform molecules and the significance of diffusion impact on catalyst coke formation and product distributions.

2,3-butanediol↗

DOE OSTI2025

Net-Zero Ethylene: On the Sustainability, Economics, and Scalability of Synthetic and Fossil Production Pathways

The ethylene industry has contributed over 260 million tons of CO 2 annually, warranting a more sustainable approach. The conversion of CO 2 and H 2 O into ethylene is an appealing technology capable of decoupling chemical production from fossil fuels. However, the large energy demand from this process can potentially lead to adverse environmental impacts. Here, in this article, we critically analyze the economic viability, environmental impact, and scalability of the conversion of CO 2 to ethylene via electrochemical reduction (CO 2 R) and compare this with those of CO 2 -neutral fossil routes utilizing carbon capture and direct air capture. Ethylene derived from CO 2 may be economically competitive under optimistic conditions; however, its large energy requirements pose environmental and scalability challenges. Meeting forecast 2050 ethylene demand using CO 2 R would require half of all electricity produced globally today, and, if powered by solar PV, may have greater CO 2 emissions than current petrochemical ethylene production, negating the purpose of this technology. Using Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Capture to decarbonize petrochemical pathways would require roughly an order of magnitude less energy but would have disproportionate health and climate impacts. Lastly, the analysis highlights the importance of low-carbon energy sources to ensure sustainable CO 2 R ethylene production.

CO2R↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermophotovoltaic efficiency of 40%

Thermophotovoltaics (TPVs) convert predominantly infrared wavelength light to electricity via the photovoltaic effect, and can enable approaches to energy storage and conversion that use higher temperature heat sources than the turbines that are ubiquitous in electricity production today. Since the first demonstration of 29% efficient TPVs (Fig. 1a) using an integrated back surface reflector and a tungsten emitter at 2,000°C (ref. 10), TPV fabrication and performance have improved. However, despite predictions that TPV efficiencies can exceed 50%, the demonstrated efficiencies are still only as high as 32%, albeit at much lower temperatures below 1,300 C (refs. 13,14,15). Here we report the fabrication and measurement of TPV cells with efficiencies of more than 40% and experimentally demonstrate the efficiency of high-bandgap tandem TPV cells. The TPV cells are two-junction devices comprising III–V materials with bandgaps between 1.0 and 1.4 eV that are optimized for emitter temperatures of 1,900–2,400°C. The cells exploit the concept of band-edge spectral filtering to obtain high efficiency, using highly reflective back surface reflectors to reject unusable sub-bandgap radiation back to the emitter. A 1.4/1.2 eV device reached a maximum efficiency of (41.1 ± 1)% operating at a power density of 2.39 W cm –2 and an emitter temperature of 2,400°C. A 1.2/1.0 eV device reached a maximum efficiency of (39.3 ± 1)% operating at a power density of 1.8 W cm–2 and an emitter temperature of 2,127°C. These cells can be integrated into a TPV system for thermal energy grid storage to enable dispatchable renewable energy. This creates a pathway for thermal energy grid storage to reach sufficiently high efficiency and sufficiently low cost to enable decarbonization of the electricity grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Operations: The Evolution of Distributed Energy Resources [Guest Editorial]

Utilities around the world are experiencing change with the increasing digitalization of their systems and those of their customers. Efforts to decarbonize the electric power system have led to growth in renewable energy resources, particularly distributed energy resources (DERs), such as generation, storage, and flexible load, both in front of and behind the meter. As this change occurs in any given utility service area, new tools, such as advanced distribution management systems (ADMSs), are needed to manage utility operations, planning, and business issues, some of which are discussed here.

distributed energy resources, DER, decarbonize, re↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Impact of Renewable Energy Sources to Achieve Net Zero Emissions

The mass generation of green energy through the pathway of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), is one of the major decisive components contributing to the concept of decarbonization. The energy sector assessment reveals that out of per kWh energy produced, renewable energy emits between 9 and 1000 gCO2 equivalent on a life-cycle basis. Contemplating the literature and the latest reports released by world-wide energy department(s), this study presents a comprehensive concept of carbon footprint, its causes and effects including major impact on biodiversity and human life. The study discusses the substantial steps taken by developing countries like India in leveraging RES for the production of energy and its progressive impact on ecology. The discussion would be inclusive of major change and transformation which has brought significant drop of 16% in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by installation of 104.9 GW of RES excluding Hydro. The appropriate steps taken forward therefore align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nation (UN) in achieving net zero emission (NZE).

decarbonization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Role of water in fracture of modified silicate glasses

Decarbonizing the glass industry requires alternative melting technology, as current industrial melting practices rely heavily on fossil fuels. Hydrogen has been proposed as an alternative to carbon-based fuels, but the ensuing consequences on the mechanical behavior of the glass remain to be clarified. A critical distinction between hydrogen and carbon-based fuels is the increased generation of water during combustion, which raises the equilibrium solubility of water in the melt and alters the behavior of the resulting glass. A series of five silicate glasses with 80% silica and variable [Na 2 O]/([H 2 O] + [Na 2 O]) ratios were simulated using molecular dynamics to elucidate the effects of water on fracture. Several fracture toughness calculation methods were used in combination with atomistic fracture simulations to examine the effects of hydroxyl content on fracture behavior. Here, this study reveals that the crack propagation pathway is a key metric to understanding fracture toughness. Notably, the fracture propagation path favors hydrogen sites over sodium sites, offering a possible explanation of the experimentally observed effects of water on fracture properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Science, Engineering, and Validation of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal and Storage

Scenarios to stabilize global climate and meet international climate agreements require rapid reductions in human carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, often augmented by substantial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. While some ocean-based removal techniques show potential promise as part of a broader CDR and decarbonization portfolio, no marine approach is ready yet for deployment at scale because of gaps in both scientific and engineering knowledge. Marine CDR spans a wide range of biotic and abiotic methods, with both common and technique-specific limitations. Further targeted research is needed on CDR efficacy, permanence, and additionality as well as on robust validation methods—measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification—that are essential to demonstrate the safe removal and long-term storage of CO 2 . Engineering studies are needed on constraints including scalability, costs, resource inputs, energy demands, and technical readiness. Research on possible co-benefits, ocean acidification effects, environmental and social impacts, and governance is also required.

climate mitigation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Chalkboard 2 - How to Make Clean Hydrogen

Clean hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier that can be produced from water and sustainable energy sources such as wind, solar, and nuclear. Therefore, clean hydrogen is one of the best ways to not only decarbonize the energy supply system, but also address the zero-emission challenges specific to large-carbon emitting industries that are difficult to separate from fossil fuels. To help achieve the Biden Administration's goal of a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emissions by 2050, several tens of millions of metric tons of clean, low-cost hydrogen will be needed annually. The HydroGEN Advanced Water Splitting Materials (AWSM) Consortium was established in 2016 as part of the Energy Materials Network (EMN) under the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office to enhance the performance, improve the durability, and reduce the cost of clean hydrogen production technologies, and it is helping to advance the H2@Scale vision.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogen: Targeting $1/kg in 1 Decade

The societal energy system is evolving rapidly as the impacts of our existing energy system are better appreciated and technological advances have dramatically decreased the cost of renewable resources. Simultaneously, the importance of energy transfer across timeframes and the difficulty of decarbonizing the industrial loads and transportation demands using electricity are being recognized. At the center of this need is achieving low-cost clean hydrogen. The U.S. Department of Energy launched the Hydrogen Energy EarthShot which seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $1 per 1 kilogram in one decade. Reaching the $1/kg goal is dependent on the evolution of the electrical energy system to increase renewable energy deployment and low electricity costs; advances in electrolysis technology and manufacturing readiness; and infrastructure build-out and hydrogen market establishment that results in the ability to make, move, store, and use clean hydrogen economically while spurring job creation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sustainability Engineering: Challenges, Technologies, and Applications

Sustainability Engineering: Challenges, Technologies, and Applications focuses on emerging topics within sustainability science and engineering, including the circular economy, advanced recycling technologies, decarbonization, renewable energy, and waste valorization. Readers will learn the trends driving today's sustainability research and innovation as well as the latest in sustainable process technologies. This book: addresses emerging sustainability development challenges, progress, and disruptive technologies; discusses biological sustainability, recycling technologies, and sustainable process design and manufacture; and features a comprehensive view from renowned experts who are leaders in their respective research areas. This work is aimed at an interdisciplinary audience of engineers and scientists working on solutions to advance the development and application of sustainable technologies, including - but not limited to - chemical and environmental engineers.

advanced recycling technologies↗

DOE OSTI2025

Compact Absorber Technology Leads to Significant Reduction in the Cost of Point Source CO 2 Capture

The size of columns in traditional absorption-based processes for CO 2 capture contributes significantly to the overall capital cost. A demonstrated method to reduce the cost of point source CO 2 capture, focusing on reducing the absorber height by increasing the liquid-to-gas reaction contact area and decreasing the CO 2 diffusion resistance without increasing gas-side pressure drop is presented along with techno-economic analysis results. Bench-scale tests on the unique Compact Absorber showed overall CO 2 mass transfer enhancement of varying degrees compared to a traditional packed column for similar process conditions, demonstrating that a 60+% reduction in size of a typical post-combustion absorber with a packing height of 70-100 ft and total height of 150-180 ft can be achieved. The techno-economic analysis showed significant cost reductions when the Compact Absorber is combined with other transformative aspects of the University of Kentucky Institute for Decarbonization and Energy Advancement point source CO 2 capture process compared to the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory pertinent reference case for pulverized coal plants with CO 2 capture. Here, a levelized cost of electricity excluding CO 2 transportation and storage of $\$95.6$/MWh was estimated, which is a 9% reduction, with a total capital cost contribution of $45/MWh, which is a 12% reduction. Additionally, a breakeven CO 2 sales price also referred to as the cost of CO 2 capture, of $36.70/tonne was estimated when the UK hindered primary amine solvent is used, which is a 20% reduction compared to the reference case.

CO2 capture↗

DOE OSTI2021

Renewable Thermal Energy Systems Designed for Industrial Process Solutions in Multiple Industries

The need for renewable heat in industry is vital for the next decade and beyond. Industrial decarbonization is a key area that must be accelerated, to foster the removal of fossil fuels from the provision of heat, especially at low temperatures. This paper looks at the development and results of case studies for understanding the economics and potential for renewable thermal energy systems (RTES), particularly in hybrid configurations to provide industrial process heat (IPH). For the case studies, these include non-concentrating e.g., heat pumps, and concentrating collectors e.g., parabolic trough collectors and direct steam generation (DSG)-linear Fresnel collectors (LFCs). The results show that a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of $6-$8 per million British Thermal Units (MMBTU) is possible, depending on the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and the system sizing e.g., to increase the solar fractions. In Arizona for example, with a DNI of 7.36 kWh/m2/day, the base case for the DSG-LFC system with 6hrs of thermal energy storage could potentially meet a 1 MWth load 80% of the year.

concentrated solar thermal↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Operational Analysis of U.S. Power Systems with Increased Electrification and Demand-Side Flexibility

This report provides a high-resolution U.S. national-scale power systems assessment of scenarios with widespread electrification using detailed grid simulations. We find that high electrification scenarios envisioned in the Electrification Futures Study can be operated at the hourly level to meet future increased levels of electrified demand and, under the most aggressive cases, with up to 66% of generation from wind and solar technologies. The analysis also examines the value of flexibility from demand by supporting system operability under high electrification and high renewable systems. Demand-side flexibility—especially flexibility from newly electrified loads—is found to enhance the operational efficiency by reducing VRE curtailment and increasing utilization of generators with lower operating costs. It can also enhance the ability of electrification to decarbonize the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Hybrid-Energy Technology for Power and Industrial Heat with Near-Zero or Negative CO 2 Emissions

Major contributors to global CO 2 emissions include electricity (27%) and industry (23%), such as cement manufacturing (8%). Using post-combustion technology to reduce CO 2 emissions by 85-90% could increase the cost of generating electricity with fossil fuel by 40-70%, while increasing cement-manufacturing cost by 75-140%. Both sectors are under pressure to reduce CO 2 emissions and are seeking cost-effective, energy-efficient solutions to decarbonizing energy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities for Industry to Provide Flexibility While Increasing Profitability

Supply and demand flexibility will both be needed to ensure the electricity system functions properly as the share from variable renewable generation continues to grow. Industrial manufacturing currently consumes about a third of primary energy worldwide, and electricity is projected to supply an increasing share of this demand as the global economy decarbonizes. Therefore, the ability for industry to flex demand poses an enticing opportunity to enable grid flexibility. However, large capital outlays prevent industry from voluntarily altering demand. Here we show that as battery costs continue to fall, industry will soon be able to profitably alter demand in accordance with electricity price variations. Focusing on two established industries– chlor-alkali and electric arc furnaces – and two industries with large future potential – methane pyrolysis and atmospheric CO 2 capture, we use a linear program (LP) optimization to assess the technoeconomic feasibility of flexible industrial demand across both historical and future-looking wholesale day-ahead marginal prices for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). We find positive net present values (NPV) from $\$$400K to $\$$50M using projected 2050 battery prices for industrial purchase of behind-the-meter batteries, using only arbitrage as a source of value. These results indicate that, with projected battery prices, profit-seeking industrial players could voluntarily play a future role in stabilizing a high-renewables grid where electricity prices act as accurate signals of grid needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Request for Information on Establishing a New Manufacturing Institute (DE-FOA-0002564)

Deep decarbonization of major industries such as metals manufacturing requires extensive process integration and controls to manage feedstocks, side reactions, heat, water, and waste streams. The scale of the energy and capital investment requires that process integration be validated to a high level of confidence with no bias. Industries such as steel production have very thin profit margins. Therefore, lack of confidence in process integration, product quality, and economics is a major deterrence to changes in manufacturing capital investment. Public sector investment in reconfigurable pilot testbeds and a first-of-a-kind plant would be necessary to de-risk technical and financial barriers prior to industry-wide buildout. DOE should consider a National Lab-led hub for the testbeds. Lab testbeds could be utilized in campaigns and allow multiple industrial partners to evaluate and validate technologies prior to making major capital investments.

08 HYDROGEN↗