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DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ray Tracing Techniques for the Characterization of Lunar Communication Architectures

This paper provides an overview of the computational techniques used to characterize the viability of different lunar architectures and their ability to provide communication services to the lunar surface. This analysis was done with modern ray tracing techniques that allow for the computations to be done on Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) clusters for a high level of parallelism and severe reduction in computation time. The ray tracing computations were done with the GPU platform Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) provided by NVIDIA which utilizes general-purpose computing on graphics processing units (GPGPU). This new method provides the advantage of being able to characterize a much larger portion of the lunar surface due to its computational efficiency as well as providing a more accurate representation of elevation angle limits instead of the typical and often inaccurate elevation angle mask. The Lunar surface can now be characterized with metrics such as contact time, outage time, and received data rate. With these metrics, different proposed Lunar architectures can be rapidly evaluated. This reduction in computation time not only leads to more accurate results but allows these results to be obtained in a time frame that allows for the complete characterization of the trade space. It is expected that these different architecture comparisons will lead to a conclusive determination of the optimal Lunar architecture and will allow for future Lunar missions to operate as close to real time as possible. In addition, this computation method can be used to recreate visibility figures generated by previous methods but with an increased level of accuracy.

Thomas Montano↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Prognostic Models Using Plant Asset Data

The recent growth of machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies provides opportunities for leveraging data-driven algorithms to address the problems of diagnostics and prognostics in the nuclear power industry. The use of machine learning and other statistical methods as prognostic models is of particular interest in the nuclear industry to accurately predict future equipment or plant state given a set of measurements. Such predictive capability will enable predictive assessment of component condition and remaining life and allow for condition-based predictive maintenance. The resulting optimization of maintenance scheduling and reduction in unnecessary maintenance activities will lower overall maintenance costs and improve the economics of nuclear power. This report discusses the various aspects of data processing and model development that are likely to influence the performance of prognostic models. Data from a boiling-water reactor was used to evaluate several prognostic models to identify key considerations for developing such models to predict data-driven plant state and equipment degradation condition. Preliminary results indicate the need for data sets that are relevant to the problem at hand and contain signatures that may be correlated to the prediction problem. Assuming such data exist, development of prognostic models using data-driven methods requires an understanding of the various sources of influence on the prediction accuracy (such as the model architecture, data preprocessing approaches, and potentially external factors influencing the equipment or plant system under assessment). Ongoing research is evaluating these factors in greater detail and examining techniques for calculating prediction uncertainty bounds.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning of electrochemical CO 2 conversion literature reveals research trends and directions

Large-scale and openly available material science databases are mainly composed of computer simulation results rather than experimental data. Some examples include the Materials Project, Open Quantum Materials Database, and Open Catalyst 2022. Unfortunately, building large-scale experimental databases remains challenging due to the difficulties in consolidating locally distributed datasets. In this work, focusing on the catalysis literature of CO 2 reduction reactions (CO 2 RRs), we present a machine learning (ML)-based protocol for selecting highly relevant papers and extracting important experimental data. First, we report a document embedding method (Doc2Vec) for collecting papers of greatest relevance to the specific target domain, which yielded 3154 CO 2 RR-related papers from six publishers. Next, we developed named entity recognition (NER) models to extract twelve entities related to material names (catalyst, electrolyte, etc.) and catalytic performance (Faradaic efficiency, current density, etc.). Further, among several tested models, the MatBERT-based approach achieved the highest accuracy, with an average F1-score of 90.4% and an F1-score of 95.2% in a boundary relaxation evaluation scheme. The accurate and accelerated NER-based data extraction from a large volume of catalysis literature enables temporal trend analyses of the CO 2 RR catalysts, products, and performances, revealing the potentially effective material space in CO 2 RRs. While this work demonstrates the effectiveness of our ML-based text mining methods for specifically CO 2 RR literature, the methods and approach are applicable to and may be used to accelerate the development of other catalytic chemical reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Clustering Analysis of Commercial Vehicles Using Automatically Extracted Features from Time Series Data

Standard of practice approaches to time series cluster analysis involve careful feature engineering, often utilizing expert input to tune and select features by hand. In many cases, expert input may not be readily available, or there may not yet exist a community consensus on the ideal features for a given application. This paper compares the results of several cluster analysis methods, using both hand selected features and those extracted automatically, when applied to large geospatial time series telematics data from commercial trucking fleets. The impacts of feature selection, dimensionality reduction, and choice of clustering algorithm on the quality of clustering results are explored. Results from this analysis confirm prior results that domain agnostic features are competitive with the hand engineered features with respect to clustering quality metrics. These results also provide new insight into the most successful strategies for identifying structure in large unstructured vehicle telematics data, and suggest that time series clustering using automatic feature extraction can be an effective approach to extract structure from large scale geospatial time series data in cases when hand selected features are not available.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Aeroacoustic Assessment of Wind Plant Controls

The Aeroacoustic Assessment project aims to quantify changes in aeroacoustic noise generation by a utility scale wind turbine operating under imposed yaw offsets common for wake steering and wind plant control strategies. Active plant control utilizing wake deflection control strategies have been shown experimentally and computationally to reliably produce 1-2% of additional annual energy production (AEP) without significant changes in turbine structural loads, the potential impact on aeroacoustic emissions has yet to be quantified or completely understood. Yawed operation of a wind turbine changes the three-dimensional aerodynamic interaction between the rotor blades and the incoming atmospheric flow, leading to changes in noise generation. This work quantifies the extent to which active control induces additional aeroacoustic emissions from additional separation and other flow interaction dynamic effects. Given public concerns about wind turbine noise and the need for observational data required for regulators to establish noise restrictions, we must understand potential acoustic emissions resulting from active control prior to commercial deployment and the development of practical noise reduction methods and technologies. The work outlined in this report details the new aeroacoustic measurement capability developed at NREL and its application to making full-field observations of noise from a utility-scale wind turbine. Preliminary noise modeling with the aeroacoustics module in OpenFAST helped to establish the design of the experiment, specifically targeting the noise observed at observers distributed around the DOE-owned GE 1.5 MW wind turbine. Low-frequency and infrasound measurement capability implemented in this project establish an operational baseline for the wind turbine, setting the stage for future control, rotor blade, and turbine design research.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1972

The observational environment of astronomical satellites and related software subroutines

Methods are described for calculating significant factors in the observational environment of orbiting astronomical satellites. These factors must be considered in the process of scheduling observations and in data reduction. Subroutines which perform these calculations are described.

West, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Trace element analysis of coal by neutron activation

The irradiation, counting, and data reduction scheme is described for an analysis capability of 1000 samples per year. Up to 56 elements are reported on each sample. The precision and accuracy of the method are shown for 25 elements designated as hazardous by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The interference corrections for selenium and ytterbium on mercury and ytterbium on selenium are described. The effect of bromine and antimony on the determination of arsenic is also mentioned. The use of factorial design techniques to evaluate interferences in the determination of mercury, selenium, and arsenic is shown. Some typical trace element results for coal, fly ash, and bottom ash are given.

Sheibley, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Trace element analysis of coal by neutron activation.

Sheibley, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The role of topography in geodetic gravity field modelling

Masses associated with the topography, bathymetry, and its isostatic compensation are a dominant source of gravity field variations, especially at shorter wavelengths. On global scales the topographic/isostatic effects are also significant, except for the lowest harmonics. In practice, though, global effects need not be taken into account as such effects are included in the coefficients of the geopotential reference fields. On local scales, the short-wavelength gravity variations due to the topography may, in rugged terrain, be an order of magnitude larger than other effects. In such cases, explicit or implicit terrain reduction procedures are mandatory in order to obtain good prediction results. Such effects may be computed by space-domain integration or by fast Fourier transformation (FFT) methods. Numerical examples are given for areas of the Canadian Rockies. In principle, good knowledge of the topographic densities is required to produce the smoothest residual field. Densities may be determined from sample measurements or by gravimetric means, but both are somewhat troublesome methods in practice. The use of a standard density, e.g., 2.67 g/cu cm, may often yield satisfactory results and may be put within a consistent theoretical framework. The independence of density assumptions is the key point of the classical Molodensky approach to the geodetic boundary value problem. The Molodensky solutions take into account that land gravity field observations are done on a non-level surface. Molodensky's problem may be solved by integral expansions or more effective FFT methods, but the solution should not be intermixed with the use of terrain reductions. The methods are actually complimentary and may both be required in order to obtain the smoothest possible signal, least prone to aliasing and other effects coming from sparse data coverage, typical of rugged topography.

Forsberg, R.↗

NASA NTRS1959

Effects of Mach Number and Wall-Temperature Ratio on Turbulent Heat Transfer at Mach Numbers from 3 to 5

Heat-transfer data were evaluated from temperature time histories measured on a cooled cylindrical model with a cone-shaped nose and with turbulent flow at Mach numbers 3.00, 3.44, 4.08, 4.56, and 5.04. The experimental data were compared with calculated values using a modified Reynold's analogy between skin-friction and heat-transfer. Theoretical skin- friction coefficients were calculated using the method of Van Driest the method of Sommer and Short. The heat-transfer data obtained from the model were found to correlate when the 'T' method of Sommer and Short was used. The increase in turbulent heat-transfer rate with a reduction in wall to freestream temperature ratio was of the same order of magnitude as has been found for the turbulent skin-friction coefficient.

Tendeland, Thorval↗

NASA NTRS2011

Binary-Signal Recovery

Binary communication through long cables, opto-isolators, isolating transformers, or repeaters can become distorted in characteristic ways. The usual solution is to slow the communication rate, change to a different method, or improve the communication media. It would help if the characteristic distortions could be accommodated at the receiving end to ease the communication problem. The distortions come from loss of the high-frequency content, which adds slopes to the transitions from ones to zeroes and zeroes to ones. This weakens the definition of the ones and zeroes in the time domain. The other major distortion is the reduction of low frequency, which causes the voltage that defines the ones or zeroes to drift out of recognizable range. This development describes a method for recovering a binary data stream from a signal that has been subjected to a loss of both higher-frequency content and low-frequency content that is essential to define the difference between ones and zeroes. The method makes use of the frequency structure of the waveform created by the data stream, and then enhances the characteristics related to the data to reconstruct the binary switching pattern. A major issue is simplicity. The approach taken here is to take the first derivative of the signal and then feed it to a hysteresis switch. This is equivalent in practice to using a non-resonant band pass filter feeding a Schmitt trigger. Obviously, the derivative signal needs to be offset to halfway between the thresholds of the hysteresis switch, and amplified so that the derivatives reliably exceed the thresholds. A transition from a zero to a one is the most substantial, fastest plus movement of voltage, and therefore will create the largest plus first derivative pulse. Since the quiet state of the derivative is sitting between the hysteresis thresholds, the plus pulse exceeds the plus threshold, switching the hysteresis switch plus, which re-establishes the data zero to one transition, except now at the logic levels of the receiving circuit. Similarly, a transition from a one to a zero will be the most substantial and fastest minus movement of voltage and therefore will create the largest minus first derivative pulse. The minus pulse exceeds the minus threshold, switching the hysteresis switch minus, which re-establishes the data one to zero transition. This innovation has a large increase in tolerance for the degradation of the binary pattern of ones and zeroes, and can reject the introduction of noise in the form of low frequencies that can cause the voltage pattern to drift up or down, and also higher frequencies that are beyond the recognizable content in the binary transitions.

Griebeler, Elmer L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Cruise noise of the 2/9th scale model of the Large-scale Advanced Propfan (LAP) propeller, SR-7A

Noise data on the Large-scale Advanced Propfan (LAP) propeller model SR-7A were taken in the NASA Lewis Research Center 8 x 6 foot Wind Tunnel. The maximum blade passing tone noise first rises with increasing helical tip Mach number to a peak level, then remains the same or decreases from its peak level when going to higher helical tip Mach numbers. This trend was observed for operation at both constant advance ratio and approximately equal thrust. This noise reduction or, leveling out at high helical tip Mach numbers, points to the use of higher propeller tip speeds as a possible method to limit airplane cabin noise while maintaining high flight speed and efficiency. Projections of the tunnel model data are made to the full scale LAP propeller mounted on the test bed aircraft and compared with predictions. The prediction method is found to be somewhat conservative in that it slightly overpredicts the projected model data at the peak.

Dittmar, James H.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Cruise noise of the 2/9 scale model of the Large-scale Advanced Propfan (LAP) propeller, SR-7A

Dittmar, James H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural-network learning of SPOD latent dynamics

Here, we aim to reconstruct the latent space dynamics of high dimensional, quasi-stationary systems using model order reduction via the spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD). The proposed method is based on three fundamental steps: in the first, once that the mean flow field has been subtracted from the realizations (also referred to as snapshots), we compress the data from a high-dimensional representation to a lower dimensional one by constructing the SPOD latent space; in the second, we build the time-dependent coefficients by projecting the snapshots containing the fluctuations onto the SPOD basis and we learn their evolution in time with the aid of recurrent neural networks; in the third, we reconstruct the high-dimensional data from the learnt lower -dimensional representation. The proposed method is demonstrated on two different test cases, namely, a compressible jet flow, and a geophysical problem known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. An extensive comparison between SPOD and the equivalent POD-based counterpart is provided and differences between the two approaches are highlighted. The numerical results suggest that the proposed model is able to provide low rank predictions of complex statistically stationary data and to provide insights into the evolution of phenomena characterized by specific range of frequencies. The comparison between POD and SPOD surrogate strategies highlights the need for further work on the characterization of the interplay of error between data reduction techniques and neural network forecasts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dimension Reduction and Redundancy Removal through Successive Schmidt Decompositions

Quantum computers are believed to have the ability to process huge data sizes, which can be seen in machine learning applications. In these applications, the data, in general, are classical. Therefore, to process them on a quantum computer, there is a need for efficient methods that can be used to map classical data on quantum states in a concise manner. On the other hand, to verify the results of quantum computers and study quantum algorithms, we need to be able to approximate quantum operations into forms that are easier to simulate on classical computers with some errors. Motivated by these needs, in this paper, we study the approximation of matrices and vectors by using their tensor products obtained through successive Schmidt decompositions. We show that data with distributions such as uniform, Poisson, exponential, or similar to these distributions can be approximated by using only a few terms, which can be easily mapped onto quantum circuits. The examples include random data with different distributions, the Gram matrices of iris flower, handwritten digits, 20newsgroup, and labeled faces in the wild. Similarly, some quantum operations, such as quantum Fourier transform and variational quantum circuits with a small depth, may also be approximated with a few terms that are easier to simulate on classical computers. Furthermore, we show how the method can be used to simplify quantum Hamiltonians: In particular, we show the application to randomly generated transverse field Ising model Hamiltonians. The reduced Hamiltonians can be mapped into quantum circuits easily and, therefore, can be simulated more efficiently.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Feasibility of DEIM for retrieving the initial field via dimensionality reduction

When parameter estimation is solved in a high-dimensional space, the dimensionality reduction strategy becomes the primary consideration for alleviating the tremendous computational cost. Here, the discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) is explored to retrieve the initial condition (IC) by combining the polynomial chaos (PC) based ensemble Kalman filter (i.e. PC-EnKF), where a non-intrusive PC expansion is considered as a surrogate model in place of the forward model in the prediction step of the ensemble Kalman filter, resulting in fewer forward model integrations but with a comparable accuracy as Monte Carlo-based approaches. The DEIM acts as a hyper-reduction tool to provide the low-dimensional input for the high-dimensional initial field, which can be reconstructed using the information on the sparse interpolation grid points that is adaptively obtained through PC-EnKF data assimilation method. Thus an innovative framework to reconstruct the IC is developed. The detailed procedure at each assimilation iteration includes: the determination of the spatial interpolation points, the estimation of the initial values on the interpolation locations using the optimal observations, and the reconstruction of IC in the full space. The current study uses the reconstruction field of initial conditions of the Navier-Stokes equations as an example to illustrate the efficacy of our method. The experimental results demonstrate the proposed algorithm achieves a satisfactory reconstruction for the initial field. The proposed method helps to extend the applicable area of DEIM in solving inverse problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗