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Human Factors and Habitability Challenges for Mars Missions

As NASA is planning to send humans deeper into space than ever before, adequate crew health and performance will be critical for mission success. Within the NASA Human Research Program (HRP), the Space Human Factors and Habitability (SHFH) team is responsible for characterizing the risks associated with human capabilities and limitations with respect to long-duration spaceflight, and for providing mitigations (e.g., guidelines, technologies, and tools) to promote safe, reliable and productive missions. SHFH research includes three domains: Advanced Environmental Health (AEH), Advanced Food Technology (AFT), and Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE). The AEH portfolio focuses on understanding the risk of microbial contamination of the spacecraft and on the development of standards for exposure to potential toxins such as chemicals, bacteria, fungus, and lunar/Martian dust. The two risks that the environmental health project focuses on are adverse health effects due to changes in host-microbe interactions, and risks associated with exposure to dust in planetary surface habitats. This portfolio also proposes countermeasures to these risks by making recommendations that relate to requirements for environmental quality, foods, and crew health on spacecraft and space missions. The AFT portfolio focuses on reducing the mass, volume, and waste of the entire integrated food system to be used in exploration missions, and investigating processing methods to extend the shelf life of food items up to five years, while assuring that exploration crews will have nutritious and palatable foods. The portfolio also delivers improvements in both the food itself and the technologies for storing and preparing it. SHFE sponsors research to establish human factors and habitability standards and guidelines in five risk areas, and provides improved design concepts for advanced crew interfaces and habitability systems. These risk areas include: Incompatible vehicle/habitat design, inadequate human-computer interaction, inadequate critical task design, inadequate human-automation/robotic interaction, and performance errors due to training deficiencies. To address the identified research gaps within each risk, SHFH's research plan includes studies in the laboratory, in analogs, and on International Space Station (ISS). In addition to establishing and maintaining the risk-based research portfolio, SHFH is also implementing a qualitative approach to determine how we at NASA evaluate human performance. Via interviews with experts, such as trainers, flight controllers, and flight surgeons, we are collecting the metrics by which they assess human performance, evidence of performance issues, and potential or actual consequences. The Human Performance Data Project will determine what human performance data have been collected in the past at NASA, and what data should be collected in the future in order to complete our knowledgebase and reduce risks related to human factors and habitability.

Whitmore, Mihriban↗

Patient-specific quantification of image quality: An automated method for measuring spatial resolution in clinical CT images

Purpose: To develop and validate an automated technique for evaluating the spatial resolution characteristics of clinical computed tomography (CT) images. Methods: Twenty one chest and abdominopelvic clinical CT datasets were examined in this study. An algorithm was developed to extract a CT resolution index (RI) analogous to the modulation transfer function from clinical CT images by measuring the edge-spread function (ESF) across the patient’s skin. A polygon mesh of the air-skin boundary was created. The faces of the mesh were then used to measure the ESF across the air-skin interface. The ESF was differentiated to obtain the line-spread function (LSF), and the LSF was Fourier transformed to obtain the RI. The algorithm’s ability to detect the radial dependence of the RI was investigated. RIs measured with the proposed method were compared with a conventional phantom-based method across two reconstruction algorithms (FBP and iterative) using the spatial frequency at 50% RI, f{sub 50}, as the metric for comparison. Three reconstruction kernels were investigated for each reconstruction algorithm. Finally, an observer study was conducted to determine if observers could visually perceive the differences in the measured blurriness of images reconstructed with a given reconstruction method. Results: RI measurements performed with the proposed technique exhibited the expected dependencies on the image reconstruction. The measured f{sub 50} values increased with harder kernels for both FBP and iterative reconstruction. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm was able to detect the radial dependence of the RI. Patient-specific measurements of the RI were comparable to the phantom-based technique, but the patient data exhibited a large spread in the measured f{sub 50}, indicating that some datasets were blurrier than others even when the projection data were reconstructed with the same reconstruction algorithm and kernel. Results from the observer study substantiated this finding. Conclusions: Clinically informed, patient-specific spatial resolution can be measured from clinical datasets. The method is sufficiently sensitive to reflect changes in spatial resolution due to different reconstruction parameters. The method can be applied to automatically assess the spatial resolution of patient images and quantify dependencies that may not be captured in phantom data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Performance of Island Kitchen Range Hoods

A key aspect of achieving acceptable indoor air quality is source control. Cooking has been recognized as a significant source of pollutants for health impacts (e.g., PM2.5 and NO2) as well as moisture and odour. A common method of controlling this pollutant source is by using a range (or cooker) hood that vents to outside. However, field and laboratory experiments have shown highly variable performance for these devices. We use the capture efficiency metric (the fraction of the pollutants that are exhausted to outside at steady state) to characterize the range hood performance. To address this issue and provide useful information for builders, contractors, designers and home occupants, a laboratory rating method for range hood capture efficiency has recently been developed by LBNL and ASTM. The test method uses standardized emitters to create a heated plume and seed it with tracer gas. The tracer gas measurements in the room, the range hood exhaust and in the ambient air are used to estimate capture efficiency. However, this test method only applies to wall-mounted range hoods. Some range hoods are not wall-mounted: island range hoods are designed to operate over a cooktop in the middle of a room rather than against a wall and downdraft hoods draw air from near the cooktop rather than overhead. This paper discusses the development of a new test apparatus for island and downdraft hoods and presents measured capture efficiency data from example hoods. The results of this work will be used in future revisions to the ASTM standard.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Assessment of Radiative Heating Uncertainty for Hyperbolic Earth Entry

This paper investigates the shock-layer radiative heating uncertainty for hyperbolic Earth entry, with the main focus being a Mars return. In Part I of this work, a baseline simulation approach involving the LAURA Navier-Stokes code with coupled ablation and radiation is presented, with the HARA radiation code being used for the radiation predictions. Flight cases representative of peak-heating Mars or asteroid return are de ned and the strong influence of coupled ablation and radiation on their aerothermodynamic environments are shown. Structural uncertainties inherent in the baseline simulations are identified, with turbulence modeling, precursor absorption, grid convergence, and radiation transport uncertainties combining for a +34% and ..24% structural uncertainty on the radiative heating. A parametric uncertainty analysis, which assumes interval uncertainties, is presented. This analysis accounts for uncertainties in the radiation models as well as heat of formation uncertainties in the flow field model. Discussions and references are provided to support the uncertainty range chosen for each parameter. A parametric uncertainty of +47.3% and -28.3% is computed for the stagnation-point radiative heating for the 15 km/s Mars-return case. A breakdown of the largest individual uncertainty contributors is presented, which includes C3 Swings cross-section, photoionization edge shift, and Opacity Project atomic lines. Combining the structural and parametric uncertainty components results in a total uncertainty of +81.3% and ..52.3% for the Mars-return case. In Part II, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to 1960s era shock-tube and constricted-arc experimental cases. It is shown that experiments contain shock layer temperatures and radiative ux values relevant to the Mars-return cases of present interest. Comparisons between the predictions and measurements, accounting for the uncertainty in both, are made for a range of experiments. A measure of comparison quality is de ned, which consists of the percent overlap of the predicted uncertainty bar with the corresponding measurement uncertainty bar. For nearly all cases, this percent overlap is greater than zero, and for most of the higher temperature cases (T >13,000 K) it is greater than 50%. These favorable comparisons provide evidence that the baseline computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are adequate for Mars-return simulations. In Part III, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to EAST shock-tube cases. These experimental cases contain wavelength dependent intensity measurements in a wavelength range that covers 60% of the radiative intensity for the 11 km/s, 5 m radius flight case studied in Part I. Comparisons between the predictions and EAST measurements are made for a range of experiments. The uncertainty analysis presented in Part I is applied to each prediction, and comparisons are made using the metrics defined in Part II. The agreement between predictions and measurements is excellent for velocities greater than 10.5 km/s. Both the wavelength dependent and wavelength integrated intensities agree within 30% for nearly all cases considered. This agreement provides confidence in the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I, and provides further evidence that this approach is adequate for Mars-return simulations. Part IV of this paper reviews existing experimental data that include the influence of massive ablation on radiative heating. It is concluded that this existing data is not sufficient for the present uncertainty analysis. Experiments to capture the influence of massive ablation on radiation are suggested as future work, along with further studies of the radiative precursor and improvements in the radiation properties of ablation products.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from galaxy clustering and weak lensing with HSC and SDSS using the emulator based halo model

We present cosmology results from a blinded joint analysis of cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy weak lensing, and projected galaxy clustering, measured from the Hyper Suprime-Cam three-year (HSC-Y3) shape catalog and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR11 spectroscopic galaxy catalog—a cosmology analysis. We define luminosity-cut, and therefore nearly volume-limited, samples of SDSS galaxies to serve as the tracers of w p and as the lens samples for Δ⁢Σ in three spectroscopic redshift bins spanning the range 0.15± and Δ⁢Σ measurements, we use a single sample of about seven million source galaxies over 416 deg 2 , selected from HSC-Y3 based on having photometric redshifts (photo-z) greater than 0.75. The deep, high-quality HSC-Y3 data enable significant detections of the Δ⁢Σ signals, with integrated signal-to-noise ratio S/N~24 in the range 3≤R/[ℎ –1 Mpc]≤30 over the three lens samples. ξ ± has S/N ~19 in the range 8' ≤$\theta$ ≤5⁢0' and 30' ≤$\theta$ ≤15⁢0' for ξ + and ξ – , respectively. For cosmological parameter inference, we use the dark emulator package, combined with a halo occupation distribution prescription for the relation between galaxies and halos, to model w p and Δ⁢Σ down to quasinonlinear scales, and we estimate cosmological parameters after marginalizing over nuisance parameters. In our baseline analysis we employ an uninformative flat prior of the residual photo-z error, given by Π⁡(Δz ph )=$U$⁡(–1,1), to model a residual bias in the mean redshift of HSC source galaxies. Comparing the relative lensing amplitudes for Δ⁢Σ in the three redshift bins and for ξ ± with the single HSC source galaxy sample allows us to calibrate the photo-z parameter Δ⁢z ph to the precision of σ⁡(Δ⁢z ph )≃0.09. With these methods, we obtain a robust constraint on the cosmological parameters for the flat Λ⁢CDM model: S 8 =σ 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 =$0.763^{+0.040}_{–0.036}$, or the best-constrained parameter given by $S^{'}_{8}$ = σ 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.22 =0.721±0.028, determined with about 4% fractional precision. Based on multidimensional tension metrics, HSC-Y3 data exhibits about 2.5σ tension with the cosmological constraint inferred by Planck for the Λ⁢CDM model, and hints at a nonzero residual photo-z bias implying that the true mean redshift of the HSC galaxies at z ≳0.75 is higher than that implied by the original photo-z estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improving Public Health DSSs by Including Saharan Dust Forecasts Through Incorporation of NASA's GOCART Model Results

Approximately 2-3 billion metric tons of soil dust are estimated to be transported in the Earth's atmosphere each year. Global transport of desert dust is believed to play an important role in many geochemical, climatological, and environmental processes. This dust carries minerals and nutrients, but it has also been shown to carry pollutants and viable microorganisms capable of harming human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Saharan dust, which impacts the eastern United States (especially Florida and the southeast) and U.S. Territories in the Caribbean primarily during the summer months, has been linked to increases in respiratory illnesses in this region and has been shown to carry other human, animal, and plant pathogens. For these reasons, this candidate solution recommends integrating Saharan dust distribution and concentration forecasts from the NASA GOCART global dust cycle model into a public health DSS (decision support system), such as the CDC's (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's) EPHTN (Environmental Public Health Tracking Network), for the eastern United States and Caribbean for early warning purposes regarding potential increases in respiratory illnesses or asthma attacks, potential disease outbreaks, or bioterrorism. This candidate solution pertains to the Public Health National Application but also has direct connections to Air Quality and Homeland Security. In addition, the GOCART model currently uses the NASA MODIS aerosol product as an input and uses meteorological forecasts from the NASA GEOS-DAS (Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System) GEOS-4 AGCM. In the future, VIIRS aerosol products and perhaps CALIOP aerosol products could be assimilated into the GOCART model to improve the results.

Berglund, Judith↗

A set of 4D pediatric XCAT reference phantoms for multimodality research

Purpose: The authors previously developed an adult population of 4D extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms for multimodality imaging research. In this work, the authors develop a reference set of 4D pediatric XCAT phantoms consisting of male and female anatomies at ages of newborn, 1, 5, 10, and 15 years. These models will serve as the foundation from which the authors will create a vast population of pediatric phantoms for optimizing pediatric CT imaging protocols. Methods: Each phantom was based on a unique set of CT data from a normal patient obtained from the Duke University database. The datasets were selected to best match the reference values for height and weight for the different ages and genders according to ICRP Publication 89. The major organs and structures were segmented from the CT data and used to create an initial pediatric model defined using nonuniform rational B-spline surfaces. The CT data covered the entire torso and part of the head. To complete the body, the authors manually added on the top of the head and the arms and legs using scaled versions of the XCAT adult models or additional models created from cadaver data. A multichannel large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping algorithm was then used to calculate the transform from a template XCAT phantom (male or female 50th percentile adult) to the target pediatric model. The transform was applied to the template XCAT to fill in any unsegmented structures within the target phantom and to implement the 4D cardiac and respiratory models in the new anatomy. The masses of the organs in each phantom were matched to the reference values given in ICRP Publication 89. The new reference models were checked for anatomical accuracy via visual inspection. Results: The authors created a set of ten pediatric reference phantoms that have the same level of detail and functionality as the original XCAT phantom adults. Each consists of thousands of anatomical structures and includes parameterized models for the cardiac and respiratory motions. Based on patient data, the phantoms capture the anatomic variations of childhood, such as the development of bone in the skull, pelvis, and long bones, and the growth of the vertebrae and organs. The phantoms can be combined with existing simulation packages to generate realistic pediatric imaging data from different modalities. Conclusions: The development of patient-derived pediatric computational phantoms is useful in providing variable anatomies for simulation. Future work will expand this ten-phantom base to a host of pediatric phantoms representative of the public at large. This can provide a means to evaluate and improve pediatric imaging devices and to optimize CT protocols in terms of image quality and radiation dose.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

The development of a population of 4D pediatric XCAT phantoms for imaging research and optimization

Purpose: We previously developed a set of highly detailed 4D reference pediatric extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms at ages of newborn, 1, 5, 10, and 15 yr with organ and tissue masses matched to ICRP Publication 89 values. In this work, we extended this reference set to a series of 64 pediatric phantoms of varying age and height and body mass percentiles representative of the public at large. The models will provide a library of pediatric phantoms for optimizing pediatric imaging protocols. Methods: High resolution positron emission tomography-computed tomography data obtained from the Duke University database were reviewed by a practicing experienced radiologist for anatomic regularity. The CT portion of the data was then segmented with manual and semiautomatic methods to form a target model defined using nonuniform rational B-spline surfaces. A multichannel large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping algorithm was used to calculate the transform from the best age matching pediatric XCAT reference phantom to the patient target. The transform was used to complete the target, filling in the nonsegmented structures and defining models for the cardiac and respiratory motions. The complete phantoms, consisting of thousands of structures, were then manually inspected for anatomical accuracy. The mass for each major tissue was calculated and compared to linearly interpolated ICRP values for different ages. Results: Sixty four new pediatric phantoms were created in this manner. Each model contains the same level of detail as the original XCAT reference phantoms and also includes parameterized models for the cardiac and respiratory motions. For the phantoms that were 10 yr old and younger, we included both sets of reproductive organs. This gave them the capability to simulate both male and female anatomy. With this, the population can be expanded to 92. Wide anatomical variation was clearly seen amongst the phantom models, both in organ shape and size, even for models of the same age and sex. The phantoms can be combined with existing simulation packages to generate realistic pediatric imaging data from different modalities. Conclusions: This work provides a large cohort of highly detailed pediatric phantoms with 4D capabilities of varying age, height, and body mass. The population of phantoms will provide a vital tool with which to optimize 3D and 4D pediatric imaging devices and techniques in terms of image quality and radiation-absorbed dose.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An Evidence-Based Evaluation of the Cumulative Effects of Tidal Freshwater and Estuarine Ecosystem Restoration on Endangered Juvenile Salmon in the Columbia River: Final Report

The listing of 13 salmon and steelhead stocks in the Columbia River basin (hereafter collectively referred to as “salmon”) under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended, has stimulated tidal wetland restoration in the lower 235 kilometers of the Columbia River and estuary for juvenile salmon habitat functions. The purpose of the research reported herein was to evaluate the effect on listed salmon of the restoration effort currently being conducted under the auspices of the federal Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP). Linking changes in the quality and landscape pattern of tidal wetlands in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) to salmon recovery is a complex problem because of the characteristics of the ecosystem, the salmon, the restoration actions, and available sampling technologies. Therefore, we designed an evidence-based approach to develop, synthesize, and evaluate information to determine early-stage (~10 years) outcomes of the CEERP. We developed an ecosystem conceptual model and from that, a primary hypothesis that habitat restoration activities in the LCRE have a cumulative beneficial effect on juvenile salmon. There are two necessary conditions of the hypothesis: • habitat-based indicators of ecosystem controlling factors, processes, and structures show positive effects from restoration actions, and • fish-based indicators of ecosystem processes and functions show positive effects from restoration actions and habitats undergoing restoration. Our evidence-based approach to evaluate the primary hypothesis incorporated seven lines of evidence, most of which are drawn from the LCRE. The lines of evidence are spatial and temporal synergies, cumulative net ecosystem improvement, estuary-wide meta-analysis, offsite benefits to juvenile salmon, landscape condition evaluation, and evidence-based scoring of global literature. The general methods we used to develop information for the lines of evidence included field measurements, data analyses, modeling, meta-analysis, and reanalysis of previously collected data sets. We identified a set of 12 ancillary hypotheses regarding habitat and salmon response. Each ancillary hypothesis states that the response metric will trend toward conditions at relatively undisturbed reference sites. We synthesized the evidence for and against the two necessary conditions by using eleven causal criteria: strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, analogy, complete exposure pathway, and predictive performance. Our final evaluation included cumulative effects assessment because restoration is occurring at multiple sites and the collective effect is important to salmon recovery. We concluded that all five lines of evidence from the LCRE indicated positive habitat-based and fish-based responses to the restoration performed under the CEERP, although tide gate replacements on small sloughs were an exception. Our analyses suggested that hydrologic reconnections restore access for fish to move into a site to find prey produced there. Reconnections also restore the potential for the flux of prey from the site to the main stem river, where our data show that they are consumed by salmon. We infer that LCRE ecosystem restoration supports increased juvenile salmon growth and enhanced fitness (condition), thereby potentially improving survival rates during the early ocean stage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Population of anatomically variable 4D XCAT adult phantoms for imaging research and optimization

Purpose: The authors previously developed the 4D extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantom for multimodality imaging research. The XCAT consisted of highly detailed whole-body models for the standard male and female adult, including the cardiac and respiratory motions. In this work, the authors extend the XCAT beyond these reference anatomies by developing a series of anatomically variable 4D XCAT adult phantoms for imaging research, the first library of 4D computational phantoms. Methods: The initial anatomy of each phantom was based on chest-abdomen-pelvis computed tomography data from normal patients obtained from the Duke University database. The major organs and structures for each phantom were segmented from the corresponding data and defined using nonuniform rational B-spline surfaces. To complete the body, the authors manually added on the head, arms, and legs using the original XCAT adult male and female anatomies. The structures were scaled to best match the age and anatomy of the patient. A multichannel large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping algorithm was then used to calculate the transform from the template XCAT phantom (male or female) to the target patient model. The transform was applied to the template XCAT to fill in any unsegmented structures within the target phantom and to implement the 4D cardiac and respiratory models in the new anatomy. Each new phantom was refined by checking for anatomical accuracy via inspection of the models. Results: Using these methods, the authors created a series of computerized phantoms with thousands of anatomical structures and modeling cardiac and respiratory motions. The database consists of 58 (35 male and 23 female) anatomically variable phantoms in total. Like the original XCAT, these phantoms can be combined with existing simulation packages to simulate realistic imaging data. Each new phantom contains parameterized models for the anatomy and the cardiac and respiratory motions and can, therefore, serve as a jumping point from which to create an unlimited number of 3D and 4D variations for imaging research. Conclusions: A population of phantoms that includes a range of anatomical variations representative of the public at large is needed to more closely mimic a clinical study or trial. The series of anatomically variable phantoms developed in this work provide a valuable resource for investigating 3D and 4D imaging devices and the effects of anatomy and motion in imaging. Combined with Monte Carlo simulation programs, the phantoms also provide a valuable tool to investigate patient-specific dose and image quality, and optimization for adults undergoing imaging procedures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Wet and dry plastic deposition data for western US National Atmospheric Deposition Program sites (2017-2019)

Raw plastic counts and calculated plastic deposition rates for 11 National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) sites in the western USA recorded from 2017-2019. Samples were collected to determine plastic deposition rates in remote locations and identify the potential sources of plastic to the atmosphere. Samples were collected using an Aerochem Metrics Wet and Dry sampler. Wet deposition refers to the material retained on a 0.45-micron filter. Dry deposition refers to the dry only deposition collected using a Dry Side Insert (DSI) (Brahney et al. 2020). Plastics are identified as either fibers or particles (includes small colored films). Wet deposition rates are recorded weekly and dry plastic deposition rates are based on monthly sampling intervals. Sites included are Grand Canyon National Park (AZ03), Joshua Tree National Park (CA67), Rocky Mountain National Park (CO98), Niwot Ridge (CO02), Ashley National Forest (UT95), East River SFA (CO10)), Craters of the Moon National Park (ID03), Great Basin National Park (NV05), Canyonlands National Park (UT09), Bryce Canyon Nationa Park (UT99), and Wind River Range (WY06). Data collection is being published in collaboration with the Department of Energy's research project, "Constraining physical understanding of aerosol loading, biogeochemistry, and snowmelt hydrology from hillslope to watershed scale in the East River Scientific Focus Areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SU-F-R-50: Radiation-Induced Changes in CT Number Histogram During Chemoradiation Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer

Purpose: In an effort of early assessment of treatment response, we investigate radiation induced changes in CT number histogram of GTV during the delivery of chemoradiation therapy (CRT) for pancreatic cancer. Methods: Diagnostic-quality CT data acquired daily during routine CT-guided CRT using a CT-on-rails for 20 pancreatic head cancer patients were analyzed. All patients were treated with a radiation dose of 50.4 in 28 fractions. On each daily CT set, the contours of the pancreatic head and the spinal cord were delineated. The Hounsfiled Units (HU) histogram in these contourswere extracted and processed using MATLAB. Eight parameters of the histogram including the mean HU over all the voxels, peak position, volume, standard deviation (SD), skewness, kurtosis, energy, and entropy were calculated for each fraction. The significances were inspected using paired two-tailed t-test and the correlations were analyzed using Spearman rank correlation tests. Results: In general, HU histogram in pancreatic head (but not in spinal cord) changed during the CRT delivery. Changes from the first to the last fraction in mean HU in pancreatic head ranged from −13.4 to 3.7 HU with an average of −4.4 HU, which was significant (P<0.001). Among other quantities, the volume decreased, the skewness increased (less skewed), and the kurtosis decreased (less sharp) during the CRT delivery. The changes of mean HU, volume, skewness, and kurtosis became significant after two weeks of treatment. Patient pathological response status is associated with the changes of SD (ΔSD), i.e., ΔSD= 1.85 (average of 7 patients) for good reponse, −0.08 (average of 6 patients) for moderate and poor response. Conclusion: Significant changes in HU histogram and the histogram-based metrics (e.g., meam HU, skewness, and kurtosis) in tumor were observed during the course of chemoradiation therapy for pancreas cancer. These changes may be potentially used for early assessment of treatment response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Autonomous Multi-sensor Coordination: The Science Goal Monitor

Next-generation science and exploration systems will employ new observation strategies that will use multiple sensors in a dynamic environment to provide high quality monitoring, self-consistent analyses and informed decision making. The Science Goal Monitor (SGM) is a prototype software tool being developed to explore the nature of automation necessary to enable dynamic observing of earth phenomenon. The tools being developed in SGM improve our ability to autonomously monitor multiple independent sensors and coordinate reactions to better observe the dynamic phenomena. The SGM system enables users to specify events of interest and how to react when an event is detected. The system monitors streams of data to identify occurrences of the key events previously specified by the scientist/user. When an event occurs, the system autonomously coordinates the execution of the users desired reactions between different sensors. The information can be used to rapidly respond to a variety of fast temporal events. Investigators will no longer have to rely on after-the-fact data analysis to determine what happened. Our paper describes a series of prototype demonstrations that we have developed using SGM and NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite and Earth Observing Systems Aqua/Terra spacecrafts MODIS instrument. Our demonstrations show the promise of coordinating data from different sources, analyzing the data for a relevant event, autonomously updating and rapidly obtaining a follow-on relevant image. SGM is being used to investigate forest fires, floods and volcanic eruptions. We are now identifying new earth science scenarios that will have more complex SGM reasoning. By developing and testing a prototype in an operational environment, we are also establishing and gathering metrics to gauge the success of automating science campaigns.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗

Adaptation of the modified Bouc–Wen model to compensate for hysteresis in respiratory motion for the list-mode binning of cardiac SPECT and PET acquisitions: Testing using MRI

Purpose: Binning list-mode acquisitions as a function of a surrogate signal related to respiration has been employed to reduce the impact of respiratory motion on image quality in cardiac emission tomography (SPECT and PET). Inherent in amplitude binning is the assumption that there is a monotonic relationship between the amplitude of the surrogate signal and respiratory motion of the heart. This assumption is not valid in the presence of hysteresis when heart motion exhibits a different relationship with the surrogate during inspiration and expiration. The purpose of this study was to investigate the novel approach of using the Bouc–Wen (BW) model to provide a signal accounting for hysteresis when binning list-mode data with the goal of thereby improving motion correction. The study is based on the authors’ previous observations that hysteresis between chest and abdomen markers was indicative of hysteresis between abdomen markers and the internal motion of the heart. Methods: In 19 healthy volunteers, they determined the internal motion of the heart and diaphragm in the superior–inferior direction during free breathing using MRI navigators. A visual tracking system (VTS) synchronized with MRI acquisition tracked the anterior–posterior motions of external markers placed on the chest and abdomen. These data were employed to develop and test the Bouc–Wen model by inputting the VTS derived chest and abdomen motions into it and using the resulting output signals as surrogates for cardiac motion. The data of the volunteers were divided into training and testing sets. The training set was used to obtain initial values for the model parameters for all of the volunteers in the set, and for set members based on whether they were or were not classified as exhibiting hysteresis using a metric derived from the markers. These initial parameters were then employed with the testing set to estimate output signals. Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient between the abdomen, chest, average of chest and abdomen markers, and Bouc–Wen derived signals versus the true internal motion of the heart from MRI was used to judge the signals match to the heart motion. Results: The results show that the Bouc–Wen model generated signals demonstrated strong correlation with the heart motion. This correlation was slightly larger on average than that of the external surrogate signals derived from the abdomen marker, and average of the abdomen and chest markers, but was not statistically significantly different from them. Conclusions: The results suggest that the proposed model has the potential to be a unified framework for modeling hysteresis in respiratory motion in cardiac perfusion studies and beyond.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Benchmarking (Rev. 3)

A benchmarking analysis of RTES research funded by GTO through the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted against the ESGC to see where they fit within the identified ESGC Use Cases. The projects were found to advance knowledge in multiple ESGC use cases, either directly or in some cases, indirectly as enabling technologies. This analysis is helpful to understand where RTES and associated research fits into the larger discussion around energy storage technologies. Also, a retrospective analysis of the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted to evaluate what the projects learned and how the results can be applied to advance the value of RTES. Major results of each of the studies are summarized in Table 2. Additionally, a comparative metrics analysis for RTES was completed to understand where RTES lies within the energy storage industry. Metrics for evaluation of RTES and its comparison to other storage technologies were selected and ranges of their values compiled. The selected metrics – LCOE (levelized cost of energy), capital costs, roundtrip efficiency, energy storage capacity, and storage time – were chosen based on data availability and have a particularly strong influence on the potential deployment of a storage technology. Charts which compare the metrics are presented in section 4.3 and show ranges for each of the 10 selected technologies. However, due to a lack of domestic operational facilities, values for RTES and for portions of the remaining technologies are based on theoretical modeling and studies of best-case scenarios. LCOE estimates for RTES fall within the lower reaches of Figure 15, but nevertheless amount to 2 – 5 times the ESGC Roadmap goal for LCOE, for example in the Facilitating and Evolving Grid Use Case. Capital costs for RTES sit on the higher end (Figure 16) but are expected to decrease as new projects are developed and the technology is refined. The theoretical roundtrip efficiency reported for RTES varies from mid to high percentages (Figure 17) with efficiencies upwards of 93% in modeled scenarios in the Portland Basin (Bershaw et al.,2020). RTES is also expected to have the largest energy storage capacities and longest storage times, likely matched only by lower efficiency hydrogen storage. To better assess the role that RTES could play in energy storage we examined it’s potential in the U.S. The potential depends on many factors. Recently, many researchers have started looking at deep sedimentary basins, depleted oil and gas fields, and basalt formations as potential targets for RTES development. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has analyzed various cities and shown substantial RTES potential in the cooling sector (Pepin et al., 2021). By modeling RTES in low-quality groundwater (e.g., brackish), it is shown to be favorable across the U.S. with particular suitability in the Illinois Basin, Coastal Plains, and Basin and Range regions. Seasonal RTES operations have also been modeled in the Portland Basin by those at the USGS and Portland State University to simulate an RTES system supplying heating loads needed for the Oregon Health and Science University. Simulations suggest that high conductive heat loss in the initial years exists but tends to decrease with increasing time and development of the resource due to self-insulating nature of the basalts (Burns et al., 2020). Other national laboratory efforts are taking a close look at many of the technical issues involved with RTES (McLing et al., 2019, McLing et al., 2022). These include difficulties in understanding geochemical, hydrogeological, mechanical, and microbiological changes at such elevated temperatures and operational scenarios. Major gaps in research are identified and suggested for future work. With this increased focus to understand how to make RTES successful in the U.S., this technology could be a potential solution to many of the nation’s energy storage problems. For the energy independence of this country, the DOE should prioritize de-risking this technology by making future investments in pilot-scale demonstrations to attract potential investors.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Performance of New Near-Real-Time PERSIANN Product (PDIR-Now) for Atmospheric River Events over the Russian River Basin, California

Most heavy precipitation events and extreme flooding over the U.S. Pacific coast can be linked to prevalent atmospheric river (AR) conditions. Thus, reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for water management and early warning systems of flooding and landslides over these regions. At the same time, high-quality near-real-time measurements of AR precipitation remain challenging due to the complex topographic features of land surface and meteorological conditions of the region: specifically, orographic features occlude radar measurements while infrared-based algorithms face challenges, differentiating between both cold brightband (BB) precipitation and the warmer nonbrightband (NBB) precipitation. It should be noted that the latter precipitation is characterized by greater orographic enhancement. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed near-real-time satellite precipitation algorithm: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate-Now (PDIR-Now). This model is primarily dependent on infrared information from geostationary satellites as input; consequently, PDIR-Now has the advantage of short data latency, 15–60-min delay between observation to precipitation product delivery. The performance of PDIR-Now is analyzed with a focus on AR-related events for cases dominated by NBB and BB precipitation over the Russian River basin. In our investigations, we utilize S-band (3-GHz) precipitation profilers with Joss/Parsivel disdrometer measurements at the Middletown and Santa Rosa stations to classify BB and NBB precipitation events. In general, our analysis shows that PDIR-Now is more skillful in retrieving precipitation rates over both BB and NBB events across the topologically complex study area as compared to PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (CCS). Also, we discuss the performance of well-known operational near-real-time precipitation products from 2017 to 2019. Conventional categorical and volumetric categorical indices, as well as continuous statistical metrics, are used to show the differences between various high-resolution precipitation products such as Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗

Geophysical monitoring using active seismic techniques at the Citronelle Alabama CO 2 storage demonstration site

Between August 2012 and September 2014, about 114,000 metric tonnes of CO 2 was captured from the coal-fired Plant Barry Power Station at Bucks Alabama and injected into the Paluxy Formation above the oil pool in the southeast unit of the Citronelle Oilfield. Various monitoring methods were deployed at land surface and in project wells to measure system performance, comply with permit requirements and test new and innovative monitoring tools. The monitoring program relied heavily on active seismic methods for subsurface imaging of geologic structure and time-lapse seismic techniques to track the CO 2 migration in the injection interval. Both conventional geophone/hydrophone and fiber-optic based Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) arrays were deployed and tested, allowing a side by side comparison of the equipment and techniques. Geophysical imaging of the subsurface was successful using DAS in the offset vertical seismic profile (OVSP) survey configuration. A high resolution OVSP image of the subsurface was obtained in 2014 with DAS, which exceeded project expectations in comparison to a lower resolution image obtained in 2012 using a conventional 80-level geophone array. A time-lapse image of the redistribution of CO 2 after injection ended in September 2014 was obtained with two DAS OVSP surveys from June 2014 and December 2015, thus successfully demonstrating its proof-of-concept. Unfortunately, a pre-injection baseline survey with DAS, which was in its initial stage of technology development in 2012, did not have sufficient quality for use, making it difficult to interpret the acquired DAS time-lapse difference. Additional research in this area has since demonstrated the utility of time-lapse DAS OVSP. DAS data were also acquired during a cross-well seismic survey conducted in 2014. Unfortunately, the DAS technique was not success in the cross-well survey configuration because the system noise level was too high in the crosswell frequency output range (100–1200 Hz) of the piezoelectric source (increasing by a factor of ten compared to VSP frequency band). Additionally, the cross-well geometry causes sub-horizontal (broadside) incidence on the vertical DAS fiber cable, which is known to be problematic. Current research is focused on improving the DAS cable response to broadside acoustic energy. Time-lapse seismic surveys using commercially available conventional arrays were also acquired. In contrast to the DAS acquired data, the cross-well seismic results obtained with the conventional array was highly successful and clearly showed the CO 2 remained in zone at the end of injection. Time-lapse differencing of the OSVP surveys acquired with the conventional arrays proved to be inconclusive. Finally, changes in wellbore conditions between surveys and unavoidable changes in equipment (the array used for the baseline survey was retired) affected data quality, making it difficult to interpret the OVSP results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗