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At least 685 records · Page 38
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NASA NTRS2019

Water Vapour Adjustments and Responses Differ Between Climate Drivers

Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend on how the hydrological cycle responds to different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. Currently, neither the total anthropogenic influence on the hydrological cycle nor that from individual drivers is constrained sufficiently to make solid projections. We investigate how integrated water vapour (IWV) responds to different drivers of climate change. Results from 11 global climate models have been used, based on simulations where CO2, methane, solar irradiance, black carbon (BC), and sulfate have been perturbed separately. While the global-mean IWV is usually assumed to increase by 7% per kelvin of surface temperature change, we find that the feedback response of IWV differs somewhat between drivers. Fast responses, which include the initial radiative effect and rapid adjustments to an external forcing, amplify these differences. The resulting net changes in IWV range from 6.4±0.9%K(exp -1) for sulfate to 9.8±2%K(exp -1) for BC. We further calculate the relationship between global changes in IWV and precipitation, which can be characterized by quantifying changes in atmospheric water vapour lifetime. Global climate models simulate a substantial increase in the lifetime, from 8.2±0.5 to 9.9±0.7d between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under a high-emission scenario, and we discuss to what extent the water vapour lifetime provides additional information compared to analysis of IWV and precipitation separately. We conclude that water vapour lifetime changes are an important indicator of changes in precipitation patterns and that BC is particularly efficient in prolonging the mean time, and therefore likely the distance, between evaporation and precipitation.

Hodnebrog, Øivind↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO

We have successfully reproduced the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) forced by observed sea surface temperatures over a 25-year period. The vertical ozone response to ENSO is consistent with changes in the Walker circulation. We derive the sensitivity of simulated ozone to ENSO variations using linear regression analysis. The western Pacific and Indian Ocean region shows similar positive ozone sensitivities from the surface to the upper troposphere, in response to positive anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Index. The eastern and central Pacific region shows negative sensitivities with the largest sensitivity in the upper troposphere. This vertical response compares well with that derived from SHADOZ ozonesondes in each region. The OEI reveals a response of tropospheric ozone to circulation change that is nearly independent of changes in emissions and thus it is potentially useful in chemistry-climate model evaluation.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2021

3D Simulations of the Early Martian Hydrological Cycle Mediated by a H2-CO2 Greenhouse

For decades, the scientific community has been trying to reconcile abundant evidence for fluvialactivity on Noachian and early Hesperian Mars with the faint young Sun and reasonableconstraints on ancient atmospheric pressure and composition. Recently, the investigation of H2-CO2 collision-induced absorption has opened up a new avenue to warm Noachian Mars. We usethe ROCKE-3D global climate model to simulate plausible states of the ancient Martian climatewith this absorptive warming and reasonable constraints on surface paleopressure. We find that1.5-2 bar CO2-dominated atmospheres with ≥3% H2 can produce global mean surfacetemperatures above freezing, while also providing sufficient warming to avoid surfaceatmospheric CO2 condensation at 0°-45° obliquity. Simulations conducted with both moderntopography and a paleotopography, before Tharsis formed, highlight the importance of Tharsis asa cold trap for water on the planet. Additionally, we find that low obliquity (modern and 0°) ismore conducive to rainfall over valley network locations than high (45°) obliquity. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Much evidence tells us that ancient Mars had liquid water on its surface. But reconciling thatwith the fainter young Sun and reasonable constraints on Mars' early atmosphere is challenging.We use a 3D global climate model with an atmosphere containing some amount of hydrogen (apossible greenhouse gas) to study Mars' early hydrological cycle and compare it to the geologicalevidence of surface liquid water billions of years ago. We find that hydrogen and carbon dioxidetogether in an atmosphere twice as thick as modern Earth can warm early Mars above thefreezing point of water and that a low axial tilt produces rainfall patterns that best match thegeologic evidence

Scott D Guzewich↗
NASA NTRS2017

Time-Varying Changes in the Simulated Structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

stratospheric ozone↗
NASA NTRS1990

Dependence of marine stratocumulus reflectivities on liquid water paths

Simple parameterizations that relate cloud liquid water content to cloud reflectivity are often used in general circulation climate models to calculate the effect of clouds in the earth's energy budget. Such parameterizations have been developed by Stephens (1978) and by Slingo and Schrecker (1982) and others. Here researchers seek to verify the parametric relationship through the use of simultaneous observations of cloud liquid water content and cloud reflectivity. The column amount of cloud liquid was measured using a microwave radiometer on San Nicolas Island following techniques described by Hogg et al., (1983). Cloud reflectivity was obtained through spatial coherence analysis of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery data (Coakley and Beckner, 1988). They present the dependence of the observed reflectivity on the observed liquid water path. They also compare this empirical relationship with that proposed by Stephens (1978). Researchers found that by taking clouds to be isotropic reflectors, the observed reflectivities and observed column amounts of cloud liquid water are related in a manner that is consistent with simple parameterizations often used in general circulation climate models to determine the effect of clouds on the earth's radiation budget. Attempts to use the results of radiative transfer calculations to correct for the anisotropy of the AVHRR derived reflectivities resulted in a greater scatter of the points about the relationship expected between liquid water path and reflectivity. The anisotropy of the observed reflectivities proved to be small, much smaller than indicated by theory. To critically assess parameterizations, more simultaneous observations of cloud liquid water and cloud reflectivities and better calibration of the AVHRR sensors are needed.

Coakley, James A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The effect of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

A zonally averaged climate model is used to investigate the effects of different evaporation parameterizations on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations. The model is based on the annual mean zonally averaged hemispheric climate model of Ohring and Adler (1978), with some modifications on the heating parameterizations. The dynamic model utilizes the two-level quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equations. The heating processes are related to solar radiation, long-wave radiation, convection, evaporation, latent heat release, and ocean transport. Evaporation parameterization has been improved by using a nonlinear formulation in which the Bowen ratio is determined by the vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature near the earth's surface.

Chow, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS2020

MPAS - Ocean Simulation Quality for Variable-Resolution North American Coastal Meshes

Climate model components utilizing unstructured meshes enable variableresolution, regionally enhanced simulations within global domains. Here we investigate the relationship between mesh quality and simulation statistics using the JIGSAW unstructured meshing library and the Model for Prediction Across ScalesOcean (MPASOcean) with a focus on Gulf Stream dynamics. In the base configuration, the refined region employs 8 km cells that extend 400 km from the coast of North America. This coastal refined region is embedded within a lowresolution global domain, with cell size varying latitudinally between 30 and 60 km. The resolution transition region between the refined region and background mesh is 600 km wide. Three sensitivity tests are conducted: 1) the quality of meshes is intentionally degraded so that horizontal cells are progressively more distorted; 2) the transition region from high to low resolution is steepened; and 3) resolution of the coastal refinement region is varied from 30 km to 8 km. Overall, the ocean simulations are shown to be robust to mesh resolution and quality alterations. Meshes that are substantially degraded still produce realistic currents, with Southern Ocean transports within 0.4% and Gulf Stream transports within 12% of highquality mesh results. The narrowest transition case of 100 km did not produce any spurious effects. Refined regions with high resolution produce eddy kinetic energy and sea surface height variability that are similar to the highresolution reference simulation. These results provide heuristics for the design criteria of variableresolution climate model domains.

Hoch, Kristin E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Precipitation Means and Variations with the New Version of GPCP

Knowledge of global precipitation means, patterns and variations is essential for understanding the global water cycle. The observation-based global analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has been a key input to many such studies, including those related to means of the global (and regional) water and energy cycles. A new version (Version 3.1) of the GPCP monthly analysis is now available (1983-2019), with finer spatial resolution (0.5º latitude/longitude), updated satellite algorithms, latest gauge analysis over land from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC), and with ocean climatologies adjusted using information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and CloudSat. The presentation will give key findings from the new analysis, compare with the previous version, link to studies of the water cycle and compare to CMIP6 climate model results. The GPCP Monthly V3.1 analysis uses a Tropical Composite Climatology (TCC) using 22 years (1998-2019) of TRMM and GPM-based surface precipitation estimates from passive microwave, radar and combined passive microwave and radar observations to adjust the long-term mean values in the tropics over ocean. At higher latitudes over ocean climatological values of merged CloudSat and GPM combined passive microwave and radar surface precipitation estimates are used. The result of the new algorithms and procedures is an ocean mean value 60º N to 60º S of 3.2 mm/d, an increase of 7% from the older V2.3. Over land the gauge analysis (from GPCC in Germany), combined with satellite estimates results in a small decrease (~ 0.5%) from the previous version, giving a total global precipitation mean of 2.81 mm/d for V3.1, an increase of 4.5%. Variations from inter-annual to trend scales over most of the ocean are driven by the Colorado State University (CSU) Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm applied to SSMI/SSMIS satellite data. The new GPCP version retains a near zero trend of global precipitation, with significant positive trends in the deep tropics along the Pacific ITCZ and elsewhere, countered by middle latitude decreases, very similar to the previous version of the GPCP Monthly analysis. The pattern of trends is similar to that of AMIP climate model results, driven by observed SSTs for the period in question, but very different from results for “free-running” CMIP historical ensembles, likely due in part to the relatively short comparison period and effects of inter-decadal variations in the GPCP and AMIP results that are not in the “history” models. Interannual variations are also nearly the same in the new version, but with finer detail, although ENSO variations over the ocean have slightly larger amplitude than before, an effect likely related to the change in ocean satellite algorithm used in Version 3. For precipitation intensity (percentiles) at the monthly scale, especially in the tropics, GPCP shows a positive trend for the upper one third of the percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th) and a much weaker positive trend for the lowest percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), while negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (20th-65th). AMIP results agree with those from the GPCP in terms of the sign of the changes/trends for high and intermediate percentiles. The CMIP historical results also agree in the sign of the trends, but the trends are weaker. Comparisons with other types of CMIP historical simulations including the GHG-only, aerosol-only, and nature-only runs suggest that the observed changes/trends in precipitation amount and intensity during the GPCP period are dominated by a combination of the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic GHG-related surface warming.

Robert Adler↗
NASA NTRS2008

Photosynthetic Control of Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide during the Growing Season

Climate models incorporate photosynthesis-climate feedbacks, yet we lack robust tools for large-scale assessments of these processes. Recent work suggests that carbonyl sulfide (COS), a trace gas consumed by plants, could provide a valuable constraint on photosynthesis. Here we analyze airborne observations of COS and carbon dioxide concentrations during the growing season over North America with a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model. We successfully modeled the persistent vertical drawdown of atmospheric COS using the quantitative relation between COS and photosynthesis that has been measured in plant chamber experiments. Furthermore, this drawdown is driven by plant uptake rather than other continental and oceanic fluxes in the model. These results provide quantitative evidence that COS gradients in the continental growing season may have broad use as a measurement-based photosynthesis tracer.

Campbell, J. Elliott↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

Xue, Yan↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cloud-Scale Numerical Modeling of the Arctic Boundary Layer

The interactions between sea ice, open ocean, atmospheric radiation, and clouds over the Arctic Ocean exert a strong influence on global climate. Uncertainties in the formulation of interactive air-sea-ice processes in global climate models (GCMs) result in large differences between the Arctic, and global, climates simulated by different models. Arctic stratus clouds are not well-simulated by GCMs, yet exert a strong influence on the surface energy budget of the Arctic. Leads (channels of open water in sea ice) have significant impacts on the large-scale budgets during the Arctic winter, when they contribute about 50 percent of the surface fluxes over the Arctic Ocean, but cover only 1 to 2 percent of its area. Convective plumes generated by wide leads may penetrate the surface inversion and produce condensate that spreads up to 250 km downwind of the lead, and may significantly affect the longwave radiative fluxes at the surface and thereby the sea ice thickness. The effects of leads and boundary layer clouds must be accurately represented in climate models to allow possible feedbacks between them and the sea ice thickness. The FIRE III Arctic boundary layer clouds field program, in conjunction with the SHEBA ice camp and the ARM North Slope of Alaska and Adjacent Arctic Ocean site, will offer an unprecedented opportunity to greatly improve our ability to parameterize the important effects of leads and boundary layer clouds in GCMs.

Krueger, Steven K.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Approximate methods for finding CO2 15-micron band transmission in planetary atmospheres

Physical band models that use simplifying assumptions about the structure of the CO2 15-micron band are described and compared with the accurate line-by-line model of Fels and Schwarzkopf (1981). The methods have application to the models of the atmospheres of Venus, earth, and Mars. The narrow-band methods include a general random model and techniques employing the Malkmus (1967) line-strength distribution, and the accuracy of these models at low pressure is found to be sensitive to the line-strength distribution and the line shape. When combined with a simple Voigt parameterization, the more efficient approximate methods represented by an exponential wideband model are found to be almost as accurate as the expensive narrow-band models. Empirical logarithmic wideband models used in climate-modeling studies are found to be very efficient, but of limited range of validity.

Crisp, David↗
NASA NTRS1991

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Njoto, Sukrisno↗
NASA NTRS1993

Workshop on early Mars: How warm and how wet, part 2?

In 1992 the MSATT program conducted a workshop on modeling of the Martian climate. At that workshop it became clear that a serious problem had arisen concerning the early climate of Mars. Based on the evidence for smallscale fluvial activity, the view had been widely held that early in its history Mars had a climate that was much warmer and wetter than today's. However, most plausible recent climate models have fallen far short of the warm temperatures often inferred from the geologic evidence. Moreover, recent geophysical work has suggested that early geothermal warming may also have played a significant role in allowing fluvial activity. In order to address the issue of just how warm and how wet early Mars was, a workshop was convened in July of 1993, in Breckenridge, Colorado. The results of the workshop are reported here.

Squyres, S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Characteristics of stratosphere-troposphere exchange in a general circulation model

In this study we examine mass exchange, water vapor exchange, and the behavior of idealized tracers and parcels to diagnose Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE) in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), the Community Climate Model (CCM2). The CCM2 correctly represents the seasonality of mass exchange across 100 hPa, but values are uniformly too strong. Water vapor, however, indicates that tropical STE is not well represented in the CCM2; even though mean tropopause temperatures are colder than observed, the lower stratosphere is too moist. Most net mass flux occurs at water vapor mixing ratios of about 4-5 parts per million by volume (ppmv), about 1 ppmv too moist. Vertical resolution has little impact on the nature of tropical STE. In midlatitudes, CCM2 more successfully represents STE, which occurs in developing baroclinic waves and stationary anticyclones. Exchange from troposphere to stratosphere does occur but only influences the lowest few kilometers of the extratropical stratosphere, even for tracers with large vertical gradients.

Mote, Philip W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Composition Changes After the "Halloween" Solar Proton Event: The High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) Model Versus MIPAS Data Intercomparison Study

We have compared composition changes of NO, NO2, H2O2,O3, N2O, HNO3 , N2O5, HNO4, ClO, HOCl, and ClONO2 as observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat in the aftermath of the "Halloween" solar proton event (SPE) in October/November 2003 at 25-0.01 hPa in the Northern hemisphere (40-90 N) and simulations performed by the following atmospheric models: the Bremen 2D model (B2dM) and Bremen 3D Chemical Transport Model (B3dCTM), the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the ECHAM5/MESSY Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the modeling tool for SO1ar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and SOCOLi), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The large number of participating models allowed for an evaluation of the overall ability of atmospheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NOS, and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications on the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH4 and CO) fields. Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5% with the observations. Simulated NO(y) enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30% higher than indicated by the observations which can be partly attributed to an overestimation of simulated electron-induced ionization. The analysis of the observed and modeled NO(y) partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H2O2 enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations causes a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

Funke, B.↗