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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Species-specific acoustic responses by bats to ultrasonic stimuli used for reducing bat-wind turbine interactions

An unintended consequence of wind energy generation is bat fatalities caused by wind turbine blade strikes. One potential approach to reduce collision risk is to use ultrasound to create an uncomfortable or disorienting airspace around wind turbine blades. Ultrasonic deterrents (UDs) have produced mixed results in experimental field studies at commercial wind energy facilities, with effectiveness varying by species and location. It is possible that some species can alter their normal echolocation characteristics to counter the signal of UDs. Our broad objective was to maximize the effectiveness of a UD by comparing changes in echolocation characteristics during three UD frequency emissions among species, between seasons, and between sex. We hypothesized that UD emissions with frequencies most similar to each species’ echolocation characteristics would be more likely to alter the bats’ echolocation, and bat responses would vary between seasons and sex for each species. We released wild-captured bats into a 60 m × 10 m × 4.4 m (length × width × height) flight cage located in San Marcos, Texas, USA, from July to October 2020 and March to May 2021 and monitored echolocation frequencies with ultrasonic microphones. We conducted trials on Brazilian free-tailed bats ( Tadarida brasiliensis ; n = 54), cave myotis ( Myotis velifer ; n = 44), red bats ( Lasiurus blossevilli , Lasiurus borealis ; n = 41), evening bats ( Nycticeius humeralis ; n = 32), and tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ; n = 8). We found that species with high-frequency echolocation calls altered their echolocation signatures more commonly during high-frequency UD emissions, whereas low-frequency bats altered their echolocation signatures more commonly during low-frequency UD emissions. Additionally, echolocation responses varied between seasons and sexes for several species. Variations in responses may be dependent on species migratory status, differences in mating behavior and mating season, hormonal differences between sexes and seasons, and/or constraints on echolocation adaptability. Our results offer insights into the variable effectiveness of UDs at reducing bat fatalities at wind turbines and provide information for potential adjustments to UDs for improved success.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous organic synthesis for redox flow batteries via flexible batch Bayesian optimization

Traditional trial-and-error methods for materials discovery are inefficient to meet the urgent demands posed by the rapid progression of climate change. This urgency has driven the increasing interest in integrating robotics and machine learning into materials research to accelerate experimental learning. However, idealized decision-making frameworks to achieve maximum sampling efficiency are not always compatible with high-throughput experimental workflows inside a laboratory. For multi-step chemical processes, differences in hardware capacities can complicate the digital framework by introducing constraints on the maximum number of samples in each step of the experiment, hence causing varying batch sizes in variable selection within the same batch. Therefore, designing flexible sampling algorithms is necessary to accommodate the multi-step synthesis with practical constraints unique to each high-throughput workflow. In this work, we designed and employed three strategies on a high-throughput robotic platform to optimize the sulfonation reaction of redox-active molecules used in flow batteries. Our strategies adapt to the multi-step experimental workflow, where their formulation and heating steps are separate, causing varying batch size requirements. By strategically sampling using clustering and mixed-variable batch Bayesian optimization, we were able to iteratively identify optimal conditions that maximize the yields. Our work presents a flexible approach that allows tailoring the machine learning decision-making to suit the practical constraints in individual high-throughput experimental platforms, followed by performing resource-efficient yield optimization using available open-source Python libraries.

Tamura, Clara [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (U↗
DOE OSTI2025

The effects of environmental conditions on eggshell thickness of two North American secondary cavity-nesting birds

Egg hatchability in birds is a critical component of individual reproductive success and is associated with eggshell integrity. Contaminants, such as DDT, can influence eggshell thickness and are known to cause population declines. Moisture content and temperature can also impact eggshell thickness, but the influence of environmental conditions on the natural variation in eggshell thickness in wild populations is not well understood. Our goal was to investigate the relationship between environmental conditions and eggshell thickness of Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and Ash-throated Flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens) eggs from 1997 to 2013 on the Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. We tested whether nesting elevation, temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions influenced eggshell thickness in these two secondary cavity-nesting species, while also looking at eggshell thickness over time. Over the 16 years, nonviable or abandoned eggs were collected, and the analyzed dataset included 330 bluebird eggs and 113 flycatcher eggs. There was a significant increase in eggshell thickness over time for both species. Flycatcher eggshells were correlated with higher temperatures, whereas bluebird eggshells were influenced by an interaction between temperature and drought severity. In drought conditions, bluebird eggshell thickness was positively correlated with temperature, whereas in wet conditions, eggshell thickness was negatively correlated with temperature. Thicker eggshells in drought conditions may be a way of reducing water loss from eggs, which occurs faster at higher temperatures. In the southwestern United States, frequent and severe drought, higher temperatures, and decreases in precipitation are all expected to continue. In conclusion, the structure of eggs will be important to consider regarding how species may or may not adapt to novel conditions or persist in new environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have emerged over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

Assessment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Permanent Stress Adaptation and Unexpected High Light Tolerance in the Shade-Adapted Chlamydomonas priscui

The Antarctic photopsychrophile, Chlamydomonas priscui UWO241, is adapted to extreme environmental conditions, including permanent low temperatures, high salt, and shade. During long-term exposure to this extreme habitat, UWO241 appears to have lost several short-term mechanisms in favor of constitutive protection against environmental stress. This study investigated the physiological and growth responses of UWO241 to high-light conditions, evaluating the impacts of long-term acclimation to high light, low temperature, and high salinity on its ability to manage short-term photoinhibition. We found that UWO241 significantly increased its growth rate and photosynthetic activity at growth irradiances far exceeding native light conditions. Furthermore, UWO241 exhibited robust protection against short-term photoinhibition, particularly in photosystem I. Lastly, pre-acclimation to high light or low temperatures, but not high salinity, enhanced photoinhibition tolerance. These findings extend our understanding of stress tolerance in extremophilic algae. In the past 2 decades, climate change-related increasing glacial stream flow has perturbed long-term stable conditions, which has been associated with lake level rise, the thinning of ice covers, and the expansion of ice-free perimeters, leading to perturbations in light and salinity conditions. Our findings have implications for phytoplankton survival and the response to change scenarios in the light-limited environment of Antarctic ice-covered lakes.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connecting agriculture and renewable energy: insights into microclimatic changes, physiological, biochemical, and yield responses under agrivoltaics: a review

Agrivoltaics, the synergistic integration of agriculture and solar energy production on the same piece of land, has emerged as a compelling dual-use solution that maximizes land productivity while simultaneously addressing the need for sustainable agricultural practices and renewable energy generation. Despite the growing global interest in this dual-use system, the microclimatic shifts created beneath solar panels and their consequences for crop performance remain insufficiently synthesized. This review highlights the intricate interactions between agrivoltaics systems and plant microclimates, discussing their impacts on various physiological processes, metabolic pathways, and overall yield responses in different crop species. Evidence indicates that moderated light intensity and altered microclimates can enhance water-use efficiency, stabilize photosynthetic function, and trigger beneficial metabolic adjustments; however, responses remain highly species-specific and strongly dependent on regional climate conditions and panel configuration. Yield outcomes vary widely among vegetables, cereals, pulses, and fruit crops, highlighting the necessity for tailored agronomic strategies and crop selection within agrivoltaic designs. A critical knowledge gap identified in this review concerns the limited understanding of molecular and omics-level responses underlying plant adaptation to agrivoltaic environments. We further provide a detailed and interdisciplinary overview of adaptive agronomic strategies, and optimal crop selection, tailored to agrivoltaic systems. Despite the benefits of land use efficiency and simultaneous food and energy production, challenges remain concerning initial investment, technological adaptation, social and legal barriers, and shade-induced yield penalties. Further research in this area will be critical to enhancing the agricultural, environmental, and economic sustainability of agrivoltaics while simultaneously augmenting their practical utility and appeal to farmers in the future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Salinity–induced limits to mangrove canopy height

Aim: Mangrove canopy height is a key metric to assess tidal forests' resilience in the face of climate change. In terrestrial forests, tree height is primarily determined by water availability, plant hydraulic design, and disturbance regime. However, the role of water stress remains elusive in tidal environments, where saturated soils are prevalent, and salinity can substantially affect the soil water potential. Location: Global. Time Period: The canopy height dataset provides a global snapshot of the maximum mangrove height geographical distribution for the year 2000. Climate and environmental variables extend over the period 1970–2018. Major Taxa Studied: Mangroves. Methods: We use global observations of maximum canopy height, species richness, air temperature, and seawater salinity—a proxy of soil water salt concentration—to explore the causal link between salinity and mangrove stature. Results: Our findings suggest that salt stress limits mangrove height. High salinity favours more salt-tolerant species, narrowing the spectrum of viable traits. Highly salt-tolerant mangroves have evolved to cope with high salt concentrations in the soil, but this adaptation comes at a cost. They typically have lower rates of photosynthesis and growth, resulting in reduced productivity and smaller stature compared to more salt-sensitive mangrove species. This suggests a causal link between salinity, biodiversity, and tree height, where high salinity selects for more salt-tolerant species that tend to be less productive and shorter. Conclusions: We hypothesize that the salinity-induced limit to mangrove canopy height is the direct result of a reduction of primary productivity, an increment in the risk of xylem cavitation, and an indirect consequence of the decrease in biodiversity. As sea-level rise enhances coastal salinisation, failure to account for these effects can lead to incorrect estimates of future carbon stocks in Tropical coastal ecosystems and endanger preservation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2019

Observational Needs for Improving Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and Decadal Prediction

Developments in ocean data assimilation (DA) and observing system technologies are intertwined. New observation types lead to new DA methods, and new DA methods such as Coupled Data Assimilation can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example in strongly coupled data assimilation where ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate,as well as initializing operational long-range prediction models. There are remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and simplifying assumptions made in the DA methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to interface the observing community and the ocean DA community. For prediction applications, the ocean DA community must work with the ocean observing community to establish protocols for rapid communication of ocean observing data on NWP timescales. There is potential for new observations to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of numerical weather prediction covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. It is highly encouraged that communication be fostered between thesecommunities to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance to the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network.

Ocean reanalysis↗
NASA NTRS2019

Sensitivity of Maize Yield in Smallholder Systems to Climate Scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions of West Africa: Accounting for Variability in Farm Management Practices

Climate change is estimated to exacerbate existing challenges faced by smallholder farmers in Sub-Sahara Africa. However, limited studies quantify the extent of variation in climate change impact under these systems at the local scale. The Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) was used to quantify variation in climate change impacts on maize yield under current agricultural practices in semi-arid regions of Senegal (Nioro du Rip) and Ghana (Navrongo and Tamale). Multi-benchmark climate models (Mid-Century, 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and multiple soil and management information from agronomic surveys were used as input for DSSAT. The average impact of climate scenarios on grain yield among farms ranged between −9% and −39% across sites. Substantial variation in climate response exists across farms in the same farming zone with relative standard deviations from 8% to 117% at Nioro du Rip, 13% to 64% in Navrongo and 9% to 37% in Tamale across climate models. Variations in fertilizer application, planting dates and soil types explained the variation in the impact among farms. This study provides insight into the complexities of the impact of climate scenarios on maize yield and the need for better representation of heterogeneous farming systems for optimized outcomes in adaptation and resilience planning in smallholder systems.

Freduah, Bright S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of salinity on morphology, growth, and pigment profiles of Scenedesmus obliquus HTB1 under ambient air and elevated CO 2 (10 %) conditions

Certain microalgal species, such as Scenedesmus obliquus strain HTB1, thrive under high CO 2 concentrations, making them promising for carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. Isolated from the Baltimore Inner Harbor, HTB1 grows faster with 10 % CO 2 than with ambient air. To investigate its responses to salinity and elevated CO 2 , two experiments were conducted. In the first, HTB1 was cultured at seven different salinities (0, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, and 30 ppt) (parts per thousand) under ambient air. Higher salinity caused cell shrinkage, color changes from green to pale white, reduced pigments like zeaxanthin, lutein, and chlorophyll b, but increased canthaxanthin. Growth declined significantly above 22.5 ppt. The second experiment compared HTB1's response to salinity (0, 10, 20 ppt) under air and 10 % CO 2 . Cultures under 10 % CO 2 showed minimal color changes, while those under air shifted from green to brown, with salinity having less inhibitory effects on growth under elevated CO 2 . Interestingly, lutein and canthaxanthin levels rose with salinity in 10 % CO 2 . These findings indicate that elevated CO 2 mitigates salt stress in HTB1, reducing its impact on growth and promoting adaptive pigment changes. This study sheds light on how salinity and CO 2 interact to influence HTB1's morphology, growth, and pigment composition, enhancing our understanding of its resilience and potential applications.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Hotspots of Salt Marsh Change and Carbon Emissions

Salt marshes provide ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, coastal protection, sea-level-rise (SLR) adaptation and recreation. SLR, storm events, drainage and mangrove encroachment are known drivers of salt marsh loss. However, the global magnitude and location of changes in salt marsh extent remains uncertain. Here we conduct a global and systematic change analysis of Landsat satellite imagery from the years 2000–2019 to quantify the loss, gain and recovery of salt marsh ecosystems and then estimate the impact of these changes on blue carbon stocks. We show a net salt marsh loss globally, equivalent to an area double the size of Singapore (719 km^2), with a loss rate of 0.28% year^(−1) from 2000 to 2019. Net global losses resulted in 16.3 (0.4–33.2, 90% confidence interval) Tg CO_2 e year^(−1) emissions from 2000 to 2019 and a 0.045 (−0.14–0.115) Tg CO_2 e year^(−1) reduction of carbon burial. Russia and the USA accounted for 64% of salt marsh losses, driven by hurricanes and coastal erosion. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of salt marsh systems to climatic changes such as SLR and intensification of storms and cyclones.

Carbon Monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2024

Invasive Plant Species Management Plan for Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev.3)

Native species are plants and animals that continually occupy a natural range without direct or indirect introduction and/or care by humans. They are adapted to the environmental conditions and processes of the ecosystem in which they reside. A species introduced into a novel ecosystem can either exploit that ecosystem and thrive or be unable to survive in that ecosystem (Hobbs et al. 2006). Alien or non-native species are species that are intentionally or accidentally introduced into a novel ecosystem and are capable of living and propagating within the physical parameters of that ecosystem. Invasive species is a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and a noxious species are those whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm. The term invasive species is applicable to plants and animals alike; however, this invasive species management plan currently focuses on invasive vegetation. Invasive plant species are usually capable of rapid colonization of disturbed ground, such as after a change in wildfire regime intensity and frequency (Reilly et al. 2020) or anthropogenic ground disturbance (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992). Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new opportunities for them to become invasive (Turbelin and Catford 2021). As climate change impacts increase in the coming decades, we may see in an increase in invasive species establishment. See a list of definitions of terms pertinent to this document in Appendix A: Definitions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosts populations of non-native and invasive species all typical of the northern New Mexico region (Martin 2004; NMDA 2020). By implementing an invasive species management plan, LANL will have readily accessible management strategies for invasive species that are found on-site. The benefits of managing invasive species include a decrease in wildland fire risks, an increase in soil productivity, an increase in (productive or beneficial) wildlife habitat, an increase in water quantity and quality, and the restoration of impacted areas (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; D’Antonio and Hobbie 2005; MacDougall et al. 2013; Reilly et al. 2020). The aforementioned benefits from invasive species management directly enable the LANL mission by ensuring compliance requirements are met and site-wide programs, such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan, are supported for a mutually beneficial outcome. An example for the LANL site specifically, controlling non-native annual plant species, for example, could reduce the costs associated with stabilizing soils during the stormwater pollution prevention compliance process. Roadway and utility right-of-way areas are another place where an integrated vegetation management strategy would promote low growing perennial plants in a way that is mutually beneficial to habitat and the institution through lowered maintenance costs. There is also an economic benefit to managing invasive species. In one nationwide study, invasive plants had an estimated impact cost of $190.45 billion (Fantel-Lepczyk et al. 2022). Investing in preventative measures and surveillance could help to offset future control and management costs of invasive species that have the potential to become established. The State of New Mexico has developed plant species lists and recommendations through the New Mexico Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weeds Management Act, Article 7D (NM Statute § 76-7D-4 2021); however, effective invasive species management must rely on local knowledge of the site and region. Los Alamos County (LAC) has already compiled a target invasive plant species list and species-specific management objectives (Martin 2004). Therefore, the New Mexico Noxious Weed List and the LAC invasive plant species list, as well as management objectives from those documents, are integrated into LANL’s invasive plant species management plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Satellite Assessment of the Urban Heat Island in Morocco

Urban ecosystems interact with surroundings via land cover changes and their subsequent impact on surface temperature. In emerging countries, large urban agglomerations often form around cities, and only few studies have evaluated their impact. This study carries out the first ever large-scale assessment of urban heat island (UHI) and reflects on its mitigation in Morocco.The analysis reveals a well-defined UHI in urban-areas built within vegetated lands and an urban heat sink (UHS) in urban-areas built within arid regions. Both UHI and UHS amplitudes are higher during day than nighttime, emphasizing vegetation physiological activity. We show a monotonic increase in UHI amplitude with urban-area size. However, unlike previous studies, our analysis shows that as urban-areas built in desert-like environments grow in size, the UHS gradually decreases to ultimately turn into an UHI. On average, cities built within vegetation are warmer than rural fringe by 1.51°C during daytime. This suggests that daytime urban heating may exacerbate the potential climate warming. Our results also suggest that adapted trees constitute a natural cooling mechanism and should be part of urban heating mitigation in Morocco.

Urban Heat Sink↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive variation and plasticity in non‐structural carbohydrate storage in a temperate tree species

Abstract Trees' total amount of non‐structural carbohydrate (NSC) stores and the proportion of these stores residing as insoluble starch are vital traits for individuals living in variable environments. However, our understanding of how stores vary in response to environmental stress is poorly understood as the genetic component of storage is rarely accounted for in studies. Here, we quantified variation in NSC traits in branch samples taken from over 600 clonally transplanted black cottonwood ( Populus trichocarpa) trees grown in two common gardens. We found heritable variation in both total NSC stores and the proportion of stores in starch (H 2 TNC = 0.19, H 2 PropStarch = 0.31), indicating a substantial genetic component of variation. In addition, we found high amounts of plasticity in both traits in response to cold temperatures and significant genotype‐by‐environment (GxE) interactions in the total amount of NSC stored (54% of P is GxE). This finding of high GxE indicates extensive variation across trees in their response to environment, which may explain why previous studies of carbohydrate stores' responses to stress have failed to converge on a consistent pattern. Overall, we found high amounts of environmental and genetic variation in NSC storage concentrations, which may bolster species against future climate change.

Blumstein, Meghan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗