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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Soft X-ray spectrometer design for warm dense plasma measurements on DARHT Axis-I

A preliminary design study is being performed on a soft X-ray spectrometer to measure K-shell spectra emitted by a warm dense plasma generated on Axis-I of the Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Testing (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The 100-ns-long intense, relativistic electron pulse with a beam current of 1.7 kA and energy of 19.8 MeV deposits energy into a thin metal foil heating it to a warm dense plasma. The collisional ionization of the target by the electron beam produces an anisotropic angular distribution of K-shell radiation and a continuum of both scattered electrons and Bremsstrahlung up to the beam energy of 19.8 MeV. The principal goal of this project is to characterize these angular distributions to determine the optimal location to deploy the soft X-ray spectrometer. In addition, a proof-of-principle design will be presented. The ultimate goal of the spectrometer is to obtain measurements of the plasma temperature and density to benchmark equation-of-state models of the warm dense matter regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the Variation and Covariation of Cloud Microphysical Properties and Implications for Simulation of Subgrid-scale Warm-Rain Processes in Earth System Models (Final DOE-ASR Report)

Warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds constitute an important component in the global climate system, and precipitation plays a central role in controlling the water budget, radiative effects, and lifetime of these MBL clouds. Unfortunately, because of the relatively coarse effective grid resolution of the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs), the variety of cloud microphysical processes occurring inside an ESM grid cell are often oversimplified or unconstrained by observations. For example, the warm rain processes (e.g., autoconversion and accretion) are usually parameterized as nonlinear functions of grid-mean cloud properties. Because of the nonlinear nature of these functions, neglecting variability within the ESM grid volume can lead to substantial biases in precipitation production, cloud cover, and surface radiative fluxes. In state-of-the art ESMs, the influence of subgrid-scale variability is represented as an enhancement factor (EF) coefficient to the autoconversion, and accretion rates calculated from the model variables. However, EF is typically taken to be a constant or even used as a knob to tune model cloud properties to match observations, an ad hoc approach that may yield a desired cloud outcome yet introduce compensating errors. In this project, we used the combination of in situ cloud microphysics measurements from the ACE-ENA field campaign and large-eddy simulations (LES) to characterize and understand subgrid-scale variations and co-variations of cloud microphysical properties and use the results to evaluate and improve the representation of subgrid warm-rain processes in ESMs, in particular the EF used to tune the autoconversion and accretion processes. In this final report, we summarize our research activities and main findings in Section 2, provide a list of publications (Section 3) and presentations (Section 4) resulted from our research, and briefly discuss the student activities supported by this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

SPRUCE Deep Peat Heating (DPH) to Whole Ecosystem Warming (WEW) Metagenomes for Peat Samples Collected June 2016

This data set provides links to the results of metagenomic analyses of 44 peat samples collected on 13 June 2016 from SPRUCE experiment treatment and ambient plots. Experimental plots had received approximately 24 months of belowground warming (deep peat heating (DPH), Hanson et al. 2015) with the last 9 of those months including air warming for implementation of whole ecosystems warming (WEW – Hanson et al. 2016). The SPRUCE experiment site is located in an ombrotrophic bog forest in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). WEW Metagenomes: Data from these metagenomes are archived in the U.S. Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (DOE JGI) Integrated Microbial Genomes (IMG) system and are available at the accession numbers provided below (Table 2) and in the accompanying inventory file. The easiest way to find results on IMG is at this link, https://img.jgi.doe.gov/cgi-bin/m/main.cgi, and then enter “June2016WEW” as a search term in the “Quick Genome Search:” box at the top of the page. This work was done in collaboration between ORNL, USFS and the DOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI) study that is targeting understanding the microbial metagenomes of “fungal, bacterial, and archaeal communities mediating C cycling and trace gas flux in peatland ecosystems subject to climate change” (Proposal ID: 1445).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

SPRUCE High-Resolution Minirhizotrons in an Experimentally-Warmed Peatland Provide an Unprecedented Glimpse at Fine Roots and their Fungal Partners: Supporting Data

Images were collected using first of their kind, non-destructive, high-resolution automated minirhizotrons (RhizoSystems, LLC) to assess the response of plant fine-root and fungal mycelium dynamics to elevated temperatures after 4-6 years of whole-ecosystem warming and exposure to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations (e[CO2]) in a peat bog where the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experiment is located. We focused on two SPRUCE experimental plots: Plot 10 has elevated temperature (+9°C) and plot 19 is a control (+0°C). Both have elevated carbon dioxide (e[CO2]). Changes in root and fungal abundance with warming were estimated from a timeseries of landscape-level mosaiced images for each plot by measuring the proportional abundance of five belowground classes: fine roots of vascular plants, ectomycorrhizas, fungal hyphae, fungal rhizomorphs, and fungal sporocarps. To examine root and fungal phenology responses to warming, the length per individual root or fungal structure (except fungal hyphae that did not grow linearly but rather increased in areal coverage) were measured per image area of a set of timeseries patch-level mosaiced images for each plot. The experimental work was conducted in a Picea mariana [black spruce] – Sphagnum spp. bog forest in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). This ecosystem, which is located at the southern margin of the boreal forest, is considered especially vulnerable to climate change and anticipated to be near its tipping point. These data were used in analyses published in Defrenne et al (2021). This dataset contains 5 data files in comma-separate values (*.csv) format and a compressed folder (*.zip) containing 383 JPEG (*.jpg) images. Data files contain landscape-level assessment of belowground class abundance, patch-level growth phenology, and environmental variables (originally published in Hanson et al., 2016 and Hanson et al 2020). Images were collected with automated minirhizotrons and analyzed for phenology. Additional metadata are provided: 5 data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SPRUCE Sphagnum Phytobiome Responses to Whole Ecosystem Warming and Elevated Atmospheric CO2 in July, 2017-2021

This dataset reports the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) isotopic composition of Sphagnum moss tissue collected from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site within the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA. Tissues were collected inside the SPRUCE experimental study plot, where air and peat warming are combined in whole-ecosystem warming treatments, from 2019-2021. Additionally, rates of nitrogen fixation and methane oxidation measured for Sphagnum from 2017, 2019, and 2021. Sphagnum tissue % water content was measured at all timepoints. This dataset was used to conduct analyses within Petro et al (2023). Sphagnum C and N concentrations and 13C and 15N isotopic natural abundance were determined for three replicate Sphagnum tissue samples collected from inside the SPRUCE enclosures in July 2019-2021. Elemental and isotope analyses were conducted at the University of Georgia – Center for Applied Isotope Studies (CAIS; https://cais.uga.edu/). Plant elemental analysis was performed by the micro-Dumas method, while isotopic natural abundance was measured by isotope ratio mass spectrometry. 13C natural abundance is expressed as the per mille (‰) deviation from the Pee Dee Belemnite standard (PDB) 13C:12C ratio (δ13C), while 15N natural abundance is expressed as the ‰ deviation from the N2 atmospheric 15N:14N ratio (δ15N). Rates of nitrogen fixation and methane oxidation were measured using serum bottle incubations performed with Sphagnum collected inside the SPRUCE enclosures in July 2017, 2019, and 2021. Rates were calculated according to the amount of 15N-N2 or 13C-CH4 (methane) incorporated into the Sphagnum tissue or incubation headspace over the 48-hour intion period. In 2017, incubations were performed in growth chambers set to the temperature of the experimental plots during Sphagnum sampling. In 2019 and 2021, the incubations were performed directly inside the experimental plots. The 13C and 15N isotopic natural abundance data and rate measurements presented in this dataset provide insight into the impacts of whole-ecosystem warming and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on N and C cycling within the Sphagnum phytobiome. This dataset contains two data files in comma-separate values (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: two data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format. Additional datasets on NH4-N availability, porewater concentrations of CH4 and CO2, and Sphagnum groundcover within the SPRUCE experimental plots are available. These are outlined in the Related Datasets section in the user guide.

delta 13 carbon↗
DOE OSTI2016

SPRUCE Whole Ecosystems Warming (WEW) Environmental Data Beginning August 2015

This data set provides a record of the half-hourly averages of automated environmental data collected for 12 SPRUCE plots (4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, and 21) beginning during deep peat heating (DPH) and continuing throughout the whole ecosystem warming (WEW) manipulations for the SPRUCE Project (Hanson et al. 2017). In August 2015, WEW was initiated at 5 warming levels (+0, +2.25 +4.5, +6.75 and +9 °C) with 2 plots per warming level. DPH measurements were underway before the initiation of WEW heating treatments and both are expected to operate through 2025. This current version includes data from 2014 through 2024. This data set includes 15 data files provided in comma separated (*.csv) format: 12 individual data files for each of the monitored SPRUCE plots, two data files corresponding to figures from Hanson et al. (2017) that support key analyses of the performance of the WEW systems, and one data file containing snow and ice depths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Denitrifying and diazotrophic community responses to artificial warming in permafrost and tallgrass prairie soils

Increasing temperatures have been shown to impact soil biogeochemical processes, although the corresponding changes to the underlying microbial functional communities are not well understood. Alterations in the nitrogen (N) cycling functional component are particularly important as N availability can affect microbial decomposition rates of soil organic matter and influence plant productivity. To assess changes in the microbial component responsible for these changes, the composition of the N-fixing (nifH), and denitrifying (nirS, nirK, nosZ) soil microbial communities was assessed by targeted pyrosequencing of functional genes involved in N cycling in two major biomes where the experimental effect of climate warming is under investigation, a tallgrass prairie in Oklahoma (OK) and the active layer above permafrost in Alaska (AK). Raw reads were processed for quality, translated with frameshift correction, and a total of 313,842 amino acid sequences were clustered and linked to a nearest neighbor using reference datasets. The number of OTUs recovered ranged from 231 (NifH) to 862 (NirK). The N functional microbial communities of the prairie, which had experienced a decade of experimental warming were the most affected with changes in the richness and/or overall structure of NifH, NirS, NirK and NosZ. In contrast, the AK permafrost communities, which had experienced only 1 year of warming, showed decreased richness and a structural change only with the nirK-harboring bacterial community. A highly divergent nirK-harboring bacterial community was identified in the permafrost soils, suggesting much novelty, while other N functional communities exhibited similar relatedness to the reference databases, regardless of site. Lastly, prairie and permafrost soils also harbored highly divergent communities due mostly to differing major populations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phosphor Ceramic Composite for Tunable Warm White Light

Composite phosphor ceramics for warm white LED lighting were fabricated with K 2 SiF 6 :Mn 4+ (KSF) as both a narrowband red phosphor and a translucent matrix in which yellow-emitting Y 3 Al 5 O 12 :Ce 3+ (YAG) particles were dispersed. The emission spectra of these composites under blue LED excitation were studied as a function of YAG loading and thickness. Warm white light with a color temperature of 2716 K, a high CRI of 92.6, and an R9 of 77.6 was achieved. A modest improvement in the thermal conductivity of the KSF ceramic of up to 9% was observed with the addition of YAG particles. In addition, a simple model was developed for predicting the emission spectra based on several parameters of the composite ceramics and validated with the experimental results. The emission spectrum can be tuned by varying the dopant concentrations, thickness, YAG loading, and YAG particle size. This work demonstrates the utility of KSF/YAG composite phosphor ceramics as a means of producing warm white light, which are potentially suitable for higher-drive applications due to their increased thermal conductivity and reduced droop compared with silicone-dispersed phosphor powders.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Highly Eccentric Warm Jupiter Orbiting TIC 237913194

The orbital parameters of warm Jupiters serve as a record of their formation history, providing constraints on formation scenarios for giant planets on close and intermediate orbits. Here, we report the discovery of TIC 237913194b, detected in full-frame images from Sectors 1 and 2 of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), ground-based photometry (Chilean–Hungarian Automated Telescope, Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope), and Fiber-fed Extended Range Optical Spectrograph radial velocity time series. We constrain its mass to M P = 1.942 -0.091 +0.091 M J and its radius to R P = 1.117 -0.047 +0.054 R J , implying a bulk density similar to Neptune’s. It orbits a G-type star (M ∗ = 1.026 -0.055 +0.057 M ⊙ , V = 12.1 mag) with a period of 15.17 days on one of the most eccentric orbits of all known warm giants (e ≈ 0.58). This extreme dynamical state points to a past interaction with an additional, undetected massive companion. A tidal evolution analysis showed a large tidal dissipation timescale, suggesting that the planet is not a progenitor for a hot Jupiter caught during its high-eccentricity migration. TIC 237913194b further represents an attractive opportunity to study the energy deposition and redistribution in the atmosphere of a warm Jupiter with high eccentricity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Aligned Orbit of the Eccentric Warm Jupiter K2-232b

Measuring the obliquity distribution of stars hosting warm Jupiters may help us to understand the formation of close-orbiting gas giants. Few such measurements have been performed due to practical difficulties in scheduling observations of the relatively infrequent and long-duration transits of warm Jupiters. Here, we report a measurement of the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect for K2-232 b, a warm Jupiter on an 11.17 day orbit with an eccentricity of 0.26. The data were obtained with the Automated Planet Finder during two separate transits. The planet’s orbit appears to be well aligned with the spin axis of the host star, with a projected spin–orbit angle of λ = −11.°1 ± 6.°6. Combined with the other available data, we find that high obliquities are almost exclusively associated with planets that either have an orbital separation greater than 10 stellar radii or orbit stars with effective temperatures hotter than 6000 K. This pattern suggests that the obliquities of the closest-orbiting giant planets around cooler stars have been damped by tidal effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The MASSIVE Survey. VI. The Spatial Distribution and Kinematics of Warm Ionized Gas in the Most Massive Local Early-type Galaxies

We present the first systematic investigation of the existence, spatial distribution, and kinematics of warm ionized gas as traced by the [O ii] 3727 Å emission line in 74 of the most massive galaxies in the local universe. All of our galaxies have deep integral-field spectroscopy from the volume- and magnitude-limited MASSIVE survey of early-type galaxies with stellar mass log(M{sub ∗}/M{sub ⊙})>11.5 (M {sub K} < −25.3 mag) and distance D < 108 Mpc. Of the 74 galaxies in our sample, we detect warm ionized gas in 28, which yields a global detection fraction of 38 ± 6% down to a typical [O ii] equivalent width limit of 2 Å. MASSIVE fast rotators are more likely to have gas than MASSIVE slow rotators with detection fractions of 80 ± 10% and 28 ± 6%, respectively. The spatial extents span a wide range of radii (0.6–18.2 kpc; 0.1–4R {sub e}), and the gas morphologies are diverse, with 17/28 ≈ 61 ± 9% being centrally concentrated, 8/28 ≈ 29 ± 9% exhibiting clear rotation out to several kiloparsecs, and 3/28 ≈ 11 ± 6% being extended but patchy. Three out of four fast rotators show kinematic alignment between the stars and gas, whereas the two slow rotators with robust kinematic measurements available exhibit kinematic misalignment. Our inferred warm ionized gas masses are roughly ∼10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙}. The emission line ratios and radial equivalent width profiles are generally consistent with excitation of the gas by the old underlying stellar population. We explore different gas origin scenarios for MASSIVE galaxies and find that a variety of physical processes are likely at play, including internal gas recycling, cooling out of the hot gaseous halo, and gas acquired via mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Warm Circumgalactic Medium: 10{sup 5−6} K Gas Associated with a Single Galaxy Halo or with an Entire Group of Galaxies?

In preparation for a Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observing project using the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS), the positions of all AGN targets having high-S/N far-UV G130M spectra were cross-correlated with a large catalog of low-redshift galaxy groups homogenously selected from the spectroscopic sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Searching for targets behind only those groups at z = 0.1–0.2 (which places the O vi doublet in the wavelength region of peak COS sensitivity), we identified only one potential S/N=15--20 target, FBQS 1010+3003. An O vi-only absorber was found in its G130M spectrum at z = 0.11326, close to the redshift of a foreground small group of luminous galaxies at z = 0.11685. Because there is no associated Lyα absorption, any characterization of this absorber is necessarily minimal; however, the O vi detection likely traces “warm” gas in collisional ionization equilibrium at T ≈ 3 × 10{sup 5} K. While this discovery is consistent with being interface gas between cooler, photoionized clouds and a hotter intra-group medium, it could also be warm, interface gas associated with the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of the single closest galaxy. In this case, a detailed analysis of the galaxy distribution (complete to 0.2 L{sup ∗}) strongly favors the individual galaxy association. This analysis highlights the necessity of both high-S/N>20 COS data and a deep galaxy redshift survey of the region in order to test more rigorously the association of O vi-absorbing gas with a galaxy group. A Cycle 23 HST/COS program is currently targeting 10 UV-bright AGN behind 12 low-redshift galaxy groups to test the warm, group gas hypothesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Models of Warm Jupiter Atmospheres: Observable Signatures of Obliquity

We present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models of a hypothetical “warm Jupiter” planet, for a range of possible obliquities from 0° to 90°. We model a Jupiter-mass planet on a 10 day orbit around a Sun-like star, since this hypothetical planet sits at the boundary between planets for which we expect that tidal forces should have aligned their rotation axes with their orbital axes (i.e., ones with zero obliquity) and planets whose timescale for tidal alignment is longer than the typical age of an exoplanet system. In line with observational progress, which is pushing atmospheric characterization for planets on longer orbital periods, we calculate the observable signatures of obliquity for a transiting warm Jupiter: in orbital phase curves of thermal emission and in the hemispheric flux gradients that could be measured by eclipse mapping. For both of these predicted measurements, the signal that we would see depends strongly on our viewing geometry relative to the orientation of the planet’s rotation axis, and we thoroughly identify the degeneracies that result. We compare these signals to the predicted sensitivities of current and future instruments and determine that the James Webb Space Telescope should be able to constrain the obliquities of nearby warm Jupiters to be small (if ⩽10{sup ∘}) or to directly measure them if significantly non-zero (⩾30{sup ∘}) using the technique of eclipse mapping. For a bright target and assuming photon-limited precision, this could be done with a single secondary eclipse observation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quasar Rain: The Broad Emission Line Region as Condensations in the Warm Accretion Disk Wind

The origin of the broad emission line region (BELR) in quasars and active galactic nuclei is still unclear. I propose that condensations form in the warm, radiation-pressure-driven, accretion disk wind of quasars creating the BEL clouds and uniting them with the other two manifestations of cool (∼10{sup 4} K) gas in quasars, the low ionization phase of the warm absorbers (WAs) and the clouds causing X-ray eclipses. The cool clouds will condense quickly (days to years), before the WA outflows reach escape velocity (which takes months to centuries). Cool clouds form in equilibrium with the warm phase of the wind because the rapidly varying X-ray quasar continuum changes the force multiplier, causing pressure waves to move gas into stable locations in pressure–temperature space. The narrow range of two-phase equilibrium densities may explain the (luminosity){sup 1/2} scaling of the BELR size, while the scaling of cloud formation timescales could produce the Baldwin effect. These dense clouds have force multipliers of order unity and so cannot be accelerated to escape velocity. They fall back on a dynamical timescale (months to centuries), producing an inflow that rains down toward the central black hole. As they soon move at Mach ∼10–100 with respect to the WA outflow, these “raindrops” will be rapidly destroyed within months. This rain of clouds may produce the elliptical BELR orbits implied by velocity-resolved reverberation mapping in some objects and can explain the opening angle and destruction timescale of the narrow “cometary” tails of the clouds seen in X-ray eclipse observations. Some consequences and challenges of this “quasar rain” model are presented, along with several avenues for theoretical investigation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Responses of two nonlinear microbial models to warming and increased carbon input

A number of nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition have been developed. Some of them have been applied globally but have yet to be shown to realistically represent soil carbon dynamics in the field. A thorough analysis of their key differences is needed to inform future model developments. In this paper, we compare two nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition: one based on reverse Michaelis–Menten kinetics (model A) and the other on regular Michaelis–Menten kinetics (model B). Using analytic approximations and numerical solutions, we find that the oscillatory responses of carbon pools to a small perturbation in their initial pool sizes dampen faster in model A than in model B. Soil warming always decreases carbon storage in model A, but in model B it predominantly decreases carbon storage in cool regions and increases carbon storage in warm regions. For both models, the CO 2 efflux from soil carbon decomposition reaches a maximum value some time after increased carbon input (as in priming experiments). This maximum CO 2 efflux (F max ) decreases with an increase in soil temperature in both models. However, the sensitivity of F max to the increased amount of carbon input increases with soil temperature in model A but decreases monotonically with an increase in soil temperature in model B. These differences in the responses to soil warming and carbon input between the two nonlinear models can be used to discern which model is more realistic when compared to results from field or laboratory experiments. Lastly, these insights will contribute to an improved understanding of the significance of soil microbial processes in soil carbon responses to future climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO 2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is -0.36 to 0.29°C, with a model ensemble mean of -0.07 °C, median of -0.05°C, and standard deviation of 0.19°C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

MacDougall, Andrew H.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China

The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C; it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006–2015), 1.5, and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106–2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to provide more comprehensive and robust results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗