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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Type IIb supernova 2013df entering into an interaction phase: a link between the progenitor and the mass loss

We report the late-time evolution of Type IIb supernova (SN IIb) 2013df. SN 2013df showed a dramatic change in its spectral features at ∼1 yr after the explosion. Early on it showed typical characteristics shared by SNe IIb/Ib/Ic dominated by metal emission lines, while later on it was dominated by broad and flat-topped Hα and He i emissions. The late-time spectra are strikingly similar to SN IIb 1993J, which is the only previous example clearly showing the same transition. This late-time evolution is fully explained by a change in the energy input from the {sup 56}Co decay to the interaction between the SN ejecta and dense circumstellar matter (CSM). The mass-loss rate is derived to be ∼(5.4±3.2)×10{sup −5} M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} (for the wind velocity of ∼20 km s{sup −1}), similar to SN 1993J but larger than SN IIb 2011dh by an order of magnitude. The striking similarity between SNe IIb 2013df and 1993J in the (candidate) progenitors and the CSM environments and the contrast in these natures to SN 2011dh infer that there is a link between the natures of the progenitor and the mass loss: SNe IIb with a more extended progenitor have experienced a much stronger mass loss in the final centuries toward the explosion. It might indicate that SNe IIb from a more extended progenitor are the explosions during a strong binary interaction phase, while those from a less extended progenitor have a delay between the strong binary interaction and the explosion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Progress in modeling atmospheric propagation of sonic booms

The improved simulation of sonic boom propagation through the real atmosphere requires greater understanding of how the transient acoustic pulses popularly termed sonic booms are affected by humidity and turbulence. A realistic atmosphere is invariably somewhat turbulent, and may be characterized by an ambient fluid velocity v and sound speed c that vary from point to point. The absolute humidity will also vary from point to point, although possibly not as irregularly. What is ideally desired is a relatively simple scheme for predicting the probable spreads in key sonic boom signature parameters. Such parameters could be peak amplitudes, rise times, or gross quantities obtainable by signal processing that correlate well with annoyance or damage potential. The practical desire for the prediction scheme is that it require a relatively small amount of knowledge, possibly of a statistical nature, concerning the atmosphere along, the propagation path from the aircraft to the ground. The impact of such a scheme, if developed, implemented, and verified, would be that it would give the persons who make planning decisions a tool for assessing the magnitude of environmental problems that might result from any given overflight or sequence of overflights. The technical approach that has been followed by the author and some of his colleagues is to formulate a hierarchy of simple approximate models based on fundamental physical principles and then to test these models against existing data. For propagation of sonic booms and of other types of acoustic pulses in nonturbulent model atmospheres, there exists a basic overall theoretical model that has evolved as an outgrowth of geometrical acoustics. This theoretical model depicts the sound as propagating within ray tubes in a manner analogous to sound in a waveguide of slowly varying cross-section. Propagation along the ray tube is quasi-one-dimensional, and a wave equation for unidirectional wave propagation is used. A nonlinear term is added to this equation to account for nonlinear steepening, and the formulation has been carried through to allow for spatially varying sound speed, ambient density, and ambient wind velocities. The model intrinsically neglects diffraction, so it cannot take into account what has previously been mentioned in the literature as possibly important mechanisms for turbulence-related distortion. The model as originally developed could predict an idealized N-waveform which often agrees with data in terms of peak amplitude and overall positive phase duration. It is possible, moreover, to develop simple methods based on the physics of relaxation processes for incorporating molecular relaxation into the quasi-one-dimensional model of nonlinear propagation along ray tubes.

Pierce, Allan D.↗
DOE OSTI2013

A REVERSE SHOCK IN GRB 130427A

We present extensive radio and millimeter observations of the unusually bright GRB 130427A at z = 0.340, spanning 0.67-12 days after the burst. We combine these data with detailed multi-band UV, optical, NIR, and Swift X-ray observations and find that the broadband afterglow emission is composed of distinct reverse shock and forward shock contributions. The reverse shock emission dominates in the radio/millimeter and at ∼< 0.1 days in the UV/optical/NIR, while the forward shock emission dominates in the X-rays and at ∼> 0.1 days in the UV/optical/NIR. We further find that the optical and X-ray data require a wind circumburst environment, pointing to a massive star progenitor. Using the combined forward and reverse shock emission, we find that the parameters of the burst include an isotropic kinetic energy of E{sub K,{sub iso}} ≈ 2 × 10{sup 53} erg, a mass loss rate of M-dot ∼3×10{sup -8} M{sub ☉} yr{sup –1} (for a wind velocity of 1000 km s{sup –1}), and a Lorentz factor at the deceleration time of Γ(200 s) ≈ 130. Due to the low density and large isotropic energy, the absence of a jet break to ≈15 days places only a weak constraint on the opening angle, θ{sub j} ∼> 2.°5, and therefore a total energy of E{sub γ} + E{sub K} ∼> 1.2 × 10{sup 51} erg, similar to other gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). The reverse shock emission is detectable in this burst due to the low circumburst density, which leads to a slow cooling shock. We speculate that this property is required for the detectability of reverse shocks in radio and millimeter bands. Following on GRB 130427A as a benchmark event, observations of future GRBs with the exquisite sensitivity of the Very Large Array and ALMA, coupled with detailed modeling of the reverse and forward shock contributions, will test this hypothesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Photochemistry of Amino Acids Produced on the Polar Cryovolcanic Regions of Titan

The cryovolcanic regions of Titan offer transient opportunities for prebiotic molecules to exist in water–ammonia solutions on the surface of the Saturnian moon. The upcoming NASA’s Dragonfly mission will search for high nitrogen concentrations and amino acids on Titan’s equatorial terrains. Cryovolcanic features, however, are most common on the polar regions. To mitigate the distance, bubble bursting may encapsulate the prebiotic molecules into aerosols, which Titan’s Hadley circulation would subsequently transport to the equator. Here we investigate whether alanine and glycine survive this meridional journey. Despite the unconstrained meridional wind velocities, our results suggest that the amino acids can survive the transport through the mesosphere. Dragonfly may find cryo-volcanogenic amino acids on Titan’s equator. Further, the interaction between the two amino acids increased 10-fold the photodegradation rate of glycine. We justify it based on changes in the environment polarity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Absorption of ethanol, acetone, benzene and 1,2-dichloroethane through human skin in vitro: a test of diffusion model predictions

The overall goal of this research was to further develop and improve an existing skin diffusion model by experimentally confirming the predicted absorption rates of topically-applied volatile organic compounds (VOCs) based on their physicochemical properties, the skin surface temperature, and the wind velocity. In vitro human skin permeation of two hydrophilic solvents (acetone and ethanol) and two lipophilic solvents (benzene and 1,2-dichloroethane) was studied in Franz cells placed in a fume hood. Four doses of each {sup 14}C-radiolabed compound were tested — 5, 10, 20, and 40 μL cm{sup −2}, corresponding to specific doses ranging in mass from 5.0 to 63 mg cm{sup −2}. The maximum percentage of radiolabel absorbed into the receptor solutions for all test conditions was 0.3%. Although the absolute absorption of each solvent increased with dose, percentage absorption decreased. This decrease was consistent with the concept of a stratum corneum deposition region, which traps small amounts of solvent in the upper skin layers, decreasing the evaporation rate. The diffusion model satisfactorily described the cumulative absorption of ethanol; however, values for the other VOCs were underpredicted in a manner related to their ability to disrupt or solubilize skin lipids. In order to more closely describe the permeation data, significant increases in the stratum corneum/water partition coefficients, K{sub sc}, and modest changes to the diffusion coefficients, D{sub sc}, were required. The analysis provided strong evidence for both skin swelling and barrier disruption by VOCs, even by the minute amounts absorbed under these in vitro test conditions. - Highlights: • Human skin absorption of small doses of VOCs was measured in vitro in a fume hood. • The VOCs tested were ethanol, acetone, benzene and 1,2-dichloroethane. • Fraction of dose absorbed for all compounds at all doses tested was less than 0.3%. • The more aggressive VOCs absorbed at higher levels than diffusion model predictions. • We conclude that even small exposures to VOCs temporarily alter skin permeability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Twentieth century dust lows and the weakening of the westerly winds over the Tibetan Plateau: Dust and the Westerlies over the TP

Understanding past atmospheric dust variability is necessary to put modern atmospheric dust into historical context and assess the impacts of dust on the climate. In Asia, meteorological data of atmospheric dust is temporally limited, beginning only in the 1950s. High-resolution ice cores provide the ideal archive for reconstructing pre-instrumental atmospheric dust concentrations. Using a ~500-year (1477-1982AD) annually resolved calcium (Ca) dust proxy from a Tibetan Plateau (TP) ice core, we demonstrate the lowest atmospheric dust concentrations in the past ~500 years during the latter 20th century. Declines in late 19th-20th century Ca concentrations significantly correspond with regional zonal wind trends from two reanalysis models, suggesting that the Ca record provides a proxy for the westerlies. Twentieth century warming and attendant atmospheric pressure reductions over northern Asia have potentially reduced temperature/pressure gradients resulting in lower zonal wind velocities and associated dust entrainment/transport in the past ~500 years over the TP.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Prediction of MeV electron fluxes throughout the outer radiation belt using multivariate autoregressive models

The Van Allen radiation belts surrounding the Earth are filled with MeV-energy electrons. This region poses ionizing radiation risks for spacecraft that operate within it, including those in geostationary orbit (GEO) and medium Earth orbit. In order to provide alerts of electron flux enhancements, 16 prediction models of the electron log-flux variation throughout the equatorial outer radiation belt as a function of the McIlwain L parameter were developed using the multivariate autoregressive model and Kalman filter. Measurements of omnidirectional 2.3 MeV electron flux from the Van Allen Probes mission as well as >2 MeV electrons from the GOES 15 spacecraft were used as the predictors. Furthermore, we selected model explanatory parameters from solar wind parameters, the electron log-flux at GEO, and geomagnetic indices. For the innermost region of the outer radiation belt, the electron flux is best predicted by using the Dst index as the sole input parameter. For the central to outermost regions, at L≥4.8 and L ≥5.6, the electron flux is predicted most accurately by including also the solar wind velocity and then the dynamic pressure, respectively. The Dst index is the best overall single parameter for predicting at 3 ≤ L ≤ 6, while for the GEO flux prediction, the K P index is better than Dst. Finally, a test calculation demonstrates that the model successfully predicts the timing and location of the flux maximum as much as 2 days in advance and that the electron flux decreases faster with time at higher L values, both model features consistent with the actually observed behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Abstract All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long‐term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long‐term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large‐scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear‐sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low‐level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flexible nonstationary spatiotemporal modeling of high-frequency monitoring data

Many physical datasets are generated by collections of instruments that make measurements at regular time intervals. For such regular monitoring data, we extend the framework of half-spectral covariance functions to the case of nonstationarity in space and time and demonstrate that this method provides a natural and tractable way to incorporate complex behaviors into a covariance model. Further, we use this method with fully time-domain computations to obtain bona fide maximum likelihood estimators—as opposed to using Whittle-type likelihood approximations, for example—that can still be computed conveniently. Additionally, we apply this method to very high-frequency Doppler LIDAR vertical wind velocity measurements, demonstrating that the model can expressively capture the extreme nonstationarity of dynamics above and below the atmospheric boundary layer and, more importantly, the interaction of the process dynamics across it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) tracer transport test results for CAM‐SE

The Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) provides a set of tests and procedures designed to facilitate development and intercomparison of atmospheric dynamical cores in general circulation models (GCMs). Test category 1 examines the advective transport of passive tracers by three‐dimensional prescribed wind velocity fields, on the sphere. These tests are applied to the Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), the default for high‐resolution simulations in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Test case results are compared with results from the CAM‐FV (Finite Volume) and MCore models where possible. This analysis serves both to evaluate the performance of CAM‐SE's spectral‐element tracer transport routines as well as to provide a baseline for comparison with other atmospheric dynamical cores and f or future improvements to CAM‐SE itself.

Hall, David M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Triboelectric backgrounds to radio-based polar ultra-high energy neutrino (UHEN) experiments

Here, in the hopes of observing the highest-energy neutrinos (E EeV) populating the Universe, both past (RICE, AURA, ANITA) and current (RNO-G, ARIANNA, ARA and TAROGE-M) polar-sited experiments exploit the impulsive radio emission produced by neutrino interactions. In such experiments, rare single event candidates must be unambiguously identified above backgrounds. Background rejection strategies to date primarily target thermal noise fluctuations and also impulsive radio-frequency signals of anthropogenic origin. In this paper, we consider the possibility that ‘fake’ neutrino signals may also be generated naturally via the ‘triboelectric effect.’ This broadly describes any process in which force applied at a boundary layer results in displacement of surface charge, leading to the production of an electrostatic potential difference V. Wind blowing over granular surfaces such as snow can induce such a potential difference, with subsequent coronal discharge. Discharges over timescales as short as nanoseconds can then lead to radio-frequency emissions at characteristic MHz–GHz frequencies. Using data from various past (RICE, AURA, SATRA, ANITA) and current (RNO-G, ARIANNA and ARA) neutrino experiments, we find evidence for such backgrounds, which are generally characterized by: (a) a threshold wind velocity which likely depends on the experimental trigger criteria and layout; for the experiments considered herein, this value is typically $\mathscr{O}$(10 m/s), (b) frequency spectra generally shifted to the low-end of the frequency regime to which current radio experiments are typically sensitive (100–200 MHz), (c) for the strongest background signals, an apparent preference for discharges from above-surface structures, although the presence of more isotropic, lower amplitude triboelectric discharges cannot be excluded.

Background rejection↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature. The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impact of meteorological factors on mumps and potential effect modifiers: An analysis of 10 cities in Guangxi, Southern China

Highlights: • A total of 183,341 cases from 10 cities, daily weather data and 10 socioeconomic factors were included in the analysis. • Mean temperature and wind velocity are associated with the elevated risks of mumps incidence. • Male and adolescent aged 5–14 y are the most sensitive population to extreme weather conditions. • Several socioeconomic indicators may have a certain degree of modification on the climate-related incidence of mumps. In the current context of global climate change, understanding the impact of climate on respiratory infectious diseases such as mumps and the potential modified factors is crucial, especially in developing countries. However, research on the climate-related incidence of mumps is rare, inconsistent and mainly limited to a single city or region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Land‐Atmosphere Responses to a Total Solar Eclipse in Three Ecosystems With Contrasting Structure and Physiology

Abstract Mid‐Missouri experienced up to 2 min 40 s of totality at around solar noon during the total eclipse of 2017. We conducted the Mid‐Missouri Eclipse Meteorology Experiment to examine land‐atmosphere interactions during the eclipse. Here, research examining the eclipse responses in three contrasting ecosystems (forest, prairie, and soybeans) is described. There was variable cloudiness around first and fourth contacts (i.e., the start and end of partial solar obscuration) at the forest and prairie; however, solar irradiance ( K ↓ ) signals during the eclipse were relatively clean. Unfortunately, the eclipse forcing at the soybean field was contaminated by convective activity, which decreased K ↓ beginning about an hour before first contact and exposed the field to cold outflow ~30 min before second contact. Turbulence was suppressed during the eclipse at all sites; however, there was also an amplified signal at the soybean field during the passage of a gust front. The standard deviations of the horizontal and vertical wind velocities and friction velocities decreased by ~75% at the forest (aerodynamically rough), and ~60% at the prairie (aerodynamically smooth). The eddy fluxes of energy were highly coherent with the solar forcing with the latent and sensible heat fluxes approaching 0 W/m 2 and changing in direction, respectively. For the prairie site, we estimated a canopy‐scale time constant for the surface conductance light response of 10 min. Although the eclipse imparted large forcings on surface energy balances, the air temperature response was relatively muted (1.5–2.5 °C decrease) due to the absence of topographic effects and the relatively moist land and atmosphere.

Wood, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cold Plasmaspheric Electrons Affected by ULF Waves in the Inner Magnetosphere: A Van Allen Probes Statistical Study

Six years of Van Allen Probes data are used to investigate cold plasmaspheric electrons affected by ultralow-frequency (ULF) waves in the inner magnetosphere (L<7) including spatial distributions, occurrence conditions, and resonant energy range. Events exhibit a global distribution within L= 4–7 but preferentially occur at L~5.5–7 in the dayside, while there is higher occurrence rate in the duskside than dawnside. They can occur under different geomagnetic activities and solar wind velocities (V S ), but the occurrence rates are increasing with larger AE, |SYMH|, and V S . These features are closely associated with the generation and propagation of ULF waves in Pc4 (45–150 s) and Pc5 (150–600 s) bands. Combined with electron observations from HOPE instrument, the resonant energies inferred from wave power indicate that cold electrons at ones to hundreds of electron volts can be affected by ULF waves. Finally, this study may shed new light on further investigations on the acceleration and transportation of cold plasmaspheric particles that would affect plasmaspheric material release to the Earth's magnetosphere and instabilities for exciting various waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

FROM THE COLOR-MAGNITUDE DIAGRAM OF {omega} CENTAURI AND (SUPER-)ASYMPTOTIC GIANT BRANCH STELLAR MODELS TO A GALACTIC PLANE PASSAGE GAS PURGING CHEMICAL EVOLUTION SCENARIO

We have investigated the color-magnitude diagram of {omega} Centauri and find that the blue main sequence (bMS) can be reproduced only by models that have a helium abundance in the range Y = 0.35-0.40. To explain the faint subgiant branch of the reddest stars ('MS-a/RG-a' sequence), isochrones for the observed metallicity ([Fe/H] Almost-Equal-To -0.7) appear to require both a high age ({approx}13 Gyr) and enhanced CNO abundances ([CNO/Fe] Almost-Equal-To 0.9). Y Almost-Equal-To 0.35 must also be assumed in order to counteract the effects of high CNO on turnoff colors and thereby to obtain a good fit to the relatively blue turnoff of this stellar population. This suggests a short chemical evolution period of time (<1 Gyr) for {omega} Cen. Our intermediate-mass (super-)asymptotic giant branch (AGB) models are able to reproduce the high helium abundances, along with [N/Fe] {approx}2 and substantial O depletions if uncertainties in the treatment of convection are fully taken into account. These abundance features distinguish the bMS stars from the dominant [Fe/H] Almost-Equal-To -1.7 population. The most massive super-AGB stellar models (M{sub ZAMS} {>=} 6.8 M{sub Sun }, M{sub He,core} {>=} 1.245 M{sub Sun }) predict too large N enhancements, which limit their role in contributing to the extreme populations. In order to address the observed central concentration of stars with He-rich abundance, we show here quantitatively that highly He- and N-enriched AGB ejecta have particularly efficient cooling properties. Based on these results and on the reconstruction of the orbit of {omega} Cen with respect to the Milky Way, we propose the Galactic plane passage gas purging scenario for the chemical evolution of this cluster. The bMS population formed shortly after the purging of most of the cluster gas as a result of the passage of {omega} Cen through the Galactic disk (which occurs today every {approx}40 Myr for {omega} Cen) when the initial mass function of the dominant population had 'burned' through most of the Type II supernova mass range. AGB stars would eject most of their masses into the gas-depleted cluster through low-velocity winds that sink to the cluster core due to their favorable cooling properties and form the bMS population. In our discussion we follow our model through four passage events, which could explain some key properties not only of the bMS but also of the MS-a/RGB-a and the s-enriched stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

INTERIOR MODELS OF SATURN: INCLUDING THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SHAPE AND ROTATION

The accurate determination of Saturn's gravitational coefficients by Cassini could provide tighter constraints on Saturn's internal structure. Also, occultation measurements provide important information on the planetary shape which is often not considered in structure models. In this paper we explore how wind velocities and internal rotation affect the planetary shape and the constraints on Saturn's interior. We show that within the geodetic approach the derived physical shape is insensitive to the assumed deep rotation. Saturn's re-derived equatorial and polar radii at 100 mbar are found to be 54,445 {+-} 10 km and 60,365 {+-} 10 km, respectively. To determine Saturn's interior, we use one-dimensional three-layer hydrostatic structure models and present two approaches to include the constraints on the shape. These approaches, however, result in only small differences in Saturn's derived composition. The uncertainty in Saturn's rotation period is more significant: with Voyager's 10{sup h}39{sup m} period, the derived mass of heavy elements in the envelope is 0-7 M{sub Circled-Plus }. With a rotation period of 10{sup h}32{sup m}, this value becomes <4 M{sub Circled-Plus }, below the minimum mass inferred from spectroscopic measurements. Saturn's core mass is found to depend strongly on the pressure at which helium phase separation occurs, and is estimated to be 5-20 M{sub Circled-Plus }. Lower core masses are possible if the separation occurs deeper than 4 Mbar. We suggest that the analysis of Cassini's radio occultation measurements is crucial to test shape models and could lead to constraints on Saturn's rotation profile and departures from hydrostatic equilibrium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The possible disappearance of a massive star in the low-metallicity galaxy PHL 293B

ABSTRACT We investigate a suspected very massive star in one of the most metal-poor dwarf galaxies, PHL 293B. Excitingly, we find the sudden disappearance of the stellar signatures from our 2019 spectra, in particular the broad H lines with P Cygni profiles that have been associated with a massive luminous blue variable (LBV) star. Such features are absent from our spectra obtained in 2019 with the Echelle Spectrograph for Rocky Exoplanet- and Stable Spectroscopic Observation and X-shooter instruments of the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope. We compute radiative transfer models using cmfgen, which fit the observed spectrum of the LBV and are consistent with ground-based and archival Hubble Space Telescope photometry. Our models show that during 2001–2011, the LBV had a luminosity L* = 2.5–3.5 × 106 L⊙, a mass-loss rate $\dot{M} = 0.005{-}0.020 ~{\rm M}_{\odot }$ yr−1, a wind velocity of 1000 km s−1, and effective and stellar temperatures of Teff = 6000–6800 and T* = 9500–15 000 K. These stellar properties indicate an eruptive state. We consider two main hypotheses for the absence of the broad emission components from the spectra obtained since 2011. One possibility is that we are seeing the end of an LBV eruption of a surviving star, with a mild drop in luminosity, a shift to hotter effective temperatures, and some dust obscuration. Alternatively, the LBV could have collapsed to a massive black hole without the production of a bright supernova.

Allan, Andrew P.↗