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NASA NTRS2012

Size Resolved Measurements of Springtime Aerosol Particles over the Northern South China Sea

Large sources of aerosol particles and their precursors are ubiquitous in East Asia. Such sources are known to impact the South China Sea (henceforth SCS), a sometimes heavily polluted region that has been suggested as particularly vulnerable to climate change. To help elucidate springtime aerosol transport into the SCS, an intensive study was performed on the remote Dongsha (aka Pratas) Islands Atoll in spring 2010. As part of this deployment, a Davis Rotating-drum Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM) cascade impactor was deployed to collect size-resolved aerosol samples at the surface that were analyzed by X-ray fluorescence for concentrations of selected elements. HYSPLIT backtrajectories indicated that the transport of aerosol observed at the surface at Dongsha was occurring primarily from regions generally to the north and east. This observation was consistent with the apparent persistence of pollution and dust aerosol, along with sea salt, in the ground-based dataset. In contrast to the sea-level observations, modeled aerosol transport suggested that the westerly flow aloft (w700 hPa) transported smoke-laden air toward the site from regions from the south and west. Measured aerosol optical depth at the site was highest during time periods of modeled heavy smoke loadings aloft. These periods did not coincide with elevated aerosol concentrations at the surface, although the model suggested sporadic mixing of this free-tropospheric aerosol to the surface over the SCS. A biomass burning signature was not clearly identified in the surface aerosol composition data, consistent with this aerosol type remaining primarily aloft and not mixing strongly to the surface during the study. Significant vertical wind shear in the region also supports the idea that different source regions lead to varying aerosol impacts in different vertical layers, and suggests the potential for considerable vertical inhomogeneity in the SCS aerosol environment.

South China Sea↗

NASA NTRS2014

Single-event Effect Report for EPC Series eGaN FETs: Proton Testing for SEE and TNID Effects

Previous testing of the Enhanced Power Conversion (EPC) eGaN FETs showed sensitivity to destructive single-event effects (SEE) effects to heavy ions. The presence of tungsten plugs in the gate area raises concerns that the device may be vulnerable to SEE from protons. Irradiation of biased and unbiased devices with heavy ion has results in some damage suspected of being due to total non-ionizing dose (TNID). Proton irradiation is a better radiation type to study this effect. This study presents the results of testing device with protons for SEE and TNID. No SEE in the EPC2012 device, the most sensitive device to SEE, were seen with 53 MeV protons at several angles. The devices continued to function after 1.5 Mrad (Si) of proton dose with only a slight shift in parameters. These results suggest that gross TNID will not be a factor in using these devices nor suffer from SEE due to protons. However, the device should be tested at with 500 MeV protons to guarantee to immunity proton SEE.

Scheick, Leif↗

NASA NTRS2013

IT Security Support for the Spaceport Command Control Systems Development Ground Support Development Operations

Security is one of the most if not the most important areas today. After the several attacks on the United States, security everywhere was heightened from Airports to the communication among the military branches legionnaires. With advanced persistent threats (APTs) on the rise following Stuxnet, government branches and agencies are required, more than ever, to follow several standards, policies and procedures to reduce the likelihood of a breach. Attack vectors today are very advanced and are going to continue to get more and more advanced as security controls advance. This creates a need for networks and systems to be in an updated and secured state in a launch control system environment. FISMA is a law that is mandated by the government to follow when government agencies secure networks and devices. My role on this project is to ensure network devices and systems are in compliance with NIST, as outlined in FISMA. I will achieve this by providing assistance with security plan documentation and collection, system hardware and software inventory, malicious code and malware scanning and configuration of network devices i.e. routers and IDSsIPSs. In addition I will be completing security assessments on software and hardware, vulnerability assessments and reporting, conducting patch management and risk assessments. A guideline that will help with compliance with NIST is the SANS Top 20 Critical Controls. SANS Top 20 Critical Controls as well as numerous security tools, security software and the conduction of research will be used to successfully complete the tasks given to me. This will ensure compliance with FISMA and NIST, secure systems and a secured network. By the end of this project, I hope to have carried out stated above as well as gain an immense knowledge about compliance, security tools, networks and network devices, policies and procedures.

computer information security↗

NASA NTRS2014

Spacecraft Charging Analysis of a CubeSat

Spacecraft charging occurs when charged particles from the surrounding space plasma environment contact a spacecraft and unequal charging currents result in a net charge density accumulation on or in spacecraft materials. Charging becomes a threat when differential potentials between two points on the spacecraft or between the spacecraft and the ambient space environment build to the level that electric fields associated with the potentials exceed the electric breakdown strength of the spacecraft materials and electrostatic discharge arcs are generated. Electrostatic discharges resulting from spacecraft charging can adversely affect telemetry and cause irreparable damage to electronics. Other spacecraft charging effects include damage of solar arrays and thermal protection, enhancement of contamination of surfaces, and degradation of optics. Typically, the large government and commercial space programs include spacecraft charging analysis as part of the design process. CubeSat projects, however, usually do not have the time or funding to include a spacecraft charging analysis due to their low budget and quick-turnaround requirements. CubeSat projects also tend to rely heavily on commercial "off-the-shelf" products, many of which are not qualified for use in space, and are particularly vulnerable to the effects of the space environment. As the demand for longer and more complex CubeSat missions increases, it is becoming more and more important to consider the effects of spacecraft charging in the design process. Results of surface charging analysis using Nascap-2k on a typical CubeSat design for a polar orbit scenario are illustrated. These results show that for a polar orbiting CubeSat, spacecraft charging could be an issue and steps should be taken to mitigate the effects for these small satellites.

Willis, Emily M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Influence of Cultural, Organizational, and Automation Capability on Human Automation Trust: A Case Study of Auto-GCAS Experimental Test Pilots

This paper discusses a case study that examined the influence of cultural, organizational and automation capability upon human trust in, and reliance on, automation. In particular, this paper focuses on the design and application of an extended case study methodology, and on the foundational lessons revealed by it. Experimental test pilots involved in the research and development of the US Air Force's newly developed Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System served as the context for this examination. An eclectic, multi-pronged approach was designed to conduct this case study, and proved effective in addressing the challenges associated with the case's politically sensitive and military environment. Key results indicate that the system design was in alignment with pilot culture and organizational mission, indicating the potential for appropriate trust development in operational pilots. These include the low-vulnerability/ high risk nature of the pilot profession, automation transparency and suspicion, system reputation, and the setup of and communications among organizations involved in the system development.

trust↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.

Prices↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.

ecosystems↗

NASA NTRS2014

Colombia Mi Pronostico Flood Application: Updating and Improving the Mi Pronostico Flood Web Application to Include an Assessment of Flood Risk

Colombia is a country with highly variable terrain, from the Andes Mountains to plains and coastal areas, many of these areas are prone to flooding disasters. To identify these risk areas NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) was used to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) for the study region. The preliminary risk assessment was applied to a pilot study area, the La Mosca River basin. Precipitation data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s near-real-time rainfall products as well as precipitation data from the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, IDEAM) and stations in the La Mosca River Basin were used to create rainfall distribution maps for the region. Using the precipitation data and the ASTER DEM, the web application, Mi Pronóstico, run by IDEAM, was updated to include an interactive map which currently allows users to search for a location and view the vulnerability and current weather and flooding conditions. The geospatial information was linked to an early warning system in Mi Pronóstico that can alert the public of flood warnings and identify locations of nearby shelters.

Rushley, Stephanie↗

NASA NTRS2014

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

policies↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Multiple Parameters Biodosimetry Tool with Various Blood Cell Counts - the Hemodose Approach

There continue to be important concerns about the possibility of the occurrence of acute radiation syndromes following nuclear and radiological terrorism or accidents that may result in mass casualties in densely populated areas. To guide medical personnel in their clinical decisions for effective medical management and treatment of the exposed individuals, biological markers are usually applied to examine radiation induced biological changes to assess the severity of radiation injury to sensitive organ systems. Among these the peripheral blood cell counts are widely used to assess the extent of radiation induced bone marrow injury. This is due to the fact that the hematopoietic system is the most vulnerable part of the human body to radiation damage. Particularly, the lymphocyte, granulocyte, and platelet cells are the most radiosensitive of the blood elements, and monitoring their changes after exposure is regarded as a practical and recommended laboratory test to estimate radiation dose and injury. Based upon years of physiological and pathophysiological investigation of mammalian hematopoietic systems, and rigorous coarse-grained bio-mathematical modeling and validation on species from mouse, to dog, monkey, and human, we have developed a set of software tools Hemodose, which can use single or serial granulocyte, lymphocyte, leukocyte, or platelet counts after exposure to estimate absorbed doses of adult victims very rapidly and accurately. Some patient data from historical accidents are utilized as examples to demonstrate the capabilities of these tools as a rapid point-of-care diagnostic or centralized high-throughput assay system in a large-scale radiological disaster scenario. Most significant to the improvement of national and local preparedness of a potential nuclear/radiological disaster, this HemoDose approach establishes robust correlations between the absorbed doses and victim's various types of blood cell counts not only in the early time window (1 or 2 days), but also in the very late phase (up to 4 weeks) after exposure.

Hu, Shaowen↗

NASA NTRS2014

Hurricane Sandy and Adaptation Pathways in New York: Lessons from a First-Responder City

Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city - the City of New York - have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a ''tipping point'' leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists.

adaptation pathways↗

NASA NTRS2014

IT Security Support for the Spaceport Command Control System Development

My job title is IT Security support for the Spaceport Command & Control System Development. As a cyber‐security analyst it is my job to ensure NASA's information stays safe from cyber threats, such as, viruses, malware and denial-of-service attacks by establishing and enforcing system access controls. Security is very important in the world of technology and it is used everywhere from personal computers to giant networks ran by Government agencies worldwide. Without constant monitoring analysis, businesses, public organizations and government agencies are vulnerable to potential harmful infiltration of their computer information system. It is my responsibility to ensure authorized access by examining improper access, reporting violations, revoke access, monitor information request by new programming and recommend improvements. My department oversees the Launch Control System and networks. An audit will be conducted for the LCS based on compliance with the Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA) and The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). I recently finished analyzing the SANS top 20 critical controls to give cost effective recommendations on various software and hardware products for compliance. Upon my completion of this internship, I will have successfully completed my duties as well as gain knowledge that will be helpful to my career in the future as a Cyber Security Analyst.

IT Security↗

NASA NTRS2014

Single-Event Effect Performance of a Commercial ReRAM

We show heavy ion test results of a commercial production-level ReRAM. The memory array is robust to bit upsets. However the ReRAM system is vulnerable to SEFI.

ReRAM↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of Case Size 0603 BME Ceramic Capacitors

High volumetric efficiency of commercial base metal electrode (BME) ceramic capacitors allows for a substantial reduction of weight and sizes of the parts compared to currently used military grade precious metal electrode (PME) capacitors. Insertion of BME capacitors in space applications requires a thorough analysis of their performance and reliability. In this work, six types of cases size 0603 BME capacitors from three vendors have been evaluated. Three types of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) were designed for automotive industry and three types for general purposes. Leakage currents in the capacitors have been measured in a wide range of voltages and temperatures, and measurements of breakdown voltages (VBR) have been used to assess the proportion and severity of defects in the parts. The effect of soldering-related thermal shock stresses was evaluated by analysis of distributions of VBR for parts in 'as is' condition and after terminal solder dip testing at 350 C. Highly Accelerated Life Testing (HALT) at different temperatures was used to assess the activation energy of degradation of leakage currents and predict behavior of the parts at life test and normal operating conditions. To address issues related to rework and manual soldering, capacitors were soldered onto different substrates at different soldering conditions. The results show that contrary to a common assumption that large-size capacitors are mostly vulnerable to soldering stresses, cracking in small size capacitors does happen unless special measures are taken during assembly processes.

testing↗

NASA NTRS2015

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Challenge of Grounding Planning in Simulation with an Interactive Model Development Environment

A principal obstacle to fielding automated planning systems is the difficulty of modeling. Physical systems are modeled conventionally based on specification documents and the modeler's understanding of the system. Thus, the model is developed in a way that is disconnected from the system's actual behavior and is vulnerable to manual error. Another obstacle to fielding planners is testing and validation. For a space mission, generated plans must be validated often by translating them into command sequences that are run in a simulation testbed. Testing in this way is complex and onerous because of the large number of possible plans and states of the spacecraft. Though, if used as a source of domain knowledge, the simulator can ease validation. This paper poses a challenge: to ground planning models in the system physics represented by simulation. A proposed, interactive model development environment illustrates the integration of planning and simulation to meet the challenge. This integration reveals research paths for automated model construction and validation.

radio occultation↗