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SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio spectra of M67 stars reveals atomic diffusion processes on the order of 0.05 dex, previously only measurable with differential analysis techniques in high-resolution spectra. sick is easy to use, well-tested, and freely available online through GitHub under the MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Innovative Patient Room Lighting System with Integrated Spectrally Adaptive Control

In December of 2013, the U.S. Department of Energy’s SSL R&D Program released a Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA), that for the first time, contained opportunities for comprehensive application-specific system development. The FOA included opportunities for two applications, one of which was a Patient Room. Philips Lighting Research North America, submitted a proposal for the Patient Room application, and was selected for the complete project award. The award amount was for $497,127, with a Philips Research co-funding commitment 165,709 dollars. The total project value was 662,836 dollars. This project sought to redefine lighting for the patient room application. The goal was to deliver an innovative LED patient suite (patient room and bathroom) lighting system solution that was 40% more energy-efficient than traditional fluorescent incumbent technologies, and would meet all the visual and non-visual needs of patients, caregivers and visitors, and improve the patient experience. State-of-the-art multichannel LED platforms and control technologies that would provide spectral tuning and become part of an intelligent, connected lighting system drove the solution. The project was scoped into four main task areas that included a) System Concept Creation, b) Identification of the Luminaire Portfolio, c) Development of the Connected Lighting Infrastructure, and d) System Performance Validation. Each of the four main tasks were completed and validated extensively over the course the 2 ½ year project. The system concept was created by first developing a lighting design that demonstrated best practices for patient room lighting – illuminance and uniformity for task performance, reduced glare, and convenient controls, in addition to giving patients control over the lighting in their environment. A framework was defined to deliver circadian support via software behaviors. Through that process luminaires were identified from the Philips portfolio that were adaptable – by their form, dimensions, and optical materials – to mix multicolor LED platforms uniformly and deliver target design lumen levels. The Blue Sky luminaire was selected for the patient bed area to give the illusion of skylight while providing white light on the patient bed. Luminaires used existing 2-channel tunable white LED boards, and newly developed 4-channel LED boards. Red-Orange, Blue, Green, and Blue-shifted Yellow LED chips were selected based on spectral characteristics and their ability to produce high quality white light. 4-channel Power over Ethernet (PoE) drivers were developed and firmware written so they would communicate with both 2- and 4-channel boards. These components formed the backbone of the connected lighting infrastructure. Software, flexible and nuanced in its complexity, was written to set behaviors for myriad lighting scenes in the room throughout the 24 hour day – and all could be overridden by manual controls. This included a dynamic tunable white program, three color changing automatic programs that simulated degrees of sunrise to sunset palettes, and an amber night lighting system that offered visual cues for postural stability to minimize the risk of falls. All programs were carefully designed to provide visual comfort for all occupants, support critical task performance for staff, and to support the patient’s 24hr rhythms. A full scale mockup room was constructed in the Philips Cambridge Lab. The lighting system was installed, tested and functionality demonstrated to ensure smooth operation of system components – luminaires, drivers, PoE switches, wall controls, patient remote, and daylight and occupancy sensors. How did the system perform? It met visual criteria, confirmed by calculations, simulations and measurements in the field. It met non-visual criteria, confirmed by setting circadian stimulus (CS) targets and performing calculations using the calculator developed by the Lighting Research Center. Finally, human factors validation studies were conducted to gain insight from real end users in the healthcare profession; surveys were administered, data analyzed, and audio comments captured. The general consensus was positive, with requests to pilot the system in their hospitals. The importance of the research completed under this grant is that it allowed the exploration and development of a unique lighting system, one that would deliver a blend of visual and non-visual criteria in patient room design for today’s healthcare environment. The research investigated the area of multichannel LED technology, multichannel Power over Ethernet (PoE) drivers and their integration with automatic and manual controls as a system – uncovering and meeting challenges along the way. It married visual needs of patients and staff with support for 24 hour rhythms, placing value on the wellbeing of the patient – while successfully saving energy over incumbent technologies. Indications are that the market is ready and willing to invest – multiple healthcare facilities are in line to pilot this system, recognizing its value beyond energy to patient and staff well-being. Its value to the public can best be expressed by a patient support coordinator who, after spending several hours in the room being immersed in the lighting, analyzing all its features, commented: “This re-writes lighting for healthcare”.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An investigation of hard-disk drive circularity accounting for socio-technical dynamics and data uncertainty

The installed data storage capacity in the U.S. will reach 2.2 Zettabytes by 2025, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life (EOL) hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. Due to data security concerns, most EOL HDDs are currently shredded (even when still functioning), representing an economic loss. Moreover, raw material extraction linked to the increased demand for storage causes environmental impacts. Besides mitigating the threat posed by sudden restrictions of raw materials, the circular economy (CE) offers to maximize value retention in the economy and reduce the environmental impacts of human activities. Common CE strategies are reusing and recycling products. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is currently burdened by the lack of trust HDD end-users have toward other non-physical means of data removal than shredding. Here, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to explore how techno-economic and social factors affect end-users' decisions to adopt EOL management practices other than shredding. The proposed method also accounts for data uncertainty by applying a semi-quantitative approach. Results demonstrate how increased green procurement and more robust standards could spur end-users' trust toward data-wiping technologies. Even when accounting for uncertainty, HDDs' reuse brings better environmental and economic benefits than HDD shredding followed by material recovery. The semi-quantitative approach proposed in this study could be more universally applied in future ABM, especially given the often-stochastic nature of such models. The developed ABM is also the first to represent several HDD industry stakeholders and demonstrate how the HDD shredding lock-in situation could be resolved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrating diagnostics and model-based optimization

Energy Management and Information Systems are a family of analytics technologies that include energy information systems, fault detection and diagnostics (FDD), and automated system optimization tools. Such systems have the potential to enable buildings to meet energy management goals of reducing total energy consumption and cost. Most current market offerings use data-driven and rule-based analytics. However, the use of physics-based models in the analytics offers potential improvements by providing an accurate estimation of outputs based on representation of the physical principles governing the building system behaviors. This also permits the use of design stage models to inform commissioning and operation. This paper describes the development and testing of a hybrid data-driven and physics model-based operational tool for energy efficiency in central cooling plants. The tool offers FDD functionality, setpoint optimization, and visualization of key performance parameters. It was demonstrated at a university campus in the mixed-humid ASHRAE Climate Zone 4A. Key performance metrics that were analyzed include plant electricity use reduction, plant model calibration, and system economics. Annual simulations indicate the tool can provide electricity savings of greater than 10% for approximately six months of the year, mainly during the winter season when wet bulb temperatures are low, though only 1.38% savings for the entire year. Additionally, over a 4-day period in April, recommended optimal setpoints were implemented, resulting in 17% savings versus metered baseline consumption. With respect to model calibration, the difference between model-predicted and measured parameters was less than 10% for 90% of data points acquired for three of six chillers, and for each ten cooling towers. Finally, the tool users reported that satisfaction with the capabilities was equal to or better than that with the preexisting BAS system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling the direct sun component in buildings using matrix algebraic approaches: Methods and validation

Simulation tools that enable annual energy performance analysis of optically-complex fenestration systems have been widely adopted by the building industry for use in building design, code development, and the development of rating and certification programs for commercially-available shading and daylighting products. The tools rely on a three-phase matrix operation to compute solar heat gains, using as input low-resolution bidirectional scattering distribution function (BSDF) data (10–15° angular resolution; BSDF data define the angle-dependent behavior of light-scattering materials and systems). Measurement standards and product libraries for BSDF data are undergoing development to support solar heat gain calculations. Simulation of other metrics such as discomfort glare, annual solar exposure, and potentially thermal discomfort, however, require algorithms and BSDF input data that more accurately model the spatial distribution of transmitted and reflected irradiance or illuminance from the sun (0.5° resolution). This study describes such algorithms and input data, then validates the tools (i.e., an interpolation tool for measured BSDF data and the five-phase method) through comparisons with ray-tracing simulations and field monitored data from a full-scale testbed. Simulations of daylight-redirecting films, a micro-louvered screen, and venetian blinds using variable resolution, tensor tree BSDF input data derived from interpolated scanning goniophotometer measurements were shown to agree with field monitored data to within 20% for greater than 75% of the measurement period for illuminance-based performance parameters. The three-phase method delivered significantly less accurate results. We discuss the ramifications of these findings on industry and provide recommendations to increase end user awareness of the current limitations of existing software tools and BSDF product libraries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Hybrid Multiscale Framework for Subsurface Flow and Transport Simulations

Extensive research efforts have been invested in reducing model errors to improve the predictive ability of biogeochemical earth and environmental system simulators, with applications ranging from contaminant transport and remediation to impacts of biogeochemical elemental cycling (e.g., carbon and nitrogen) on local ecosystems and regional to global climate. While the bulk of this research has focused on improving model parameterizations in the face of observational limitations, the more challenging type of model error/uncertainty to identify and quantify is model structural error which arises from incorrect mathematical representations of (or failure to consider) important physical, chemical, or biological processes, properties, or system states in model formulations. While improved process understanding can be achieved through scientific study, such understanding is usually developed at small scales. Process-based numerical models are typically designed for a particular characteristic length and time scale. For application-relevant scales, it is generally necessary to introduce approximations and empirical parameterizations to describe complex systems or processes. This single-scale approach has been the best available to date because of limited understanding of process coupling combined with practical limitations on system characterization and computation. While computational power is increasing significantly and our understanding of biological and environmental processes at fundamental scales is accelerating, using this information to advance our knowledge of the larger system behavior requires the development of multiscale simulators. Accordingly there has been much recent interest in novel multiscale methods in which microscale and macroscale models are explicitly coupled in a single hybrid multiscale simulation. A limited number of hybrid multiscale simulations have been developed for biogeochemical earth systems, but they mostly utilize application-specific and sometimes ad-hoc approaches for model coupling. We are developing a generalized approach to hierarchical model coupling designed for high-performance computational systems, based on the Swift computing workflow framework. In this presentation we will describe the generalized approach and provide two use cases: 1) simulation of a mixing-controlled biogeochemical reaction coupling pore- and continuum-scale models, and 2) simulation of biogeochemical impacts of groundwater – river water interactions coupling fine- and coarse-grid model representations. This generalized framework can be customized for use with any pair of linked models (microscale and macroscale) with minimal intrusiveness to the at-scale simulators. It combines a set of python scripts with the Swift workflow environment to execute a complex multiscale simulation utilizing an approach similar to the well-known Heterogeneous Multiscale Method. User customization is facilitated through user-provided input and output file templates and processing function scripts, and execution within a high-performance computing environment is handled by Swift, such that minimal to no user modification of at-scale codes is required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Materials design of perovskite solid solutions for thermochemical applications

Perovskites are excellent candidate materials as oxygen carriers in thermochemical processes. Due to their versatile composition, it is possible to fine-tune the perovskite's properties. Here, we present a method for the rational design of AMO 3– δ perovskite solid solutions with two different species on the Msite in order to tune their redox behavior. To account for the different ionic radii of different transition metal species M, two distinct ions are used in a solid solution on the A site, allowing tolerance-factor adjusted materials design. Using this methodology, we can create stable perovskites over a large range of different compositions. Leveraging the infrastructure of Materials Project, we calculate redox enthalpies for the reduction of over 240 of these $(\text {A}^{\prime}_x\text {A}^{\prime\prime}_{1-x})(\text {M}^{\prime}_y\text {M}^{\prime\prime}_{1-y})$O 3 perovskites to their brownmillerite phases based on density functional theory (DFT). We compare this data to experimentally measured data on thermodynamics of 24 of these materials to verify our theoretical framework. An empirical model is formulated for predicting the enthalpy and entropy changes as a function of the perovskites non-stoichiometry δ , which can be used to simulate the equilibrium composition as a function of temperature and oxygen partial pressure and to create a perovskite search engine based on an energetic analysis of the redox cycles. The data has been added as a contribution to MPContribs, which now includes publicly available user-controlled interactive graphs based on our theoretical and experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Monte Carlo Techniques for Nuclear Systems - Theory Lectures

These are lecture notes for a Monte Carlo class given at the University of New Mexico. The following topics are covered: course information; nuclear eng. review & MC; random numbers and sampling; computational geometry; collision physics; tallies and statistics; eigenvalue calculations I; eigenvalue calculations II; eigenvalue calculations III; variance reduction; parallel Monte Carlo; parameter studies; fission matrix and higher eigenmodes; doppler broadening; Monte Carlo depletion; HTGR modeling; coupled MC and T/H calculations; fission energy deposition. Solving particle transport problems with the Monte Carlo method is simple - just simulate the particle behavior. The devil is in the details, however. These lectures provide a balanced approach to the theory and practice of Monte Carlo simulation codes. The first lectures provide an overview of Monte Carlo simulation methods, covering the transport equation, random sampling, computational geometry, collision physics, and statistics. The next lectures focus on the state-of-the-art in Monte Carlo criticality simulations, covering the theory of eigenvalue calculations, convergence analysis, dominance ratio calculations, bias in Keff and tallies, bias in uncertainties, a case study of a realistic calculation, and Wielandt acceleration techniques. The remaining lectures cover advanced topics, including HTGR modeling and stochastic geometry, temperature dependence, fission energy deposition, depletion calculations, parallel calculations, and parameter studies. This portion of the class focuses on using MCNP to perform criticality calculations for reactor physics and criticality safety applications. It is an intermediate level class, intended for those with at least some familiarity with MCNP. Class examples provide hands-on experience at running the code, plotting both geometry and results, and understanding the code output. The class includes lectures & hands-on computer use for a variety of Monte Carlo calculations. Beginning MCNP users are encouraged to review LA-UR-09-00380, "Criticality Calculations with MCNP: A Primer (3nd Edition)" (available at http:// mcnp.lanl.gov under "Reference Collection") prior to the class. No Monte Carlo class can be complete without having students write their own simple Monte Carlo routines for basic random sampling, use of the random number generator, and simplified particle transport simulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The Corrected Distortion model for Lagrangian spray simulation of transcritical fuel injection

In this work, we present a detailed implementation and validation of the droplet modeling framework proposed by Dahms and Oefelein (2016) into the engine commercial CFD software CONVERGE using the User Defined Function (UDF) interface. The model accounts for the nonlinear deformation and oscillation experienced by liquid spray droplet injected into high pressure and temperature. Lagrangian spray simulations of Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray A are performed. Model validation against standard experimental measurements of liquid velocity, vapor mixture fraction is conducted. To perform more rigorous model validation, new experimental measurements based on Diffused Back Illumination (DBI) are introduced. The new measurements are processed for Projected Liquid Volume (PLV), which offers as close as possible one-to-one model validation for liquid penetration while offering new insights into the spray physics. Comparison with a One-D model based on adiabatic mixing theory by Siebers (1999) and Desantes et al. (2007) are also conducted. Through these model validation exercises, it is shown that the new framework improves liquid-phase penetration predictions, following a tendency for enhanced evaporation, compared to the standard approach for both Reynolds Average Navier Stokes (RANS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES). Additionally, at the liquid length, maximum mixture fraction values predicted by the new approach are in good agreement those of an adiabatic mixing model. Qualitative analysis of the spray behaviors during the early stage of the injection process reveals that the proposed framework predicts significant increase in droplet evaporation rate with lower drop drag compared to the current standard approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Incorporating the Min-Max Mesh Optimization Method within the Target-Matrix Paradigm

The Target-Matrix Optimization Paradigm (TMOP) is a method for improving mesh quality via node movement. Through the use of appropriate pre-defined quality metrics and Target-matrices, TMOP provides the ability to define mesh quality in terms of element shape, volume, and edge orientation as a function of position within the mesh, thus facilitating high-level goals such as size-adapted meshing. The Paradigm is developed further in this paper by showing how it can be applied to the problem of improving the mesh in locations where the quality is the worst. Improving the worst quality portions of a mesh was investigated by Freitag, Amenta, and others, who showed that the problem can be formulated as a min-max optimization problem. The Target-paradigm is used to extend the previous work in two important respects. First, by using quality metrics from the Target-paradigm, quality can be user-specified via Target-matrices instead of the quality definition being hard-wired into the quality metric. Second, by making use of the sample point concept in TMOP, one can extend min-max mesh optimization to non-simplicial element types such as quadrilaterals. Numerical experiments were performed to illustrate these extensions and to investigate their utility. A non-gradient solver known as the amoeba was used to numerically compute the optimal solutions. This derivative-free method, in conjunction with the use of barrier metrics from TMOP, enables the solution of the min-max problem without the use of explicit constraints to guarantee that the optimal mesh is non-inverted. The experiments showed that the use of Target-metrics in min-max with triangle (or tetrahedral) element meshes is able to effectively improve the worst quality elements in terms of shape or in terms of size+shape. The experiments also showed that the mesh min-max extension to quadrilateral element meshes can lead to acceptable meshes using barrier metrics from the Target-paradigm, provided that inter-element mesh smoothness is not important. Poor behavior was observed when using non-barrier Target-metrics in min-max with quadrilateral element meshes. For both simplicial and quadrilateral meshes, the min-sum method can be competitive with min-max, however.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Salt Hydrate Eutectic Thermal Energy Storage for Building Thermal Regulation (Final Technical Report)

Thermal energy storage is anticipated to play an important role in developing the power grid of the future - a power grid that meets increasing demands of users, is resistant to disruptions, but also allows for greater penetration of renewable resources. Specifically, thermal energy storage materials can be integrated into HVAC systems and building envelopes, where they can be used to shift power demands for building climate control from periods of peak demand to periods of low demand. Phase change materials (PCMs) are compelling as low-cost, high energy density thermal energy storage materials for building thermal management. However, there is a lack of high performance low-cost PCMs within the specific temperature ranges which would most effectively allow for power load shifting. Inorganic salt hydrates represent a promising class of PCMs, but their inherent limitations cause them to be currently unavailable for reliable building applications. The overarching goals of this research effort are to: 1) Discover low-cost, high volumetric density salt hydrate eutectic PCMs to store low-quality heat (10 to 40 °C); 2) Introduce a high thermal conductivity matrix to reduce the time constant for energy storage to ~0.1 to 1 hr, incorporate nucleation catalysts to decrease undercooling, and utilize microencapsulation and shape stabilization approaches, minimizing moisture loss/gain, mitigating phase separation, and maintaining stable melting behavior over the lifetime of the compounds; 3) Evaluate the impact these systems have on peak load shifting, and the potential for overall energy savings under different climatic scenarios and building configurations. These goals will be achieved by an integrated research program consisting of six cohesive research subtasks: 1) Materials discovery of eutectic salt hydrate PCMs by using computationally predicted thermodynamic equilibria, coupled with high-throughput experimental validation, 2) Rapid experimental screening of nucleation catalysts identified through robust computational databases, 3) Embedding salt hydrate PCM into a low cost and scalable high conductivity matrix, 4) Microencapsulation of salt hydrate microspheres using hybrid inorganic-polymer microencapsulation approach, 5) Shape stabilization by thermoreversible salt hydrate salogels, and 6) Analysis of end-use using thermal simulations, and characterization of mock-up energy storage finished components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Exploration and Analysis of Legacy Data at the Hanford Site Using PHOENIX - 19044

Radioactive contaminants pose risks to human health and the environment. These risks are influenced by factors such as disposal/release and transport mechanisms, location in the environment, potential exposure receptors, and the presence of comingled contaminants. Understanding the behavior, transport, and distribution of radionuclides in the environment is essential to facilitating risk-informed decision-making related to remedial design, action, and monitoring. These decisions are based on significant amounts of complex data that must be accessed, integrated, and analyzed to effectively evaluate data and formulate appropriate conclusions and recommendations. Often, data volume, complexity, and legacy access issues pose severe challenges for analysts, regulators, and stakeholders interested in evaluating scientific data to support decision-making. To address these challenges at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed PHOENIX (PNNL-Hanford Online Environmental Information exchange) to facilitate risk-informed decision-making by streamlining investigative and analytical processes through the integration and visualization of previously isolated datasets created under distinct regulatory or operational regimes, each serving a specific purpose. With the large volume of data dispersed across many Hanford environmental databases, finding the correct sources of relevant data, accessing them, and relating them in a meaningful way can prove challenging and time consuming. By analyzing Hanford databases, performing substantial optimization using modern data processing methods and developing extensive queries on the refactored data, PHOENIX enables users to access, integrate, display, visualize, and retrieve data that would have been historically unfeasible to examine. The data and information accessible through PHOENIX help inform remediation-related assessments and evaluations, predict and quantify the risks that radioactive and chemical contaminants pose to human health and the environment, and communicate this information to decision makers responsible for risk-based remediation actions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Review of Authentication Strategies and Trends for Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)

In this study we review literature on machine to machine (M2M) authentication and encryption pertaining to communication with grid-attached power inverters. We regard security recommendations from NIST, constrained device recommendations from CoAP, as well as influences from the existing markets. We will not focus on passwordless or multifactor schemes of user authentication, the handover/roaming authentication of mobile systems, or the group authentication of WiMAX/LTE communications. The de-facto standards for authentication and encryption are certificate-based public key cryptography and AES, respectively. While certificate-based public key cryptography is widely adopted, certificate management is seen as an Achilles heel of public key infrastructure (PKI). State of the art authentication system research includes work on certificateless authentication; however, much work in the areas of privacy preservation, efficient or lightweight systems continue to be based in public key methods. We will see efforts such as bilinear pairing, aggregate message authentication codes, one-time signatures, and Merkle trees surface and resurface with improved authentication approaches. Though research continues to produce new encryption schemes, AES prevails as a viable choice, as it can be implemented across a variety of resource constrained devices. Other lightweight encryption algorithms often employ the same fundamental addition-rotation-xor operations as AES while achieving higher efficiency, but at steep tradeoffs to security. Despite mathematical proofs of the security of cryptographic algorithms, in practice the greatest weaknesses continue to be incurred during implementation. Security researchers will find edge cases and bugs that allow unintentional behavior. In the following sections, accepted methodologies of authentication and encryption are discussed. Due diligence for securing M2M communications requires consideration during planning, design, implementation and product lifetime, as opposed to a set-it and forget-it policy. Best practices can be gleaned from published successes and failures, with no single end-all, be-all detailed solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Graded approach for assessing digital system failure susceptibilities - 305

Owner/operators of nuclear plants must be able to identify and assess susceptibilities to digital system failures and unintended behaviors that could lead to plant system malfunctions, including common-cause failures (CCFs) of multiple controlled components that may impact overall plant safety. Nuclear plant designers and regulators often assess and manage potential failure modes by assuming the failure occurs and showing by analysis that the results are acceptable. In 2016 EPRI published a guideline on Methods for Assuring Safety and Dependability when Applying Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems (EPRI 3002005326), which takes a more holistic approach that considers digital system failure modes from the perspective of their impact on plant risk and includes a graded approach based on safety significance. This paper describes that graded approach. The methodology in EPRI 3002005326 systematically identifies potential I and C vulnerabilities that could lead to significant malfunctions of controlled components and systems, including common-cause failures (CCF), and discusses in detail methods to protect against them. It considers both preventive measures that reduce the likelihood of failures, and plant systems and features that mitigate the effects of component failures and misbehaviors. Coping analysis is then performed as appropriate to provide additional assurance of protection. The safety significance based graded approach is an important feature in that it can help users focus attention on overall plant safety, including potentially risk-significant scenarios that might not be considered in traditional safety analyses. The purpose is to help the user ensure that modifications to the I and C that could potentially be safety significant are treated appropriately and at the same time not waste valuable resources on excessive protection against changes that have little or no impact on safety. The graded approach allows the design engineer to tailor the rigor of the preventive, limiting, and mitigative measures commensurately with the effects the I and C modification has on overall plant safety. The graded approach focuses on safety significance impact, which is effectively a qualitative measure of the potential change in safety (or risk) caused by a proposed I and C modification, as compared to the I and C that is being replaced. Safety significance impact should not be confused with importance to safety or risk significance. It is possible that an upgrade to safety-related and/or risk-significant I and C systems may have little or no safety significant impact and vice versa. The approach considers three factors that influence the impact on safety significance of a proposed I and C modification: context, likelihood of failure, and consequences of failure. The most significant of the three factors is context - what the I and C is connected to, both directly and indirectly, including its potential effects on plant systems that respond to transients or accidents. The graded approach is particularly helpful in assessing potential CCFs resulting from digital I and C failures, and shows why the most problematic CCFs will be those that can affect multiple plant systems. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Off-Gas Adsorption Model Capabilities and Recommendations

Off-gas treatment is required to reduce emissions from aqueous fuel reprocessing. Evaluating the products of innovative gas adsorption research requires increased computational simulation capability to more effectively transition from fundamental research to operational design. Early modeling efforts produced the Off-Gas SeParation and REcoverY (OSPREY) model that, while efficient in terms of computation time, was of limited value for complex systems. However, the computational and programming lessons learned in development of the initial model were used to develop Discontinuous Galerkin OSPREY (DGOSPREY), a more effective model. Initial comparisons between OSPREY and DGOSPREY show that, while OSPREY does reasonably well to capture the initial breakthrough time, it displays far too much numerical dispersion to accurately capture the real shape of the breakthrough curves. DGOSPREY is a much better tool as it utilizes a more stable set of numerical methods. In addition, DGOSPREY has shown the capability to capture complex, multispecies adsorption behavior, while OSPREY currently only works for a single adsorbing species. This capability makes DGOSPREY ultimately a more practical tool for real world simulations involving many different gas species. While DGOSPREY has initially performed very well, there is still need for improvement. The current state of DGOSPREY does not include any micro-scale adsorption kinetics and therefore assumes instantaneous adsorption. This is a major source of error in predicting water vapor breakthrough because the kinetics of that adsorption mechanism is particularly slow. However, this deficiency can be remedied by building kinetic kernels into DGOSPREY. Another source of error in DGOSPREY stems from data gaps in single species, such as Kr and Xe, isotherms. Since isotherm data for each gas is currently available at a single temperature, the model is unable to predict adsorption at temperatures outside of the set of data currently available. Thus, in order to improve the predictive capabilities of the model, there is a need for more single-species adsorption isotherms at different temperatures, in addition to extending the model to include adsorption kinetics. This report provides background information about the modeling process and a path forward for further model improvement in terms of accuracy and user interface.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Onboard Transit Survey - Philadelphia Regional - 2012

The main purpose of the survey was to gather current data on how the transit system was being used in 2010. The survey asked passengers a series of questions about their household characteristics and the trip that they were making on the day of the survey. The survey was conducted in three phases between December 2010 and December 2011. Close to 1.1 million unlinked trips are made on an average weekday on all 140 routes systemwide. The survey results suggest several different populations of users. At the low end of the economic spectrum are passengers who really have no other transit option besides public transit. There is also a group of passengers that appear to be somewhat better off financially. They could be categorized as middle-income households, and many of these passengers may have other options for transportation, but they choose to take public transit because it makes sense for them from a financial or time-savings standpoint. Finally, there may be a smaller group of passengers who may live and work downtown in relatively high-paying positions. These passengers can afford to take a taxi but choose to ride transit because of its convenience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The MELCOR Analysis of Chinshan Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Pool for Fukushima-like Accident

The safety analysis of the nuclear power plant (NPP) is very important work in the NPP safety. Especially after the Fukushima NPP accident occurred, the importance of NPP safety analysis has been raised and there is more concern for the safety of NPPs in Taiwan. Because the earthquake and tsunami occurred, the cooling system of spent fuel pool failed and the safety issue of spent fuel pool generated in Japan's Fukushima NPP. Chinshan NPP is the first NPP in Taiwan which is BWR/4 plant and OLTP (Original Licensed Thermal Power) for each unit is 1775 MWt. Chinshan NPP finished SPU (stretch power uprate) and the operating power is 103.66% of the OLTP, which is 1840 MWt now. After Fukushima NPP accident occurred, in order to concern the safety of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool, we performed the safety analysis of spent fuel pool by using MELCOR/SNAP which also assumed the cooling system of spent fuel pool failed. The geometry of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool is 12.17 m x 7.87 m x 11.61 m and the initial condition is 60 deg. (water temperature) / 1.013 x 10{sup 5} Pa. And, the total power of the fuels is roughly 8.9 MWt initially. MELCOR is developed by Sandia National Laboratories. MELCOR is a fully integrated, engineering-level computer code that models the progression of severe accidents in light water reactor NPPs, including containment response and leakage of activity to the environment. A broad spectrum of severe accident phenomena in both BWRs and PWRs is treated in MELCOR in a unified framework. These include thermalhydraulic response in the reactor coolant system, reactor cavity, containment, and confinement buildings; core heatup, degradation, and relocation; core-concrete attack; hydrogen production, transport, and combustion; fission product release and transport behavior. Current uses of MELCOR include estimation of severe accident source terms and their sensitivities and uncertainties in a variety of applications. According to Dr. Carbajo's paper, MELCOR was used to perform the study of spent fuel pool of Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4. Niina E. Koenoenen used MELCOR to establish the spent fuel pool model of a Nordic BWR. The loss-of-pool-cooling accidents was simulated and analyzed by this model. The above studies indicate that MELCOR is capable of handling the simulation of the spent fuel pool. An increasing number of researchers are using MELCOR code to analyze test facilities and nuclear power plants. Jun Wang et al. used MELCOR to perform core degradation simulation and MELCOR results were compared with CORA experimental data. Through this work, they reviewed the performance of MELCOR COR package in detail. Tae Woon Kim et al. developed MELCOR model of APR1400 (an advanced pressurized water reactor). They used this model to perform the LBLOCA transient simulation and sensitivity study. Longze Li et al. established the MELCOR model of CPR1000 (a Chinese pressurized reactor 1000-MW power plant). The station blackout (SBO) with failure of the steam generator (SG) safety relief valve (SRV) transient was simulated and analyzed by this model. SNAP is a graphic user interface program that processes the inputs and outputs of MELCOR. In addition, there is an animation function in SNAP which can present the animation of analysis results. There are two main steps in this research. The first step was the establishment of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool MELCOR/SNAP model. And the transient analysis of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool MELCOR/SNAP model under the cooling system failure condition was performed. The next step was the comparison among the MELCOR, TRACE and CFD data. TRACE and CFD data were from INER reports. In addition, the animation model of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool was presented by using the animation function of SNAP with MELCOR/SNAP analysis results. This study has developed MELCOR/SNAP model of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool successfully. By using the above model, the safety analysis of the spent fuel pool was performed under the cooling system of spent fuel pool failed condition. The analysis results of MELCOR, TRACE and CFD were similar in this case. It indicated that there was a respectable accuracy in MELCOR/SNAP model. The analysis results depicted that the uncovered of the fuels occurred at 2.6 day and the metal-water reaction of fuels occurred roughly at 3.7 day after the cooling system failed. The above results indicated that the failure of cladding occurred after 3.7 day. This study's results can help to evaluate the safety issue of Chinshan NPP spent fuel pool. In addition, the cooling system and some mitigation measures of spent fuel pool is not simulated in the above model. However, we will do it in the future. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗