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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Is There A Relationship Between Cornered-Hat Methods and A Residual Approach to Estimate System Uncertainty?

Recently a relationship has been established between a now traditional residual diagnostic used to estimate observation, background and analysis error covariances of interest to data assimilation and the three-cornered hat (3CH) method. An existing extension of the traditional residual diagnostic uses residuals from a fixed lag-1 Kalman smoother to retrieve system (model) error covariance. It is thus natural to ask if an additional relationship can be established between this extended residual method and some form of cornered--hat method. The answer might seem straightforward. Unlike in the standard residual estimation case, attempting to estimate model error amounts to estimating the statistics of a residual quantity itself. As shown in this presentation, in such cases the 3CH method becomes trivial: the sought out uncertainty can be derived directly from the covariance of the residual quantity at hand. In the particular case of estimating model error, one of the corners would have to be composed of vectors providing estimates of model error; these are not typically available in practice. Therefore, at first glance the present work finds no relationship between the lag-1 smoother residual diagnostic for system error estimation and cornered--hat methods. However, the work suggests that a two-tiered 3CH might be all that is necessary for system uncertainty to be obtained with 3CH.

Ricardo Todling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Control Algorithms for Mars Entry Vehicles With Flap-Based Trajectory Control Under Uncertainty

Flap-based steering systems on blunt-body entry vehicles may improve flight performance relative to heritage bank-angle steering systems. Successful implementation of articulating aerodynamic flaps on a hypersonic entry vehicle requires an active control system to map angle of attack and sidelip angle commands to flap deflection commands. Here, a successive-linearization model prective control algorithm, as a linear quadratic regulator, are formulated, designed, and assessed to address this multiple input multiple output control problem. These two control algorithms are assessed under uncertainty in Monte Carlo simulations for various control profiles and vehicle configurations. Results indicate that while both control algorithms provide successful command tracking under uncertainty, the model predictive controller provides a lower mean and integral error, as well as greater robustness, relative to the linear-quadratic regulator.

Daniel L Engel↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Classical Theories of Dendritic Growth Kinetics Applied to Nickel-Based Alloys

The solidification velocity in a model nickel-alloy single crystal during laser spot melting was recently characterized using synchrotron X-ray imaging. The measured solidification velocity was found to exceed the absolute stability threshold predicted by the Kurz-Giovanola-Trivedi (KGT) model. The discrepancies between the model and experiments motivate the further assessment of accurate material properties. This work quantifies the impact material property uncertainty has on model predictions of the absolute stability threshold velocities. Properties from the literature are reviewed and compared to those calculated using computational thermodynamics to provide uncertainty estimates on input properties to the KGT model. Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of each uncertain input property on the predicted threshold velocity. This work supports the understanding of the nickel-alloy solidification during powder bed fusion additive manufacturing and identifies the solidification material properties that are the most important to assess from first-principles computations and experiments.

Computational thermodynamics↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

trajectory prediction uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Mathematical Model and Algorithm for Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

A central challenge in managing today's commercial en route air traffic is the task of routing the aircraft in the presence of adverse weather. Such weather can make regions of the airspace unusable, so all affected flights must be re-routed. Today this task is carried out by conference and negotiation between human air traffic controllers (ATC) responsible for the involved sectors of the airspace. One can argue that, in so doing, ATC try to solve an optimization problem without giving it a precise quantitative formulation. Such a formulation gives the mathematical machinery for constructing and verifying algorithms that are aimed at solving the problem. This paper contributes one such formulation and a corresponding algorithm. The algorithm addresses weather uncertainty and has closed form, which allows transparent analysis of correctness, realism, and computational costs.

uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS2012

Certainty Equivalence M-MRAC for Systems with Unmatched Uncertainties

The paper presents a certainty equivalence state feedback indirect adaptive control design method for the systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties. The approach is based on the parameter identification (estimation) model, which is completely separated from the control design and is capable of producing parameter estimates as fast as the computing power allows without generating high frequency oscillations. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters.

Unmatched uncertainties↗
NASA NTRS2017

SNPP VIIRS RSB Earth View Reflectance Uncertainty

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite uses its 14 reflective solar bands to passively collect solar radiant energy reflected off the Earth. The Level 1 product is the geolocated and radiometrically calibrated top-of- the-atmosphere solar reflectance. The absolute radiometric uncertainty associated with this product includes contributions from the noise associated with measured detector digital counts and the radiometric calibration bias. Here, we provide a detailed algorithm for calculating the estimated standard deviation of the retrieved top-of-the-atmosphere spectral solar radiation reflectance.

VIIRS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Radiative Heating Indicators and Uncertainty Analysis for Mars 2020

This paper will present analysis to evaluate a functional form and associated parameters to determine the radiative heating at various back-shell locations of the Mars 2020 aeroshell. The radiative heating indicators are used for preliminary vehicle design, and to determine the worst-case trajectories for peak radiative heat flux and load. Historically, the functional form for radiative heating is based on free-stream parameters of density, velocity and a length scale, typically the nose-radius (or equivalent). However, a fit of this form has been shown to not provide significant enough accuracy when compared to simulation results. Therefore, a fit based on post-shock equilibrium calculations of CO and CO2 number density, temperature and pressure has been devised. The results from the TPS 15 01 trajectory were used to develop the fit. The fit was then applied to the MSL best estimated trajectory (BET). Furthermore, the paper will quantify the uncertainty in simulations of the radiative heating for Mars 2020.

Mars 2020↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Double Bootstrap Approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to Evaluate Response Uncertainty

The association between climate variability and episodic events, such as the antecedent moisture conditions prior to wildfire or the cooling following volcanic eruptions, is commonly assessed using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA). In SEA the epochal response is typically calculated as the average climate conditions prior to and following all event years or their deviation from climatology. However, the magnitude and significance of the inferred climate association may be sensitive to the selection or omission of individual key years, potentially resulting in a biased assessment of the relationship between these events and climate. Here we describe and test a modified double-bootstrap SEA that generates multiple unique draws of the key years and evaluates the sign, magnitude, and significance of event-climate relationships within a probabilistic framework. This multiple resampling helps quantify multiple uncertainties inherent in conventional applications of SEA within dendrochronology and paleoclimatology. We demonstrate our modified SEA by evaluating the volcanic cooling signal in a Northern Hemisphere tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the link between drought and wildfire events in the western United States. Finally, we make our Matlab and R code available to be adapted for future SEA applications.

Dendroclimatology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Analysis of the Pitch Damping Coefficient of Blunt Bodies, Measured from Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel Tests

Blunt body aerodynamics in re-entry conditions are characterized by oscillatory behavior that is often encapsulated by the pitch damping coefficient (Cmq). Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel (MSWT) testing with a Magnetic Suspension Balance System (MSBS) aims to improve blunt body wind tunnel testing by removing the sometimes unknown aerodynamic effects of traditional sting mounts, as well as generate more constrained outputs than vertical spin tunnel testing. Efforts to calculate the uncertainty of the pitch damping coefficient with a proposed Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) capsule model have been made by fitting an analytic prediction of the attitude time history to video data of a free-to-oscillate MSBS test.

Magnetic suspension, dynamic stability, uncertaint↗
NASA NTRS2022

NESC Peer Review of Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Integrated Vehicle Modal Test, Model Correlation, Development Flight Instrumentation (DFI) and Flight Loads Readiness; Uncertainty Propagation for Model Validation Sub-task

This report details a sub-task (regarding Uncertainty Propagation for Model Validation) from a NASA Engineering and Safety Center assessment that is a multi-year activity spanning the complete development of the Space Launch System integrated vehicle structural dynamic models, and the development of the certification of flight readiness for the Artemis 1 and Artemis 2 vehicles and their variants.

Exploration Systems Development; Development Fligh↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combining Data with Physical Knowledge for Uncertainty Quantification in Certification and Reliability Analysis

Unifying empirical data with predictive models can enable engineering cost-savings through certification by analysis and reliability-based design. Both concepts require rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) and robust understanding and treatment of relevant physics. Combining sampling-based UQ algorithms with high-fidelity simulations creates a computational bottleneck that is often alleviated through the use of machine learning (ML). ML can be used to create computationally efficient surrogates for simulations of complex or high-dimensional physical interactions (e.g., multi-phase interactions associated with melt pools in laser powder bed fusion or spatially-dependent material properties in functionally graded materials). However, negative side effects of ML may include a lack of interpretability and negative correlation between event rarity and simulation accuracy due to a lack of training data. As such, it is important to infuse ML algorithms with physics-based guardrails to provide confidence in their predictions. This talk will provide a brief review of recent NASA research at this intersection of physics-based simulation, ML, and UQ with a focus on certification and reliability analysis.

uncertainty quantification↗