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The Global Precipitation Mission

The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), expected to begin around 2006, is a follow-up to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Unlike TRMM, which primarily samples the tropics, GPM will sample both the tropics and mid-latitudes. The primary, or core, satellite will be a single, enhanced TRMM satellite that can quantify the 3-D spatial distributions of precipitation and its associated latent heat release. The core satellite will be complemented by a constellation of very small and inexpensive drones with passive microwave instruments that will sample the rainfall with sufficient frequency to be not only of climate interest, but also have local, short-term impacts by providing global rainfall coverage at approx. 3 h intervals. The data is expected to have substantial impact upon quantitative precipitation estimation/forecasting and data assimilation into global and mesoscale numerical models. Based upon previous studies of rainfall data assimilation, GPM is expected to lead to significant improvements in forecasts of extratropical and tropical cyclones. For example, GPM rainfall data can provide improved initialization of frontal systems over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The purpose of this talk is to provide information about GPM to the USWRP (U.S. Weather Research Program) community and to discuss impacts on quantitative precipitation estimation/forecasting and data assimilation.

Braun, Scott↗

A System Concept for the Advanced Post-TRMM Rainfall Profiling Radars

Atmospheric latent heating field is fundamental to all modes of atmospheric circulation and upper mixed layer circulations of the ocean. The key to understanding the atmospheric heating process is understanding how and where precipitation occurs. The principal atmospheric processes which link precipitation to atmospheric circulation include: (1) convective mass fluxes in the form of updrafts and downdrafts; (2) microphysical. nucleation and growth of hydrometeors; and (3) latent heating through dynamical controls on the gravitation-driven vertical mass flux of precipitation. It is well-known that surface and near-surface rainfall are two of the key forcing functions on a number of geophysical parameters at the surface-air interface. Over ocean, rainfall variation contributes to the redistribution of water salinity, sea surface temperature, fresh water supply, and marine biology and eco-system. Over land, rainfall plays a significant role in rainforest ecology and chemistry, land hydrology and surface runoff. Precipitation has also been closely linked to a number of atmospheric anomalies and natural hazards that occur at various time scales, including hurricanes, cyclones, tropical depressions, flash floods, droughts, and most noticeable of all, the El Ninos. From this point of view, the significance of global atmospheric precipitation has gone far beyond the science arena - it has a far-reaching impact on human's socio-economic well-being and sustenance. These and many other science applications require the knowledge of, in a global basis, the vertical rain structures, including vertical motion, rain intensity, differentiation of the precipitating hydrometeors' phase state, and the classification of mesoscale physical structure of the rain systems. The only direct means to obtain such information is the use of a spaceborne profiling radar. It is important to mention that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) have made a great stride forward towards this ultimate goal. The Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite is the first ever spaceborne radar dedicated to three-dimensional, global precipitation measurements over the tropics and the subtropics, as well as the detailed synopsis of a wide range of tropical rain storm systems. In only twelve months since launch, the PR, together with other science instruments abroad the satellite have already provided unprecedented insights into the rainfall systems. It is anticipated the a lot more exciting and important rain observations would be made by TRMM throughout its mission duration. While TRMM has provided invaluable data to the user community, it is only the first step towards advancing our knowledge on rain processes and its contributions to climate variability. It is envisioned that a TRMM follow-on mission is needed in such a way to capitalize on the pioneering information provided by TRMM, and its instrument capability must be extended beyond TRMM in such a way to fully address the key science questions from microphysical to climatic time scale. In fact, a number of new and innovative mission concepts have recently put forth for this purpose. Almost all of these new concepts have suggested the utility of a more advanced, high-resolution, Doppler-enabled, vertical profiling radar that can provide multi-parameter observations of precipitation. In this paper, a system concept for a second- gene ration precipitation radar (PR-2) which addresses the above requirements will be described.

Im, Eastwood↗

Effect of Combined Spaceborne Microwave and Continuous Lightning Measurements on Precipitation Forecasts of the 1998 Ground-Hog Day Storm

We evaluated the impact of several newly available sources of meteorological data on mesoscale model forecasts of precipitation produced by the extra-tropical cyclone that struck Florida on February 2, 1998. Precipitation distributions of convective rainfall events were derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Multi-Channel Passive Microwave Sensor (TMI) microwave radiometric data by means of the Goddard PROFiling (GPROF) algorithm. Continuous lightning distributions were obtained from sferics measurements obtained from a network of VLF radio receivers. Histograms of coincident sferics frequency distributions were matched to those of precipitation to derive bogus convective rainfall rates from the continuously available sferics measurements. SSM/I and TMI microwave data were used to derive Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW) distributions. The TMI also provided sea surface temperatures (SSTS) of the Loop Current and Gulf Stream with improved structural detail. A series of experiments assimilated IPW and latent heating from the bogus convective rainfall for six-hours in the MM5 mesoscale forecast model to produce nine-hour forecasts of all rainfall as well as other weather parameters. Although continuously assimilating latent heating only slightly improved the surface pressure distribution forecast, it significantly improved the precipitation forecasts. Correctly locating convective rainfall was found critical for assimilating latent heating in the forecast model, but measurement of the rainfall intensity proved to be less important. The improved SSTs also had a positive impact on rainfall forecasts for this case. Assimilating bogus rainfall in the model produced nine-hour forecasts of radar reflectivity distributions that agreed well with coincident observations from the TRMM spaceborne precipitation radar, ground based radar and spaceborne microwave measurements.

Weinman, James A.↗

Meteorological and Remote Sensing Applications of High Altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are maturing in performance and becoming available for routine use in environmental applications including weather reconnaissance and remote sensing. This paper presents a discussion of UAV characteristics and unique features compared with other measurement platforms. A summary of potential remote sensing applications is provided, along with details for four types of tropical cyclone missions. Capabilities of platforms developed under NASA's Environmental Research Aircraft and Sensor Technology (ERAST) program are reviewed, including the Altus, Perseus, and solar- powered Pathfinder, all of which have flown to over 57,000 ft (17 km). In many scientific missions, the science objectives drive the experimental design, thus defining the sensor payload, aircraft performance, and operational requirements. Some examples of science missions and the requisite UAV / payload system are given. A discussion of technology developments needed to fully mature UAV systems for routine operational use is included, along with remarks on future science and commercial UAV business opportunities.

Schoenung, S. M.↗

TRMM: Status of Precipitation Estimates and Science Highlights

As a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) seeks to understand the mechanisms through which changes in tropical rainfall influence global circulation. Over the past 3 years, TRMM has contributed significantly towards reducing uncertainty in satellite estimates of rainfall in the Tropics, where almost 67% of the Earth's rain falls. TRMM has provided knowledge related to the climatology, seasonality, and variation of tropical rainfall; the mesoscale structure of rain-producing systems; and the physics of precipitation. An overview of these results will be presented. Additionally, a summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics such as hurricane monitoring, climate analysis, forecasting, microphysics, environmental impacts, and El Nino/La Nina. Examples and plans for operational use of TRMM data in tropical cyclone monitoring and other applications will also be given.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Physical and Optical/Radiative Characteristics of Small Particles in Tropical Cirrus

Whether cirrus clouds heat or cool the Earth-atmosphere system depends on the relative importance of the cloud shortwave albedo effect and the cloud thermal greenhouse effect. Both an determined by the distribution of ice condensate with cloud particle size. The microphysics instrument package flown aboard the DC-8 In TOGA/COARE included an ice crystal replicator, a 2D Greyscale Cloud Particle Probe and a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Aerosol Probe. In combination. these instruments permitted particle size measurements between 0.5 micrometers and 2.6 mm diameter. Ice crystal replicas were used to validate signals from the electro-optical instruments. Typical results show a prevalence in tropical cirrus clouds of micron-sized particles, in addition to cloud particles that exceed 100 micrometer radius. The mechanism of their formation is growth of (hygroscopic, possibly ocean-derived) aerosol particles along the Kohler curves. The concentration of small particles is higher and less variable in space and time, and their tropospheric residence time is longer, than those of large cloud particles because of lower sedimentation velocities. Small particles shift effective cloud particle radii to sizes much smaller than the mean diameter of the cloud particles. This causes an increase in shortwave reflectivity and IR emissivity. and a decrease in transmissivity. In the cirrus outflow of tropical cyclone Oliver on 8 February, 1993, the reflectivity increases with altitude (decreasing temperature) stronger than does cloud emissivity, yielding enhanced radiative cooling at higher altitudes.

Pueschel, R. F.↗

Effects of Convective Asymmetries on Hurricane Intensity: A Numerical Study

The influence of the uniform large-scale flow, beta effect, and vertical shear of the environmental flow on hurricane intensity is investigated in the context of the induced convective or potential vorticity asymmetries with a hydrostatic primitive equation hurricane model. In agreement with the previous studies, imposing of one of these environmental effects can substantially weaken the simulated tropical cyclones. In response t o the environmental influence, significant asymmetries develop with a structure similar to the spiral bands in real hurricanes, which are dominated by wavenumber-one components. The tendencies of the mean radial, azimuthal winds and temperature associated with the environment-induced convective asymmetries are evaluated respectively. The resulting asymmetries can effectively reduce hurricane intensity by directly producing the negative tendency of the mean tangential wind in the vicinity of the radius of maximum wind, and by weakening the mean radial circulation. The reduction effects are closely associated with the spiral structure of the induced asymmetries. The time lag observed between the imposition of the environmental influence and the resulting rise in the minimum central pressure is the time required for developing the spiral structure. This study also confirms the axisymmetrization process associated with the induced wavenumber-one components of potential vorticity asymmetries, but it exists only within the radius of maximum wind.

Wu, Liguang↗

Early Results of the NASA Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX)

As reported at previous sessions of the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the Office of Earth Science within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been sponsoring the Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) since 1993. Although originally designed to support satellite calibration and validation activities and to demonstrate new remote sensing technology pertinent to the global water cycle, the CAMEX research objectives have evolved to include a strong emphasis on hurricane observational studies. A hallmark of CAMEX success has been fruitful research collaborations with the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Hurricanes At Landfall Initiative of the United States Weather Research Program. Satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observations collected during the 1998 and 200 1 field phases of CAMEX represent a wealth of information describing the three dimensional structure of tropical cyclones. Early research results gleaned from these observations have been submitted to a special issue of the American Meteorological Society Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. An overview of these early findings and their expected significance to the operational community will be presented during this talk.

Hood, Robbie↗

Infrared Data for Storm Analysis

The papers in this section include: 1) 'Thunderstorm Top Structure Observed by Aircraft Overflights with an Infrared Radiometer'; 2) 'Thunderstorm Intensity as Determined from Satellite Data'; 3) 'Relation of Satellite-Based Thunderstorm Intensity to Radar-Estimated Rainfall'; 4) 'A Simple Physical Basis for Relating Geosynchronous Satellite Infrared Observations to Thunderstorm Rainfall'; 5) 'Satellite-Observed Cloud-Top Height Changes in Tornadic Thunderstorms'; 6) 'Predicting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Satellite-Measured Equivalent Blackbody Temperatures of Cloud Tops'.

Adler, R.↗

Application of SeaWinds Scatterometer and TMI-SSM/I Rain Rates to Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting

Results provided by two different assimilation methodologies involving data from passive and active space-borne microwave instruments are presented. The impact of the precipitation estimates produced by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) in a previously developed 1D variational continuous assimilation algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall is shown on two hurricane cases. Results on the impact of the SeaWinds scatterometer on the intensity and track forecast of a mid-Atlantic hurricane are also presented. This work is the outcome of a collaborative effort between NASA and NOAA and indicates the substantial improvement in tropical cyclone forecasting that can result from the assimilation of space-based data in global atmospheric models.

Atlas, Robert↗

The GOES-R Lightning Mapper Sensor

The Lightning Mapper Sensor on GOES-R builds on previous measurements of lightning from low earth orbit by the OTD (Optical Transient Detector) and LIS (Lightning Imaging Sensor) sensors. Unlike observations from low earth orbit, the GOES-R platform will allow continuous monitoring of lightning activity over the Continental United States and southern Canada, Central and South America, and portions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The LMS will detect total (cloud-to-ground and intracloud) lightning at storm scale resolution (approx. 8 km) using a highly sensitive Charge Coupled Device (CCD) detector array. Discrimination between lightning optical transients and a bright sunlit background scene is accomplished by employing spectral, spatial, and temporal filtering along with a background subtraction technique. The result is 24 hour detection capability of total lightning. These total lightning observations can be made available to users within about 20 seconds. Research indicates a number of ways that total lightning observations from LMS could benefit operational activities, including 1) potential increases in lead times and reduced false alarms for severe thunderstorm and tornado Warnings, 2) improved routing of &rail around thunderstorms, 3) support for spacecraft launches and landings, 4) improved ability to monitor tropical cyclone intensity, 5) ability to monitor thunderstorm intensification/weakening during radar outages or where radar coverage is poor, 6) better identification of deep convection for the initialization of numerical prediction models, 7) improved forest fire forecasts, 8) identification of convective initiation, 9) identification of heavy convective snowfall, and 10) enhanced temporal resolution of storm evolution (1 minute) than is available from radar observations. Total lightning data has been used in an operational environment since July 2003 at the Huntsville, Alabama National Weather Service office. Total lightning measurements are obtained by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and have successfully been used in warning decisions. Every 2 minutes, total lightning counts in 2 km by 2 km horizontal, 1 km vertical grids are available to forecasters on an AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) workstation. Experience with the LMA total lightning data is used to illustrate the potential use of LMS data that would be available to forecasters across the US. This abstract is for submission as a presentation to the National Weather Association Annual Meeting to be held 16-21 October 2004 in Portland, OR. This abstract will be published in the conference proceedings.

Buechler, Dennis↗

Growing Typhoon Influence on East Asia

Numerical model studies have suggested that the ongoing global warming will likely affect tropical cyclone activity. But so far little observed evidence has been detected to support the projected future changes. Using satellite-supported best-track data from 1965 to 2003, we show for the first time that over the past four decades the two prevailing typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) have shifted westward significantly; the typhoon activity over the South China Sea has considerably decreased; and East Asia has experienced increasing typhoon influence. Our trajectory model simulation indicates that the long-term shifts in the typhoon tracks result primarily from the changes in the mean translation velocity of typhoons or the large-scale steering flow, which is associated with the westward expansion and strengthening of the WNP subtropical high.

Wu, Liguang↗

NASA's Earth Observations of the Global Environment: Our Changing Planet and the View from Space

A birds eye view of the Earth from afar and up close reveals the power and magnificence of the Earth and juxtaposes the simultaneous impacts and powerlessness of humankind. The NASA Electronic Theater presents Earth science observations and visualizations in an historical perspective. See the latest spectacular images from NASA remote sensing missions like TRMM, SeaWiFS, Landsat 7, Terra, and Aqua, which will be visualized and explained in the context of global change and man s impact on our world s environment. See visualizations of global data sets currently available from Earth orbiting satellites, including the Earth at night with its city lights. Shown in high resolution are visualizations of tropical cyclone Eline and the resulting flooding of Mozambique. See flybys of Cape Town, South Africa with its dramatic mountains and landscape, as well as satellite imagery of fires that occurred globally, with a special emphasis on fires in the western US during summer 2001, and how new satellite tools can be used to help fight these disasters from spreading further. See where and when lightning occurs globally, and how dramatic urbanization has been in the desert southwest since 1910. Spectacular visualizations of the global atmosphere and oceans are shown. Learn when and where carbon is absorbed by vegetation on the land and ocean as the product of photosynthesis. See demonstrations of the 3-dimensional structure of hurricanes and cloud structures derived from recently launched Earth-orbiting satellites, and how hurricanes can modify the sea surface temperature in their wake. See massive dust storms in the Middle East as well as dust transport sweeping from north Africa across the Atlantic to the Caribbean and Amazon basin. Learn where and how much the temperature of the Earth s surface has changed during the 20th century, as well as how sea ice has decreased over the Arctic region, how sea level has and is likely to continue to change, and how glaciers have retreated worldwide in a response to global change. We will illustrate these and other topics with a dynamic theater-style presentation, along with animations of satellite launch deployments and orbital mapping to highlight aspects of Earth observations from space.

King, michael D.↗

NASA's Earth Observations of the Global Environment: Our Changing Planet and the View from Space

This presentation focuses on the latest spectacular images from NASA's remote sensing missions like TRMM, SeaWiFS, Landsat 7, Terra, and Aqua which will be visualized and explained in the context of global change and man's impact on our world's environment. Visualizations of global data currently available from Earth orbiting satellites include the Earth at night with its city lights, high resolutions of tropical cyclone Eline and the resulting flooding of Mozambique as well as flybys of Cape Town, South Africa with its dramatic mountains and landscape, imagery of fires that occurred globally, with a special emphasis on fires in the western US during summer 2001. Visualizations of the global atmosphere and oceans are shown and demonstrations of the 3-dimensional structure of hurricane and cloud structures derived from recently launched Earth-orbiting satellites are are presented with other topics with a dynamic theater-style , along with animations of satellite launch deployments and orbital mapping to highlight aspects of Earth observations from space.

King, Michael D.↗

A View of Hurricane Katrina with Early 2lSt Century Technology

Recent advances in space-borne observations and numerical weather prediction models provide new opportunities for improving hurricane forecasts. In this study, state-of-the-art satellite observations are used to document the evolution of one of the most devastating tropical cyclones ever to hit the United States: Hurricane Katrina. The ECMWF and NASA global high-resolution forecasts, the latter being run in experimental mode, are compared with satellite observations, with a focus on precipitation and cloud processes. Future directions on modeling and observations are briefly discussed.

Lin, Xin↗

Monitoring Marine Weather Systems Using Quikscat and TRMM Data

We do not understand nor are able to predict marine storms, particularly tropical cyclones, sufficiently well because ground-based measurements are sparse and operational numerical weather prediction models do not have sufficient spatial resolution nor accurate parameterization of the physics.

Hurricane remote-sensing wind rain↗

Simulation of the Impact of New Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of surface wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new passive microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the current real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airbome Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 x the aircraft altitude, or approximately 2 km from space). The instrument is described in a separate paper presented at this conference. The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a numerical model from the University of Miami, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the relative impact of HIRAD and other instruments on H*Wind analyses, including the use of HIRAD from 2 aircraft altitudes and from a space-based platform.

Miller, Timothy↗

TRMM's Contribution to Our Knowledge of Climatology, Storms and Floods

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has successfully completed nearly ten years in orbit. A brief review of the history and accomplishments of this joint mission between the U.S. and Japan is presented. Research highlights will focus on the seasonal cycle of a TRMM-based rainfall climatology, which takes advantage of the multiple rain estimates available from TRMM. Examples will be given of the use of TRMM data to diagnose the impact of man on precipitation patterns through urbanization and the effect of pollution. Use of TRMM data for tropical cyclone operational analysis in the U.S. will also be shown. Methods for generating 3-hourly rainfall information from multiple satellites using TRMM to calibrate all the information will be described as will application of such information to study extreme rainfall events and associated floods and landslides. These results will emphasize the breadth of science success achieved with the 10-year record of observations from the only rain radar and passive microwave instrument combination in space. The outlook for continued operation of the TRMM satellite and progress in TRMM science and applications will be addressed.

Adler, Robert↗