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DOE OSTI2024

Capturing Infrastructure Interdependencies for Power Outages Prediction During Extreme Events

As extreme weather events such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods grow in frequency and intensity, the disruption of power grid systems poses significant challenges, including widespread electrical outages, economic losses, and threats to public safety. This paper presents a forward-looking approach that leverages geographical graph-based machine learning models to predict county-level maximum power outages during such events. By capturing the intricate interdependencies within power system networks, our approach aims to provide precise and actionable predictions that can optimize emergency response efforts and enhance grid resilience. Through the integration of real-world data, including hurricane advisories and power outage records, we have trained and benchmarked multiple machine learning models, demonstrating the feasibility and potential of this method. While our initial results are promising, this paper also charts a course for advancing these models, addressing the remaining challenges, and ultimately transforming how we anticipate and respond to the impacts of extreme weather on power systems.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt) [ORNL] (ORCID:000000021317511↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multichannel spectral estimation in acoustics: A state-space approach

Spectral estimation is a necessary methodology to analyze the frequency content of noisy data sets especially in acoustic applications. Many spectral techniques have evolved starting with the classical Fourier transform methods based on the well-known Wiener-Khintchine relationship relating the covariance-to-spectral density as a transform pair culminating with more elegant model-based parametric techniques that apply prior knowledge of the data to produce a high-resolution spectral estimate. Multichannel spectral representations are a class of both nonparametric, as well as parametric, estimators that provide improved spectral estimates. In any case, classical nonparametric multichannel techniques can provide reasonable estimates when coupled with peak-peaking methods as long as the signal levels are reasonably high. Furthermore, parametric multichannel methods can perform quite well in low signal level environments even when applying simple peak-picking techniques. In this paper, the performance of both nonparametric (periodogram) and parametric (state-space) multichannel spectral estimation methods are investigated when applied to both synthesized noisy structural vibration data as well as data obtained from a sounding rocket flight. It is demonstrated that for the multichannel problem, state-space techniques provide improved performance, offering a parametric alternative compared to classical methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Realistic model of entanglement-enhanced sensing in optical fibers

Experimental limitations such as optical loss and noise have prevented entanglement-enhanced measurements from demonstrating a significant quantum advantage in sensitivity. Holland-Burnett entangled states can mitigate these limitations and still present a quantum advantage in sensitivity. Here we model a fiber-based Mach-Zehnder interferometer with internal loss, detector efficiency, and external phase noise and without pure entanglement. This model features a practical fiber source that transforms the two-mode squeezed vacuum (TMSV) into Holland-Burnett entangled states. We predict that a phase sensitivity 28% beyond the shot noise limit is feasible with current technology. Simultaneously, a TMSV source can provide about 25 times more photon flux than other entangled sources. This system will make fiber-based quantum-enhanced sensing accessible and practical for remote sensing and probing photosensitive materials.

Krueper, Gregory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Seismic Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty

Artificial intelligence has transformed the seismic community with deep learning models (DLMs) that are trained to complete specific tasks within workflows. However, there is still a lack of robust evaluation frameworks for evaluating and comparing DLMs. Here, we address this gap by designing an evaluation framework that jointly incorporates two crucial aspects: performance uncertainty and learning efficiency. To target these aspects, we meticulously construct the training, validation, and test splits using a clustering method tailored to seismic data and enact an expansive training design to segregate performance uncertainty arising from stochastic training processes and random data sampling. The framework’s ability to guard against misleading declarations of model superiority is demonstrated through the evaluation of PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2018), a popular seismic phase picking DLM, under three training approaches. Our framework helps practitioners choose the best model for their problem and set performance expectations by explicitly analyzing model performance with uncertainty at varying budgets of training data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

AI-Driven Frameworks for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

We develop AI-driven frameworks to characterize urban energy systems with the goal of transforming planning by reducing the labor of model generation, scaling scenario exploration, and improving accuracy for localized analysis. The approach integrates top-down and bottom-up data to train different AI models that predict missing information and generate inputs and targeted scenarios for district-scale models. The result is a scalable framework that provides actionable insights for reliable and efficient planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Earthquake Nowcasting with Deep Learning

We review previous approaches to nowcasting earthquakes and introduce new approaches based on deep learning using three distinct models based on recurrent neural networks and transformers. We discuss different choices for observables and measures presenting promising initial results for a region of Southern California from 1950–2020. Earthquake activity is predicted as a function of 0.1-degree spatial bins for time periods varying from two weeks to four years. The overall quality is measured by the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency comparing the deviation of nowcast and observation with the variance over time in each spatial region. The software is available as open source together with the preprocessed data from the USGS.

Fox, Geoffrey Charles (ORCID:0000000310171391)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parallel Grid-Forming Inverter-Driven Black Start: Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation: Preprint

With power systems encountering increasing deployment levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs), system restoration using grid-forming (GFM) IBRs has gained attention. Engineered to establish grid voltages in the absence of a stiff grid, black-start-capable GFM IBRs are expected to enhance power system resilience by playing a critical role in bottom-up system restoration. This paper experimentally studies the feasibility of the novel approach through power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) testing and validation with a commercial GFM inverter. The PHIL test setup demonstrates an inverter-driven black start of a 5-MW unbalanced distribution feeder where two GFM inverters collectively black start the feeder: one is a commercial hardware GFM inverter interacting through the PHIL interface, and the other is a software GFM emulated by a real-time simulation with full electromagnetic transient (EMT) models. Both GFM inverters are equipped with negative-sequence voltage control to suppress the voltage imbalance resulting from the unbalanced loading, allowing us to study the dynamic interactions between the GFMs with their control parameters unknown. To evaluate the dynamic behavior of the GFM inverters under the entire black-start process, the EMT model of the distribution system details the transformer and motor dynamics to emulate their inrush and startup behaviors. It abstracts conventional grid-connected inverter dynamics, i.e., grid-following inverters. Oscilloscope measurements of the hardware GFM inverter are also presented for critical steps. Takeaways for further study and field deployment are provided.

grid-forming inverter↗

DOE OSTI2019

Moisture Corrosion of LiH: A Kinetic Investigation by DRIFT Spectroscopy

Lithium hydride (LiH) is a unique, ionic compound with applications in a variety of industries. Unfortunately, LiH is very reactive toward H 2 O even at ppm levels, forming oxide (Li 2 O) and hydroxide (LiOH) corrosion layers while outgassing H 2 . An effective means to eliminate unwanted outgassing is vacuum-heating to convert LiOH into Li 2 O, although subsequent re-exposure to moisture during transport/handling reconverts some Li 2 O back to LiOH. A corrosion growth model for previously vacuum-baked LiH is necessary for long-term prediction of the hydrolysis of LiH. In this work, a para-linear hydroxide corrosion growth model is proposed for the reaction of previously vacuum-baked LiH samples with moisture. This model, composed of two competing diffusion reaction fronts at the LiOH/Li 2 O and Li 2 O/LiH interfaces, is validated experimentally by subjecting a previously vacuum-baked polycrystalline LiH sample to 35 ppm of H 2 O at room temperature while monitoring the corrosion growth as a function of time with diffuse-reflectance infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT) spectroscopy. The para-linear growth model for the hydrolysis of previously vacuum-baked LiH proposed in this report can also serve as a template for the hydrolysis of other hygroscopic oxides grown on metal or metal hydride substrates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Two-dimensional diamonds from sp 2 -to- sp 3 phase transitions

The ability to change material properties through phase engineering has long been sought, with the goal of ad hoc tunability of the physical and chemical properties of the transformed phases. The synthesis and study of graphene have made it possible to explore the mechanisms of 2D phase transformations, opening up paths towards the formation of 2D diamond and diamond thin films. This Review examines the state-of-the-art phase transformations in 2D graphitic systems and beyond. The theoretical models formulated to describe the sp2-to-sp3 transitions from graphene to 2D diamond and the experimental processes developed to induce the transition to 2D diamond are discussed, focusing on the transformations induced by chemical functionalization and pressure. The effects of different structural and environmental factors on the evolution of the phase transformations and on the properties of the transformed diamond phases are explored. Without comprehensively reviewing phase transitions in all 2D materials, we briefly mention hexagonal boron nitride, phosphorene, transition metal dichalcogenides and MXenes systems. Lastly, the Review delves into the technologies and applications of phase transformations in 2D materials and the opportunities for this field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effect of magneto-mechanical synergism in the process-structure correlation in Fe–C alloys: A phase-field modeling approach

Applied magnetic fields can alter phase equilibria and kinetics in steels; however, quantitatively resolving how magnetic, chemical, and elastic driving forces jointly influence the microstructure remains challenging. We develop a quantitative magneto-mechanically coupled phase-field model for the Fe–C system that couples a CALPHAD-based chemical free energy with demagnetization-field magnetostatics and microelasticity. Here, the model reproduces single- and multi-particle evolution during the α → γ inverse transformation at 1023 K under external fields up to 20 T, including ellipsoidal morphologies observed experimentally at 8 T. Chemically driven growth is isotropic; a magnetic interaction introduces an anisotropic driving force that elongates γ precipitates along the field into ellipsoids, while elastic coherency promotes faceting, yielding elongated cuboidal or “brick-like” particles under combined magneto-elastic coupling. Growth kinetics increase with C content, and decrease with field strength and misfit strain. Multi-particle simulations reveal dipolar interaction-mediated coalescence for field-parallel neighbors and ripening for field-perpendicular neighbors. Incorporating field-dependent diffusivity from experiment slows kinetics as expected; a first-principles-motivated anisotropic diffusivity correction is estimated to be small (<2%). These results establish a process-structure link for magnetically assisted heat treatments of Fe–C alloys and provide guidance for microstructure control via chemo-magneto-mechanical synergism.

Magnetic field↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel transformation of the ice sheet Stokes equations and some of its properties and applications

We introduce a novel transformation of the Stokes equations into a form closely resembling the shallow Blatter–Pattyn equations. The two forms differ by only a few additional terms, while their variational formulations differ only by a single term in each horizontal direction. Specifically, the variational formulation of the Blatter–Pattyn model drops the vertical velocity in the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. Here we make use of the new transformation in two ways. First, we consider incorporating the transformed equations into a code that can be very easily converted from a Stokes to a Blatter–Pattyn model, and vice versa, by switching these terms on or off. This may be generalized so that the Stokes model is switched on adaptively only where the Blatter–Pattyn model loses accuracy. Second, the key role played by the vertical velocity in the Blatter–Pattyn approximation motivates new approximations. Two examples are presented. These require a mesh that enables the discrete continuity equation to be invertible for the vertical velocity in terms of the horizontal velocity components. Examples of such meshes, such as the first-order P1–E0 mesh and the second-order P2–E1 mesh, are given in both 2D and 3D. However, the transformed Stokes model has the same type of gravity forcing as the Blatter–Pattyn model, determined by the ice surface slope, thereby forgoing some of the mesh generality of the traditional formulation of the Stokes model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Oxyanion Surface Complexes Control the Kinetics and Pathway of Ferrihydrite Transformation to Goethite and Hematite

The rate and pathway of ferrihydrite (Fh) transformation at oxic conditions to more stable products is controlled largely by temperature, pH, and the presence of other ions in the system such as nitrate (NO 3 - ), sulfate (SO 4 2- ), and arsenate (AsO 4 3- ). Although the mechanism of Fh transformation and oxyanion complexation have been separately studied, the effect of surface complex type and strength on the rate and pathway remains only partly understood. We have developed a kinetic model that describes the effects of surface complex type and strength on Fh transformation to goethite (Gt) and hematite (Hm). Two sets of oxyanion-adsorbed Fh samples were prepared, nonbuffered and buffered, aged at 70 ± 1.5 °C, and then characterized using synchrotron X-ray scattering methods and wet chemical analysis. Kinetic modeling showed a significant decrease in the rate of Fh transformation for oxyanion surface complexes dominated by strong inner-sphere (SO 4 2- and AsO 4 3- ) versus weak outer-sphere (NO 3 - ) bonding and the control. The results also showed that the Fh transformation pathway is influenced by the type of surface complex such that with increasing strength of bonding, a smaller fraction of Gt forms compared with Hm. In conclusion, these findings are important for understanding and predicting the role of Fh in controlling the transport and fate of metal and metalloid oxyanions in natural and applied systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Precipitation-site competition in duplex stainless steels: Cu clusters vs spinodal decomposition interfaces as nucleation sites during thermal aging

Competing microstructural evolution mechanisms can exist simultaneously when duplex stainless steels are operating for several decades in a high temperature service environment. Such competition between different microstructural evolution pathways can be difficult to ascertain using simple model alloy systems necessitating detailed structural and compositional analysis of phase transformation mechanisms in complex alloys Thus, in this study duplex stainless steels with complex but well understood chemistries were used to investigate the relative importance of different heterogeneous nucleation sites – specifically spinodal decomposition and Cu clustering – on precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn particles during long term thermal aging. Precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn particles in duplex stainless steels and ferritic steels during thermal aging and irradiation is known to have profound effect on mechanical properties. Using duplex stainless steels with custom modified compositions along with atom probe tomography characterization and first-passage kinetic Monte Carlo (FPKMC) simulations it is revealed that while the interface between Cr and Fe formed during spinodal decomposition can be a pathway for diffusion of Ni, Si, Mn, and Cu, it is not a site that encourages precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn rich particles. Instead, the presence of a higher concentration of Cu in these steels leads to formation of small Cu clusters with high energy interfaces that act as nucleation sites for Ni-Si-Mn particles because of its strong interaction particularly with Ni increasing the chemical driving force for precipitation. These results will help inform predictive models for the use of duplex stainless steels and other precipitation-hardened alloys for extended operation at high temperatures.

Duplex stainless steel, Thermal aging, Precipitati↗

DOE OSTI2020

Do Programmers Prefer Predictable Expressions in Code?

Source code is a form of human communication, albeit one where the information shared between the programmers reading and writing the code is constrained by the requirement that the code executes correctly. Programming languages are more syntactically constrained than natural languages, but they are also very expressive, allowing a great many different ways to express even very simple computations. Still, code written by developers is highly predictable, and many programming tools have taken advantage of this phenomenon, relying on language model surprisal as a guiding mechanism. Additionally, while surprisal has been validated as a measure of cognitive load in natural language, its relation to human cognitive processes in code is still poorly understood. In this paper, we explore the relationship between surprisal and programmer preference at a small granularity—do programmers prefer more predictable expressions in code? Using meaning-preserving transformations, we produce equivalent alternatives to developer-written code expressions and run a corpus study on Java and Python projects. In general, language models rate the code expressions developers choose to write as more predictable than these transformed alternatives. Then, we perform two human subject studies asking participants to choose between two equivalent snippets of Java code with different surprisal scores (one original and transformed). We find that programmers do prefer more predictable variants, and that stronger language models like the transformer align more often and more consistently with these preferences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inflaton Decay in No-Scale Supergravity and Starobinsky-like Models

We consider the decay of the inflaton in Starobinsky-like models arising from either an R+R 2 theory of gravity or N = 1 no-scale supergravity models. If Standard Model matter is simply introduced to the R+R 2 theory, the inflaton (which appears when the theory is conformally transformed into the Einstein frame) couples to matter predominantly in Standard Model Higgs kinetic terms. This will typically lead to a reheating temperature of ~3 × 10 9 GeV. However, if the Standard Model Higgs is conformally coupled to curvature, the decay rate may be suppressed and vanishes for conformal coupling ζ = 1/6. Nevertheless, the inflaton decays through the conformal anomaly, leading to a reheating temperature of the order of 10 8 GeV. The Starobinsky potential may also arise in no-scale supergravity. In this case, the inflaton decays if there is a direct coupling of the inflaton to matter in the superpotential or to gauge fields through the gauge kinetic function. We also discuss the relation between the theories and demonstrate the correspondence between the no-scale models and the conformally coupled R+R 2 theory (with ζ = 1/6).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic exciton-scattering theory of optical line shapes: Renormalized many-body contributions

Spectral line shapes provide a window into the local environment coupled to a quantum transition in the condensed phase. In this paper, we build upon a stochastic model to account for non-stationary background processes produced by broad-band pulsed laser stimulation, as distinguished from those for stationary phonon bath. In particular, we consider the contribution of pair-fluctuations arising from the full bosonic many-body Hamiltonian within a mean-field approximation, treating the coupling to the system as a stochastic noise term. Herein, using the Itô transformation, we consider two limiting cases for our model, which lead to a connection between the observed spectral fluctuations and the spectral density of the environment. In the first case, we consider a Brownian environment and show that this produces spectral dynamics that relax to form dressed excitonic states and recover an Anderson–Kubo-like form for the spectral correlations. In the second case, we assume that the spectrum is Anderson–Kubo like and invert to determine the corresponding background. Using the Jensen inequality, we obtain an upper limit for the spectral density for the background. The results presented here provide the technical tools for applying the stochastic model to a broad range of problems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global variability in atmospheric new particle formation mechanisms

A key challenge in aerosol pollution studies and climate change assessment is to understand how atmospheric aerosol particles are initially formed. Although new particle formation (NPF) mechanisms have been described at specific sites, in most regions, such mechanisms remain uncertain to a large extent because of the limited ability of atmospheric models to simulate critical NPF processes. Here we synthesize molecular-level experiments to develop comprehensive representations of 11 NPF mechanisms and the complex chemical transformation of precursor gases in a fully coupled global climate model. Combined simulations and observations show that the dominant NPF mechanisms are distinct worldwide and vary with region and altitude. Previously neglected or underrepresented mechanisms involving organics, amines, iodine oxoacids and HNO 3 probably dominate NPF in most regions with high concentrations of aerosols or large aerosol radiative forcing; such regions include oceanic and human-polluted continental boundary layers, as well as the upper troposphere over rainforests and Asian monsoon regions. These underrepresented mechanisms also play notable roles in other areas, such as the upper troposphere of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Accordingly, NPF accounts for different fractions (10–80%) of the nuclei on which cloud forms at 0.5% supersaturation over various regions in the lower troposphere. The comprehensive simulation of global NPF mechanisms can help improve estimation and source attribution of the climate effects of aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Ice-Shelf Melting on Water-Mass Transformation in the Southern Ocean from E3SM Simulations

Abstract The Southern Ocean overturning circulation is driven by winds, heat fluxes, and freshwater sources. Among these sources of freshwater, Antarctic sea ice formation and melting play the dominant role. Even though ice-shelf melt is relatively small in magnitude, it is located close to regions of convection, where it may influence dense water formation. Here, we explore the impacts of ice-shelf melting on Southern Ocean water-mass transformation (WMT) using simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) both with and without the explicit representation of melt fluxes from beneath Antarctic ice shelves. We find that ice-shelf melting enhances transformation of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water, converting it to lower density values. While the overall differences in Southern Ocean WMT between the two simulations are moderate, freshwater fluxes produced by ice-shelf melting have a further, indirect impact on the Southern Ocean overturning circulation through their interaction with sea ice formation and melting, which also cause considerable upwelling. We further find that surface freshening and cooling by ice-shelf melting cause increased Antarctic sea ice production and stronger density stratification near the Antarctic coast. In addition, ice-shelf melting causes decreasing air temperature, which may be directly related to sea ice expansion. The increased stratification reduces vertical heat transport from the deeper ocean. Although the addition of ice-shelf melting processes leads to no significant changes in Southern Ocean WMT, the simulations and analysis conducted here point to a relationship between increased Antarctic ice-shelf melting and the increased role of sea ice in Southern Ocean overturning.

Jeong, Hyein↗