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We show that the reconstructed sensitivity of the sea level temperature to long term solar forcing in the Northern Hemisphere is in very good agreement with the empirical temperature pattern corresponding to changes of the North Annular Mode (NAM).
Previously, hyperspectral sounder brightness temperatures assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS) were limited to assimilating temperature and moisture. The ozone sensitive 9.6 m region is sensed by several hyperspectral sounders including AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder), IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), and CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder). Direct assimilation of brightness temperatures in the 9.6 m region have been operational at ECMWF for several years (Dragani and McNally, 2013; Eresmaa et al., 2017). With this study, similar improvements using the GEOS-ADAS are presented. Channels were selected from available operational subsets evaluating information content and minimizing inter-channel correlation. Additionally, information such as channel selections made by other studies, and vertical sensitivities of ozone and temperature were considered in developing the study. The analyses produced show improvements verified against ozonesondes taken from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes). It is anticipated that inclusion of these ozone sensitive channels will be used to improve NASA GMAO products in the near future.
Currently, there is disagreement among existing methods of determining atmospheric water vapor concentration at dew-points below -40 C. A major source of error is wall effects which result from the necessity of bringing samples into the instruments. All of these instruments also have response times on the order of seconds. NASA Langley is developing a water vapor sensor which utilizes the absorption of the infrared radiation produced by a diode laser to estimate water vapor concentration. The laser beam is directed through an aircraft window to a retroreflector located on an engine. The reflected beam is detected by an infrared detector located near the laser. To maximize signal to noise, derivative signals are analyzed. By measuring the 2f/DC signal and correcting for ambient temperature, atmospheric pressure and air speed (which results in a Doppler shifting of the laser beam), the water vapor concentration can be retrieved. Since this is an in situ measurement there are no wall effects and measurements can be made at a rate of more than 20 per second. This allows small spatial variations of water vapor to be studied. In order to study the sensitivity of the instrument to variations in temperature and air speed, a computer program which generated the 2f, 3f, 4f, DC and 2f/DC signals of the instrument as a function of temperature, pressure and air speed was written. This model was used to determine the effect of errors in measurement of the temperature and air speed on the measured water vapor concentration. Future studies will quantify the effect of pressure measurement errors, which are expected to be very small. As a result of these studied, a retrieval algorithm has been formulated, and will be applied to data taken during the PEM-West atmospheric science field mission. Spectroscopic studies of the water vapor line used by the instrument will be used to refine this algorithm. To prepare for these studies, several lasers have been studied to determine their output frequency range and power.
Mineral aerosols can absorb significant radiation in the infrared spectrum. Consequently, there may be errors in TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) retrieved temperature and moisture profiles in regions of heavy dust loading. We first investigate the potential error in the temperature retrievals and secondly attempt to account for radiative effects of the dust in retrievals. Information on the dust concentrations and size distribution is from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Transport model (GOCART). Aerosol optical parameters are calculated from mie scattering theory assuming a composition of pure illite. We used the cloud-clearing DAO TOVS retrieval system of Joiner and Rokke (2000). It is incorporated into the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Finite Volume Data Assimilation System (NDAS). The advantage of this approach is that the first guess temperature profile used in the TOVS retrieval are forecasted temperatures from the previous assimilated time period. The operational DAO fvDAS was run for 10 days during June 2001 during a period of dust outbreaks off the coast of Africa over the Atlantic. The observed minus the forecast (O-F) brightness temperature at each TOVS channel is a measure of the accuracy of the retrieval. Since there was no account of dust during this operational run, a dependence of O-F on the estimated atmospheric dust concentrations from GOCART indicates that the dust is contaminating the TOVS retrievals. Channels that measure the surface temperature, lower tropospheric temperature and moisture show this dependence. There are errors in the retrieved brightness temperature of a half a degree or more during heavy dust loading conditions. The forecasted brightness temperature is always greater than the observed value. The radiative transfer module used in the DAO TOVS retrieval system was modified to account for dust. We calculate the sensitivity of the brightness temperature of the TOVS channels to the dust concentrations in GOCART assuming pure illite. For most channels the observed relationship between O-F and dust concentrations in GOCART is consistent with these calculated sensitivities. The fvDAS run was repeated using the modified DAO TOVS retrieval system that accounts for dust. Preliminary results from this run show that there are significant effects on the retrieved surface temperature and tropospheric moisture.
Previously, hyperspectral sounder brightness temperatures assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS) were limited to assimilating temperature and moisture. The ozone sensitive 9.6 m region is sensed by several hyperspectral sounders including AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder), IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), and CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder). Direct assimilation of brightness temperatures in the 9.6 m region have been operational at ECMWF for several years (Dragani and McNally, 2013; Eresmaa et al., 2017). With this study, similar improvements using the GEOS-ADAS are presented. Channels were selected from available operational subsets evaluating information content and minimizing inter-channel correlation. Additionally, information such as channel selections made by other studies, and vertical sensitivities of ozone and temperature were considered in developing the study. The analyses produced show improvements verified against ozonesondes taken from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes), and WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center). Inclusion of inter-channel correlation error to the selected ozone channels are expected to improve ozone analyses further along with improve analyses overall. It is anticipated that inclusion of these ozone sensitive channels will be used to improve NASA GMAO products in the near future.
Previously, hyperspectral sounder brightness temperatures assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS) were limited to assimilating temperature and moisture. The ozone sensitive 9.6 m region is sensed by several hyperspectral sounders including AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder), IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), and CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder). Direct assimilation of brightness temperatures in the 9.6 m region have been operational at ECMWF for several years (Dragani and McNally, 2013; Eresmaa et al., 2017). With this study, similar improvements using the GEOS-ADAS are presented. Channels were selected from available operational subsets evaluating information content and minimizing inter-channel correlation. Additionally, information such as channel selections made by other studies, and vertical sensitivities of ozone and temperature were considered. The analyses produced show improvements verified against ozonesondes taken from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes), and WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center). While care was taken to minimize inter-channel correlation through channel selection, a key feature available in the GEOS-ADAS is the ability to account for correlated error. The importance of inter-channel correlated error is highlighted by performing assimilation experiments with and without inter-channel correlation in the GEOS-ADAS. It is anticipated that inclusion of these ozone sensitive channels will be used to improve NASA GMAO products in the near future.
Improved germanium resistance thermometer measures temperatures as small as 0.01 K accurately. Design provides large area for electrical connections (to reduce electrical gradients and increase sensitivity to changes in temperatures) and large heat sink (to minimize resistance heating). Gold pads on top and bottom of germanium crystal distribute electrical current and flow of heat nearly uniformly across crystal. Less expensive than magnetic thermometers or superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUID's) otherwise used.
A diode for sensing hydrogen and hydrocarbons and the process for manufacturing the diode are disclosed. The diode is a Schottky diode which has a palladium chrome contact on the C-face of an n-type 6H Silicon carbide epilayer. The epilayer is grown on the C-face of a 6H silicon carbide substrate. The diode is capable of measuring low concentrations of hydrogen and hydrocarbons at high temperatures, for example, 800 degrees C. The diode is both sensitive and stable at elevated temperatures.
Experiments conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center indicate that Joule-Thomson devices become clogged when transferring liquid hydrogen (LH2), operating at a temperature range from 20.5 to 24.4 K. Blockage does not exist under all test conditions but is found to be sensitive to the inlet temperature of the LH2. At a subcooled inlet temperature of 20.5 K blockage consistently appears but is dissipated when the fluid temperature is raised above 24.5 K. Clogging steadily reduced flow rate through the orifices, eventually resulting in complete blockage. This tendency poses a threat to spacecraft cryogenic propulsion systems that would utilize passive thermal control systems. We propose that this clogging is due to trace amounts of neon in the regular LH2 supply. Neon freezes at 24.5 K at one atmosphere pressure. It is postulated that between 20.5 and 24.5 K, neon remains in a meta-stable, supercooled liquid state. When impacting the face of an orifice, liquid neon droplets solidify and accumulate, blocking flow over time. The purpose of this test program was to definitively quantify the phenomena experimentally by obtaining direct visual evidence of orifice clogging by accretion from neon contaminates in the LH2 flow stream, utilizing state of the art imaging technology. Tests were conducted with LH2 flowing in the temperature range of 20.5 to 24.4 K. Additional imaging was also done at LH2 temperatures with no flow to verify clear view through the orifice.
Short-term precipitation forecast skill remains poor despite further advances in numerical modeling and data analysis. Utilizing indirect observations, such as the radiance observations obtained from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), in a 4D-Var assimilation scheme may lead to a rapid improvement in the skill of 12-h QPF. In order to investigate the usefulness of AIRS observations, the adjoint code of a radiative transfer model (SARTA) is developed and linked to MM5 4D-Var system. A statistical comparison of the AIRS radiances with those calculated using the linked MMS-SARTA model is carried out to assess errors in the radiative transfer model, MM5 and AIRS data, and to develop a quality control scheme. Outliers and any bias that may exist in radiative transfer model, MM5 and AIRS data are identified. An adjoint sensitivity study, utilizing the SARTA adjoint model, is then done to identify the relative sensitivities of each spectral channel to such parameters as atmospheric temperature, pressure, and mixing ratio. Another sensitivity study is done using the MM5 alone to determine the sensitivity of the 12-h QPF to model parameters such as atmospheric temperature, pressure, and mixing ratio under various weather regimes (i.e. summertime convection, winter snowfall). Results from these two types of adjoint sensitivity studies are used to determine which AIRS channels contribute most to 12-h QPF under differing weather regimes. This information is useful when conducting 4D-Var experiments using a subset of the 2378 AIRS spectral channels. Finally, 4D-Var experiments are done to analyze the impact of the AIRS observations on the quality of the 12-h QPF results. This project falls under the data assimilation general session topic as specified by the conference organizers.
A method for measurement of temperature in the earth's lower thermosphere from a high-velocity probes is described. An undisturbed atmospheric sample is admitted to the instrument by means of a free molecular flow inlet system of skimmers which avoids surface collisions of the molecules prior to detection. Measurement of the time-of-flight distribution of an initially well-localized group of nitrogen metastable molecular states produced in an open, crossed electron-molecular beam source, yields information on the atmospheric temperature. It is shown that for high vehicle velocities, the time-of-flight distribution of the metastable flux is a sensitive indicator of atmospheric temperature. The temperature measurement precision should be greater than 94% at the 99% confidence level over the range of altitudes from 120-170 km. These precision and altitude range estimates are based on the statistical consideration of the counting rates achieved with a multichannel analyzer using realistic values for system parameters.
Currently, hyperspectral sounder brightness temperatures assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS) are limited to assimilating temperature and moisture. The ozone sensitive 9.6 micron region is sensed by several hyperspectral sounders including AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder), IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), and CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder). Direct assimilation of brightness temperatures in the 9.6 micron region have been used previously to improve ozone analyses. This has recently been achieved by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) (Dragani and McNally, 2013; Eresmaa et al., 2017), and while every system presents its challenges, it should be possible to take advantage of this spectral region using the GEOS-ADAS. For this study, channels were selected from available operational subsets evaluating information content, and minimizing inter-channel correlation. Additionally, information such as channel selections made by other studies, and vertical sensitivities of ozone and temperature were considered in developing the study. The analyses produced show improvements verified against ozonesondes taken from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes), and WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center). The addition of ozone channels does degrade forecast skill in the Tropics, on the border of statistical significance. Overall, the addition of these channels in some form could improve ozone analyses in the GEOS-ADAS.
Climate change is an increasingly important driver of biodiversity loss. The ectothermic nature of amphibians may make them particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, adding to declines from other threats. While active season environmental conditions can influence growth and survival, effects of variation in winter conditions on population dynamics are less well-studied. Given that extreme winter temperatures can influence amphibian survival and fitness, we expected that increased winter severity—as measured by variability in winter temperatures and snow cover—would be associated with decreased occupancy, and that populations that experience more severe winters would have the largest sensitivities and show the greatest declines.
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.
Rabbits at ambient temperatures within the thermal neutral zone show two different metabolic responses to preoptic cooling. One response type is defined by a preoptic thermal sensitivity that shifts with ambient temperature and a 'set point' that remains constant. The other response type is defined by a set point that shifts with ambient temperature and a preoptic thermal sensitivity that remains constant. Both response types can be modeled by a single equation. Nonmetabolic thermoregulatory responses are not significantly different between the two response types.
Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.
In order to investigate the relative importance of dry metamorphism and aqueous alteration in the history of chondruies, chondruies were hand-picked from the Semarkona (petrographic type 3.0), Bishunpur (3. 1), Chainpur (3.4), Dhajala (3.8) and Allegan (5) chondrites, and matrix samples were extracted from the first three ordinary chondrites. The thermoluminescence (TL) properties of all the samples were measured, and appropriate subsets of the samples were analyzed by electron-microprobe and radiochemical neutron activation and the water and H-isotopic composition determined. The TL data for chondrules from Semarkona and Bishunpur scatter widely showing no unambiguous trends, although group B1 chondrules tend to have lower sensitivities and lower peak temperatures compared with group A5 chondrules. It is argued that these data reflect the variety of processes accompanying chondrule formation. The chondrules show remarkably uniform contents of the highly labile elements, indicating mineralogical control on abundance and volatile loss from silicates and loss and recondensation of mobile chalcophiles and siderophiles in some cases. Very high D/H values (up to approx. 8000% SMOW) are observed in certain Semarkona chondrules, a confirmation of earlier work. With increasing petrographic type, mean TL sensitivities of the chondrules increase, the spread of values within an individual meteorite decreases, and peak temperatures and peak widths show trends indicating that the TL is mainly produced by feldspar and that dry, thermal metamorphism is the dominant secondary process experienced by the chondrules. The TL sensitivities of matrix samples also increase with petrographic type. Chainpur matrix samples show the same spread of peak temperatures and peak widths as Chainpur chondruies, indicating metamorphism-related changes in the feldspar are responsible for the TL of the matrix. The TL data for the Semarkona and Bishunpur matrix samples provide, at best, only weak evidence for aqueous alteration, but the matrix contains H with approximately terrestrial D/H values, even though it contains much water. Secondary processes (probably aqueous alteration) presumably lowered the D/H of the matrix and certain chondrules. While chondrule properties appear to be governed primarily by formation processes and subsequent metamorphism, the matrix of Semarkona has a more complex history involving aqueous alteration as a meteorite-wide process.
A computationally efficient and accurate shape design sensitivity analysis approach for the thermal response of 3D solid objects is presented which utilizes a direct, singular, boundary element analysis formulation. The theoretical formulation for the primary response (the surface temperature and normal heat flux) sensitivities and the secondary response (tangential components of the heat flux, vector, interior point temperature and heat flux vector components) sensitivities are presented. A number of computational issues related to the overall efficiency of implementation of these formulations are discussed. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of this approach.