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At least 685 records · Page 38

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

Bavuso, J.↗

From Coherence to Function: Exploring the Connection in Chemical Systems

The role of quantum mechanical coherences or coherent superposition states in excited state processes has received considerable attention in the last two decades largely due to advancements in ultrafast laser spectroscopy. These coherence effects hold promise for enhancing the efficiency and robustness of functionally relevant processes, even when confronted with energy disorder and environmental fluctuations. Understanding coherence deeply drives us to unravel mechanisms and dynamics controlled by order and synchronization at a quantum mechanical level, envisioning optical control of coherence to enhance functions or create new ones in molecular and material systems. In this frontier, the interplay between electronic and vibrational dynamics, specifically the influence of vibrations in directing electronic dynamics, has emerged as the leading principle. Here, two energetically disparate quantum degrees of freedom work in-sync to dictate the trajectory of an excited state reaction. Moreover, with the vibrational degree being directly related to the structural composition of molecular or material systems, new molecular designs could be inspired by tailoring certain structural elements. In the realm of chemical kinetics, our understanding of the dynamics of chemical transformations is underpinned by fundamental theories, such as transition state theory, activated rate theory, and Marcus theory. These theories elucidate reaction rates by considering the energy barriers that must be overcome for reactants to transform into products. Those barriers are surmounted by the stochastic nature of energy gap fluctuations within reacting systems, emphasizing that the reaction coordinate, the pathway from reactants to products, is not rigidly defined by a specific vibrational motion but encompasses a diverse array of molecular motions. While less is known about the involvement of specific intramolecular vibrational modes, their significance in certain cases cannot be overlooked. In this Account, we summarize key experimental findings that offer deeper insights into the complex electronic–vibrational trajectories encompassing excited states afforded from state-of-the-art ultrafast laser spectroscopy in three exemplary processes: photoinduced electron transfer, singlet–triplet intersystem crossing, and intramolecular vibrational energy flow in molecular systems. We delve into the rapid decoherence, or loss of phase and amplitude correlations, of vibrational coherences along promoter vibrations during subpicosecond intersystem crossing dynamics in a series of binuclear platinum complexes. This rapid decoherence illustrates the vibration-driven reactive pathways from the Franck–Condon state to the curve crossing region. We also explore the generation of new vibrational coherences induced by impulsive reaction dynamics rather than by the laser pulse in these systems, which sheds light on specific energy dissipation pathways and thereby on the progression of the reaction trajectory in the vicinity of the curve crossing on the product side. Another property of vibrational coherences, amplitude, reveals how energy can flow from one vibration to another in the electronic excited state of a terpyridine–molybdenum complex hosting a nonreactive dinitrogen substrate. In conclusion, a slight change in vibrational energy triggers a quasi-resonant interaction, leading to constructive wavepacket interference and ultimately intramolecular vibrational redistribution from a Franck–Condon active terpyridine vibration to a dinitrogen stretching vibration, energizing the dinitrogen bond.

Electrical energy↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exhibition of Stochastic Resonance in Vestibular Perception

Astronauts experience sensorimotor changes during spaceflight, particularly during G-transitions. Post flight sensorimotor changes include spatial disorientation, along with postural and gait instability that may degrade operational capabilities of the astronauts and endanger the crew. A sensorimotor countermeasure that mitigates these effects would improve crewmember safety and decrease risk. The goal of this research is to investigate the potential use of stochastic vestibular stimulation (SVS) as a technology to improve sensorimotor function. We hypothesize that low levels of SVS will improve sensorimotor perception through the phenomenon of stochastic resonance (SR), when the response of a nonlinear system to a weak input signal is enhanced by the application of a particular nonzero level of noise. This study aims to advance the development of SVS as a potential countermeasure by 1) demonstrating the exhibition of stochastic resonance in vestibular perception, a vital component of sensorimotor function, 2) investigating the repeatability of SR exhibition, and 3) determining the relative contribution of the semicircular canals (SCC) and otolith (OTO) organs to vestibular perceptual SR. A constant current stimulator was used to deliver bilateral bipolar SVS via electrodes placed on each of the mastoid processes, as previously done. Vestibular perceptual motion recognition thresholds were measured using a 6-degree of freedom MOOG platform and a 150 trial 3-down/1-up staircase procedure. In the first test session, we measured vestibular perceptual thresholds in upright roll-tilt at 0.2 Hz (SCC+OTO) with SVS ranging from 0-700 μA. In a second test session a week later, we re-measured roll-tilt thresholds with 0, optimal (from test session 1), and 1500 μA SVS levels. A subset of these subjects, plus naive subjects, participated in two additional test sessions in which we measured thresholds in supine roll-rotation at 0.2 Hz (SCC) and upright y-translation at 1 Hz (OTO) with SVS up to 700 μA. A sinusoidal galvanic vestibular stimulation (GVS) perceptual threshold was also measured on each test day and used to normalize the SVS levels across subjects. In roll-tilt thresholds with SVS, the characteristic SR curve was qualitatively exhibited in 10 of 12 subjects, and the improvement in motion threshold was significant in 6 subjects, indicating that optimal SVS improved passive body motion perception in a way that is consistent with classical SR theory. A probabilistic comparison to numeric simulations further validated these experimental results. On the second test session, 4 out of the 10 SR exhibitors showed repeated improvement with SVS compared to the no SVS condition. Data collection is ongoing for the last two test sessions in which SCC and OTO only perceptual motion recognition thresholds are being measured with SVS. The final results of these test sessions will give insight into whether vestibular perceptual SR can occur when only one type of vestibular sensor is sensing motion or if it is more evident when sensory integration between the SCC and OTO is occurring during the motion. The overall purpose of this research is to further quantify the effects of SVS on various sensorimotor tasks and to gain a more fundamental understanding of how SVS causes SR in the vestibular system. In the context of human space flight, results from this research will help in understanding how SVS may be practically implemented in the future as a component of a comprehensive countermeasure plan for G-transition adaptation.

Galvan-Garza, R. C.↗

Data acquisition and analysis of range-finding systems for spacing construction

For space missions of future, completely autonomous robotic machines will be required to free astronauts from routine chores of equipment maintenance, servicing of faulty systems, etc. and to extend human capabilities in hazardous environments full of cosmic and other harmful radiations. In places of high radiation and uncontrollable ambient illuminations, T.V. camera based vision systems cannot work effectively. However, a vision system utilizing directly measured range information with a time of flight laser rangefinder, can successfully operate under these environments. Such a system will be independent of proper illumination conditions and the interfering effects of intense radiation of all kinds will be eliminated by the tuned input of the laser instrument. Processing the range data according to certain decision, stochastic estimation and heuristic schemes, the laser based vision system will recognize known objects and thus provide sufficient information to the robot's control system which can develop strategies for various objectives.

Shen, C. N.↗

A Hybrid Stochastic-Interval Operation Strategy for Multi-Energy Microgrids

Increasing deployment of distributed energy resources intensifies interactions among electric, gas, heating, and cooling systems. Inherent uncertainties ranging from internal parameters to external inputs also impose significant challenges on system operation. A coordinated scheduling method is, therefore, desired for facilitating efficient operation of multi-energy microgrids under multiple uncertainties. In this paper, a deterministic coordinated scheduling model is developed first with detailed modeling of system dynamics and device parameters to fully characterize complex interactions among multi-energy carriers. Then, a hybrid stochastic-interval method is proposed to account for heterogeneous uncertainties in decisions of operational strategies. Specifically, performance and efficiency uncertainties of distributed energy resources, and injection uncertainty of renewable sources and multienergy demands are characterized by interval-based uncertain operation regions and probability distributions, respectively. A scenario-based two-stage algorithm is developed to solve the problem so that multiple uncertainties are preserved in the entire decision-making process. Moreover, adjustable operational strategies are determined to hedge uncertainty by considering operators’ risk preferences. The validity of the proposed method is verified by comprehensive case studies on a test system.

hybrid stochastic-interval approach↗

Physical Model of Immune Inspired Computing

Artificial Immune System is a rapidly growing field of information processing and computing based upon immune inspired paradigns of nonlinear dynamics. This paper introduces stochastic models which mimic the phenomenology of basic functions of immune systems such as self-nonself discrimination, self-repair, predator-prey pursuit, and reproduction.

Immune↗

Improving Sensorimotor Function Using Stochastic Vestibular Stimulation

Astronauts experience sensorimotor changes during spaceflight, particularly during G-transition phases. Post flight sensorimotor changes may include postural and gait instability, spatial disorientation, and visual performance decrements, all of which can degrade operational capabilities of the astronauts and endanger the crew. Crewmember safety would be improved if these detrimental effects of spaceflight could be mitigated by a sensorimotor countermeasure and even further if adaptation to baseline could be facilitated. The goal of this research is to investigate the potential use of stochastic vestibular stimulation (SVS) as a technology to improve sensorimotor function. We hypothesize that low levels of SVS will improve sensorimotor performance through stochastic resonance (SR). The SR phenomenon occurs when the response of a nonlinear system to a weak input signal is optimized by the application of a particular nonzero level of noise. Two studies have been initiated to investigate the beneficial effects and potential practical usage of SVS. In both studies, electrical vestibular stimulation is applied via electrodes on the mastoid processes using a constant current stimulator. The first study aims to determine the repeatability of the effect of vestibular stimulation on sensorimotor performance and perception in order to better understand the practical use of SVS. The beneficial effect of low levels of SVS on balance performance has been shown in the past. This research uses the same balance task repeated multiple times within a day and across days to study the repeatability of the stimulation effects. The balance test consists of 50 sec trials in which the subject stands with his or her feet together, arms crossed, and eyes closed on compliant foam. Varying levels of SVS, ranging from 0-700 micro A, are applied across different trials. The subject-specific optimal SVS level is that which results in the best balance performance as measured by inertial measurement units placed on the upper and lower torso of the subjects. Additionally, each individual’s threshold for illusory motion perception of suprasensory electrical vestibular stimulation is measured multiple times within and across days to better understand how multiple SVS test methods compare. The second study aims to demonstrate stochastic resonance in the vestibular system using a perception based motion recognition task. This task measures an individual’s velocity threshold of motion recognition using a 6-degree of freedom Stewart platform and a 3-down/1-up staircase procedure. For this study, thresholds are determined using 150 trials in the upright, head-centered roll tilt motion direction at a 0.2 Hz frequency. We aim to demonstrate the characteristic bell shaped curve associated with stochastic resonance with each subject’s motion recognition thresholds at varying SVS levels ranging from 0 to 1500 micro A. The curve includes the individual’s baseline threshold with no SVS, optimal or minimal threshold at some mid-level of SVS, and finally degraded or increased threshold at a high SVS level. An additional aim is to formally retest each subject at his or her individual optimal SVS level on a different day than the original testing for additional validity. The overall purpose of this research is to further quantify the effects of SVS on various sensorimotor tasks and investigate the practical implications of its use in the context of human space flight so that it may be implemented in the future as a component of a comprehensive countermeasure plan for adaptation to G-transitions.

Galvan, R. C.↗

Flight Test of an Intelligent Flight-Control System

The F-15 Advanced Controls Technology for Integrated Vehicles (ACTIVE) airplane (see figure) was the test bed for a flight test of an intelligent flight control system (IFCS). This IFCS utilizes a neural network to determine critical stability and control derivatives for a control law, the real-time gains of which are computed by an algorithm that solves the Riccati equation. These derivatives are also used to identify the parameters of a dynamic model of the airplane. The model is used in a model-following portion of the control law, in order to provide specific vehicle handling characteristics. The flight test of the IFCS marks the initiation of the Intelligent Flight Control System Advanced Concept Program (IFCS ACP), which is a collaboration between NASA and Boeing Phantom Works. The goals of the IFCS ACP are to (1) develop the concept of a flight-control system that uses neural-network technology to identify aircraft characteristics to provide optimal aircraft performance, (2) develop a self-training neural network to update estimates of aircraft properties in flight, and (3) demonstrate the aforementioned concepts on the F-15 ACTIVE airplane in flight. The activities of the initial IFCS ACP were divided into three Phases, each devoted to the attainment of a different objective. The objective of Phase I was to develop a pre-trained neural network to store and recall the wind-tunnel-based stability and control derivatives of the vehicle. The objective of Phase II was to develop a neural network that can learn how to adjust the stability and control derivatives to account for failures or modeling deficiencies. The objective of Phase III was to develop a flight control system that uses the neural network outputs as a basis for controlling the aircraft. The flight test of the IFCS was performed in stages. In the first stage, the Phase I version of the pre-trained neural network was flown in a passive mode. The neural network software was running using flight data inputs with the outputs provided to instrumentation only. The IFCS was not used to control the airplane. In another stage of the flight test, the Phase I pre-trained neural network was integrated into a Phase III version of the flight control system. The Phase I pretrained neural network provided realtime stability and control derivatives to a Phase III controller that was based on a stochastic optimal feedforward and feedback technique (SOFFT). This combined Phase I/III system was operated together with the research flight-control system (RFCS) of the F-15 ACTIVE during the flight test. The RFCS enables the pilot to switch quickly from the experimental- research flight mode back to the safe conventional mode. These initial IFCS ACP flight tests were completed in April 1999. The Phase I/III flight test milestone was to demonstrate, across a range of subsonic and supersonic flight conditions, that the pre-trained neural network could be used to supply real-time aerodynamic stability and control derivatives to the closed-loop optimal SOFFT flight controller. Additional objectives attained in the flight test included (1) flight qualification of a neural-network-based control system; (2) the use of a combined neural-network/closed-loop optimal flight-control system to obtain level-one handling qualities; and (3) demonstration, through variation of control gains, that different handling qualities can be achieved by setting new target parameters. In addition, data for the Phase-II (on-line-learning) neural network were collected, during the use of stacked-frequency- sweep excitation, for post-flight analysis. Initial analysis of these data showed the potential for future flight tests that will incorporate the real-time identification and on-line learning aspects of the IFCS.

Davidson, Ron↗

Stability of uncertain systems

The asymptotic properties of feedback systems are discussed, containing uncertain parameters and subjected to stochastic perturbations. The approach is functional analytic in flavor and thereby avoids the use of Markov techniques and auxiliary Lyapunov functionals characteristic of the existing work in this area. The results are given for the probability distributions of the accessible signals in the system and are proved using the Prohorov theory of the convergence of measures. For general nonlinear systems, a result similar to the small loop-gain theorem of deterministic stability theory is given. Boundedness is a property of the induced distributions of the signals and not the usual notion of boundedness in norm. For the special class of feedback systems formed by the cascade of a white noise, a sector nonlinearity and convolution operator conditions are given to insure the total boundedness of the overall feedback system.

Blankenship, G. L.↗

Stochastic stability

The field of stochastic stability is surveyed, with emphasis on the invariance theorems and their potential application to systems with randomly varying coefficients. Some of the basic ideas are reviewed, which underlie the stochastic Liapunov function approach to stochastic stability. The invariance theorems are discussed in detail.

Kushner, H. J.↗

Further studies using matched filter theory and stochastic simulation for gust loads prediction

This paper describes two analysis methods - one deterministic, the other stochastic - for computing maximized and time-correlated gust loads for aircraft with nonlinear control systems. The first method is based on matched filter theory; the second is based on stochastic simulation. The paper summarizes the methods, discusses the selection of gust intensity for each method and presents numerical results. A strong similarity between the results from the two methods is seen to exist for both linear and nonlinear configurations.

Scott, Robert C.↗

Further studies using matched filter theory and stochastic simulation for gust loads prediction

This paper describes two analysis methods -- one deterministic, the other stochastic -- for computing maximized and time-correlated gust loads for aircraft with nonlinear control systems. The first method is based on matched filter theory; the second is based on stochastic simulation. The paper summarizes the methods, discusses the selection of gust intensity for each method and presents numerical results. A strong similarity between the results from the two methods is seen to exist for both linear and nonlinear configurations.

Scott, Robert C.↗

Interannual Variability of Martian Global Dust Storms: Simulations with a Low-Order Model of the General Circulation

We present simulations of the interannual variability of martian global dust storms (GDSs) with a simplified low-order model (LOM) of the general circulation. The simplified model allows one to conduct computationally fast long-term simulations of the martian climate system. The LOM is constructed by Galerkin projection of a 2D (zonally averaged) general circulation model (GCM) onto a truncated set of basis functions. The resulting LOM consists of 12 coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing atmospheric dynamics and dust transport within the Hadley cell. The forcing of the model is described by simplified physics based on Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction. The atmosphere and surface are coupled: atmospheric heating depends on the dustiness of the atmosphere, and the surface dust source depends on the strength of the atmospheric winds. Parameters of the model are tuned to fit the output of the NASA AMES GCM and the fit is generally very good. Interannual variability of GDSs is possible in the IBM, but only when stochastic forcing is added to the model. The stochastic forcing could be provided by transient weather systems or some surface process such as redistribution of the sand particles in storm generating zones on the surface. The results are sensitive to the value of the saltation threshold, which hints at a possible feedback between saltation threshold and dust storm activity. According to this hypothesis, erodable material builds up its a result of a local process, whose effect is to lower the saltation threshold until a GDS occurs. The saltation threshold adjusts its value so that dust storms are barely able to occur.

Pankine, A. A.↗

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

Jadaan, Osama↗

Stochastic Look-Ahead Commitment: A Case Study in MISO

This paper introduces the Stochastic Look Ahead Commitment (SLAC) software prototyped and tested for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) look ahead commitment process. SLAC can incorporate hundreds of wind, load, and net scheduled interchange (NSI) uncertainty scenarios. It uses a progressive hedging method to solve a novel two-stage stochastic unit commitment. The first stage commitment decisions, made only for those generators whose decision to commit or not in each time period cannot be deferred, can cover the uncertainties within the next three hours. The second stage includes both the dispatch for each of the scenarios and the commitment decisions that can be deferred. Study results on 15 MISO production days show that SLAC may bring economic and reliability benefits under uncertainty.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Adaptive Multi-Agent Systems for Constrained Optimization

Product Distribution (PD) theory is a new framework for analyzing and controlling distributed systems. Here we demonstrate its use for distributed stochastic optimization. First we review one motivation of PD theory, as the information-theoretic extension of conventional full-rationality game theory to the case of bounded rational agents. In this extension the equilibrium of the game is the optimizer of a Lagrangian of the (probability distribution of) the joint state of the agents. When the game in question is a team game with constraints, that equilibrium optimizes the expected value of the team game utility, subject to those constraints. The updating of the Lagrange parameters in the Lagrangian can be viewed as a form of automated annealing, that focuses the MAS more and more on the optimal pure strategy. This provides a simple way to map the solution of any constrained optimization problem onto the equilibrium of a Multi-Agent System (MAS). We present computer experiments involving both the Queen s problem and K-SAT validating the predictions of PD theory and its use for off-the-shelf distributed adaptive optimization.

Macready, William↗

Implicit learning of convective organization explains precipitation stochasticity

Accurate prediction of precipitation intensity is crucial for both human and natural systems, especially in a warming climate more prone to extreme precipitation. Yet, climate models fail to accurately predict precipitation intensity, particularly extremes. One missing piece of information in traditional climate model parameterizations is subgrid-scale cloud structure and organization, which affects precipitation intensity and stochasticity at coarse resolution. Here, using global storm-resolving simulations and machine learning, we show that, by implicitly learning subgrid organization, we can accurately predict precipitation variability and stochasticity with a low-dimensional set of latent variables. Using a neural network to parameterize coarse-grained precipitation, we find that the overall behavior of precipitation is reasonably predictable using large-scale quantities only; however, the neural network cannot predict the variability of precipitation (R 2 ~ 0.45) and underestimates precipitation extremes. The performance is significantly improved when the network is informed by our organization metric, correctly predicting precipitation extremes and spatial variability (R 2 ~ 0.9). The organization metric is implicitly learned by training the algorithm on a high-resolution precipitable water field, encoding the degree of subgrid organization. The organization metric shows large hysteresis, emphasizing the role of memory created by subgrid-scale structures. We demonstrate that this organization metric can be predicted as a simple memory process from information available at the previous time steps. These findings stress the role of organization and memory in accurate prediction of precipitation intensity and extremes and the necessity of parameterizing subgrid-scale convective organization in climate models to better project future changes of water cycle and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗