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At least 685 records · Page 38

Confidence bounds on structural reliability

Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

Mehta, S. R.↗

Measurement and calibration of differential Mueller matrix of distributed targets

A rigorous method for calibrating polarimetric backscatter measurements of distributed targets is presented. By characterizing the radar distortions over the entire mainlobe of the antenna, the differential Mueller matrix is derived from the measured scattering matrices with a high degree of accuracy. It is shown that the radar distortions can be determined by measuring the polarimetric response of a metallic sphere over the main lobe of the antenna. Comparison of results obtained with the new algorithm with the results derived from the old calibration method show that the discrepancy between the two methods is less than 1 dB for the backscattering coefficients. The discrepancy is more drastic for the phase-difference statistics, indicating that removal of the radar distortions from the cross products of the scattering matrix elements cannot be accomplished with the traditional calibration methods.

Sarabandi, Kamal↗

Assessing the Impact of Pre-gpm Microwave Precipitation Observations in the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

microwave observations↗

A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass field statistics

A model that yields the spatial correlation structure of atmospheric mass field forecast errors was developed. The model is governed by the potential vorticity equation forced by random noise. Expansion in spherical harmonics and correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. The finite difference equivalent was solved using a fast Poisson solver and the correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realization of F(omega) and hence of phi(omega). A higher order equation for gamma was derived and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast Poisson solver. The methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency and the third method was chosen as clearly superior. The results agree well with the latitude dependence of observed atmospheric correlation data. The value of the parameter c sub o which gives the best fit to the data is close to the value expected from dynamical considerations.

Ghil, M.↗

Results of a joint NOAA/NASA sounder simulation study

This paper presents the results of a joint NOAA and NASA sounder simulation study in which the accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles and surface skin temperature measuremnents retrieved from two sounders were compared: (1) the currently used IR temperature sounder HIRS2 (High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder 2); and (2) the recently proposed high-spectral-resolution IR sounder AMTS (Advanced Moisture and Temperature Sounder). Simulations were conducted for both clear and partial cloud conditions. Data were analyzed at NASA using a physical inversion technique and at NOAA using a statistical technique. Results show significant improvement of AMTS compared to HIRS2 for both clear and cloudy conditions. The improvements are indicated by both methods of data analysis, but the physical retrievals outperform the statistical retrievals.

Phillips, N.↗

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗

Evaluation of the Global Multi-Resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010) Using ICESat Geodetic Control

Supported by NASA's Earth Surface and Interior (ESI) Program, we are producing a global set of Ground Control Points (GCPs) derived from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) altimetry data. From February of 2003, to October of 2009, ICESat obtained nearly global measurements of land topography (+/- 86deg latitudes) with unprecedented accuracy, sampling the Earth's surface at discrete approx.50 m diameter laser footprints spaced 170 m along the altimetry profiles. We apply stringent editing to select the highest quality elevations, and use these GCPs to characterize and quantify spatially varying elevation biases in Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). In this paper, we present an evaluation of the soon to be released Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010). Elevation biases and error statistics have been analyzed as a function of land cover and relief. The GMTED2010 products are a large improvement over previous sources of elevation data at comparable resolutions. RMSEs for all products and terrain conditions are below 7 m and typically are about 4 m. The GMTED2010 products are biased upward with respect to the ICESat GCPs on average by approximately 3 m.

Carabajal, Claudia C.↗

Attitude and orbit estimation using stars and landmarks

An extended Kalman filter is used to process line-of-sight measurements to stars and known landmarks providing a statistical indication of performance in estimating spacecraft attitude, orbital ephemeris, and the bias drift of a set of three strapdown gyros. The landmark measurements were assumed to have been taken from the imagery of an Earth-observing multispectral scanner. It is shown that filtering of these noisy measurements results in highly accurate estimates of the above parameters. Results are given showing the sensitivity of performance to various system parameters such as star tracker accuracy, errors in the knowledge of landmark position, and number of stars and landmarks processed.

White, R. L.↗

Atmospheric water vapour over oceans from SSM/I measurements

A statistical retrieval technique is developed to derive the atmospheric water vapor column content from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. The radiometer signals are simulated by means of radiative-transfer calculations for a large set of atmospheric/oceanic situations. These simulated responses are subsequently summarized by multivariate analyses, giving water-vapor coefficients and error estimates. Radiative-transfer calculations show that the SSM/I microwave imager can detect atmospheric water vapor structures with an accuracy from 0.145 to 0.17 g/sq cm. The accuracy of the method is confirmed by globally distributed match-ups with radiosonde measurements.

Schluessel, Peter↗

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters From The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Thermal Bremsstrahlung

We discuss the possibility of constraining cosmological parameters using the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect and thermal bremsstrahlung caused by intra-cluster gas in clusters of galaxies. The new generation of X-ray satellites and ground based interferometers dedicated to SZ observations will enable one to reduce uncertainties in these measurements, and thus make this method potentially quite promising in the near future. The importance of this method is that, unlike most other methods, it is based on physical principles, no 'standard candles' or 'rulers' needed. We estimate the accuracy achievable in the determination of the matter density, OMEGA(sub m), the cosmological constant, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and the Hubble constant, h, using the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance derived from observations in the near future. We demonstrate that constraints from the angular diameter distance are orthogonal to those from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations in the parameter space defined by OMEGA(sub m), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and h. Assuming a statistical error of five percent in the angular diameter distance for each cluster in a sample of five hundred clusters, we show that the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance combined with constraints from CMB fluctuations can put stringent constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.03), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.03) and h (+/- 0.03, 3(sigma) errors). We also show that, with as few as 50 clusters between redshifts 0.01 and 1.5 with an assumed 10% statistical error in the angular diameter distance determination, one can distinguish between models with zero cosmological constant and spatially flat models with a cosmological constant with high confidence level (independently from the supernova results) and put meaningful constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.01), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.01) and h (+/- 0.01, 3(sigma) errors). With the expected advances in observational technology, we will be limited by systematic errors. We discuss the sources of systematic errors and how they can be reduced.

Molnar, S. M.↗

Evaluation of VIIRS and MODIS snow cover fraction in High-Mountain Asia using Landsat 8 OLI

We present thefirst application of the Snow Covered Area and Grain size model (SCAG) tothe Visible Infrared imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and assess these retrievals withfiner-resolution fractional snow cover maps from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI).Because Landsat 8 OLI avoids saturation issues common to Landsat 1–7 in the visiblewavelengths, we re-assess the accuracy of the SCAG fractional snow cover maps fromModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) that were previously evaluatedusing data from earlier Landsat sensors. Use of the fractional snow cover maps fromLandsat 8 OLI shows a negative bias of−0.5% for MODSCAG and−1.3% for VIIRSCAG,whereas previous MODSCAG evaluations found a bias of−7.6% in the Himalaya. Wefindsimilar root mean squared error (RMSE) values of 0.133 and 0.125 for MODIS and VIIRS,respectively. The Recall statistic (probability of detection) for cells with more than 15%snow cover in this challenging steep topography was found to be 0.90 for both MODSCAGand VIIRSCAG, significantly higher than previous evaluations based on Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM) and 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). In addition,daily retrievals from MODIS and VIIRS are consistent across gradients of elevation, slope,and aspect. Different native resolutions of the gridded products at 1 km and 500 m forVIIRS and MODIS, respectively, result in snow cover maps showing a slightly differentdistribution of values with VIIRS having more mixed pixels and MODIS having 7% morepure snow pixels. Despite the resolution differences, the snow maps from both sensorsproduce similar total snow-covered areas and snow-line elevations in this region, withR2values of 0.98 and 0.88, respectively. Wefind that the SCAG algorithm performsconsistently across various spatial resolutions and that fractional snow cover mapsfrom the VIIRS instruments aboard Suomi NPP, JPPS–1, and JPPS–2 can be asuitable replacement as MODIS sensors reach their ends of life.

Karl Rittger↗

The application of satellite data in the determination of ocean temperatures and cloud characteristics and statistics

The author has identified the following significant results. The major shortcoming of the data was the loss of the infrared radiances from the S191 spectrometer. The cloud thermodynamic phase determination procedure was derived and tested with the data collected by the S192 multispectral scanner. Results of the test indicate a large fraction of the data could be classified thermodynamically. An added bonus was the inclusion of snow in the classification approach. The conclusion to be drawn from this portion of the effort is that in most cases considered ice clouds, liquid water droplet clouds, and snow fields can be spectroscopically separated to a high degree of accuracy.

Curran, R. J.↗

Interpolation of a surface from sets of discrete height data of different statistical characteristics

This paper presents and analyzes a method for the interpolation of a unique surface from two sets of independent digital height data of differing statistical characteristics. This method is based on linear prediction and thus relies on the concepts of auto- and cross-covariance functions. The linear prediction algorithm for two sets of digital height measurements is first derived and then evaluated using the method of moving averages and bilinear interpolation for comparison. It is found that the overall root mean square interpolation errors of linear prediction are similar to those from moving averages and bilinear interpolation. This accuracy performance, together with the well known potential for controlled filtering of measuring errors and good-behavior in areas of poor control, makes linear prediction a versatile and general method for interpolating a unique surface from two sets of digital height data, with applications in photogrammetric mapping, remote sensing, and other fields.

Leberl, F.↗

Computations of Complex Three-Dimensional Turbulent Free Jets

Three-dimensional, incompressible turbulent jets with rectangular and elliptical cross-sections are simulated with a finite-difference numerical method. The full Navier- Stokes equations are solved at low Reynolds numbers, whereas at high Reynolds numbers filtered forms of the equations are solved along with a sub-grid scale model to approximate the effects of the unresolved scales. A 2-N storage, third-order Runge-Kutta scheme is used for temporary discretization and a fourth-order compact scheme is used for spatial discretization. Although such methods are widely used in the simulation of compressible flows, the lack of an evolution equation for pressure or density presents particular difficulty in incompressible flows. The pressure-velocity coupling must be established indirectly. It is achieved, in this study, through a Poisson equation which is solved by a compact scheme of the same order of accuracy. The numerical formulation is validated and the dispersion and dissipation errors are documented by the solution of a wide range of benchmark problems. Three-dimensional computations are performed for different inlet conditions which model the naturally developing and forced jets. The experimentally observed phenomenon of axis-switching is captured in the numerical simulation, and it is confirmed through flow visualization that this is based on self-induction of the vorticity field. Statistical quantities such as mean velocity, mean pressure, two-point velocity spatial correlations and Reynolds stresses are presented. Detailed budgets of the mean momentum and Reynolds stresses are presented. Detailed budgets of the mean momentum and Reynolds stress equations are presented to aid in the turbulence modeling of complex jets. Simulations of circular jets are used to quantify the effect of the non-uniform curvature of the non-circular jets.

Wilson, Robert V.↗

Statistical Classification of Biosignature Information using Multiple Instrument Observations

The accurate identification of biosignatures (indications of life) from data taken from remote or in situ planetary exploration is one of the most important challenges in astrobiology, the interdisciplinary field examining habitability and the potential for extraterrestrial life. This study employs machine learning algorithms to optimize the identification of biosignatures, with an emphasis on those which are agnostic to a specific biochemical basis. We exploit the wealth of terrestrial data available from biogenic and abiogenic systems to enhance efficient feature prioritization. Our dataset, pulled from public databases and laboratory recorded measurements, includes elemental abundance, isotopic fractionation, and VNIR/Raman spectra The data curation process included standardization for detection limits and ranges. Subsequent feature extraction yielded detailed inputs for machine learning, including combinations of elemental content, isotopic ratios, and parameters of spectral peaks and troughs. Feature significance was evaluated across diverse machine learning methodologies, such as k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, Random Forest, support vector machines, and Gaussian Naïve Bayes, along with a combined voting classifier. We utilized Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) across 2,000 50% test-train splits as a robust metric of model performance. Results revealed a promising ROC AUC of 0.853 for the combined voting classifier. Removing elemental abundance data notably reduced model accuracy (13% decrease in AUC), highlighting its critical role in biosignature detection. Several other individual data features exhibited significance within their respective data types, offering additional granularity. This research fortifies the relevance of machine learning to astrobiology, potentially enhancing life detection missions by allowing algorithmic prioritization of high-interest samples for further investigation. Future work will refine data standardization, expand the dataset to include more terrestrial systems, and incorporate convolutional neural networks for spectral feature extraction. The potential for public data sharing is also under exploration, reinforcing our commitment to collective scientific advancement.

Statistical↗

Detailed gravity anomalies from GEOS-3 satellite altimetry data

A technique for deriving mean gravity anomalies from dense altimetry data was developed. A combination of both deterministic and statistical techniques was used. The basic mathematical model was based on the Stokes' equation which describes the analytical relationship between mean gravity anomalies and geoid undulations at a point; this undulation is a linear function of the altimetry data at that point. The overdetermined problem resulting from the excessive altimetry data available was solved using Least-Squares principles. These principles enable the simultaneous estimation of the associated standard deviations reflecting the internal consistency based on the accuracy estimates provided for the altimetry data as well as for the terrestrial anomaly data. Several test computations were made of the anomalies and their accuracy estimates using GOES-3 data.

Gopalapillai, G. S.↗

Assimilation of Lidar Planetary Boundary Layer Height Observations

Lidar backscatter and wind retrievals of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) are assimilated into 22 hourly forecasts from the NASA Unified - Weather and Research Forecast (NU-WRF) model during the Plains Elevated Convection Convection at Night (PECAN) campaign on July 11, 2015 in Greensburg, Kansas, using error statistics collected from the model profiles to compute the necessary covariance matrices. Two separate forecast runs using different PBL physics schemes were employed, and comparisons with 6 independent radiosonde profiles were made for each run. Both of the forecast runs accurately predicted the PBLH and the state variable profiles within the planetary boundary layer during the early morning, and the assimilation had a small impact during this time. In the late afternoon, the forecast runs showed decreased accuracy as the convective boundary layer developed. However, assimilation of the Doppler lidar PBLH observations were found to improve the temperature and V velocity profiles relative to independent radiosonde profiles. Water vapor was overcorrected, leading to increased differences with independent data. Errors in the U velocity were made slightly larger. The computed forecast error covariances between the PBLH and state variables were found to rise in the late afternoon, leading to the larger improvements in the afternoon. This work represents the first effort to assimilate PBLH into forecast states using ensemble methods.

Andrew Tangborn↗

Differences between measured and linearly interpolated synoptic variables over a 12-h period during AVE 4

Results of analyses revealed that nonlinear changes or differences formed centers or systems, that were mesosynoptic in nature. These systems correlated well in space with upper level short waves, frontal zones, and radar observed convection, and were very systematic in time and space. Many of the centers of differences were well established in the vertical, extending up to the tropopause. Statistical analysis showed that on the average nonlinear changes were larger in convective areas than nonconvective regions. Errors often exceeding 100 percent were made by assuming variables to change linearly through a 12-h period in areas of thunderstorms, indicating that these nonlinear changes are important in the development of severe weather. Linear changes, however, accounted for more and more of an observed change as the time interval (within the 12-h interpolation period) increased, implying that the accuracy of linear interpolation increased over larger time intervals.

Dupuis, L. R.↗