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At least 685 records · Page 38

Rats use memory confidence to guide decisions

Memory enables access to past experiences to guide future behavior. Humans can determine which memories to trust (high confidence) and which to doubt (low confidence). How memory retrieval, memory confidence, and memory-guided decisions are related, however, is not understood. In particular, how confidence in memories is used in decision making is unknown. We developed a spatial memory task in which rats were incentivized to gamble their time: betting more following a correct choice yielded greater reward. Rat behavior reflected memory confidence, with higher temporal bets following correct choices. We applied machine learning to identify a memory decision variable and built a generative model of memories evolving over time that accurately predicted both choices and confidence reports. Our results reveal in rats an ability thought to exist exclusively in primates and introduce a unified model of memory dynamics, retrieval, choice, and confidence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A dynamic protein interactome drives energy conservation and electron flux in Thermococcus kodakarensis

ABSTRACT Life is supported by energy gains fueled by catabolism of a wide range of substrates, each reliant on the selective partitioning of electrons through redox ( red uction and ox idation) reactions. Electron flux through tunable and regulated protein interactions provides dynamic routes for energy conservation, but how electron flux is regulated in vivo , particularly for archaeal metabolisms that support rapid growth at the thermodynamic limits of life, is poorly understood. Identification of bona fide in vivo protein assemblies and how such assemblies dictate the totality of electron flux is critical to our understanding of the regulation imposed on metabolism, energy production, and energy conservation. Here, 25 key proteins in central metabolic redox pathways in the model, genetically accessible, hyperthermophilic archaeon Thermococcus kodakarensis , were purified to reveal an extensive, dynamic, and tightly interconnected network of protein interactions that responds to environmental cues (such as the availability of various reductive sinks) to direct electron flux to maximize energetic gains. Interactions connecting disparate functions suggest many catabolic and anabolic activities occur in spatial proximity in vivo , and while protein complexes have been historically defined under optimal conditions, many of these complexes appear to maintain alternative partnerships in changing conditions. The totality of the results obtained redefines our understanding of in vivo assemblies driving ancient metabolic strategies supporting the growth of modern Archaea. IMPORTANCE Given the potential for rational genetic manipulations of biofuel- and biotech-promising archaea to yield transformative results for major markets, it is a priority to define how the metabolisms of such species are controlled, at least in part, by in vivo protein assemblies, and from such, define routes of energy flux that can be most efficiently altered toward biofuel or biotechnological gains. Proteinaceous electron carriers (PECs, such as ferredoxins) offer the potential for specific protein–protein interactions to coordinate selective reductive flow. Employing the model, genetically accessible, hyperthermophilic archaeon, Thermococcus kodakarensis , we establish the metabolic protein interactome of 25 key redox proteins, revealing that each redox active protein has a dynamic partnership profile, suggesting catabolic and anabolic activities may occur in concert and in temporal and spatial proximity in vivo . These results reveal critical importance in evaluating the newly identified partnerships and their role and utility in providing regulated redox flux in T. kodakarensis .

Williams, Sere A. (ORCID:0000000235509590)↗

Accounting for Training Data Error in Machine Learning Applied to Earth Observations

Remote sensing, or Earth Observation (EO), is increasingly used to understand Earth system dynamics and create continuous and categorical maps of biophysical properties and land cover, especially based on recent advances in machine learning (ML). ML models typically require large, spatially explicit training datasets to make accurate predictions. Training data (TD) are typically generated by digitizing polygons on high spatial-resolution imagery, by collecting in situ data, or by using pre-existing datasets. TD are often assumed to accurately represent the truth, but in practice almost always have error, stemming from (1) sample design, and (2) sample collection errors. The latter is particularly relevant for image-interpreted TD, an increasingly commonly used method due to its practicality and the increasing training sample size requirements of modern ML algorithms. TD errors can cause substantial errors in the maps created using ML algorithms, which may impact map use and interpretation. Despite these potential errors and their real-world consequences for map-based decisions, TD error is often not accounted for or reported in EO research. Here we review the current practices for collecting and handling TD. We identify the sources of TD error, and illustrate their impacts using several case studies representing different EO applications (infrastructure mapping, global surface flux estimates, and agricultural monitoring), and provide guidelines for minimizing and accounting for TD errors. To harmonize terminology, we distinguish TD from three other classes of data that should be used to create and assess ML models: training reference data, used to assess the quality of TD during data generation; validation data, used to iteratively improve models; and map reference data, used only for final accuracy assessment. We focus primarily on TD, but our advice is generally applicable to all four classes, and we ground our review in established best practices for map accuracy assessment literature. EO researchers should start by determining the tolerable levels of map error and appropriate error metrics. Next, TD error should be minimized during sample design by choosing a representative spatio-temporal collection strategy, by using spatially and temporally relevant imagery and ancillary data sources during TD creation, and by selecting a set of legend definitions supported by the data. Furthermore, TD error can be minimized during the collection of individual samples by using consensus-based collection strategies, by directly comparing interpreted training observations against expert-generated training reference data to derive TD error metrics, and by providing image interpreters with thorough application-specific training. We strongly advise that TD error is incorporated in model outputs, either directly in bias and variance estimates or, at a minimum, by documenting the sources and implications of error. TD should be fully documented and made available via an open TD repository, allowing others to replicate and assess its use. To guide researchers in this process, we propose three tiers of TD error accounting standards. Finally, we advise researchers to clearly communicate the magnitude and impacts of TD error on map outputs, with specific consideration given to the likely map audience.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gene-informed decomposition model predicts lower soil carbon loss due to persistent microbial adaptation to warming

Abstract Soil microbial respiration is an important source of uncertainty in projecting future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, its feedbacks to climate warming and underlying microbial mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here we show that the temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration ( Q 10 ) in a temperate grassland ecosystem persistently decreases by 12.0 ± 3.7% across 7 years of warming. Also, the shifts of microbial communities play critical roles in regulating thermal adaptation of soil respiration. Incorporating microbial functional gene abundance data into a microbially-enabled ecosystem model significantly improves the modeling performance of soil microbial respiration by 5–19%, and reduces model parametric uncertainty by 55–71%. In addition, modeling analyses show that the microbial thermal adaptation can lead to considerably less heterotrophic respiration (11.6 ± 7.5%), and hence less soil C loss. If such microbially mediated dampening effects occur generally across different spatial and temporal scales, the potential positive feedback of soil microbial respiration in response to climate warming may be less than previously predicted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A renewable double plasma mirror for Petawatt-class lasers

Exceptional pulse contrast can be critical for ultraintense laser experiments, particularly when using solid density targets, and their use is becoming widespread. However, current plasma mirror technology is becoming inadequate for the new generation of high repetition rate, high power lasers now available. We describe a novel double plasma mirror configuration based on renewable, free standing, ultrathin liquid crystal films tested at the BELLA Petawatt Laser Center. Although operating at a repetition rate of several shots per minute, this system can be scaled to a high repetition rate exceeding 1 Hz and represents an important step towards enabling sustained, continuous operation of plasma mirrors. We demonstrate an improvement of two to three orders of magnitude in contrast and a total throughput of 80%. We present the first measurements of a beam reflected from a single or double plasma mirror system using a wavefront sensor, showing a well preserved wavefront and spatial mode. Finally, we introduce a model that predicts the total throughput through this double plasma mirror. This is the first model that accurately predicts the peak reflectivity of a plasma mirror when given the laser temporal profile.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

WHOLESCALE: Seismic Survey Metadata from San Emidio Nevada 2021

This is a collection of metadata from the 2021 seismic survey at the San Emidio geothermal field in Nevada. In April and May 2021, 37 tri-axial short period seismographs were deployed in a 1.8km diameter cluster centered on 40.367278 deg N, 119.409019 deg W. The first data record started at 2021-04-06T07:09:10Z UTC and the last record ended 2021-05-11T02:58:52Z UTC. The 37 stations included 29 SmartSolo IGU-16HR 3C all-in-one 5 Hz seismographs and 8 DataCube seismographs with 4.5 Hz HGS HG-6(B coil) tri-axial geophones. The raw format (level 0) data includes 353 GB of 500 sps SmartSolo data in native DLD format, 113 GB of 400 sps DataCube data in native DataCube format, and 3.4 GB of GPS data collected during the RTK GPS survey. The SAC data (level 1) files include 564 GB of hourly SAC files. The experiment was designed to monitor seismic activity before, during, and after the planned three-day plant maintenance shutdown April 19-21, 2021. The pumping stopped at 2021/04/19 12:51:45 UTC and resumed about 2021/04/21 21:00:00 UTC. The raw and processed data are in an associated GDR submission, linked below. The metadata here includes files containing experiment details, station locations, seismic data logger specifications, instrumentation specifications, and descriptions of data. Also included are data and metadata from a 2016 seismic survey at the same site.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Addressing tokens dynamic generation, propagation, storage and renewal to secure the GlideinWMS pilot based jobs and system

GlideinWMS has been one of the first middleware in the WLCG community to transition from X.509 to support also tokens. The first step was to get from the prototype in 2019 to using tokens in production in 2022. This paper will present the challenges introduced by the wider adoption of tokens and the evolution plans for securing the pilot infrastructure of GlideinWMS and supporting the new requirements. In the last couple of years, the GlideinWMS team supported the migration to tokens of experiments and resources. Inadequate support in the current infrastructure, more stringent requirements, and the higher spatial and temporal granularity forced GlideinWMS to revisit once more how credentials are generated, used, and propagated. The new credential modules have been designed to be used in multiple systems (GWMS, HC) and use a model where credentials have type, purpose, and different flows. Credentials are dynamically generated in order to customize the duration and limit the scope to the targeted resource. This allows to enforce the least privilege principle. Finally, we also considered adding credential storage, renewal, and invalidation mechanisms within the GlideinWMS infrastructure to serve better the experiments’ needs.

Mambelli, Marco↗

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Addressing tokens dynamic generation, propagation, storage and renewal to secure the GlideinWMS pilot based jobs and system

GlideinWMS has been one of the first middleware in the WLCG community to transition from X.509 to support also tokens. The first step was to get from the prototype in 2019 to using tokens in production in 2022. This paper will present the challenges introduced by the wider adoption of tokens and the evolution plans for securing the pilot infrastructure of GlideinWMS and supporting the new requirements. In the last couple of years, the GlideinWMS team supported the migration of experiments and resources to tokens. Inadequate support in the current infrastructure, more stringent requirements, and the higher spatial and temporal granularity forced GlideinWMS to revisit once more how credentials are generated, used, and propagated. The new credential modules have been designed to be used in multiple systems (GlideinWMS, HEPCloud) and use a model where credentials have type, purpose, and different flows. Credentials are dynamically generated in order to customize the duration and limit the scope to the targeted resource. This allows to enforce the least privilege principle. Finally, we also considered adding credential storage, renewal, and invalidation mechanisms within the GlideinWMS infrastructure to better serve the experiments' needs.

Coimbra, Bruno Moreira [Fermilab] (ORCID:000900022↗

Theory and modeling of molecular modes in the NMR relaxation of fluids

Traditional theories of the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) autocorrelation function for intra-molecular dipole pairs assume a single-exponential decay, yet the calculated autocorrelation of realistic systems displays a rich, multi-exponential behavior, resulting in anomalous NMR relaxation dispersion (i.e., frequency dependence). We develop an approach to model and interpret the multi-exponential intra-molecular autocorrelation using simple, physical models within a rigorous statistical mechanical development that encompasses both rotational diffusion and translational diffusion in the same framework. Here, we recast the problem of evaluating the autocorrelation in terms of averaging over a diffusion propagator whose evolution is described by a Fokker–Planck equation. The time-independent part admits an eigenfunction expansion, allowing us to write the propagator as a sum over modes. Each mode has a spatial part that depends on the specified eigenfunction and a temporal part that depends on the corresponding eigenvalue (i.e., correlation time) with a simple, exponential decay. The spatial part is a probability distribution of the dipole pair, analogous to the stationary states of a quantum harmonic oscillator. Drawing inspiration from the idea of inherent structures in liquids, we interpret each of the spatial contributions as a specific molecular mode. These modes can be used to model and predict the NMR dipole–dipole relaxation dispersion of fluids by incorporating phenomena on the molecular level. We validate our statistical mechanical description of the distribution in molecular modes with molecular dynamics simulations interpreted without any relaxation models or adjustable parameters: the most important poles in the Padé–Laplace transform of the simulated autocorrelation agree with the eigenvalues predicted by the theory

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO 2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 sink with lower net CO 2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: -52 g C m -2 y -1 ) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: -5 to -9 g C m -2 y -1 ). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m -2 y -1 ). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO 2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bias Characterization, Vertical Interpolation, and Horizontal Interpolation for Distributed Wind Siting Using Mesoscale Wind Resource Estimates

Much like their counterparts in utility-scale wind energy, developers of industrial, small-scale and distributed wind turbine deployments need to understand and accurately characterize the wind resource to properly assess the power generation and financial ramifications during siting and planning. National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s WIND (Wind Integration National Dataset) Toolkit (WTK) provides a best-in-class wind resource dataset generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This dataset includes parameters such as the wind speed, wind direction, and temperature at various heights, plus atmospheric stability near the surface. This data is available at 2-km spatial resolution and five-minute temporal resolution across 7 years, from 2007 to 2013 through a publicly accessible API interface. The Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project seeks to extend this dataset to allow long term resource estimates and leverage it to better equip distributed wind equipment manufacturers, owner-operators, and installation professionals with better tools for practical siting applications. In this report, we present the results from our investigation within the TAP project focused on characterization of bias in WTK-based wind speed estimates and evaluation of vertical and horizontal interpolation techniques. We discuss the tradeoffs between different techniques and their combinations, as well as describe the lower bounds we determine for the studied validation errors. While the specific estimates we present are specific to WTK and the validation dataset we have chosen for this investigation (NREL's Wind Resource Meteorological Database), the overall analysis and the studied techniques are general enough to be applied to a broader set of wind datasets, both simulation-based and observational.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Applying the Gyrokinetic Formulation of Magnetized Plasma Dynamics to Z-pinch plasmas

This project adapts and applies the gyrokinetic Eulerian code COGENT to an emerging area of highly-magnetized Z-pinch plasma systems. Simulation efforts for these plasmas currently use either magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) fluid codes, which suffer from fidelity being restricted to narrow plasma conditions, or fully kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) methods, which suffer from the run-time needed to resolve the very small spatial and temporal scales required for the plasma conditions. The progress with achieving detailed theoretical understanding of Z-pinch plasma systems can be greatly expedited using some combination of gyrokinetic and drift-ordered MHD models, developed in the tokamak community and implemented in the COGENT code. These formulations are applicable to a much larger parameter space than standard MHD models, while providing a substantial speed-up in run-time over fully kinetic codes. In particular, the gyrokinetic formalism is successfully applied to a flow-stabilized Z pinch (FSZP) system – a promising fusion concept where a sheared axial flow is used to provide stability against large-scale ideal-MHD modes. Results of gyrokinetic simulations with COGENT agree well with those from fully kinetic simulations, while requiring ~500x less run-time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Crush Gun Impact of Lightly Confined Explosive with Rounded Projectiles at Nominal Velocity 35 m/s

Blunt, crushing impact of high explosives can cause internal shear heating sufficient to ignite a deflagration. Low-velocity impact of this sort is plausible in handling accident scenarios, e.g. if a charge is dropped or an object is dropped onto a charge. This mechanism can also be activated during sub-shock fragment impact. Efforts to model this viscous shear heating mechanism are currently being developed and refined. The Crush Gun apparatus was created to provide a controlled low-velocity impact stimuli to explosive samples. Infrared thermography captures temporal- and spatially-resolved heating that occurs during the impact event.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km 2 . The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Multi-Source Data for Bi-Level Traffic Simulator Calibration: A Literature Review and Highway Case Study

Traffic simulation serves as a powerful tool for pre-evaluating policies and technologies. In this context, simulation-based Dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models are capable of capturing traffic dynamics. They are well-known as critical tools in controlling and predicting traffic situations. The reliability of simulation results heavily depends on the calibration process. Most studies in the literature formulate and calibrate simulators based on a single source of collected data or multiple data sets with the same spatiotemporal characteristics. However, in practice, traffic data is collected by various tools with usually different spatial and temporal resolutions. This study introduces a novel approach to taking into account diverse input data from a variety of sources. An iterative bi-level solution is proposed. to equally treat traffic flow and speed data. The upper level solves flow calibration with the exact solution method, and the lower level calibrates the speed with the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Subsequently, the effectiveness of the proposed model is investigated using data from a six-mile section of Nashville's I-24 highway in Tennessee. The results demonstrate that our proposed model creates an effective feedback loop between the optimizer and the simulator for calibrating flow and speed to reduce the error between simulated and real data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessment of Updraft Modeling Bias Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) habitats may overlap with wind energy development in some regions of the US. Eagles, and similar soaring bird species, are therefore at risk of collision with wind turbines when flying through wind farms. Recently developed behavioral modeling approaches can predict the presence of eagles near turbines within the rotor-swept layer but require reliable prediction of atmospheric flowfield conditions. In particular, the vertical component of the wind speed dictates a soaring bird's ability to maintain or gain altitude, since they rely on updrafts to subsidize their flight. In this work, we investigate the atmospheric conditions around a wind farm in complex terrain and compare methods for atmospheric characterization. We use computational fluid dynamics (specifically, large-eddy simulations, or LES) to simulate the atmospheric boundary layer over a region encompassing multiple wind farms with high temporal and spatial resolution (seconds and 10's of meters, respectively). We compare traditional non-simulation-based methods of determining the orographic updraft potential based on wind direction, terrain slope and aspect, with the flowfields from LES that include both orographic updrafts alone and combined thermal and orographic updrafts. Preliminary analysis suggests that although the model captures the horizontal pattern of vertical updrafts, their magnitude can be improved with information about the surface heat flux, which is usually correlated with time of the day. Within our study region, we found that the low-fidelity model may over- or underestimate updraft potential by up to 400% at 80 m AGL, depending on local orographic features. This can result in an inaccurate representation of eagle presence and, consequently, risk. Another important finding is that flowfield time-averaging can hide important details about the flight environment, including how thermally generated flow structures within the atmospheric boundary layer (e.g., convective rolls and/or cells) may be important drivers of eagle flight.

atmospheric turbulence↗