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At least 685 records · Page 38

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗

Direct numerical simulations of activation and deactivation in turbulent atmospheric clouds

Significant knowledge gaps remain in our understanding of turbulence–cloud–aerosol interactions in the Earth's atmosphere, and direct numerical simulation (DNS) has increasingly become an indispensable tool to fill such critical knowledge gaps. Here, this study is an extension of our previous DNS model [Gao et al., J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 123(4), 2194–2214 (2018)], with a focus on the activation of aerosol particles into cloud droplets and deactivation of cloud droplets into aerosol particles in a microscale cloud environment. The effects of turbulence intensity, particle curvature, and solute, as well as the initial distributions of the aerosol particles (monodisperse or polydisperse) are investigated. The governing equations for the flow of air, temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio are solved numerically in the Eulerian fashion, assuming homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. The dynamics of the aerosol and cloud particles are calculated with the Lagrangian particle tracking method. The results show that the deviations of the thermodynamic variables from their respective means are significantly reduced, the activation process appears to be delayed, and the deactivation process occurs more rapidly, as the turbulence intensity is increased. The inclusion of particle curvature and solute effects, as well as polydispersity, tends to retard the activation of aerosols into cloud droplets. It is also observed that fluctuations in supersaturation broaden the spread of particle radii, and the broadening is followed by a narrowing as turbulent homogenization reduces thermodynamic fluctuations over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing the formation of ionic defects to study the ice Ih/XI transition with molecular dynamics simulations

Ice Ih, the common form of ice in the biosphere, contains proton disorder. Its proton-ordered counterpart, ice XI, is thermodynamically stable below 72 K. However, the formation of ice XI is kinetically hindered, and experimentally it is obtained by doping with KOH. Doping creates ionic defects that promote the migration of protons and the associated change in proton configuration. In this article, we mimic the effect of doping with a bias potential that enhances the formation of ionic defects in molecular dynamics simulations. The recombination of the ions thus formed proceeds through fast migration of the hydroxide along hydrogen bond loops, providing a physical and expedite way to change the proton configuration. Here, a key ingredient of this approach is a machine learning potential trained with density functional theory data and capable of modelling molecular dissociation. We exemplify the usefulness of this idea by studying the order-disorder transition using an appropriate order parameter that distinguishes the proton environments in ice Ih and XI. We calculate the changes in free energy, enthalpy, and entropy associated with the transition. Our estimated entropy agrees with experiment within the error bars of the calculation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Overview of recent observations and simulations from the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) field campaign

The American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) is a large-scale field campaign focused on gathering new detailed observations of wind farm–atmosphere interactions for improved understanding of wind farm physics and overall performance. The field campaign, centered around five wind farms in northern Oklahoma, began in September 2022 and will run through at least October 2023. This paper summarizes some of the initial observations and simulations performed as part of the AWAKEN project.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Reinventing atomic magnetic simulations with spin-orbit coupling

We propose a powerful extension to the combined molecular and spin dynamics method that fully captures the coupling between the atomic and spin subsystems via spin-orbit interactions. Moreover, the foundation of this method lies in the inclusion of the local magnetic anisotropies that arise as a consequence of the lattice symmetry breaking due to phonons or crystallographic defects. By using canonical simulations of bcc iron with the system coupled to a phonon heat bath, we show that our extension enables the previously unachievable angular momentum exchange between the atomic and spin degrees of freedom.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Simulation–Extrapolation for Bias Correction with Exposure Uncertainty in Radiation Risk Analysis Utilizing Grouped Data

Summary In observational epidemiological studies, the exposure that is received by an individual often cannot be precisely observed, resulting in measurement error, and a common approach to dealing with measurement error is regression calibration (RC). Use of RC, which requires assumptions about the distribution of unknown error-free (true) variables, leads to concern about the possibility of bias due to misspecification of that distribution. The simulation–extrapolation (SIMEX) method, in contrast, does not require a distributional assumption. However, analyses of large cohorts may be performed by using grouped or person-year data, and application of SIMEX to grouped data is not straightforward, particularly when there is a mixture of classical and Berkson measurement errors. We compared RC and SIMEX with grouped data analyses to assess robustness of the RC method to misspecification of the true dose distribution. We also applied SIMEX assuming mixtures of classical and Berkson errors and compared the results with those obtained by using RC for classical error only. SIMEX had less bias than RC and performed well regardless of the true dose distribution, whereas RC based on a misspecified true dose distribution showed greater bias than when based on the correctly specified true dose distribution.

Misumi, Munechika↗

Parallel simulated annealing with embedded machine learning and multifidelity models for reactor core design

This paper presents extensions to a penalty-free, parallel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm for multi-constrained combinatorial optimization with the aim of embedding multi-fidelity physics models into the annealing procedure. The method uses a low-fidelity, quickly executing model for rapid design space exploration and a high-fidelity model for detailed constraint resolution and on-the-fly bias correction. Machine learning models updated within the annealing procedure were used to bridge the gap between the multi-fidelity models, which led to accurate rapid exploration and efficient detailed constraint resolution. A software implementation of the new multi-fidelity optimization methods, called ML-PSA, was demonstrated on a continuous multi-fidelity optimization problem and a constrained combinatorial PWR lattice design problem. These problems demonstrate some of the features, parallel performance characteristics, and extensible nature of the multi-fidelity SA methods. This paper shows that the developed software and procedure are a general optimization tool that can be applied to a wide variety of scientific and engineering design optimization applications. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Risk Reduction of CO 2 Storage with Stochastic Simulations

The purpose of this project was to create an efficient and flexible tool based on principal component analysis (PCA) for a generation of differentiable realizations of porosity and permeability fields. Of particular interest were data which had significant connectivity between patches of the same rock type, which is called “binary”. The efficiency requirement needed a so called kernel PCA, and the binary images were found with the method called optimization based PCA (OPCA) for which interpretation is provided. The ability to honor given data at particular locations is also incorporated. The tool worked very well and efficiently for two dimensional (2-D) simulations. Furthermore, the tool was applied to a three-dimensional (3-D) dataset and determined that conditioning can be used to maintain the connectivity between vertical layers.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Simulation of Chilled-water Injection at EGS Collab Testbed 2 using the GEOS simulation framework

This work seeks to model the chilled-water injection that occurred at EGS Collab Testbed 2 as part of experiment 3, using the open-source GEOS simulation framework. Modeling of this process, previously conducted using STOMP-GT, confirmed that thermal breakthrough was expected to occur during the chill water injection and may have been masked by strong Joule-Thompsons effects induced by large pressure drops between the fractures and the production wells. Building a GEOS numerical model of this process will allow to include additional physics. In fact, GEOS can model fully coupled thermo-poromechanical processes in fractured porous media and can be employed to model the process of artificially enhancing rock permeability by hydraulically fracturing the rocks. For example, the GEOS model could help understanding the dynamic nature of the EGS collab experiment 3 flow system. Since the limited time and resources do not allow for an extensive study, the focus is on building a baseline model of this process. As such, the main outcomes of this modelling efforts are listed below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Simulating Superconducting Devices in Novel Materials Using the G4CMP Simulation Toolkit

Understanding the kinematics of phonons and charge propagation in superconducting devices is crucial for conducting low-threshold dark matter searches and minimizing correlated errors in superconducting qubits. For nearly a decade, the Geant4 Condensed Matter Physics (G4CMP) package, originally developed for the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS) experiment, has been limited to simulating charge and phonon transport in silicon and germanium materials. In this work, we have expanded the capabilities of G4CMP to include novel substrate materials such as sapphire (Al2O3), Gallium Arsenide (GaAs), Lithium Fluoride (LiF), Calcium Tungstate (CaWO4), and Calcium Fluoride (CaF2). We demonstrate the use of this toolkit in generating phonon transport properties for these materials and compare the results with experimentally determined values where available. Additionally, we explore the performance of superconducting devices utilizing these materials.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Simulation of 15% and 50% Thermal Power Dispatch to an Industrial Facility Using a Flexible Generic Full-Scope Pressurized Water Reactor Plant Simulator

Nuclear power plants in the United States are increasingly challenged to compete in wholesale electricity markets due to the low electricity costs and increasingly dynamic grid conditions from competing generation sources. An alternative market for nuclear power is industrial facilities that can use the thermal and/or electrical power generated by a nuclear power plant to offset the economic losses incurred by electricity market challenges. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) simulator was used to show the results of a basic design for a generic thermal power extraction system and tests were run using a set of procedures to show what happens when a nuclear power plant transitions from full electrical power dispatch to 15% and 50% thermal power dispatch. This type of operation leads to losses in turbine performance efficiency due to the deviation from the design operating point, but because the thermal power is also used by the industry load without conversion losses, the combined thermal efficiency of the PWR increases. For the 15% case, the thermal efficiency increased from 32% to 41.9%, while for the 50% case, the efficiency increased up to 60.1%. In addition, for 50% thermal power dispatch, the power dissipated by the condenser decreased from approximately 2000 to approximately 1300 MW (thermal), indicating a substantially diminished impact on the environment in terms of releasing heat into the cooling water reservoir.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Molecular Dynamics Free Energy Simulations Reveal the Mechanism for the Antiviral Resistance of the M66I HIV-1 Capsid Mutation

While drug resistance mutations can often be attributed to the loss of direct or solvent-mediated protein−ligand interactions in the drug-mutant complex, in this study we show that a resistance mutation for the picomolar HIV-1 capsid (CA)-targeting antiviral (GS-6207) is mainly due to the free energy cost of the drug-induced protein side chain reorganization in the mutant protein. Among several mutations, M66I causes the most suppression of the GS-6207 antiviral activity (up to ~84,000-fold), and only 83- and 68-fold reductions for PF74 and ZW-1261, respectively. To understand the molecular basis of this drug resistance, we conducted molecular dynamics free energy simulations to study the structures, energetics, and conformational free energy landscapes involved in the inhibitors binding at the interface of two CA monomers. To minimize the protein−ligand steric clash, the I66 side chain in the M66I−GS-6207 complex switches to a higher free energy conformation from the one adopted in the apo M66I. In contrast, the binding of GS-6207 to the wild-type CA does not lead to any significant M66 conformational change. Based on an analysis that decomposes the absolute binding free energy into contributions from two receptor conformational states, it appears that it is the free energy cost of side chain reorganization rather than the reduced protein−ligand interaction that is largely responsible for the drug resistance against GS-6207.

Sun, Qinfang (ORCID:0000000173621543)↗

General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗