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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Verification of Lumped-Parameter, Multibody Structural Dynamics for Offshore Wind Turbines

This paper presents the modeling and verification of multibody structural dynamics for offshore wind turbines. The flexible tower and support structure of a monopile-based offshore wind turbine are modeled using an acausal, lumped-parameter, multibody approach that incorporates structural flexibility, soil-structure interaction, and hydrodynamic models. Simulation results are benchmarked against alternative modeling approaches, demonstrating the model's ability to accurately capture both static and dynamic behaviors under various wind and wave conditions while maintaining computational efficiency. This work provides a valuable tool for analyzing key structural characteristics of wind turbines, including eigenfrequencies, mode shapes, damping, and internal forces.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Cloud‐Base Ice Precipitation Properties Retrieved Using Bayesian Inference

Abstract Cloud‐climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long‐lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud‐base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. Here I describe an inverse model for the estimation of cloud base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, using the synthesis of ground‐based radar and lidar measurements. By leveraging a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm as the core of the inverse model, a wide range of particle size distributions are sampled, and different combinations of ice habit models are examined, both of which are typically fixed in other retrieval methods. Results show intriguing links between different cloud base thermodynamic and ice precipitation properties. Apparent ice number concentration enhancements at temperatures of −5 and −15°C suggest possible secondary ice production (SIP). The analysis alludes to an overestimation of SIP occurrence and intensity, especially in studies relying only on radar or lidar measurements. Finally, reflectivity‐dependent ice precipitation rate and ice water content parameterizations are presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interconnection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process

Recent research has revealed a correlation within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations: models exhibiting more pronounced warming due to positive cloud feedback simultaneously show enhanced cooling from aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI). However, the interplay between ACI and cloud feedback is not well understood in these models. Our study addresses this gap by modifying the autoconversion rate in two Earth system models (ESMs), elucidating how ACI could connect with cloud feedback through the warm rain process. We find that higher autoconversion rates, which are associated with stronger ACI, suppress the increase in cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical depth with warming by enhancing the precipitation efficiency over the extratropical regions, leading to a larger positive cloud feedback. This study offers new insights into the compensatory mechanism between ACI and cloud feedback through the warm rain process and highlights the importance of constraining the autoconversion parameterization in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monthly hydropower generation data for Western Canada to support Western-US interconnect power system studies

Hydroelectric power generation in Western Canada significantly contributes to power grid operations of the North American Western Interconnection through substantial generation, some of which is exported to the United States (U.S.). However, the lack of publicly available hydropower generation datasets poses challenges for future market projections and resource adequacy evaluations. We present a simulation-based monthly power system model-ready hydropower generation dataset for 110 facilities in British Columbia and Alberta from 1981 to 2019. These monthly hydropower generation estimates are developed from integrated hydrologic model simulations of runoff and reservoir-operated streamflow, followed by scaling that considers diversion inflow constraints based on hydropower water license information. To address the lack of comparable hydropower generation records, we conduct step-by-step evaluations for simulated runoff, regulated streamflow, and hydropower generation using available observations or estimates. The presented hydropower dataset aims to enhance the representation of hydropower resources in Western Canada, supporting power grid system studies for the Western Interconnection of the U.S. and Canada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cropbox: a declarative crop modelling framework

Abstract We introduce Cropbox, a novel modelling framework that supports various aspects of crop modelling in a unique yet concise style. Building a crop model can be easily riddled with technical details looking trivial at first but later becoming major obstacles that hamper the whole development or application process. This is particularly the case when implementing models from scratch without relying on an established framework. Cropbox adopts a declarative approach providing a domain-specific language to reduce technical debt and assist modellers to focus on high-level abstraction formed by relations between variables and enclosing systems, rather than tinkering with low-level implementation details. The syntax of Cropbox framework is based on the Julia programming language and is deliberately constrained to avoid unintended side effects caused by common mistakes while its architecture remains open to extension. We highlight key capabilities of the framework through case studies featuring a leaf gas-exchange model and a whole-plant simulation model. We also illustrate potential extensions for supporting functional-structural plant modelling by demonstrating a 3D root architectural model as an example.

Yun, Kyungdahm (ORCID:0000000322894386)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Generation of Ocean Forcing With Spatiotemporal Variability for Ice Sheet Models

Melting of ice at the base of floating ice shelves that fringe the Antarctic ice sheet has been identified as a significant source of uncertainty in sea level rise projections. Part of this uncertainty derives from chaotic internal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. For numerical ice sheet model projections, this uncertainty has not previously been quantified because of the prohibitive computational expense of running large climate model ensembles. Here, we develop and demonstrate a technique that generates independent realizations of internal climate variability from a single climate model simulation. Building on previous developments in model emulation, this technique uses empirical orthogonal function decomposition and Fourier-phase randomization to generate statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal variability fields for the target climate variable. The method facilitates efficient sampling of a wide range of climate trajectories, which can also be incorporated within ice sheet or other physical models to represent feedback processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry

Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast-Spectrum Critical Assemblies with a Pb-HEU Core Surrounded by a Copper Reflector

The Department of Energy invests tens of millions of dollars each year to develop the next generation of nuclear engineering modeling & simulation (M&S) tools. These M&S tools are used to analyze advanced reactor designs and the safety of current nuclear operations. As computers become more powerful, we are able to enhance resolution in our calculations. This improved resolution is taking us to a point where the limitations of simulation capability are in the quality of data, including our ability to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the data. In order to accurately model systems of interest, the industry must improve key nuclear data measurements and our confidence of how well we understand the data. Thus, M&S tools need evaluated and quality-assured experimental data for validation purposes. The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) compiles benchmark experiment data in a handbook that can be used by criticality safety engineers to validate computer codes and cross-section libraries at nuclear facilities. Both critical and subcritical experiments are included in the handbook. Figure 1 organizes all the benchmark evaluations that have been performed by the isotope of interest, in this case Pb, and the neutron energy within the system. Compared to other isotopes of interest for nuclear applications, there are few benchmark evaluations for Pb systems. This has caused the latest nuclear cross-section libraries to over/underestimate changes in the neutron population compared to experimental results. Therefore, this evaluation fills an important knowledge gap in benchmark evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal compensation of molded silicone optics

Optical grade silicone has various properties that make it attractive for solar concentrators, such as excellent transmission across the solar spectrum and flexible moldability for freeform profiles. In this study, a glass–silicone lens structure is proposed to reduce the optothermal effect on the silicone lens. Experimental measurements and simulation modeling results demonstrate that the focal length sensitivity of the glass–silicone lens with respect to temperature can be reduced by a factor of 10 when compared to a silicone lens alone. This model has been extended to the simulation of a proposed two-stage silicone solar concentrator, consisting of an array of acylindrical lenslets and rows of waveguides that focus light onto microphotovoltaic cells. The optical efficiency of the solar concentration system showed a change of less than 10% compared to the efficiency at room temperature for temperature changes from − <#comment/> 10 ∘ <#comment/> C to 70°C.

Lyons, Nicholas P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Confinement performance predictions for a high field axisymmetric tandem mirror

This paper presents Hammir tandem mirror confinement performance analysis based on Realta Fusion's first-of-a-kind model for axisymmetric magnetic mirror fusion performance. This model uses an integrated end plug simulation model including, heating, equilibrium, and transport combined with a new formulation of the plasma operation contours (POPCONs) technique for the tandem mirror central cell. Using this model in concert with machine learning optimization techniques, it is shown that an end plug utilizing high temperature superconducting magnets and modern neutral beams enables a classical tandem mirror pilot plant producing a fusion gain Q > 5. The approach here represents an important advance in tandem mirror design. The high fidelity end plug model enables calculations of heating and transport in the highly non-Maxwellian end plug to be made more accurately. The detailed end plug modelling performed in this work has highlighted the importance of classical radial transport and neutral beam absorption efficiency on end plug viability. The central cell POPCON technique allows consideration of a wide range of parameters in the relatively simple near-Maxwellian central cell, facilitating the selection of more optimal central cell plasmas. These advances make it possible to find more conservative classical tandem mirror fusion pilot plant operating points with lower temperatures, neutral beam energies, and end plug performance requirements than designs in the literature. Despite being more conservative, it is shown that these operating points have sufficient confinement performance to serve as the basis of a viable fusion pilot plant provided that they can be stabilized against MHD and trapped particle modes.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invertible neural networks for E3SM land model calibration and simulation

We apply an invertible neural network (INN) for E3SM land model calibration and simulation with eight parameters at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. INN provides bijective (two-way) mappings between inputs and outputs, thus it can solve probabilistic inverse problems and forward approximations simultaneously. We demonstrate INN's inverse and forward capability in both synthetic and real-data applications. Results indicate that INN produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling and it generates model outputs close to the forward model simulations. Additionally, both the inverse and forward evaluations in INN are computationally efficient which allows for rapid integration of observations for parameter estimation and fast model predictions.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2023

MOOSE: A Modular Platform for Fission and Fusion Multiphysics

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Framework, as well as MOOSE-based simulation tools, have accelerated the development of fission energy and advanced reactor technologies through the United States Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Science, Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling & Simulation (NEAMS) Program. MOOSE contains a complete platform of multiphysics simulation capabilities, capable of running on massively parallel systems, and is developed in an open-source manner with great attention paid to high-quality software quality assurance practices. This overall approach could greatly benefit the fusion energy community, which requires rapid design iteration and improvement in order to facilitate the successful development of fusion as an alternative energy source to fossil fuels. In the first half of this talk, applications of MOOSE and MOOSE-based tools for advanced reactor designs will be showcased, as well as MOOSE ecosystem infrastructure (such as the NEAMS Virtual Test Bed) that enables and accelerates fission reactor design. In the second half, a discussion of how the MOOSE approach to modeling and simulation is currently being applied internationally in fusion energy research and development at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority will be discussed, and ongoing/future domestic research efforts will be highlighted.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze large-scale wind patterns in California using model simulations from the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover historical (1980–2000), mid-century (2030–2050), and end-of-century (2080–2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within-clusters. Statistically significant capacity factors changes have been found at all five wind plant sites. Further, decomposition of the capacity factor changes into frequency changes and within-cluster changes enables a better understanding of their drivers. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, Mobility Modeling Framework (BEAM) v1.0

The Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility (BEAM) model is an integrated, agent-based travel demand simulation framework. Individual agents express preferences through a utility- maximizing evolutionary algorithm that minimizes each individual’s cost and time spent traveling via diverse modal options, including the competition for scarce supply resources such as parking spaces and charging infrastructure. BEAM simulates the essential elements that compose a dynamic transportation system. From the road network, parking and charging infrastructure, to the transit system and a synthetic population with plans and preferences, the virtual system is an amalgamation of multiple spatially resolved layers that together represent an integrated transportation system. BEAM is an extension to the MATSim (Multi-Agent Transportation Simulation) model, where agents employ reinforcement learning across successive simulated days to maximize their personal utility through plan mutation (exploration) and selecting between previously executed plans (exploitation). The BEAM model shifts some of the behavioral emphasis in MATSim from across-day planning to within- day planning, where agents dynamically respond to the state of the system during the mobility simulation. In BEAM, agents can plan across all major modes of travel including driving, walking, biking, transit, and demand-responsive ride hailing. It is designed to integrate with other open source transportation models, such as ActivitySim.

Lazarus, Jessica↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for Interstellar Medium Emission Line Models: Connecting Multiscale Simulations across Cosmological Volumes

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array have detected emission lines from the ionized interstellar medium (ISM) in some of the first galaxies at z ≳ 6. These measurements present an opportunity to better understand galaxy assembly histories and may allow important tests of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations. It is challenging, however, to model these lines in their proper cosmological context. In order to meet this challenge, we introduce a novel subgrid line emission modeling framework. The framework uses the high-z zoom-in simulation suite from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) collaboration. The line emission signals from H II regions within each simulated FIRE galaxy are modeled using the semianalytic HIIL INES code. A machine learning approach is then used to determine the conditional probability distribution for the line luminosity to stellar-mass ratio from the H II regions around each simulated stellar particle. This conditional probability distribution can then be applied to predict the line luminosities around stellar particles in lower-resolution, yet larger volume cosmological simulations. As an example, we apply this approach to the IllustrisTNG simulations at z = 6. The resulting predictions for the [O II ], [O III ], and Balmer line luminosities as a function of star formation rate agree well with current observations. Our predictions differ, however, from related works in the literature, which lack detailed subgrid ISM models. This highlights the importance of our multiscale simulation modeling framework. Finally, we provide forecasts for future line luminosity function measurements from the JWST and quantify the cosmic variance in such surveys.

(ISM:) H II regions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmarking performance changes in the simulation of extratropical modes of variability across CMIP generations

In this work, we evaluate extratropical modes of variability in the three most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, 5, and 6) to gauge improvement of climate models over time. A suite of high-level metrics is employed to objectively evaluate how well climate models simulate the qobserved Northern Annular Mode (NAM), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America pattern (PNA), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). We apply a Common Basis Function (CBF) approach that projects model anomalies onto observed empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), together with the traditional EOF approach, to CMIP Historical and AMIP models. We find simulated spatial patterns of those modes have been significantly improved in the newer models, although the skill improvement is sensitive to the mode and season considered. We identify some potential contributions to the pattern improvement of certain modes (e.g., the Southern Hemisphere jet and High-top vertical coordinate), however the performance changes are likely attributed to gradual improvement of the base climate and multiple relevant processes. Less performance improvement is evident in the mode amplitude of these modes and systematic overestimation of the mode amplitude in spring remains in the newer climate models. We find that the post-dominant season amplitude errors in atmospheric modes are not limited to coupled runs but are often already evident in AMIP simulations. This suggests that rectifying the egregious post-dominant season amplitude errors found in many models can be addressed in an atmospheric-only framework making it more tractable to address in the model development process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗