Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 685 records · Page 38

Modeling Temporal Processes in Early Spacecraft Design: Application of Discrete-Event Simulations for Darpa's F6 Program

While the ability to model the state of a space system over time is essential during spacecraft operations, the use of time-based simulations remains rare in preliminary design. The absence of the time dimension in most traditional early design tools can however become a hurdle when designing complex systems whose development and operations can be disrupted by various events, such as delays or failures. As the value delivered by a space system is highly affected by such events, exploring the trade space for designs that yield the maximum value calls for the explicit modeling of time.This paper discusses the use of discrete-event models to simulate spacecraft development schedule as well as operational scenarios and on-orbit resources in the presence of uncertainty. It illustrates how such simulations can be utilized to support trade studies, through the example of a tool developed for DARPA's F6 program to assist the design of "fractionated spacecraft".

trade space exploration↗

Vector boson dark matter from trinification

We show how trinification models based on the gauge group SU(3) C x SU(3) L x SU(3) R realized near the TeV scale can provide naturally a variety of dark matter (DM) candidates. These models contain a discrete T parity which may remain unbroken even after spontaneous symmetry breaking. The lightest T-odd particle, which could be a fermion, a scalar, or a gauge boson, can constitute the dark matter of the universe. This framework naturally admits a doublet-singlet fermionic DM, a singlet scalar DM, or a vector boson DM. Here we develop the vector boson DM scenario wherein the DM couples off-diagonally with the usual fermions and vector-like fermions present in the theory. We show consistency of this framework with dark matter relic abundance and direct detection limits as well as LHC constraints. We derive upper limits of 900 GeV on the vector gauge boson DM mass and 4.5 TeV on the vector-like quark masses. We also show the consistency of spontaneous gauge symmetry breaking down to Standard Model times an extra U(1) while preserving the T-parity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Accretion disks, quasars and cosmology: meandering towards understanding

Abstract As Setti and Woltjer noted back in 1973, one can use quasars to construct the Hubble diagram; however, the actual application of the idea was not that straightforward. It took years to implement the proposition successfully. Most ways to employ quasars for cosmology now require an advanced understanding of their structure, step by step. We briefly review this progress, with unavoidable personal biases, and concentrate on bright unobscured sources. We will mention the problem of the gas flow character close to the innermost stable circular orbit near the black hole, as discussed five decades ago. This problem later led to the development of the slim disk scenario and is recently revived in the context of Magnetically Arrested Disks (MAD) and Standard and Normal Evolution (SANE) models. We also discuss the hot or warm corona issue, which is still under debate and complicates the analysis of X-ray reflection. We present the scenario of the formation of the low ionization part of the Broad Line Region as a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on dust (Failed Radiatively Driven Dusty Outflow – FRADO). Next, we examine the cosmological constraints currently achievable with quasars, primarily concentrating on light echo methods (continuum time delays and spectral-line time delays to the continuum) that are (or should be) incorporating the progress mentioned above. Finally, we briefly discuss prospects in this lively subject area.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Carbon-Assisted, Continuous Syngas Production in a Chemical Looping Scheme

In the current energy and environment scenario, it is imperative to develop energy efficient routes for chemical manufacturing that also pave the way for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. This work presents an efficient pathway for continuous syngas production via a chemical looping conversion of the two most potent greenhouse gases—CH 4 , and CO 2 . The well-known dry-reforming process of converting CH 4 , and CO 2 to syngas is energy-intensive and suffers from catalyst deactivation. The chemical looping approach, on the other hand, provides avenues for mitigating catalyst deactivation and enabling improved energy efficiency. The key to such process enhancements lies in the intricate structure–function relationships of the catalyst and its correlation to the process variables. We present the reduction and oxidation characteristics of 5 wt.% Ni/Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 -based catalysts (x = 0, 0.4, and 0.625). We demonstrate low temperature CH4 activation over Ni-promoted samples as opposed to pure Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 . Moreover, our results depict an optimum regeneration of these catalysts when oxidized by CO 2 , and H 2 O, which allows for chemical looping operation of steam reforming of methane as well. Process variables were tuned to optimize the CH 4 conversion (over 80%), and H 2 /CO ratio at 650 °C. The critical surface reactions—carbon accumulation and gasification, and thermocatalytic CO 2 splitting were investigated to elucidate the dynamic nature of the catalyst surface. In conclusion, the impact of this work lies in showcasing the opportunities to design chemical looping reactors for energy efficient syngas production from waste greenhouse gases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Sensor impacts on building and HVAC controls: A critical review for building energy performance

Building operations rely heavily on control systems and sensors. This paper provides a sophisticated literature review on sensor systems in building/HVAC systems, particularly in the context of controls, and their impacts on energy efficiency and thermal comfort. This study aims to understand the previous and current research and identify future research opportunities on this subject. The reviewed sensor systems were used for heuristic rule-based controls, local controls, and advanced optimal controls for existing and emerging technologies. Five major aspects of sensors are reviewed here: control loops for sensors, sensor types, sensor locations, sensor data, and a sensor impact evaluation framework. To augment the literature review, comprehensive standardized interviews were also conducted with relevant industry experts and practitioners. These interviews were designed and performed to (1) identify significant factors for selecting sensor sets and current undergoing issues, (2) identify potential improvements in sensor configuration/deployment, and (3) integrate expert (e.g., researcher, building operation practitioner) knowledge and experiences to develop structured use-case scenarios. Researchers collected and analyzed 31 interview responses for this paper.

Building control↗

Simulation and power quality analysis of a Loose-Coupled bipolar DC microgrid in an office building

With distributed generation and battery storage technologies thriving in microgrids, the use of direct current (DC) microgrids in the building sector offers multiple advantages in energy efficiency and power quality compared with alternating current (AC) systems. This study developed a new concept of a loose-coupled bipolar DC building power system. In this work, the concept was used to design a real-world office building in Shenzhen, China. A power system model was developed to study the stability and control of the DC power system and to verify DC power quality. The design and modeling of the DC power control system is discussed in detail. The study developed a few common fault scenarios in DC building microgrids that were simulated in the MATLAB-Simulink environment to validate the design of a loose-coupled bipolar DC system. The results indicate that the proposed loose-coupled bipolar DC system schema, when implemented with proper control algorithms, can achieve good fault-tolerant performance with reliable power quality, even during disruptive system events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Investigation of enhanced CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers by WAG and brine extraction in the Minnelusa sandstone, Wyoming

Geological CO 2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers has been extendedly investigated to reach the goal of carbon neutral as large amount of CO 2 can be reduced in a short time. Here, this study investigates the feasibility of water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection and brine extraction on enhancing CO 2 storage in a target deep saline aquifer, Minnelusa Sandstone in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming. An integrated numerical model is developed to account for four scenarios: (1) CO 2 continuous injection (CI) through one injection well, (2) WAG injection through one injection well, (3) CO 2 CI through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer, (4) WAG injection through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer. Simulation results suggest that WAG injection and brine extraction corporately make it possible to enhance CO 2 injectivity while securing CO 2 storage safety. For instance, WAG injection considerably reduces structural trapping contribution while enhances dissolved and residual trapping contributions. As for brine extraction, it can decrease the maximum averaged reservoir pressure by 37% and 22% for CI and WAG injection, respectively. Besides, sensitive analyses of the operational parameters for the fourth scenarios are performed. Results reveal that, when the amount of total CO 2 injection has been predetermined, CO 2 injection time and rate within each period of WAG should be small whereas it is preferable to have large water injection time and rate. This is to secure desirable dissolved and residual trapping contributions (store CO 2 with safety). Sensitive degree results confirm that CO 2 injection rate, water injection time, and CO 2 injection time of WAG injection exhibit significant effects on CO 2 storage whereas the impacts of producer bottom-hole pressure (BHP), water injection rate, and CO 2 -water injection time are relatively weaker. This study not only sheds light on achieving double-win goal: enhance CO 2 injectivity and store CO 2 with safety, but also can be a critical reference for other CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗

A full-scope, high-fidelity simulator-based hardware-in-the-loop testbed for comprehensive nuclear power plant cybersecurity research

Nuclear power plant (NPP) cybersecurity research often relies on hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbeds that integrate real hardware components into simulated environments. These testbeds allow researchers to identify vulnerabilities, evaluate attack impacts, and test security measures in a controlled setting. Furthermore, previous HIL testbeds lacked fidelity to accurately represent real nuclear systems, limiting the scope of cybersecurity analysis. This study presents the creation of a HIL testbed, devised upon a full-scope, high-fidelity NPP simulator, to facilitate realistic and comprehensive cybersecurity research. To demonstrate its capabilities, the control logic for the steam generator water level was migrated from the simulator to an external programmable logic controller. As a practical application of the developed testbed, supply chain attack scenarios were simulated by injecting malicious code into the controller logic, and the effects of manipulating sensor inputs and control commands were observed. While this HIL testbed provides more detailed simulations, enhanced realism, and wider applicability compared to other options utilizing a less complex simulator, it is also more intricate and costly. For this reason, we include a detailed comparison with some alternative architectures to aid fellow researchers and practitioners in the selection of a suitable HIL architecture based on specific research objectives.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗

High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035

Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the coming year. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS)

Theoretical models of the co-evolution of galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGNs) ascribe an important role in the feedback process to a short, luminous, obscured, and dust-enshrouded phase during which the accretion rate of the supermassive black hole is expected to be at its maximum and the associated AGN-driven winds are also predicted to be maximally developed. Here, to test this scenario, we have isolated a textbook candidate from the eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS) obtained within the performance and verification program of the eROSITA telescope on board the Spectrum Röntgen Gamma mission. From an initial catalogue of 246 hard X-ray selected sources that are matched with the photometric and spectroscopic information available within the eROSITA and Hyper Suprime-Cam consortia, three candidates quasars in the feedback phase have been isolated applying a diagnostic proposed previously. Only one source (eFEDS J091157.4+014327) has a spectrum already available (from SDSS-DR16, z = 0.603) and it unambiguously shows abroad component (full width at half maximum ~1650 kms –1 ) in the [OIII]5007 line. The associated observed L [OIII] is ~2.6 × 10 42 erg s –1 , one to two orders of magnitude higher than that observed in local Seyfert galaxies and comparable to those observed in a sample of z ~ 0.5 type 1 quasars. From the multi-wavelength data available, we derive an Eddington ratio (L bol /L Edd ) of ~0.25 and a bolometric correction in the hard X-ray band of k bol ~ 10, which is lower than the corrections observed for objects at similar bolometric luminosity. These properties, along with the outflow, the high X-ray luminosity, the moderate X-ray obscuration (L X ~10 44.8 erg s –1 , N H ~2.7 × 10 22 cm –2 ), and the red optical colour, all match the prediction of quasars in the feedback phase from merger-driven models. Forecasting to the full eROSITA all-sky survey with its spectroscopic follow-up, we predict that by the end of 2024, we will have a sample of few hundred such objects at z= 0.5–2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utilizing a Virtual Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Digital Twin to Aid in Diversion Pathway Analysis for International Safeguards Applications

We report digital twin technology has the potential to improve the effectiveness of international safeguards inspectors by providing a tool which can: first, perform an accurate diversion path analysis, identify their indicators, and required sensors to detect them; and second, monitor facilities in real-time using critical data streams that benefit from this safeguards-by-design approach. Safeguards inspectors are required to visit facilities and verify the nuclear material to ensure no diversion has taken place and detect misuse of the facility; however, this analysis and verification effort is time consuming, and with limited funding it is imperative that time spent at a nuclear facility is focused on key areas. A virtual digital twin of three prototypic sodium fast reactors was developed, where diversion and misuse scenarios were explored to determine how a digital twin could provide inspectors with an understanding of how proliferation may occur and where the most likely areas for proliferation would be. For each of the three reactors, an optimization algorithm was able to find core designs which would be difficult to detect via sensors alone; however, the use of a machine learning adapter provided by the digital twin was able to show general trends in where proliferation as likely to take place.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) support national and international policy making for sustainable development. They rely on quantitative scenarios produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to assess alternative futures. IAM-based scenarios can provide a coherent assessment framework that integrates different subsystems and their interactions. However, these top-down approaches have limited ability to represent key local dynamics, unexpected events, or the role of diverse actors. Other methods, including participatory scenarios, can help co-create narratives that emphasize diverse contents with clear links to existing decision-making. However, these bottom-up approaches provide only limited insight into global processes and are not constrained by measurable parameters. In our review, we identify four key challenges for current GEA scenarios: surprise, scale, diversity and imagination. We illustrate how these challenges can be overcome by combining top-down and bottom-up scenario approaches and conclude with a call to action for future research to take on this trans-disciplinary challenge.

Pereira, Laura M.↗

Analysing the effects of heating and gas puffing in Proto-MPEX helicon and auxiliary heated plasmas

The Material Plasma Exposure Experiment (MPEX) is being constructed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to investigate critical fusion reactor issues, such as plasma–material interactions (PMIs) under reactor-relevant conditions and time scales. The linear device Proto-MPEX was used as a test bed to address anticipated research and development issues associated with heating scenarios and establish the physics basis for MPEX. The SOLPS-ITER code suite has been applied to understand plasma and neutral transport in Proto-MPEX and to increase confidence in predictive simulations for MPEX. Coupling between COMSOL and SOLPS is performed to implement a 2D electron heating profile of the helicon source. The simulations show reasonable agreement with the experimental data for plasma with helicon and auxiliary electron cyclotron heating (ECH). Both Bohm and constant diffusion (D$_\perp$: 0.5 m 2 s –1 and $\chi_\perp$: 1 m 2 s –1 ) simulations show similar levels of agreement with respect to the sparse experimental data available, assuming a few per cent impurity concentration. ECH significantly increases the target electron temperature, however, the target electron density is reduced compared to helicon-only heated plasmas due to an increase in flow velocity and radial losses. The simulations show that further increasing the ECH power results in an increase in the target electron density due to increased recycling flux and ionization. The results indicate that ECH significantly enhances the target heat flux, with ECH power of 50 kW increasing the target heat flux from 0.4 to 17 MW m –2 . It is found that a small amount of gas puffing (GP) near the target plate can further increase the target heat fluxes at the higher ECH power cases, but the target heat flux is reduced at higher GP conditions due to a significant reduction in electron temperature via radiation. ECH and GP scenarios can generate a higher target flux, facilitating improved PMI studies with more reactor-relevant plasma conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Benign termination of runaway electron beams on ASDEX Upgrade and TCV

Abstract This paper discusses the development of a benign termination scenario for runaway electron (RE) beams on ASDEX Upgrade and TCV. A systematic study revealed that a low electron density (n e ) companion plasma was required to achieve a large MHD instability, which expelled the confined REs over a large wetted area and allowed for the conversion of magnetic energy to radiation. Control of the companion plasma n e was achieved via neutral pressure regulation and was agnostic to material injection method. The neutral pressure required for recombination was found to be dependent on impurity species, quantity and RE current. On TCV,n e increased at neutral pressures above 1 Pa, indicating that higher collisionality between the REs and neutrals may lead to an upper pressure limit. The conversion of magnetic energy to radiated energy was measured on both machines and a decrease in efficiency was observed at high neutral pressure on TCV. The benign termination technique was able to prevent any significant increase in maximum heat flux on AUG from 200 to 600 kA of RE current, highlighting the ability of this approach to handle fully formed RE beams.

Physics↗